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USGS2022

Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES): Open-source spatial modeling of cultural services

Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES) version 4.0 is a fully open-source, GIS-based tool designed to aid in the creation of quantitative, spatially explicit models of the nonmonetary values attributed to cultural ecosystem services, such as aesthetics and recreation, specifically to facilitate their incorporation into larger ecosystem service assessments. Newly redeveloped for QGIS, SolVES can be applied in a wide variety of biophysical and social contexts including mountain, forest, coastal, riparian, agricultural, and urban settings worldwide. Redeveloping SolVES for an open-source platform was intended to expand its user base by eliminating the cost of proprietary GIS software licenses and to remove the impact of proprietary software changes on SolVES development. Providing additional options would enable users to delineate relevant stakeholder groups to better assess how differing preferences impact the intensity and spatial distribution of perceived social values.

Environmental Modelling & Software↗

USGS2016

Spatial and temporal trends of drought effects in a heterogeneous semi-arid forest ecosystem

Drought has long been recognized as a driving mechanism in the forests of western North America and drought-induced mortality has been documented across genera in recent years. Given the frequency of these events are expected to increase in the future, understanding patterns of mortality and plant response to severe drought is important to resource managers. Drought can affect the functional, physiological, structural, and demographic properties of forest ecosystems. Remote sensing studies have documented changes in forest properties due to direct and indirect effects of drought; however, few studies have addressed this at local scales needed to characterize highly heterogeneous ecosystems in the forest-shrubland ecotone. We analyzed a 22-year Landsat time series (1985–2012) to determine changes in forest in an area that experienced a relatively dry decade punctuated by two years of extreme drought. We assessed the relationship between several vegetation indices and field measured characteristics (e.g. plant area index and canopy gap fraction) and applied these indices to trend analysis to uncover the location, direction and timing of change. Finally, we assessed the interaction of climate and topography by forest functional type. The Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI), a measure of canopy water content, had the strongest correlation with short-term field measures of plant area index ( R 2 = 0.64) and canopy gap fraction ( R 2 = 0.65). Over the entire time period, 25% of the forested area experienced a significant ( p -value < 0.05) negative trend in NDMI, compared to less than 10% in a positive trend. Coniferous forests were more likely to be associated with a negative NDMI trend than deciduous forest. Forests on southern aspects were least likely to exhibit a negative trend while north aspects were most prevalent. Field plots with a negative trend had a lower live density, and higher amounts of standing dead and down trees compared to plots with no trend. Our analysis identifies spatially explicit patterns of long-term trends anchored with ground based evidence to highlight areas of forest that are resistant, persistent or vulnerable to severe drought. The results provide a long-term perspective for the resource management of this area and can be applied to similar ecosystems throughout western North America.

Colorado, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2018

Identifying optimal remotely-sensed variables for ecosystem monitoring in Colorado Plateau drylands

Water-limited ecosystems often recover slowly following anthropogenic or natural disturbance. Multitemporal remote sensing can be used to monitor ecosystem recovery after disturbance; however, dryland vegetation cover can be challenging to accurately measure due to sparse cover and spectral confusion between soils and non-photosynthetic vegetation. With the goal of optimizing a monitoring approach for identifying both abrupt and gradual vegetation changes, we evaluated the ability of Landsat-derived spectral variables to characterize surface variability of vegetation cover and bare ground across a range of vegetation community types. Using three year composites of Landsat data, we modeled relationships between spectral information and field data collected at monitoring sites near Canyonlands National Park, UT. We also developed multiple regression models to assess improvement over single variables. We found that for all vegetation types, percent cover bare ground could be accurately modeled with single indices that included a combination of red and shortwave infrared bands, while near infrared-based vegetation indices like NDVI worked best for quantifying tree cover and total live vegetation cover in woodlands. We applied four models to characterize the spatial distribution of putative grassland ecological states across our study area, illustrating how this approach can be implemented to guide dryland ecosystem management.

Colorado Plateau↗

USGS2017

Loss of ecosystem services due to chronic pollution of forests and surface waters in the Adirondack region (USA)

Sustaining recent progress in mitigating acid pollution could require lower emissions caps that will give rise to real or perceived tradeoffs between healthy ecosystems and inexpensive energy. Because most impacts of acid rain affect ecosystem functions that are poorly understood by policy-makers and the public, an ecosystem services (ES) framework can help to measure how pollution affects human well-being. Focused on the Adirondack region (USA), a global ‘hot-spot’ of acid pollution, we measured how the chronic acidification of the region's forests, lakes, and streams has affected the potential economic and cultural benefits they provide to society. We estimated that acid-impaired hardwood forests provide roughly half of the potential benefits of forests on moderate to well-buffered soils – an estimated loss of ∼ $10,000 ha −1 in net present value of wood products, maple syrup, carbon sequestration, and visual quality. Acidic deposition has had only nominal impact – relative to the effects of surficial geology and till depth – on the capacity of Adirondack lakes and streams to provide water suitable for drinking. However, as pH declines in lakes, the estimated value of recreational fishing decreases significantly due to loss of desirable fish such as trout. Hatchery stocking programs have partially offset the pollution-mediated losses of fishery value, most effectively in the pH range 4.8–5.5, but are costly and limited in scope. Although any estimates of the monetary ‘damages’ of acid rain have significant uncertainties, our findings highlight some of the more tangible economic and cultural benefits of pollution mitigation efforts, which continue to face litigation and political opposition.

New York↗

USGS2023

Learning from arid and urban aquatic ecosystems to inform more sustainable and resilient futures

The hydrology and aquatic ecology of arid environments has long been understudied relative to temperate regions. Yet spatially and temporally intermittent and ephemeral waters characterized by flashy hydrographs typify arid regions that comprise a substantial proportion of the Earth. Additionally, drought, intense storms, and human modification of landscapes increasingly affect many temperate regions, resulting in hydrologic regimes more similar to aridlands. Here we review the contributions of Dr. Nancy Grimm to aridland hydrology and ecology, and applications of these insights to urban ecosystems and resilience of social-ecological-technological systems. Grimm catalyzed study of nitrogen cycling in streams and characterized feedbacks between surface water-groundwater exchange, nitrogen transformations, and aquatic biota. In aridlands, outcomes of these interactions depend on short- and long-term variation in the hydrologic regime. Grimm and colleagues applied hydrological and biogeochemical insights gained from study of aridland streams to urban ecosystems, integrating engineering, social and behavioral sciences, and geography. These studies evolved from characterizing the spatial heterogeneity of urban systems (i.e., watersheds, novel aquatic systems) and its influence on nutrient dynamics to an approach that evaluated human decision-making as a driver of disturbance regimes and changes in ecosystem function. Finally, Grimm and colleagues have applied principles of urban ecology to look toward the future of cities, considering scenarios of sustainable and resilient futures. We identify cross-cutting themes and approaches that have motivated discoveries across Grimm’s multi-decadal career, including spatial and temporal heterogeneity, hydrologic connectivity and regime, disturbance, systems thinking, and resilience. Finally, we emphasize Grimm’s broad contributions to science via support of long-term research, dedication to mentoring, and extensive collaborations that facilitated transdisciplinary research.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2017

Ecosystem features determine seagrass community response to sea otter foraging

Comparing sea otter recovery in California (CA) and British Columbia (BC) reveals key ecosystem properties that shape top-down effects in seagrass communities. We review potential ecosystem drivers of sea otter foraging in CA and BC seagrass beds, including the role of coastline complexity and environmental stress on sea otter effects. In BC, we find greater species richness across seagrass trophic assemblages. Furthermore, Cancer spp. crabs, an important link in the seagrass trophic cascade observed in CA, are less common. Additionally, the more recent reintroduction of sea otters, more complex coastline, and reduced environmental stress in BC seagrass habitats supports the hypotheses that sea otter foraging pressure is currently reduced there. In order to manage the ecosystem features that lead to regional differences in top predator effects in seagrass communities, we review our findings, their spatial and temporal constraints, and present a social-ecological framework for future research.

British Columbia, California↗

USGS2020

Vegetation responses to Quaternary volcanic and hydrothermal disturbances in the Northern Rocky Mountains and Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (USA)

Volcanic and hydrothermal processes produce disturbances by diverse mechanisms and ecological responses are varied. New and published pollen records from the Northern Rocky Mountains and Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem document the response of vegetation to three different types of volcanic and hydrothermal disturbances: (1) Pleistocene rhyolite lava flows in the central Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem created infertile landscapes that have shaped vegetation since rhyolite emplacement. Nutrient-poor, well-drained soils that developed on these flows supported low-diversity grassland during late-glacial time and Pinus contorta forests in interglacial periods. (2) Ash layers from eruptions of Pacific Northwest stratovolcanoes are commonly preserved in lake-sediment records in the Northern Rocky Mountains, and associated pollen records show enhancement of steppe vegetation for years to decades. (3) Local hydrothermal explosions have resulted in vegetation changes in hydrothermal areas that indicate tree mortality following deposition of explosion debris, followed by recovery in years. Thus, the type and duration of the vegetation response to volcanic and hydrothermal disturbances are highly contextual and governed by the antecedent plant communities and the magnitude and mechanism of the volcanic or hydrothermal disturbance. Vegetation resilience varied between disturbances, ranging from enduring ecosystem parameter changes to short-lived state changes in resilient plant communities.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2014

Evaluating CO2 and CH4 dynamics of Alaskan ecosystems during the Holocene Thermal Maximum

The Arctic has experienced much greater warming than the global average in recent decades due to polar amplification. Warming has induced ecological changes that have impacted climate carbon-cycle feedbacks, making it important to understand the climate and vegetation controls on carbon (C) dynamics. Here we used the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM, 11–9 ka BP, 1 ka BP = 1000 cal yr before present) in Alaska as a case study to examine how ecosystem Cdynamics responded to the past warming climate using an integrated approach of combining paleoecological reconstructions and ecosystem modeling. Our paleoecological synthesis showed expansion of deciduous broadleaf forest (dominated by Populus ) into tundra and the establishment of boreal evergreen needleleaf and mixed forest during the second half of the HTM under a warmer- and wetter-than-before climate, coincident with the occurrence of the highest net primary productivity, cumulative net ecosystem productivity, soil C accumulation and CH 4 emissions. These series of ecological and biogeochemical shifts mirrored the solar insolation and subsequent temperature and precipitation patterns during HTM, indicating the importance of climate controls on C dynamics. Our simulated regional estimate of CH 4 emission rates from Alaska during the HTM ranged from 3.5 to 6.4 Tg CH 4 yr −1 and highest annual NPP of 470 Tg C yr −1 , significantly higher than previously reported modern estimates. Our results show that the differences in static vegetation distribution maps used in simulations of different time slices have greater influence on modeled C dynamics than climatic fields within each time slice, highlighting the importance of incorporating vegetation community dynamics and their responses to climatic conditions in long-term biogeochemical modeling.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

Assessing the role of climate and resource management on groundwater dependent ecosystem changes in arid environments with the Landsat archive

Groundwater dependent ecosystems (GDEs) rely on near-surface groundwater. These systems are receiving more attention with rising air temperature, prolonged drought, and where groundwater pumping captures natural groundwater discharge for anthropogenic use. Phreatophyte shrublands, meadows, and riparian areas are GDEs that provide critical habitat for many sensitive species, especially in arid and semi-arid environments. While GDEs are vital for ecosystem services and function, their long-term (i.e. ~ 30 years) spatial and temporal variability is poorly understood with respect to local and regional scale climate, groundwater, and rangeland management. In this work, we compute time series of NDVI derived from sensors of the Landsat TM, ETM +, and OLI lineage for assessing GDEs in a variety of land and water management contexts. Changes in vegetation vigor based on climate, groundwater availability, and land management in arid landscapes are detectable with Landsat. However, the effective quantification of these ecosystem changes can be undermined if changes in spectral bandwidths between different Landsat sensors introduce biases in derived vegetation indices, and if climate, and land and water management histories are not well understood. The objective of this work is to 1) use the Landsat 8 under-fly dataset to quantify differences in spectral reflectance and NDVI between Landsat 7 ETM + and Landsat 8 OLI for a range of vegetation communities in arid and semiarid regions of the southwestern United States, and 2) demonstrate the value of 30-year historical vegetation index and climate datasets for assessing GDEs. Specific study areas were chosen to represent a range of GDEs and environmental conditions important for three scenarios: baseline monitoring of vegetation and climate, riparian restoration, and groundwater level changes. Google's Earth Engine cloud computing and environmental monitoring platform is used to rapidly access and analyze the Landsat archive along with downscaled North American Land Data Assimilation System gridded meteorological data, which are used for both atmospheric correction and correlation analysis. Results from the cross-sensor comparison indicate a benefit from the application of a consistent atmospheric correction method, and that NDVI derived from Landsat 7 and 8 are very similar within the study area. Results from continuous Landsat time series analysis clearly illustrate that there are strong correlations between changes in vegetation vigor, precipitation, evaporative demand, depth to groundwater, and riparian restoration. Trends in summer NDVI associated with riparian restoration and groundwater level changes were found to be statistically significant, and interannual summer NDVI was found to be moderately correlated to interannual water-year precipitation for baseline study sites. Results clearly highlight the complementary relationship between water-year PPT, NDVI, and evaporative demand, and are consistent with regional vegetation index and complementary relationship studies. This work is supporting land and water managers for evaluation of GDEs with respect to climate, groundwater, and resource management.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

USGS2025

Streamflow regime characterization in the changing boreal ecosystem: Wildfire impacts from stream-to-regional scales

The boreal ecosystem has experienced significant changes over recent decades as wildfires become more frequent, intense, and severe. As streams are highly prevalent and ecologically relevant, understanding interactions among wildfire and hydrologic patterns is important for effective aquatic ecosystem management. This study used a Bayesian mixture model to classify streamflow regimes from modeled streamflow data for 32,730 stream reaches (totaling 295,880 km) across the Yukon and Kuskokwim basins and the Northwestern Boreal Ecosystem in Alaska, USA, and Yukon Territory, Canada. We assessed time since burn and calculated the total length of stream (km) within burn perimeters for each streamflow class from 1985 to 2015. Additionally, we used field observations (2018–2022) to compare streamflow regimes in four burned and four unburned headwater streams (drainage basins ≤150 km 2 ) in interior Alaska. Modeled stream reaches were grouped into twenty-two classes and reduced to eleven metaclasses based on similarities in streamflow statistics. These metaclasses formed two broad groups: 1) large rivers with lower variability and strong seasonal signals, and 2) mid- to small-sized tributaries with high variability, frequent high flow events, and weaker seasonal signals. The stream length burned analysis indicated an average increase of 47 km per year with first- and second-order streams experiencing more frequent fire. Empirical streamflow metrics from headwater stream gages revealed additional differences in streamflow patterns between burned and unburned streams. This streamflow classification establishes a baseline for understanding boreal stream responses to wildfire, detecting climate-induced regime shifts, and facilitating management and conservation of important boreal aquatic species.

Alaska↗

USGS2007

Heterogeneity of soil nutrients and subsurface biota in a dryland ecosystem

Dryland ecosystems have long been considered to have a highly heterogeneous distribution of nutrients and soil biota, with greater concentrations of both in soils under plants relative to interspace soils. We examined the distribution of soil resources in two plant communities (dominated by either the shrub Coleogyne ramosissima or the grass Stipa hymenoides) at two locations. Interspace soils were covered either by early successional biological soil crusts (BSCs) or by later successional BSCs (dominated by nitrogen (N)-fixing cyanobacteria and lichens). For each of the 8 plant type??crust type??locations, we sampled the stem, dripline, and 3 interspace distances around each of 3 plants. Soil analyses revealed that only available potassium (Kav) and ammonium concentrations were consistently greater under plants (7 of 8 sites and 6 of 8 sites, respectively). Nitrate and iron (Fe) were greater under plants at 4 sites, while all other nutrients were greater under plants at less than 50% of the sites. In contrast, calcium, copper, clay, phosphorus (P), and zinc were often greater in the interspace than under the plants. Soil microbial biomass was always greater under the plant compared to the interspace. The community composition of N-fixing bacteria was highly variable, with no distinguishable patterns among microsites. Bacterivorous nematodes and rotifers were consistently more abundant under plants (8 and 7 sites, respectively), and fungivorous and omnivorous nematodes were greater under plants at 5 of the 8 sites. Abundance of other soil biota was greater under plants at less than 50% of the sites, but highly correlated with the availability of N, P, Kav, and Fe. Unlike other ecosystems, the soil biota was only infrequently correlated with organic matter. Lack of plant-driven heterogeneity in soils of this ecosystem is likely due to (1) interspace soils covered with BSCs, (2) little incorporation of above-ground plant litter into soils, and/or (3) root deployment patterns. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Soil Biology and Biochemistry↗

USGS2018

Plant and microbial biomarkers suggest mechanisms of soil organic carbon accumulation in a Mojave Desert ecosystem under elevated CO2

We investigated how properties of soil organic matter (SOM) were altered after 10 years exposure to elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration ([CO 2 ]) in a Mojave Desert ecosystem, using plant and microbial biomarkers. We focused on roles of Larrea tridentata , the dominant evergreen shrub which form islands of fertility, and biological soil crusts which have extensive cover in plant interspace. Soils to 5 cm in depth were collected under L. tridentata and plant interspace, and biological soil crusts to 0.5 cm in depth under three cover types, Pleuraphis rigida , a C 4 grass, shrubs and plant interspace. Soil organic carboncontents were not significantly different between elevated and ambient [CO 2 ]. However, significantly higher abundance of n -alkanes, a major constituent of foliage wax material, occurred in the elevated compared to ambient [CO 2 ] plots in the soils collected under L. tridentata , but no such difference was found in the soils at plant interspace or the biological soil crusts. There was no significant difference in abundance of microbial phospholipid fatty acids between the CO 2 treatments in the soils of either cover types. However, neutral lipid fatty acid abundance was significantly higher under elevated than ambient [CO 2 ] in the soils under L. tridentata , whereas no such significant difference was observed at plant interspace. These results emphasize important roles of the dominant shrubs in SOM formation under elevated [CO 2 ] in arid ecosystems. Elevated [CO 2 ] stimulated growth of L. tridentata in wet years, and aboveground litter deposition via senescence contributed to SOM formation in islands of fertility. In addition, elevated [CO 2 ] stimulated soil microbial turnover rates in rhizosphere of L. tridentata , which left more soil microbial necromass, a major SOM source. We concluded that responses of dominant shrubs to elevated [CO 2 ] can stimulate SOM formation in arid ecosystems, but biological soil crusts may have limited capacity.

Soil Biology and Biochemistry↗

USGS2021

Climate and Ecological Disturbance Analysis of Engelmann spruce and Douglas fir in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

The effects of anthropogenic climate change are apparent in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), USA, with forest die-off, insect outbreaks, and wildfires impacting forest ecosystems. A long-term perspective would enable assessment of the historical range of variability in forest ecosystems and better determination of recent forest dynamics and historical thresholds. The objectives of this study were to (1) develop tree-ring chronologies for Engelmann spruce and Douglas fir growing at the study location, (2) correlate the annual ring widths of each species to monthly climate variables, (3) examine the instrumental climate data for regimes shifts in the mean state of variables, and (4) determine when ecological disturbances occurred through a quantification of growth releases. Finally, we discuss both climate-growth relationships and growth releases in the context of climate regime shifts and known forest disturbances. Engelmann spruce and Douglas fir showed some similar climate responses using moving correlation analysis including negative correlations between ring width and June – August current year temperature and previous growing season temperature. Regime shift analysis indicated significant ( p < 0.05) shifts in minimum and maximum GYE temperature in the latter half of the 20th century. Disturbance analysis indicated that both tree species responded to wildfire and insect outbreak events with growth releases in up to 25% of the trees. Disentangling the influence of climate regime shifts and forest disturbances on the climate-growth relationships can be difficult because climate and forest disturbances are intricately linked. Our evidence indicates that regime shifts in monthly climate variables and forest disturbances as recorded by growth releases can influence the ring width response to climate over time. Trees are key to providing a long-term perspective on climate and ecological health across the GYE because they integrate both climate and ecology in their annual ring widths.

Wyoming↗

USGS2019

Ecosystem function and services of aquatic predators in the Anthropocene

Arguments for the need to conserve aquatic predator (AP) populations often focuses on the ecological and socio-economic roles they play. Here, we summarize the diverse ecosystem functions and services connected to APs, including regulating food webs, cycling nutrients, engineering habitat, transmitting diseases/parasites, mediating ecological invasions, effecting climate, supporting fisheries, generating tourism, and providing bioinspiration. In some cases, human-driven declines and increases in AP populations have altered these ecosystem functions and services. We present a Social Ecological Framework for supporting adaptive management decisions involving APs in response to social and environmental change. We also identify outstanding questions to guide future research on the ecological functions and ecosystem services of APs in a changing world

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2003

Calibration of remotely sensed, coarse resolution NDVI to CO2 fluxes in a sagebrush–steppe ecosystem

The net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon flux can be partitioned into gross primary productivity (GPP) and respiration ( R ). The contribution of remote sensing and modeling holds the potential to predict these components and map them spatially and temporally. This has obvious utility to quantify carbon sink and source relationships and to identify improved land management strategies for optimizing carbon sequestration. The objective of our study was to evaluate prediction of 14-day average daytime CO 2 fluxes ( F day ) and nighttime CO 2 fluxes ( R n ) using remote sensing and other data. F day and R n were measured with a Bowen ratio–energy balance (BREB) technique in a sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.)–steppe ecosystem in northeast Idaho, USA, during 1996–1999. Micrometeorological variables aggregated across 14-day periods and time-integrated Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (iNDVI) were determined during four growing seasons (1996–1999) and used to predict F day and R n . We found that iNDVI was a strong predictor of F day ( R 2 =0.79, n =66, P <0.0001). Inclusion of evapotranspiration in the predictive equation led to improved predictions of F day ( R 2 =0.82, n =66, P <0.0001). Crossvalidation indicated that regression tree predictions of F day were prone to overfitting and that linear regression models were more robust. Multiple regression and regression tree models predicted R n quite well ( R 2 =0.75–0.77, n =66) with the regression tree model being slightly more robust in crossvalidation. Temporal mapping of F day and R n is possible with these techniques and would allow the assessment of NEE in sagebrush–steppe ecosystems. Simulations of periodic F day measurements, as might be provided by a mobile flux tower, indicated that such measurements could be used in combination with iNDVI to accurately predict F day . These periodic measurements could maximize the utility of expensive flux towers for evaluating various carbon management strategies, carbon certification, and validation and calibration of carbon flux models.

Idaho↗

USGS2001

. Ecological conceptual models: a framework and case study on ecosystem management for South Florida sustainability

The Everglades and South Florida ecosystems are the focus of national and international attention because of their current degraded and threatened state. Ecological risk assessment, sustainability and ecosystem and adaptive management principles and processes are being used nationally as a decision and policy framework for a variety of types of ecological assessments. The intent of this study is to demonstrate the application of these paradigms and principles at a regional scale. The effects-directed assessment approach used in this study consists of a retrospective, eco-epidemiological phase to determine the causes for the current conditions and a prospective predictive risk-based assessment using scenario analysis to evaluate future options. Embedded in these assessment phases is a process that begins with the identification of goals and societal preferences which are used to develop an integrated suite of risk-based and policy relevant conceptual models. Conceptual models are used to illustrate the linkages among management (societal) actions, environmental stressors, and societal/ecological effects, and provide the basis for developing and testing causal hypotheses. These models, developed for a variety of landscape units and their drivers, stressors, and endpoints, are used to formulate hypotheses to explain the current conditions. They are also used as the basis for structuring management scenarios and analyses to project the temporal and spatial magnitude of risk reduction and system recovery. Within the context of recovery, the conceptual models are used in the initial development of performance criteria for those stressors that are determined to be most important in shaping the landscape, and to guide the use of numerical models used to develop quantitative performance criteria in the scenario analysis. The results will be discussed within an ecosystem and adaptive management framework that provides the foundation for decision making.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2003

Mathematical modeling relevant to closed artificial ecosystems

The mathematical modeling of ecosystems has contributed much to the understanding of the dynamics of such systems. Ecosystems can include not only the natural variety, but also artificial systems designed and controlled by humans. These can range from agricultural systems and activated sludge plants, down to mesocosms, microcosms, and aquaria, which may have practical or research applications. Some purposes may require the design of systems that are completely closed, as far as material cycling is concerned. In all cases, mathematical modeling can help not only to understand the dynamics of the system, but also to design methods of control to keep the system operating in desired ranges. This paper reviews mathematical modeling relevant to the simulation and control of closed or semi-closed artificial ecosystems designed for biological production and recycling in applications in space. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Advances in Space Research↗

USGS2019

Surrogate rearing a keystone species to enhance population and ecosystem restoration

Translocation and rehabilitation programs are critical tools for wildlife conservation. These methods achieve greater impact when integrated in a combined strategy for enhancing population or ecosystem restoration. From 2002-2016, we reared 37 orphaned southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) pups, using captive sea otters as surrogate mothers, then released them into a degraded coastal estuary. As a keystone species, observed increases in the local sea otter population unsurprisingly brought many ecosystem benefits. The role that surrogate-reared otters played in this success story, however, remained uncertain. To resolve this question, we developed an individual-based model (IBM) of the local population using surveyed individual fates (survival and reproduction) of surrogate-reared and wild-captured otters, and modeled estimates of immigration. Estimates derived from a decade of population monitoring indicated that surrogate-reared and wild sea otters experienced similar reproductive and survival rates. This was true for males and females, across all ages (1-13 years) and locations evaluated. The IBM simulations indicated that reconstructed counts of the wild population are best explained by surrogate-reared otters combined with low levels of unassisted immigration. In addition, the model shows that 55% of observed population growth over this period is attributable to surrogate-reared otters and their wild progeny. Together, our results indicate that the integration of surrogacy methods and reintroduction of juvenile sea otters helped establish a biologically successful population and restore a once-impaired ecosystem.

California↗