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At least 541 records · Page 30Linked to original sources
USGS2011

Deepwater demersal fish community collapse in Lake Huron

Long-term fish community surveys were carried out in the Michigan waters of Lake Huron using bottom trawls from 1976 to 2006. Trends in abundance indices for common species (those caught in 10% or more of trawl tows) were estimated for two periods: early (1976-1991) and late (1994-2006). All common species significantly decreased in abundance during the late period with the exception of the johnny darter Etheostoma nigrum and spottail shiner Notropis hudsonius, which showed no significant trends, and the round goby Neogobius melanostomus, which increased in abundance. Percentage decreases in abundance indices between 1994-1995 and 2005-2006 ranged from 66.4% to 99.9%, and seven species decreased in abundance by more than 90%. The mean biomass of all common species in 2006 was the lowest observed in the time series and was less than 5% of that observed in the mid-1990s. The mean number of common species captured per trawl has also decreased since the mid-1990s. Several factors, including recent invasion of the lake by multiple exotic species, may have contributed to these declines, but insufficient published data are currently available to determine which factors are most important. Our observations suggest that significant changes have occurred in the ecology of Lake Huron since the mid-1990s. The extent of these changes indicates that the deepwater demersal fish community in Lake Huron is undergoing collapse.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗
USGS2022

Monitoring framework to evaluate effectiveness of aquatic and floodplain habitat restoration activities for native fish along the Willamette River, northwestern Oregon

Since 2008, large-scale restoration programs have been implemented along the Willamette River, Oregon, to address historical losses of floodplain habitats caused by dam construction, bank protection, large wood removal, land conversion, and other anthropogenic influences. The Willamette Focused Investment Partnership (WFIP) restoration initiative brings together more than 16 organizations to improve floodplain habitats on more than 35,000 hectares upstream from Willamette Falls with the overarching goal to expand and enhance native fish habitats through the following restoration activities implemented along the floodplains and off-channel areas of the Willamette River: (A) modify floodplain topography and human-made barriers to inundation; (B) enhance gravel pits; (C) remove revetments; (D) construct off-channel features; (E) increase and enhance floodplain forest vegetation; and (F) treat aquatic invasive plant species (AIS). The WFIP Effectiveness Monitoring Program was initiated to inform future refinement of Willamette River restoration program goals and activities and has three goals: (1) evaluate the effectiveness of different restoration activities at increasing and enhancing native fish habitat, (2) improve overall understanding of the physical and ecological responses associated with different restoration activities undertaken by the WFIP, and (3) relate site-scale responses to restoration with broader patterns of fish communities, hydrogeomorphology, stream temperature, and vegetation across the Willamette River floodplain, so that the relative importance of restoration activities on habitat availability for native fish can be assessed. A monitoring framework was developed to evaluate effectiveness of floodplain restoration activities at increasing and enhancing habitat for native fish in the Willamette River corridor, northwestern Oregon. This framework describes monitoring indicators, metrics, and approaches for evaluating responses in native fish communities and physical habitat conditions to restoration activities and determining effectiveness of restoration activities at improving habitats for native fish. The monitoring indicators and approaches are grouped into five restoration monitoring categories that are useful for characterizing ecological and physical habitat responses to restoration activities: fish, hydrogeomorphology, floodplain forest vegetation, birds, and AIS. This monitoring framework provides a common science foundation to support collaborative decisions on future interdisciplinary effectiveness monitoring activities for Willamette River restoration programs. To evaluate restoration effectiveness, data must be evaluated according to metrics and thresholds that permit direct comparison between habitat conditions at the restoration site and restoration program goals; this framework provides examples of metrics and thresholds for evaluating data, recognizing that the precise evaluation criteria for a particular site or program will need to be tailored to meet program questions and available resources. Refining restoration goals and activities as part of an adaptively managed process requires addressing critical uncertainties between restoration goals, restoration activities, and outcomes for habitats used by native fish. Although the monitoring activities of this framework will generate important datasets useful for evaluating restoration effectiveness, additional research, syntheses, and reporting is ultimately necessary to provide a common science foundation to support adaptively managed restoration programs. This report is intended as a resource for restoration program managers, practitioners, scientists, and contractors as they develop detailed annual monitoring plans for data collection and identify the monitoring indicators, metrics, and approaches that are appropriate for evaluating effectiveness of different restoration activities.

Oregon↗
USGS2016

Conifer density within lake catchments predicts fish mercury concentrations in remote subalpine lakes

Remote high-elevation lakes represent unique environments for evaluating the bioaccumulation of atmospherically deposited mercury through freshwater food webs, as well as for evaluating the relative importance of mercury loading versus landscape influences on mercury bioaccumulation. The increase in mercury deposition to these systems over the past century, coupled with their limited exposure to direct anthropogenic disturbance make them useful indicators for estimating how changes in mercury emissions may propagate to changes in Hg bioaccumulation and ecological risk. We evaluated mercury concentrations in resident fish from 28 high-elevation, sub-alpine lakes in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. Fish total mercury (THg) concentrations ranged from 4 to 438 ng/g wet weight, with a geometric mean concentration (±standard error) of 43 ± 2 ng/g ww. Fish THg concentrations were negatively correlated with relative condition factor, indicating that faster growing fish that are in better condition have lower THg concentrations. Across the 28 study lakes, mean THg concentrations of resident salmonid fishes varied as much as 18-fold among lakes. We used a hierarchal statistical approach to evaluate the relative importance of physiological, limnological, and catchment drivers of fish Hg concentrations. Our top statistical model explained 87% of the variability in fish THg concentrations among lakes with four key landscape and limnological variables: catchment conifer density (basal area of conifers within a lake's catchment), lake surface area, aqueous dissolved sulfate, and dissolved organic carbon. Conifer density within a lake's catchment was the most important variable explaining fish THg concentrations across lakes, with THg concentrations differing by more than 400 percent across the forest density spectrum. These results illustrate the importance of landscape characteristics in controlling mercury bioaccumulation in fish.

Environmental Pollution↗
USGS2013

Unsupported inferences of high-severity fire in historical dry forests of the western United States: Response to Williams and Baker

Reconstructions of dry western US forests in the late 19th century in Arizona, Colorado and Oregon based on General Land Office records were used by Williams & Baker (2012; Global Ecology and Biogeography, 21, 1042–1052; hereafter W&B) to infer past fire regimes with substantial moderate and high-severity burning. The authors concluded that present-day large, high-severity fires are not distinguishable from historical patterns. We present evidence of important errors in their study. First, the use of tree size distributions to reconstruct past fire severity and extent is not supported by empirical age–size relationships nor by studies that directly quantified disturbance history in these forests. Second, the fire severity classification of W&B is qualitatively different from most modern classification schemes, and is based on different types of data, leading to an inappropriate comparison. Third, we note that while W&B asserted ‘surprising’ heterogeneity in their reconstructions of stand density and species composition, their data are not substantially different from many previous studies which reached very different conclusions about subsequent forest and fire behaviour changes. Contrary to the conclusions of W&B, the preponderance of scientific evidence indicates that conservation of dry forest ecosystems in the western United States and their ecological, social and economic value is not consistent with a present-day disturbance regime of large, high-severity fires, especially under changing climate

Arizona, Colorado, Oregon↗
USGS2023

Effects of solar energy development on ants in the Mojave Desert

Land-use change from solar energy development may affect desert ecosystems and the soils, plants, and animals therein, yet our understanding of these interactions is nascent. With their ubiquity, criticality as ecosystem constituents, and sensitivity to environmental variation, ants may be useful study organisms for elucidating ecological effects of solar energy development in deserts. Our objectives were to disentangle the response of a desert ant community to solar energy development decisions and test the efficacy of ants as bioindicators at a solar power facility (392 MW) in the Mojave Desert, USA. We used pitfall traps to collect ants in treatments representing different solar energy development decisions, including variably intense site preparation practices: blading (i.e., bulldozing) and mowing, and establishment of undeveloped patches in solar fields, replicated across three power blocks comprising the facility and in undeveloped control sites surrounding the facility. We determined that ant abundance, species richness, Shannon Diversity Index, and functional richness were lower in bladed treatments than in all other treatments and controls. For most taxonomic and functional ant responses, we detected no difference between nonbladed treatments and controls; these results suggest that less intensive site preparation and increased spatial heterogeneity (i.e., undeveloped patches in solar fields) can reduce the negative effects of solar energy development on desert ants. However, our results indicate that ants may serve as useful bioindicators of the severity of anthropogenic disturbance from solar energy development in deserts, and indicator analysis signifies that solar energy infrastructure may negatively affect some species with high ecological value (e.g., harvester ants). Negative effects of solar energy development on ants can have significant implications for desert ecosystem function and integrity, but conservation-minded solar facility design and construction may lead to avoidance of “bottom-up” ecological ramifications of increased solar production during the renewable energy transition.

California↗
USGS2022

Evidence of a dietary shift by the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) in the Indian River Lagoon inferred from stomach content analyses

Investigating the long-term fluctuations of the feeding ecology of megaherbivores such as sirenians is important, as any changes could be indicative of shifts in resource availability. The Indian River Lagoon (IRL), eastern Florida, USA, is a critical habitat for the Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ). However, the IRL has experienced a substantial decline in seagrass due to the persistence of several harmful algal blooms. Using microhistological analysis, we examined the diet of manatees over a discontinuous sampling period spanning over 38 years using stomach contents collected from carcasses recovered in the IRL. Samples collected between 2013–2015 (post-seagrass die-off, n = 90) were compared to archived stomach samples collected between 1977–1989 (pre-seagrass die-off, n = 103). Samples analyzed from 1977–1989 contained primarily seagrasses (61.7%), followed by algae (28.4%) and vascular plants (1.7%). In contrast, stomach samples from the post-seagrass die-off primarily contained algae (49.5%), followed by seagrasses (34%) and vascular plants (2.7%). Between 1977–1989 and 2013–2015, manatees in the IRL experienced a 44.9% decline in seagrass consumption, and a 74.3% increase in algal consumption. This dietary shift was not influenced by body length, a proxy of age, or sex. Our results indicate that the dietary shift experienced by manatees is due to the decline of available seagrass forage in the IRL, and highlight the dietary plasticity of manatees in the face of changes in resource availability. However, the individual health and population-level consequences of this dietary shift are unknown. An increase in mortality due to undetermined causes in this region since 2012 can be associated with deteriorating body conditions of manatees in the IRL, possibly resulting from a lack of seagrass diet. Future research should further investigate behavioral changes affecting manatees in relation to seagrass decline in the IRL, including the energetic costs of this dietary change.

Florida↗
USGS2026

Detection of Naegleria fowleri in thermally impacted recreational waters of western United States national parks

Naegleria fowleri is a thermophilic free-living amoeba (FLA) and the causative agent of primary amoebic meningoencephalitis, posing public health risks in warm freshwater environments. This multiyear, multiagency study surveyed 40 thermally impacted recreational waters across five western United States national parks and recreation areas–Yellowstone National Park, Grand Teton National Park, Olympic National Park, Newberry National Volcanic Monument, and Lake Mead National Recreation Area–to assess N. fowleri presence, concentration, and associated environmental conditions. A total of 185 water samples were analyzed by qPCR and Sanger sequencing, revealing widespread detection of N. fowleri in 34% of samples with positive detections from Lake Mead, Yellowstone, and Grand Teton hot springs and thermally impacted waters, with concentrations ranging from 4.9 to 115.7 cells/L. Multiple codetections of N. fowleri with nonpathogenic species including Naegleria australiensis were identified, suggesting they may inhabit similar ecological niches in the natural systems in contrast to engineered systems. These findings indicate that N. fowleri is present in thermally impacted areas across the western United States and underscore the use of enhanced monitoring, public awareness, and risk management strategies in thermally influenced recreational waters.

Arizona, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, Wyoming↗
USGS2009

Science-Based Strategies for Sustaining Coral Ecosystems

Coral ecosystems and their natural capital are at risk. Greenhouse gas emissions, overfishing, and harmful land-use practices are damaging our coral reefs. Overwhelming scientific evidence indicates that the threats are serious, and if they are left unchecked, the ecological and social consequences will be significant and widespread. Although the primary stressors to coral ecosystems are known, science-based strategies are needed to more accurately explain natural processes and forecast human-induced change. Collaborations among managers and scientists and enhanced mapping, monitoring, research, and modeling can lead to effective mitigation plans. U.S. Geological Survey scientists and their partners assess coral ecosystem history, ecology, vulnerability, and resiliency and provide study results to decisionmakers who may devise policies to sustain coral resources and the essential goods and services they provide.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2011

Assessment of potential effects of water produced from coalbed natural gas development on macroinvertebrate and algal communities in the Powder River and Tongue River, Wyoming and Montana, 2010

Ongoing development of coalbed natural gas in the Powder River structural basin in Wyoming and Montana led to formation of an interagency aquatic task group to address concerns about the effects of the resulting production water on biological communities in streams of the area. Ecological assessments, made from 2005–08 under the direction of the task group, indicated biological condition of the macroinvertebrate and algal communities in the middle reaches of the Powder was lower than in the upper or lower reaches. On the basis of the 2005–08 results, sampling of the macroinvertebrate and algae communities was conducted at 18 sites on the mainstem Powder River and 6 sites on the mainstem Tongue River in 2010. Sampling-site locations were selected on a paired approach, with sites located upstream and downstream of discharge points and tributaries associated with coalbed natural gas development. Differences in biological condition among site pairs were evaluated graphically and statistically using multiple lines of evidence that included macroinvertebrate and algal community metrics (such as taxa richness, relative abundance, functional feeding groups, and tolerance) and output from observed/expected (O/E) macroinvertebrate models from Wyoming and Montana. Multiple lines of evidence indicated a decline in biological condition in the middle reaches of the Powder River, potentially indicating cumulative effects from coalbed natural gas discharges within one or more reaches between Flying E Creek and Wild Horse Creek in Wyoming. The maximum concentrations of alkalinity in the Powder River also occurred in the middle reaches. Biological condition in the upper and lower reaches of the Powder River was variable, with declines between some site pairs, such as upstream and downstream of Dry Fork and Willow Creek, and increases at others, such as upstream and downstream of Beaver Creek. Biological condition at site pairs on the Tongue River showed an increase in one case, near the Wyoming-Montana border, and a decrease in another case, upstream of Tongue River Reservoir. Few significant differences were noted from upstream to downstream of Prairie Dog Creek, a major tributary to the Tongue River. Further study would be needed to confirm the observed patterns and choose areas to examine in greater detail.

Wyoming;Montana↗
USGS2019

Let’s agree to disagree: Comparing auto-acoustic identification programs for northeastern bats

With the declines in abundance and changing distribution of white-nose syndrome–affected bat species, increased reliance on acoustic monitoring is now the new “normal.” As such, the ability to accurately identify individual bat species with acoustic identification programs has become increasingly important. We assessed rates of disagreement between the three U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service–approved acoustic identification software programs (Kaleidoscope Pro 4.2.0, Echoclass 3.1, and Bat Call Identification 2.7d) and manual visual identification using acoustic data collected during summers from 2003 to 2017 at Fort Drum, New York. We assessed the percentage of agreement between programs through pairwise comparisons on a total nightly count level, individual file level (e.g., individual echolocation pass call file), and grouped maximum likelihood estimate level (e.g., probability values that a species is misclassified as present when in fact it is absent) using preplanned contrasts, Akaike Information Criterion, and annual confusion matrices. Interprogram agreement on an individual file level was low, as measured by Cohen's Kappa (0.2–0.6). However, site-night level pairwise comparative analysis indicated that program agreement was higher (40–90%) using single season occupancy metrics. In comparing analytical outcomes of our different datasets (i.e., how comparable programs and visual identification are regarding the relationship between environmental conditions and bat activity), we determined high levels of congruency in the relative rankings of the model as well as the relative level of support for each individual model. This indicated that among individual software packages, when analyzing bat calls, there was consistent ecological inference beyond the file-by-file level at the scales used by managers. Depending on objectives, we believe our results can help users choose automated software and maximum likelihood estimate thresholds more appropriate for their needs and allow for better cross-comparison of studies using different automated acoustic software.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗
USGS2019

Phenology patterns indicate recovery trajectories of ponderosa pine forests after high-severity fires

Post-fire recovery trajectories in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Laws.) forests of the US Southwest are increasingly shifting away from pre-burn vegetation communities. This study investigated whether phenological metrics derived from a multi-decade remotely sensed imagery time-series could differentiate among grass, evergreen shrub, deciduous, or conifer-dominated replacement pathways. We focused on 10 fires that burned ponderosa pine forests in Arizona and New Mexico, USA before the year 2000. A total of 29 sites with discernable post-fire recovery signals were selected within high-severity burn areas. At each site, we used Google Earth Engine to derive time-series of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) signals from Landsat Thematic Mapper, Enhanced Thematic Mapper+, and Operational Line Imager data from 1984 to 2017. We aggregated values to 8- and 16-day intervals, fit Savitzy-Golay filters to each sequence, and extracted annual phenology metrics of amplitude, base value, peak value, and timing of peak value in the Timesat analysis package. Results show that relative to post-fire conditions, pre-burn ponderosa pine forests exhibit significantly lower mean NDVI amplitude (0.14 vs. 0.21), higher mean base NDVI (0.47 vs. 0.22), higher mean peak NDVI (0.60 vs. 0.43), and later mean peak NDVI (day of year 277 vs. 237). Vegetation succession exhibits distinct phenometric characteristics as early as year five (amplitude) and as late as year 20 (timing of peak NDVI). This study confirms the feasibility of leveraging phenology metrics derived from long-term imagery time series to identify and monitor ecological outcomes. This information may be of benefit to land resource managers who seek indicators of future landscape composition to inform management strategies.

Arizona, New Mexico↗
USGS2005

Are all prey created equal? A review and synthesis of differential predation on prey in substandard condition

Our understanding of predator-prey interactions in fishes has been influenced largely by research assuming that the condition of the participants is normal. However, fish populations today often reside in anthropogenically altered environments and are subjected to many kinds of stressors, which may reduce their ecological performance by adversely affecting their morphology, physiology, or behaviour. One consequence is that either the predator or prey, or both, may be in a substandard condition at the time of an interaction. We reviewed the literature on predator-prey interactions in fishes where substandard prey were used as experimental groups. Although most of this research indicates that such prey are significantly more vulnerable to predation, prey condition has rarely been considered in ecological theory regarding predator-prey interactions. The causal mechanisms for increased vulnerability of substandard prey to predation include a failure to detect predators, lapses in decision-making, poor fast-start performance, inability to shoal effectively, and increased prey conspicuousness. Despite some problems associated with empirical predator-prey studies using substandard prey, their results can have theoretical and applied uses, such as in ecological modelling or justification of corrective measures to be implemented in the wild. There is a need for more corroborative field experimentation, a better understanding of the causal mechanisms behind differential predation, and increased incorporation of prey condition into the research of predator-prey modellers and theoreticians. If the concept of prey condition is considered in predator-prey interactions, our understanding of how such interactions influence the structure and dynamics of fish communities is likely to change, which should prove beneficial to aquatic ecosystems.

Journal of Fish Biology↗
USGS2017

Divergent migration within lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) populations: Multiple distinct patterns exist across an unrestricted migration corridor

Population structure, distribution, abundance, and dispersal arguably underpin the entire field of animal ecology, with consequences for regional species persistence, and provision of ecosystem services. Divergent migration behaviours among individuals or among populations is an important aspect of the ecology of highly-mobile animals, allowing populations to exploit spatially- or temporally-distributed food and space resources. This study investigated the spatial ecology of lake sturgeon ( Acipenser fulvescens ) within the barrier free Huron-Erie Corridor (HEC), which connects Lake Huron and Lake Erie of the North American Laurentian Great Lakes. Over six years (2011 – 2016), movements of 268 lake sturgeon in the HEC were continuously monitored across the Great Lakes using acoustic telemetry (10 yr battery life acoustic transmitters). Five distinct migration behaviours were identified with hierarchical cluster analysis, based on the phenology and duration of river and lake use. Lake sturgeon in the HEC were found to contain a high level of intraspecific divergent migration, including partial migration with the existence of residents. Specific behaviours included year-round river residency and multiple lake-migrant behaviours that involved movements between lakes and rivers. Over 85% of individuals were assign to migration behaviours as movements were consistently repeated over the study, which suggested migration behaviours were consistent and persistent in lake sturgeon. Differential use of specific rivers or lakes by acoustic-tagged lake sturgeon further subdivided individuals into 14 “contingents” (spatiotemporally segregated subgroups). Contingents associated with one river (Detroit or St. Clair) were rarely detected in the other river, which confirmed that lake sturgeon in the Detroit and St. Clair represent two semi-independent populations that could require separate management consideration for their conservation. The distribution of migration behaviours did not vary between populations, sexes, body size, or among release locations, which indicated that intrapopulation variability in migratory behaviour is a general feature of the spatial ecology of lake sturgeon in un-fragmented landscapes.

Michigan, Ontario↗
USGS2016

A method for characterizing late-season low-flow regime in the upper Grand Ronde River Basin, Oregon

This report describes a method for estimating ecologically relevant low-flow metrics that quantify late‑season streamflow regime for ungaged sites in the upper Grande Ronde River Basin, Oregon. The analysis presented here focuses on sites sampled by the Columbia River Inter‑Tribal Fish Commission as part of their efforts to monitor habitat restoration to benefit spring Chinook salmon recovery in the basin. Streamflow data were provided by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Oregon Water Resources Department. Specific guidance was provided for selection of streamgages, development of probabilistic frequency distributions for annual 7-day low-flow events, and regionalization of the frequency curves based on multivariate analysis of watershed characteristics. Evaluation of the uncertainty associated with the various components of this protocol indicates that the results are reliable for the intended purpose of hydrologic classification to support ecological analysis of factors contributing to juvenile salmon success. They should not be considered suitable for more standard water-resource evaluations that require greater precision, especially those focused on management and forecasting of extreme low-flow conditions.

Oregon↗
USGS2000

Restoring ecological integrity of great rivers: Historical hydrographs aid in defining reference conditions for the Missouri River

Restoring the ecological integrity of regulated large rivers necessitates characterizing the natural flow regime. We applied 'Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration' to assess the natural range of variation of the Missouri River's flow regime at 11 locations before (1929-1948) and after (1967-1996) mainstem impoundment. The 3768 km long Missouri River was divided into three sections: upper basin least-altered from flow regulation, including the lower Yellowstone River; middle basin inter-reservoir, and lower basin channelized. Flow regulation was associated with a reduction in magnitude and duration of the annual flood pulse, an increase in magnitude and duration of annual discharge minima, a reduction in frequency of annual low-flow pulses, earlier timing of March-October low-flow pulses, and a general increase in frequency of flow reversals with a reduction in the rate of change in river flows. Hydrologic alterations were smallest at two least-altered upper-basin sites and most frequent and severe in inter-reservoir and upper-channelized river sections. The influence of reservoir operations on depressing the annual flood pulse was partially offset by tributary inflow in the lower 600 km of river. Reservoir operations could be modified to more closely approximate the 1929-1948 flow regime to establish a simulated natural riverine ecosystem. For inter-reservoir and upper channelized-river sections, we recommend periodic controlled flooding through managed reservoir releases during June and July; increased magnitude, frequency and duration of annual high-flow pulses; and increased annual rates of hydrograph rises and falls. All of the regulated Missouri River would benefit from reduced reservoir discharges during August-February, modified timing of reservoir releases and a reduced number of annual hydrograph reversals. Assessment of ecological responses to a reregulation of Missouri River flows that more closely approximates the natural flow regime should then be used in an adaptive fashion to further adjust reservoir operations.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2020

Climate dipoles as continental drivers of plant and animal populations

Ecological processes, such as migration and phenology, are strongly influenced by climate variability. Studying these processes often relies on associating observations of animals and plants with climate variability indices, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. A characteristic of climate indices is the simultaneous emergence of opposite extremes of temperature and precipitation across continental scales, known as climate dipoles. The role of climate dipoles in shaping ecological and evolutionary processes has been largely overlooked. We review emerging evidence that climate dipoles can entrain species dynamics, and offer a framework for identifying ecological dipoles using broad-scale biological data. Given future changes in climatic and atmospheric processes, climate and ecological dipoles will likely shift in their intensity, distribution, and timing.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2010

Stage structure alters how complexity affects stability of ecological networks

Resolving how complexity affects stability of natural communities is of key importance for predicting the consequences of biodiversity loss. Central to previous stability analysis has been the assumption that the resources of a consumer are substitutable. However, during their development, most species change diets; for instance, adults often use different resources than larvae or juveniles. Here, we show that such ontogenetic niche shifts are common in real ecological networks and that consideration of these shifts can alter which species are predicted to be at risk of extinction. Furthermore, niche shifts reduce and can even reverse the otherwise stabilizing effect of complexity. This pattern arises because species with several specialized life stages appear to be generalists at the species level but act as sequential specialists that are hypersensitive to resource loss. These results suggest that natural communities are more vulnerable to biodiversity loss than indicated by previous analyses.

Ecology Letters↗