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USGS2007

Proceedings for a workshop on deposit modeling, mineral resource assessment, and their role in sustainable development

The world's use of nonfuel mineral resources continues to increase to support a growing population and increasing standards of living. The ability to meet this increasing demand is affected especially by concerns about possible environmental degradation associated with minerals production and by competing land uses. What information does the world need to support global minerals development in a sustainable way? Informed planning and decisions concerning sustainability and future mineral resource supply require a long–term perspective and an integrated approach to resource, land use, economic, and environmental management worldwide. Such perspective and approach require unbiased information on the global distribution of identified and especially undiscovered resources, the economic and political factors influencing their development, and the potential environmental consequences of their exploitation. The U.S. Geological Survey and the former Deposit Modeling Program of the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS) of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) sponsored a workshop on "Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Their Role in Sustainable Development" at the 31st International Geological Congress (IGC) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on August 18–19, 2000. The purpose of the workshop was to review the state-of-the-art in mineral deposit modeling and resource assessment and to examine the role of global assessments of nonfuel mineral resources in sustainable development. The workshop addressed questions such as the following: Which of the available mineral deposit models and assessment methods are best suited for predicting the locations, deposit types, and amounts of undiscovered nonfuel mineral resources remaining in the world? What is the availability of global geologic, mineral deposit, and mineral exploration information? How can mineral resource assessments be used to address economic and environmental issues? Presentations included overviews of assessment methods applied in previous national and other small-scale assessments of large regions and of the resulting assessment products and their uses. Twenty-seven people from Canada, China, Finland, Germany, Japan, Peru, Slovenia, South Africa, United States, and Venezuela participated in the 2-day post-Congress workshop. The attendees represented academia, government, environmental organizations, and the mining industry.

Circular↗

USGS2016

Hydrologic monitoring for Chicago’s Sustainable Streetscapes Program

The Chicago Department of Transportation’s Sustainable Streetscapes Program is an innovative program that strives to convert Chicago’s neighborhood commercial areas, riverwalks, and bicycle facilities into active, attractive places for Chicagoans to live, work, and play. The objective of each project is to create flourishing public places while improving the ability of infrastructure to support dense urban living. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District of Greater Chicago (MWRDGC), and the Chicago Department of Transportation (CDOT), is monitoring the pre- and postconstruction hydrologic characteristics of an urban corridor on the south side of Chicago that is being renovated using sustainable streetscapes technology. The CDOT Sustainable Streetscapes Program utilizes urban stormwater best-management practices (BMPs) to reduce the storm runoff to the local combined sewer system. The urban stormwater BMPs include permeable pavement, bioswales, infiltration basins, and planters. The urban stormwater BMPs are designed to capture the first flush of storm runoff through features that enhance the infiltration of stormwater runoff to shallow groundwater. The hydrology of the Sustainable Streetscapes Program area is being monitored to evaluate the impacts and effectiveness of the urban stormwater BMP’s. Continuous monitoring of rainfall, sewer flows, stormwater runoff, soil moisture, and groundwater levels will give engineers and scientists measured data to define baseline pre- and postconstruction conditions for the evaluation of the BMPs. Three tipping-bucket rain gages are located along the project corridor. The data provide information on the intensity and volume of rainfall. Rainfall can be highly variable even over a small area like the project corridor. Continuous recording meters are located at specific locations in the combined sewers to record water level and flow during both dry weather (mostly sanitary flow) and wet weather conditions (stormwater runoff in addition to the sanitary flow). Sanitary flow is the largest source of flow in the combined sewers during dry weather, and stormwater runoff and sanitary flow combine during wet weather. The sewer flow data allow engineers and scientists to calculate total runoff volume for selected storm events. Wells are located within the project corridor to record water levels and help determine the direction of movement of groundwater in response to rainfall and snowmelt. In urban settings with aging sewer systems, groundwater can seep into the sewers or combined sewage can seep from the sewers into the local groundwater system. The groundwater data are also important in evaluating the overall impacts of increased infiltration resulting from BMPs. Data from wells show the relative water levels of shallow groundwater, water levels in the combined sewer system, and nearby surface-water channels within the project corridor. In some aging urban sewer systems, the local combined sewer system lies below the water table and receives substantial amounts of groundwater inflow, which can significantly reduce the amount of additional water the sewer system can accept. The bioswale along the south side of West Cermak Road near South Throop Street functions to infiltrate stormwater runoff from the road. Stormwater on the road surface initially drains to the curb and then flows along the curb until it reaches a curb cut-out. Materials within the bioswale allow stormwater to infiltrate and reduce the load to the combined sewer. A common feature in urban areas are curbside catch basins that collect stormwater runoff from paved streets. Stormwater drains first to the curb and then flows along the curb to the catch basin. Lateral sewer pipe connects the catch basin to the combined sewer beneath the street. The use of permeable pavers along the curbs in the project study reach let stormwater infiltrate before it reaches the curb, thus reducing the amount of stormwater draining to the combined sewers. Water-level data from catch basins in the project study area show the effects of permeable pavers in reducing the stormwater drainage to the combined sewers.

Illinois↗

USGS2008

Availability, sustainability, and suitability of ground water, Rogers Mesa, Delta County, Colorado: Types of analyses and data for use in subdivision water-supply reports

The population of Delta County, Colorado, like that in much of the Western United States, is forecast to increase substantially in the next few decades. A substantial portion of the increased population likely will reside in rural subdivisions and use residential wells for domestic water supplies. In Colorado, a subdivision developer is required to submit a water-supply plan through the county for approval by the Colorado Division of Water Resources. If the water supply is to be provided by wells, the water-supply plan must include a water-supply report. The water-supply report demonstrates the availability, sustainability, and suitability of the water supply for the proposed subdivision. During 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Delta County, Colorado, began a study to develop criteria that the Delta County Land Use Department can use to evaluate water-supply reports for proposed subdivisions. A table was prepared that lists the types of analyses and data that may be needed in a water-supply report for a water-supply plan that proposes the use of ground water. A preliminary analysis of the availability, sustainability, and suitability of the ground-water resources of Rogers Mesa, Delta County, Colorado, was prepared for a hypothetical subdivision to demonstrate hydrologic analyses and data that may be needed for water-supply reports for proposed subdivisions. Rogers Mesa is a 12-square-mile upland mesa located along the north side of the North Fork Gunnison River about 15 miles east of Delta, Colorado. The principal land use on Rogers Mesa is irrigated agriculture, with about 5,651 acres of irrigated cropland, grass pasture, and orchards. The principal source of irrigation water is surface water diverted from the North Fork Gunnison River and Leroux Creek. The estimated area of platted subdivisions on or partially on Rogers Mesa in 2007 was about 4,792 acres of which about 2,756 acres was irrigated land in 2000. The principal aquifer on Rogers Mesa consists of alluvial-fan deposits that overlie shale and, locally, sandstone. Maps of the base of the aquifer, the water table, and the saturated thickness of the aquifer were prepared from data from the well files of the Colorado Division of Water Resources. The base of the aquifer generally is topographically higher than the valleys of the North Fork Gunnison River and Leroux Creek, and direct hydraulic connection of the aquifer to North Fork Gunnison River and Leroux Creek is limited. The aquifer is recharged primarily by infiltration of surface water diverted for irrigation. Ground water discharges to seeps and springs and through slope deposits at the boundaries of the aquifer. Data from the well files also were used to estimate the specific capacity of wells and to estimate the transmissivity and hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer. A water budget was used to estimate recharge to and discharge from the aquifer. Although storage within the aquifer likely varies seasonally and from year to year, it was assumed that there were no long-term changes in ground-water storage. Estimated average annual recharge to and discharge from the aquifer during November 1998 through October 2006 were about 30,767 acre-feet per year. Although sufficient ground water is available on Rogers Mesa for additional domestic water supplies, conversion of irrigated land to residential land use likely would reduce recharge to the aquifer, affecting the sustainability of ground-water supplies on Rogers Mesa. Stream-depletion analyses indicate that the ground water in the aquifer likely would be considered tributary ground water and additional uses of ground water to supply new subdivisions likely would require implementation of augmentation plans. Although sufficient ground water is available on Rogers Mesa for additional domestic water supplies, conversion of irrigated land to residential land use likely would reduce recharge to the aquifer, affecting the sustainability of ground-water supplies on Rogers Mesa. Stream-depletion analyses indicate that the ground water in the aquifer likely would be considered tributary ground water and additional uses of ground water to supply new subdivisions likely would require implementation of augmentation plans. Although the dissolved solids and dissolved sulfate concentrations in ground water from Rogers Mesa aquifer commonly exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Secondary Maximum Contaminant Levels for drinking-water supplies, the quality of ground water from the aquifer generally is suitable for residential use. Concentrations of total nitrogen (nitrite plus nitrate, as nitrogen) in ground water ranged from 0.38 to 3.2 milligrams per liter and were less than the State of Colorado maximum contaminant level of 10 milligrams per liter. Concentrations of selenium from seeps and springs at the boundaries of the aquifer commonly exceeded 50 micrograms per liter, the State of Colorado maximum contaminant level for drinking-water supplies. This preliminary evaluation of ground-water supplies on Rogers Mesa could be improved with the collection of additional data including: additional mapping of hydrogeologic features; more accurate locations and altitudes of wells; accurate estimates of water-budget components; measurements of ground-water levels; and collection and analyses of ground-water samples. The use of numerical models of ground-water flow could improve evaluations of the potential effects of changes in land and water use on the water budget, aquifer storage, stream depletion, and well interference.

Colorado↗

USGS2004

Important features of Sustainable Aggregate Resource Management

Every society, whether developed, developing or in a phase of renewal following governmental change, requires stable, adequate and secure supplies of natural resources. In the latter case, there could be significant need for construction materials for rebuilding infrastructure, industrial capacity, and housing. It is essential that these large-volume materials be provided in a rational manner that maximizes their societal contribution and minimizes environmental impacts. We describe an approach to resource management based on the principles of sustainable developed. Sustainable Aggregate Resource Management offers a way of addressing the conflicting needs and interests of environmental, economic, and social systems. Sustainability is an ethics based concept that utilizes science and democratic processes to reach acceptable agreements and tradeoffs among interests, while acknowledging the fundamental importance of the environment and social goods. We discuss the features of sustainable aggregate resource management.

Geologija↗

USGS2006

An integrated monitoring approach using multiple reference sites to assess sustainable restoration in coastal Louisiana

Achieving sustainable resource management in coastal Louisiana requires establishing reference conditions that incorporate the goals and objectives of restoration efforts. Since the reference condition is usually considered sustainable, it can be a gauge to assess the present condition of a (degraded) system or to evaluate progress of management actions toward some target system state (the reference or desired conditions). In 2003, the Coastal Wetlands Planning, Protection, and Restoration Act (CWPPRA) Task Force and the Louisiana State Wetlands Authority adopted the “Coastwide Reference Monitoring System -- Wetlands” (CRMS--Wetlands) for Louisiana. This system will provide data from multiple reference sites to explore the properties of a sustained reference condition. CRMS--Wetlands provides links between project-specific and system-wide objectives, criteria for selecting reference sites or conditions, a more robust statistical design, and critical monitoring variables. In addition, a system-wide assessment and monitoring plan (SWAMP) is being developed that incorporates and evaluates existing monitoring efforts (to the extent possible) within a system-wide experimental design. The SWAMP will integrate monitoring of biological, chemical, physical, and climatological variables in four modules: wetlands (CRMS--Wetlands), barrier islands, inshore waters and rivers, and nearshore coastal waters. Data and information collected under SWAMP will contribute to developing a systems-synthesis model for coastal Louisiana. Regional restoration project leaders in coastal Louisiana acknowledge the mutual dependence of monitoring and modeling the coastal landscape. For example, experiments or measurements should not be conducted independently of modeling and vice versa. Assessment should be directed at reducing scientific uncertainty to improve confidence in modeling and monitoring tools and ultimately to assist management actions. An adaptive environmental assessment and management process prescribes modeling, monitoring, and research activities to be conducted from initial stages of restoration planning to optimize the ability to assess and achieve sustainable restoration.

Louisiana↗

USGS2017

Sustainability of utility-scale solar energy – critical ecological concepts

Renewable energy development is an arena where ecological, political, and socioeconomic values collide. Advances in renewable energy will incur steep environmental costs to landscapes in which facilities are constructed and operated. Scientists – including those from academia, industry, and government agencies – have only recently begun to quantify trade-offs in this arena, often using ground-mounted, utility-scale solar energy facilities (USSE, ≥1 megawatt) as a model. Here, we discuss five critical ecological concepts applicable to the development of more sustainable USSE with benefits over fossil-fuel-generated energy: (1) more sustainable USSE development requires careful evaluation of trade-offs between land, energy, and ecology; (2) species responses to habitat modification by USSE vary; (3) cumulative and large-scale ecological impacts are complex and challenging to mitigate; (4) USSE development affects different types of ecosystems and requires customized design and management strategies; and (5) long-term ecological consequences associated with USSE sites must be carefully considered. These critical concepts provide a framework for reducing adverse environmental impacts, informing policy to establish and address conservation priorities, and improving energy production sustainability.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2019

Evaluating the sustainability of a cisco fishery in Thunder Bay, Ontario, under alternative harvest policies

Sustainable management of fish stocks is promoted through the application of management strategy evaluations (MSEs), providing information to managers on the relative performance of alternative management approaches (strategies) while accounting for uncertainty. In this study, we developed a simplified MSE of a stock of Cisco Coregonus artedi in Thunder Bay, Ontario, to determine both the sustainability of the current harvest control rule (i.e., a constant exploitation rate [ U ] of 10%) and the performance of alternative harvest control rules in meeting fishery objectives. Success in meeting fishery objectives was evaluated through attained yields, interannual variation in yields, magnitude of spawning stock biomass (SB), and the risk of reaching low SB—performance metrics established based on consultation with an advisory group to Lake Superior fishery managers. Our simulations explicitly accounted for uncertainty in the frequency of strong year‐classes being produced by Cisco, the stock–recruit relationship, stock abundance, and the sex‐specific nature of roe harvest. Assuming that future productivity is similar to the productivity observed over the period from 1985 to 2015, results suggest that the current U of 10% is sustainable in terms of maintaining SB above 20% of the unfished level. Variants of constant U control rules that included thresholds defining when U is to decrease as a function of SB increased yield, decreased risk, and increased the magnitude of SB at the end of the simulation period. However, these advantages came at the expense of greater interannual variation in yield. Constant catch control rules greatly underperformed constant U control rules in terms of magnitude in yield; however, they did reduce interannual variation in yield compared to constant U control rules. Furthermore, conditional versions of constant catch control rules (i.e., threshold stock sizes below which the catch limit was reduced) mitigated risks of staying at low stock size.

Thunder Bay↗

USGS2023

Global responses to the COVID-19 pandemic by recreational anglers: Considerations for developing more resilient and sustainable fisheries

The global COVID-19 pandemic resulted in many jurisdictions implementing orders restricting the movements of people to inhibit virus transmission, with recreational angling often either not permitted or access to fisheries and/or related infrastructure being prevented. Following the lifting of restrictions, initial angler surveys and licence sales suggested increased participation and effort, and altered angler demographics, but with evidence remaining limited. Here, we overcome this evidence gap by identifying temporal changes in angling interest, licence sales, and angling effort in world regions by comparing data in the ‘pre-pandemic’ (up to and including 2019); ‘acute pandemic’ (2020) and ‘COVID-acclimated’ (2021) periods. We then identified how changes can inform the development of more resilient and sustainable recreational fisheries. Interest in angling (measured here as angling-related internet search term volumes) increased substantially in all regions during 2020. Patterns in licence sales revealed marked increases in some countries during 2020 but not in others. Where licence sales increased, this was rarely sustained in 2021; where there were declines, these related to fewer tourist anglers due to movement restrictions. Data from most countries indicated a younger demographic of people who participated in angling in 2020, including in urban areas, but this was not sustained in 2021. These short-lived changes in recreational angling indicate efforts to retain younger anglers could increase overall participation levels, where efforts can target education in appropriate angling practices and create more urban angling opportunities. These efforts would then provide recreational fisheries with greater resilience to cope with future global crises, including facilitating the ability of people to access angling opportunities during periods of high societal stress.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries↗

USGS2023

Positive but un-sustained wildlife community responses to reserve expansion and mammal reintroductions in South Africa

The creation and expansion of protected areas, coupled with wildlife reintroductions, are increasingly used as conservation measures to combat wildlife declines worldwide. Although these types of restoration efforts are expected be beneficial to wildlife populations, variable species management and interactions among species within complex food webs have the potential to lead to unintended species-specific responses to reserve expansion which can counteract the anticipated positive effects. We used a multi-season camera trap study to investigate community-wide responses of wildlife to a reserve expansion and associated wildlife releases in South Africa. We analyzed the camera trap data using community occupancy and N-mixture models to assess how the occupancy and intensity of use of individual species changed in the four seasons following reserve expansion. We found species-specific responses to reserve expansion, although responses were generally positive in occupancy and intensity of use but un-sustained. The apex predator, the lion ( Panthera leo ) and the majority of managed herbivores exhibited sustained or delayed positive responses, whereas most subordinate predators and unmanaged herbivores had short-lived, fluctuating, or neutral responses. Interactive effects of top-down suppression, competitive pressure, and increased space and food resources likely resulted in the temporally-variable responses of most species. Although no species responded negatively to reserve expansion and mammal reintroductions, the lack of sustained positive responses for most species indicates the complexities of implementing conservation actions to benefit multiple wildlife species. Our results highlight the importance of monitoring the entire wildlife community following management actions such as reserve expansion or wildlife reintroductions.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2012

Evaluation of carbon fluxes and trends (2000-2008) in the Greater Platte River Basin: a sustainability study on the potential biofuel feedstock development

This study evaluates the carbon fluxes and trends and examines the environmental sustainability (e.g., carbon budget, source or sink) of the potential biofuel feedstock sites identified in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB). A 9-year (2000–2008) time series of net ecosystem production (NEP), a measure of net carbon absorption or emission by ecosystems, was used to assess the historical trends and budgets of carbon flux for grasslands in the GPRB. The spatially averaged annual NEP (ANEP) for grassland areas that are possibly suitable for biofuel expansion (productive grasslands) was 71–169 g C m −2 year −1 during 2000–2008, indicating a carbon sink (more carbon is absorbed than released) in these areas. The spatially averaged ANEP for areas not suitable for biofuel feedstock development (less productive or degraded grasslands) was −47 to 69 g C m −2 year −1 during 2000–2008, showing a weak carbon source or a weak carbon sink (carbon emitted is nearly equal to carbon absorbed). The 9-year pre-harvest cumulative ANEP was 1166 g C m −2 for the suitable areas (a strong carbon sink) and 200 g C m −2 for the non-suitable areas (a weak carbon sink). Results demonstrate and confirm that our method of dynamic modeling of ecosystem performance can successfully identify areas desirable and sustainable for future biofuel feedstock development. This study provides useful information for land managers and decision makers to make optimal land use decisions regarding biofuel feedstock development and sustainability.

Biomass and Bioenergy↗

USGS2019

Mississippi river sediment diversions and coastal wetland sustainability: Synthesis of responses to freshwater, sediment, and nutrient inputs

Management and restoration of coastal wetlands require insight into how inundation, salinity, and the availability of mineral sediment and nutrients interact to influence ecosystem functions that control sustainability. The Mississippi River Delta, which ranks among the world's largest and most productive coastal wetland complexes, has experienced extensive deterioration over the last century due, in large part, to enhanced vulnerability to relative sea-level rise and lateral erosion caused by a combination of natural processes and anthropogenic modifications of hydrology. This land loss crisis has prompted the State of Louisiana to develop a comprehensive restoration plan that includes constructing and implementing a series of large-scale sediment diversions that will reconnect sediment- and nutrient-rich Mississippi River water to adjacent bays, estuaries, and wetlands. Sediment loading through diversions is predicted to enhance the long-term sustainability of coastal wetlands; however, the additive effects of increased inundation, abrubt changes in the salinity regime, and high nutrient loads on wetland plant growth and organic matter (SOM) decomposition rates, which help regulate accretion and elevation change, is uncertain. Therefore, this review attempts to synthesize existing information to inform predictions of the interactive effects of diversions on these drivers of coastal wetland sustainability. The data suggest that sediment deposition within an optimal elevation range will increase the overall productivity of existing wetlands where prolonged flooding does not counter this effect by limiting plant growth. A reduction in salinity may increase plant productivity and cause vegetation shifts to less salt tolerant species, but seasonal swings in salinity may have unforeseen consequences. Nutrient-loading is predicted to lead to greater aboveground productivity, which, in turn, can facilitate additional sediment trapping; however, belowground productivity may decline, particularly in areas where sediment deposition is limited. In areas experiencing net deposition, nutrient-enrichment is predicted to enhance belowground growth into new sediment and contribute to positive effects on soil organic matter accumulation, accretion, and elevation change. Thus, we contend that sediment input is essential for limiting the negative effects of flooding and nutrient-enrichment on wetland processes. These conclusions are generally supported by the biophysical feedbacks occurring in existing prograding deltas of the Mississippi River Delta complex.

Louisiana↗

USGS2017

Assessing the influence of sustainable trail design and maintenance on soil loss

Natural-surfaced trail systems are an important infrastructure component providing a means for accessing remote protected natural area destinations. The condition and usability of trails is a critical concern of land managers charged with providing recreational access while preserving natural conditions, and to visitors seeking high quality recreational opportunities and experiences. While an adequate number of trail management publications provide prescriptive guidance for designing, constructing, and maintaining natural-surfaced trails, surprisingly little research has been directed at providing a scientific basis for this guidance. Results from a review of the literature and three scientific studies are presented to model and clarify the influence of factors that substantially influence trail soil loss and that can be manipulated by trail professionals to sustain high traffic while minimizing soil loss over time. Key factors include trail grade, slope alignment angle, tread drainage features, and the amount of rock in tread substrates. A new Trail Sustainability Rating is developed and offered as a tool for evaluating or improving the sustainability of existing or new trails.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2021

Modeling areal measures of campsite impacts on the Appalachian National Scenic Trail to enhance ecological sustainability

Campsite impacts in protected natural areas are most effectively minimized by a containment strategy that focuses use on a limited number of sustainable campsites that spatially concentrate camping activities. This research employs spatial autoregressive (SAR) modeling to evaluate the relative influence of use-related, environmental, and managerial factors on two salient measures of campsite impact. Relational analyses examined numerous field-collected and GIS-derived indicators, including several new indicators calculated using high-resolution Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) topographic data to evaluate the influence of terrain characteristics on the dependent variables. Chosen variables in the best SAR models explained 35% and 30% of the variation in campsite size and area of vegetation loss on campsites. Results identified three key indicators that managers can manipulate to enhance the sustainability of campsites: campsite type, and terrain characteristics relating to landform slope and topographic roughness. Results support indirect management methods that rely on the location, design, construction, and maintenance of campsites, instead of direct regulations that restrict visitation or visitor freedoms. As visitation pressures continue to increase, this knowledge can be applied to select and promote the use of more ecologically sustainable campsites.

Connecticut, Georgia, Maine, Maryland, Massachuset↗

USGS2022

Local environment and individuals’ beliefs: The dynamics shaping public support for sustainability policy in an agricultural landscape

Agricultural landscapes are the bleeding-edge in the advancement of sustainability and climate change adaptation. Our study focuses on how individual support for sustainability policy is shaped in coupled natural and human systems. We present an agent-based model in which a cultural decision-rule quantifies the probability that a stakeholder decides to support an easement policy for a region in the Central Great Plains, USA. Our model defines a cultural threshold used to assess how culturally meaningful the policy is for each stakeholder. The individual cultural threshold is estimated using the value-belief-norm framework and is modified by perceived changes in the environment. Results demonstrated that few stakeholders support the policy in the average cultural setting (8.9%). However, enough stakeholders would support the policy under a lower cultural threshold (40.7%). Our results indicate that sustainability policies do not need to be cheap if they are culturally meaningful.

Kansas↗

USGS2020

Identifying sustainable winter habitat for whooping cranes

The only self-sustaining population of endangered whooping cranes ( Grus americana ) requires a network of conservation lands for wintering along the Texas Gulf Coast (USA), so that this increasing population can reach downlisting under the Endangered Species Act (1,000 birds). We identify locations providing the highest quality and most sustainable wintering habitat for these whooping cranes through 2100 by predicting future habitats under three projections of sea level rise (0.6, 1.0 and 2.0 m by 2100), while incorporating two scenarios of future urban development. Our method combines predictions of future habitat quality with current whooping crane density estimates to calculate the potential carrying capacity of whooping cranes for each 10 m pixel within this 17,725 km 2 area. We found whooping cranes used locations with salt marsh at twice the rate of places lacking marsh. Areas > 15 km from development or < 2 km from estuarine water had increased crane use. Predicted area of salt marsh habitat oscillated across time given different rates of sea level rise. One urbanization scenario predicted 3% and the other 1% of the area converting to development by 2100. We estimated the study area can support 4414 (95% CI: 4096-4789) whooping cranes currently, 4795 (95% CI: 4402-5269) with 0.6 m sea level rise, 3559 (95% CI: 3352-3791) with 1 m sea level rise, and 2480 (95% CI: 2375-2592) with 2 m sea level rise by 2100, under the more aggressive urban development scenario. By anticipating climate-induced habitat loss with species population expansion we provide the requisite spatial information for conservation planners to build a sustainable conservation estate for downlisting whooping cranes. By coupling wildlife biology with conservation planning and on-the-ground implementation, our work exemplifies a proactive approach to recover endangered species.

Texas↗

USGS2019

Evaluating environmental change and behavioral decision-making for sustainability policy using an agent-based model: A case study for the Smoky Hill River Watershed, Kansas

Sustainability has been at the forefront of the environmental research agenda of the integrated anthroposphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere since the last century and will continue to be critically important for future environmental science. However, linking humans and the environment through effective policy remains a major challenge for sustainability research and practice. Here we address this gap using an agent-based model (ABM) for a coupled natural and human systems in the Smoky Hill River Watershed (SHRW), Kansas, USA. For this freshwater-dependent agricultural watershed with a highly variable flow regime influenced by human-induced land-use and climate change, we tested the support for an environmental policy designed to conserve and protect fish biodiversity in the SHRW. We develop a proof of concept interdisciplinary ABM that integrates field data on hydrology, ecology (fish richness), social-psychology (value-belief-norm) and economics, to simulate human agents' decisions to support environmental policy. The mechanism to link human behaviors to environmental changes is the social-psychological sequence identified by the value-belief-norm framework and is informed by hydrological and fish ecology models. Our results indicate that (1) cultural factors influence the decision to support the policy; (2) a mechanism modifying social-psychological factors can influence the decision-making process; (3) there is resistance to environmental policy in the SHRW, even under potentially extreme climate conditions; and (4) the best opportunities for policy acceptance were found immediately after extreme environmental events. The modeling approach presented herein explicitly links biophysical and social science has broad generality for sustainability problems.

Kansas↗

USGS2024

Mass-balance-consistent geological stock accounting: A new approach toward sustainable management of mineral resources

Global resource extraction raises concerns about environmental pressures and the security of mineral supply. Strategies to address these concerns depend on robust information on natural resource endowments, and on suitable methods to monitor and model their changes over time. However, current mineral resources and reserves reporting and accounting workflows are poorly suited for addressing mineral depletion or answering questions about the long-term sustainable supply. Our integrative review finds that the lack of a robust theoretical concept and framework for mass-balance (MB)-consistent geological stock accounting hinders systematic industry-government data integration, resource governance, and strategy development. We evaluate the existing literature on geological stock accounting, identify shortcomings of current monitoring of mine production, and outline a conceptual framework for MB-consistent system integration based on material flow analysis (MFA). Our synthesis shows that recent developments in Earth observation, geoinformation management, and sustainability reporting act as catalysts that make MB-consistent geological stock accounting increasingly feasible. We propose first steps for its implementation and anticipate that our perspective as “resource realists” will facilitate the integration of geological and anthropogenic material systems, help secure future mineral supply, and support the global sustainability transition.

Environmental Science and Technology↗

USGS2024

Transdisciplinary research supports the sustainability of barrier island systems threatened by climate change

The management of developed barrier islands is often piece-meal and reactionary despite the complex, dynamic nature of these systems, and sustainable practices will become increasingly difficult due to heightened pressures of climate change. Adaptation actions, including nature-based solutions, need to be thoroughly evaluated prior to implementation to understand system-wide impacts and avoid maladaptation. Anarde et al. (2024a), ( https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef003672 ), Anarde et al. (2024b), ( https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef004200 ) is the latest important contribution in a growing body of transdisciplinary research that more robustly evaluates the complex physical process-and-response relationship of barrier systems via sophisticated numerical modeling approaches that also interface with socioeconomic models to inform coastal management actions in response to mitigating coastal risk. This new research indicates the importance of coordinated system-scale barrier island management, as strategies to reduce coastal hazard risk in one location will directly affect adjacent communities. Further, this work demonstrates that reducing barrier management interventions may actually promote barrier recovery and sustainability in the face of sea level rise. In addition, recent advances in the analysis and application of remotely sensed data from satellites and oblique aerial photography provide scientists an unprecedented opportunity to track coastal evolution over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales at minimal cost. As sea level rise and changing storm patterns challenge the sustainable management of barrier island systems, integrating these advanced, transdisciplinary tools will enable scientists and coastal practitioners to more thoroughly evaluate coastal adaptation options, efficiently invest limited resources to mitigate coastal hazard risk for communities, support healthy ecosystems, and reduce system-wide impacts.

Earth's Future↗