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Attributes for MRB_E2RF1 Catchments by Major River Basins in the Conterminous United States: NLCD 2001 Imperviousness

This tabular data set represents the mean percent impervious surface from the Imperviousness Layer of the National Land Cover Dataset 2001, (LaMotte and Wieczorek, 2010), compiled for every MRB_E2RF1 catchment of selected Major River Basins (MRBs, Crawford and others, 2006). The source data set represents imperviousness for the conterminous United States for 2001. The Imperviousness Layer of the National Land Cover Data Set for 2001 was produced through a cooperative project conducted by the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics (MRLC) Consortium. The MRLC Consortium is a partnership of Federal agencies (http://www.mrlc.gov), consisting of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), the National Park Service (NPS), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), and the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS). The MRB_E2RF1 catchments are based on a modified version of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) ERF1_2 and include enhancements to support national and regional-scale surface-water quality modeling (Nolan and others, 2002;Brakebill and others, 2011). Data were compiled for every MRB_E2RF1 catchment for the conterminous United States covering New England and Mid-Atlantic (MRB1), South Atlantic-Gulf and Tennessee (MRB2), the Great Lakes, Ohio, Upper Mississippi, and Souris-Red-Rainy (MRB3), the Missouri (MRB4), the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas-White-Red, and Texas-Gulf (MRB5), the Rio Grande, Colorado, and the Great basin (MRB6), the Pacific Northwest (MRB7) river basins, and California (MRB8).

Data Series

Attributes for MRB_E2RF1 Catchments by Major River Basins in the Conterminous United States: NLCD 2001 Land Use and Land Cover

This tabular data set represents the estimated area of land use and land cover from the National Land Cover Dataset 2001 (LaMotte, 2008), compiled for every MRB_E2RF1 catchment of the Major River Basins (MRBs, Crawford and others, 2006). The source data set represents land use and land cover for the conterminous United States for 2001. The National Land Cover Data Set for 2001 was produced through a cooperative project conducted by the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics (MRLC) Consortium. The MRLC Consortium is a partnership of Federal agencies (http://www.mrlc.gov), consisting of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), the National Park Service (NPS), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), and the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS). The MRB_E2RF1 catchments are based on a modified version of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) ERF1_2 and include enhancements to support national and regional-scale surface-water quality modeling (Nolan and others, 2002; Brakebill and others, 2011). Data were compiled for every MRB_E2RF1 catchment for the conterminous United States covering the South Atlantic-Gulf and Tennessee (MRB2), the Great Lakes, Ohio, Upper Mississippi, and Souris-Red-Rainy (MRB3), the Missouri (MRB4), the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas-White-Red, and Texas-Gulf (MRB5) and the Pacific Northwest (MRB7) river basins.

Data Series

The influence of local- and landscape-level factors on wetland breeding birds in the Prairie Pothole Region of North and South Dakota

We examined the relationship between local- (wetland) and landscape-level factors and breeding bird abundances on 1,190 depressional wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of North and South Dakota during the breeding seasons in 1995–97. The surveyed wetlands were selected from five wetland classes (alkali, permanent, semipermanent, seasonal, or temporary), two wetland types (natural or restored), and two landowner groups (private or Federal). We recorded 133 species of birds in the surveyed wetlands during the 3 years. We analyzed the nine most common (or focal) species (that is, species that were present in 25 percent or more of the 1,190 wetlands): the Red-winged Blackbird ( Agelaius phoeniceus ), Blue-winged Teal ( Anas discors ), Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos ), American Coot ( Fulica americana ), Gadwall ( Anas strepera ), Common Yellowthroat ( Geothlypis trichas ), Yellow-headed Blackbird ( Xanthocephalus xanthocephalus ), Northern Shoveler ( Anas clypeata ), and Savannah Sparrow ( Passerculus sandwichensis ). Our results emphasize the ecological value of all wetland classes, natural and restored wetlands, and publicly and privately owned wetlands in this region, including wetlands that are generally smaller and shallower (that is, temporary and seasonal wetlands) and thus most vulnerable to drainage. Blue-winged Teal, Northern Shoveler, Gadwall, Common Yellowthroat, and Red-winged Blackbird had higher abundances on Federal than on private wetlands. Abundances differed among wetland classes for seven of the nine focal species: Blue-winged Teal, Northern Shoveler, Mallard, American Coot, Common Yellowthroat, Yellow-headed Blackbird, Red-winged Blackbird. American Coot had higher abundances on restored wetlands than on natural wetlands overall, and Gadwall and Common Yellowthroat had higher abundances on private restored wetlands than on private natural wetlands. The Common Yellowthroat was the only species that had higher abundances on restored private wetlands than on restored Federal wetlands. After adjusting for wetland size and the date and location of the surveys, our results demonstrated that incorporating wetland- and landscape-level factors in models can improve our ability to predict abundances of wetland birds in this region. The top model for eight of the nine focal species included wetland- and landscape-level factors, whereas the best model for Blue-winged Teal included only wetland-level attributes. Although local factors (for example, percent open water or emergent vegetation) in individual wetlands are important factors for some wetland breeding birds, it is important that natural resource managers consider landscape-level factors beyond the local factors in their conservation plans for wetland birds.

North Dakota, South Dakota

Capacitively Coupled Resistivity Survey of Selected Irrigation Canals Within the North Platte River Valley, Western Nebraska and Eastern Wyoming, 2004 and 2007-2009

Due to water resources of portions of the North Platte River basin being designated as over-appropriated by the State of Nebraska Department of Natural Resources (DNR), the North Platte Natural Resources District (NPNRD), in cooperation with the DNR, is developing an Integrated Management Plan (IMP) for groundwater and surface water in the NPNRD. As part of the IMP, a three-dimensional numerical finite difference groundwater-flow model is being developed to evaluate the effectiveness of using leakage of water from selected irrigation canal systems to manage groundwater recharge. To determine the relative leakage potential of the upper 8 m of the selected irrigation canals within the North Platte River valley in western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming, the U.S. Geological Survey performed a land-based capacitively coupled (CC) resistivity survey along nearly 630 km of 13 canals and 2 laterals in 2004 and from 2007 to 2009. These 13 canals were selected from the 27 irrigation canals in the North Platte valley due to their location, size, irrigated area, and relation to the active North Platte valley flood plain and related paleochannels and terrace deposits where most of the saturated thickness in the alluvium exists. The resistivity data were then compared to continuous cores at 62 test holes down to a maximum depth of 8 m. Borehole electrical conductivity (EC) measurements at 36 of those test holes were done to correlate resistivity values with grain sizes in order to determine potential vertical leakage along the canals as recharge to the underlying alluvial aquifer. The data acquired in 2004, as well as the 25 test hole cores from 2004, are presented elsewhere. These data were reprocessed using the same updated processing and inversion algorithms used on the 2007 through 2009 datasets, providing a consistent and complete dataset for all collection periods. Thirty-seven test hole cores and borehole electrical conductivity measurements were acquired based on the 2008 data. This report presents comparisons between the CC resistivity data and results from the 37 test holes and includes all binned and inverted CC resistivity datasets from all four years as well as the EC log data for the 37 test holes acquired in 2008 and 2009. The information gained from these data can help State and local water managers and scientists better understand the characteristics of the shallow subsurface underlying the irrigation canals so that the water resources can be managed more effectively.

Scientific Investigations Report

Is there room for all of us? Renewable energy and Xerospermophilus mohavensis

Mohave ground squirrels Xerospermophilus mohavensis Merriam are small ground-dwelling rodents that have a highly restricted range in the northwest Mojave Desert, California, USA. Their small natural range is further reduced by habitat loss from agriculture, urban development, military training and recreational activities. Development of wind and solar resources for renewable energy has the potential to further reduce existing habitat. We used maximum entropy habitat models with observation data to describe current potential habitat in the context of future renewable energy development in the region. While 16% of historic habitat has been impacted by, or lost to, urbanization at present, an additional 10% may be affected by renewable energy development in the near future. Our models show that X. mohavensis habitat suitability is higher in areas slated for renewable energy development than in surrounding areas. We provide habitat maps that can be used to develop sampling designs, evaluate conservation corridors and inform development planning in the region.

California, Nevada

The benefits of big-team science for conservation: Lessons learned from trinational monarch butterfly collaborations

Many pressing conservation issues are complex problems caused by multiple social and environmental drivers; their resolution is aided by interdisciplinary teams of scientists, decision makers, and stakeholders working together. In these situations, how do we generate science to effectively guide conservation (resource management and policy) decisions? This paper describes elements of successful big-team science in conservation, as well as shortcomings and lessons learned, based on our work with the monarch butterfly ( Danaus plexippus ) in North America. We summarize literature on effective science teams, extracting information about elements of success, effective implementation approaches, and barriers or pitfalls. We then describe recent and ongoing conservation science for the monarch butterfly in North America. We focus primarily on the activities of the Monarch Conservation Science Partnership–an international collaboration of interdisciplinary scientists, policy experts and natural resource managers spanning government, non-governmental and academic institutions—which developed science to inform imperilment status, recovery options, and monitoring strategies. We couch these science efforts in the adaptative management framework of Strategic Habitat Conservation, the business model for conservation employed by the US Fish and Wildlife Service to inform decision-making needs identified by stakeholders from Canada, the United States, and Mexico. We conclude with elements critical to effective big-team conservation science, discuss why science teams focused on applied conservation problems are unique relative to science teams focusing on traditional or theoretical research, and list benefits of big team science in conservation.

Frontiers in Environmental Science

Oil and gas resource potential north of the Arctic Circle

The US Geological Survey recently assessed the potential for undiscovered conventional petroleum in the Arctic. Using a new map compilation of sedimentary elements, the area north of the Arctic Circle was subdivided into 70 assessment units, 48 of which were quantitatively assessed. The Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal (CARA) was a geologically based, probabilistic study that relied mainly on burial history analysis and analogue modelling to estimate sizes and numbers of undiscovered oil and gas accumulations. The results of the CARA suggest the Arctic is gas-prone with an estimated 770–2990 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered conventional natural gas, most of which is in Russian territory. On an energy-equivalent basis, the quantity of natural gas is more than three times the quantity of oil and the largest undiscovered gas field is expected to be about 10 times the size of the largest undiscovered oil field. In addition to gas, the gas accumulations may contain an estimated 39 billion barrels of liquids. The South Kara Sea is the most prospective gas assessment unit, but giant gas fields containing more than 6 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas are possible at a 50% chance in 10 assessment units. Sixty per cent of the estimated undiscovered oil resource is in just six assessment units, of which the Alaska Platform, with 31% of the resource, is the most prospective. Overall, the Arctic is estimated to contain between 44 and 157 billion barrels of recoverable oil. Billion barrel oil fields are possible at a 50% chance in seven assessment units. Undiscovered oil resources could be significant to the Arctic nations, but are probably not sufficient to shift the world oil balance away from the Middle East.

Geological Society Memoir

Response in the water quality of Delavan Lake, Wisconsin, to changes in phosphorus loading—Setting new goals for loading from its drainage basin

During 1989–92, an extensive rehabilitation project was completed in and around Delavan Lake, Wisconsin, to improve the lake’s water quality. However, in 2016, the lake was listed by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources as impaired for excessive algal growth (high chlorophyll a concentrations), and high phosphorus input was listed as its likely cause. In addition, the recent (2017–21) mean summer water clarity (as measured with a Secchi disk) was shallower than the goal set by the community (3.0 meters). Based primarily on flow and water-quality data collected in Jackson Creek, which is the main tributary of the lake, the mean annual phosphorus loading to the lake during water years (WYs) 2017–21 was 6,570 kilograms per year (kg/yr), and 306 kg/yr came from uncontrollable sources (atmospheric deposition and groundwater). Phosphorus loading during these years was about 48 percent higher than the long-term mean loading from WY 1984 to WY 2021. Based on results from Canfield-Bachmann phosphorus models, Carlson trophic state index relations, and the Jones and Bachmann chlorophyll a relation, external phosphorus loading would need to be decreased from 6,570 to 5,270 kg/yr (a 21-percent reduction in the potentially controllable external phosphorus load from the base period of WYs 2017–21) for chlorophyll a concentrations greater than 20 micrograms per liter to be detected no more than 5.0 percent of the time (the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources criterion for chlorophyll a impairment for the lake). Based on Carlson trophic state index relations, external loading would need to be decreased from 6,570 to 4,380 kg/yr (a 35-percent reduction in the potentially controllable external phosphorus load) for summer mean Secchi depths to increase to 3.0 meters. Therefore, for Delavan Lake to reach the water-quality criteria for impairment and the goals for all three water-quality constituents, a 35-percent reduction in the potentially controllable phosphorus load is needed, which equates to a reduction in total phosphorus loading from 6,570 to 4,380 kg/yr. A 35-percent reduction in phosphorus loading to improve the water quality of Delavan Lake is less than the 49-percent reduction in phosphorus loading required for the area near Delavan Lake to improve the water quality of the Rock River and its tributaries indicated in the Rock River total maximum daily load.

Wisconsin

Hydrology of the Yucaipa groundwater subbasin: Characterization and integrated numerical model, San Bernardino and Riverside Counties, California

Executive Summary Water management in the Santa Ana River watershed in San Bernardino and Riverside Counties in southern California is a complex task with various water purveyors navigating geographic, geologic, hydrologic, and political challenges to provide a reliable water supply to stakeholders. As the population has increased throughout southern California, so has the demand for water. The Yucaipa groundwater subbasin (hereafter referred to as “Yucaipa subbasin”), one of nine groundwater subbasins in what the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) refers to as the Upper Santa Ana Valley groundwater basin (California Department of Water Resources, 2016; the DWR naming convention is used within this report), is no exception; steady population growth since the 1940s and changes in water use has forced local water purveyors to regularly adapt their water infrastructure to meet demand. Groundwater has historically been the dominant source of water in the Yucaipa subbasin although recently, imported water via the California State Water Project has augmented the total water supply. Despite the influx of imported water, overall demand for groundwater continues to rise, and there is concern by local water managers that groundwater levels may adversely impact water supply and (or) decline to a point where it will be uneconomical to produce water, severely limiting the ability of local agencies to meet water-supply demand. To better understand the hydrogeology and water resources in the Yucaipa subbasin, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the San Bernardino Valley Municipal Water District initiated a cooperative study to understand the hydrogeologic system of the Yucaipa subbasin and in the encompassing Yucaipa Valley watershed (YVW). A three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model was constructed to quantify the structure and extent of hydrogeologic units. Historical and present-day groundwater conditions were characterized to evaluate the groundwater-flow system. Lastly, the Yucaipa Integrated Hydrological Model (YIHM) was developed to simulate the integrated surface-water and groundwater systems, including natural and anthropogenic (that is, human influenced) recharge and discharge throughout the study area from 1947 to 2014. The Yucaipa subbasin is an inland groundwater basin located about 12 miles (mi) southeast of the City of San Bernardino and about 75 mi east of Los Angeles, California. The subbasin encompasses about 39 square miles (mi 2 ), including the City of Yucaipa. The geographic extent of the Yucaipa subbasin was established by the California Department of Water Resources, who defined the boundaries of the subbasin based on hydrogeologic transitions between crystalline rock and basin-fill sediments, active fault strands, surface-water drainage divides, and a portion of an adjudicated groundwater management boundary. Two groundwater subbasins of the Upper Santa Ana Valley groundwater basin are adjacent to the Yucaipa subbasin, the San Bernardino groundwater subbasin to the west and the San Timoteo groundwater subbasin to the south. The Yucaipa subbasin is encompassed by the YVW, which is in turn comprised of three sub-watersheds that represent surface-water flow across and within the Yucaipa subbasin. Although the Yucaipa subbasin is the specific area of interest for this study, the entire YVW was considered for the purposes of characterizing the hydrogeology of the Yucaipa subbasin and for development of the YIHM. The purposes of this report are to (1) describe the hydrologic and hydrogeologic settings of the Yucaipa subbasin and aquifer system, (2) describe the construction and calibration of the fully coupled groundwater and surface-water flow model for the Yucaipa subbasin and the encompassing YVW, referred to as the YIHM, and (3) present numerical results, including water budgets and hydraulic heads, and the effect of pumping and climate stresses (precipitation and temperature) on water-budget components.

California

Southern sea otter range expansion and habitat use in the Santa Barbara Channel, California

The re-colonization of the Santa Barbara channel by sea otters brings these ESA-listed marine mammals closer to active oil and gas production facilities, shipping lanes and naturally occurring oil and gas seeps. However, the degree to which sea otters may actually be affected by human-caused oil spills or exposure to natural oil seeps is currently unknown. Between 2012 and 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey and collaborating agencies conducted a telemetry-based study of sea otters in Santa Barbara channel, in order to provide critical information for resource managers (specifically the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, henceforth BOEM, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, henceforth USFWS) about the spatial ecology, population status, and potential population threats to sea otters in Santa Barbara Channel, with particular reference to exposure to manmade structures and sources of oil and natural gas. Analysis of spatial monitoring data using a Bayesian-based synoptic model allowed for description of sea otter home ranges, identification of hot-spots of use, and insights into habitat selection behavior by male and female sea otters. Important findings included the deeper modal depth preferred by males versus females, strong preferences by both sexes for areas with persistent kelp canopy, and greater use of soft-sediment areas by males. The synoptic model also provided the ability to predict population-level density distribution for each sex in new habitats: by calculating the value of these probability density distributions at the known locations of natural seeps, we were able to identify those seeps with higher potential for sea otter encounters. The relative probability of occurrence at locations near to some seeps was sufficiently high (about 1% likelihood of occurrence for some of our study animals) that one would anticipate occasional encounters. Data on male and female survival, reproductive success, activity budgets, and body condition all indicated that sea otters in Santa Barbara Channel are not resource limited, and thus we would expect to see continued strong population growth in this area. However, the principal cause of death for study animals was lethal bites by white sharks, suggesting that shark bite mortality represents the single biggest threat to continued population growth in the Santa Barbara Channel.

California

Integrating encounter theory with decision analysis to evaluate collision risk and determine optimal protection zones for wildlife

1.Better understanding human‐wildlife interactions and their links with management can help improve the design of wildlife protection zones. One example is the problem of wildlife collisions with vehicles or human‐built structures (e.g. power lines, wind farms). In fact, collisions between marine wildlife and watercraft are among the major threats faced by several endangered species of marine mammals. Natural resource managers are therefore interested in finding cost‐effective solutions to mitigate these threats. 2.We combined abundance estimators with encounter rate theory to estimate relative lethal collision risk of the Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ) from watercraft. We first modeled seasonal abundance of watercraft and manatees using a Bayesian analysis of aerial survey count data. We then modeled relative lethal collision risk in space and across seasons. Finally, we applied decision analysis and Linear Integer Programming to determine the optimal design of speed zones in terms of relative risk to manatees and costs to waterway users. We used a Pareto efficient frontier approach to evaluate the performance of alternative zones, which included additional practical considerations (e.g. spatial aggregation of speed zones) in relation to the optimal zone configurations. 3.Under the various relationships for probability of death given strike speed that we considered, the current speed zones reduced the relative lethal collision risk by an average of 51.5% to 70% compared to the scenario in which all speed regulations were removed (i.e. the no‐protection scenario). We identified optimal zones and near‐optimal zones with additional management considerations that improved upon the current zones in terms of cost or relative risk. 4.Policy Implications : Our analytical framework combines encounter rate theory and decision analysis to quantify the effectiveness of speed zones protecting manatees while accounting for uncertainty. Our approach can be used to optimize the design of protection zones intended to reduce conflicts between human waterborne activity and marine mammals. This framework could be extended to address many other problems of human‐wildlife interactions, such as the optimal placement of wind farms to minimize collisions with wildlife or the optimal allocation of ranger effort to mitigate poaching threats.

Journal of Applied Ecology

Streamflow Simulations and Percolation Estimates Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for Selected Basins in North-Central Nebraska, 1940-2005

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Elkhorn, Lower Elkhorn, Upper Loup, Lower Loup, Middle Niobrara, Lower Niobrara, Lewis and Clark, and Lower Platte North Natural Resources Districts, used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate streamflow and estimate percolation in north-central Nebraska to aid development of long-term strategies for management of hydrologically connected ground and surface water. Although groundwater models adequately simulate subsurface hydrologic processes, they often are not designed to simulate the hydrologically complex processes occurring at or near the land surface. The use of watershed models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, which are designed specifically to simulate surface and near-subsurface processes, can provide helpful insight into the effects of surface-water hydrology on the groundwater system. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated for five stream basins in the Elkhorn-Loup Groundwater Model study area in north-central Nebraska to obtain spatially variable estimates of percolation. Six watershed models were calibrated to recorded streamflow in each subbasin by modifying the adjustment parameters. The calibrated parameter sets were then used to simulate a validation period; the validation period was half of the total streamflow period of record with a minimum requirement of 10 years. If the statistical and water-balance results for the validation period were similar to those for the calibration period, a model was considered satisfactory. Statistical measures of each watershed model's performance were variable. These objective measures included the Nash-Sutcliffe measure of efficiency, the ratio of the root-mean-square error to the standard deviation of the measured data, and an estimate of bias. The model met performance criteria for the bias statistic, but failed to meet statistical adequacy criteria for the other two performance measures when evaluated at a monthly time step. A primary cause of the poor model validation results was the inability of the model to reproduce the sustained base flow and streamflow response to precipitation that was observed in the Sand Hills region. The watershed models also were evaluated based on how well they conformed to the annual mass balance (precipitation equals the sum of evapotranspiration, streamflow/runoff, and deep percolation). The model was able to adequately simulate annual values of evapotranspiration, runoff, and precipitation in comparison to reported values, which indicates the model may provide reasonable estimates of annual percolation. Mean annual percolation estimated by the model as basin averages varied within the study area from a maximum of 12.9 inches in the Loup River Basin to a minimum of 1.5 inches in the Shell Creek Basin. Percolation also varied within the studied basins; basin headwaters tended to have greater percolation rates than downstream areas. This variance in percolation rates was mainly was because of the predominance of sandy, highly permeable soils in the upstream areas of the modeled basins.

Scientific Investigations Report

Description of landscape features, summary of existing hydrologic data, and identification of data gaps for the Osage Nation, northeastern Oklahoma, 1890-2012

The Osage Nation of northeastern Oklahoma, conterminous with Osage County, is characterized by gently rolling uplands and incised stream valleys that have downcut into underlying sedimentary rock units of Pennsylvanian through Permian age. Cattle ranching and petroleum and natural-gas extraction are the principal land uses in this rural area. Freshwater resources in the Osage Nation include water flowing in the Arkansas River and several smaller streams, water stored in several lakes, and groundwater contained in unconsolidated alluvial aquifers and bedrock aquifers. The Vamoosa-Ada aquifer is the primary source of fresh groundwater in this area. Fresh groundwater is underlain by saline groundwater in aquifers underlying the Osage Nation. Because of the potential for future population increases, demands for water from neighboring areas such as the Tulsa metropolitan area, and expansion of petroleum and natural-gas extraction on water resources of this area, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Osage Nation, summarized existing hydrologic data and identified data gaps to provide information for planning of future development of water resources in the Osage Nation. Streamflows in the Osage Nation are substantially affected by precipitation. During the relatively wet periods from the 1970s to 2000, the annual streamflows in the Osage Nation increased by as much as a factor of 2 relative to preceding decades, with subsequent decreases in streamflow of as much as 50 percent being recorded during intermittent drier years of the early 2000s. This report summarizes hydrologic data from 3 surface-water sites and 91 wells distributed across the Osage Nation. Data collected at those sites indicate that surface water in the Osage Nation generally has sufficient dissolved oxygen for survival of both coldwater and warmwater aquatic biota. Total dissolved solids concentration exceeded the secondary drinking-water standard of 500 milligrams per liter (mg/L) in up to 75 percent of the surface-water samples, indicating limited availability of potable water at some sites. Some surface-water samples collected in the Osage Nation contained dissolved chloride concentrations exceeding the secondary drinking-water standard of 250 mg/L, with greater chloride concentrations in selected basins appearing to be associated with greater densities of petroleum well locations. Several lakes sampled in the Osage Nation from 2011–12 contained sufficient chlorophyll-a concentrations to be ranked as mesotrophic to eutrophic, indicating impairment by nutrients. Relatively large dissolved phosphorus concentrations in many surface-water samples, compared to water-quality standards, indicate that eutrophication can occur in local streams and lakes. The amount of fresh groundwater stored in alluvial aquifers and the Vamoosa-Ada bedrock aquifer is adequate for domestic and other purposes in the Osage Nation at the current rate of usage. In areas where these aquifers are absent, groundwater must be pumped from minor bedrock aquifers that produce smaller volumes of water. About 30 and 60 percent of 32 and 54 water samples collected from the alluvial and Vamoosa-Ada aquifers, respectively, contained total dissolved solids concentrations larger than the secondary drinking-water standard of 500 mg/L. Local factors, such as natural seepage of brines or leakage from petroleum and natural-gas extraction activities, may cause substantial variations in dissolved chloride concentration in groundwater in the Osage Nation. Total phosphorus concentrations measured in groundwater samples were similar to dissolved phosphorus concentrations measured in the base flow of several streams. Total fresh surface-water withdrawals (use) and fresh groundwater withdrawals in the Osage Nation were estimated to have increased from 0.75 to 16.19 million gallons per day and from 0.13 to 2.39 million gallons per day, respectively, over the period from 1890 through 2010. Estimated saline-groundwater reinjection volumes at the heavily developed Burbank Oil Field in the Osage Nation from 1950 through 2012 were many times larger than the total amounts of freshwater withdrawn in this area, with estimated increases in saline-groundwater reinjection in the 2000s probably being related to increased petroleum extraction. Estimates of freshwater resources in local streams, lakes, and freshwater aquifers and of net annual precipitation indicate that less than 1 percent of freshwater resources and net annual precipitation currently is being withdrawn annually in the Osage Nation. In addition to freshwater resources, the Osage Nation may be underlain by 45,000,000 million gallons of brines, a small portion of which are withdrawn and reinjected during petroleum and natural-gas extraction. Ongoing development of desalinization technology may lead to the ability to expand use of these saline waters in the future. Several additional studies could improve understanding of the hydrologic resources of the Osage Nation. Development of computer models (simulations) of groundwater and surface-water flow for this area could enable testing of scenarios of localized and widespread effects of future climate variations and water-use changes on streamflows, lake-water levels, and groundwater levels in the Osage Nation. Installation of additional long-term streamflow and water-quality sampling stations, some with continuous water-quality monitors, could expand and improve understanding of surface-water quality. Periodic measurement of groundwater levels and sampling of water from a network of wells could provide better information about trends of groundwater quantity and quality with time. Measurement of water withdrawals at selected sites could enable more accurate estimates of water use. Lastly, better understanding of aquifer properties and spatial distribution of saline groundwater provided by geophysical surveys could improve understanding of fresh and saline groundwater resources underlying the Osage Nation.

Oklahoma

Puerto Rico’s state of the climate 2014-2021

The climate of Puerto Rico is influenced by the changing global climate. The following chapters present the current knowledge of the geophysical and chemical drivers and signals of global climate change as they affect the climate of Puerto Rico and influence the climate-dependent services, risks, and vulnerabilities that govern human well-being. These include sustainable economic development, delivery of ecosystem services, the conservation of natural and cultural resources, resiliency in built and natural systems, and food security. The chapters draw on global expertise of land, atmosphere, and ocean geophysical interactions associated with increasing greenhouse gases that drive global warming and on local scientific expertise, data, observations, and modeled projections. They present the global warming scenario (section 1), the contribution of Puerto Rico to global climate change as GHG emissions and aerosols (section 2), the context of natural climate variability (section 3), observed and projected trends in temperature (section 4), rainfall (section 5), sea level rise (section 6), ocean acidification and sea surface warming (section 7), and the expected implications of warming climate on tropical cyclones affecting Puerto Rico (section 8).

Puerto Rico

FORSPAN Model Users Guide

The USGS FORSPAN model is designed for the assessment of continuous accumulations of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (collectively called petroleum). Continuous (also called ?unconventional?) accumulations have large spatial dimensions and lack well defined down-dip petroleum/water contacts. Oil and natural gas therefore are not localized by buoyancy in water in these accumulations. Continuous accumulations include ?tight gas reservoirs,? coalbed gas, oil and gas in shale, oil and gas in chalk, and shallow biogenic gas. The FORSPAN model treats a continuous accumulation as a collection of petroleumcontaining cells for assessment purposes. Each cell is capable of producing oil or gas, but the cells may vary significantly from one another in their production (and thus economic) characteristics. The potential additions to reserves from continuous petroleum resources are calculated by statistically combining probability distributions of the estimated number of untested cells having the potential for additions to reserves with the estimated volume of oil and natural gas that each of the untested cells may potentially produce (total recovery). One such statistical method for combination of number of cells with total recovery, used by the USGS, is called ACCESS.

Open-File Report

Three-dimensional geologic model of the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer, south-central Oklahoma

The Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer of south-central Oklahoma encompasses more than 850 square kilometers and is the principal water resource for south-central Oklahoma. Rock units comprising the aquifer are characterized by limestone, dolomite, and sandstones assigned to two lower Paleozoic units: the Arbuckle and Simpson Groups. Also considered to be part of the aquifer is the underlying Cambrian-age Timbered Hills Group that contains limestone and sandstone. The highly faulted and fractured nature of the Arbuckle-Simpson units and the variable thickness (600 to 2,750 meters) increases the complexity in determining the subsurface geologic framework of this aquifer. A three-dimensional EarthVision (Trademark) geologic framework model was constructed to quantify the geometric relationships of the rock units of the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer in the Hunton anticline area. This 3-D EarthVision (Trademark) geologic framework model incorporates 54 faults and four modeled units: basement, Arbuckle-Timbered Hills Group, Simpson Group, and post-Simpson. Primary data used to define the model's 54 faults and four modeled surfaces were obtained from geophysical logs, cores, and cuttings from 126 water and petroleum wells. The 3-D framework model both depicts the volumetric extent of the aquifer and provides the stratigraphic layer thickness and elevation data used to construct a MODFLOW version 2000 regional groundwater-flow model.

Open-File Report

Post-wildfire curve number estimates for the southern Rocky Mountains in Colorado, USA

The curve number method first developed by the US Department of Agriculture Soil Conservation Service (now the Natural Resources Conservation Service) is often used for post-wildfire runoff assessments. These assessments are critical for land and emergency managers making decisions on life and property risks following a wildfire event. Three approaches (i.e., historical event observations, linear regression model, and regression tree model) were used to help estimate a post-wildfire curve number from watershed and wildfire parameters. For the first method, we used runoff events from 102 burned watersheds in Colorado, southern Wyoming, northern New Mexico, and eastern Utah to quantify changes in curve number values from pre- to post-wildfire conditions. The curve number changes from the measured runoff events vary substantially between positive and negative values. The measured curve number changes were then associated with watershed characteristics (e.g., slope, elevation, northness, and eastness) and land cover type to develop prediction models that provide estimates of post-wildfire curve number changes. Finally, we used a regression tree method to demonstrate that accurate predications can be developed using the measured curve number changes from our study domain. These models can be used for future post-wildfire assessments within the region.

Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming

National Digital Orthophoto Program

A critical component of the National Spatial Data Infrastructure (NSDI) is Framework. Framework provides a base on which to collect, register, and integrate geospatial information accurately and consistently. The Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC) proposed that Framework include geodetic control, orthoimagery, elevation, transportation, hydrography, governmental units, and cadastral data. The Mapping Science Committee of the National Research Council recommends that geodetic control, orthoimagery, and elevation data become the critical foundation of the NSDI. The National Digital Orthophoto Program (NDOP) is a working model on how Federal, State, and local government, as well as private industry, can participate to develop the orthoimagery Framework for the Nation.

Report