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At least 541 records · Page 30Linked to original sources

Using time series structural characteristics to analyze grain prices in food insecure countries

Two components of food security monitoring are accurate forecasts of local grain prices and the ability to identify unusual price behavior. We evaluated a method that can both facilitate forecasts of cross-country grain price data and identify dissimilarities in price behavior across multiple markets. This method, characteristic based clustering (CBC), identifies similarities in multiple time series based on structural characteristics in the data. Here, we conducted a simulation experiment to determine if CBC can be used to improve the accuracy of maize price forecasts. We then compared forecast accuracies among clustered and non-clustered price series over a rolling time horizon. We found that the accuracy of forecasts on clusters of time series were equal to or worse than forecasts based on individual time series. However, in the following experiment we found that CBC was still useful for price analysis. We used the clusters to explore the similarity of price behavior among Kenyan maize markets. We found that price behavior in the isolated markets of Mandera and Marsabit has become increasingly dissimilar from markets in other Kenyan cities, and that these dissimilarities could not be explained solely by geographic distance. The structural isolation of Mandera and Marsabit that we find in this paper is supported by field studies on food security and market integration in Kenya. Our results suggest that a market with a unique price series (as measured by structural characteristics that differ from neighboring markets) may lack market integration and food security.

Food Security↗

Enhanced microplastic fragmentation along human built structures in an urban waterway

Plastic pollution and microplastic (MP, 1 µm to 5 mm) generation are growing problems affecting the global community and a wide range of natural and disturbed environments. Urban and suburban waterways are directly impacted by plastic pollution due to their proximity to population centers and many different types single use plastic waste sources. In this study, plastic waste accumulation and fragmentation was investigated along the Cooper River in Camden County, NJ. Polymer composition was identified for individual plastic waste particles collected along the Cooper River using Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometry. Multiple human-built structures (Wallworth Lake, Evans Pond and Hopkins Pond dams) along the Cooper River were found to accumulate different types of plastic waste. The accumulation of plastic waste along these structures resulted in the initial stages of plastic fragmentation and the identification of large MP particles (1 to 5 mm). Quantitative analysis revealed that fragmented polystyrene (PS) particles constituted 82.8% of the total plastic fragments identified, most of which were identified at the Wallworth Lake dam. Many other types of fragmented plastic litter, including polyethylene and polypropylene, were identified at the Wallworth Lake dam, as well. This research demonstrates that engineered structures within urban and suburban aquatic ecosystems serve as significant aggregators of plastic debris, thereby catalyzing its breakdown into microplastics. Considering the escalating ecological and human health ramifications of microplastic proliferation, the fragmentation of plastic waste in an urban and suburban waterway observed in this study can also result in potentially toxic smaller MP particles, and increased exposure to aquatic organisms and humans.

New Jersey↗

Wide angle X-ray scattering (WAXS) study of "two-line" ferrihydrite structure: Effect of arsenate sorption and counterion variation and comparison with EXAFS results

Wide angle X-ray scattering (WAXS) measurements have been made on a suite of “two-line” ferrihydrite (FHY2) samples containing varying amounts of coprecipitated arsenate. Samples prepared at pH 8 with counter ions chloride, nitrate, and a mixture of both also were examined. The raw WAXS scattering functions show that “two-line” ferrihydrite actually has a large number of non-Bragg (i.e., diffuse scattering) maxima up to our observation limit of 16 Å −1 . The type of counter ion used during synthesis produces no significant change in this function. In unarsenated samples, Radial Distribution Functions (RDFs) produced from the scattering functions show a well-defined Fe-O peak at 2.02 Å in excellent agreement with the mean distance of 2.01 Å from extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) analysis. The area under the Fe-O peak is consistent with only octahedral oxygen coordination about iron, and an iron coordination about oxygen of 2.2, in agreement with the EXAFS results, the sample composition, and XANES measurements. The second peak observed in the RDFs is clearly divided into two populations of correlations, at 3.07 and 3.52 Å, respectively. These distances are close to the EXAFS-derived Fe-Fe subshell distances of 3.02–3.05 and 3.43–3.46 Å, respectively, though this is misleading as the RDF peaks also include contributions from O-Fe and O-O correlations. Simulated RDFs of the FeOOH polymorphs indicate how the observed RDF structure relates to the EXAFS pair-correlation function, and allow comparisons with an ordered ferrihydrite structure.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗

Geologic structure between the Murray fracture zone and the Transverse Ranges

The Murray fracture has been thought to extend ashore into the Transverse Ranges of California, but a geophysical study shows no evidence of structural continuity between these features. Instead, basement morphology typical of the Murray fracture zone ends where its known magnetic and bathymetric expression dies out. Similarly, east-west Transverse Range structures change direction so that they are parallel to the northwest trend of the coast rather than crossing the continental shelf and slope. The lack of continuity suggests an independent development of the Transverse Ranges since at least mid-Tertiary time along an older structural trend continuous with the Murray fracture zone. Possibly a fundamental lineament in the crust, an extension of the Murray, inactive since at least the mid-Tertiary, provided a convenient trend for development of the Transverse Ranges in response to deformation along the San Andreas fault system. The Murray fracture zone is thought by some authors to be a transform-fault. The transform-fault hypothesis alleviates some difficulties that arise in explaining the origin of the zone by transcurrent faulting but equivalent uncertainties seem to accompany the newer explanation.

Marine Geology↗

Wave-formed structures and paleoenvironmental reconstruction

Wave-formed sedimentary structures can be powerful interpretive tools because they reflect not only the velocity and direction of the oscillatory currents, but also the length of the horizontal component of orbital motion and the presence of velocity asymmetry within the flow. Several of these aspects can be related through standard wave theories to combinations of wave dimensions and water depth that have definable natural limits. For a particular grain size, threshold of particle movement and that of conversion from a rippled to flat bed indicate flow-velocity limits. The ratio of ripple spacing to grain size provides an estimate of the length of the near-bottom orbital motion. The degree of velocity asymmetry is related to the asymmetry of the bedforms, though it presently cannot be estimated with confidence. A plot of water depth versus wave height (h-H diagram) provides a convenient approach for showing the combination of wave parameters and water depths capable of generating any particular structure in sand of a given grain size. Natural limits on wave height and inferences or assumptions regarding either water depth or wave period based on geologic evidence allow refinement of the paleoenvironmental reconstruction. The assumptions and the degree of approximation involved in the different techniques impose significant constraints. Inferences based on wave-formed structures are most reliable when they are drawn in the context of other evidence such as the association of sedimentary features or progradational sequences.

Marine Geology↗

Structure, age and origin of the bay-mouth shoal deposits, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia

The mouth of Chesapeake Bay contains a distinctive shoal complex and related deposits that result from the complex interaction of three different processes: (1) progradation of a barrier spit at the southern end of the Delmarva Peninsula, (2) strong, reversing tidal currents that transport and rework sediment brought to the bay mouth from the north, and (3) landward (bayward) net non-tidal circulation and sediment transport. Together, these processes play a major role in changing the configuration of the estuary and filling it with sediment. The deposits at the mouth of the bay hold keys both to the evolution of the bay during the Holocene transgression and to the history of previous generations of the bay. The deposit associated with the shoals at the mouth of the bay, the bay-mouth sand, is a distinct stratigraphic unit composed mostly of uniform, gray, fine sand. The position and internal structure of the unit shows that it is related to near-present sea level, and thus is less than a few thousand years old. The processes affecting the upper surface of the deposit and the patterns of erosion and deposition at this surface are complex, but the geometry and structure of the deposit indicate that it is a coherent unit that is prograding bayward and tending to fill the estuary. The source of the bay-mouth sand is primarily outside the bay in the nearshore zone of the Delmarva Peninsula and on the inner continental shelf. The internal structure of the deposit, its surface morphology, its heavy-mineral composition, bottom-current studies, comparative bathymetry, and sediment budgets all suggest that sand is brought to the bay mouth by southerly longshore drift along the Delmarva Peninsula and then swept into the bay. In addition to building the southward- and bayward-prograding bay-mouth sand, these processes result in sand deposition tens of kilometers into the bay.

Marine Geology↗

Deep structure under Yellowstone National Park U.S.A.: A continental "hot spot"

In order to understand the origin of long-lived loci of volcanism (sometimes called “hot spots”) and their possible role in global tectonic processes, it is essential to know their deep structure. Even though some work has been done on the crustal, upper-mantle, and deep-mantle structure under some of these “hot spots”, the picture is far from clear. In an attempt to study the structure under the Yellowstone National Park U.S.A., which is considered to be such a “hot spot”, we recorded teleseisms using 26 telemetered seismic stations and three groups of portable stations. The network was operated within a 150 km radius centered on the Yellowstone caldera, the major, Quaternary volcanic feature of the Yellowstone region. Teleseismic delays of about 1.5 sec are found inside the caldera, and the delays remain high over a 100 km wide area around the caldera. The spatial distribution and magnitude of the delays indicate the presence of a large body of low-velocity material with horizontal dimensions corresponding approximately to the caldera size (40 km × 80 km) near the surface and extending to a depth of 200–250 km under the caldera. Using ray-tracing and inversion techniques, it is estimated that the compressional velocity inside the anomalous body is lower than in the surrounding rock by about 15% in the upper crust and by 5% in the lower crust and upper mantle. It is postulated that the body is partly composed of molten rock with a high degree of partial melting at shallow depths and is responsible for the observed Yellowstone volcanism. The large size of the partially molten body, taken together with its location at the head of a 350 km zone of volcanic propagation along the axis of the Snake River Plain, indicates that the volcanism associated with Yellowstone has its origin below the lithosphere and is relatively stationary with respect to plate motion. Using our techniques, we are unable to detect any measurable velocity contrast in the mantle beneath the low-velocity body, and, hence, we are unable to determine whether the Yellowstone melting anomaly is associated with a deep heat source or with any deep phenomenon such as a convection plume, chemical plume, or gravitational anchor.

Wyoming↗

CLAYFORM: a FORTRAN 77 computer program apportioning the constituents in the chemical analysis of a clay or other silicate mineral into a structural formula

The FORTRAN 77 computer program CLAYFORM apportions the constituents of a conventional chemical analysis of a silicate mineral into a user-selected structure formula. If requested, such as for a clay mineral or other phyllosilicate, the program distributes the structural formula components into appropriate default or user-specified structural sites (tetrahedral, octahedral, interlayer, hydroxyl, and molecular water sites), and for phyllosilicates calculates the layer (tetrahedral, octahedral, and interlayer) charge distribution. The program also creates data files of entered analyses for subsequent reuse. ?? 1987.

Computers & Geosciences↗

Aliphatic structure of humic acids; a clue to their origin

Nuclear magnetic resonance spectra (both 1 H and 13 C) of humic acids from diverse depositional environments indicate the presence of aromatic chemical structures, most likely derived from lignin of vascular plants, and complex, paraffinic structures, most likely derived from algal or microbial sources. The latter components account for a major fraction of humic acid structures in both terrestrial and aquatic environments, suggesting that algae or microbes play a large role in humification of organic remains from both systems.

Organic Geochemistry↗

Agricultural land-use change alters the structure and diversity of Amazon riparian forests

Riparian forests play key roles in protecting biodiversity and water resources , making them priorities for conservation in human-dominated landscapes, but fragmentation associated with expanding tropical croplands threatens their ecological integrity. We compared the structure of tropical riparian forests within intact and cropland catchments in a region of intensive soybean production in the southeastern Brazilian Amazon. We studied forest plots (varying from 120 to 210 m long) that bisected riparian zone forests and headwater streams in ten catchments. Four plots were within large areas of intact primary forest and six were in bands of protected riparian forest along streams within croplands as required by the Brazilian Forest Code. We found that riparian forests in croplands harbored fewer species of trees and seedlings/saplings, and had higher proportions of opportunistic, pioneer tree species. We also found greater variation in tree species composition, and higher internal dissimilarity in croplands compared with forests. The observed patterns in tree species composition were driven mainly by differences between riparian forest-cropland edges and those bordering intact upland forests. Forests nearest to streams in cropland and forested catchments were more similar to one another. Results suggest that wider buffers are needed at the edges of croplands to maintain riparian forest structure. The minimum 30-m riparian buffers now required by the Brazilian Forest Code may thus be insufficient to prevent long-term shifts in riparian forest species composition and structure.

Biological Conservation↗

Scenario-Based Decision Analysis: Integrated scenario planning and structured decision making for resource management under climate change

Managing resources under climate change is a high-stakes and daunting task, especially because climate change and associated complex biophysical responses engender sustained directional changes as well as abrupt transformations. This environmental non-stationarity challenges assumptions and expectations among scientists, managers, rights holders, and stakeholders. These challenges are anything but straightforward – a high degree of uncertainty impedes our ability to predict the environmental trajectory with confidence, and affected resources often span multiple governance jurisdictions or are subject to competing management objectives. Fortunately, tools exist to help grapple with such challenges. Two commonly used tools are scenario planning (SP) and structured decision making (SDM). SP is a well-established approach for assessing system response and facilitating decision making under a wide range of conditions that are uncertain and uncontrollable, such as those associated with adapting to climate change. However, SP lacks a defined structure for establishing objectives, quantifying tradeoffs, and evaluating the performance of candidate decisions to meet those objectives. SDM, on the other hand, is rooted in decision theory and focuses on explicit (often quantitative) assessment of the expected outcomes of choosing among a set of decision alternatives. SDM has been criticized for an inability to account for surprises and for imposing an overly narrow framing of problems to increase tractability. We discuss the strengths and limitations of SDM and SP as experienced through their application in various resource-management contexts, and then propose a new generalized framework – Scenario-Based Decision Analysis (SBDA) – that integrates these complementary approaches. SBDA structures resource management problems and solutions while considering uncertainties and surprises to inform resource management decision making.

Biological Conservation↗

On the formation and structure of rare-earth element complexes in aqueous solutions under hydrothermal conditions with new data on gadolinium aqua and chloro complexes

Synchrotron X-ray spectroscopy experiments were made on the Gd(III) aqua and chloro complexes in low pH aqueous solutions at temperatures ranging from 25 to 500????C and at pressures up to 480??MPa using a hydrothermal diamond anvil cell. Analysis of fluorescence Gd L3-edge X-ray absorption fine structure (XAFS) spectra measured from a 0.006m Gd/0.16m HNO3 aqueous solution at temperatures up to 500????C and at pressures up to 260??MPa shows that the Gd-O distance of the Gd3+ aqua ion decreases steadily at a rate of ??? 0.007??A??/100????C whereas the number of coordinated H2O molecules decreases from 9.0 ?? 0.5 to 7.0 ?? 0.4. The loss of water molecules in the Gd3+ aqua ion inner hydration shell over this temperature range (a 22% reduction) is smaller than exhibited by the Yb3+ aqua ion (42% reduction) indicating that the former is significantly more stable than the later. We conjecture that the anomalous enrichment of Gd reported from measurement of REE concentrations in ocean waters may be attributed to the enhanced stability of the Gd3+ aqua ion relative to other REEs. Gd L3-edge XAFS measurements of 0.006m and 0.1m GdCl3 aqueous solutions at temperatures up to 500????C and pressures up to 480??MPa reveal that the onset of significant Gd3+-Cl- association occurs around 300????C. Partially-hydrated stepwise inner-sphere complexes most likely of the type Gd(H2O)??-nCln+3-n occur in the chloride solutions at higher temperatures, where ?? ??? 8 at 300????C decreasing slightly to an intermediate value between 7 and 8 upon approaching 500????C. This is the first direct evidence for the occurrence of partially-hydrated REE Gd (this study) and Yb [Mayanovic, R.A., Jayanetti, S., Anderson, A.J., Bassett, W.A., Chou, I-M., 2002a. The structure of Yb3+ aquo ion and chloro complexes in aqueous solutions at up to 500 ??C and 270 MPa. J. Phys. Chem. A 106, 6591-6599.] chloro complexes in hydrothermal solutions. The number of chlorides (n) of the partially-hydrated Gd(III) chloro complexes increases steadily with temperature from 0.4 ?? 0.2 to 1.7 ?? 0.3 in the 0.006m chloride solution and from 0.9 ?? 0.7 to 1.8 ?? 0.7 in the 0.1m GdCl3 aqueous solution in the 300-500????C range. Conversely, the number of H2O ligands of Gd(H2O)??-nCln+3-n complexes decreases steadily from 8.9 ?? 0.4 to 5.8 ?? 0.7 in the 0.006m GdCl3 aqueous solution and from 9.0 ?? 0.5 to 5.3 ?? 1.0 in the 0.1m GdCl3 aqueous solution at temperatures from 25 to 500????C. Analysis of our results shows that the chloride ions partially displace the inner-shell water molecules during Gd(III) complex formation under hydrothermal conditions. The Gd-OH2 bond of the partially-hydrated Gd(III) chloro complexes exhibits slightly smaller rates of length contraction (??? 0.005??A??/100????C) for both solutions. The structural aspects of chloride speciation of Gd(III) as measured from this study and of Yb(III) as measured from our previous experiments are consistent with the solubility of these and other REE in deep-sea hydrothermal fluids. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chemical Geology↗

Bulk and intramolecular carbon isotopic compositions of hydrocarbon gases from laboratory pyrolysis of oil shale of the Green River Formation: Implications for isotope structures of kerogens

Evaluation of intramolecular isotope distributions within organic compounds can provide important insights into gas formation processes and structural properties of gas-generating precursors, such as kerogen, bitumen, and oil, in natural reservoirs. Until recently, little has been known about the intramolecular isotope distributions within kerogens. In this study, we conducted systematic pyrolysis experiments of gas generation from a lacustrine oil shale of the Eocene Green River Formation under hydrous and anhydrous conditions (equivalent maturity or Easy %R o : 0.76 to 3.27 at 310 to 480 °C for 3 to 50 days), measuring gas yields and compositions, as well as bulk and position-specific (PS) carbon isotope compositions. Gas generation processes were investigated in combination with kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) simulations on a model Type I kerogen based on the chemical structures of oil shale of the Green River Formation. The comparison of our experimental results with kMC modelling indicates a series of β-scission, radical isomerization, and recombination reactions better represent the bulk isotope compositions of propane in the pyrolysis of the oil shale of the Green River Formation, but the ΔC c-t (= δ 13 C cen – δ 13 C ter ) values of propane at Easy %R o > 1.5 can be better simulated by a simple combination of propyl groups with H radicals. Combining our previous works on marine shale of the Woodford Formation and Springfield Coal Member of the Carbondale Formation, PS carbon isotopes of propane indicate that in the lacustrine shales of the Green River Formation and the marine Woodford Shale, propane is sourced from C C bond cleavage, while C O bond cracking generates propane from coal at the initial kerogen cracking stage. At high maturity, the differences of late-stage propane production among the source rocks lead to the different bulk and PS C kinetic isotope effects of propane. Our findings suggest that the δ 13 C at the terminal position of propane precursors is likely up to 3.6‰ higher than at the central position in the Green River kerogen, while they are similar in the marine shale of Woodford Formation. In addition, the δ 13 C at the central position of propyl groups attached to heteroatom compounds is relatively more positive in the Springfield Coal Member of the Carbondale Formation than in Green River kerogen. A comparison of intramolecular C isotopes of propyl groups in the kerogens with their bulk δ 13 C, based on the PS δ 13 C of early-generated propane, contributes to our understanding of heterogeneities of isotopic structures of sedimentary organic matter.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

Geometry and kinematics of Late Cretaceous inversion structures in the Jiuquan Basin, western China

Late Cretaceous inversion structures, which are significant for oil and gas accumulation, are widely distributed throughout the Jiuquan Basin. These structures are primarily made up of inverted faults and fault-related folds. Most of the axial planes of folds are parallel to inverted faults trending north-east, indicating that the principal stress direction was north-west - south-east in the Late Cretaceous. The average inversion ratios of faults in the four sags that were investigated are 0.39, 0.29, 0.38, 0.32. The average inversion ratio in the Jiuquan Basin is 0.34 and the degree of inversion is moderate to strong. As moderate inversion is suitable for forming excellent hydrocarbon traps, there is considered to be significant potential in the basin for the presence of structural traps. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cretaceous Research↗

Factors structuring macrofaunal communities of hydrocarbon seeps along the Cascadia margin

Cold seeps, fueled by hydrocarbon-based chemosynthesis, support unique benthic communities that can vary across small spatial scales influenced by local geochemistry. We examined the community structure and function of macrofauna in cold seeps along the Cascadia margin on the edge of gas hydrate stability—a dynamic environment that may fluctuate as seafloor temperatures change. These communities were assessed in relation to their sediment environment to provide baseline data for these previously uninvestigated seeps and decipher the most significant variables structuring them. Specific environmental drivers investigated include sediment organic carbon, total nitrogen, C:N ratios, stable isotopes (δ 13 C and δ 15 N), redox potential, grain size, and porefluid chemistry. Macrofaunal community composition varied across locations separating into twelve distinct clusters. Several co-located cores clustered separately, indicating high heterogeneity in these communities at small spatial scales. Significant drivers of macrofauna communities included clay and sand content, C:N, δ 15 N values, organic carbon content, and depth. Functional trait composition was influenced by similar drivers, including depth, δ 15 N values, C:N, and sand content. Our results indicate similar environmental variables structure macrofaunal community composition and function across small- and large-scale gradients, contributing to our understanding of heterogeneity in local and regional factors that shape seep macrofaunal communities. This is the first investigation of macrofauna at these recently discovered seeps and provides baseline data on the hydrate stability zone for future comparisons, advancing our knowledge of broad-scale trends in seep macrofauna ecology.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

Simulation modeling to understand how selective foraging by beaver can drive the structure and function of a willow community

Beaver-willow (Castor-Salix) communities are a unique and vital component of healthy wetlands throughout the Holarctic region. Beaver selectively forage willow to provide fresh food, stored winter food, and construction material. The effects of this complex foraging behavior on the structure and function of willow communities is poorly understood. Simulation modeling may help ecologists understand these complex interactions. In this study, a modified version of the SAVANNA ecosystem model was developed to better understand how beaver foraging affects the structure and function of a willow community in a simulated riparian ecosystem in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado (RMNP). The model represents willow in terms of plant and stem dynamics and beaver foraging in terms of the quantity and quality of stems cut to meet the energetic and life history requirements of beaver. Given a site where all stems were equally available, the model suggested a simulated beaver family of 2 adults, 2 yearlings, and 2 kits required a minimum of 4 ha of willow (containing about10 stems m -2 ) to persist in a steady-state condition. Beaver created a willow community where the annual net primary productivity (ANPP) was 2 times higher and plant architecture was more diverse than the willow community without beaver. Beaver foraging created a plant architecture dominated by medium size willow plants, which likely explains how beaver can increase ANPP. Long-term simulations suggested that woody biomass stabilized at similar values even though availability differed greatly at initial condition. Simulations also suggested that willow ANPP increased across a range of beaver densities until beaver became food limited. Thus, selective foraging by beaver increased productivity, decreased biomass, and increased structural heterogeneity in a simulated willow community.

Ecological Modelling↗

Modeling structural mechanics of oyster reef self-organization including environmental constraints and community interactions

Self-organization is a process of establishing and reinforcing local structures through feedbacks between internal population dynamics and external factors. In reef-building systems, substrate is collectively engineered by individuals that also occupy it and compete for space. Reefs are constrained spatially by the physical environment, and by mortality, which reduces production but exposes substrate for recruits. Reef self-organization therefore depends on efficient balancing of production and occupancy of substrate. To examine this, we develop a three-dimensional individual-based model (IBM) of oyster reef mechanics. Shell substrate is grown by individuals as valves, accumulates at the reef level, and degrades following mortality. Single restoration events and subsequent dynamics are simulated for a case study in South Carolina (USA). Variability in model processes is included on recruitment, spatial environmental constraints, and predation, over multiple independent runs and five predator community scenarios. The main goal for this study is to summarize trends in dynamics that are robust across this uncertainty, and from these generate new hypotheses and predictions for future studies. Simulation results demonstrate three phases following restoration: initial transient dynamics with considerable shell loss, followed by growth and saturation of the live population, and then saturation of settlement habitat several years later. Over half of simulations recoup initial shell losses as populations grow, while others continue in decline. The balance between population density, substrate supporting the reef, and exposed surfaces for settlement is mediated by overall population size and size structure, presence of predators, and relative amounts of live individuals and intact dead shells. The efficiency of settlement substrate production improves through time as population size structure becomes more complex, and the population of dead valves accumulates.

Ecological Modelling↗

Complex landslide patterns explained by local intra-unit variability of stratigraphy and structure: Case study in the Tyee Formation, Oregon, USA

Lithology and geologic structure are important controls on landslide susceptibility and are incorporated into many regional landslide hazard models. Typically, metrics for mapped geologic units are used as model input variables and a single set of values for material strength are assumed, regardless of spatial heterogeneities that may exist within a map unit. Here we describe how differences in bedding thickness, grain size, inferred uniaxial compressive strength, and bedding dip control the inherent susceptibility of slopes to deep-seated failure within a single mapped geologic unit - the Tyee Formation of Oregon, USA. The Tyee, which covers over 15,000 km2 and underlies much of the Oregon Coast Range, comprises gently folded alternating beds of sandstone and siltstone deposited as turbidites, forming a 2-km thick Eocene submarine fan which has been uplifted and exhumed through the Cenozoic. Deep-seated landslides are widespread in the Tyee, but form a complex spatial pattern such that landslide density ranges from 0 to 24% of the total landscape area. These slides are often extensive and sufficiently deep to reduce local hillslope gradients, resulting in a strong negative correlation between landslide density and mean local slope. Mean annual precipitation and predicted strong ground motions from Cascadia earthquake scenarios also fail to explain the spatial distribution of deep-seated landslides. Consequently, landslide stability models, which are strongly influenced by landscape slope, pore-water pressure, and seismic acceleration, yield landslide susceptibility maps which are broadly anti-correlated with mapped deep-seated landslide density. Through a multivariable linear regression model, we show that much of the variance in deep-seated landslide density can be explained by variability of intra-unit stratigraphic and structural characteristics, which we measure at 128 sites across two study areas totaling ∼3000 km2. Our results suggest bedding dip is only weakly correlated to landslide density, but strongly influences landslide failure style. Subtle increases in bedding dip, even in the gently folded Tyee Formation, result in a substantially higher likelihood of a landslide being cataclinal, or parallel to bedding. Overall, we find a slight majority of landslides fail within these cataclinal slopes, and that these landslides tend to be larger than non-cataclinal landslides. We also show that the lithological and structural properties that influence landslide susceptibility are distinct for these two populations of landslides. Our results demonstrate how localized, intra-unit, geologic variability can exert strong control on landslide susceptibility and failure style. This suggests that in some locations, landslide hazard models could be significantly improved by incorporating detailed, spatially variable, geologic properties rather than relying solely on generalized geologic map units.

Oregon↗