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USGS2017

Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured inter-annual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including above-ground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2026

Precipitation intensity increased across the South Pacific Convergence Zone in the Industrial Age

The position, strength, and variability of precipitation in the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) remain challenging for coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models to represent, leaving future rainfall projections in this dynamically important region uncertain. Here, we present quantitative records of mean annual precipitation (MAP) spanning the past 1,000 years using sediment cores from five freshwater lakes on different islands in the western portion of the SPCZ. Precipitation reconstructions are based on the hydrogen isotope composition of the dinoflagellate biomarker dinosterol, which is inversely correlated with MAP. We show that MAP in the western tropical Pacific increased over the past ∼300 years, with a significant increase beginning in 1,820 ± 75 C.E., coincident with a warming trend in the Western Pacific Warm Pool. These results contrast with the expected drying associated with reduced Pacific Walker Circulation as global temperatures increase in many climate models. Future warming may promote more intense SPCZ precipitation.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2021

Holocene depositional history inferred from single-grain luminescence ages in southern California, North America

Significant sediment flux and deposition in a sedimentary system are influenced by climate changes, tectonics, lithology, and the sedimentary system's internal dynamics. Identifying the timing of depositional periods from stratigraphic records is a first step to critically evaluate the controls of sediment flux and deposition. Here, we show that ages of single-grain K-feldspar luminescence subpopulations may provide information on the timing of previous major depositional periods. We analyzed 754 K-feldspar single-grains from 17 samples from the surface to ∼9 m-depth in a trench located downstream of the Mission Creek catchment. Single-grain luminescence subpopulation ages significantly overlap at least eight times since ∼12.0 ka indicating a common depositional history. These depositional periods correspond reasonably well with the Holocene intervals of wetter than average climate conditions based on hydroclimatic proxies from nearby locations. Our findings imply a first-order climatic control on sediment depositional history in southern California on a millennial timescale.

California↗

USGS2014

Climatic and density influences on recruitment in an irruptive population of Roosevelt elk

Current paradigms of ungulate population ecology recognize that density-dependent and independent mechanisms are not always mutually exclusive. Long-term data sets are necessary to assess the relative strength of each mechanism, especially when populations display irruptive dynamics. Using an 18-year time series of population abundances of Roosevelt elk ( Cervus elaphus roosevelti ) inhabiting Redwood National Park in northwestern California we assessed the influence of population size and climatic variation on elk recruitment and whether irruptive dynamics occurred. An information-theoretic model selection analysis indicated that abundance lagged 2 years and neither climatic factors nor a mix of abundance and climatic factors influenced elk recruitment. However, density-dependent recruitment differed between when the population was declining and when the population increased and then stabilized at an abundance lower than at the start of the decline. The population displayed irruptive dynamics.

Journal of Mammalogy↗

USGS2025

Mapping ecological states in the upper Colorado River basin: Implications for fire management

Spatially explicit information on ecosystem dynamics that offers a mechanistic understanding of ecological processes can benefit environmental management. Broad-scale maps based on state-and-transition models provide valuable insight into transitions among ecological states resulting from specific drivers within areas sharing similar climatic and edaphic characteristics ecological sites (ES). We aimed to quantify ecological dynamics of two ES groups in the Upper Colorado River Basin from 1986 to 2022 through annual maps of ecological states and assess potential drivers of observed state change. This region comprises important sagebrush shrublands and pinyon-juniper woodlands affected by non-native annual grass invasion, wildfires, and drought-induced tree mortality. Using field-based and remote sensing data, we modeled vegetation states using random forest models and mapped the states annually from 1986 to 2022. To demonstrate the utility of the state maps for monitoring and management, we used this time series of maps to investigate the influences of fire and drought on state occurrence. Our findings revealed a statistically significant increase in states invaded by non-native annual species (Invaded state), which replaced Grassland and Shrubland states, while Shrubland states decreased significantly, transitioning to invaded and Woodland states. Invaded states had the highest likelihood of burning, followed by Woodlands. Drought was associated with increased area of Grassland and Bare states, but with decreased area of invaded and Shrubland states. These results indicate an accelerating fire cycle is potentially leading to ongoing regional environmental degradation. Despite increasing drought conditions during the study period, the invaded states continued to increase in area, indicating additional underlying mechanisms. Our reproducible, broad-scale, ecologically-driven state mapping process enhances understanding of how drought, fire, and invasion by non-native plants can transform semiarid landscapes of the western USA.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2024

Estimating the benefits of floodplain restoration to juvenile Chinook salmon in the upper San Francisco Estuary, United States, under future climate scenarios

Many river systems within the Central Valley of California have been disconnected from their floodplains, hypothesized to be partially responsible for declining Chinook salmon populations ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ). The primary floodplain of the system, Yolo By-Pass (known regionally as “Yolo Bypass”), offered an opportunity to examine whether improved connectivity between the floodplain and river could limit negative climate change effects on salmon populations. Specifically, the top of the floodplain (Fremont Weir) is being modified to provide Sacramento River Chinook salmon better access to floodplain rearing habitat. We estimated restoration effects on the Yolo By-Pass flood regime now and under future climate scenarios using flow rating curves. Additionally, we used temperature and flow-specific effects on Chinook salmon population dynamics within the Yolo By-Pass and Sacramento River complex to describe how the restoration project and climate change may interact to affect juvenile Chinook salmon biomass production. Our results indicate that the Fremont Weir restoration project will extend the frequency, timing, and duration of Yolo By-Pass flooding. Our production model indicates that the modification will result in greater salmon entrainment rates into the Yolo By-Pass, where salmon growth rates, survival rates, and biomass production were higher when compared to the Sacramento River main stem. The project appears to benefit all regional runs of Chinook salmon, which should help support life history diversity. Our results suggest that the weir modification should benefit native fish from the Central Valley that use floodplain habitat and that these benefits may be resilient to challenges created by a changing climate.

California↗

USGS2025

A landscape-scale view of soil organic matter dynamics

Soil carbon is an important component of the terrestrial carbon cycle and could be augmented through improved soil management to mitigate climate change. However, data gaps for numerous regions and a lack of understanding of the heterogeneity of biogeochemical processes across diverse soil landscapes hinder the development of large-scale representations of soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics. In this Perspective, we outline how understanding soil formation processes and complexity at the landscape scale can inform predictions of soil organic matter (SOM) cycling and soil carbon sequestration. Long-term alterations of the soil matrix caused by weathering and soil redistribution vary across climate zones and ecosystems, but particularly with the structure of landscapes at the regional scale. Thus, oversimplified generalizations that assume that the drivers of SOM dynamics can be scaled directly from local to global regimes and vice versa leads to large uncertainties in global projections of soil C stocks. Data-driven models with enhanced coverage of underrepresented regions, particularly where soils are physicochemically distinct and environmental change is most rapid, are key to understanding C turnover and stabilization at landscape scales to better predict global soil carbon dynamics.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment↗

USGS2025

Non-native prey availability and over-compensatory density dependence drive population dynamics of a native fish predator

Understanding the factors that regulate population dynamics is crucial for conserving imperiled species. Bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ), a piscivorous salmonid and one of North America's most threatened cold-water species, has declined significantly due to habitat loss, overfishing, invasive species, and climate change. While recovery efforts have primarily targeted these threats, the role of prey availability in influencing bull trout population dynamics under multiple stressors remains poorly understood. Using a stage-based integrated population model, we quantified the effects of non-native prey availability (kokanee; Oncorhynchus nerka ), angling pressure, climatic variation, and density-dependent processes on bull trout population dynamics in Lake Koocanusa, a transboundary reservoir and river system (United States and Canada), over a 40-year period (1980–2023). Our results show that bull trout populations are regulated by density-dependent processes, including over-compensation in sub-adult recruitment and reduced adult survival at high densities. Increased kokanee biomass and restricted harvest significantly enhanced bull trout survival and abundance, whereas reduced water availability had a limited negative effect on sub-adult production. Model simulations indicate that as kokanee biomass availability increases, the number of bull trout that can be sustainably harvested also increases. In fact, a modest annual fishery (300 individuals) can be sustained, especially under moderate to high kokanee biomass conditions. These results underscore the importance of prey availability, including non-native species, in supporting bull trout populations. Effective management of threatened apex fish predators like bull trout requires addressing the complex interplay between environmental threats, prey dynamics, and density-dependent mechanisms across all life stages.

British Columbia, Montana↗

USGS2005

Quaternary geomorphology and modern coastal development in response to an inherent geologic framework: An example from Charleston, South Carolina

Coastal landscapes evolve over wide-ranging spatial and temporal scales in response to physical and biological processes that interact with a wide range of variables. To develop better predictive models for these dynamic areas, we must understand the influence of these variables on coastal morphologies and ultimately how they influence coastal processes. This study defines the influence of geologic framework variability on a classic mixed-energy coastline, and establishes four categorical scales of spatial and temporal influence on the coastal system. The near-surface, geologic framework was delineated using high-resolution seismic profiles, shallow vibracores, detailed geomorphic maps, historical shorelines, aerial photographs, and existing studies, and compared to the long- and short-term development of two coastal compartments near Charleston, South Carolina. Although it is clear that the imprint of a mixed-energy tidal and wave signal (basin-scale) dictates formation of drumstick barriers and that immediate responses to wave climate are dramatic, island size, position, and longer-term dynamics are influenced by a series of inherent, complex near-surface stratigraphic geometries. Major near-surface Tertiary geometries influence inlet placement and drainage development (island-scale) through multiple interglacial cycles and overall channel morphology (local-scale). During the modern marine transgression, the halo of ebb-tidal deltas greatly influence inlet region dynamics, while truncated beach ridges and exposed, differentially erodable Cenozoic deposits in the active system influence historical shoreline dynamics and active shoreface morphologies (block-scale). This study concludes that the mixed-energy imprint of wave and tide theories dominates general coastal morphology, but that underlying stratigraphic influences on the coast provide site-specific, long-standing imprints on coastal evolution.

Journal of Coastal Research↗

USGS2005

Understanding the spatial heterogeneity of global environmental change in mountain regions

One of the challenges for global environmental change research is to understand how future climate changes will be expressed in mountain regions. The physiographic complexity of mountains creates environments that can be highly variable over relatively short distances. This spatial heterogeneity reflects a hierarchy of environmental controls. At regional scales, insolation and atmospheric circulation features determine the dominant regional climate patterns that affect mountain regions. At finer spatial scales, substrate, aspect, elevation, and a number of other environmental factors influence ecosystem dynamics. Vegetation, for example, is affected by all levels of this hierarchy, from regional-scale climate regimes down to site-specific features, such as substrate type (cf. Körner, this volume).

western United States↗

USGS2021

The Holocene dynamics of Ryder Glacier and ice tongue in north Greenland

The northern sector of the Greenland Ice Sheet is considered to be particularly susceptible to ice mass loss arising from increased glacier discharge in the coming decades. However, the past extent and dynamics of outlet glaciers in this region, and hence their vulnerability to climate change, are poorly documented. In the summer of 2019, the Swedish icebreaker Oden entered the previously unchartered waters of Sherard Osborn Fjord, where Ryder Glacier drains approximately 2 % of Greenland's ice sheet into the Lincoln Sea. Here we reconstruct the Holocene dynamics of Ryder Glacier and its ice tongue by combining radiocarbon dating with sedimentary facies analyses along a 45 km transect of marine sediment cores collected between the modern ice tongue margin and the mouth of the fjord. The results illustrate that Ryder Glacier retreated from a grounded position at the fjord mouth during the Early Holocene ( > 10.7±0.4 ka cal BP) and receded more than 120 km to the end of Sherard Osborn Fjord by the Middle Holocene ( 6.3±0.3 ka cal BP), likely becoming completely land-based. A re-advance of Ryder Glacier occurred in the Late Holocene, becoming marine-based around 3.9±0.4 ka cal BP. An ice tongue, similar in extent to its current position was established in the Late Holocene (between 3.6±0.4 and 2.9±0.4 ka cal BP) and extended to its maximum historical position near the fjord mouth around 0.9±0.3 ka cal BP. Laminated, clast-poor sediments were deposited during the entire retreat and regrowth phases, suggesting the persistence of an ice tongue that only collapsed when the glacier retreated behind a prominent topographic high at the landward end of the fjord. Sherard Osborn Fjord narrows inland, is constrained by steep-sided cliffs, contains a number of bathymetric pinning points that also shield the modern ice tongue and grounding zone from warm Atlantic waters, and has a shallowing inland sub-ice topography. These features are conducive to glacier stability and can explain the persistence of Ryder's ice tongue while the glacier remained marine-based. However, the physiography of the fjord did not halt the dramatic retreat of Ryder Glacier under the relatively mild changes in climate forcing during the Holocene. Presently, Ryder Glacier is grounded more than 40 km seaward of its inferred position during the Middle Holocene, highlighting the potential for substantial retreat in response to ongoing climate change.

Ryder Glacier↗

USGS2013

Introduction to the special issue on “Understanding and predicting change in the coastal ecosystems of the northern Gulf of Mexico”

The coastal region of the northern Gulf of Mexico owes its current landscape structure to an array of tectonic, erosional and depositional, climatic, geochemical, hydrological, ecological, and human processes that have resulted in some of the world's most complex, dynamic, productive, and threatened ecosystems. Catastrophic hurricane landfalls, ongoing subsidence and erosion exacerbated by sea-level rise, disintegration of barrier island chains, and high rates of wetland loss have called attention to the vulnerability of northern Gulf coast ecosystems, habitats, built infrastructure, and economy to natural and anthropogenic threats. The devastating hurricanes of 2005 (Katrina and Rita) motivated the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Geology Program and partnering researchers to pursue studies aimed at understanding and predicting landscape change and the associated storm hazard vulnerability of northern Gulf coast region ecosystems and human communities. Attaining this science goal requires increased knowledge of landscape evolution on geologic, historical, and human time scales, and analysis of the implications of such changes in the natural and built components of the landscape for hurricane impact susceptibility. This Special Issue of the Journal of Coastal Research communicates northern Gulf of Mexico research results that (1) improve knowledge of prior climates and depositional environments, (2) assess broad regional ecosystem structure and change over Holocene to human time scales, (3) undertake process studies and change analyses of dynamic landscape components, and (4) integrate framework, climate, variable time and spatial scale mapping, monitoring, and discipline-specific process investigations within interdisciplinary studies.

Journal of Coastal Research↗

USGS2024

Assessing the sustainability of Pacific walrus harvest in a changing environment

Harvest sustainability is a primary goal of wildlife management and conservation, and in a changing world, it is increasingly important to consider environmental drivers of population dynamics alongside harvest in cohesive management plans. This is particularly pertinent for harvested species that acutely experience effects of climate change. The Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ), a crucial subsistence resource for Indigenous communities, is simultaneously subject to rapid habitat loss associated with diminishing sea ice and an increasing anthropogenic footprint in the Arctic. We developed a theta-logistic population modeling-management framework to evaluate various harvest scenarios combined with 4 potential climate and disturbance scenarios (ranging from optimistic to pessimistic, based largely on sea ice projections from general circulation models) to simulate Pacific walrus population dynamics to the end of the twenty-first century, focusing on the independent-aged female subset of the population. We considered 2 types of harvest strategies: 1) state-dependent harvest scenarios wherein we calculated harvest as a percentage of the population and updated annual harvests at set intervals as the population was reassessed, and 2) annually consistent harvest scenarios wherein annual harvest levels remain consistent into the future. All climate and disturbance scenarios indicated declines of varying severity in Pacific walrus abundance to the end of the twenty-first century, even in the absence of harvest. However, we found that a state-dependent annual harvest of 1.23% of the independent-aged female subset of the population (e.g., 1,280 independent-aged females harvested in 2020, similar to contemporary harvest levels) met our criterion for sustainability under all climate and disturbance scenarios, considering a medium risk tolerance level of 25%. This indicates that the present rate of Pacific walrus harvest is sustainable and will continue to be—provided the population is assessed at regular intervals and harvest is adapted to match changes in population dynamics. Our simulations indicate that a sustainable annually-consistent harvest is also possible but only at low levels if the population declines as expected. Applying a constant annual harvest of 1,280 independent-aged females failed to meet our criterion for sustainability under 3 of the 4 climate and disturbance scenarios we evaluated and had a higher probability of quasi-extinction than an equivalent state-dependent harvest scenario (1.23%). We highlight the importance of state-dependent management strategies and suggest our modeling framework is useful for managing harvest sustainability in a changing climate.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2020

Gaps and hotspots in the state of knowledge of pinyon-juniper communities

Pinyon-juniper (PJ) plant communities cover a large area across North America and provide critical habitat for wildlife, biodiversity and ecosystem functions, and rich cultural resources. These communities occur across a variety of environmental gradients, disturbance regimes, structural conditions and species compositions, including three species of juniper and two species of pinyon. PJ communities have experienced substantial changes in recent decades and identifying appropriate management strategies for these diverse communities is a growing challenge. Here, we surveyed the literature and compiled 441 studies to characterize patterns in research on PJ communities through time, across geographic space and climatic conditions, and among focal species. We evaluate the state of knowledge for three focal topics: 1) historical stand dynamics and responses to disturbance, 2) land management actions and their effects, and 3) potential future responses to changing climate. We identified large and potentially important gaps in our understanding of pinyon-juniper communities both geographically and topically. The effect of drought on Pinus edulis, the pinyon pine species in eastern PJ communities was frequently addressed, while few studies focused on drought effects on Pinus monophylla , which occurs in western PJ communities. The largest proportion of studies that examined land management actions only measured their effects for one year. Grazing was a common land-use across the geographic range of PJ communities yet was rarely studied. We found only 39 studies that had information on the impacts of anthropogenic climate change and most were concentrated on Pinus edulis . These results provide a synthetic perspective on PJ communities that can help natural resource managers identify relevant knowledge needed for decision-making and researchers design new studies to fill important knowledge gaps.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗

USGS2011

Quantifying the hydrological responses to climate change in an intact forested small watershed in southern China

Responses of hydrological processes to climate change are key components in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. Understanding these responses is critical for developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies for sustainable water resources management and protection of public safety. However, these responses are not well understood and little long-term evidence exists. Herein, we show how climate change, specifically increased air temperature and storm intensity, can affect soil moisture dynamics and hydrological variables based on both long-term observation and model simulations using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in an intact forested watershed (the Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve) in Southern China. Our results show that, although total annual precipitation changed little from 1950 to 2009, soil moisture decreased significantly. A significant decline was also found in the monthly 7-day low flow from 2000 to 2009. However, the maximum daily streamflow in the wet season and unconfined groundwater tables have significantly increased during the same 10-year period. The significant decreasing trends on soil moisture and low flow variables suggest that the study watershed is moving towards drought-like condition. Our analysis indicates that the intensification of rainfall storms and the increasing number of annual no-rain days were responsible for the increasing chance of both droughts and floods. We conclude that climate change has indeed induced more extreme hydrological events (e.g. droughts and floods) in this watershed and perhaps other areas of Southern China. This study also demonstrated usefulness of our research methodology and its possible applications on quantifying the impacts of climate change on hydrology in any other watersheds where long-term data are available and human disturbance is negligible.

Guangdong Province↗

USGS2006

Flood pattern and weather determine Populus leaf litter breakdown and nitrogen dynamics on a cold desert floodplain

Patterns and processes involved in litter breakdown on desert river floodplains are not well understood. We used leafpacks containing Fremont cottonwood ( Populus deltoides subsp. wislizenii ) leaf litter to investigate the roles of weather and microclimate, flooding (immersion), and macroinvertebrates on litter organic matter (OM) and nitrogen (N) loss on a floodplain in a cool-temperate semi-arid environment (Yampa River, northwestern Colorado, USA). Total mass of N in fresh autumn litter fell by ∼20% over winter and spring, but in most cases there was no further N loss prior to termination of the study after 653 days exposure, including up to 20 days immersion during the spring flood pulse. Final OM mass was 10–40% of initial values. The pattern of OM and N losses suggested most N would be released outside the flood season, when retention within the floodplain would be likely. The exclusion of macroinvertebrates modestly reduced the rate of OM loss (by about 10%) but had no effect on N dynamics over nine months. Immersion in floodwater accelerated OM loss, but modest variation in litter quality did not affect the breakdown rate. These results are consistent with the concept that decomposition on desert floodplains progresses much as does litter processing in desert uplands, but with periodic bouts of processing typical of aquatic environments when litter is inundated by floodwaters. The strong dependence of litter breakdown rate on weather and floods means that climate change or river flow management can easily disrupt floodplain nutrient dynamics.

Journal of Arid Environments↗

USGS2024

Middle-late Holocene paleolimnological changes in central Lake Tanganyika: Integrated evidence from the Kavala Island Ridge (Tanzania)

Middle and Late Holocene sediments have not been extensively sampled in Lake Tanganyika, and much remains unknown about the response of the Rift Valley’s largest lake to major environmental shifts during the Holocene, including the termination of the African Humid Period (AHP). Here, we present an integrated study (sedimentology, mineralogy, and geochemistry) of a radiocarbon-dated sediment core from the Kavala Island Ridge (KIR) that reveals paleoenvironmental variability in Lake Tanganyika since the Middle Holocene with decadal to centennial resolution. Massive blue-gray sandy silts represent sediments deposited during the terminal AHP (~5880–4640 cal yr BP), with detrital particle size, carbon concentrations, light stable isotopes, and mineralogy suggesting an influx of river-borne soil organic matter and weathered clay minerals to the lake at that time. Enhanced by the AHP’s warm and wet conditions, chemical weathering and erosion of Lake Tanganyika’s watershed appears to have promoted considerable nutrient recharge to the lake system. Following a relatively gradual termination of the AHP over the period from ~4640 cal yr BP to ~3680 cal yr BP, laminated and organic carbon-rich sediments began accumulating on the KIR. δ 15 N bulk , C/N, and hydrogen index data suggest high relative primary production from a mix of algae and cyanobacteria, most likely in response to nutrient availability in the water column under a cooler and seasonally dry climate from ~3680 to 1100 cal yr BP. Sediments deposited during the Common Era show considerable variability in magnetic susceptibility, total organic carbon content, carbon isotopes, and C/N, consistent with dynamic hydroclimate conditions that affected the depositional patterns, including substantial changes around the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age. Data from this study highlight the importance of sedimentary records to constrain boundary conditions in hydroclimate and nutrient flux that can inform long-term ecosystem response in Lake Tanganyika.

Kavala Island Ridge, Lake Tanganyika↗

USGS2023

A Great Escape: Resource availability and density-dependence shape population dynamics along trailing range edges

Populations along geographical range limits are often exposed to unsuitable climate and low resource availability relative to core populations. As such, there has been a renewed focus on understanding the factors that determine range limits to better predict how species will respond to global change. Using recent theory on range limits and classical understanding of density dependence, we evaluated the influence of resource availability on the snowshoe hare Lepus americanus along its trailing range edge. We estimated variation in population density, habitat use, survival, and parasite loads to test the Great Escape Hypothesis (GEH), i.e. that density dependence determines, in part, a species' persistence along trailing edges. We found that variability in resource availability affected density and population fluctuations and led to trade-offs in survival for snowshoe hare populations in the northeastern USA. Hares living in resource-limited environments had lower and less variable population density, yet higher survival and lower parasitism compared to populations living in resource-rich environments. We suggest that density-dependent dynamics, elicited by resource availability, provide hares a unique survival advantage and partly explain persistence along their trailing edge. We hypothesize that this low-density escape from predation and parasitism occurs for other prey species along trailing edges, but the extent to which it occurs is likely conditional on the quality of matrix habitat. Our work indicates that biotic factors play an important role in shaping species' trailing edges and more detailed examination of non-climatic factors is warranted to better inform conservation and management decisions.

New Hampshire, Vermont↗