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Reanalysis indicates little evidence of reduction in eagle mortality rate by automated curtailment of wind turbines

Unintended consequences of renewable energy development include collision-caused deaths of birds and bats. Energy companies may risk prosecution if protected species are among the casualties. Shutting down turbines during high collision-risk conditions could reduce mortality rates, and several companies are developing systems to identify such conditions. A recent peer-reviewed article published in the Journal of Applied Ecology reported a remarkable ‘82% (75%–89%) reduction in the fatality rate’ of eagles at a wind energy facility due to a device marketed as Identiflight®—remarkable because of the impressive effect size and the extremely high level of precision. We show that reported results stem from four major errors, which, when corrected, give an unremarkable estimate of 50% (−159%, 89%) reduction (or possible increase) in the fatality rate. The errors include the following: (i) Ignoring annual variation . They compare the average number of eagle fatalities over 4 years before activation of Identiflight® to the number in a single year after, ignoring annual variation in fatalities. (ii) Unfounded causal inference . Lack of replication (one treatment year at one site) is ignored, leading to unwarranted causal inference. (iii) Inflated effect size . Effect size is inflated by assuming (without providing evidence) that the difference in fatality relative to the mean at a neighbouring site would be exactly repeated at the treatment site. Furthermore, the observed difference in fatalities at the control site depends strongly on the arbitrarily chosen date distinguishing the ‘Before’ and ‘After’ periods, yielding unreliable results. (iv) Inconsistency of data . It is unclear why 7 of 42 reported eagle fatalities were not included in the data analyzed, potentially further inflating the estimated effect size. Synthesis and applications . The recent claim, published in the Journal of Applied Ecology, that ‘Eagle fatalities are reduced by automated curtailment of wind turbines’ is not supported by the data but stems from errors that led to strongly overstated effect size and precision, and unfounded inference. In theory, automated curtailment has obvious potential for reducing eagle fatalities, but several more years of data at several locations and appropriate statistical analyses will be required to evaluate its effectiveness and to inform management prescriptions involving this technology.

Journal of Applied Ecology

U.S. Geological Survey Studies of Energy Resources in Sub-Saharan Africa

The U.S. Government and the American public need access to information on energy resources in sub-Saharan Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa (mostly Nigeria) produces 5 percent of the world's oil, while supplying the United States with 15 percent of our imports (Energy Information Administration). In the next 10 years, sub-Saharan oil and gas will become increasingly more important to the export market. New discoveries in offshore provinces of West Africa ensure a bright future for the region. Projections indicate that increased oil production in sub-Saharan Africa will far outpace the growth of intraregional consumption, providing greater quantities of oil for export (Forman, 1996). Also, West Africa, although a marginal supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG) today, will become an important LNG source to the international market by the year 2000 (Oil & Gas Journal, 1996). The United States needs up-to-date information about petroleum resources and the energy balance within the region to predict the future role of sub-Saharan Africa as a major oil and gas exporter. The data required to generate the needed information are often disseminated in archives of oil companies and African geologic surveys, or in obscure publications. For these reasons, the U.S. Geological Survey is collecting data on sub-Saharan energy and constructing a regional energy bibliography. The team of geoscientists will assure that this information is available quickly and from a scientifically based, objective view point.

Fact Sheet

The chemistry and isotopic composition of waters in the low-enthalpy geothermal system of Cimino-Vico Volcanic District, Italy

Geothermal energy exploration is based in part on interpretation of the chemistry, temperature, and discharge rate of thermal springs. Here we present the major element chemistry and the δD, δ 18 O, 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and δ 11 B isotopic ratio of groundwater from the low-enthalpy geothermal system near the city of Viterbo in the Cimino-Vico volcanic district of west-Central Italy. The geothermal system hosts many thermal springs and gas vents, but the resource is still unexploited. Water chemistry is controlled by mixing between low salinity,HCO 3 -rich fresh waters (<24.2°C) flowing in shallow volcanic rocks and SO 4 -rich thermal waters (25.3°C to 62.2°C) ascending from deep, high permeability Mesozoic limestones. The (equivalent) SO 4 /Cl (0.01–0.02), Na/Cl (2.82–5.83) and B/Cl ratios (0.02–0.38) of thermal waters differs from the ratios in other geothermal systems from Central Italy, probably implying a lack of hydraulic continuity across the region. The δ 18 O (−6.6‰ to −5.9‰) and δD (−40.60‰ to −36.30‰) isotopic composition of spring water suggest that the recharge area for the geothermal system is the summit region of Mount Cimino. The strontium isotope ratios ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) of thermal waters (0.70797–0.70805) are consistent with dissolution of the Mesozoic evaporite-carbonate units that constitute the reservoir, and the ratios of cold fresh waters mainly reflect shallow circulation through the volcanic cover and some minor admixture (<10%) of thermal water as well. The boron isotopic composition (δ 11 B) of fresh waters (−5.00 and 6.12‰) is similar to that of the volcanic cover, but the δ 11 B of thermal waters (−8.37‰ to −4.12‰) is a mismatch for the Mesozoic reservoir rocks and instead reflects dissolution of secondary boron minerals during fluid ascent through flysch units that overlie the reservoir. A slow and tortuous ascent enhances extraction of boron but also promotes conductive cooling, partially masking the heat present in the reservoir. Overall data from this study is consistent with previous studies that concluded that the geothermal system has a large energy potential.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research

Distribution of stress drop, stiffness, and fracture energy over earthquake rupture zones

Using information provided by slip models and the methodology of McGarr and Fletcher (2002), we map static stress drop, stiffness (k = ????/u, where ???? is static stress drop and u is slip), and fracture energy over the slip surface to investigate the earthquake rupture process and energy budget. For the 1994 M6.7 Northridge, 1992 M7.3 Landers, and 1995 M6.9 Kobe earthquakes, the distributions of static stress drop show strong heterogeneity, emphasizing the importance of asperities in the rupture process. Average values of static stress drop are 17, 11, and 4 Mpa for Northridge, Landers, and Kobe, respectively. These values are substantially higher than estimates based on simple crack models, suggesting that the failure process involves the rupture of asperities within the larger fault zone. Stress drop as a function of depth for the Northridge and Landers earthquakes suggests that stress drops are limited by crustal strength. For these two earthquakes, regions of high slip are surrounded by high values of stiffness. Particularly for the Northridge earthquake, the prominent patch of high slip in the central part of the fault is bordered by a ring of high stiffness and is consistent with expectations based on the failure of an asperity loaded at its edge due to exterior slip. Stiffness within an asperity is inversely related to its dimensions. Estimates of fracture energy, based on static stress drop, slip, and rupture speed, were used to investigate the nature of slip weakening at four locations near the hypocenter of the Kobe earthquake for comparison with independent results based on a dynamic model of this earthquake. One subfault updip and to the NE of the hypocenter has a fracture energy of 1.1 MJ/m2 and a slip-weakening distance, Dc, of 0.66 m. Right triangles, whose base and height are Dc and the dynamic stress drop, respectively, approximately overlie the slip-dependent stress given by Ide and Takeo (1997) for the same locations near the hypocenter. The total fracture energy for the Kobe earthquake, 3.7 ?? 1014 J, is about the same as the seismic energy (Ea = 3.2 ?? 1014 J.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

An episode of reinflation of the Long Valley Caldera, eastern California: 1989-1991

Following the episodes of inflation of the resurgent dome associated with the May 1980 earthquake sequence (four M 6 earthquakes) and the January 1983 earthquake swarm (two M 5.2 events), 7 years of frequently repeated two-color geodimeter measurements spanning the Long Valley caldera document gradually decreasing extensional strain rates from 5 ppm/yr in mid-1983, when the measurements began, to near zero in mid-1989. The corresponding seismic activity within the caldera persisted at a low rate of fewer than 10 M ≥ 1.2 earthquakes per week from 1985 through November 1989 with no events exceeding M 3.0. Early October 1989 marked a change in activity when measurements of the two-color geodimeter network showed a significant increase in extensional strain rate (9 ppm/yr) across the caldera. The seismic activity began exceeding 10 M ≥ 1.2 per week in early December 1989 and rapidly increased to a sustained level of tens of M ≥ 1.2 per week with bursts having hundreds of events per day. Many events exceeded M 3.0 and the largest event was M ≈ 4. The 1989–1991 inflation episode is the first time that we have sufficient geodetic measurements in Long Valley to define the temporal relation between onset of an inflation episode and onset of brittle failure (earthquake swarm within the caldera). Here, the onset of deformation preceded the onset of increased earthquake activity by more than 2 months. The seismicity rate began to decrease in mid-July 1990, consistent with a gradually slowing of extension across the caldera as measured by the two-color geodimeter. The recent episode of inflation can be modeled by a single Mogi point source located about 7 km beneath the center of the resurgent dome. In contrast, the deformation pattern observed between mid-1983 and mid-1989 is best reproduced by fault slip in the south moat, inflation at 6.5 km depth near Casa Diablo Hot Springs and inflation beneath the resurgent dome. It appears that the 7-km source beneath the resurgent dome that was active for the earlier episodes is the primary source for the more recent episode. The model used to satisfy the line length observations predicts 7.5 cm of uplift along leveling route along highway 395 from mid-1983 to mid-1989 and an additional 11 cm through the end of 1991. To comp are with the energy release from seismicity, the modeled inflation from late 1989 through the end of 1991 has a moment that is a factor of 40 more than the cumulative seismic moment from earthquakes located within the caldera from the same period. Thus the recent inflation episode represents a significant portion of the observed geodetic deformation with only little seismic energy release.

Journal of Geophysical Research

Modeling of fluidized ejecta emplacement over digital topography on Venus

The FLOW computer model of McEwen and Malin (1989) modified for application to the study of Venus fluidized ejecta blankets (FEBs) demonstrates that relatively low viscosities, yield strengths, and initial velocities are required to duplicate the observed flow paths of the outflow materials. The model calculates the velocities and simulated flow paths of gravity flows over Magellan topography. The model is formulated to determine flow movements from initial conditions, gravitational acceleration, and resistance to motion as described by Coulomb, viscous, and turbulent resistance forces. Successful duplication of observed FEB flow paths has been achieved for the FEB craters Addams, Isabella, and Cochran. When used as a simple energy‐line model, the model requires low coefficients of friction to extend FEBs to near their observed termini in the synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery, although the resulting straight flow lines do not follow the observed flow paths well. For Bingham flow, the model requires low values of viscosity and yield strength which are more similar to pyroclastic or debris flows than basaltic lavas. Flows of 100‐m depth require 1 to 2 orders of magnitude higher values of both viscosity and yield strength than 10‐m‐deep flows. The complicated nature of the flow lines for the low velocity model suggests that FEBs were probably emplaced under variably laminar and turbulent flow conditions, where underlying topography influenced both the direction and energy of flow materials.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets

1995 annual report on Alaska's mineral resources

Section 1011 of the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act (ANILCA) of 1980, as amended, requires that "On or before October 1, 1982, and annually thereafter, the President shall transmit to the Congress all pertinent public information relating to minerals in Alaska gathered by the United States Geological Surveys, United States Bureau of Mines, and any other Federal agency." This report has been prepared in response to that requirement. This circular is the fourteenth in the series of annual mineral reports mandated by the ANILCA. The report provides information about current Alaskan mineral projects and events during 1994; the emphasis is on Federal activity. The report addresses both onshore and offshore areas of Alaska. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), U.S. Bureau of Mines (USBM), and Minerals Management Service (MMS) are the principal Federal agencies that publish information about energy and mineral resources in Alaska. Their reports and data form the basis for decisions by other Federal agencies regarding land use, access, environmental impacts, and mining claim evaluation. The time required for sample analysis, data synthesis, and publication is lengthy; as a result, scientific reports are generally issued a year or more after initial sample and data collection. Other sources of information for this report include additional Federal and State publications, trade and professional journals, presentations at public meetings and hearings, and press releases. Information is provided for two broad categories of minerals: energy resources and nonfuel-mineral resources.

Circular

An econometric model of the U.S. secondary copper industry: Recycling versus disposal

In this paper, a theoretical model of secondary recovery is developed that integrates microeconomic theories of production and cost with a dynamic model of scrap generation and accumulation. The model equations are estimated for the U.S. secondary copper industry and used to assess the impacts that various policies and future events have on copper recycling rates. The alternatives considered are: subsidies for secondary production, differing energy costs, and varying ore quality in primary production.

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management

Effects of DDE and PCB (Aroclor 1260) on experimentally poisoned little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus): Lethal brain concentrations

Adult female little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus) were collected in a church attic in North East, Cecil County, Md. Mealworms (Tenebrio molitor) containing organochlorine pollutants were fed to the bats as follows: 5 bats were dosed at 480 ppm DDE, 12 at 150 ppm DDE, 5 at 1000 ppm polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB; Aroclor 1260), and 12 at 15 ppm PCB. Seven other bats were fed untreated mealworms. The objective was to elevate brain levels of DDE and PCB to lethality and measure these concentrations. During 40 d of dosage, one DDE-dosed bat and two PCB-dosed bats died after exhibiting the prolonged tremor that characterizes organochlorine poisoning. After dosage, surviving bats were starved to elevate brain levels of toxicants, and three additional DDE-dosed bats had tremors before dying. The mean brain concentration of DDE diagnostic of death was estimated as 603 ppm, range 540-670 ppm. This mean is 16-18% higher than means for Mexican free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis) and common grackles (Quiscalus quiscula), and may indicate less sensitivity. Lethal brain concentrations of Aroclor 1260 were 1300 and 1500 ppm. Such values appear to be higher than values (Aroclor 1254) for brown-headed cowbirds (Molothrus ater). During starvation, DDE-dosed bats lost weight about 24% faster than controls. If smaller amounts of stored DDE cause increases in metabolic rates of nonfeeding bats, as during hibernation or migration, the result could be premature energy depletion and increased mortality.

Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health

An assessment of morphometric indices, blood chemistry variables and an energy meter as indicators of the whole body lipid content in Micropterus dolomieu , Sander vitreus and Ictalurus punctatus

The effectiveness of several non-lethal techniques as indicators of total lipid content in smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu , walleye Sander vitreus and channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus was investigated. The techniques included (1) the Fulton and relative condition factors, (2) relative mass, (3) plasma indicators of nutritional status (alkaline phosphatase, calcium, cholesterol, protein, triglycerides and glucose) and (4) readings from a hand-held, microwave energy meter. Although simple linear regression analysis showed that lipid content was significantly correlated with several predictor variables in each species, the r 2 values for the relations ranged from 0&middot;17 to 0&middot;50 and no single approach was consistent for all species. Only one model, between energy-meter readings and lipid content in I. punctatus , had an r 2 value (0&middot;83) high enough to justify using it as a predictive tool. Results indicate that no single variable was an accurate and reliable indicator of whole body lipid content in these fishes, except the energy meter for I. punctatus .

Journal of Fish Biology

Molt chronology of northern pintails in California

Intensity and chronology of molt in 10 feather groups (head, neck, breast, belly, back, rump, side, scapular, tertial, and tail) were measured using percentages of developing feathers (pinfeathers) converted to molt scores (0-100) in samples plucked monthly from northern pintails ( Anas acuta ) collected by shooting from August through March 1980-82 in the Sacramento Valley, California. Data to supplement sample size of immatures were obtained from October 1982 through January 1983. Molt scores of the prealternate molt peaked (30-40% pinfeathers) in immature and adult females and adult males in October when nearly all feather groups were molting. The prealternate molt in immature males did not peak until November. Adult males nearly completed this molt by December; no new feather growth occurred after January. Immature males were still growing new neck, side, rump, scapular, and tertial feathers in December. Molt scores of the prebasic molt among adult and immature females peaked (30-40% new growth) in February in both years. The prealternate molt of breast and belly feathers (both sexes) peaked earlier (Sep) than molt of most other feathers (Oct). Increased molt scores in peak months were a function of a disproportionate increase of molt activity within each feather group and the number of feather groups with molt. Molt scores of the prebasic molt in adult females were less during December and January of the dry (1980-81) than the wet (1981-82) winter. Restriction or delay of molt may conserve energy or other nutrients during poor habitat conditions.

California

Ore grade, metal production, and energy

Recent resource estimates have been stimulated by national concern over present and pending shortages of energy and mineral resources. Although some believe that the resource base of a commodity is the total amount in the crust, the energy consumption for mining and milling under present technology suggests that grades of the metallic ores have a lower limit when production is assumed to be for common usages. The tonnage required to mine and mill ores to obtain one unit of metal is a hyperbolic function of the grade, and as the tonnage increases hyperbolically, so does the energy consumed. For copper, the hyperbolic relation suggests that deposits with grades below about 0.20-0.25 percent Cu will not be mined to produce metal for common electrical and construction uses. Although the energy used to mine and mill a unit of metal differs from one metal to another, all show the hyperbolic increase in energy consumption as grade decreases.

Journal of Research of the U.S. Geological Survey

Geothermal flux through palagonitized tephra, Surtsey, Iceland: The Surtsey temperature-data-relay experiment via Landsat-1

The net geothermal flux through palagonitized basaltic tephra rims of the Surtur I and Surtur II craters at Surtsey, Iceland, in 1972, is estimated at 780 ±325 μ cal cm -2 s -1 , indicating a decline since 1969 when a flux of 1,500 μ cal cm -2 s -1 was estimated. Heat flux in this range characterizes the postvolcanic environment on Surtsey in which the subaerial palagonitization of basaltic tephra is associated with mass transfer of hydrothermal vapor, either of meteoric or sea-water origin, only a few years after cessation of eruptive activity. The flux estimation is the result of the Surtsey data-relay experiment via Landsat-1 which was carried. out in several phases. Successful field installation and test transmissions demonstrated the feasibility of repetitive long-distance (that is, 4,800-km) data transmission and reception from a volcanic environment in Iceland via the Landsat Data Collection System. Temperature data were transmitted for a 38-day period in November and December 1972. A near-surface vertical gradient of 69.4 °C/m was obtained, suggesting a mixed mechanism of heat transfer, partitioned between conduction and convection. Comparison of four methods for estimating fluxes between 500 and 1,500 μ cal cm -2 s -1 , using temperature data derived from the Data Collection Platform, suggests that, where the only temperature available are from the surface and a depth of 1 m, methods of estimating the net geothermal flux from examination of spectral radiance are superior to methods that assume dominant convection or conduction. A computerized thermal-modeling technique to construct parametric diurnal surface-temperature curves is particularly applicable. Flux-estimation methods that assume dominant convection or conduction are limited by the lack of temperature data at greater depths and lack of knowledge of the exact energy partition.

Surtsey

Seismicity and shear strain in the southern Great Basin of Nevada and California

This study examines the relationship between the distribution of small earthquakes (M L ≤4.3) and mechanisms of strain accumulation and relaxation in an area with long repeat times between large events, the Southern Great Basin Seismic Network (SGBSN) region. The Great Basin is a unique continental extensional province characterized by normal and strike-slip faulting, high heat flow, crust of thin to normal thickness, and high elevations. The SGBSN is operated to provide data to address suitability issues pertaining to Yucca Mountain, Nevada which is being evaluated as a potential site for a national mined geologic nuclear waste repository. Suitability issues include estimation of the probability of occurrence of future damaging earthquakes, the characterization of the mechanisms that drive hydrologic flow, and the identification of fractures (faults) that might act as flow conduits or barriers. This study attempts to explain the distribution of small earthquakes in terms of spatial variations in the shear strain field; where strain concentrates there should be a greater number of small earthquakes. Strain field models are constructed under the assumption that long term fault behavior perturbs an otherwise uniform strain field. These strain field models are then interpreted with regard to the regional tectonics and site suitability issues. Modeling results provide one possible explanation of why earthquake clusters cover regions much larger than the surface projections of any of mapped major faults; clusters in a wide band along and extending northeast of the northern half of the Furnace Creek fault may correspond to elevated shear strains along the fault and a broad cluster in the Pahranagat Shear Zone may be associated with shear strain arising from a distribution of smaller localized faults. The relatively large number of small earthquakes in the southern and eastern portions of the Nevada Test Site is consistent with the strain field models. A minimum in shear strain at Yucca Mountain is predicted by all models consistent with an almost total lack of earthquakes observed there. The region to the west of the Death Valley/Furnace Creek fault system, the portion of the study area with the most active deformation but few small earthquakes, is an area of low shear strain. A possible reason for this is that the fault configuration in the area is optimal for accommodating regional deformation via large earthquakes or creep. While there is also a relative lack of earthquakes at Yucca Mountain, this may be indicative of a lack of accumulating strain energy and thus, a lower potential for a large earthquake.

Journal of Geophysical Research

Habitat selection by two species of burrowing mayfly nymphs in the Les Cheneaux Islands region of northern Lake Huron

This study focused primarily on the habitat preferences of Hexagenia limbata and Ephemera simulans , two species prevalent in northern Lake Huron, to gain a better understanding of the key components that determined their distribution and abundance. Both species preferred habitats based upon depth and sediment type. In addition, the burrowing activity of H. limbata was examined using in-situ, underwater sampling techniques specifically designed for the study. SCUBA divers made resin casts and took clear sediment cores in order to study how the burrow densities of H. limbata related to the sediment: water volume ratios. H. limbata contributed to the bioturbation and sediment porosity in specific, fine-sediment habitats. Younger age classes of this species utilized the burrows of their larger cohorts, an adaptation that could allow for energy savings and optimized growth.

Journal of Freshwater Ecology

Elicitation of macrophages from the peritoneal cavity of channel catfish

Four chemicals were evaluated for elicitation of macrophages in peritoneal cavities of 250–300‐g healthy channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus. Cellular exudates were collected at 3, 5, 7, 10, 14, and 20 d following intraperitoneal injections with squalene, Freund's incomplete adjuvant (FIA), goat serum, thioglycollate, or as a control, phosphate‐buffered saline. Injection with either squalene or FIA induced significantly greater ( P ⩽ 0.0001) macrophage recruitment than the other chemicals. The effectiveness of squalene and FIA was compared further by macrophage collection daily for 7 d. Squalene and FIA elicited similarly high macrophage responses ( P ⩽ 0.0450), the highest being 3.43 × 10 6 macrophages/mL (SE, 2.4 × 10 6 ) at 99% purity at day 2 and 2.1 × 10 6 macrophages/mL (SE, 0.7 × 10 6 ) at day 14 at 80% purity, respectively. In both experiments, the time after injection was not statistically significant, nor was there an interaction between time and chemicals. The occurrence of cells other than macrophages decreased with time to yield macrophage recoveries of 47–99% for squalene and 30–80% for FIA. Two subsets of macrophages were observed by means of flow cytometry. As demonstrated by chemiluminescence, the squalene‐elicited cells produced high‐energy oxygen compounds important to the phagocytic process.

Journal of Aquatic Animal Health

Yearling greater sage-grouse response to energy development in Wyoming

Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.)-dominated habitats in the western United States have experienced extensive, rapid changes due to development of natural-gas fields, resulting in localized declines of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) populations. It is unclear whether population declines in natural-gas fields are caused by avoidance or demographic impacts, or the age classes that are most affected. Land and wildlife management agencies need information on how energy developments affect sage-grouse populations to ensure informed land-use decisions are made, effective mitigation measures are identified, and appropriate monitoring programs are implemented (Sawyer et al. 2006). We used information from radio-equipped greater sage-grouse and lek counts to investigate natural-gas development influences on 1) the distribution of, and 2) the probability of recruiting yearling males and females into breeding populations in the Upper Green River Basin of southwestern Wyoming, USA. Yearling males avoided leks near the infrastructure of natural-gas fields when establishing breeding territories; yearling females avoided nesting within 950 m of the infrastructure of natural-gas fields. Additionally, both yearling males and yearling females reared in areas where infrastructure was present had lower annual survival, and yearling males established breeding territories less often, compared to yearlings reared in areas with no infrastructure. Our results supply mechanisms for population-level declines of sage-grouse documented in natural-gas fields, and suggest to land managers that current stipulations on development may not provide management solutions. Managing landscapes so that suitably sized and located regions remain undeveloped may be an effective strategy to sustain greater sage-grouse populations affected by energy developments. ?? 2010 The Wildlife Society.

Journal of Wildlife Management