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At least 541 records · Page 30Linked to original sources
USGS1987

Analysis and interpretation of water-quality trends in major U.S. rivers, 1974-81

Water-quality records from two nationwide sampling networks are now of sufficient length to permit nationally consistent analysis of long-term water-quality trends at more than 300 locations on major U.S. rivers. Observed trends in 24 water-quality measures for the period 1974--81 provide evidence of both improvement and deterioration in stream quality during a time of major changes in atmospheric and terrestrial influences on surface waters. Particularly noteworthy are widespread decreases in lead and fecal bacteria concentrations and widespread increases in nitrate, arsenic, and cadmium concentrations. Changes in municipal waste treatment, leaded-gasoline consumption, highway-salt use, and nitrogen-fertilizer application, and regionally variable trends in coal production and combustion during the period, appear to be reflected in water-quality changes. There is evidence that atmospheric deposition of a variety of substances has played a surprisingly large role in water-quality changes.

Water Supply Paper↗
USGS2015

Evapotranspiration trends over the eastern United States during the 20th century

Most models evaluated by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate change estimate projected increases in temperature and precipitation with rising atmospheric CO 2 levels. Researchers have suggested that increases in CO 2 and associated increases in temperature and precipitation may stimulate vegetation growth and increase evapotranspiration (ET), which acts as a cooling mechanism, and on a global scale, may slow the climate-warming trend. This hypothesis has been modeled under increased CO 2 conditions with models of different vegetation-climate dynamics. The significance of this vegetation negative feedback, however, has varied between models. Here we conduct a century-scale observational analysis of the Eastern US water balance to determine historical evapotranspiration trends and whether vegetation greening has affected these trends. We show that precipitation has increased significantly over the twentieth century while runoff has not. We also show that ET has increased and vegetation growth is partially responsible.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2018

Comparison of estimators for monitoring long-term population trends in deer mice, Peromyscus maniculatus, on the California Channel Islands

Capture-recapture methods are commonly used to estimate abundance and density of wild animal populations. Although a variety of sophisticated analytical techniques are available to evaluate capture-recapture data, vertebrate monitoring programs often lack the resources (e.g., time, personnel, and/or analytical expertise) to apply these methods. As an alternative, simple population indices, such as counts of unique individuals, may provide sufficient information to detect meaningful changes in population size. In this study we investigated whether a population index, easily generated from mark-recapture data under all conditions, might be used to provide valid ecological information for managers interested in long-term population trends of deer mice ( Peromyscus maniculatus ) on the California Channel Islands. In practice, determining the efficacy of estimating abundance from mark-recapture data and indices using empirical data (as opposed to simulated data) is difficult given the scarcity of long-term data sets that describe real populations. Using mark-recapture data that span 18 years ( n = 122 trapping events, >12,000 marked individuals) for deer mice on 2 of the islands, we compared density estimates obtained from several commonly used mark-recapture models and also compared these estimates to index counts. Populations of island deer mice are extremely dynamic; estimated densities over the data period varied from 0 to >1200 mice/ha. Density estimates from models in program CAPTURE and program DENSITY, as well as from model-averaged Huggins models, were strongly correlated with each other and with the density index. Densities calculated by the models and the index showed similar patterns of population variation and trend over time for all 5 sites. For long-term population monitoring and assessment of population trends in deer mice, our findings suggest that the use of a simple index may provide adequate understanding of ecologically relevant population changes, though data collection methods that allow for more detailed analyses using advanced modeling techniques should be maintained.

California↗
USGS1988

New trend- trigonometric model for interpolation and prediction of the geomagnetic field utilizing the new DGRF models

At the IUGG Assembly at Vancouver during August 1987 new definitive geomagnetic reference field (DGRF) models to degree 10 for 1945, 1950, 1955, and 1960 were adopted by IAGA. Before these new DGRF models were accepted, the author developed a trend and trigonometric model (old trig model) based on the models IGRF 1945, IGRF 1950, IGRF 1955, IGRF 1960, DGRF 1965, DGRF 1970, DGRF 1975, DGRF 1980, and IGRF 1985, which were all approved by IAGA in Prague in August 1985. The old trig model consists of 720 trend and trigonometric coefficients for the calculation of spherical harmonic coefficients (SHC) only to degree eight because the early IGRF models were truncated there. These trend and Fourier sine coefficients can replace the equal number of SHC contained in the 9 DGRF-IGRF models.

Journal of Geomagnetism & Geoelectricity↗
USGS2015

Post-White-nose syndrome trends in Virginia’s cave bats, 2008-2013

Since its 2009 detection in Virginia hibernacula, the fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans causing White-nose Syndrome (WNS) has had a marked impact on cave bats locally. From 2008-2013, we documented numeric and physiologic changes in cave bats through fall swarm (FS), early hibernation (EH), and late hibernation (LH) capture and banding surveys at 18 hibernacula in western Virginia. We coupled active surveys with passive biennial winter counts in 2009, 2011, and 2013. We compared individual body mass index (BMI) across years for FS, EH, and LH hibernation to determine if WNS impacts on extant bats would be manifested by changes in body condition (as anecdotally observed elsewhere for WNS-impacted bats) as well as a population reduction. To estimate percent declines in bat presence or relative activity, we used FS capture per-unit-effort data, and the winter hibernacula absolute counts. We captured 4,524 bats of eight species, with species-specific capture success declining by 75-100% post-WNS. Little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus) exhibited the greatest declines in winter hibernacula counts (AVG. = 99.0% decline), followed by tri-colored bats (Perimyotis subflavus; 89.5% decline) and Indiana bats (M. sodalis; 33.5% decline). Graphical analyses of captures-per-trap-hour in FS showed declines for little brown bats, tri-colored bats, and northern long-eared bats (M. septentrionalis), but suggest a modest rebound of Indiana bat numbers. Fall swarm trends in BMI suggested some drops post-WNS exposure, but these trends were not consistent across sexes or seasonal time blocks. Our inconclusive BMI metrics and little brown bat band recapture data suggest little competitive advantage or selection for surviving bats. Lesser (but apparent) declines in Indiana bat numbers mirrors trends seen elsewhere regionally, and band recoveries do show that some individuals are persisting. Additional surveys will determine if bats in Virginia will persist or face extirpation due to presumed low recruitment and survivorship.

Virginia↗
USGS1995

Population trends from the North American Breeding Bird Survey

INTRODUCTION: Most Neotropical migrant birds are difficult to count accurately and are moderately common over large breeding distributions. Consequently, little historical information exists on their large-scale population changes, and most of this information is anecdotal. Surveys begun in this century such as Breeding Bird Censuses and Christmas Bird Counts have the potential to provide this information, but only the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) achieves the extensive continental coverage necessary to document population changes for most Neotropical migrant birds. Conservationists and ecologists have begun to use BBS data to estimate population trends, but there is still widespread confusion over exactly what these data show regarding population changes. In this chapter, we review the current state of knowledge regarding population changes in Neotropical migrant birds and the methods used to analyze these changes. The primary emphasis is on the BBS (Robbins et al. 1986) because this survey provides the best available data for estimating trends of Neotropical migrants on a continental scale. To address questions about methods of analyzing survey data, we review and compare some alternative methods of analyzing BBS data. We also discuss the effectiveness of the BBS in sampling Neotropical migrant species, and review possibilities for use of alternative data sets to verify trends from the BBS.

Book chapter↗
USGS1995

Residues and trends of organochlorine pesticide and polychlorinated biphenyls in birds from Texas, 1965-88

Concentrations of DDE (a metabolite of DDT) in birds decreased during recent years in most areas of the continental United States. Organochlorine pesticides were widely used in agriculture in Texas from the early 1950s to the 1970s. I used previously published data to determine whether concentrations of DDE and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in birds from Texas have followed a decreasing trend similar to that in birds from other areas in the United States. A total of 2,669 bird samples was collected between 1965 and 1988 from diverse locations in Texas and was analyzed for organochlorines and other environmental contaminants. The brown pelican ( Pelecanus occidentalis ), peregrine falcon ( Falco peregrinus ), laughing gull ( Larus atricilla ), black skimmer ( Rynchops niger ), and European starling ( Sturnus vulgaris ) were the most frequently studied species. DDE and PCBs were the most commonly detected organochlorines in bird tissues. Mean DDE concentrations ranged from 0.4 to 61.00 parts per million (ppm) wet weight (ww) and PCBs from 0.02 to 32.00 ppm ww. Concentrations of DDE in eggs and carcasses of black skimmers decreased significantly during 1970-84 and dropped from approximately 10 to nearly 3 ppm ww. PCBs decreased from approximately 7 ppm ww to 1 ppm ww in eggs and carcasses. DDE concentrations in eggs of brown pelicans varied from more than 3 ppm ww in 1970 to approximately 1 ppm ww in 1983; and PCB concentrations diminished from about 10 to 1 ppm ww. Decreasing trends in concentrations of DDE and PBCs were observed in most species, although in some cases, the estimated trends were not significantly different from zero. Concentrations of DDE in birds from the Texas coast decreased from more than 6.0 ppm in 1978 to below 0.5 ppm in 1985. The decreasing ratios in selected species varied from approximately 2.0 to 12.0 (DDE) and from 4.5 to 9.0 (PCBs). The results indicate that in general from 1965 to 1988, DDE and PCBs declined in birds from Texas.

Texas↗
USGS1988

Decline in long-term growth trends of white oak

Quercus alba tree-ring collections from 89 locations throughout much of its range, from Connecticut to North Carolina to Iowa, were examined for evidence of growth decline initiated in the 1950s. The expected trend of annual basal area increments, based on pre-1950 growth, appears to be linear, with the slope varying among collections relative to site quality. Growth decline, defined as departure of actual growth below that expected, was identified in 40 to 60 collections judged to have not been affected by local site histories. The percentage of collections showing decline was essentially the same in the Northeast, the Midwest and the Southeast. Onset of decline began during a relatively narrow time window from the mid-1950's to the early 1960's. Since then the growth trend has been linear and appears unrelated to changes in regional sulfur and nitrogen oxide emissions. Events or conditions, unique to the 1950's, initiated a growth rate change in c 2/3 of the stands examined. Initiation of the decline appears to be unrelated to tree age, geographic location, site quality, climatic trends, or regional emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides. -from Authors

Canadian Journal of Forest Research↗
USGS1999

Pesticides in stream sediment and aquatic biota: distribution, trends, and governing factors

More than 20 years after the ban of DDT and other organochlorine pesticides, pesticides continue to be detected in air, rain, soil, surface water, bed sediment, and aquatic and terrestrial biota throughout the world. Recent research suggests that low levels of some of these pesticides may have the potential to affect the development, reproduction, and behavior of fish and wildlife, and possibly humans. Pesticides in Stream Sediment and Aquatic Biota: Distribution, Trends, and Governing Factors assesses the occurrence and behavior of pesticides in bed sediment and aquatic biota-the two major compartments of the hydrologic system where organochlorine pesticides are most likely to accumulate. This book collects, for the first time, results from several hundred monitoring studies and field experiments, ranging in scope from individual sites to the entire nation. Comprehensive tables provide concise summaries of study locations, pesticides analyzed, and study outcomes. Comprehensive and extensively illustrated, Pesticides in Stream Sediment and Aquatic Biota: Distribution, Trends, and Governing Factors evaluates the sources, environmental fate, geographic distribution, and long-term trends of pesticides in bed sediment and aquatic biota. The book focuses on organochlorine pesticides, but also assesses the potential for currently used pesticides to be found in bed sediment and aquatic biota. Topics covered in depth include the effect of land use on pesticide occurrence, mechanisms of pesticide uptake and accumulation by aquatic biota, and the environmental significance of observed levels of pesticides in stream sediment and aquatic biota.

Book↗
USGS2012

Status and trends of the land bird avifauna on Tinian and Aguiguan, Mariana Islands

Avian surveys were conducted on the islands of Tinian and Aguiguan, Marianas Islands, in 2008 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to provide current baseline densities and abundances and assess population trends using data collected from previous surveys. On Tinian, during the three surveys (1982, 1996, and 2008), 18 species were detected, and abundances and trends were assessed for 12 species. Half of the 10 native species—Yellow Bittern (Ixobrychus sinensis), White-throated Ground-Dove (Gallicolumba xanthonura), Collared Kingfisher (Todiramphus chloris), Rufous Fantail (Rhipidura rufifrons), and Micronesian Starling (Aplonis opaca)—and one alien bird—Island Collared-Dove (Streptopelia bitorquata)—have increased since 1982. Three native birds—Mariana Fruit-Dove (Ptilinopus roseicapilla), Micronesian Honeyeater (Myzomela rubratra), and Tinian Monarch (Monarcha takatsukasae)—have decreased since 1982. Trends for the remaining two native birds—White Tern (Gygis alba) and Bridled White-eye (Zosterops saypani)—and one alien bird—Eurasian Tree Sparrow (Passer montanus)—were considered relatively stable. Only five birds—White-throated Ground-Dove, Mariana Fruit-Dove, Tinian Monarch, Rufous Fantail, and Bridled White-eye—showed significant differences among regions of Tinian by year. Tinian Monarch was found in all habitat types, with the greatest monarch densities observed in limestone forest, secondary forest, and tangantangan (Leucaena leucocephala) thicket and the smallest densities found in open fields and urban/residential habitats. On Aguiguan, 19 species were detected on one or both of the surveys (1982 and 2008), and abundance estimates were produced for nine native and one alien species. Densities for seven of the nine native birds—White-throated Ground-Dove, Mariana Fruit-Dove, Collared Kingfisher, Rufous Fantail, Bridled White-eye, Golden White-eye (Cleptornis marchei), and Micronesian Starling—and the alien bird— Island Collared-Dove—were significantly greater in 2008 than 1982. No differences in densities were detected between the two surveys for White Tern and Micronesian Honeyeater. Three native land birds— Micronesian Megapode (Megapodius laperouse), Guam Swiftlet (Collocalia bartschi), and Nightingale Reed-Warbler (Acrocephalus luscinia)—were either not detected during the point-transect counts or the numbers of birds detected were too small to estimate densities for either island. Increased military operations on Tinian may result in increases in habitat clearings and the human population, which would expand human-dominated habitats, and declines in some bird populations would be likely to continue or be exacerbated with these actions. Expanded military activities on Tinian would also mean increased movement between Guam and Tinian, elevating the probability of transporting the brown tree snake (Boiga irregularis) to Tinian.

Technical Report↗
USGS2012

Developing accurate survey methods for estimating population sizes and trends of the critically endangered Nihoa Millerbird and Nihoa Finch.

This report describes the results of a comparative study of bird survey methods undertaken for the purpose of improving assessments of the conservation status for the two endemic passerines on the Island of Nihoa—Nihoa Millerbird (Sylviidae: Acrocephalus familiaris kingi ) and Nihoa Finch (Fringilidae: Telespiza ultima ; also referred herein as millerbird and finch)—both listed as endangered under the Federal Endangered Species Act (ESA) and Hawai`i Revised Statutes 195D. The current survey protocol, implemented since 1967, has produced a highly variable range of counts for both the millerbird and finch, making difficult assessments of population size and trend. This report details the analyses of bird survey data collected in 2010 and 2011 in which three survey methods were compared―strip-transect, line-transect, and point-transect sampling―and provides recommendations for improved survey methods and protocols. Funding for this research was provided through a Science Support Partnership grant sponsored jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). Point-transect surveys indicated that millerbirds were more abundant than shown by the striptransect method, and were estimated at 802 birds in 2010 (95%CI = 652 – 964) and 704 birds in 2011 (95%CI = 579 – 837). Point-transect surveys yielded population estimates with improved precision which will permit trends to be detected in shorter time periods and with greater statistical power than is available from strip-transect survey methods. Mean finch population estimates and associated uncertainty were not markedly different among the three survey methods, but the performance of models used to estimate density and population size are expected to improve as the data from additional surveys are incorporated. Using the pointtransect survey, the mean finch population size was estimated at 2,917 birds in 2010 (95%CI = 2,037 – 3,965) and 2,461 birds in 2011 (95%CI = 1,682 – 3,348). Preliminary testing of the line-transect method in 2011 showed that it would not generate sufficient detections to effectively model bird density, and consequently, relatively precise population size estimates. Both species were fairly evenly distributed across Nihoa and appear to occur in all or nearly all available habitat. The time expended and area traversed by observers was similar among survey methods; however, point-transect surveys do not require that observers walk a straight transect line, thereby allowing them to avoid culturally or biologically sensitive areas and minimize the adverse effects of recurrent travel to any particular area. In general, pointtransect surveys detect more birds than strip-survey methods, thereby improving precision and resulting population size and trend estimation. The method is also better suited for the steep and uneven terrain of Nihoa

Hawaii↗
USGS2012

Palila abundance estimates and trend

The Palila (Loxioides bailleui) is an endangered, seed-eating, finch-billed honeycreeper found only on Hawai`i Island. Once occurring on the islands of Kaua`i and O`ahu and Mauna Loa and Hualālai volcanoes of Hawai`i, Palila are now found only in subalpine, dry-forest habitats on Mauna Kea (Banko et al. 2002). Previous analyses showed that Palila numbers fluctuated throughout the 1980s and 1990s but declined rapidly and steadily since 2003 (Jacobi et al. 1996, Leonard et al. 2008, Banko et al. 2009, Gorresen et al. 2009, Banko et al. in press). The aim of this report is to update abundance estimates for the Palila based on the 2012 surveys. We assess Palila trends over two periods: 1) the long-term trend during 1998–2012 and 2) the short-term trajectory between 2003 and 2012. The first period evaluates the population trend for the entire time series since additional transects were established (Johnson et al. 2006). These additional transects were established to produce a more precise population estimate and provide more complete coverage of the Palila range. The initial year for short-term trajectory was chosen subjectively to coincide with the recent decline in the Palila population. Additionally, stations in the core Palila habitat were surveyed on two occasions in 2012, thus allowing us to address the question of how repeat samples improve estimate precision.

Technical Report↗
USGS2012

2011 Kiwikiu (Maui Parrotbill) and Maui 'Alauahio abundance estimates and the effect of sampling effort on power to detect a trend

The Kiwikiu ( Pseudonestor xanthophrys ), also called the Maui Parrotbill, is an endangered, forest bird found only in high elevation, wet forest of the eastern portion of Maui Island. Recent surveys, conducted at five year intervals, have revealed wide variation in abundance estimates (Camp et al. 2009). Effective management and conservation requires accurate estimates of abundance, which is difficult for rare species such as the Kiwikiu because low density leads to few observations, resulting in low sample size and high uncertainty in abundance estimates. In addition to being rare, they occur in remote, difficult to access terrain, which makes them difficult to detect and further reduces the accuracy of counts. The Maui `Alauahio ( Paroreomyza montana ), sometimes called the Maui Creeper, historically occupied the entire island of Maui (Gorresen et al. 2009). It has since been extirpated from much of its original habitat and now occurs in forested areas of East Maui where its habitat overlaps with that of the Kiwikiu. Though they share the same habitat, the `Alauahio is much more abundant—by more than two orders of magnitude—and occurs over a wider range than the Kiwikiu. Both species appear to have no statistically significant population trend from 1980–2001, but abundance estimates vary widely from survey to survey and have wide uncertainties (Camp et al. 2009). Ideally survey design should result in estimates precise enough to be able to detect significant declines in abundance that may trigger management intervention. We wished to improve the accuracy of Kiwikiu abundance estimates and the ability to detect significant trends in abundance. To that end, in 2011, repeated point count surveys were conducted across the Kiwikiu range, excluding Haleakalā National Park (Figure 1). The increased sampling effort increases sample size and improves the precision of estimates, and repeat samples also allowed us to partition within-year and between-year variation in surveys, increasing the statistical power to detect trends.

Hawaii↗
USGS2013

Nitrate Trends in Minnesota Rivers

The objective of this study was to assess long-term trends (30 to 35 years) of flow-adjusted concentrations of nitrite+nitrate-N (hereinafter referred to as nitrate) in a way that would allow us to discern changing trends. Recognizing that these trends are commonly different from one river to another river and from one part of the state to another, our objective was to examine as many river monitoring sites across the state as possible for which sufficient long term streamflow and concentration data were available.

Minnesota↗
USGS2012

Great lakes prey fish populations: a cross-basin overview of status and trends based on bottom trawl surveys, 1978-2012

The assessment of prey fish stocks in the Great Lakes have been conducted annually with bottom trawls since the 1970s by the Great Lakes Science Center, sometimes assisted by partner agencies. These stock assessments provide data on the status and trends of prey fish that are consumed by important commercial and recreational fishes. Although all these annual surveys are conducted using bottom trawls, they differ among the lakes in the proportion of the lake covered, seasonal timing, bottom trawl gear used, and the manner in which the trawl is towed (across or along bottom contours). Because each assessment is unique in one or more important aspects, direct comparison of prey fish catches among lakes is not straightforward. However, all of the assessments produce indices of abundance or biomass that can be standardized to facilitate comparisons of status and trends across all the Great Lakes. In this report, population indices were standardized to the highest value for a time series within each lake for the following principal prey species: cisco ( Coregonus artedi ), bloater ( C. hoyi ), rainbow smelt ( Osmerus mordax ), and alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ). Indices were also provided for round goby ( Neogobius melanostomus ), an invasive fish that has proliferated throughout the basin over the past 18 years. These standardized indices represent the best available long-term indices of relative abundance for these fishes across all of the Great Lakes. In this report, standardized indices are presented in graphical form along with synopses to provide a short, informal cross-basin summary of the status and trends of principal prey fishes. In keeping with this intent, tables, references, and a detailed discussion were omitted.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2013

Statewide summary for Louisiana: Chapter E in Emergent wetlands status and trends in the northern Gulf of Mexico: 1950-2010

Throughout the past century, emergent wetlands have been declining across the Gulf of Mexico. Emergent wetland ecosystems provide a variety of resources, including plant and wildlife habitat, commercial and recreational economic activity, and natural barriers against storms. As emergent wetland losses increase, so does the need for information on the causes and effects of this loss, emergent wetland mapping, monitoring and restoration efforts, and education. The U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Gulf of Mexico Program are committed to restoring, enhancing, and protecting these important ecosystems. The purpose of this report is to provide scientists, managers, and citizens with valuable baseline information on the status and trends of emergent wetlands along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. This study examines the emergent wetlands of eight individual estuarine areas within the northern Gulf of Mexico region, as well as presenting statewide summaries for Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. Each estuarine area is detailed in vignettes that address current status and historical trends of estuarine and palustrine emergent wetlands, emergent wetlands mapping and monitoring, causes of status change, restoration and enhancement activities, background information for the study area, and the methodology employed to analyze and document the historical trends and current status of emergent wetlands. This chapter examines the estuaries of Louisiana.

Louisiana↗
USGS2014

Status of whitebarkpine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem: A step-trend analysis comparing 2004-2007 to 2008-2011

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) is a foundation and keystone species in upper subalpine environments of the northern Rocky Mountains that strongly influences the biodiversity and productivity of high-elevation ecosystems (Tomback et al. 2001, Ellison et al. 2005). Throughout its historic range, whitebark pine has decreased significantly as a major component of high-elevation forests. As a result, it is critical to understand the challenges to whitebark pine—not only at the tree and stand level, but also as these factors influence the distribution of whitebark pine across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). In 2003, the National Park Service (NPS) Greater Yellowstone Inventory & Monitoring Network identified whitebark pine as one of twelve significant natural resource indicators or vital signs to monitor (Jean et al. 2005, Fancy et al. 2009) and initiated a long-term, collaborative monitoring program. Partners in this effort include the U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Forest Service, and Montana State University with representatives from each comprising the Greater Yellowstone Whitebark Pine Monitoring Working Group. The objectives of the monitoring program are to assess trends in (1) the proportion of live, whitebark pine trees (>1.4-m tall) infected with white pine blister rust (blister rust); (2) to document blister rust infection severity by the occurrence and location of persisting and new infections; (3) to determine mortality of whitebark pine trees and describe potential factors contributing to the death of trees; and (4) to assess the multiple components of the recruitment of understory whitebark pine into the reproductive population. In this report we summarize the past eight years (2004-2011) of whitebark pine status and trend monitoring in the GYE. Our study area encompasses six national forests (NF), two national parks (NP), as well as state and private lands in portions of Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho; this area is collectively described as the GYE here and in other studies. The sampling design is a probabilistic, twostage cluster design with stands of whitebark pine as the primary units and 10x50 m belt transects as the secondary units. Primary sampling units (stands) were selected randomly from a sample frame of approximately 10,770 mapped pure and mixed whitebark pine stands ≥2.0 hectares in the GYE (Dixon 1997, Landenburger 2012). From 2004 through 2007 (monitoring transect establishment or initial time-step), we established 176 permanent belt transects (secondary sampling units=176) in 150 whitebark pine stands and permanently marked approximately 4,740 individual trees >1.4 m tall to monitor long-term changes in blister rust infection and survival rates. Between 2008 and 2011 (revisit time-step), these same 176 transects were surveyed and again all previously tagged trees were observed for changes in blister rust infection and survival status. Objective 1. Using a combined ratio estimator, we estimated the proportion of live trees infected in the GYE in the initial time-step (2004-2007) to be 0.22 (0.031 SE). Following the completion of all surveys in the revisit time-step (2008-2011), we estimated the proportion of live trees infected with white pine blister rust as 0.23 (0.028 SE; Table 2). We detected no significant change in the proportion of trees infected in the GYE between the two time-steps. Objective 2. We documented blister rust canker locations as occurring in the canopy or bole. We compared changes in canker position between the initial time-step (2004-2007) and the revisit time-step (2008-2011) in order to assess changes in infection severity. This analysis included the 3,795 trees tagged during the initial time-step that were located and documented as alive at the end of the revisit time-step. At the end of the revisit time-step, we found 1,217 trees infected with blister rust. This includes the 287 newly tagged trees in the revisit time step of which 14 had documented infections. Of these 1,217 trees, 780 trees were infected with blister rust in both time steps. Trees with only canopy cankers made up approximately 43% (519 trees) of the total number of trees infected with blister rust at the end of the revisit time-step, while trees with only bole cankers comprised 20% (252 trees), and those with both canopy and bole cankers included 37% (446 trees) of the infected sample. A bole infection is considered to be more consequential than a canopy canker, as it compromises not only the overall longevity of the tree, but its functional capacity for reproductive output as well (Kendall and Arno 1990, Campbell and Antos 2000, McDonald and Hoff 2001, Schwandt and Kegley 2004). In addition to infection location, we also documented infection transition between the canopy and bole. Of the 780 live trees that were infected with blister rust in both time-steps, approximately 31% (242) maintained canopy cankers and 36% (281) retained bole infections at the end of the revisit time-step. Infection transition from canopy to bole occurred in 30% (234) of the revisit time-step trees while 3% (23) transitioned from bole to canopy infections during this period. Objective 3. To determine whitebark pine mortality, we resurveyed all belt transects to reassess the life status of permanently tagged trees >1.4 m tall. We compared the total number of live tagged trees recorded during monitoring transect establishment to the total number of resurveyed dead tagged trees recorded during the revisit time-step and identified all potential mortality-influencing conditions (blister rust, mountain pine beetle, fire and other). By the end of the revisit time-step, we observed a total of 975 dead tagged whitebark pine trees; using a ratio estimator, this represents a loss of approximately 20% (SE=4.35%) of the original live tagged tree population (GYWPMWG 2012). Objective 4. To investigate the proportion of live, reproducing tagged trees, we divided the total number of positively identified cone-bearing trees by the total number of live trees in the tagged tree sample at the end of the revisit time-step. To approximate the average density of recruitment trees per stand, trees ≤1.4 m tall were summed by stand (within the 500 m² transect area) and divided by the total number of stands. Reproducing trees made up approximately 24% (996 trees) of the total live tagged population at the end of the revisit time-step. Differentiating between whitebark pine and limber pine seedlings or saplings is problematic given the absence of cones or cone scars. Therefore, understory summaries as presented in this report may include individuals of both species when they are sympatric in a stand. The average density of small trees ≤1.4 m tall was 53 understory trees per 500 m². Raw counts of these understory individuals ranged from 0-635 small trees per belt transect. In addition, a total of 287 trees were added to the tagged tree population by the end of 2011. These newly tagged trees were individuals that upon subsequent revisits had reached a height of >1.4 m tall and subsequently added to the sample. Throughout the past decade in the GYE, monitoring has helped document shifts in whitebark pine forests; whitebark pine stands have been impacted by insect, pathogen, wildland fire, and other disturbance events. Blister rust infection is ubiquitous throughout the ecosystem and infection proportions are variable across the region. And while we have documented mortality of whitebark pine, we have also recorded considerable recruitment. We provide this first step-trend report as a quantifiable baseline for understanding the state of whitebark pine in the GYE. Many aspects of whitebark pine health are highly variable across the range of its distribution in the GYE. Through sustained implementation of the monitoring program, we will continue efforts to document and quantify whitebark pine forest dynamics as they arise under periodic upsurges in insect, pathogen, fire episodes, and climatic events in the GYE. Since its inception, this monitoring program perseveres as one of the only sustained longterm efforts conducted in the GYE with a singular purpose to track the health and status of this prominent keystone species.

Natural Resource Technical Report↗
USGS2010

Temperature trends and preservation rates in the Deep Tuscaloosa Formation, Judge Digby Field, Louisiana

Judge Digby Field in Pointe Coupe Parish, Louisiana, exhibits some of the highest cumulative natural gas production from the lower Tuscaloosa Formation (Upper Cretaceous) in the Gulf Coast. The average production depth in Judge Digby Field is approximately 22,000 ft. The 400°F temperatures typically encountered at depth in Judge Digby Field are anomalously low when compared to temperature trends extrapolated to similar depths regionally. At this depth, the minimum and maximum temperatures for all servoirs in Gulf Coast producing gas fields are 330 and 550°F, respectively; the average temperature is 430°F. The relatively depressed geothermal gradients in Judge Digby Field may be due to high sediment preservation rates, which may have delayed the thermal equilibration of the sediment package with respect to the surrounding rock. Analyzing burial history and thermal maturation indicates that the deep Tuscaloosa trend in Judge Digby Field is currently in the gas generation window. Using temperature trends as an exploration tool may have important implications for undiscovered hydrocarbons at greater depths in currently producing reservoirs, and for settings that are geologically analogous to Judge Digby Field.

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