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Complex vulnerabilities of the water and aquatic carbon cycles to permafrost thaw

The spatial distribution and depth of permafrost are changing in response to warming and landscape disturbance across northern Arctic and boreal regions. This alters the infiltration, flow, surface and subsurface distribution, and hydrologic connectivity of inland waters. Such changes in the water cycle consequently alter the source, transport, and biogeochemical cycling of aquatic carbon (C), its role in the production and emission of greenhouse gases, and C delivery to inland waters and the Arctic Ocean. Responses to permafrost thaw across heterogeneous boreal landscapes will be neither spatially uniform nor synchronous, thus giving rise to expressions of low to medium confidence in predicting hydrologic and aquatic C response despite very high confidence in projections of widespread near-surface permafrost disappearance as described in the 2019 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate: Polar Regions. Here, we describe the state of the science regarding mechanisms and factors that influence aquatic C and hydrologic responses to permafrost thaw. Through synthesis of recent topical field and modeling studies and evaluation of influential landscape characteristics, we present a framework for assessing vulnerabilities of northern permafrost landscapes to specific modes of thaw affecting local to regional hydrology and aquatic C biogeochemistry and transport. Lastly, we discuss scaling challenges relevant to model prediction of these impacts in heterogeneous permafrost landscapes.

Arctic

How will predicted land-use change affect waterfowl spring stopover ecology? Inferences from an individual-based model

Habitat loss, habitat fragmentation, overexploitation and climate change pose familiar and new challenges to conserving natural populations throughout the world. One approach conservation planners may use to evaluate the effects of these challenges on wildlife populations is scenario planning. We developed an individual-based model to evaluate the effects of future land use and land cover changes on spring-migrating dabbling ducks in North America. We assessed the effects of three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) on dabbling duck stopover duration, movement distances and mortality. We specifically focused on migration stopover duration because previous research has demonstrated that individuals arriving earlier on the nesting grounds exhibit increased reproductive fitness. Compared to present conditions, all three scenarios increased stopover duration and movement distances of agent ducks. Although all three scenarios presented migrating ducks with increased amounts of wetland habitat, scenarios also contained substantially less cropland, which decreased overall carrying capacity of the study area. Synthesis and applications . Land-use change may increase waterfowl spring migration stopover duration in the midcontinent region of North America due to reduced landscape energetic carrying capacity. Climate change will alter spatial patterns of crop distributions with corn and rice production areas shifting to different regions. Thus, conservation planners will have to address population-level energetic implications of shifting agricultural food resources and increased uncertainty in yearly precipitation patterns within the next 50 years.

Journal of Applied Ecology

King eider use an income strategy for egg production: a case study for incorporating individual dietary variation into nutrient allocation research

The use of stored nutrients for reproduction represents an important component of life-history variation. Recent studies from several species have used stable isotopes to estimate the reliance on stored body reserves in reproduction. Such approaches rely on population-level dietary endpoints to characterize stored reserves (“capital”) and current diet (“income”). Individual variation in diet choice has so far not been incorporated in such approaches, but is crucial for assessing variation in nutrient allocation strategies. We investigated nutrient allocation to egg production in a large-bodied sea duck in northern Alaska, the king eider ( Somateria spectabilis ). We first used Bayesian isotopic mixing models to quantify at the population level the amount of endogenous carbon and nitrogen invested into egg proteins based on carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios. We then defined the isotopic signature of the current diet of every nesting female based on isotope ratios of eggshell membranes, because diets varied isotopically among individual king eiders on breeding grounds. We used these individual-based dietary isotope signals to characterize nutrient allocation for each female in the study population. At the population level, the Bayesian and the individual-based approaches yielded identical results, and showed that king eiders used an income strategy for the synthesis of egg proteins. The majority of the carbon and nitrogen in albumen (C: 86 ± 18%, N: 99 ± 1%) and the nitrogen in lipid-free yolk (90 ± 15%) were derived from food consumed on breeding grounds. Carbon in lipid-free yolk derived evenly from endogenous sources and current diet (exogenous C: 54 ± 24%), but source contribution was highly variable among individual females. These results suggest that even large-bodied birds traditionally viewed as capital breeders use exogenous nutrients for reproduction. We recommend that investigations of nutrient allocation should incorporate individual variation into mixing models to reveal intraspecific variation in reproductive strategies.

Alaska

The Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Science Center synthesis report 2011–15—Projects, products, and science priorities

Introduction In 2009, the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Secretary Ken Salazar established a network of eight regional Climate Science Centers (CSCs) that, along with the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs), would help define and implement the Department's climate adaptation response. The Southeast Climate Science Center (SE CSC) was established at North Carolina State University (NCSU) in Raleigh, North Carolina, in 2010, under a 5-year cooperative agreement with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), to identify and address the regional challenges presented by climate change and variability in the Southeastern United States. All eight regional CSC hosts, including NCSU, were selected through a competitive process. Since its opening, the focus of the SE CSC has been on working with partners in the identification and development of research-based information that can assist managers, including cultural and natural resource managers, in adapting to global change processes, such as climate and land use change, that operate at local to global scales and affect resources important to the DOI mission. The SE CSC was organized to accomplish three goals: Provide co-produced, researched based, actionable science that supports transparent global change adaptation decisions . Convene conversations among decision makers, scientists, and managers to identify key ecosystem adaptation decisions driven by climate and land use change, the values and objectives that will be used to make decisions, and the research-based information needed to assess adaptation options . Build the capacity of natural resource professionals, university faculty, and students to understand and frame natural resource adaptation decisions and develop and use research-based information to make adaptation decisions . This report provides an overview of the SE CSC and the projects developed by the SE CSC since its inception. An important goal of this report is to provide a framework for understanding the evolution of the SE CSC science agenda, which has evolved over the first 5 years of the Center’s operation.

Open-File Report

Assessing biological effects from highway-runoff constituents

Increased emphasis on evaluation of nonpoint-source pollution has intensified the need for techniques that can be used to discern the toxicological effects of complex chemical mixtures. In response, the use of biological assessment techniques is receiving increased regulatory emphasis. When applied with documented habitat assessment and chemical analysis, these techniques can increase our understanding of the influence of environmental contaminants on the biological integrity and ecological function of aquatic communities. The contaminants of greatest potential concern in highway runoff are those that arise from highway construction, maintenance, and use. The major contaminants of interest are deicers; nutrients; metals; petroleum-related organic compounds, such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX), and methyl tert -butyl ether (MTBE); sediment washed off the road surface; and agricultural chemicals used in highway maintenance. Hundreds, if not thousands, of biological endpoints (measurable responses of living organisms) may be either directly or associatively affected by contaminant exposure. Measurable effects can occur throughout ecosystem processes across the wide range of biological complexity, ranging from responses at the biochemical level to the community level. The challenge to the environmental scientist is to develop an understanding of the relationship of effects at various levels of biological organization in order to determine whether a causal relationship exists between chemical exposure and substantial ecological impairment. This report provides a brief history of the evolution of biological assessment techniques, a description of the major classes of contaminants that are of particular interest in highway runoff, an overview of representative biological assessment techniques, and a discussion of data-quality considerations. Published reports with a focus on the effects of highway runoff on the local ecosystem were reviewed to provide information on (1) the suitability of the existing data for a quantitative national synthesis, (2) the methods available to study the effects of highway runoff on local ecosystems, and (3) the potential for adverse effects on the roadside environment and receiving waters. Although many biological studies have been done, the use of different methods and a general lack of sufficient documentation precludes a quantitative national synthesis on the basis of the existing data. The Federal Highway Administration, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. Geological Survey, the Intergovernmental Task Force on Monitoring Water Quality, and the National Resources Conservation Service all have developed and documented methods for assessing the effects of contaminants on ecosystems in receiving waters. These published methods can be used to formulate a set of protocols to provide consistent information from highway-runoff studies. Review of the literature indicates (qualitatively) that highway runoff (even from highways with high traffic volume) may not usually be acutely toxic. Tissue analysis and community assessments, however, indicate effects from highway- runoff sediments near discharge points (even from sites near highways with relatively low traffic volumes). At many sites, elevated concentrations of highway-runoff constituents were measured in tissues of species associated with aquatic sediments. Community assessments also indicate decreases in the diversity and productivity of aquatic ecosystems at some sites receiving highway runoff. These results are not definitive, however, and depend on many site-specific criteria that were not sufficiently documented in most of the studies reviewed.

Open-File Report

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2016 annual report

This is the ninth annual report highlighting U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) science and decision-support activities conducted for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI). The activities address specific management needs identified by WLCI partner agencies. In fiscal year (FY) 2016, there were 26 active USGS WLCI science-based projects. Of these 26 projects, one project was new for FY2016, and three were completed by the end of the fiscal year (though final products were still in preparation or review). USGS WLCI projects were grouped under five categories: (1) Baseline Synthesis, (2) Long-Term Monitoring, (3) Effectiveness Monitoring, (4) Mechanistic Studies of Wildlife, and (5) Data and Information Management. Each of these topic areas is designed to address WLCI management needs: identifying key drivers of change, identifying the condition and distribution of key wildlife species and habitats and of species’ habitat requirements, development of an integrated inventory and monitoring strategy, use of emerging technologies and development and testing of innovative methods for maximizing the efficiency and efficacy of monitoring efforts, evaluating the effectiveness of habitat treatment projects, evaluating the responses of wildlife to development, and developing a data clearinghouse and information management framework to support and provide access to results of most USGS WLCI projects. In FY2016, we assisted with updating the WLCI Conservation Action Plan and associated databases as part of the Comprehensive Assessment, and we also assisted with the Bureau of Land Management 2015 WLCI annual report. By the end of FY2016, we completed or had nearly completed assessments of WLCI energy and mineral resources and had submitted a manuscript on modeled effects of oil and gas development on wildlife to a peer-reviewed journal. We also initiated a study on the effects of wind energy on wildlife in the WLCI region. A USGS circular on WLCI long-term monitoring was in review at the end of the fiscal year, and seven projects monitoring water and vegetation (including changes in sagebrush cover and patterns of sagebrush mortality) continued through the year. USGS scientists continued many projects in FY2016 that evaluate the effectiveness of habitat conservation actions (including sagebrush, cheatgrass, and aspen habitat treatments) and provide tools in support of mechanistic studies of wildlife. In FY2016, USGS scientists, along with university and State partners, continued work on five focal wildlife species/communities (pygmy rabbits [ Brachylagus idahoensis ], greater sage grouse , mule deer, sagebrush songbirds, and native fish). In FY2016, the USGS Information Management Team presented information to WLCI scientists on how USGS tools and resources can be used to fulfill the requirements of new USGS policies regarding data release, data management, and data visualization.

Wyoming

Effects of food stress on survival and reproductive performance of seabirds

Traditional field methods of assessing effects of fluctuations in food supply on the survival and reproductive performance of seabirds may give equivocal results. In this project we applied an additional tool: The measure of stress hormones in free-ranging seabirds. Food stress can be quantified by measuring base levels of stress hormones such as corticosterone in the blood of seabirds, or the rise in blood levels of corticosterone in response to a standardized stressor: capture, handling and restraint. We applied these techniques to seabirds breeding in Lower Cook Inlet and also used captive birds for controlled experiments. This study provided a unique opportunity for a concurrent field and captive study of the behavioral and physiological consequences of stress in seabirds. Moreover, this study provides the basis for management of seabird populations in the areas affected by the Exxon Valdez oil spill, which will have broader applications for seabird monitoring programs. This year represents production of a synthesis of the project.

Alaska

Leaf nitrogen affects photosynthesis and water use efficiency similarly in nitrogen-fixing and non-fixing trees

Nitrogen (N)-fixing trees are thought to break a basic rule of leaf economics: higher leaf N concentrations do not translate into higher rates of carbon assimilation. Understanding how leaf N affects photosynthesis and water use efficiency (WUE) in this ecologically important group is critical. We grew six N-fixing and four non-fixing tree species for 4–5 years at four fertilization treatments in field experiments in temperate and tropical regions to assess how functional type (N fixer vs. non-fixer) and N limitation affected leaf N and how leaf N affected light-saturated photosynthesis ( A sat ), stomatal conductance ( g sw ) and WUE (WUE i and δ 13 C). A sat , WUE i and δ 13 C, but not g sw , increased with higher leaf N. Surprisingly, N-fixing and non-fixing trees displayed similar scaling between leaf N and these physiological variables, and this finding was supported by reanalysis of a global dataset. N fixers generally had higher leaf N than non-fixers, even when non-fixers were not N-limited at the leaf level. Leaf-level N limitation did not alter the relationship of A sat , g sw , WUE i and δ 13 C with leaf N, although it did affect the photosynthetic N use efficiency. Higher WUE was associated with higher productivity, whereas higher A sat was not. Synthesis : The ecological success of N-fixing trees depends on the effect of leaf N on carbon gain and water loss. Using a field fertilization experiment and reanalysis of a global dataset, we show that high leaf-level photosynthesis and WUE in N fixers stems from their higher average leaf N, rather than a difference between N fixers and non-fixers in the scaling of photosynthesis and WUE with leaf N. By clarifying the mechanism by which N fixers achieve and benefit from high WUE, our results further the understanding of global N fixer distributions.

Journal of Ecology

Intermountain west drought social science synthesis working group: Report to the National Climate Adaptation Science Center

Throughout the Intermountain West, there has been significant investment in understanding how social factors influence manager and citizen experiences of drought in particular locations. Yet there is still a gap in knowledge of how human dimensions of drought impacts, planning, and resilience are similar and different across cases and regions. Building on the natural science understanding developed by the USGS’ various ecological drought projects as well as a range of other place-based social science case studies of drought and its impacts, this project explored human dimensions of ecological drought across the intermountain west from a comparative, regional perspective. The Working Group brought together agency and university experts in the field of drought social science, including researchers affiliated with the North Central and South Central Climate Adaptation Science Centers (USGS), Western Water Assessment (a NOAA RISA program), the Northern Plains Climate Hub (USDA), and the USGS-supported SNAPP Ecological Drought Working Group. The group held three virtual meeting during Spring 2018 in preparation for an extended in-person workshop in June 2018 in Fort Collins, CO, followed by monthly calls to finalize products. The group’s objectives were to (1) integrate insights from existing social science studies of drought to identify commonalities and trends that generalize across cases while simultaneously accounting for the complexity experienced in particular places by individual decision makers, (2) develop a common lexicon and analytic framework for understanding drought across the Intermountain West from a social-ecological systems perspective, (3) identify emergent research themes, questions, and needs, (4) consider strategies for social scientists to contribute to drought management, (5) facilitate coordination among federal and university researchers for future collaborative activities, and (6) develop a typology of drought decision making that captured group insights. Project outputs included two conference sessions, a typology manuscript to be submitted by the end of FY19, and the conceptual framing of a rapid assessment methodology that was subsequently developed into a standalone project.

Cooperator Report

The bee microbiome: Impact on bee health and model for evolution and ecology of host-microbe interactions

As pollinators, bees are cornerstones for terrestrial ecosystem stability and key components in agricultural productivity. All animals, including bees, are associated with a diverse community of microbes, commonly referred to as the microbiome. The bee microbiome is likely to be a crucial factor affecting host health. However, with the exception of a few pathogens, the impacts of most members of the bee microbiome on host health are poorly understood. Further, the evolutionary and ecological forces that shape and change the microbiome are unclear. Here, we discuss recent progress in our understanding of the bee microbiome, and we present challenges associated with its investigation. We conclude that global coordination of research efforts is needed to fully understand the complex and highly dynamic nature of the interplay between the bee microbiome, its host, and the environment. High-throughput sequencing technologies are ideal for exploring complex biological systems, including host-microbe interactions. To maximize their value and to improve assessment of the factors affecting bee health, sequence data should be archived, curated, and analyzed in ways that promote the synthesis of different studies. To this end, the BeeBiome consortium aims to develop an online database which would provide reference sequences, archive metadata, and host analytical resources. The goal would be to support applied and fundamental research on bees and their associated microbes and to provide a collaborative framework for sharing primary data from different research programs, thus furthering our understanding of the bee microbiome and its impact on pollinator health.

mBio

A North American Hydroclimate Synthesis (NAHS) of the Common Era

This study presents a synthesis of century-scale hydroclimate variations in North America for the Common Era (last 2000 years) using new age models of previously published multiple proxy-based paleoclimate data. This North American Hydroclimate Synthesis (NAHS) examines regional hydroclimate patterns and related environmental indicators, including vegetation, lake water elevation, stream flow and runoff, cave drip rates, biological productivity, assemblages of living organisms, and salinity. Centennial-scale hydroclimate anomalies are obtained by iteratively sampling the proxy data on each of thousands of age model realizations and determining the fractions of possible time series indicating that the century-smoothed data was anomalously wet or dry relative to the 100 BCE to 1900 CE mean. Results suggest regionally asynchronous wet and dry periods over multidecadal to centennial timescales and frequent periods of extended regional drought. Most sites indicate drying during previously documented multicentennial periods of warmer Northern Hemisphere temperatures, particularly in the western U.S., central U.S., and Canada. Two widespread droughts were documented by the NAHS: from 50 BCE to 450 CE and from 800 to 1100 CE. Major hydroclimate reorganizations occurred out of sync with Northern Hemisphere temperature variations and widespread wet and dry anomalies occurred during both warm and cool periods. We present a broad assessment of paleoclimate relationships that highlights the potential influences of internal variability and external forcing and supports a prominent role for Pacific and Atlantic Ocean dynamics on century-scale continental hydroclimate.

Global and Planetary Change

Acidic Depositions: Effects on Wildlife and Habitats

The phenomenon of 'acid rain' is not new; it was recognized in the mid-1800s in industrialized Europe. In the 1960s a synthesis of information about acidification began in Europe, along with predictions of ecological effects. In the U.S. studies of acidification began in the 1920s. By the late 1970s research efforts in the U.S. and Canada were better coordinated and in 1980 a 10-year research program was undertaken through the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Plan (NAPAP) to determine the causes and consequences of acidic depositions. Much of the bedrock in the northeastern U.S. and Canada contains total alkalinity of <200 ?eq 1-1, thus, it lacks acid-neutralizing capacity. In the U.S. about 5% of the land area and in Canada about 43 % of the land area is sensitive to acidic depositions. Further, these areas receive >20 kg/ha/yr of wet sulphate depositions and are vulnerable to acidifying processes. Acidic depositions contribute directly to acidifying processes of soil and soil water. Soils must have sufficient acid-neutralizing capacity or acidity of soil will increase. Natural soil-forming processes that lead to acidification can be accelerated by acidic depositions. Long-term effects of acidification are predicted, which will reduce soil productivity mainly through reduced availability of nutrients and mobilization of toxic metals. Severe effects may lead to major alteration of soil chemistry, soil biota, and even loss of vegetation. Several species of earthworms and several other taxa of soil-inhabiting invertebrates, which are important food of many vertebrate wildlife species, are affected by low pH in soil. Loss of canopy in declining sugar maples results in loss of insects fed on by certain neotropical migrant bird species. No definitive studies categorically link atmospheric acidic depositions with direct or indirect effects on wild mammals. Researchers have concentrated on vegetative and aquatic effects. Circumstantial evidence suggests that effects are probable for certain species of aquatic-dependent mammals (water shrew, mink, and otter) and that these species are at risk from the loss of foods or contamination of these foods by metals, especially methylmercury. Continued acidification of terrestrial habitats, to the extent that earthworm populations are broadly reduced, might expose some fossorial mammalian species to risk because of decline in their major prey species. Acidic deposition affects primarily aquatic habitats of avian species by disrupting food webs (ecological effects) and increasing amounts of available heavy metals (mercury, aluminum, cadmium) in prey of avian species (toxicological effects). The ecological effects of acidifying wetlands are to reduce acid-intolerant prey (invertebrates) and to change prey quality from high-calcium bearing prey to low-calcium bearing prey. The toxicological effects are to increase contamination by heavy metals, especially methylated mercury, in foods of breeding waterbirds. The combination of these 2 types of effects results in potentially lower survival of adults and reduced production, growth, or survival of young of many bird species. Effects of acidification on herpteofauna and their habitats are mainly reproductive failure of susceptible species and reduced or metal-contaminated foods for both amphibians and reptiles.

Wildlife Society Technical Review

Hydrogeologic map of the Islamic Republic of Mauritania (phase V, deliverable 56), Synthesis of hydrologic data (phase V, deliverable 57), and chemical hydrologic map of the Islamic Republic of Mauritania (added value)

A hydrogeologic study was conducted to support mineral-resource assessment activities in Mauritania, Africa. Airborne magnetic depth estimates reveal two primary groundwater basins: the porous coastal Continental Terminal Basin (fill deposits); and the interior, fractured interior Taoudeni Basin. In the Continental Terminal Basin, there is uniform vertical recharge and localized discharge that is coincident with groundwater pumping at Nouakchott. This pumping center induces eastward flow of groundwater from the Atlantic Ocean resulting in a salinity gradient that diminishes quality over 100 km. Groundwater also flows southward into the basin from Western Sahara. By contrast, an interbasin exchange occurs as fresh groundwater flows westward from the Taoudeni Basin. In the Taoudeni Basin, zones of local recharge occur in three areas: northwest at the edge of the Rgue&iuml;bat Shield; at the city of Tidjikja; and near the center of the basin. Groundwater also flows across international boundaries: northward into Western Sahara and westward into Mali. At the southern country boundary, the Senegal River serves as both a source and sink of fresh groundwater to the Continental Terminal and Taoudeni basins. Using a geographical information system, thirteen hydrogeologic units are identified based on lateral extent and distinct hydraulic properties for future groundwater model development. Combining this information with drilling productivity, groundwaterquality, and geophysical interpretations (fracturing and absence of subsurface dikes) three potential water-resource development targets were identified: sedimentary rocks of the Jurassic, Cretaceous, and Quaternary Periods; sedimentary rocks of Cambrian and Ordovician Periods; and sedimentary rocks of Neoproterozoic age.

Open-File Report

Modelling the seasonality of subsurface light and primary production in the Arabian Sea

Seasonal changes in mixed-layer depth and phytoplankton biomass in the Arabian Sea are assessed with climatologies of ship-based hydrographic measurements and ocean-color observations from satellite. At the close of the intermonsoons in November and especially May, the open Arabian Sea resembles the stereotypic, unperturbed tropical ocean, with a thin oligotrophic mixed layer and a pronounced subsurface chlorophyll maximum. Both the northeast and southwest monsoons disrupt this typical tropical hydrography through mixed-layer deepening and eutrophication in the central and northern Arabian Sea. Computations using a spectral model of light penetration suggest that seasonal changes in mixed-layer thickness and phytoplankton concentration result in pronounced fluctuations through the annual cycle in the radiant flux reaching the base of the mixed layer. At the close of the fall and spring intermonsoons the base of the model euphotic zone is in the thermocline across all of the open Arabian Sea. The euphotic zone appears to rise into the mixed layer of the northern Arabian Sea during both the winter and summer monsoons. Strong seasonality in total primary production and its partitioning between the mixed layer and thermocline is predicted byb a photo-synthesis-irradiance model for a site in the western Arabian Sea (14.36 &deg; N, 57.38&deg; E). Modeled mixed-layer primary production depicts an intense peak for the southwest monsoon and a secondary northeast monsoon peak separated by intermonsoon period of low production. During the fall and spring intermonsoons, in the presence of a subsurface clorophyll maximum, the model estimate of primary production in the thermocline exceeds that in the mixed layer. Our model calculations suggest that the subsurface clorophyll maximum present in the Arabian Sea during the spring intermonsoon is a precursor of the regional, summer, phytoplankton bloom.

Marine Ecology Progress Series

India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 Summary of Scientific Results: Gas hydrate systems along the eastern continental margin of India

The primary objectives of the India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 (NGHP-02) were to obtain new data on the occurrence of gas hydrate systems and to advance the understanding of the controls on the formation of gas hydrate accumulations in the offshore of India. In accordance with the ultimate overall goal of the NGHP effort to assess the energy resource potential of marine gas hydrates in India, particular focus was placed on the exploration and evaluation of gas hydrate occurrences at high saturations in sand-rich systems. NGHP-02 operations were conducted from 3-March-2015 to 28-July-2015 off the eastern coast of India and included logging while drilling (LWD) operations at 25 locations, and coring and wireline logging operations at 10 locations, in the Krishna-Godavari and Mahanadi Basins. The formation of highly concentrated gas hydrate accumulations, which are more suitable for energy extraction, requires the presence of relatively coarse-grained sediments with porosity needed to support the migration and accumulation of gas, and the nucleation of gas hydrate. The results of downhole logging, coring and formation pressure testing operations during NGHP-02 have confirmed the presence of extensive sand-rich depositional systems throughout the deepwater portions of the Krishna-Godavari and Mahanadi Basins. Two areas of Krishna-Godavari Basin, referred to as Areas B and C, contain substantial gas hydrate accumulations in sand-rich systems and therefore represent ideal candidate sites for future gas hydrate production testing. This summary and technical report includes a comprehensive synthesis of the geologic, geophysical, geochemical, and physical property data acquired during NGHP-02 as it relates to the controls on gas hydrate occurrence, particularly with regards to sand-hosted accumulations. In the Mahanadi Basin, despite the confirmation of extensive reservoir capacity, gas supply at the NGHP-02 sites was insufficient to charge the reservoirs with gas hydrates. In the Krishna-Godavari Basin, extensive reservoir systems were confirmed with sediment grain-sizes ranging from coarse-silts to gravels. These reservoirs range from fully- to partially filled with gas hydrate. The gas is determined to be from only microbial sources, and in part migrated into the reservoirs from deeper systems. The controls on gas hydrate occurrence are complex and varied; and include substantial reservoir heterogeneity and sufficient permeability throughout the reservoirs and seals that allowed pervasive fluid flow into and through the hydrate-bearing systems. These discoveries are the most significant confirmation of the exploration approach that focuses on direct detection of hydrate reservoirs supported by comprehensive petroleum systems analyses.

Journal of Marine and Petroleum Geology

Compounds of emerging concern detected in water samples from potable water and wastewater treatment plants and detected in water and bed-sediment samples from sites on the Trinity River, Dallas, Texas, 2009–13

The population in the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area in northern Texas is rapidly growing, resulting in a rapid increase in the demand for potable water and an increase in the discharge of wastewater treatment plant effluent. An assessment of compounds of emerging concern (CECs) in samples collected at potable water and wastewater treatment plants in Dallas and downstream from Dallas in the Trinity River was completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the City of Dallas, Dallas Water Utilities. CECs are synthetic or naturally occurring chemicals that are not commonly monitored in the environment but can enter the environment and cause known or suspected adverse ecological or human health effects. CECs can enter the environment through nonpoint sources (for example, runoff) and point sources (for example, concentrated animal feeding operations and treated-effluent discharge from wastewater treatment plants), which can increase concentrations of CECs especially in highly populated areas. CECs include pharmaceuticals (prescription and nonprescription), steroidal hormones, stanols, sterols, detergents and detergent metabolites (hereinafter referred to as “detergents”), personal-use products, pesticides, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), flame retardants, plasticizers, and other organic compounds used in everyday domestic, agricultural, and industrial applications. The release of CECs to the environment went largely unrecognized until relatively recently. Increased loading of certain CECs to the environment, combined with advancements in laboratory analysis methods that resulted in appreciably lower detection levels, brought greater attention to the release of CECs. In addition, synthesis of new chemicals or changes in use and disposal of existing chemicals can create new sources of CECs. Some CECs are endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs), which can elicit adverse effects on development, behavior, and reproduction of wildlife and can cause dysfunction of human and wildlife endocrine (hormone) systems. Results of studies in the United States and Europe indicate that CECs, their metabolites, and industrial, agricultural, and household wastewater products are present in the aquatic environment, water treatment plants, and septic systems. CECs, especially pharmaceuticals, are of interest because of their persistence, widespread use, and potential to cause adverse effects in humans and nontargeted organisms. There is also concern that some CECs and EDCs resist degradation of water treatment processes at potable water treatment plants (PWTPs) and wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) and that treated-effluent discharge could contain compounds that negatively affect biota living in receiving waters. Therefore, CECs and EDCs are more likely to be detected in environmental samples collected near areas of high population density where treated effluent from WWTPs can contribute substantially to receiving waters. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Dallas, Dallas Water Utilities, evaluated the occurrence and concentrations of selected CECs in samples collected at PWTPs and WWTPs in Dallas and downstream from the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area in the Trinity River, Texas, from August 2009 to December 2013. Water samples were collected at three PWTP sites, two WWTP sites, and five study sites on the Trinity River; all sites where samples were collected were in or downstream from Dallas. These water samples were analyzed for 120 CECs, including human-health pharmaceuticals (prescription and nonprescription), antibiotics, steroidal hormones, stanols, sterols, detergents, personal-use products (flavors and fragrances), pesticides and repellents, industrial wastewater compounds, disinfection compounds, PAHs, flame retardants, and plasticizers. Additionally, bed-sediment samples were collected at each of the five Trinity River sites. The bed-sediment samples were analyzed for 57 CECs. In general, the water treatment processes at PWTPs and WWTPs were effective at reducing detections and concentrations of CECs to undetectable levels or transforming the compounds into degradates that were not analyzed. There were 14 and 73 CECs detected in raw water and in untreated-influent water at PWTPs and WWTPs, respectively. Of these, 11 of the 14 CECs detected in raw-water samples and 44 of the 73 CECs detected in untreated-influent samples were not detected in finished water or in treated-effluent water samples, respectively, indicating that these compounds were removed or degraded to compounds that were not analyzed. Some CECs, however, are resistant to degradation and were detected in untreated and treated water at PWTPs and at WWTPs. The three CECs detected at PWTPs in raw-water and finished-water samples were tris(dichloroisopropyl)phosphate, benzophenone, and methyl salicylate. At WWTPs, 29 CECs were detected, including carbamazepine, sulfamethoxazole, 4-androstene-3,17- dione , 3-beta-coprostanol, acetyl-hexamethyl-tetrahydronaphthalene (AHTN), hexahydro-hexamethyl-cyclopenta-benzopyran (HHCB), 1,4-dichlorobenzene, tribromomethane, benzophenone, and tris(dichloroisopropyl)phosphate, in untreated and treated water, indicating that treatment processes likely did not remove or degrade these compounds. Of the 23 CECs detected in stream-water samples collected at 5 sites on the Trinity River in or near Dallas, 10 CECs (carbamazepine, sulfamethoxazole, caffeine, 3-beta-coprostanol, cholesterol, HHCB, benzophenone, triethyl citrate, tributyl phosphate, and tris(dichloroisopropyl)phosphate) were detected at all 5 sites. The 10 CECs detected in water samples collected at all 5 sites on the Trinity River were also detected in treated-effluent water at WWTPs. Eleven of the 57 targeted CECs were detected in bed-sediment samples collected at study sites on the Trinity River. Of these 11 CECs, only 2 (beta-sitosterol and cholesterol) were detected in bed-sediment samples at all 5 sites on the Trinity River. Nine of these 11 CECs were not detected in any water-column sample, likely because of the strong hydrophobic characteristics of these compounds. Results from water treatment plants indicate that the water treatment process is less effective for removing or degrading compounds that are engineered to be resistant to degradation. These results also indicate the presence of CECs and EDCs at locations upstream from PWTPs in Dallas. Results from Trinity River main-stem sites indicate that some compounds are naturally attenuated during transport, but a few are persistent throughout the study reach. Many CECs and EDCs are hydrophobic and were only detected in bed sediment, indicating multiple pathways through which CECs can persist in the environment. In general, concentrations of CECs in the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area were similar to those found in metropolitan areas nationwide.

Texas

Relative influence of human harvest, carnivores, and weather on adult female elk survival across western North America

Well-informed management of harvested species requires understanding how changing ecological conditions affect demography and population dynamics, information that is lacking for many species. We have limited understanding of the relative influence of carnivores, harvest, weather and forage availability on elk Cervus elaphus demography, despite the ecological and economic importance of this species. We assessed adult female survival, a key vital rate for population dynamics, from 2746 radio-collared elk in 45 populations across western North America that experience wide variation in carnivore assemblage, harvest, weather and habitat conditions. Proportional hazard analysis revealed that 'baseline' (i.e. not related to human factors) mortality was higher with very high winter precipitation, particularly in populations sympatric with wolves Canis lupus. Mortality may increase via nutritional stress and heightened vulnerability to predation in snowy winters. Baseline mortality was unrelated to puma Puma concolor presence, forest cover or summer forage productivity. Cause-specific mortality analyses showed that wolves and all carnivore species combined had additive effects on baseline elk mortality, but only reduced survival by <2%. When human factors were included, ‘total’ adult mortality was solely related to harvest; the influence of native carnivores was compensatory. Annual total mortality rates were lowest in populations sympatric with both pumas and wolves because managers reduced female harvest in areas with abundant or diverse carnivores. Mortality from native carnivores peaked in late winter and early spring, while harvest-induced mortality peaked in autumn. The strong peak in harvest-induced mortality during the autumn hunting season decreased as the number of native carnivore species increased. Synthesis and applications. Elevated baseline adult female elk mortality from wolves in years with high winter precipitation could affect elk abundance as winters across the western US become drier and wolves recolonize portions of the region. In the absence of human harvest, wolves had additive, although limited, effects on mortality. However, human harvest, and its apparent use by managers to offset predation, primarily controls overall variation in adult female mortality. Altering harvest quotas is thus a strong tool for offsetting impacts of carnivore recolonization and shifting weather patterns on elk across western North America.

Colorado;Idaho;Montana;Utah;Washington;Wyoming

Long-term aridity shapes grassland drought resistance and modulates the roles of plant diversity and functional composition

Understanding the drivers of plant community stability is crucial for predicting ecosystem responses to extreme drought events. In grasslands, drought resistance supports the maintenance of key functions such as above-ground primary productivity, making the identification of resistance drivers essential to guide management under climate change. Proposed factors contributing to grassland stability include multiple diversity facets, functional traits and long-term climate, but most assessments focus on temporal invariability under historical disturbance regimes, leaving mechanisms of extreme drought resistance and their variation across climatic contexts relatively underexplored. Here, we analysed data from 54 grassland sites of the International Drought Experiment to examine the resistance of above-ground net primary productivity to a short-term (i.e. 1 year) extreme drought. We investigated the relative importance and joint influence of functional composition (i.e. community-weighted means of leaf and root traits), plant diversity facets (taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic) and climate (aridity and rainfall variability) on drought resistance. We used structural equation models to disentangle direct, indirect, and moderating pathways linking these drivers to drought resistance. Long-term aridity appeared as one of the most important drivers of grassland resistance to drought, with more arid sites showing lower resistance. Moreover, aridity impacted resistance through indirect effects by shaping functional composition and plant diversity, and by moderating the influence of plant diversity and functional composition. Functional composition related to dehydration avoidance and dehydration tolerance was also positively associated with resistance, while diversity had a weaker relationship with resistance, mostly through functional and phylogenetic facets. Interannual rainfall variability also influenced resistance, with different effects in more arid versus humid and less arid sites. Synthesis . Widely studied stability drivers such as plant diversity and functional composition have only partial explanatory power for short-term drought resistance of above-ground productivity in grasslands at a global scale. The abiotic context, particularly long-term aridity, is crucial for understanding ecosystem responses to rainfall variation and can improve predictive models for advancing the study of ecosystem resistance to drought. Along with management practices that target high species diversity or specific traits, restoration and conservation practices should support vulnerable sites experiencing high aridity

Journal of Ecology