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USGS2021

Trends in precipitation chemistry across the U.S. 1985–2017: Quantifying the benefits from 30 years of Clean Air Act amendment regulation

Acid rain was first recognized in the 1970s in North America and Europe as an atmospheric pollutant that was causing harm to ecosystems. In response, the U.S. Congress enacted Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendments (CAA) in 1990 to reduce sulfur and nitrogen emissions from fossil fuel burning power plants. This study reports trends in wet-precipitation chemistry in response to emissions reductions implemented as part of the CAA. Trends were calculated for sulfate (SO 4 ), nitrate (NO 3 ) and ammonium (NH 4 ) from 1985 to 2017 at 168 stations operated by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP); stations were divided into 9 regions across the United States. Trend analyses were conducted for three time periods: Period 1 (1985–1999), Period 2 (2000–2017), and the entire study period (1985–2017). Seasonal and regional Kendall trend analyses reveal significant decreasing trends in mean wet-precipitation SO 4 concentrations in all 9 regions during the entire study period. The largest decreasing trends in monthly mean SO 4 precipitation-weighted concentrations were measured in the Mid-Atlantic (−1.29 μeq/l/yr), Midwest (−1.15 μeq/l/yr), and Northeast regions (−1.10 μeq/l/yr). The trends in monthly mean NO 3 concentrations were not as strong as those for SO 4 , but all of the regions had significant decreasing trends in NO 3 and again the Mid-Atlantic (−0.53 μeq/l/yr), Midwest (−0.44 μeq/l/yr), and Northeast regions (−0.50 μeq/l/yr) had the strongest trends. Trends were steepest during Period 2 for SO 4 and NO 3 , in fact for NO 3 86% of the stations had significant decreasing trends during Period 2 while only 8% of the stations had significant decreasing trends during Period 1. The stations with the highest concentrations of SO 4 and NO 3 at the beginning of the study had the strongest decreasing trends and the relations were stronger during Period 2 than Period 1. For NH 4 , 22% of the stations had statistically significant increasing trends in concentration during Period 1. The largest increasing trends in wet-precipitation NH 4 concentration occurred in the North-Central region during Period 1, Period 2 and throughout the entire study. By comparison, NH 4 trends in the Rocky-North and Rocky-South regions were about half as steep and trends in the South-Central and Midwest regions were about one-third as steep. We compared trends in SO 4 and NO 3 concentrations from NADP stations to emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides, respectively to determine whether there was a relation between emissions and wet-precipitation concentration trends within proximity to NADP stations. There was a statistically significant relation (r 2 = 0.62–0.69, p < 0.01) between the trend in SO 4 concentrations at individual NADP stations and total and mean sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions from power plants within a range of 750 km and 1000 km from each station. There were also significant relations between NO 3 concentration trends at NADP stations and power plant emissions of nitrogen oxides, but they were not nearly as strong (r 2 = 0.18–0.36, p < 0.01) as those for SO 4 and were strongest for emissions within a range of 1000 km and 1500 km from each NADP station. Decreases in wet-precipitation SO 4 concentrations were more consistent across regions and through time than decreases in NO 3 and SO 4 trends were more closely linked to stationary emissions sources than NO 3 trends. There were statistically significant increases in NH 4 wet-precipitation concentrations, as have been reported in previous studies, but this study found that those increases were strongest during Period 1 and were not consistent across the United States. During the first 3 years of the study period, wet-precipitation acidity was dominated by SO 4 in 8 of the 9 regions; by 2017 NO 3 dominated the acidity of wet-precipitation in 7 of the 9 regions. There has also been a downward shift in the NO 3 :NH 4 ratio of wet-precipitation as the emissions of nitrogen oxides have declined while ammonia emissions have remained essentially constant. This shift has resulted in an increase in wet-precipitation total nitrogen concentrations in 7 of the 9 regions and indicate that efforts to control NH 3 emissions will become increasingly important as emissions of nitrogen oxides continue to decline.

Atmospheric Environment↗

USGS2020

Trends in streamflow and precipitation for selected sites in the Elkhorn River Basin and in streamflow in the Salt Creek and Platte River Basins, Nebraska, 1961–2011

To better understand the streamflow trends at the streamgages in the Elkhorn River Basin in Nebraska, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Lower Elkhorn Natural Resources District further investigated streamflow trends at the eight streamgages on the Elkhorn River, Salt Creek, and the Lower Platte River that indicated a positive trend in streamflow characteristics and analyzed precipitation trends in the four basins upstream from the Elkhorn River Basin streamgages. An analysis of four streamgages in the Elkhorn River Basin, one streamgage in Salt Creek Basin, and three streamgages in the Lower Platte River Basin that had previously indicated trends in selected annual mean streamflow, annual low flows, fall low flows, and growing season monthly mean streamflows metrics were analyzed for the period from 1961 to 2011. A streamgage in the Upper Elkhorn River Basin (Elkhorn River at Neligh, Nebraska [USGS station 06798500; maintained by USGS from water years 1930 to 1993, maintained by Nebraska Department of Natural Resources from water years 1994 to 2019]) had significant positive trends in annual mean streamflow and insignificant trends for other streamflow metrics whereas the lower three sites (Logan Creek near Uehling, Nebr. [USGS station 06799500]; Maple Creek at Nickerson, Nebr. [USGS station 06800000]; and Elkhorn River at Waterloo, Nebr. [USGS station 06800500]) had significant positive trends for annual mean streamflow, for all durations of the annual low-flow periods (1-day, 2-day, 3-day, 7-day, 14-day, 30-day, 60-day, 90-day, and 183-day periods), for all durations of the low-flow periods in October–November (1-day, 2-day, 3-day, 7-day, 14-day, 30-day, and 60-day periods), and for monthly mean streamflow for July, August, and September. Upstream from the confluence of the Elkhorn River and the Platte River, the Platte River at North Bend, Nebr. (USGS station 06796000), streamgage indicated insignificant trends for most streamflow metrics. A streamgage in the Salt Creek Basin (Salt Creek at Greenwood, Nebr. [USGS station 06803555]) also indicated positive trends in some low-flows metrics. Streamflow at the Platte River at Louisville, Nebr. (USGS station 06805500), streamgage, downstream from the Salt Creek and Elkhorn River inflows, indicated significant positive trends in most annual and all October–November low flows and August mean streamflow but insignificant trends in annual mean streamflow and June, July, and September monthly mean streamflows. Streamflow records for the Platte River near Duncan, Nebr. (USGS station 06774000), streamgage only indicated a significant trend in the August mean streamflow; no other metrics had significant trends at the streamgage. The trend analyses are sensitive to the period that is analyzed for trends. Sites with the most significant trends for low-flow metrics for the period 1961–2011 have fewer significant trends for low-flow metrics for the period after 1980–2011. The results indicate that positive trends in low flows at the Salt Creek and Elkhorn River streamgages may be contributing to positive trends in low flows for the Platte River at Louisville, Nebr., streamgage. Likewise, streamflow in the Salt Creek and Elkhorn River Basins may be contributing to the positive trend in August mean streamflow for the Platte River at Louisville, Nebr., streamgage, three lower Elkhorn River streamgages, and the Salt Creek streamgage. Precipitation was also examined as a primary cause for streamflow trends in the Elkhorn River Basin. For the four streamgages in the Elkhorn River Basin, relations between precipitation and streamflow were examined on an annual and monthly basis using linear regression. In general, the goodness of fit for the linear relations was poor with coefficient of determination values of less than or equal to 0.10 for four of the eight relations. Only one significant increase in annual precipitation upstream from the four streamgages and the frequent detection of significant increases in streamflow after removing the effect of precipitation indicate that other factors besides precipitation may have played a role in the significant positive trends in low-flow periods in the lower Elkhorn River and its tributaries.

Nebraska↗

USGS2017

Groundwater-quality data in 12 GAMA study units: Results from the 2006–10 initial sampling period and the 2008–13 trend sampling period, California GAMA Priority Basin Project

The Priority Basin Project (PBP) of the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) program was developed in response to the Groundwater Quality Monitoring Act of 2001 and is being conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the California State Water Resources Control Board. From 2004 through 2012, the GAMA-PBP collected samples and assessed the quality of groundwater resources that supply public drinking water in 35 study units across the State. Selected sites in each study unit were sampled again approximately 3 years after initial sampling as part of an assessment of temporal trends in water quality by the GAMA-PBP. Twelve of the study units, initially sampled during 2006–11 (initial sampling period) and sampled a second time during 2008–13 (trend sampling period) to assess temporal trends, are the subject of this report. The initial sampling was designed to provide a spatially unbiased assessment of the quality of untreated groundwater used for public water supplies in the 12 study units. In these study units, 550 sampling sites were selected by using a spatially distributed, randomized, grid-based method to provide spatially unbiased representation of the areas assessed (grid sites, also called “status sites”). After the initial sampling period, 76 of the previously sampled status sites (approximately 10 percent in each study unit) were randomly selected for trend sampling (“trend sites”). The 12 study units sampled both during the initial sampling and during the trend sampling period were distributed among 6 hydrogeologic provinces: Coastal (Northern and Southern), Transverse Ranges and Selected Peninsular Ranges, Klamath, Modoc Plateau and Cascades, and Sierra Nevada Hydrogeologic Provinces. For the purposes of this trend report, the six hydrogeologic provinces were grouped into two hydrogeologic regions based on location: Coastal and Mountain. The groundwater samples were analyzed for a number of synthetic organic constituents (volatile organic compounds, pesticides, and pesticide degradates), constituents of special interest (perchlorate and 1,2,3-trichloropropane), and natural inorganic constituents (nutrients, major and minor ions, and trace elements). Isotopic tracers (tritium, carbon-14, and stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in water) also were measured to help identify processes affecting groundwater quality and the sources and ages of the sampled groundwater. More than 200 constituents and water-quality indicators were measured during the trend sampling period. Quality-control samples (blanks, replicates, matrix-spikes, and surrogate compounds) were collected at about one-third of the trend sites, and the results for these samples were used to evaluate the quality of the data for the groundwater samples. On the basis of detections in laboratory and field blank samples collected by GAMA-PBP study units, including the 12 study units presented here, reporting levels for some groundwater results were adjusted in this report. Differences between replicate samples were mostly within acceptable ranges, indicating low variability in analytical results. Matrix-spike recoveries were largely within the acceptable range (70 to 130 percent). This study did not attempt to evaluate the quality of water delivered to consumers. After withdrawal, groundwater used for drinking water typically is treated, disinfected, and blended with other waters to achieve acceptable water quality. The comparison benchmarks used in this report apply to treated water that is served to the consumer, not to untreated groundwater. To provide some context for the results, however, concentrations of constituents measured in these groundwater samples were compared with benchmarks established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the State of California. Comparisons between data collected for this study and benchmarks for drinking water are for illustrative purposes only and are not indicative of compliance or non-compliance with those benchmarks. Most organic constituents that were detected in groundwater samples from the trend sites were found at concentrations less than health-based benchmarks. One volatile organic compound—perchloroethene—was detected at a concentration greater than the health-based benchmark in samples from one trend site during the initial and trend sampling periods. Chloroform was detected in at least 10 percent of the samples at trend sites in both sampling periods. Methyl tert -butyl ether was detected in samples from more than 10 percent of the trend sites during the initial sampling period. No pesticide or pesticide degradate was detected in greater than 10 percent of the samples from trend sites or at concentrations greater than their health-based benchmarks during either sampling period. Nutrients were not detected at concentrations greater than their health-based benchmarks during either sampling period. Most detections of major ions and trace elements in samples from trend sites were less than health-based benchmarks during both sampling periods. Arsenic and boron each were detected at concentrations greater than the health-based benchmark in samples from four trend sites during the initial and trend sampling periods. Molybdenum was detected in samples from four trend sites at concentrations greater than the health-based benchmark during both sampling periods. Samples from two of these trend sites had similar molybdenum concentrations, and two had substantially different concentrations during the initial and trend sampling periods. Uranium was detected at a concentration greater than the health-based benchmark only at two trend sites.

California↗

USGS2010

Trends in pesticide concentrations in urban streams in the United States, 1992-2008

Pesticide concentration trends in streams dominated by urban land use were assessed using data from 27 urban streams sampled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program. The sites were divided into four regions, Northeast, South, Midwest, and West, to examine possible regional patterns. Three partially overlapping 9-year periods (1992-2000, 1996-2004, and 2000-2008) were examined for eight herbicides and one degradation product (simazine, prometon, atrazine, deethylatrazine, metolachlor, trifluralin, pendimethalin, tebuthiuron, and Dacthal), and five insecticides and two degradation products (chlorpyrifos, malathion, diazinon, fipronil, fipronil sulfide, desulfinylfipronil, and carbaryl). The data were analyzed for trends in concentration using a parametric regression model with seasonality, flow-related variability, and trend, called SEAWAVE-Q. The SEAWAVE-Q model also was used to generate estimated daily concentration percentiles for each analysis period to provide a summary of concentration magnitudes. For herbicides, the largest 90th percentiles of estimated concentrations for simazine were in the South, prometon at some sites in all of the regions, atrazine and deethylatrazine in the South and Midwest, metolachlor in the Midwest and a few sites in the South, pendimethalin at scattered sites in all of the regions, and tebuthiuron in the South and a few sites in the Midwest and West. For insecticides, the largest 90th percentiles of estimated concentrations for diazinon and carbaryl were distributed among various sites in all regions (especially during 1996-2004), and fipronil at isolated sites in all of the regions during 2000-2008. Trend analysis results for the herbicides indicated many significant trends, both upward and downward, with varying patterns depending on period, region, and herbicide. Overall, deethylatrazine showed the most consistent pattern of upward trends, especially in the Northeast (2000-2008), South (1996-2004 and 2000-2008), and Midwest (1996-2004 and 2000-2008). Other herbicides showed less consistent upward trends, including simazine in the South (1996-2004), prometon in the Midwest (2000-2008), and atrazine in the South (1996-2004). The most consistent downward trends were for simazine in the Northeast and Midwest (1996-2004), prometon in the Northeast and Midwest (1996-2004) and West (1996-2004 and 2000-2008), and tebuthiuron in the South (1996-2004 and 2000-2008) and West (2000-2008). Strong similarity existed between the trends for atrazine and deethylatrazine during 1996-2004. During 2000-2008, however, there were mixed upward and downward trends in atrazine and predominantly upward trends in deethylatrazine. Ten sites with a downward trend in atrazine were paired with an upward trend in deethylatrazine and for three of these sites (1 in the South and 2 in the Midwest) both opposing trends were significant. Opposing trends showing a decrease in atrazine and an increase in deethylatrazine may indicate that decreases in atrazine from surface runoff are being offset in some cases by increases in deethylatrazine from groundwater for the latter analysis period. Trend results for insecticides indicated widespread significant downward trends for chlorpyrifos (especially 1996-2004), diazinon (1996-2004 and 2000-2008), and malathion (especially 1996-2004); widespread significant upward trends for fipronil and its degradation products (2000-2008); and mostly nonsignificant trends for carbaryl (1996-2004 and 2000-2008). The downward trends for chlorpyrifos and diazinon were consistent with the regulatory phaseout of residential uses of these insecticides and the upward trends for fipronil and its degradation products were consistent with its introduction in 1996 and subsequent increasing use as a possible substitute for chlorpyrifos and diazinon. The downward trends in malathion may be caused by voluntary substitution of pyrethroids or fipronil for malathio

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2014

Trends in precipitation, streamflow, reservoir pool elevations, and reservoir releases in Arkansas and selected sites in Louisiana, Missouri, and Oklahoma, 1951–2011

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) conducted a statistical analysis of trends in precipitation, streamflow, reservoir pool elevations, and reservoir releases in Arkansas and selected sites in Louisiana, Missouri, and Oklahoma for the period 1951–2011. The Mann-Kendall test was used to test for trends in annual and seasonal precipitation, annual and seasonal streamflows of 42 continuous-record USGS streamflow-gaging stations, annual pool elevations and releases from 16 USACE reservoirs, and annual releases from 11 dams on the Arkansas River. A statistically significant (p≤0.10) upward trend was observed in annual precipitation for the State, with a Sen slope of approximately 0.10 inch per year. Autumn and winter were the only seasons that had statistically significant trends in precipitation. Five of six physiographic sections and six of seven 4-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC) regions in Arkansas had statistically significant upward trends in autumn precipitation, with Sen slopes of approximately 0.06 to 0.10 inch per year. Sixteen sites had statistically significant upward trends in the annual mean daily streamflow and were located on streams that drained regions with statistically significant upward trends in annual precipitation. Expected annual rates of change corresponding to statistically significant trends in annual mean daily streamflows, which ranged from 0.32 to 0.88 percent, were greater than those corresponding to regions with statistically significant upward trends in annual precipitation, which ranged from 0.19 to 0.28 percent, suggesting that the observed trends in regional annual precipitation do not fully account for the observed trends in annual mean daily streamflows. Trends in annual maximum daily streamflows were similar to trends in the annual mean daily streamflows but were only statistically significant at seven sites. There were more statistically significant trends (28 of 42 sites) in the annual minimum daily streamflows than in the annual means or maximums. Statistically significant trends in the annual minimum daily streamflows were upward at 18 sites and downward at 10 sites. Despite autumn being the only season that had statistically significant upward trends in seasonal precipitation, statistically significant upward trends in seasonal mean streamflows occurred in every season but spring. Trends in the annual mean, maximum, and minimum daily pool elevations of USACE reservoirs were consistent between metrics for reservoirs in the White, Arkansas, and Ouachita River watersheds, while trends varied between metrics at DeQueen Lake, Millwood Lake, and Lake Chicot. Most of the statistically significant trends in pool elevation metrics were upward and gradual—Sen slopes were less than 0.37 foot per year—and were likely the result of changes in reservoir regulation plans. Trends in the annual mean and maximum daily releases from USACE reservoirs were generally upward in all HUC regions. There were few statistically significant trends in the annual mean daily releases because the reservoirs are operated to maintain a regulation stage at a downstream site according to guidelines set forth in the regulation plans of the reservoirs. The annual number of low-flow days was both increasing and decreasing for reservoirs in northern Arkansas and southern Missouri and generally increasing for reservoirs in southern Arkansas.

Arkansas;Louisiana;Missouri;Oklahoma↗

USGS2015

Water-quality characteristics and trends for selected wells possibly influenced by wastewater disposal at the Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho, 1981-2012

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy, analyzed water-quality data collected from 64 aquifer wells and 35 perched groundwater wells at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) from 1981 through 2012. The wells selected for the study were wells that possibly were affected by wastewater disposal at the INL. The data analyzed included tritium, strontium-90, major cations, anions, nutrients, trace elements, total organic carbon, and volatile organic compounds. The analyses were performed to examine water-quality trends that might influence future management decisions about the number of wells to sample at the INL and the type of constituents to monitor. The data were processed using custom computer scripts developed in the R programming language. Summary statistics were calculated for the datasets. Water-quality trends were determined using a parametric survival regression model to fit the observed data, including left-censored, interval-censored, and uncensored data. The null hypothesis of the trend test was that no relation existed between time and concentration; the alternate hypothesis was that time and concentration were related through the regression equation. A significance level of 0.05 was selected to determine if the trend was statistically significant. Trend test results for tritium and strontium-90 concentrations in aquifer wells indicated that nearly all wells had decreasing or no trends. Similarly, trends in perched groundwater wells were mostly decreasing or no trends; trends were increasing in two perched groundwater wells near the Advanced Test Reactor Complex. Decreasing trends generally are attributed to lack of recent wastewater disposal and radioactive decay. Trend test results for chloride, sodium, sulfate, nitrite plus nitrate (as nitrogen), chromium, trace elements, and total organic carbon concentrations in aquifer wells indicated that most wells had either decreasing or no trends. The decreasing trends in these constituents are attributed to decrease in disposal of these constituents, as well as discontinued use of the old percolation ponds south of the Idaho Nuclear Technology and Engineering Center (INTEC) and redirection of wastewater to the new percolation ponds 2 miles southwest of the INTEC in 2002. Chloride (along with sodium, sulfate, and some nitrate) concentrations in wells south of the INTEC may be influenced by episodic recharge from the Big Lost River. These constituent concentrations decrease during wetter periods when there is probably more recharge from the Big Lost River and increase during dry periods, when there is less recharge. Some wells downgradient of the Central Facilities Area and near the southern boundary of the INL showed increasing trends in sodium concentration, whereas there was no trend in chloride. The increasing trend for sodium could be due to the long term influence of wastewater disposal from upgradient facilities and the lack of trend for chloride could be because chloride is more mobile than sodium and more dispersed in the aquifer system. Volatile organic compound concentration trends were analyzed for nine aquifer wells. Trend test results indicated an increasing trend for carbon tetrachloride for the Radioactive Waste Management Complex Production Well for the period 1987–2012; however, trend analyses of data collected since 2005 show no statistically significant trend indicating that engineering practices designed to reduce movement of volatile organic compounds to the aquifer may be having a positive effect on the aquifer.

Idaho↗

USGS2016

Application of a Weighted Regression Model for Reporting Nutrient and Sediment Concentrations, Fluxes, and Trends in Concentration and Flux for the Chesapeake Bay Nontidal Water-Quality Monitoring Network, Results Through Water Year 2012

In the Chesapeake Bay watershed, estimated fluxes of nutrients and sediment from the bay’s nontidal tributaries into the estuary are the foundation of decision making to meet reductions prescribed by the Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) and are often the basis for refining scientific understanding of the watershed-scale processes that influence the delivery of these constituents to the bay. Two regression-based flux and trend estimation models, ESTIMATOR and Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS), were compared using data from 80 watersheds in the Chesapeake Bay Nontidal Water-Quality Monitoring Network (CBNTN). The watersheds range in size from 62 to 70,189 square kilometers and record lengths range from 6 to 28 years. ESTIMATOR is a constant-parameter model that estimates trends only in concentration; WRTDS uses variable parameters estimated with weighted regression, and estimates trends in both concentration and flux. WRTDS had greater explanatory power than ESTIMATOR, with the greatest degree of improvement evident for records longer than 25 years (30 stations; improvement in median model R 2 = 0.06 for total nitrogen, 0.08 for total phosphorus, and 0.05 for sediment) and the least degree of improvement for records of less than 10 years, for which the two models performed nearly equally. Flux bias statistics were comparable or lower (more favorable) for WRTDS for any record length; for 30 stations with records longer than 25 years, the greatest degree of improvement was evident for sediment (decrease of 0.17 in median statistic) and total phosphorus (decrease of 0.05). The overall between-station pattern in concentration trend direction and magnitude for all constituents was roughly similar for both models. A detailed case study revealed that trends in concentration estimated by WRTDS can operationally be viewed as a less-constrained equivalent to trends in concentration estimated by ESTIMATOR. Estimates of annual mean flow-adjusted (ESTIMATOR) and flow-normalized (WRTDS) concentration for years initially constituting the end of a water-quality record showed a similar degree of variability as data for additional years were incrementally added and the initial estimates “aged.” On the basis of the results of this broad comparison of the two models, the U.S. Geological Survey is adopting WRTDS as the primary model for estimating constituent fluxes and trends throughout the CBNTN. Nutrient and sediment flux and trend estimates, based on WRTDS, are summarized narratively and tabulated in appendixes for all stations for which fluxes or trends were reported through water year 2012. WRTDS also was used to explore the sensitivity of flux and trend estimates to three data-quality issues common in many large-scale monitoring networks and evident in some of the CBNTN records. The potential effects of inconsistency in annual sampling effort and inconsistency in storm sampling effort were explored by way of a subsampling experiment using eight of the most densely sampled long-term (1985–2012) stations in the CBNTN as baseline datasets. From each dataset, a set of 10 “design guideline” subsamples was selected, consisting of 12 monthly samples and 8 targeted storm samples per year. The selection was conducted in a manner that preserved the overall intensity of storm sampling in the baseline data. These 10 subsamples were further manipulated to create “heterogeneous” subsamples by removing storm samples prior to 2003. The maximum relative difference between flow-normalized flux estimated in a single year from any of the 10 design guideline subsamples and values estimated in the corresponding year from baseline data was smallest for dissolved inorganic nitrogen (median of 8 stations = 6 percent of baseline estimate), but more appreciable for total phosphorus and sediment (medians of 22 and 32 percent, respectively). The maximum relative difference between flow-normalized flux estimated from from the 10 heterogeneous subsamples and values estimated in the corresponding year from baseline data was more pronounced, with medians for 8 stations of 15, 30, and 53 percent of the corresponding baseline estimates for dissolved inorganic nitrogen, total phosphorus, and sediment, respectively. The worst-case maximum relative differences between flow-normalize flux estimated in a single year from the 10 heterogeneous subsamples and values estimated in the corresponding year from baseline data were 25 percent for dissolved inorganic nitrogen, 37 percent for total phosphorus, and 250 percent for sediment. The results for the heterogeneous subsamples indicate that changes in storm sampling frequency can result in appreciable distortion of estimated trends in flow-normalized flux, especially for total phosphorus and sediment. Trend lines estimated from heterogeneous subsamples tended to converge with the trend lines estimated from baseline data after 2003. In contrast, 2003–12 trends based on subsamples truncated by discarding all data prior to the induced heterogeneity in 2003 showed appreciable biases and differences in slope, relative to the corresponding 2003–12 segment of the trend computed from the design guideline subsamples. Overall, the results indicate that for particulate constituents, load and trend estimates computed using long-term records recently converted to CBNTN design guideline sampling protocols will be most reliable if the trend is computed using the entire record, but reported only for the period that design guideline sampling protocols were followed. Inconsistencies related to changing laboratory methods were also examined via two manipulative experiments. In the first experiment, increasing and decreasing “stair-step” patterns of changes in censoring level, overall representing a factor-of-five change in the laboratory reporting limit, were artificially imposed on a 27-year record with no censoring and a period-of-record concentration trend of –68.4 percent. Trends estimated on the basis of the manipulated records were broadly similar to the original trend (–63.6 percent for decreasing censoring levels and –70.3 percent for increasing censoring levels), lending a degree of confidence that the survival regression routines upon which WRTDS is based are generally robust to data censoring. The second experiment considered an abrupt disappearance of low-concentration observations of total phosphorus, associated with a laboratory method change and not reflected through censoring, near the middle of a 28-year record. By process of elimination, an upward shift in the estimated flow-normalize concentration trend line around the same time was identified as a likely artifact resulting from the laboratory method change, although a contemporaneous change in watershed processes cannot be ruled out. Decisions as to how to treat records with potential sampling protocol or laboratory methods-related artifacts should be made on a case-by-case basis, and trend results should be appropriately qualified.

Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia↗

USGS2010

Trends in the quality of water in New Jersey streams, water years 1998-2007

Trends were determined in flow-adjusted values of selected water-quality characteristics measured year-round during water years 1998-2007 (October 1, 1997, through September 30, 2007) at 70 stations on New Jersey streams. Water-quality characteristics included in the analysis are dissolved oxygen, pH, total dissolved solids, total phosphorus, total organic nitrogen plus ammonia, and dissolved nitrate plus nitrite. In addition, trend tests also were conducted on measurements of dissolved oxygen made only during the growing season, April to September. Nearly all the water-quality data analyzed were collected by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection and the U.S. Geological Survey as part of the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection Ambient Surface-Water Quality Monitoring Network. Monotonic trends in flow-adjusted values of water quality were determined by use of procedures in the ESTREND computer program. A 0.05 level of significance was selected to indicate a trend. Results of tests were not reported if there were an insufficient number of measurements or insufficient number of detected concentrations, or if the results of the tests were affected by a change in data-collection methods. Trends in values of dissolved oxygen, pH, and total dissolved solids were identified using the Seasonal Kendall test. Trends or no trends in year-round concentrations of dissolved oxygen were determined for 66 stations; decreases at 4 stations and increases at 0 stations were identified. Trends or no trends in growing-season concentrations of dissolved oxygen were determined for 65 stations; decreases at 4 stations and increases at 4 stations were identified. Tests of pH values determined trends or no trends at 26 stations; decreases at 2 stations and increases at 3 stations were identified. Trends or no trends in total dissolved solids were reported for all 70 stations; decreases at 0 stations and increases at 24 stations were identified. Trends in total phosphorus, total organic nitrogen plus ammonia, and dissolved nitrate plus nitrite were identified by use of Tobit regression. Two sets of trend tests were conducted-one set with all measurements and a second set with all measurements except the most extreme outlier if one could be identified. The result of the test with all measurements is reported if the results of the two tests are equivalent. The result of the test without the outlier is reported if the results of the two tests are not equivalent. Trends or no trends in total phosphorus were determined for 69 stations. Decreases at 12 stations and increases at 5 stations were identified. Of the five stations on the Delaware River included in this study, decreases in concentration were identified at four. Trends or no trends in total organic nitrogen plus ammonia were determined for 69 stations. Decreases and increases in concentrations were identified at six and nine stations, respectively. Trends or no trends in dissolved nitrate plus nitrite were determined for 66 stations. Decreases and increases in concentration were identified at 4 and 19 stations, respectively.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2009

Trends in Streamflow and Nutrient and Suspended-Sediment Concentrations and Loads in the Upper Mississippi, Ohio, Red, and Great Lakes River Basins, 1975-2004

Many actions have been taken to reduce nutrient and suspended-sediment concentrations and the amount of nutrients and sediment transported in streams as a result of the Clean Water Act and subsequent regulations. This report assesses how nutrient and suspended-sediment concentrations and loads in selected streams have changed during recent years to determine if these actions have been successful. Flow-adjusted and overall trends in concentrations and trends in loads from 1993 to 2004 were computed for total nitrogen, dissolved ammonia, total organic nitrogen plus ammonia, dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, total phosphorus, dissolved phosphorus, total suspended material (total suspended solids or suspended sediment), and total suspended sediment for 49 sites in the Upper Mississippi, Ohio, Red, and Great Lakes Basins. Changes in total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total suspended-material loads were examined from 1975 to 2003 at six sites to provide a longer term context for the data examined from 1993 to 2004. Flow-adjusted trends in total nitrogen concentrations at 19 of 24 sites showed tendency toward increasing concentrations, and overall trends in total nitrogen concentrations at 16 of the 24 sites showed a general tendency toward increasing concentrations. The trends in these flow-adjusted total nitrogen concentrations are related to the changes in fertilizer nitrogen applications. Flow-adjusted trends in dissolved ammonia concentrations from 1993 to 2004 showed a widespread tendency toward decreasing concentrations. The widespread, downward trends in dissolved ammonia concentrations indicate that some of the ammonia reduction goals of the Clean Water Act are being met. Flow-adjusted and overall trends in total organic plus ammonia nitrogen concentrations from 1993 to 2004 did not show a distinct spatial pattern. Flow-adjusted and overall trends in dissolved nitrite plus nitrate concentrations from 1993 to 2004 also did not show a distinct spatial pattern. Flow-adjusted trends in total phosphorus concentrations were upward at 24 of 40 sites. Overall trends in total phosphorus concentrations were mixed and showed no spatial pattern. Flow-adjusted and overall trends in dissolved phosphorus concentrations were consistently downward at all of the sites in the eastern part of the basins studied. The reduction in phosphorus fertilizer use and manure production east of the Mississippi River could explain most of the observed trends in dissolved phosphorus. Flow-adjusted trends in total suspended-material concentrations showed distinct spatial patterns of increasing tendencies throughout the western part of the basins studied and in Illinois and decreasing concentrations throughout most of Wisconsin, Iowa, and in the eastern part of the basins studied. Flow-adjusted trends in total phosphorus were strongly related to the flow-adjusted trends in suspended materials. The trends in the flow-adjusted suspended-sediment concentrations from 1993 to 2004 resembled those for suspended materials. The long-term, nonmonotonic trends in total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended-material loads for 1975 to 2003 were described by local regression, LOESS, smoothing for six sites. The statistical significance of those trends cannot be determined; however, the long-term changes found for annual streamflow and load data indicate that the monotonic trends from 1993 to 2004 should not be extrapolated backward in time.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2014

Trends in major-ion constituents and properties for selected sampling sites in the Tongue and Powder River watersheds, Montana and Wyoming, based on data collected during water years 1980-2010

The primary purpose of this report is to present information relating to flow-adjusted temporal trends in major-ion constituents and properties for 16 sampling sites in the Tongue and Powder River watersheds based on data collected during 1980–2010. In association with this primary purpose, the report presents background information on major-ion characteristics (including specific conductance, calcium, magnesium, potassium, sodium adsorption ratio, sodium, alkalinity, chloride, fluoride, dissolved sulfate, and dissolved solids) of the sampling sites and coal-bed methane (CBM) produced water (groundwater pumped from coal seams) in the site watersheds, trend analysis methods, streamflow conditions, and factors that affect trend results. The Tongue and Powder River watersheds overlie the Powder River structural basin (PRB) in northeastern Wyoming and southeastern Montana. Limited extraction of coal-bed methane (CBM) from the PRB began in the early 1990’s, and increased dramatically during the late 1990’s and early 2000’s. CBM-extraction activities produce discharges of water with high concentrations of dissolved solids (particularly sodium and bicarbonate ions) relative to most stream water in the Tongue and Powder River watersheds. Water-quality of CBM produced water is of concern because of potential effects of sodium on agricultural soils and potential effects of bicarbonate on aquatic biota. Two parametric trend-analysis methods were used in this study: the time-series model (TSM) and ordinary least squares regression (OLS) on time, streamflow, and season. The TSM was used to analyze trends for 11 of the 16 study sites. For five sites, data requirements of the TSM were not met and OLS was used to analyze trends. Two primary 10-year trend-analysis periods were selected. Trend-analysis period 1 (water years 1986–95; hereinafter referred to as period 1) was selected to represent variability in major-ion concentrations in the Tongue and Powder River watersheds before potential effects of CBM-extraction activities. Trend analysis period 2 (water years 2001–10; hereinafter referred to as period 2) was selected because it encompassed substantial CBM-extraction activities and therefore might indicate potential effects of CBM-extraction activities on water quality of receiving streams in the Tongue and Powder River watersheds. For sites that did not satisfy data requirements for the TSM, OLS was used to analyze trends for period 2 (if complete data were available) or a 6-year period (2005–10). Flow-rate characteristics of CBM-produced water were estimated to allow general comparisons with streamflow characteristics of the sampling sites. The information on flow-rate characteristics of CBM-produced water in relation to streamflow does not account for effects of disposal, treatment, or other remediation activities on the potential quantitative effects of CBM-produced water on receiving streams. In many places, CBM-produced water is discharged into impoundments or channels in upper reaches of tributary watersheds where water infiltrates and does not directly contribute to streamflow. For Tongue River at State line (site 4) mean annual pumping rate of CBM-produced water during water years 2001–10 (hereinafter referred to as mean CBM pumping rate) was 6 percent of the mean of annual median streamflows during water years 2001–10 (hereinafter referred to as 2001–10 median streamflow). For main-stem Tongue River sites 5, 7, and 10, mean CBM pumping rate was 8–12 percent of 2001–10 median streamflow. For main-stem Powder River sites (sites 12, 13, and 16), mean CBM pumping rates were 26, 28, and 34 percent of 2001–10 median streamflows, respectively. For main-stem Tongue River sites analyzed by using the TSM and downstream from substantial CBM-extraction activities [Tongue River at State line (site 4), Tongue River at Tongue River Dam (site 5), Tongue River at Birney Day School (site 7), and Tongue River at Miles City (site 10)], generally small significant or nonsignificant decreases in most constituents are indicated for period 1. For period 2 for these sites, the TSM trend results do not allow confident conclusions concerning detection of effects of CBM-extraction activities on stream water quality. Detection of significant trends in major-ion constituents and properties for period 2 generally was infrequent, and direction, magnitudes, and significance of fitted trends were not strongly consistent with relative differences in water quality between stream water and CBM-produced water. The TSM indicated significant or generally large magnitude increases in median values of sodium adsorption ratio (SAR), sodium, and alkalinity for period 2 for sites 5 and 7, which might indicate potential effects of CBM-extraction activities on stream water. However, other factors, including operations of Tongue River Reservoir, irrigation activities, contributions of saline groundwater, and operations of the Decker coal mine, confound confident determination of causes of detected significant trends for sites 5 and 7. For all mainstem Tongue River sites, trends for period 2 generally are within ranges of those for period 1 before substantial CBM-extraction activities. For main-stem Powder River sites analyzed by using the TSM [Powder River at Sussex (site 11), Powder River at Arvada (site 12), Powder River at Moorhead (site 13), and Powder River near Locate (site 16)], significant or generally large magnitude decreases in median values of SAR, sodium, estimated alkalinity, chloride, fluoride, specific conductance, and dissolved solids are indicated for period 1. Patterns in trend results for period 1 for main-stem Powder River sites are consistent with effects of Salt Creek oil-brine reinjection that started in 1990. Trend results for all main-stem Powder River sites downstream from substantial CBM-extraction activities (sites 12, 13, and 16) indicate evidence of potential effects of CBM-extraction activities on stream water quality, although evidence is stronger for sites 12 and 13 than for site 16. Evidence in support of potential CBM effects includes significant increases in median values of SAR, sodium, and estimated alkalinity for period 2 for sites 12, 13, and 16 that are consistent with relative differences between stream water and CBM-produced water. Significant increases in median values of these constituents for period 2 are not indicated for Powder River at Sussex (site 11) upstream from substantial CBM-extraction activities. In interpreting the trend results, it is notable that the fitted trends evaluate changes in median concentrations and also notable that changes in median concentrations that might be attributed to CBM-extraction activities probably are more strongly evident during low to median streamflow conditions than during mean to high streamflow conditions. This observation is relevant in assessing trend results in relation to specific water-quality concerns, including effects of water-quality changes on irrigators and effects on stream biota and ecology.

Montana;Wyoming↗

USGS2021

General water-quality conditions, long-term trends, and network analysis at selected sites within the Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network in Missouri, water years 1993–2017

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources, collects data pertaining to the surface-water resources of Missouri. Established in 1964, the Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network (AWQMN) consisted of 69 sites in 2017. Two additional sites from the National Water-Quality Program are included with the AWQMN sites for the analyses in this report. The sites are sampled typically from 2 to 12 times per year for physical properties, total suspended solids, nutrients, fecal indicator bacteria, and trace elements. The period of analysis for this study was from 1993 through 2017 and data analysis included 71 sites and 15 water-quality constituents plus discharge. Data analysis involved retrieving the data, conditioning the data for analysis, analyzing the data for trends, and analyzing the monitoring network to determine if potential data gaps or data redundancies exist in the network. Results from these analyses can be used to help manage the monitoring network into the future. Water-quality data were analyzed using several software packages to provide graphical and statistical information for interpretation of trends in the data at selected sites. Discharge data at selected sites were analyzed to determine the general trends during the analysis period and how the water-quality samples represented the range of daily mean discharges at each site. Water-quality data also were analyzed at selected sites to determine the relative sensitivity of selected sites and constituents to changes in data collection frequency. Trend analysis at selected sites using a simulated reduction in sampling frequency was completed to compare to trends obtained using monthly data to determine the potential degradation in the ability of determining trends from a reduced sampling frequency. The viability of using estimated discharge to evaluate long-term trends for sites with no continuous discharge was investigated. Data from sites were statistically compared in groups to determine the relative similarity (or difference) between sites for each water-quality constituent to identify potentially redundant sites in the monitoring network. Discharge-weighted long-term trends during 1993 through 2017 were analyzed for 15 water-quality constituents at 58 sites and results indicated there were significant single- or two-period trends in about 17 percent of the analyses. Some trends indicated improvement and some trends indicated deterioration of the general water quality at some sites in the AWQMN. No trend was indicated in about 31 percent of the analyses. The constituents pH, specific conductance, and total phosphorus showed the most frequent significant trends, and each of the 15 constituents examined had a significant trend at one or more sites. A total of 42 sites indicated at least 1 constituent with a significant single- or two-period trend, and 10 sites indicated 6 or more significant trends. Potential data gaps identified for computing discharge-weighted long-term trends in the monitoring network included the lack of collection of continuous discharge at 23 sites, insufficient sampling frequency for some constituents (dissolved chloride and total and dissolved lead and zinc) at some sites, insufficient temporal sample distribution (lack of at least one sample in each season per year) at some sites, and insufficient sampling frequency for some highly censored constituents (nutrients and total and dissolved lead and zinc) at some sites. Potential data gaps based on site spatial distribution were identified in 7 basins greater than 800 square miles. Potential site redundancies were identified in 4 basins that had an area greater than 500 square miles with a site density greater than 2 sites per 1,000 square miles. Potential site redundancies also were identified for nine site pairs by observing statistical similarities in the constituent data distributions. Sampling frequency was investigated to determine if reducing the sampling frequency of select constituents could provide a statistically similar data distribution. At 28 of 71 sites, 11 constituents had sufficient data collection frequency (approximately monthly) to allow for the creation of simulated datasets of various reduced data collection frequency. For the selected monitoring network sites analyzed, the data distribution of a simulated sampling frequency of four times per year or greater, roughly evenly distributed over the year, was not significantly different than the data distribution of the original monthly sampling frequency. Sites analyzed using varying simulated sampling frequencies tended to be more sensitive to sampling frequency changes if they were in basins classified as large or very large size and tended to be least sensitive in basins classified as small and medium size in the Ozark Plateaus Province. Simulated reduced frequency sampling analysis indicated that the constituents and measurements most sensitive to changes in sampling frequencies were water temperature, dissolved oxygen, discharge, and dissolved nitrate, and least sensitive were pH, total suspended solids, dissolved phosphorus, and total phosphorus. Discharge-weighted long-term trend analysis was repeated at 22 sites for 11 constituents using a simulated quarterly sampling frequency, and matched about 46 percent of the significant single-period trends identified using monthly data and about 65 percent of the analyses that indicated no trend using the monthly data.

Missouri↗

USGS2002

Analysis of nitrate (NO3-N) concentration trends in 25 ground-water-quality management areas, Idaho, 1961-2001

In Idaho, drinking-water supplies are pumped from relatively shallow ground-water zones where water quality has great potential for degradation by land- and water-use activities. One indicator of water quality, and one of the most widespread contaminants in Idaho ground water related to land and water uses, is dissolved nitrate. In December 2000, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Idaho Department of Environmental Quality, began a study to compile and assess nitrate data for ground water in 25 ground-water-quality management areas in Idaho. The primary objective of the study was to determine whether statistically significant trends in ground-water concentrations were discernible. Data included ground-water analyses but not analyses of water from springs, drains, or thermal water sources. A total of 8,465 nitrate analyses were compiled from 2,931 wells in the 25 priority areas; analyses dates ranged from June 1961 to February 2001. A time-period comparison was used to assess general trends in nitrate concentrations within individual priority areas. A time-series comparison was used to assess trends in nitrate concentrations from selected wells in each priority area. In time-period assessments, general trends in an area were evaluated by compiling nitrate data for selected time intervals to determine whether the population distributions were significantly different between one period and another. Data within each priority area were sorted into decades— 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s—for long-term trend assessment. The 1990s data also were divided into sets of selected years corresponding to Statewide Ambient Ground-Water Quality Program sampling cycles—1991 through 1994, 1995 through 1998, and a partial cycle, 1999 through 2000—for shortterm trend assessment. Data were analyzed by summary statistics, boxplots, and the Mann- Whitney statistical test. Long-term increasing trends in nitrate concentrations were evident for 6 of 25 priority areas, and long-term decreasing trends were evident for 4 of 25 areas. Short-term increasing trends were evident for 7 of 25 areas, and a short-term decreasing trend was evident for only 1 area. No long-term nitrate trends were evident for 7 of 25 areas, and no shortterm trends were evident for 15 of 25 areas. Data were insufficient for long-term trend assessment in 8 areas and for short-term assessment in 2 areas. Time-series trend analyses were conducted on data from wells with 7 or more nitrate analyses and longest periods of record, at least 10 years between oldest and most recent analyses. Because long-term records were available for so few wells and well construction data were not available for several of these wells, time-series analyses were not helpful to the nitrate trend assessment study. Trend results may be strongly affected by well construction, hydrogeologic environments, and changes in density and areal distribution of wells and analyses. The utility of nitrate trend assessments in priority areas would be improved by more consistent and specific well location descriptions between agencies; well construction and major water-yielding zone information to accompany the water-quality data for each well; and addition of historical nitrate data to data bases, particularly analyses prior to about 1990. Investigations of the possible effects of changing priority area boundaries and time periods on both long-term and short-term trend assessments are needed. Addition of these kinds of information would allow assessment of trends associated with hydrology and geology of each area and would provide a much stronger basis for trend assessment than currently possible.

Idaho↗

USGS2003

Water-quality trend analysis and sampling design for streams in North Dakota, 1971-2000

This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota Department of Health, to analyze historical water-quality trends in selected dissolved major ions, nutrients, and dissolved trace metals for 10 streams in southwestern and eastern North Dakota and to develop an efficient sampling design to monitor future water-quality trends. A time-series model for daily streamflow and constituent concentration was used to identify significant concentration trends, separate natural hydroclimatic variability in concentration from variability that could have resulted from anthropogenic causes, and evaluate various sampling designs to monitor future water-quality trends. The interannual variability in concentration as a result of variability in streamflow, referred to as the annual concentration anomaly, generally was high for all constituents and streams used in the trend analysis and was particularly sensitive to the severe drought that occurred in the late 1980's and the very wet period that began in 1993 and has persisted to the present (2002). Although climatic conditions were similar across North Dakota during the trend-analysis period (1971-2000), significant differences occurred in the annual concentration anomalies from constituent to constituent and location to location, especially during the drought and the wet period. Numerous trends were detected in the historical constituent concentrations after the annual concentration anomalies were removed. The trends within each of the constituent groups (major ions, nutrients, and trace metals) showed general agreement among the streams. For most locations, the largest dissolved major-ion concentrations occurred during the late 1970's and concentrations in the mid- to late 1990's were smaller than concentrations during the late 1970's. However, the largest concentrations for three of the Missouri River tributaries and one of the Red River of the North tributaries occurred during the mid- to late 1990's. Concentration trends for total ammonia plus organic nitrogen showed close agreement among the streams for which that constituent was evaluated. The largest concentrations occurred during the early 1980's, and the smallest concentrations occurred during the early 1990's. Nutrient data were not available for the early 1970's or late 1990's. Although a detailed analysis of the causes of the trends was beyond the scope of this report, a preliminary analysis of cropland, livestock-inventory, and oil-production data for 1971-2000 indicated the concentration trends may be related to the livestock-inventory and oil-production activities in the basins. Dissolved iron and manganese concentrations for the southwestern North Dakota streams generally remained stable during 1971-2000. However, many of the recorded concentrations for those streams were less than the detection limit, and trends that were masked by censoring may have occurred. Several significant trends were detected in dissolved iron and manganese concentrations for the eastern North Dakota streams. Concentrations for those streams either remained stable or increased during most of the 1970's and then decreased rapidly for about 2 years beginning in the late 1970's. The concentrations were relatively stable from the early 1980's to 2000 except at two locations where dissolved iron concentrations increased during the early 1990's. The most efficient overall sampling designs for the detection of annual trends (that is, trends that occur uniformly during the entire year) consisted of balanced designs in which the sampling dates and the number of samples collected remained fixed from year to year and in which the samples were collected throughout the year rather than in a short timespan. The best overall design for the detection of annual trends consisted of three samples per year, with samples collected near the beginning of December, April, and August. That design had acceptable sensitivity for the detection of trends in most constituents at all locations. Little improvement in sensitivity was achieved by collecting more than three samples per year. The sampling designs that were first evaluated for annual trends also were evaluated with regard to their sensitivity to detect seasonal trends that occurred during three seasons--April through August, August through December, and December through April. Design results indicated that an average of one extra sample per station per year resulted in an efficient design for detecting seasonal trends. However, allocation of the extra samples varied depending on the station, month, and constituent group (major ions, nutrients, and trace metals).

North Dakota↗

USGS2006

Water-quality trend analysis and sampling design for the Devils Lake Basin, North Dakota, January 1965 through September 2003

This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission, the Devils Lake Basin Joint Water Resource Board, and the Red River Joint Water Resource District, to analyze historical water-quality trends in three dissolved major ions, three nutrients, and one dissolved trace element for eight stations in the Devils Lake Basin in North Dakota and to develop an efficient sampling design to monitor the future trends. A multiple-regression model was used to detect and remove streamflow-related variability in constituent concentrations. To separate the natural variability in concentration as a result of variability in streamflow from the variability in concentration as a result of other factors, the base-10 logarithm of daily streamflow was divided into four components-a 5-year streamflow anomaly, an annual streamflow anomaly, a seasonal streamflow anomaly, and a daily streamflow anomaly. The constituent concentrations then were adjusted for streamflow-related variability by removing the 5-year, annual, seasonal, and daily variability. Constituents used for the water-quality trend analysis were evaluated for a step trend to examine the effect of Channel A on water quality in the basin and a linear trend to detect gradual changes with time from January 1980 through September 2003. The fitted upward linear trends for dissolved calcium concentrations during 1980-2003 for two stations were significant. The fitted step trends for dissolved sulfate concentrations for three stations were positive and similar in magnitude. Of the three upward trends, one was significant. The fitted step trends for dissolved chloride concentrations were positive but insignificant. The fitted linear trends for the upstream stations were small and insignificant, but three of the downward trends that occurred during 1980-2003 for the remaining stations were significant. The fitted upward linear trends for dissolved nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen concentrations during 1987-2003 for two stations were significant. However, concentrations during recent years appear to be lower than those for the 1970s and early 1980s but higher than those for the late 1980s and early 1990s. The fitted downward linear trend for dissolved ammonia concentrations for one station was significant. The fitted linear trends for total phosphorus concentrations for two stations were significant. Upward trends for total phosphorus concentrations occurred from the late 1980s to 2003 for most stations, but a small and insignificant downward trend occurred for one station. Continued monitoring will be needed to determine if the recent trend toward higher dissolved nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations continues in the future. For continued monitoring of water-quality trends in the upper Devils Lake Basin, an efficient sampling design consists of five major-ion, nutrient, and trace-element samples per year at three existing stream stations and at three existing lake stations. This sampling design requires the collection of 15 stream samples and 15 lake samples per year rather than 16 stream samples and 20 lake samples per year as in the 1992-2003 program. Thus, the design would result in a program that is less costly and more efficient than the 1992-2003 program but that still would provide the data needed to monitor water-quality trends in the Devils Lake Basin.

North Dakota↗

USGS2001

Trends in peak flows of selected streams in Kansas

The possibility of a systematic change in flood potential led to an investigation of trends in the magnitude of annual peak flows in Kansas. Efficient design of highway bridges and other flood-plain structures depends on accurate understanding of flood characteristics. The Kendall's tau test was used to identify trends at 40 stream-gaging stations during the 40-year period 1958–97. Records from 13 (32 percent) of the stations showed significant trends at the 95-percent confidence level. Only three of the records (8 percent) analyzed had increasing trends, whereas 10 records (25 percent) had decreasing trends, all of which were for stations located in the western one-half of the State. An analysis of flow volume using mean annual discharge at 29 stations in Kansas resulted in 6 stations (21 percent) with significant trends in flow volumes. All six trends were decreasing and occurred in the western one-half of the State. The Kendall's tau test also was used to identify peak-flow trends over the entire period of record for 54 stream-gaging stations in Kansas. Of the 23 records (43 percent) showing significant trends, 16 (30 percent) were decreasing, and 7 (13 percent) were increasing. The trend test then was applied to 30-year periods moving in 5-year increments to identify time periods within each station record when trends were occurring. Systematic changes in precipitation patterns and long-term declines in ground-water levels in some stream basins may be contributing to peak-flow trends. To help explain the cause of the streamflow trends, the Kendall's tau test was applied to total annual precipitation and ground-water levels in Kansas. In western Kansas, the lack of precipitation and presence of decreasing trends in ground-water levels indicated that declining water tables are contributing to decreasing trends in peak streamflow. Declining water tables are caused by ground-water withdrawals and other factors such as construction of ponds and terraces. Peak-flow records containing trends introduce statistical error into flood-frequency analysis. To examine the effect of trends on flood-frequency analysis, statistically significant trends were added systematically to four nontrending station records. Flood magnitudes estimated on the basis of each data series were compared. The added trends resulted in changes in the 100-year flood magnitudes of as much as 70 percent.

Kansas↗

USGS2012

Nutrient concentrations and loads in the northeastern United States - Status and trends, 1975-2003

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA) began regional studies in 2003 to synthesize information on nutrient concentrations, trends, stream loads, and sources. In the northeastern United States, a study area that extends from Maine to central Virginia, nutrient data were evaluated for 130 USGS water-quality monitoring stations. Nutrient data were analyzed for trends in flow-adjusted concentrations, modeled instream (non-flow-adjusted) concentrations, and stream loads for 32 stations with 22 to 29 years of water-quality and daily mean streamflow record during 1975-2003 (termed the long-term period), and for 46 stations during 1993-2003 (termed the recent period), by using a coupled statistical model of streamflow and water quality developed by the USGS. Recent trends in flow-adjusted concentrations of one or more nutrients also were analyzed for 90 stations by using Tobit regression. Annual stream nutrient loads were estimated, and annual nutrient yields were calculated, for 47 stations for the long-term and recent periods, and for 37 additional stations that did not have a complete streamflow and water-quality record for 1993-2003. Nutrient yield information was incorporated for 9 drainage basins evaluated in a national NAWQA study, for a total of 93 stations evaluated for nutrient yields. Long-term downward trends in flow-adjusted concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus (18 and 19 of 32 stations, respectively) indicate regional improvements in nutrient-related water-quality conditions. Most of the recent trends detected for total phosphorus were upward (17 of 83 stations), indicating possible reversals to the long-term improvements. Concentrations of nutrients in many streams persist at levels that are likely to affect aquatic habitat adversely and promote freshwater or coastal eutrophication. Recent trends for modeled instream concentrations, and modeled reference concentrations, were evaluated relative to ecoregion-based nutrient criteria proposed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Instream concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus persist at levels higher than proposed criteria at more than one-third and about one-half, respectively, of the 46 stations analyzed. Long-term trends in nutrient loads were primarily downward, with downward trends in total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads detected at 12 and 17 of 32 stations, respectively. Upward trends were rare, with one upward trend for total nitrogen loads and none for total phosphorus. Trends in loads of nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen included 7 upward and 8 downward trends among 32 stations. Downward trends in loads of ammonia nitrogen and total Kjeldahl nitrogen were detected at all six stations evaluated. Long-term downward trends detected in four of the five largest drainage basins evaluated include: total nitrogen loads for the Connecticut, Delaware, and James Rivers; total Kjeldahl nitrogen and ammonia nitrogen loads for the Susquehanna River; ammonia nitrogen and nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen loads for the James River; and total phosphorus loads for the Connecticut and Delaware Rivers. No trends in load were detected for the Potomac River. Nutrient yields were evaluated relative to the extent of land development in 93 drainage basins. The undeveloped land-use category included forested drainage basins with undeveloped land ranging from 75 to 100 percent of basin area. Median total nitrogen yields for the 27 undeveloped drainage basins evaluated, including 9 basins evaluated in a national NAWQA study, ranged from 290 to 4,800 pounds per square mile per year (lb/mi 2 /yr). Total nitrogen yields even in the most pristine drainage basins may be elevated relative to natural conditions, because of high rates of atmospheric deposition of nitrogen in parts of the northeastern United States. Median total phosphorus yields ranged from 12 to 330 lb/mi 2 /yr for the 26 undeveloped basins evaluated. The undeveloped category includes some large drainage basins with point-source discharges and small percentages of developed land; in these basins, streamflow from undeveloped headwater areas dilutes streamflow in more urbanized reaches, and dampens but does not eliminate the point-source "signal" of higher nutrient loads. Median total nitrogen yields generally do not exceed 1,700 lb/mi 2 /yr, and median total phosphorus yields generally do not exceed 100 lb/mi 2 /yr, in the drainage basins that are least affected by human land-use and waste-disposal practices. Agricultural and urban land use has increased nutrient yields substantially relative to undeveloped drainage basins. Median total nitrogen yields for 24 agricultural basins ranged from 1,700 to 26,000 lb/mi 2 /yr, and median total phosphorus yields ranged from 94 to 1,000 lb/mi 2 /yr. The maximum estimated total nitrogen and total phosphorus yields, 32,000 and 16,000 lb/mi 2 /yr, respectively, for all stations in the region were in small (less than 50 square miles (mi 2 )) agricultural drainage basins. Median total nitrogen yields ranged from 1,400 to 17,000 lb/mi 2 /yr in 26 urbanized drainage basins, and median total phosphorus yields ranged from 43 to 1,900 lb/mi 2 /yr. Urbanized drainage basins with the highest nutrient yields are generally small (less than 300 mi2) and are drained by streams that receive major point-source discharges. Instream nutrient loads were evaluated relative to loads from point-source discharges in four drainage basins: the Quinebaug River Basin in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island; the Raritan River Basin in New Jersey; the Patuxent River Basin in Maryland; and the James River Basin in Virginia. Long-term downward trends in nutrient loads, coupled with similar trends in flow-adjusted nutrient concentrations, indicate long-term reductions in the delivery of most nutrients to these streams. However, the absence of recent downward trends in load for most nutrients, coupled with instream concentrations that exceed proposed nutrient criteria in several of these waste-receiving streams, indicates that challenges remain in reducing delivery of nutrients to streams from point sources. During dry years, the total nutrient load from point sources in some of the drainage basins approached or equaled the nutrient load transported by the stream.

Connecticut;Delaware;Maine;Maryl;Massachusetts;New↗

USGS2012

Comparison of two regression-based approaches for determining nutrient and sediment fluxes and trends in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Nutrient and sediment fluxes and changes in fluxes over time are key indicators that water resource managers can use to assess the progress being made in improving the structure and function of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. The U.S. Geological Survey collects annual nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) and sediment flux data and computes trends that describe the extent to which water-quality conditions are changing within the major Chesapeake Bay tributaries. Two regression-based approaches were compared for estimating annual nutrient and sediment fluxes and for characterizing how these annual fluxes are changing over time. The two regression models compared are the traditionally used ESTIMATOR and the newly developed Weighted Regression on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS). The model comparison focused on answering three questions: (1) What are the differences between the functional form and construction of each model? (2) Which model produces estimates of flux with the greatest accuracy and least amount of bias? (3) How different would the historical estimates of annual flux be if WRTDS had been used instead of ESTIMATOR? One additional point of comparison between the two models is how each model determines trends in annual flux once the year-to-year variations in discharge have been determined. All comparisons were made using total nitrogen, nitrate, total phosphorus, orthophosphorus, and suspended-sediment concentration data collected at the nine U.S. Geological Survey River Input Monitoring stations located on the Susquehanna, Potomac, James, Rappahannock, Appomattox, Pamunkey, Mattaponi, Patuxent, and Choptank Rivers in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Two model characteristics that uniquely distinguish ESTIMATOR and WRTDS are the fundamental model form and the determination of model coefficients. ESTIMATOR and WRTDS both predict water-quality constituent concentration by developing a linear relation between the natural logarithm of observed constituent concentration and three explanatory variables—the natural log of discharge, time, and season. ESTIMATOR uses two additional explanatory variables—the square of the log of discharge and time-squared. Both models determine coefficients for variables for a series of estimation windows. ESTIMATOR establishes variable coefficients for a series of 9-year moving windows; all observed constituent concentration data within the 9-year window are used to establish each coefficient. Conversely, WRTDS establishes variable coefficients for each combination of discharge and time using only observed concentration data that are similar in time, season, and discharge to the day being estimated. As a result of these distinguishing characteristics, ESTIMATOR reproduces concentration-discharge relations that are closely approximated by a quadratic or linear function with respect to both the log of discharge and time. Conversely, the linear model form of WRTDS coupled with extensive model windowing for each combination of discharge and time allows WRTDS to reproduce observed concentration-discharge relations that are more sinuous in form. Another distinction between ESTIMATOR and WRTDS is the reporting of uncertainty associated with the model estimates of flux and trend. ESTIMATOR quantifies the standard error of prediction associated with the determination of flux and trends. The standard error of prediction enables the determination of the 95-percent confidence intervals for flux and trend as well as the ability to test whether the reported trend is significantly different from zero (where zero equals no trend). Conversely, WRTDS is unable to propagate error through the many (over 5,000) models for unique combinations of flow and time to determine a total standard error. As a result, WRTDS flux estimates are not reported with confidence intervals and a level of significance is not determined for flow-normalized fluxes. The differences between ESTIMATOR and WRTDS, with regard to model form and determination of model coefficients, have an influence on the determination of nutrient and sediment fluxes and associated changes in flux over time as a result of management activities. The comparison between the model estimates of flux and trend was made for combinations of five water-quality constituents at nine River Input Monitoring stations. The major findings with regard to nutrient and sediment fluxes are as follows: (1)WRTDS produced estimates of flux for all combinations that were more accurate, based on reduction in root mean squared error, than flux estimates from ESTIMATOR; (2) for 67 percent of the combinations, WRTDS and ESTIMATOR both produced estimates of flux that were minimally biased compared to observed fluxes(flux bias = tendency to over or underpredict flux observations); however, for 33 percent of the combinations, WRTDS produced estimates of flux that were considerably less biased (by at least 10 percent) than flux estimates from ESTIMATOR; (3) the average percent difference in annual fluxes generated by ESTIMATOR and WRTDS was less than 10 percent at 80 percent of the combinations; and (4) the greatest differences related to flux bias and annual fluxes all occurred for combinations where the pattern in observed concentration-discharge relation was sinuous (two points of inflection) rather than linear or quadratic (zero or one point of inflection). The major findings with regard to trends are as follows: (1) both models produce water-quality trends that have factored in the year-to-year variations in flow; (2) trends in water-quality condition are represented by ESTIMATOR as a trend in flow-adjusted concentration and by WRTDS as a flow normalized flux; (3) for 67 percent of the combinations with trend estimates, the WRTDS trends in flow-normalized flux are in the same direction and magnitude to the ESTIMATOR trends in flow-adjusted concentration, and at the remaining 33 percent the differences in trend magnitude and direction are related to fundamental differences between concentration and flux; and (4) the majority (85 percent) of the total nitrogen, nitrate, and orthophosphorus combinations exhibited long-term (1985 to 2010) trends in WRTDS flow-normalized flux that indicate improvement or reduction in associated flux and the majority (83 percent) of the total phosphorus (from 1985 to 2010) and suspended sediment (from 2001 to 2010) combinations exhibited trends in WRTDS flow-normalized flux that indicate degradation or increases in the flux delivered.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗

USGS2015

Water-quality trends for selected sites in the Boulder River and Tenmile Creek watersheds, Montana, based on data collected during water years 1997-2013

In the Boulder River and Tenmile Creek watersheds in southwestern Montana, there was intensive mining during a 40-year period after the discovery of gold in the early 1860s. Potential effects from the historic mining activities include acid-mine drainage and elevated concentrations of potentially toxic trace elements from mining remnants such as waste rock and tailing piles. In support of remediation efforts, water-quality monitoring by the U.S. Geological Survey began in 1997 in the Boulder River and Tenmile Creek watersheds and has continued to present (2014). The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Forest Service, investigated temporal trends in water quality at 13 sites, including 2 adit (or mine entrance) sites and 11 stream sites. The primary purpose of this report is to present results of trend analysis of specific conductance, selected trace-elements (cadmium, copper, lead, zinc, and arsenic), and suspended sediment for the 13 sites. Trend results for most stream sites in the Boulder River watershed for water years 2000–13 (water year is the 12-month period from October 1 through September 30 and is designated by the year in which it ends) indicate decreasing trends in flow-adjusted specific conductance, in flow-adjusted concentrations (FACs) for most filtered and unfiltered-recoverable trace elements, and in suspended sediment. Overall, magnitudes of the decreasing trends in FACs of metallic contaminants are largest for Bullion Mine tributary at mouth (site 3), Jack Creek at mouth (site 4), and Cataract Creek at Basin (site 8). For sites 3, 4, and 8, magnitudes of decreasing trends generally ranged from about -5 to -10 percent per year. Notably, the watersheds upstream from sites 3, 4, and 8 have been targeted by substantial remediation activities. Consideration of trend patterns among all stream sites in the Boulder River watershed provides strong evidence that remediation activities are the primary cause of decreasing trends in metallic contaminants. Trend results for sites in the Tenmile Creek watershed generally are more variable and difficult to interpret than for sites in the Boulder River watershed. Trend results for Tenmile Creek above City Diversion (site 11) and Minnehaha Creek near Rimini (site 12) for water years 2000–13 indicate decreasing trends in FACs of cadmium, copper, and zinc. The magnitudes of the decreasing trends in FACs of copper generally are moderate and statistically significant for sites 11 and 12. The magnitudes of the decreasing trends in FACs of cadmium and zinc for site 11 are minor to small and not statistically significant; however, the magnitudes for site 12 are moderate and statistically significant. In general, patterns in FACs for Tenmile Creek near Rimini (site 13) are not well represented by fitted trends within the short data collection period, which might indicate that the trend-analysis structure of the study is not appropriate for describing trends in FACs for site 13. The large decreasing trend in FACs of suspended sediment is the strongest indication of change in water quality during the short period of record for site 13; however, this trend is not statistically significant.

Montana↗