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At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2013

Climate change's impact on key ecosystem services and the human well-being they support in the US

Climate change alters the functions of ecological systems. As a result, the provision of ecosystem services and the well-being of people that rely on these services are being modified. Climate models portend continued warming and more frequent extreme weather events across the US. Such weather-related disturbances will place a premium on the ecosystem services that people rely on. We discuss some of the observed and anticipated impacts of climate change on ecosystem service provision and livelihoods in the US. We also highlight promising adaptive measures. The challenge will be choosing which adaptive strategies to implement, given limited resources and time. We suggest using dynamic balance sheets or accounts of natural capital and natural assets to prioritize and evaluate national and regional adaptation strategies that involve ecosystem services.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2003

Influence of climate on deep-water clastic sedimentation: application of a modern model, Peru-Chile Trough, to an ancient system, Ouachita Trough

Traditionally, an abrupt and massive influx of siliciclastic sediments into an area of deposition has been attributed to tectonic uplift without consideration of the influence of climate or climatic change on rates of weathering, erosion, transportation, and deposition. With few exceptions, fluvial sediment transport is minimal in both extremely arid climates and in perhumid (everwet) climates. Maximum sediment transport occurs in climates characterized by strongly seasonal rainfall, where the effect of vegetation on erosion is minimal. The Peru–Chile trench and Andes Mountain system (P–CT/AMS) of the eastern Pacific Ocean clearly illustrates the effects of climate on rates of weathering, erosion, transport, and deep-sea sedimentation. Terrigenous sediment is virtually absent in the arid belt north of lat. 30° S in the P–CT, but in the belt of seasonal rainfall south of lat. 30° S terrigenous sediment is abundant. Spatial variations in the amount and seasonality of annual precipitation are now generally accepted as the cause for this difference. The spatial variation in sediment supply to the P–CT appears to be an excellent modern analogue for the temporal variation in sediment supply to certain ancient systems, such as the Ouachita Trough in the southern United States. By comparison, during the Ordovician through the early Mississippian, sediment was deposited at very slow rates as the Ouachita Trough moved northward through the southern hemisphere dry belt (lat. 10° S to lat. 30° S). The deposystem approached the tropical humid zone during the Mississippian, coincident with increased coarse clastic sedimentation. By the Middle Pennsylvanian (Atokan), the provenance area and the deposystem moved well into the tropical humid zone, and as much as 8,500 m of mineralogically mature (but texturally immature) quartz sand was introduced and deposited. This increase in clastic sediment deposition traditionally has been attributed solely to tectonic activity. However, we contend that the principal control on the introduction of abundant terrigenous sediment was the movement of the deposystem from an arid or semiarid climate into a seasonally wetter climatic regime. The physical and mineralogical maturity of the quartz sand is the result of tropical weathering in provenance areas.

Climate Controls on Stratigraphy: SEPM Special Pub↗
USGS2022

Importance of local weather and environmental gradients on demography of a broadly distributed temperate frog

Amphibian populations are sensitive to environmental temperatures and moisture, which vary with local weather conditions and may reach new norms and extremes as contemporary climate change progresses. Using long-term (11–16 years) mark-recapture data from 10 populations of the Columbia spotted frog ( Rana luteiventris ) from across its U.S. range, we addressed hypotheses about how demographic relationships to weather depend upon a population’s position along climate gradients. We estimated the effect of seasonal weather on annual survival probability and recruitment rates both within populations and across the species’ range from subalpine forests to semi-arid deserts. We calculated population-specific weather variables that captured seasonal temperature and precipitation between summer sampling events, both for periods when frogs were active (spring to fall) and inactive (winter). Across all populations, we marked 15,885 adult frogs, with 33% of frogs recaptured at least once. Population demography varied with seasonal weather across the species’ range. Annual adult survival probability and recruitment rates of each population were influenced by a unique set of seasonal temperature and precipitation variables, particularly in winter and spring. Hence, adult survival varied with local conditions but, when analyzed across all populations, was predictable along a species-environment response curve associated with the timing of snowmelt and spring moisture. In contrast, recruitment rates for each population peaked at different values along an environmental gradient associated with the amount of snow during winter, and fall temperature and moisture levels, suggesting that recruitment may be responding to local conditions independently within each population. These findings highlight that sampling across the environmental (i.e., elevational and meteorological) gradients within a species range is necessary to predict species-level responses to regional climate change. This study also provides evidence of the importance of winter conditions on the demography of temperate amphibians, conditions that are already responding to climate change. Finally, this study further emphasizes that local context and spatiotemporal scale of inquiry remain paramount to understanding and potentially managing for climate effects on populations of amphibian species with broad geographic ranges.

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon↗
USGS2022

Restoring aquatic habitats through dam removal

This report presents results from a four-year project (2018–2022) to document the effects of small, run-of-river dams and dam removal on water quality (stream temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO)), aquatic macroinvertebrates, and fishes. Temperature and DO are critical water quality parameters that shape biogeochemical processes and biotic assemblages in streams. Macroinvertebrate and fish assemblages can be reflective of habitat and water quality due to their diversity and sensitivity to high temperatures and low DO and are often used as indicators of ecosystem health (e.g., Clean Water Act Section 401). This study aimed to better explain the responses of these important ecological parameters to small dam removals, which may support a more comprehensive understanding of the benefits of restoration to aquatic ecosystems. We collected pre- and post-restoration water quality data and macroinvertebrate samples at 16 small dams in Massachusetts that have been removed (10 sites) or are currently being considered for removal (6 sites). General results from these monitoring efforts indicate that: ● 15 of 16 small dams increased impoundment water temperatures and warming persisted downstream at 11 of those sites, relative to upstream. Dam removal reduced summer impoundment warming at 7 of 10 removal sites and reduced downstream warming at 5 of 10 sites. These in-stream temperature improvements occurred within 5 years after dam removal. ● 13 of 16 small dams negatively impacted dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations within the impoundments, but the magnitude of impact varied across sites. Negative impoundment DO impacts did not consistently translate downstream, and downstream responses to dam removal were generally minimal and variable across sites. Dam removal significantly reduced negative impoundment DO impacts within 1 year after removal at 7 of 10 sites, and sites with greater pre-removal impacts experienced the greatest magnitude of DO recovery after dam removal. ● Interannual variability in dam impacts on water quality across sites suggests periods of extreme weather (i.e., droughts or high precipitation) due to climate change may exacerbate adverse impacts from run-of-river dams. ● Macroinvertebrate assemblages within dam impoundments differed from assemblages in adjacent un-impounded stream sections and exhibited a loss of sensitive organisms (an average of 17% fewer). Dam removal led to more similar macroinvertebrate assemblages throughout most stream sections, and recovery of sensitive taxa occurred relatively quickly (1-3 years). ● Fish species richness increased upstream at 2 of 10 removal sites, suggesting potential increases in fish passage from downstream reaches. However, particular species, such as American Eel ( Anguilla rostrata ), exhibited both positive and negative responses to dam removal across study sites. Incorporating more sites with pre-and post-dam removal fish data could allow for better understanding factors explaining site-specific differences.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2020

Storm impacts on phytoplankton community dynamics in lakes

In many regions across the globe, extreme weather events such as storms have increased in frequency, intensity, and duration due to climate change. Ecological theory predicts that such extreme events should have large impacts on ecosystem structure and function. High winds and precipitation associated with storms can affect lakes via short‐term runoff events from watersheds and physical mixing of the water column. In addition, lakes connected to rivers and streams will also experience flushing due to high flow rates. Although we have a well‐developed understanding of how wind and precipitation events can alter lake physical processes and some aspects of biogeochemical cycling, our mechanistic understanding of the emergent responses of phytoplankton communities is poor. Here we provide a comprehensive synthesis that identifies how storms interact with lake and watershed attributes and their antecedent conditions to generate changes in lake physical and chemical environments. Such changes can restructure phytoplankton communities and their dynamics, as well as result in altered ecological function (e.g., carbon, nutrient and energy cycling) in the short‐ and long‐term. We summarize the current understanding of storm‐induced phytoplankton dynamics, identify knowledge gaps with a systematic review of the literature, and suggest future research directions across a gradient of lake types and environmental conditions.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2012

Ecological effects of climate change on salt marsh wildlife: a case study from a highly urbanized estuary

Coastal areas are high-risk zones subject to the impacts of global climate change, with significant increases in the frequencies of extreme weather and storm events, and sea-level rise forecast by 2100. These physical processes are expected to alter estuaries, resulting in loss of intertidal wetlands and their component wildlife species. In particular, impacts to salt marshes and their wildlife will vary both temporally and spatially and may be irreversible and severe. Synergistic effects caused by combining stressors with anthropogenic land-use patterns could create areas of significant biodiversity loss and extinction, especially in urbanized estuaries that are already heavily degraded. In this paper, we discuss current ideas, challenges, and concerns regarding the maintenance of salt marshes and their resident wildlife in light of future climate conditions. We suggest that many salt marsh habitats are already impaired and are located where upslope transgression is restricted, resulting in reduction and loss of these habitats in the future. In addition, we conclude that increased inundation frequency and water depth will have negative impacts on the demography of small or isolated wildlife meta-populations as well as their community interactions. We illustrate our points with a case study on the Pacific Coast of North America at San Pablo Bay National Wildlife Refuge in California, an area that supports endangered wildlife species reliant on salt marshes for all aspects of their life histories.

Journal of Coastal Research↗
USGS2022

Long-term apparent survival of a cold-stunned subpopulation of juveniles green turtles

Understanding the effects of extreme weather on animal populations is fundamental to ecological and conservation sciences and species management. Climate change has resulted in both warm and cold temperature extremes, including an increased frequency of severe cold snaps at middle latitudes in North America. These unusually cold air masses cause rapid declines in nearshore ocean temperatures in coastal areas, with detrimental effects on marine organisms. Acute cold-stun events (hereafter cold stuns) occur when hundreds to thousands of resident juvenile sea turtles fail to escape shallow water during cold snaps. Human intervention through rescue and recovery largely mitigates direct juvenile sea turtle mortality, but delayed effects of cold stuns on rescued individuals are not well understood. Our objective was to examine long-term juvenile green turtle ( Chelonia mydas ) survival across four cold stuns of varying severity in St. Joseph Bay, Florida, between 2010 and 2018. We used the classic Cormack–Jolly–Seber model in a hierarchical Bayesian framework to estimate apparent survival (i.e., emigration and mortality) of rescued turtles at different time intervals. Our results indicated about half of a cohort rescued during a severe cold stun in January 2010 likely remained in the population 1 year later, with 10%–20% remaining 4 years later, and as few as 5% by 2018. The results also suggested higher apparent survival for cohorts rescued during two subsequent milder cold stuns. Emigration was a more plausible ecological explanation for low apparent survival than delayed mortality. Potential ecological mechanisms underlying emigration include a reduction in food availability and a behavioral response to either the severe weather event or handling during rescue (or both). However, the typical annual turnover of juvenile green turtles, though assumed low, is not well known in St. Joseph Bay. Thus, our apparent survival estimates may be reflective of higher-than-expected emigration in the broader population. Our study provides important baseline information about long-term juvenile sea turtle survival after cold stuns in temperate regions. We also highlight the importance of strategic monitoring between cold stuns to examine additional ecological questions.

Florida↗
USGS2024

Incorporating climate data into emergency planning and exercises: A primer for emergency management practioners and data developers

Climate change has and will continue to sharpen climate-related risks to communities and natural resources in California and elsewhere, as the probabilities of more extreme weather, floods, and fires continue to increase. This poses a problem of novel situations for emergency management. Progress has been made in terms of formally incorporating climate projections, data, and research on expected changes in climate-driven hazards into long-term hazard mitigation and climate adaptation strategies at both state and national levels. However, there are fewer examples of how climate change considerations have, or could be, incorporated into shorter-term emergency preparedness and response strategies. This is an important gap to fill, as climate resilience depends not only on mitigation and prevention measures, but also on the ability of agencies to coordinate and effectively minimize impacts when prevention measures fall short. The goal of this primer is to provide guidance on how to incorporate the best available information on climate variability and change into emergency management planning, with a focus on the development and use of extreme weather event scenarios for use in exercises. The first section is aimed toward a broad audience, including emergency management practitioners who use extreme weather event scenarios. It provides an overview of available data and tools that can inform scenario design as well as techniques for scenario design based on the hazard of interest, the audience and application, and the technical skills and resources required to develop, summarize, and/or visualize the data. This section concludes with an overview of approaches and lessons learned related to extreme event response planning and exercise design. Overall, this section highlights the advantages of developing quantitative scenarios based on spatial data, which allows visualizations and interactive data explorations that can provide greater specificity in discussions related to preparedness and response strategies. It further highlights the advantages of developing a core expert working group to guide planning, holding pre-exercise workshops to engage diverse communities outside of the emergency management sector, and engaging decisionmakers post-exercise to communicate key issues and outcomes as well as potential approaches for mitigating consequences that were identified by participants. The second section is aimed toward the scientific community and data developers involved in the creation of extreme weather event scenarios. This section provides technical guidance and detailed descriptions of four types of data resources and five analytical approaches that can be used to create extreme weather event scenarios based on the design considerations highlighted in section one. The computational resources and expertise required varies substantially across the options presented and is a primary consideration. These requirements, in addition to considerations related to audience and application, may determine the novelty and detail of the event, the detail of weather forecast information that can be provided, and the spatial extent across which the event can reasonably be modeled. The importance of, and approaches for, delivering information in a form that is accessible to emergency management practitioners is also discussed.

Report↗
USGS2010

Why Study Paleoclimate?

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) researchers are at the forefront of paleoclimate research, the study of past climates. With their unique skills and perspective, only geologists have the tools necessary to delve into the distant past (long before instrumental records were collected) in order to better understand global environmental conditions that were very different from today's conditions. Paleoclimatologists are geologists who study past climates to answer questions about what the Earth was like in the past and to enable projections, plans, and preparations for the future. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has projected a future warmer climate that has the potential to affect every person on Earth. Extreme weather events, rising sea level, and migrating ecosystems and resources could result in worldwide socio-economic stresses if not met with prudent and proactive action plans based on quality scientific research. Still, the most dangerous aspect of our changing climate is the uncertainty in the exact nature and rate of projected climate change. To reduce the uncertainties, USGS paleoclimatologists are studying a possible analog to a future warmer climate. The middle part of the Piacenzian Stage of the Pliocene Epoch, about 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago, is the most recent period in Earth's history in which global warmth reached and remained at temperatures similar to those projected for the end of this century, about 2 degrees C to 3 degrees C warmer on average than today over the entire globe. This past warmer time interval preceded the ice ages but was recent enough, geologically, to be very similar to today in terms of ocean circulation and the position of the continents. Also, the populations of plants and animals were much like those of today, and so geologists can use their fossils to estimate past environmental conditions such as temperature and sea level.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2016

Insect community responses to climate and weather across elevation gradients in the Sagebrush Steppe, eastern Oregon

Executive Summary In this study, the U.S. Geological Survey investigated the use of insects as bioindicators of climate change in sagebrush steppe shrublands and grasslands in the Upper Columbia Basin. The research was conducted in the Stinkingwater and Pueblo mountain ranges in eastern Oregon on lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management. We used a “space-for-time” sampling design that related insect communities to climate and weather along elevation gradients. We analyzed our insect dataset at three levels of organization: (1) whole-community, (2) feeding guilds (detritivores, herbivores, nectarivores, parasites, and predators), and (3) orders within nectarivores (i.e., pollinators). We captured 59,517 insects from 176 families and 10 orders at the Pueblo Mountains study area and 112,305 insects from 185 families and 11 orders at the Stinkingwater Mountains study area in 2012 and 2013. Of all the individuals captured at the Stinkingwater Mountains study area, 77,688 were from the family Cecidomyiidae (Diptera, gall gnats). We found that the composition of insect communities was associated with variability in long-term (30-yr) temperature and interannual fluctuations in temperature. We found that captures of certain fly, bee, moth, and butterfly pollinators were more strongly associated with some climate and vegetation variables than others. We found that timing of emergence, as measured by first detection of families, was associated with elevation. When analyzed by feeding guilds, we found that all guilds emerged later at high elevations except for detritivores, which emerged earlier at high elevations. The abundance of most taxa varied through time, mostly in response to temperature and precipitation. Of the pollinators, bees (particularly, Halictidae and Megachilidae) peaked in abundance in late June and early July, whereas butterflies and moths peaked in August. Flies peaked in abundance in July. Overall, our interpretation of these patterns is that insect communities respond positively and negatively to weather and local vegetation more than to long-term climate. Given increasing variability in weather and high probability of extreme weather events, insect communities in sagebrush steppe also may experience considerable fluctuations in composition and abundance, as well as phenology. These findings have implications for many ecosystem services, including pollination, decomposition, and food resources for predatory birds and other vertebrates.

Oregon↗
USGS2017

Evidence of fuels management and fire weather influencing fire severity in an extreme fire event

Following changes in vegetation structure and pattern, along with a changing climate, large wildfire incidence has increased in forests throughout the western U.S. Given this increase there is great interest in whether fuels treatments and previous wildfire can alter fire severity patterns in large wildfires. We assessed the relative influence of previous fuels treatments (including wildfire), fire weather, vegetation and water balance on fire severity in the Rim Fire of 2013. We did this at three different spatial scales to investigate whether the influences on fire severity changed across scales. Both fuels treatments and previous low to moderate severity wildfire reduced the prevalence of high severity fire. In general, areas without recent fuels treatments and areas that previously burned at high severity tended to have a greater proportion of high severity fire in the Rim Fire. Areas treated with prescribed fire, especially when combined with thinning, had the lowest proportions of high severity. Proportion of the landscape burned at high severity was most strongly influenced by fire weather and proportional area previously treated for fuels or burned by low to moderate severity wildfire. The proportion treated needed to effectively reduce the amount of high fire severity fire varied by spatial scale of analysis, with smaller spatial scales requiring a greater proportion treated to see an effect on fire severity. When moderate and high severity fire encountered a previously treated area, fire severity was significantly reduced in the treated area relative to the adjacent untreated area. Our results show that fuels treatments and low to moderate severity wildfire can reduce fire severity in a subsequent wildfire, even when burning under fire growth conditions. These results serve as further evidence that both fuels treatments and lower severity wildfire can increase forest resilience.

California↗
USGS2017

Tambora and the mackerel year: Phenology and fisheries during an extreme climate event

Global warming has increased the frequency of extreme climate events, yet responses of biological and human communities are poorly understood, particularly for aquatic ecosystems and fisheries. Retrospective analysis of known outcomes may provide insights into the nature of adaptations and trajectory of subsequent conditions. We consider the 1815 eruption of the Indonesian volcano Tambora and its impact on Gulf of Maine (GoM) coastal and riparian fisheries in 1816. Applying complex adaptive systems theory with historical methods, we analyzed fish export data and contemporary climate records to disclose human and piscine responses to Tambora’s extreme weather at different spatial and temporal scales while also considering sociopolitical influences. Results identified a tipping point in GoM fisheries induced by concatenating social and biological responses to extreme weather. Abnormal daily temperatures selectively affected targeted fish species—alewives, shad, herring, and mackerel—according to their migration and spawning phenologies and temperature tolerances. First to arrive, alewives suffered the worst. Crop failure and incipient famine intensified fishing pressure, especially in heavily settled regions where dams already compromised watersheds. Insufficient alewife runs led fishers to target mackerel, the next species appearing in abundance along the coast; thus, 1816 became the “mackerel year.” Critically, the shift from riparian to marine fisheries persisted and expanded after temperatures moderated and alewives recovered. We conclude that contingent human adaptations to extraordinary weather permanently altered this complex system. Understanding how adaptive responses to extreme events can trigger unintended consequences may advance long-term planning for resilience in an uncertain future.

Maine, Massachusetts↗
USGS2019

The risk reduction benefits of the Mesoamerican Reef in Mexico

Coastal development and climate change are dramatically increasing the risks of flooding, erosion, and extreme weather events. Coral reefs and other coastal ecosystems act as natural defenses against coastal hazards, but their degradation increases risk to people and property. Environmental degradation, however, has rarely been quantified as a driver of coastal risk. In Quintana Roo, Mexico, a region on the Mexican Caribbean coast with an annual tourism economy of 10 billion USD, coral reefs constitute a natural barrier against flooding from hurricanes. This study spatially quantifies the risk reduction benefits of the Mesoamerican Reef in Quintana Roo for people, buildings, and hotel infrastructure. The risk reduction benefits are substantial. For example, the reefs prevented 43% additional damage during Hurricane Dean in (2007) and provide nowadays hazard risk reduction for 4.3% of the people, 1.9% of the built capital, and 2.4% of the hotel infrastructure, per year. The annual benefits are estimated in 4,600 people, 42 million USD damage prevention for buildings, and 20.8 million USD for hotel infrastructure. The study also compares the risk reduction of coral reefs with (i) the protection offered by dunes and (ii) the increase in coastal risk from sea-level rise (SLR). The risk reduction of dunes is more critical where there are no coral reefs offshore and for small return-periods storms. Sea-level rise, however, will make the more frequent storms more impactful and will drive significant increases in annual expected damages across the region. However, we demonstrate that, in coral reef environments, the contribution of reef degradation to coastal risk is larger than the expected increase in risk from SLR. However, the spatial distribution of the risk reduction benefits from reefs differs for people and infrastructure, and in particular for hotels, which receive the most protection from reefs. Furthermore, many sections present larger benefits than the typical costs of restoration. This valuation makes a compelling case for protecting and maintaining this natural infrastructure for its risk reduction service, but also allows the development of piloting innovative strategies, such as risk finance and insurance strategies, that can align environmental and risk management goals.

Mesoamerican Reef↗
USGS2018

U.S. Caribbean

Historically, the U.S. Caribbean region has experienced relatively stable seasonal rainfall patterns, moderate annual temperature fluctuations, and a variety of extreme weather events, such as tropical storms, hurricanes, and drought. However, the Caribbean climate is changing and is projected to be increasingly variable as levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increase. The high percentage of coastal area relative to the total island land area in the U.S. Caribbean means that a large proportion of the region’s people, infrastructure, and economic activity are vulnerable to sea level rise, more frequent intense rainfall events and associated coastal flooding, and saltwater intrusion. High levels of exposure and sensitivity to risk in the U.S. Caribbean region are compounded by a low level of adaptive capacity, due in part to the high costs of mitigation and adaptation measures relative to the region’s gross domestic product, particularly when compared to continental U.S. coastal areas. The limited geographic and economic scale of Caribbean islands means that disruptions from extreme climate-related events, such as droughts and hurricanes, can devastate large portions of local economies and cause widespread damage to crops, water supplies, infrastructure, and other critical resources and services. The U.S. Caribbean territories of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) have distinct differences in topography, language, population size, governance, natural and human resources, and economic capacity. However, both are highly dependent on natural and built coastal assets; service-related industries account for more than 60% of the USVI economy. Beaches, affected by sea level rise and erosion, are among the main tourist attractions. In Puerto Rico, critical infrastructure (for example, drinking water pipelines and pump stations, sanitary pipelines and pump stations, wastewater treatment plants, and power plants) is vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise, storm surge , and flooding. In the USVI, infrastructure and historical buildings in the inundation zone for sea level rise include the power plants on both St. Thomas and St. Croix; schools; housing communities; the towns of Charlotte Amalie, Christiansted, and Frederiksted; and pipelines for water and sewage. Climate change will likely result in water shortages due to an overall decrease in annual rainfall, a reduction in ecosystem services, and increased risks for agriculture, human health, wildlife, and socioeconomic development in the U.S. Caribbean. These shortages would result from some locations within the Caribbean experiencing longer dry seasons and shorter, but wetter, wet seasons in the future. Extended dry seasons are projected to increase fire likelihood. Excessive rainfall, coupled with poor construction practices, unpaved roads, and steep slopes, can exacerbate erosion rates and have adverse effects on reservoir capacity, water quality, and nearshore marine habitats. Ocean warming poses a significant threat to the survival of corals and will likely also cause shifts in associated habitats that compose the coral reef ecosystem . Severe, repeated, or prolonged periods of high temperatures leading to extended coral bleaching can result in colony death. Ocean acidification also is likely to diminish the structural integrity of coral habitats. Studies show that major shifts in fisheries distribution and changes to the structure and composition of marine habitats adversely affect food security, shoreline protection, and economies throughout the Caribbean. In Puerto Rico, the annual number of days with temperatures above 90°F has increased over the last four and a half decades. During that period, stroke and cardiovascular disease, which are influenced by such elevated temperatures, became the primary causes of death. Increases in average temperature and in extreme heat events will likely have detrimental effects on agricultural operations throughout the U.S. Caribbean region. Many farmers in the tropics, including the U.S. Caribbean, are considered small-holding, limited resource farmers and often lack the resources and/or capital to adapt to changing conditions. Most Caribbean countries and territories share the need to assess risks, enable actions across scales, and assess changes in ecosystems to inform decision-making on habitat protection under a changing climate. U.S. Caribbean islands have the potential to improve adaptation and mitigation actions by fostering stronger collaborations with Caribbean initiatives on climate change and disaster risk reduction.

Report↗
USGS2013

Extreme rainfall, vulnerability and risk: a continental-scale assessment for South America

Extreme weather continues to preoccupy society as a formidable public safety concern bearing huge economic costs. While attention has focused on global climate change and how it could intensify key elements of the water cycle such as precipitation and river discharge, it is the conjunction of geophysical and socioeconomic forces that shapes human sensitivity and risks to weather extremes. We demonstrate here the use of high-resolution geophysical and population datasets together with documentary reports of rainfall-induced damage across South America over a multi-decadal, retrospective time domain (1960–2000). We define and map extreme precipitation hazard , exposure , affected populations, vulnerability and risk , and use these variables to analyse the impact of floods as a water security issue. Geospatial experiments uncover major sources of risk from natural climate variability and population growth, with change in climate extremes bearing a minor role. While rural populations display greatest relative sensitivity to extreme rainfall, urban settings show the highest rates of increasing risk. In the coming decades, rapid urbanization will make South American cities the focal point of future climate threats but also an opportunity for reducing vulnerability, protecting lives and sustaining economic development through both traditional and ecosystem-based disaster risk management systems.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:↗
USGS2022

Iowa and Landsat

Iowa is famous for plenty of reasons—its State Fair butter sculptures, its first-in-the-Nation presidential caucuses, and the Iowa Hawkeyes football team, whose mascot doubles as the State nickname—but “corn” might be the first word to cross the mind of a non-Iowan. Iowa consistently leads the United States in corn production and in the production of hogs, which in turn consume a sizable share of the corn grown there. Corn also drives Iowa’s ethanol industry, which put nearly 4.5 billion gallons of fuel into the supply chain in 2020—more than any other State. Iowa owes its agricultural dominance largely to its fertile soils, making land management decisions critical to its future. Changes to land cover, more intensive land use, unusual precipitation patterns, and temperature changes, coupled with an influx of extreme weather events—some of which can be tied to or exacerbated by climate change—have placed pressure on the productive farm ground of Iowa’s 99 counties. Landsat Program satellites can be especially useful in the monitoring and management of croplands across the United States. Backed by a 50-year record of Earth surface change, Landsat satellites can detect the details of vegetation health by peering into the infrared and near-infrared parts of the electromagnetic spectrum. Iowa has long served as a proving ground for Landsat-based agricultural research, and its residents and leaders have benefited from that work. Here are a few examples of how the Landsat Program benefits Iowa.

Iowa↗
USGS2012

Extreme weather and experience influence reproduction in an endangered bird

Extreme weather events, such as droughts and heat waves, are expected to become more severe and more frequent in the coming years, and understanding their impacts on demographic rates is of increasing interest to both evolutionary ecologists and conservation practitioners. An individual's breeding probability can be a sensitive indicator of the decision to initiate reproductive behavior under varying environmental conditions, has strong fitness consequences, and can be considered the first step in a life history trade-off between allocating resources for breeding activities or self-survival. Using a 14-year time series spanning large variation in climatic conditions and the entirety of a population's breeding range, we estimated the effects of extreme weather conditions (drought) on the state-specific probabilities of breeding and survival of an endangered bird, the Florida Snail Kite ( Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus ). Our analysis accounted for uncertainty in breeding status assignment, a common source of uncertainty that is often ignored when states are based on field observations. Breeding probabilities in adult kites (>1 year of age) decreased during droughts, whereas the probability of breeding in young kites (1 year of age) tended to increase. Individuals attempting to breed showed no evidence of reduced future survival. Although population viability analyses of this species and other species often implicitly assume that all adults will attempt to breed, we find that breeding probabilities were significantly <1 for all 13 estimable years considered. Our results suggest that experience is an important factor determining whether or not individuals attempt to breed during harsh environmental conditions and that reproductive effort may be constrained by an individual's quality and/or despotic behavior among individuals attempting to breed.

Florida↗
USGS2026

Resources to inform the 2026 Colorado Climate Preparedness Roadmap: Compound hazards and associated public health implications

Changing environmental conditions are increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather and environmental hazards, including heat waves, wildfires, drought, reduced water quality, and degraded air quality from ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter pollution (AghaKouchak et al., 2020; Bolinger et al., 2024; Colorado Health Institute, 2023a; Fann et al., 2015; IPCC, 2023a; Nagamoto et al., 2024; Nolte et al., 2018, 2021; Zscheischler et al., 2020). Strong scientific evidence indicates that climate change will increase risks to public health and safety throughout the 21st century, particularly through compound climate events (AghaKouchak et al., 2020; Cascio, 2018; Childs et al., 2022; Ebi, 2025; IPCC, 2023a, 2023b; Ma et al., 2024; Marlier et al., 2026; National Academy of Medicine, 2025; Reid et al., 2016; Reid & Maestas, 2019; Simpson et al., 2023; van den Hurk et al., 2023; Volckens, 2024; Zscheischler et al., 2018, 2020). Compound hazards, which are co-occurring or sequential hazards such as heat waves occurring alongside drought, wildfire, and poor air quality from smoke, can amplify public health risks beyond the effects of individual hazards alone (Marlier et al., 2026; Zscheischler et al., 2020). In Colorado, compound climate events with clear implications for public health are already evident (see “Core definitions” section for additional context on compound climate events). Recent statewide assessments have documented increasing heat waves, drought, and wildfires linked to rising temperatures, while emerging data show that climate change is reversing decades of air quality improvements through increased O3 and fine particulate matter pollution due to wildfire, and increased aerosolized topsoil (i.e., dust) due to drought (Bolinger et al., 2024; Childs et al., 2022; Fann et al., 2015; Ghanbari et al., 2023; Larsen et al., 2022; Nolte et al., 2018, 2021; Volckens, 2024). These environmental shifts are associated with increases in eye and kidney-health related concerns, heat-related illness, exacerbations of asthma and other respiratory conditions, increased risk of infectious disease, cardiovascular stress, and mental health impacts, with disparities in risk for children, older adults, outdoor workers, and communities with existing health and economic vulnerabilities (Baraghoshi et al., 2023; Butler-Dawson et al., 2026; Cascio, 2018; Cleland et al., 2022; Colorado Health Institute, 2023a; Grover et al., 2024; Lee et al., 2023; Ma et al., 2024; Macaluso et al., 2024; Marlier et al., 2026; National Academy of Medicine, 2025; Patnaik et al., 2024; Peters et al., 2019; Reid et al., 2016; Reid & Maestas, 2019). The state is actively pursuing strategies to mitigate the risks of these compound climate events on the public, including expanding climate and health surveillance, strengthening early-warning systems and public communication around smoke and air quality, and developing integrated policy agendas that link climate mitigation, adaptation, and health equity (CDPHE, 2025; Colorado Health Institute, 2023b; Zemaitis & Bailey, 2024). For example, state and partner organizations have articulated cross-sector goals to prepare for health impacts related to extreme heat, wildfires, flooding, drought, declines in water quality, and poor air quality, including updating workplace safety protocols, enhancing community-based resilience, adapting clinical care assessments to include climate-related stressors, and improving access to mental and behavioral health services following climate-related disasters (Colorado Health Institute, 2023b; CDPHE, 2025; Zemaitis & Bailey, 2024). To better prepare for current risks and make informed decisions, more information is needed, including methods to analyze historical and projected conditions in near real time, characterize interactions among compound hazards, and translate climate and air quality science into actionable guidance for public health agencies, health care systems, and communities across Colorado (Ebi, 2025; Marlier et al., 2026; National Academy of Medicine, 2025; Simpson et al., 2023; Zscheischler et al., 2018). For this report, we focus on extreme heat and outdoor air quality (ozone [O3] and fine particulate matter [PM2.5]) as the main compound hazards causing compound climate events, given that 1) the state of Colorado has experienced poor air quality for some time, 2) these climate events are affecting large population numbers, and 3) there is capacity to consider and respond to these climate-driven events.

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