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At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2011

Building on crossvalidation for increasing the quality of geostatistical modeling

The random function is a mathematical model commonly used in the assessment of uncertainty associated with a spatially correlated attribute that has been partially sampled. There are multiple algorithms for modeling such random functions, all sharing the requirement of specifying various parameters that have critical influence on the results. The importance of finding ways to compare the methods and setting parameters to obtain results that better model uncertainty has increased as these algorithms have grown in number and complexity. Crossvalidation has been used in spatial statistics, mostly in kriging, for the analysis of mean square errors. An appeal of this approach is its ability to work with the same empirical sample available for running the algorithms. This paper goes beyond checking estimates by formulating a function sensitive to conditional bias. Under ideal conditions, such function turns into a straight line, which can be used as a reference for preparing measures of performance. Applied to kriging, deviations from the ideal line provide sensitivity to the semivariogram lacking in crossvalidation of kriging errors and are more sensitive to conditional bias than analyses of errors. In terms of stochastic simulation, in addition to finding better parameters, the deviations allow comparison of the realizations resulting from the applications of different methods. Examples show improvements of about 30% in the deviations and approximately 10% in the square root of mean square errors between reasonable starting modelling and the solutions according to the new criteria.

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessm↗
USGS2008

Water balance models in one-month-ahead streamflow forecasting

T echniques are tested that incorporate information from water balance models in making 1-month-ahead streamflow forecasts in New Jersey. The results are compared to those based on simple autoregressive time series models. The relative performance of the models is dependent on the month of the year in question. The water balance models are most useful for forecasts of April and May flows. For the stations in northern New Jersey, the April and May forecasts were made in order of decreasing reliability using the water-balance-based approaches, using the historical monthly means, and using simple autoregressive models. The water balance models were useful to a lesser extent for forecasts during the fall months. For the rest of the year the improvements in forecasts over those obtained using the simpler autoregressive models were either very small or the simpler models provided better forecasts. When using the water balance models, monthly corrections for bias are found to improve minimum mean-square-error forecasts as well as to improve estimates of the forecast conditional distributions.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2024

Seabed maps showing topography, ruggedness, backscatter intensity, sediment mobility, and the distribution of geologic substrates in quadrangle 5 of the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary region offshore of Boston, Massachusetts

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Marine Sanctuary Program of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has conducted seabed mapping and related research in the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary (SBNMS) region since 1993. The area being mapped using geophysical and geological data includes the SBNMS and the surrounding region, which totals approximately 3,700 square kilometers (km 2 ) and is subdivided into 18 quadrangles. The seabed is a glaciated terrain that is topographically and texturally diverse. Quadrangle 5, the subject of this scientific investigations map, has an area of 211 km 2 and has water depths that range from 23 meters (m) on the Stellwagen Bank crest to 105 m in the Stellwagen Basin. Seven map types, each at a scale of 1:25,000, depict seabed topography, ruggedness, backscatter intensity, distribution of geologic substrates, sediment mobility, distribution of fine- and coarse-grained sand, and substrate mud content. These maps show the distribution of geologic substrates on the crest and western flank of the south-central part of Stellwagen Bank and in Stellwagen Basin to the west. Interpretations of multibeam sonar bathymetric and seabed backscatter imagery, photographs, video imagery, and grain-size analyses were used to create the geology-based maps. Data from 729 stations were analyzed, including 620 sediment samples. The geologic substrate maps of quadrangle 5 show the distribution of 20 substrates that represent a wide range of textures, such as mobile and rippled sand, immobile sand, sand that partially veneers gravel, boulder ridges, and mud. Mapped substrates are characterized by sediment grain-size composition, surface morphology, substrate layering, the mobility or immobility of substrate surfaces, and water depth range. This scientific investigations map portrays the major geological elements (substrates, topographic features, and processes) of environments in quadrangle 5. It is intended to provide a foundation for research into present and past sediment transport processes in a complex terrain, provide insights into the ecological requirements of invertebrate and vertebrate species that utilize the various substrates, and to support seabed management in the region.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2024

Seabed maps showing topography, ruggedness, backscatter intensity, sediment mobility, and the distribution of geologic substrates in quadrangle 2 of the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary region offshore of Boston, Massachusetts

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Marine Sanctuary Program of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has conducted seabed mapping and related research in the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary (SBNMS) region since 1993. The area being mapped using geophysical and geological data includes the SBNMS and the surrounding region, which totals approximately 3,700 square kilometers (km 2 ) and is subdivided into 18 quadrangles. The seabed is a glaciated terrain that is topographically and texturally diverse. Quadrangle 2, the subject of this scientific investigations map, has a mapped area of 209 km 2 and has water depths that range from about 19 meters (m) on the Stellwagen Bank crest to about 68 m in the Stellwagen Basin. Seven map types, each at a scale of 1:25,000, depict seabed topography, ruggedness, backscatter intensity, distribution of geologic substrates, sediment mobility, distribution of fine- and coarse-grained sand, and substrate mud content. These maps show the distribution of geologic substrates across the southwestern part of Stellwagen Bank, in Stellwagen Basin to the west and southwest of the bank, and in Little Stellwagen Basin and the western part of Race Point Channel to the south of the bank. Interpretations of multibeam sonar bathymetric and seabed backscatter imagery, photographs, video imagery, and grain-size analyses were used to create the geology-based maps. Data from 733 stations were analyzed, including 656 sediment samples. The geologic substrate maps of quadrangle 2 show the distribution of 19 geologic substrates that represent a wide range of textures, such as rippled and immobile sand, immobile muddy sand and sandy mud, sand that partially veneers gravel, and a boulder ridge. Mapped substrates are characterized by sediment grain-size composition, surface morphology, substrate layering, the mobility or immobility of substrate surfaces, and water depth range. This scientific investigations map portrays the major geological elements (substrates, topographic features, and processes) of environments in quadrangle 2. It is intended to provide a foundation for research into present and past sediment transport processes in a complex terrain, provide insights into the ecological requirements of invertebrate and vertebrate species that utilize the various substrates, and support seabed management in the region.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2026

Seabed maps showing topography, ruggedness, backscatter intensity, sediment mobility, and the distribution of geologic substrates in quadrangle 3 of the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary region offshore of Boston, Massachusetts

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Marine Sanctuary Program of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has conducted seabed mapping and related research in the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary (SBNMS) region since 1993. The area being mapped using geophysical and geological data includes the SBNMS and the surrounding region, which totals approximately 3,700 square kilometers (km 2 ) and is subdivided into 18 quadrangles. The seabed is a glaciated terrain that is topographically and texturally diverse. Quadrangle 3, the subject of this scientific investigations map, has a mapped area of 185 km 2 and has water depths that range from about 30 meters (m) on the Stellwagen Bank crest to about 135 m in a basin east of South Ninety Bank, which lies off the eastern margin of Stellwagen Bank. Seven map types, each at a scale of 1:25,000, depict seabed topography, ruggedness, backscatter intensity, distribution of geologic substrates, sediment mobility, distribution of fine- and coarse-grained sand, and substrate mud content. These maps show the distribution of geologic substrates on the southeastern part of Stellwagen Bank, on adjacent banks and basins in deeper water to the east, in the eastern part of Race Point Channel to the south of the bank, and on the northern slope of Cape Cod. Interpretations of multibeam sonar bathymetric and seabed backscatter imagery, photographs, video imagery, and grain-size analyses were used to create the geology-based maps. Data from 309 stations were analyzed, including 279 sediment samples. The geologic substrate maps of quadrangle 3 show the distribution of 21 geologic substrates that represent a wide range of textures, such as rippled sand, immobile sand, immobile muddy sand, sand that partially veneers gravel, and boulder ridges. Mapped substrates are characterized by sediment grain-size composition, surface morphology, substrate layering, the mobility or immobility of substrate surfaces, and water depth range. This scientific investigations map portrays the major geological elements (substrates, topographic features, and processes) of environments in quadrangle 3. It is intended to provide a foundation for research into present and past sediment transport processes in a complex terrain, provide insights into the ecological requirements of invertebrate and vertebrate species that use the various substrates, and support seabed management in the region.

Quadrangle 3 of the Stellwagen Bank National Marin↗
USGS2002

Modeling the bathymetry of Catahoula Lake: Specialized technology for wetland management

Catahoula Lake is the largest natural freshwater lake in Louisiana, covering more than 46 square miles (120 km2) (fig. 1). The lake is a principal stopover and wintering site for hundreds of thousands of migratory waterfowl and shorebirds. Scientists from the USGS National Wetlands Research Center are applying some of the research facility's specialties?wetland plant research, aerial and ground surveys, digital mapping, and computer modeling?to facilitate wetland management at Catahoula Lake.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS1985

DATA ACQUISITION AND APPLICATIONS OF SIDE-LOOKING AIRBORNE RADAR IN THE U. S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY.

The Side-Looking Airborne Radar (SLAR) program encompasses a multi-discipline effort involving geologists, hydrologists, engineers, geographers, and cartographers of the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS). Since the program began in 1980, more than 520,000 square miles of aerial coverage of SLAR data in the conterminous United States and Alaska have been acquired or contracted for acquisition. The Geological Survey has supported more than 60 research and applications projects addressing the use of this technology in the earth sciences since 1980. These projects have included preparation of lithographic reproductions of SLAR mosaics, research to improve the cartographic uses of SLAR, research for use of SLAR in assessing earth hazards, and studies using SLAR for energy and mineral exploration through improved geologic mapping.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2002

Preliminary geophysical characterization of two oil production sites, Osage County, Oklahoma - Osage Skiatook Petroleum Environmental Research Project

Ground electromagnetic and dc resistivity geophysical surveys were used to interpret the subsurface distribution of salinized soil, water, and bedrock at two sites (A and B) and to characterize the larger scale hydrologic setting. Measurements were made on grids of about 1000 square meters using a very shallow penetrating (less than 10 m) electromagnetic (EM) geophysical system (EM31). At site A, high subsurface conductivities (more than 100 millisiemens per meter) found below disposal ponds extended down the local hydrologic gradient to below the normal level of near by Lake Skiatook. At site B, areas of highest subsurface electrical conductivity were offset about 10 m from the center of salt scars. The area of high subsurface electrical conductivity extends in the subsurface below the normal level of Skiatook Lake. DC resistivity soundings were made in and around the two sites in order to characterize deeper (30-60 m) electrical properties of the subsurface lithology and ground water. These soundings indicate that the tight shale that dominates the local lithology is moderately electrically conductive (5 milliseimems per meter). DC soundings done in several areas at the Skiatook Lake shoreline indicate an electrically conductive (less than 10 millisiemens per meter) zone exists below the shore even away from the oil production sites. This conductive zone may indicate a mixing between fresh lake water and local ground water that has high dissolved solids. Borehole geophysical logs at site B and laboratory rock property measurements are currently being used to refine interpretation of ground geophysical measurements.

Oklahoma↗
USGS2013

2010 Joint United States-Canadian Program to explore the limits of the Extended Continental Shelf aboard U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Healy--Cruise HLY1002

In August and September 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Natural Resources Canada, Geological Survey of Canada, conducted bathymetric and geophysical surveys in the Beaufort Sea and eastern Arctic Ocean aboard the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Healy. The principal objective of this mission to the high Arctic was to acquire data in support of a delineation of the outer limits of the U.S. and Canadian Extended Continental Shelf in the Arctic Ocean, in accordance with the provisions of Article 76 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. The Healy was accompanied by the Canadian Coast Guard icebreaker Louis S. St-Laurent. The scientific parties on board the two vessels consisted principally of staff from the U.S. Geological Survey (Healy), and the Geological Survey of Canada and the Canadian Hydrographic Service (Louis). The crew also included marine-mammal observers, Native-community observers, ice observers, and biologists conducting research of opportunity in the Arctic Ocean. Despite interruptions necessitated by three medical emergencies, the joint survey proved largely successful. The Healy collected 7,201 trackline-kilometers of swath (multibeam) bathymetry (47,663 square kilometers) and CHIRP subbottom data, with accompanying marine gravity measurements, and expendable bathythermograph data. The Louis acquired 3,673 trackline-kilometers of multichannel seismic (airgun) deep-penetration reflection data along 25 continuous profiles, as well as 34 sonobuoy refraction stations and 9,500 trackline-kilometers of single-beam bathymetry. The coordinated efforts of the two vessels resulted in seismic-reflection-profile data that were of much higher quality and continuity than if the data had been acquired with a single vessel alone. The equipment-failure rate of the seismic equipment aboard the Louis was greatly reduced when the Healy led as the ice breaker. When ice conditions proved too severe to deploy the seismic system, the Louis led the Healy, resulting in much improved quality of the swath bathymetric and CHIRP subbottom data in comparison with data collected either by the Healy in the lead or the Healy working alone. During periods when the Healy was operating alone (principally when the Louis was diverted for emergency medical evacuations or ship repairs), the Healy was able to deploy a piston-core-sampler (10 meters maximum potential recovery depending on configuration). The coring operations resulted in recovery of cores at five locations ranging from 2.4 to 5.7 meters in length from water depths ranging from 1,157 to 3,700 meters. One of these cores sited on the Alaskan margin recovered the first reported occurrence of methane hydrate from the Arctic Ocean. Ancillary science objectives, including ice observations and deployment of ice-monitoring buoys and water-column sampling to measure acidification of Arctic waters were successfully conducted. The water-column sampling included using 10 full-ocean-depth, water-sampling casts with accompanying conductivity-temperature-depth measurements. Except for the data deemed proprietary, data from the cruise have been archived and are available for download at the National Geophysical Data Center and at cooperating organizations. Outreach staff and guest teachers aboard the two vessels provided near-real-time connection between the research activities and the public through online blogs, web pages, and other media.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2011

Infectious diseases in Yellowstone’s canid community

Each summer Yellowstone Wolf Project staff visit den sites to monitor the success of wolf reproduction and pup rearing behavior. For the purposes of wolf monitoring, Yellowstone National Park (YNP) is divided into two study areas, the northern range and the interior, each distinguished by their ecological and physiographical differences. The 1,000 square kilometer northern range, characterized by lower elevations (1,500–2,200 m), serves as prime winter habitat for ungulates and supports a higher density of wolves than the interior (20–99 wolves/1,000 km 2 versus 2–11 wolves/1,000 km 2 ). The interior of the park encompasses 7,991 square kilometers, is higher in elevation, receives higher annual snowfall, and generally supports lower densities of wolves and ungulates. During the Yellowstone Wolf Project’s 2005 observations on the northern range, researchers noticed that some wolf pups were disappearing and those that remained were unusually listless. The Slough Creek pups, at first numbering 18, dwindled to three survivors. Similar findings were mirrored at other den sites across the northern range. When annual den surveys were conducted in late July, all that remained were scattered piles of bones and fur. Coyotes suffered similar setbacks in 2005, with many of the survivors exhibiting neurological shakes and tremors. The park’s canids had been affected by something, but what? Prompted by what seemed to be a disease outbreak, the Yellowstone Wolf Project, the Yellowstone Ecological Research Center (YERC), and the University of Minnesota decided to take several collaborative approaches toward improving our understanding of the presence and role of infectious disease in Yellowstone’s canid community. Several serological studies have been conducted in the past among the park’s coyotes (Gese et al. 1997) and cougars (Biek 2006), providing a helpful foundation on which to build and compare. A serological survey was conducted, using serum samples collected during routine wolf and coyote captures over a period of 18 years (Almberg et al. 2009). Simulation models were used to explore the dynamics of canine distemper virus (Almberg et al. 2010)—one of the more prominent pathogens in terms of its effects on its hosts—and several long-term pathogen surveillance projects were initiated which are intended to someday provide a foundation for more advanced genetic-based analyses of pathogen dynamics. Since these initial efforts, the group has also expanded the research to include a study of sarcoptic mange, which began affecting wolves and coyotes in YNP in 2006 and 2007.

Yellowstone National Park↗
USGS2026

Stacked machine learning for timber identification with laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS)

This study presents a new approach to wood species identification using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) combined with stacked machine learning techniques. The research analyzed 700 samples comprising nine Dalbergia species and nine additional tropical timber species, utilizing a handheld LIBS analyzer. A stacking methodology was developed by integrating three support vector machine (SVM) models with different kernel functions (linear, polynomial, and radial) in a one-versus-all (OVA) configuration. These SVM outputs were then combined using a partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) meta-learner. Through PCA-based variable selection, the dimensionality was reduced from 23 401 to wavelengths while maintaining classification accuracy. The stacking approach achieved a Cohen's kappa value of 0.8671 in the validation set, significantly outperforming traditional flat classifiers. Variable importance analysis revealed calcium, magnesium, and barium as crucial elements for species differentiation, with their concentrations reflecting environmental conditions and geographical origins. This research demonstrates the potential of combining LIBS spectroscopy with advanced machine learning techniques for rapid, non-invasive timber identification, which can support efforts against illegal logging and enforcement of international trade regulations.

Applied Spectroscopy↗
USGS2016

Ecosystem vulnerability to climate change in the southeastern United States

Two recent investigations of climate-change vulnerability for 19 terrestrial, aquatic, riparian, and coastal ecosystems of the southeastern United States have identified a number of important considerations, including potential for changes in hydrology, disturbance regimes, and interspecies interactions. Complementary approaches using geospatial analysis and literature synthesis integrated information on ecosystem biogeography and biodiversity, climate projections, vegetation dynamics, soil and water characteristics, anthropogenic threats, conservation status, sea-level rise, and coastal flooding impacts. Across a diverse set of ecosystems—ranging in size from dozens of square meters to thousands of square kilometers—quantitative and qualitative assessments identified types of climate-change exposure, evaluated sensitivity, and explored potential adaptive capacity. These analyses highlighted key gaps in scientific understanding and suggested priorities for future research. Together, these studies help create a foundation for ecosystem-level analysis of climate-change vulnerability to support effective biodiversity conservation in the southeastern United States.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Lou↗
USGS1999

Selected nutrients and pesticides in streams of the eastern Iowa basins, 1970-95

Water-quality data from 17 surface-water monitoring sites were compiled for 1970 through 1995 and analyzed to determine historical waterquality conditions and possible trends in the Eastern Iowa Basins study unit as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program. The Eastern Iowa Basins encompasses the Wapsipinicon, Cedar, Iowa, and Skunk River Basins and covers about 19,500 square miles. Seven of the monitoring sites were sampled by the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, three sites by the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, three sites by the University of Iowa Institute for Hydraulic Research, and four sites by the U.S. Geological Survey. Water-quality analyses typically consisted of nitrate, ammonia, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus, with limited analyses available for organic nitrogen, dissolved phosphorus, dissolved orthophosphate, and water-soluble pesticides. Long-term historical nutrient and pesticide data were not available for the Wapsipinicon River Basin. Median concentrations for total nitrogen ranged from 4.6 to 9.4 milligrams per liter, and maximum concentrations of total nitrogen ranged from 4.6 to 31 milligrams per liter. The majority of nitrogen transported in surface waters of the Eastern Iowa Basins study unit is in the form of nitrate (nitrogen). Median concentrations of total phosphorus ranged from less than 0.10 to 0.66 milligram per liter, and maximum concentrations of total phosphorus ranged from less than 0.10 to 5.4 milligrams per liter. Nitrate varied seasonally. Median concentrations of nitrate were largest during the spring and the winter (6.0 to 7.0 milligrams per liter) compared to the summer and fall (2.0 to 4.0 milligrams per liter). Concentrations of nitrate greater than 10 milligrams per liter typically occurred during spring runoff. Median ammonia concentrations generally were highest during the winter (approximately 0.3-0.5 milligram per liter) compared to the spring and summer when ammonia concentrations were often close to the detection limit (0.01 milligram per liter). In general, the median concentrations of total phosphorus varied less than 0.1 milligram per liter between seasons. The statistical analysis of the nutrient data typically indicated a strong positive correlation of nitrate with streamflow. Total phosphorus concentrations with streamflow showed greater variability than nitrate, perhaps reflecting the greater potential of transport of phosphorus on sediment rather than in the dissolved phase as with nitrate. Ammonia and ammonia plus organic nitrogen showed no correlation with streamflow or a weak positive correlation. Seasonal variations and the relations of nutrients and pesticides to streamflow generally corresponded with nonpoint‑source loadings, although possible point sources for nutrients were indicated by the data at selected monitoring sites. Statistical trend tests for concentrations and loads were computed for nitrate, ammonia, and total phosphorus. Trend analysis indicated decreases for ammonia and total phosphorus concentrations at several sites and increases for nitrate concentrations at other sites in the study unit.

Iowa, Minnesota↗
USGS2018

Time-dependent pore filling

Capillarity traps fluids in porous media during immiscible fluid displacement. Most field situations involve relatively long time scales, such as hydrocarbon migration into reservoirs, resource recovery, nonaqueous phase liquid remediation, geological CO 2 storage, and sediment‐atmosphere interactions. Yet laboratory studies and numerical simulations of capillary phenomena rarely consider the impact of time on these processes. We use time‐lapse microphotography to record the evolution of saturation in air‐ or hydrocarbon‐filled capillary tubes submerged in water to investigate long‐term pore filling phenomena beyond imbibition. Microphotographic sequences capture a lively pore filling history where various concurrent physical phenomena coexist. Dissolution and diffusion play a central role. Observations indicate preferential transport of the wetting liquid along corners, vapor condensation, capillary flow induced by asymmetrical interfaces, and interface pinning that defines the diffusion length. Other processes include internal snap‐offs, fluid redistribution, and changes in wettability as fluids dissolve into each other. Overall, the rate of pore filling is diffusion‐controlled for a given interfacial configuration; diffusive transport takes place at a constant rate for pinned interfaces and is proportional to the square root of time for free interfaces where the diffusion length increases with time.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2017

Coastal single-beam bathymetry data collected in 2015 from Raccoon Point to Point Au Fer Island, Louisiana

As part of the Barrier Island Comprehensive Monitoring Program (BICM), scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center conducted a nearshore single-beam bathymetry survey along the south-central coast of Louisiana, from Raccoon Point to Point Au Fer Island, in July 2015. The goal of the BICM program is to provide long-term data on Louisiana’s coastline and use this data to plan, design, evaluate, and maintain current and future barrier island restoration projects. The data described in this report will provide baseline bathymetric information for future research investigating island evolution, sediment transport, and recent and long-term geomorphic change, and will support modeling of future changes in response to restoration and storm impacts. The survey area encompasses more than 300 square kilometers of nearshore environment from Raccoon Point to Point Au Fer Island. This data series serves as an archive of processed single-beam bathymetry data, collected from July 22–29, 2015, under USGS Field Activity Number 2015-320-FA. Geographic information system data products include a 200-meter-cell-size interpolated bathymetry grid, trackline maps, and point data files. Additional files include error analysis maps, Field Activity Collection System logs, and formal Federal Geographic Data Committee metadata.

Louisiana↗
USGS1975

Dynamics of turbidity plumes in Lake Ontario

Large-turbidity features along the 275-kilometre long south shore of Lake Ontario were analyzed using LANDSAT-1 images. The ESIAC system developed by the Stanford Research Institute, was used to obtain enlargements and false-color renditions of turbidity plumes. After projection on a video screen, individual turbidity features were analyzed, mapped, and photographed. The Niagara River plume, as much as 500 square kilometres in area, is by far, the largest turbidity feature in the lake. Based on image tonal comparisons, turbidity in the Welland Canal is usually higher than that in any other watercourse discharging into the lake throughout the shipping season. Somewhat less turbid water enters the lake from the Port Dalhousie diversion channel and the Genesee River. Relatively clear water resulting from the deposition of suspended matter in numerous upstream lakes is discharged by the Niagara and Oswego rivers. Plume analysis corroborates the presence of a prevailing eastward flowing longshore current along the entire south shore. This current is most persistent at the Oswego River outlet but is quite variable in the Rochester embayment, where rapid shifts in water movement were occasionally detected in LANDSAT images. The position of the spring thermal bar, a zone, of maximum density water corresponding to the 4°C isotherm, was approximately located in images obtained during April 1973. Although eastward moving currents were detected on the inshore side of the thermal bar, westward moving counter currents seem to be dominant along its offshore side. Plumes generated by beach erosion were readily detected in the images. Such areas are identified by light to very light, long, narrow plumes paralleling the coastline. Extensive areas of the south shore are subject to erosion, but the most severely affected beaches are situated between Fifty Mile Pt., Ontario and Thirty Mile Pt., N.Y., along the Rochester embayment, and between Sodus Bay and Nine Mile Pt. Color illustrations of figure accession numbers EDC-010077 to EDC-010106 are available for purchase from the EROS Data Center, Sioux Falls, South Dakota 57198.

Lake Ontario↗
USGS2021

A machine learning approach to modeling streamflow with sparse data in ungaged watersheds on the Wyoming Range, Wyoming, 2012–17

Scant availability of streamflow data can impede the utility of streamflow as a variable in ecological models of aquatic and terrestrial species, especially when studying small streams in watersheds that lack streamgages. Streamflow data at fine resolution and broad extent were needed by collaborators for ecological research on small streams in several ungaged watersheds of southwestern Wyoming, where streamflow data are sparse. To improve the utility of sparse streamflow data to ecological research in ungaged watersheds, we developed a machine learning approach in R for modeling spatially and temporally continuous monthly streamflow from 2012 through 2017 in three semiarid montane-steppe watersheds (with drainage areas of 26–55 square miles and mean elevations of 8,031–8,455 feet) on the Wyoming Range in the upper Green River Basin. A machine learning streamflow (MLFLOW) model was calibrated and validated with 971 discrete streamflow observations and 24 static and dynamic predictor variables derived from geospatial and time series data on climatic, physiographic, and anthropogenic characteristics affecting streamflow. The predictor variables were temporally and spatially conditioned to amplify the relation of predictor variables to monthly streamflow. The MLFLOW model had satisfactory agreement between observed and predicted streamflow (coefficient of determination [ R 2 ]=0.80, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency [NSE]=0.79, NSE with log-transformed data [logNSE]=0.82, and percent bias [PBIAS]=0.7 percent). NSE and logNSE indicated the MLFLOW model performed equally well for high and low flows, and PBIAS indicated the MLFLOW model did not overpredict or underpredict monthly streamflow. Streamflow predictions seemed to well represent the annual hydrograph within the study area during the study period. The most important variables (statistically important in the MLFLOW model) for explaining monthly streamflow were temporally and spatially conditioned dynamic climatic variables, mostly precipitation and snow water equivalent. Importance of the static and dynamic variables did not differ substantially among the three watersheds but differed considerably among the 6 years. Monthly streamflow increased with increasing precipitation, snow water equivalent, and drainage area but decreased with increasing forest cover, elevation, evapotranspiration, and temperature. The MLFLOW model was most sensitive to selection of dynamic climatic variables. Unconditioned dynamic climatic variables alone explained 54 percent of the variance ( R 2 =0.54) in monthly streamflow, whereas adding static physiographic and anthropogenic variables only explained 12 percent more of the variance ( R 2 =0.66). Also, spatial conditioning of all variables together with temporal conditioning of dynamic variables increased the variance explained in the MLFLOW model by another 14 percent ( R 2 =0.80). The MLFLOW model also had greater sensitivity to temporal than to spatial differences in the data. For the MLFLOW model trained with observations from all watersheds and years or for models trained with observations from all except one watershed or 1 year left out sequentially, performance was better in testing on observations from each watershed than from each year separately. Also, performance was better for models fitted to fewer sites than to fewer months of observations. The greatest utility of the modeling approach is the ease of use and the speed of processing input data, running the model, and interpreting the model output, whereas the greatest limitation is the need for spatially and temporally representative streamflow observations to drive the model. Although familiarity with R is necessary, only a working knowledge of hydrology (for selecting appropriate predictor variables and evaluating the quality of streamflow observations) and a rudimentary understanding of machine learning models are needed. Therefore, this modeling approach is practicable for other scientists who work with water but who are not hydrologists.

Wyoming↗
USGS1973

Wolf numbers in the Superior National Forest of Minnesota

Seventy-seven radio-tagged wolves (Canis lupus), including members of 12 adjacent packs, were located more than 3000 times, and observed on 1337 occasions, from 1968 through mid-1973. Projected population estimates for the 4203 square-mile Forest were 405 plus or minus 20 for winter 1971-72, and 388 plus or minus 14 for winter 1972-73.

Research Paper↗