SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Risk Analysis”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 541 records · Page 30Linked to original sources

USGS2011

Applying monitoring, verification, and accounting techniques to a real-world, enhanced oil recovery operational CO2 leak

The use of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is being tested for oil fields in the Illinois Basin, USA. While this technology has shown promise for improving oil production, it has raised some issues about the safety of CO 2 injection and storage. The Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium (MGSC) organized a Monitoring, Verification, and Accounting (MVA) team to develop and deploy monitoring programs at three EOR sites in Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky, USA. MVA goals include establishing baseline conditions to evaluate potential impacts from CO 2 injection, demonstrating that project activities are protective of human health and the environment, and providing an accurate accounting of stored CO 2 . This paper focuses on the use of MVA techniques in monitoring a small CO 2 leak from a supply line at an EOR facility under real-world conditions. The ability of shallow monitoring techniques to detect and quantify a CO 2 leak under real-world conditions has been largely unproven. In July of 2009, a leak in the pipe supplying pressurized CO 2 to an injection well was observed at an MGSC EOR site located in west-central Kentucky. Carbon dioxide was escaping from the supply pipe located approximately 1 m underground. The leak was discovered visually by site personnel and injection was halted immediately. At its largest extent, the hole created by the leak was approximately 1.9 m long by 1.7 m wide and 0.7 m deep in the land surface. This circumstance provided an excellent opportunity to evaluate the performance of several monitoring techniques including soil CO 2 flux measurements, portable infrared gas analysis, thermal infrared imagery, and aerial hyperspectral imagery. Valuable experience was gained during this effort. Lessons learned included determining (1) hyperspectral imagery was not effective in detecting this relatively small, short-term CO 2 leak, (2) even though injection was halted, the leak remained dynamic and presented a safety risk concern during monitoring activities and, (3) the atmospheric and soil monitoring techniques used were relatively cost-effective, easily and rapidly deployable, and required minimal manpower to set up and maintain for short-term assessments. However, characterization of CO 2 distribution near the land surface resulting from a dynamic leak with widely variable concentrations and fluxes was challenging.

Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky↗

USGS2023

Abiotic and biotic factors reduce the viability of a high-elevation salamander in its native range

Amphibian populations are undergoing worldwide declines, and high-elevation, range-restricted amphibian species may be particularly vulnerable to environmental stressors. In particular, future climate change may have disproportional impacts to these ecosystems. Evaluating the combined effects of abiotic changes and biotic interactions simultaneously is important for forecasting the range of future outcomes. This information is necessary to aid conservation decision-making. We use field data to estimate population demographic parameters for an exemplary high-elevation amphibian species, the federally endangered Shenandoah salamander Plethodon shenandoah . These parameters were entered into a Markov projection model which we used to forecast the future population status of the Shenandoah salamander. We found that if the population maintains its current site colonization and persistence rates, it is at the risk of extinction that could be exacerbated by both climate and interspecific competition. Synthesis and applications. Managers have a fundamental objective directed by official policy of maintaining the species ‘for the foreseeable future’. Our evaluation of multiple hypotheses about population drivers reveals that extinction is projected for this species. Our analysis suggests that considering active management need not depend on resolving the uncertainty.

Virginia↗

USGS2014

Operational earthquake forecasting can enhance earthquake preparedness

We cannot yet predict large earthquakes in the short term with much reliability and skill, but the strong clustering exhibited in seismic sequences tells us that earthquake probabilities are not constant in time; they generally rise and fall over periods of days to years in correlation with nearby seismic activity. Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about these time‐dependent probabilities to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. The goal of OEF is to inform the decisions that people and organizations must continually make to mitigate seismic risk and prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes on time scales from days to decades. To fulfill this role, OEF must provide a complete description of the seismic hazard—ground‐motion exceedance probabilities as well as short‐term rupture probabilities—in concert with the long‐term forecasts of probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis (PSHA).

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS1996

Use of a ground-water flow model with particle tracking to evaluate ground-water vulnerability, Clark County, Washington

A ground-water flow model was used in conjunction with particle tracking to evaluate ground-water vulnerability in Clark County, Washington. Using the particle-tracking program, particles were placed in every cell of the flow model (about 60,000 particles) and tracked backwards in time and space upgradient along flow paths to their recharge points. A new computer program was developed that interfaces the results from a particle-tracking program with a geographic information system (GIS). The GIS was used to display and analyze the particle-tracking results. Ground-water vulnerability was evaluated by selecting parts of the ground-water flow system and combining the results with ancillary information stored in the GIS to determine recharge areas, characteristics of recharge areas, downgradient impact of land use at recharge areas, and age of ground water. Maps of the recharge areas for each hydrogeologic unit illustrate the presence of local, intermediate, or regional ground-water flow systems and emphasize the three-dimensional nature of the ground-water flow system in Clark County. Maps of the recharge points for each hydrogeologic unit were overlaid with maps depicting aquifer sensitivity as determined by DRASTIC (a measure of the pollution potential of ground water, based on the intrinsic characteristics of the near-surface unsaturated and saturated zones) and recharge from on-site waste-disposal systems. A large number of recharge areas were identified, particularly in southern Clark County, that have a high aquifer sensitivity, coincide with areas of recharge from on-site waste-disposal systems, or both. Using the GIS, the characteristics of the recharge areas were related to the downgradient parts of the ground-water system that will eventually receive flow that has recharged through these areas. The aquifer sensitivity, as indicated by DRASTIC, of the recharge areas for downgradient parts of the flow system was mapped for each hydrogeologic unit. A number of public-supply wells in Clark County may be receiving a component of water that recharged in areas that are more conducive to contaminant entry. The aquifer sensitivity maps illustrate a critical deficiency in the DRASTIC methodology: the failure to account for the dynamics of the ground-water flow system. DRASTIC indices calculated for a particular location thus do not necessarily reflect the conditions of the ground-water resources at the recharge areas to that particular location. Each hydrogeologic unit was also mapped to highlight those areas that will eventually receive flow from recharge areas with on-site waste-disposal systems. Most public-supply wells in southern Clark County may eventually receive a component of water that was recharged from on-site waste-disposal systems.Traveltimes from particle tracking were used to estimate the minimum and maximum age of ground water within each model-grid cell. Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC)-age dating of ground water from 51 wells was used to calibrate effective porosity values used for the particle- tracking program by comparison of ground-water ages determined through the use of the CFC-age dating with those calculated by the particle- tracking program. There was a 76 percent agreement in predicting the presence of modern water in the 51 wells as determined using CFCs and calculated by the particle-tracking program. Maps showing the age of ground water were prepared for all the hydrogeologic units. Areas with the youngest ground-water ages are expected to be at greatest risk for contamination from anthropogenic sources. Comparison of these maps with maps of public- supply wells in Clark County indicates that most of these wells may withdraw ground water that is, in part, less than 100 years old, and in many instances less than 10 years old. Results of the analysis showed that a single particle-tracking analysis simulating advective transport can be used to evaluate ground-water vulnerability for any part of a ground-wate

Open-File Report↗

USGS2011

Incorporating parametric uncertainty into population viability analysis models

Uncertainty in parameter estimates from sampling variation or expert judgment can introduce substantial uncertainty into ecological predictions based on those estimates. However, in standard population viability analyses, one of the most widely used tools for managing plant, fish and wildlife populations, parametric uncertainty is often ignored in or discarded from model projections. We present a method for explicitly incorporating this source of uncertainty into population models to fully account for risk in management and decision contexts. Our method involves a two-step simulation process where parametric uncertainty is incorporated into the replication loop of the model and temporal variance is incorporated into the loop for time steps in the model. Using the piping plover, a federally threatened shorebird in the USA and Canada, as an example, we compare abundance projections and extinction probabilities from simulations that exclude and include parametric uncertainty. Although final abundance was very low for all sets of simulations, estimated extinction risk was much greater for the simulation that incorporated parametric uncertainty in the replication loop. Decisions about species conservation (e.g., listing, delisting, and jeopardy) might differ greatly depending on the treatment of parametric uncertainty in population models.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2023

Fluvial delivery and wave resuspension of sediment in a sheltered, urbanized Pacific Northwest estuary

The sequence and timing of sediment delivery and redistribution in coastal systems is important for shoreline stability, ecosystem services, and remediation planning. In temperate estuaries, understanding the role of fluvial sediment delivery and dispersal relative to wind and wave remobilization processes is particularly important to address the fate of contaminants, many of which adsorb to fine particles, and to assess changes in coastal systems under projected changes in climate. Here we present an integrated analysis of observations at multiple timescales to evaluate sediment dynamics and the sedimentary coupling between fluvial and oceanographic processes within Bellingham Bay, Washington, USA, an urban estuary. Time-series data of currents, waves, and turbidity at four moorings along with geochemical data from grab samples and cores of seabed sediment from across the bay are contrasted with the dynamics of the Nooksack River, its fluvial sediment source. Even during large (5-yr return interval) river-flood events, water-column suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) near the bed on the outer delta topset was not correlated with Nooksack River runoff and was instead closely correlated with local wind-wave height. In contrast, near-surface SSC was strongly correlated with fluvial discharge, suggesting intense water-column suspended-sediment stratification during flood events. Grain-size and geochemical ( 7 "> 7 Be and excess 210 "> 210 Pb) results from seabed-sediment samples and historical bathymetric measurements of the subaqueous Nooksack River delta reveal spatial gradients of fluvial and wave influence and sediment-accumulation rates. Analysis of historical bathymetric surveys of the Nooksack River delta combined with the geochemical data reveal that about 75% of the fluvial sediment load can be accounted for in the Bellingham Bay receiving system. Studies of this type in urbanized coastal settings can help address ecological and geological questions regarding the risks from contaminants associated with fine-grained sediment, predict longer-term delta morphological evolution, and inform managers planning future coastal restoration efforts

Washington↗

USGS2019

Air pollution and respiratory hospital admissions in Shiraz, Iran, 2009 to 2015

Air pollution has been identified as one of the most challenging health issues in urban areas worldwide. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between short-term exposure to ambient air pollution and respiratory disease over a long-term period in Shiraz, one of the largest cities in Iran. Methods: hospital admissions due to respiratory diseases (asthma, pneumonia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD) and pleural effusion) in residents of Shiraz between March 21, 2009 and March 20, 2015 were included. Demographics for each patient and meta data to include principal meteorological variables (temperature and relative humidity) and five ambient pollutants (CO, O 3 , SO 2 , NO 2 , and PM 10 ) were also included. Statistical analysis was performed by Poisson regression in single-pollutant generalized linear model with principal component analysis (GLPCA) to analyze the relationship between pollutants and hospital admissions at the 0–9 cumulative lag day period. Pearson correlation test was used to determine the relationship between different pollutants, temperature and humidity. Results It was found that the highest increase in asthma admission was related to PM 10 (relative risk (RR) = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.17, 1.47). For COPD, the rate of hospital visits significantly increased with the increase in NO 2 concentration (RR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.09.1.27). In the children's hospital, O 3 (RR = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.06, 1.47) and SO 2 (RR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.07, 1.28) affected the asthma admissions and all contaminants (highest RR observed was for NO 2 (RR = 1.28 95% CI = 1.18, 1.40) affected pneumonia admissions on cumulative lag days of 0–9. Conclusions: These data confirm an association between ambient air pollutants and hospital admissions due to respiratory disease.

Shiraz↗

USGS2007

Assessments of habitat preferences and quality depend on spatial scale and metrics of fitness

1. Identifying the habitat features that influence habitat selection and enhance fitness is critical for effective management. Ecological theory predicts that habitat choices should be adaptive, such that fitness is enhanced in preferred habitats. However, studies often report mismatches between habitat preferences and fitness consequences across a wide variety of taxa based on a single spatial scale and/or a single fitness component. 2. We examined whether habitat preferences of a declining shrub steppe songbird, the Brewer's sparrow Spizella breweri, were adaptive when multiple reproductive fitness components and spatial scales (landscape, territory and nest patch) were considered. 3. We found that birds settled earlier and in higher densities, together suggesting preference, in landscapes with greater shrub cover and height. Yet nest success was not higher in these landscapes; nest success was primarily determined by nest predation rates. Thus landscape preferences did not match nest predation risk. Instead, nestling mass and the number of nesting attempts per pair increased in preferred landscapes, raising the possibility that landscapes were chosen on the basis of food availability rather than safe nest sites. 4. At smaller spatial scales (territory and nest patch), birds preferred different habitat features (i.e. density of potential nest shrubs) that reduced nest predation risk and allowed greater season-long reproductive success. 5. Synthesis and applications. Habitat preferences reflect the integration of multiple environmental factors across multiple spatial scales, and individuals may have more than one option for optimizing fitness via habitat selection strategies. Assessments of habitat quality for management prescriptions should ideally include analysis of diverse fitness consequences across multiple ecologically relevant spatial scales. ?? 2007 The Authors.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2023

Estimating population viability of the northern Great Plains piping plover population considering updated population structure, climate change, and intensive management

One challenge in wildlife conservation is understanding how various threats and management actions may influence long-term population viability. This is particularly evident when there is considerable uncertainty regarding population structure and vital rates. Reassessment of current knowledge and population trends is necessary for listed species to improve management actions that benefit conservation. We present an updated population viability analysis for northern Great Plains piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus circumcinctus ) based on the latest scientific data on survival, fecundity, and connectivity. Further, we explore the consequences of potential management actions and the stochastic effects of global climate change on population viability through changes in survival and fecundity. Our results predict elevated risks of extinction after 50 years (0.088 – 0.373) compared to previous predictions (0.033) based on assumed conditions of low connectivity among four major breeding groups structured as a metapopulation. We explored eight scenarios based on empirically-derived, higher connectivity rates and found that the northern Great Plains population never had a mean predicted population growth rate greater than one (0.946 – 0.996). Two scenarios that simulated a reduction in adult survival showed higher extinction probabilities (0.267 – 0.373), whereas two other scenarios that simulated an increase in fecundity exhibited lower extinction probabilities (0.088 – 0.103). These results indicate that viability of the northern Great Plains population of piping plovers could be improved with management actions that increase fecundity as long as adult survival is not simultaneously reduced. Lastly, breeding groups appeared to function less independently when connectivity rates were higher, as the breeding population was divided evenly among breeding groups. This indicates that the presumed metapopulation structure of our study system may need to be re-evaluated, and that empirically-based estimates of connectivity are essential to assessing population viability of mobile species that exhibit a spatially structured distribution.

Frontiers in Bird Science↗

USGS2014

U.S. Geological Survey's ShakeCast: A cloud-based future

When an earthquake occurs, the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) ShakeMap portrays the extent of potentially damaging shaking. In turn, the ShakeCast system, a freely-available, post-earthquake situational awareness application, automatically retrieves earthquake shaking data from ShakeMap, compares intensity measures against users’ facilities, sends notifications of potential damage to responsible parties, and generates facility damage assessment maps and other web-based products for emergency managers and responders. ShakeCast is particularly suitable for earthquake planning and response purposes by Departments of Transportation (DOTs), critical facility and lifeline utilities, large businesses, engineering and financial services, and loss and risk modelers. Recent important developments to the ShakeCast system and its user base are described. The newly-released Version 3 of the ShakeCast system encompasses advancements in seismology, earthquake engineering, and information technology applicable to the legacy ShakeCast installation (Version 2). In particular, this upgrade includes a full statistical fragility analysis framework for general assessment of structures as part of the near real-time system, direct access to additional earthquake-specific USGS products besides ShakeMap (PAGER, DYFI?, tectonic summary, etc.), significant improvements in the graphical user interface, including a console view for operations centers, and custom, user-defined hazard and loss modules. The release also introduces a new adaption option to port ShakeCast to the "cloud". Employing Amazon Web Services (AWS), users now have a low-cost alternative to local hosting, by fully offloading hardware, software, and communication obligations to the cloud. Other advantages of the "ShakeCast Cloud" strategy include (1) Reliability and robustness of offsite operations, (2) Scalability naturally accommodated, (3), Serviceability, problems reduced due to software and hardware uniformity, (4) Testability, freely available for new users, (5) Remotely supported, allowing expert-facilitated maintenance, (6) Adoptability, simplified with disk images, and (7) Security, built in at the very high level associated with AWS. The ShakeCast user base continues to expand and broaden. For example, Caltrans, the prototypical ShakeCast user and development supporter, has been providing guidance to other DOTs on the use of the National Bridge Inventory (NBI) database to implement fully-functional ShakeCast systems in their states. A long-term goal underway is to further "connect the DOTs" via a Transportation Pooled Fund (TPF) with participating state DOTs. We also review some of the many other users and uses of ShakeCast. Lastly, on the hazard input front, we detail related ShakeMap improvements and ongoing advancements in estimating the likelihood of shaking-induced secondary hazards at structures, facilities, bridges, and along roadways due to landslides and liquefaction, and implemented within the ShakeCast framework.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2025

Reduced Atlantic reef growth past 2 °C warming amplifies sea-level impacts

Coral reefs form complex physical structures that can help to mitigate coastal flooding risk 1,2 . This function will be reduced by sea-level rise (SLR) and impaired reef growth caused by climate change and local anthropogenic stressors 3 . Water depths above reef surfaces are projected to increase as a result, but the magnitudes and timescales of this increase are poorly constrained, which limits modelling of coastal vulnerability 4,5 . Here we analyse fossil reef deposits to constrain links between reef ecology and growth potential across more than 400 tropical western Atlantic sites, and assess the magnitudes of resultant above-reef increases in water depth through to 2100 under various shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) emission scenarios. Our analysis predicts that more than 70% of tropical western Atlantic reefs will transition into net erosional states by 2040, but that if warming exceeds 2 °C (SSP2–4.5 and higher), nearly all reefs (at least 99%) will be eroding by 2100. The divergent trajectories of reef growth and SLR will thus magnify the effects of SLR; increases in water depth of around 0.3–0.5 m above the present are projected under all warming scenarios by 2060, but depth increases of 0.7–1.2 m are predicted by 2100 under scenarios in which warming surpasses 2 °C. This would increase the risk of flooding along vulnerable reef-fronted coasts and modify nearshore hydrodynamics and ecosystems. Reef restoration offers one pathway back to higher reef growth 6,7 , but would dampen the effects of SLR in 2100 only by around 0.3–0.4 m, and only when combined with aggressive climate mitigation.

Florida↗

USGS2016

Indications of a positive feedback between coastal development and beach nourishment

Beach nourishment, a method for mitigating coastal storm damage or chronic erosion by deliberately replacing sand on an eroded beach, has been the leading form of coastal protection in the U.S. for four decades. However, investment in hazard protection can have the unintended consequence of encouraging development in places especially vulnerable to damage. In a comprehensive, parcel-scale analysis of all shorefront single-family homes in the state of Florida, we find that houses in nourishing zones are significantly larger and more numerous than in non-nourishing zones. The predominance of larger homes in nourishing zones suggests a positive feedback between nourishment and development that is compounding coastal risk in zones already characterized by high vulnerability.

Earth's Future↗

USGS1993

Uptake of planar polychlorinated biphenyls and 2,3,7,8-substituted polychlorinated dibenzofurans and dibenzo- p -dioxins by birds nesting in the lower Fox River and Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA

The uptake of persistent polychlorinated hydrocarbons (PCHs) by four avian species was investigated at upper trophic levels of two aquatic food chains of the lower Fox River and Green Bay, Wisconsin. Accumulation of total and specific planar polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin (PCDDs), and H411E rat hepatoma cell bioassay-derived 2,37,8-tetrachlorodibenzop-dioxin equivalents (TCDD-EQ) was evaluated in Forster's tern ( Sterna forsteri ) and common tern ( Sterna hirundo ) chicks, and in tree swallow ( Tachycineta bicolor ) and red-winged blackbird ( Agelaius phoeniceus ) nestlings from colonies nesting in several locations within the watershed. Concentrations of the PCHs were greatest in eggs and chicks of the two tern species, less in the tree swallows and least in the red-winged blackbirds. Young of all four species accumulated total PCBs, PCB congeners 77, 105, 126, and 169, and TCDD-EQ. The young birds also accumulated small concentrations of several 2,3,7,8-sbustituted PCDF and PCDD congeners. Uptake rates for certain of the PCHs for the Forster's tern chicks were: 15 μg/day for total PCBs, 70, 200, 6.5, and 0.14 ng/day for PCB congeners 77, 105, 126, and 169, respectively, and 270 μg/day for TCDD-EQ. Principal components analysis revealed that the patterns of PCH concentrations in the samples were influenced by species of bird, their age (or length of exposure) and nesting location. Collectively, our findings demonstrate that exposure of avian species to contaminants derived from aquatic food chains can be characterized and quantified for the purposes of ecological risk assessment.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2021

Group density, disease, and season shape territory size and overlap of social carnivores

1. The spatial organization of a population can influence the spread of information, behaviour, and pathogens. Territory size and territory overlap, components of spatial organization, provide key information as these metrics may be indicators of habitat quality, resource dispersion, contact rates, and environmental risk (e.g., indirectly transmitted pathogens). Furthermore, sociality and behaviour can also shape space use, and subsequently, how space use and habitat quality together impact demography. 2. Our study aims to identify factors shaping the spatial organization of wildlife populations and assess the impact of epizootics on space use. We also use network analysis to describe spatial organization and connectivity of social groups. 3. Here, we assessed the seasonal spatial organization of Serengeti lions and Yellowstone wolves at the group level. We examine the factors predicting mean territory size and mean territory overlap for each population using generalized additive models. We further explore the mechanisms by which disease perturbations could cause changes in spatial organization. 4. We demonstrate that lions and wolves were similar in that group-level factors, such as number of groups, shaped spatial organization more than population-level factors, such as population density. Factors shaping territory size were slightly different than factors shaping territory overlap; for example, wolf pack size was an important predictor of territory overlap, but not territory size. Lion spatial networks were more highly connected, while wolf spatial networks varied seasonally. We found that resource dispersion may be more important for driving territory size and overlap for wolves than for lions. Additionally, canine distemper epizootics may alter lion spatial organization, highlighting the importance of including behavioural and movement ecology in studies of pathogen transmission dynamics. 5. We provide insight about when we might expect to observe the impacts of resource dispersion, disease perturbations, and other ecological factors on spatial organization. Our work highlights the importance of monitoring and managing social carnivore populations at the group level. Future research should elucidate the complex relationships between demographics, social and spatial structure, abiotic and biotic conditions, and pathogen infections.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2001

Negligible risk associated with the movement of processed rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss (Walbaum), from an infectious haematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) endemic area

To assess the risk of transmission of infectious haematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) associated with the movement of processed rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, from an area where the virus is endemic, 240 freshly eviscerated fish (225-500 g) exhibiting spinal curvature or spinal compression types of deformities were tested for IHNV by virus isolation and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) techniques. Commercially produced rainbow trout, approximately 1-year-old, that exhibited spinal deformities were considered to have had a high likelihood of having survived an outbreak of IHN. Serological analysis of fish exhibiting spinal curvature or spinal compression types of deformities for anti-IHNV antibodies resulted, in 71 and 50% of the serum samples, respectively, with detectable neutralization activity suggesting previous infection with IHNV. A portion of the skin and muscle in the area of the deformity was collected, as well as brain tissue from each commercially processed fish. Tissue homogenates were tested for IHNV using the epithelioma papulosum cyprini (EPC) cell line pretreated with polyethylene glycol and the chinook salmon embryo (CHSE-214) cell line using standard methods. Nested, reverse transcriptase (RT)-PCR for the detection of IHNV used the central 1231 bp portion of the glycoprotein (G) challenge studies and is suggested as a mechanism responsible for virus clearance. These results provide scientific information that can be used to assess the risk associated with the movement of processed rainbow trout from an IHNV endemic area.

Journal of Fish Diseases↗

USGS2003

Anthropogenic constituents in shallow ground water in the Upper Illinois River Basin

The potential for anthropogenic effects on ground water is becoming of increasing concern as land throughout the Nation becomes more urbanized. The possible contamination of water resources by volatile organic compounds (VOCs), pesticides (including transformation products), and nitrate, from current urban land use and past agricultural land use, is of particular concern. As part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment program, water samples for analysis of VOCs, pesticides, and nitrate were collected from 43 wells in shallow (175 feet deep or less) ground water in glacial deposits overlying a major bedrock aquifer in recently urbanized areas in the Chicago, Ill. and Milwaukee, Wis. metropolitan counties.Constituents were reported using two reporting levels. For the laboratory reporting level, the risk of a false positive or false negative detection is less than or equal to 1 percent. For the information-rich method level, estimated concentrations are identified positively and are qualified to be present on the basis of quality-control criteria, but have a higher risk of false positive detections.VOCs were detected in 32 percent (12 of 38) of the well samples with 15 detections of 7 VOCs, based on laboratory reporting levels. Concentrations ranged from 0.03 (estimated) to 4.6 micrograms per liter (?g/L), with a median concentration of 0.13 ?g/L. Methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) and trichloromethane (chloroform) were the most common with detections in 10 percent (4 of 38) of the well samples. Using information-rich method reporting levels, VOCs were detected in 74 percent of the wells with 37 detections of 15 VOCs. Chloroform was most common with detections in 24 percent (9 of 38) of the well samples.Pesticides were detected in 62 percent (26 of 42) of the well samples with 83 detections of 20 pesticides, based on laboratory reporting levels for the respective constituent. Concentrations ranged from 0.003 (estimated) to 3.6 (estimated) ?g/L, with a median concentration of 0.06 ?g/L. Deethylatrazine was most common with detections in 43 percent (18 of 42) of the well samples. Using information-rich method reporting levels, pesticides were detected in 74 percent (31 of 42) of the well samples with 134 detections of 29 pesticides. Deethylatrazine was most common with detections in 45 percent (19 of 42) of the well samples.Nitrate concentrations ranged from less than 0.047 to 12.5 milligrams per liter (mg/L) with a median concentration of 0.068 mg/L. Nitrate concentrations were greater than 2 mg/L in 30 percent (13 of 43) of the wells sampled. Total VOC detections did not correlate well (less than Spearman Rank correlation value of plus or minus 0.10) with well depth, age, or dissolved oxygen. Total pesticide detections did correlate with dissolved oxygen and negatively correlated with well depth. Nitrate concentrations correlated with dissolved oxygen and apparent recharge date.No VOC or pesticide concentrations exceeded U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking-water standards and only one nitrate 2 Anthropogenic Constituents in Shallow Ground Water in the Upper Illinois River Basin detection exceeded the standards. However, of the 43 wells sampled for VOCs or pesticides using information-rich methods, or nitrate at laboratory reporting levels, 40 of 43 (93 percent) well samples had at least one detection of a VOC or pesticide, or a detection of nitrate above 2.0 mg/L. This result indicates that most of these wells are anthropogenically affected, but presently not at U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking-water regulation levels of concern. The wells sampled were not public drinking-water supplies; therefore, these wells were not subject to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking-water regulations.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2015

Collaborative decision-analytic framework to maximize resilience of tidal marshes to climate change

Decision makers that are responsible for stewardship of natural resources face many challenges, which are complicated by uncertainty about impacts from climate change, expanding human development, and intensifying land uses. A systematic process for evaluating the social and ecological risks, trade-offs, and cobenefits associated with future changes is critical to maximize resilience and conserve ecosystem services. This is particularly true in coastal areas where human populations and landscape conversion are increasing, and where intensifying storms and sea-level rise pose unprecedented threats to coastal ecosystems. We applied collaborative decision analysis with a diverse team of stakeholders who preserve, manage, or restore tidal marshes across the San Francisco Bay estuary, California, USA, as a case study. Specifically, we followed a structured decision-making approach, and we using expert judgment developed alternative management strategies to increase the capacity and adaptability to manage tidal marsh resilience while considering uncertainties through 2050. Because sea-level rise projections are relatively confident to 2050, we focused on uncertainties regarding intensity and frequency of storms and funding. Elicitation methods allowed us to make predictions in the absence of fully compatible models and to assess short- and long-term trade-offs. Specifically we addressed two questions. (1) Can collaborative decision analysis lead to consensus among a diverse set of decision makers responsible for environmental stewardship and faced with uncertainties about climate change, funding, and stakeholder values? (2) What is an optimal strategy for the conservation of tidal marshes, and what strategy is robust to the aforementioned uncertainties? We found that when taking this approach, consensus was reached among the stakeholders about the best management strategies to maintain tidal marsh integrity. A Bayesian decision network revealed that a strategy considering sea-level rise and storms explicitly in wetland restoration planning and designs was optimal, and it was robust to uncertainties about management effectiveness and budgets. We found that strategies that avoided explicitly accounting for future climate change had the lowest expected performance based on input from the team. Our decision-analytic framework is sufficiently general to offer an adaptable template, which can be modified for use in other areas that include a diverse and engaged stakeholder group.

California↗

USGS2015

Resilience and risk: a demographic model to inform conservation planning for polar bears

Climate change is having widespread ecological effects, including loss of Arctic sea ice. This has led to listing of the polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) and other ice-dependent marine mammals under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). Methods are needed to evaluate the effects of climate change on population persistence to inform recovery planning for listed species. For polar bears, this includes understanding interactions between climate and secondary factors, such as subsistence harvest, which provide economic, nutritional, or cultural value to humans. We developed a matrix-based demographic model for polar bears that can be used for population viability analysis and to evaluate the effects of human-caused removals. This model includes density-dependence (the potential for a declining environmental carrying capacity), density-independent limitation, and sex- and age-specific harvest vulnerabilities. We estimated values of adult female survival (0.93–0.96), recruitment (number of yearling cubs per adult female; 0.1–0.3), and carrying capacity (>250 animals) that must be maintained for a hypothetical population to achieve a 90-percent probability of persistence over 100 years. We also developed a state-dependent management framework, based on harvest theory and the potential biological removal method, by linking the demographic model to simulated population assessments. This framework can be used to estimate the maximum sustainable rate of human-caused removals, including subsistence harvest, which maintains a population at its maximum net productivity level. The framework also can be used to calculate a recommended sustainable harvest rate, which generally is lower than the maximum sustainable rate and depends on management objectives, the precision and frequency of population data, and risk tolerance. The historical standard 4.5-percent harvest rate for polar bears, at a 2:1 male-to-female ratio, is reasonable under many biological and management conditions, although lower or higher rates may be appropriate in some cases. Our modeling results suggest that harvest of polar bears is unlikely to accelerate population declines that result from declining carrying capacity caused by sea-ice loss, provided that several conditions are met: (1) the sustainable harvest rate reflects the population’s intrinsic growth rate, and the corresponding harvest level is obtained by applying this rate to an estimate of population size; (2) the sustainable harvest rate reflects the quality of population data (e.g., lower harvest when data are poor); and (3) the level of human-caused removals can be adjusted. Finally, our results suggest that stopgap measures (e.g., further reduction or cessation of harvest when the population size is less than a critical threshold) may be necessary to minimize the incremental risk associated with harvest, if environmental conditions are deteriorating rapidly. We suggest that the demographic model and approaches presented here can serve as a template for conservation planning for polar bears and other species facing similar challenges.

Open-File Report↗