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At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2013

Assessing impacts of roads: application of a standard assessment protocol

Adaptive management of road networks depends on timely data that accurately reflect the impacts those systems are having on ecosystem processes and associated services. In the absence of reliable data, land managers are left with little more than observations and perceptions to support management decisions of road-associated disturbances. Roads can negatively impact the soil, hydrologic, plant, and animal processes on which virtually all ecosystem services depend. The Interpreting Indicators of Rangeland Health (IIRH) protocol is a qualitative method that has been demonstrated to be effective in characterizing impacts of roads. The goal of this study were to develop, describe, and test an approach for using IIRH to systematically evaluate road impacts across large, diverse arid and semiarid landscapes. We developed a stratified random sampling approach to plot selection based on ecological potential, road inventory data, and image interpretation of road impacts. The test application on a semiarid landscape in southern New Mexico, United States, demonstrates that the approach developed is sensitive to road impacts across a broad range of ecological sites but that not all the types of stratification were useful. Ecological site and road inventory strata accounted for significant variability in the functioning of ecological processes but stratification based on apparent impact did not. Analysis of the repeatability of IIRH applied to road plots indicates that the method is repeatable but consensus evaluations based on multiple observers should be used to minimize risk of bias. Landscape-scale analysis of impacts by roads of contrasting designs (maintained dirt or gravel roads vs. non- or infrequently maintained roads) suggests that future travel management plans for the study area should consider concentrating traffic on fewer roads that are well designed and maintained. Application of the approach by land managers will likely provide important insights into minimizing impacts of road networks on key ecosystem services.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗
USGS2014

Ecological scale of bird community response to piñon-juniper removal

Piñon ( Pinus spp.) and juniper ( Juniperus spp.) removal is a common management approach to restore sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) vegetation in areas experiencing woodland expansion. Because many management treatments are conducted to benefit sagebrush-obligate birds, we surveyed bird communities to assess treatment effectiveness in establishing sagebrush bird communities at study sites in Utah, Nevada, Idaho, and Oregon. Our analyses included data from 1 or 2 yr prior to prescribed fire or mechanical treatment and 3 to 5 yr posttreatment. We used detrended correspondence analysis to 1) identify primary patterns of bird communities surveyed from 2006 to 2011 at point transects, 2) estimate ecological scale of change needed to achieve treatment objectives from the relative dissimilarity of survey points to the ordination region delineating sagebrush bird communities, and 3) measure changes in pre- and posttreatment bird communities. Birds associated with sagebrush, woodlands, and ecotones were detected on our surveys; increased dissimilarity of survey points to the sagebrush bird community was characterized by a gradient of increased juniper and decreased sagebrush cover. Prescribed fires burned between 30% and 97% of our bird survey points. However, from 6% to 24% cover of piñon-juniper still remained posttreatment on the four treatment plots. We measured only slight changes in bird communities, which responded primarily to current vegetation rather than relative amount of change from pretreatment vegetation structure. Bird communities at survey points located at greater ecological scales from the sagebrush bird community changed least and will require more significant impact to achieve changes. Sagebrush bird communities were established at only two survey points, which were adjacent to a larger sagebrush landscape and following almost complete juniper removal by mechanical treatment. Our results indicate that management treatments that leave residual woodland cover and are not adjacent to extensive sagebrush stands are unlikely to establish sagebrush birds.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗
USGS2019

Socioecological determinants of drought impacts and coping strategies for ranching operations in the Great Plains

In Great Plains rangelands, drought is a recurring disturbance. Ranchers in this region expect to encounter drought but may not be adequately prepared for it. Efforts to encourage drought preparedness would benefit from a better understanding of the conditions under which managers make decisions to minimize the impacts of drought. We tested the direct and moderating roles of the drought hazard and the social-ecological context on drought impacts and response. This study was conducted with ranchers in western and central South Dakota and Nebraska following the drought that began in 2012. We surveyed ranchers regarding the effects of the drought and their responses and used multimodel analysis to explore the relationships among measures of drought preparedness, drought response, and drought impacts. Drought severity was the primary predictor of all impacts, but specific types of impacts were varied depending on the operation’s enterprise mix, resources, and management. The socioecological characteristics of the ranch system predicted drought response actions taken, by either providing the necessary resources and capacity to take action or creating sensitivity in the system that required action to be taken. We conclude with recommendations for learning from current drought experiences in order to better adapt to future drought events.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗
USGS2025

Edge effects along roadside fuel treatments in sagebrush steppe

Increasing wildfire has motivated the construction of fuel breaks on many rangelands to improve prospects for wildfire suppression. However, the linear shape of fuel breaks greatly increases treatment perimeter: area and thus increased potential for edge effects, e.g., invasions by exotic plants. Potential for edge effects are further increased by the disturbances associated with fuel-break implementation. Fire risk in perennial-dominated and sagebrush-steppe rangelands are increased by exotic species, such as cheatgrass and other associated annuals, and therefore invasions after fuel-break implementation are problematic, yet have rarely been evaluated. Abundances of dominant invaders, cheatgrass and Russian thistle, were measured along treated and neighboring untreated edges in 40 paired plots along ∼61 km of 60-m wide fuel breaks. Fuel breaks were constructed using a variety of shrub-cutting and herbicide applications 1–4 yr before measurement. Generalized linear mixed effect models revealed that fractional cover significantly increased in treated compared with untreated areas by 0.02–0.12 for cheatgrass and 0–0.06 for Russian thistle within 9 m of treatment boundaries (on a scale of 0-1). We neither detected increased invasion in adjacent and untreated areas nor gradients of increasing invasion with proximity to treatment boundaries. Although these findings reveal invasions that were otherwise undetected across the entire 60 m width of fuel breaks, invasion levels did not surpass nominal management thresholds for fire behavior or risk of conversion to annual grasslands.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗
USGS2013

Combining glyphosate with burning or mowing improves control of Yellow Bluestem ( Bothriochloa ischaemum )

The invasive yellow bluestem ( Bothriochloa ischaemum [L.] Keng) threatens native biodiversity, and its control is of interest to land managers involved in restoration of invaded grasslands. We used single, double, and triple applications of glyphosate (2.125 kg ai.ha -1 .application -1 ) over the course of one growing season in combinations at different timings (early, middle, late season) with and without a mechanical treatment of mowing or burning to determine the most effective control method. One year after treatment, burning and mowing prior to a mid-season single or double early, middle, and/or late season herbicide application resulted in a similar level of control of yellow bluestem relative to a triple herbicide application, all of which had greater control relative to herbicide treatment alone. Reproductive tiller density and visual obstruction increased 2 yr after treatment with two herbicide treatments applied either early and middle season or early and late season, but it was prevented with burning and mowing prior to herbicide application. With the exception of three herbicide applications, combining burning or mowing with herbicide applications provided more effective control of yellow bluestem than any individual herbicide applications. Burning or mowing likely improves glyphosate effectiveness by altering the invasive grass structure so that plants are clear of standing dead and have shorter, active regrowth to enhance herbicide effectiveness. During restoration projects requiring control of invasive yellow bluestem, an effective management option is a combination of mechanical and chemical control.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗
USGS2020

Departures of rangeland fractional component cover and land cover from landsat-based ecological potential in Wyoming USA

Monitoring rangelands by identifying the departure of contemporary conditions from long-term ecological potential allows for the disentanglement of natural biophysical gradients driving change from changes associated with land uses and other disturbance types. We developed maps of ecological potential (EP) for shrub, sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.), perennial herbaceous, litter, and bare ground fractional cover in Wyoming, USA. EP maps correspond to the potential natural vegetation cover expected by environmental conditions in the absence of anthropogenic and natural disturbance as represented by the greenest and least disturbed period of the Landsat archive. EP was predicted using regression tree models with inputs of soil maps and spectral data associated with the 75th percentile of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index in the Landsat archive. We trained our EP models with 2015 component cover maps on ecologically intact sites with relatively lower bare ground than expected. We generated departure of vegetation cover by comparing the EP and 2015 fractional cover. The departures represent land cover change from potential land cover and/or within-state changes in 2015. Next, we converted EP and 2015 fractional cover maps into thematic land cover and evaluated departure to determine if it was great enough to result in land cover change. The 2015 conditions showed reduced shrub, sagebrush, litter, and perennial herbaceous cover and increased bare ground relative to EP. Known disturbances, such as energy development, fires, and vegetation treatments, are clearly visible on the departure maps, but not on EP component maps. The most frequent departure from EP land cover was shrubland conversion to grassland. Land cover departures can be explained only in small part by known disturbance, and instead are ostensibly related to climate and land management practices. These drivers result in land cover departures that broadened the ecotone between shrubland and grassland relative to EP.

Wyoming↗
USGS2014

Soil resources influence vegetation and response to fire and fire-surrogate treatments in sagebrush-steppe ecosystems

Current paradigm suggests that spatial and temporal competition for resources limit an exotic invader, cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum L.), which once established, alters fire regimes and can result in annual grass dominance in sagebrush steppe. Prescribed fire and fire surrogate treatments (mowing, tebuthiuron, and imazapic) are used to reduce woody fuels and increase resistance to exotic annuals, but may alter resource availability and inadvertently favor invasive species. We used four study sites within the Sagebrush Steppe Treatment Evaluation Project (SageSTEP) to evaluate 1) how vegetation and soil resources were affected by treatment, and 2) how soil resources influenced native herbaceous perennial and exotic annual grass cover before and following treatment. Treatments increased resin exchangeable NH4 + , NO3 − , H2PO4 − , and K + , with the largest increases caused by prescribed fire and prolonged by application of imazapic. Burning with imazapic application also increased the number of wet growing degree days. Tebuthiuron and imazapic reduced exotic annual grass cover, but imazapic also reduced herbaceous perennial cover when used with prescribed fire. Native perennial herbaceous species cover was higher where mean annual precipitation and soil water resources were relatively high. Exotic annual grass cover was higher where resin exchangeable H 2 PO 4 − was high and gaps between perennial plants were large. Prescribed fire, mowing, and tebuthiuron were successful at increasing perennial herbaceous cover, but the results were often ephemeral and inconsistent among sites. Locations with sandy soil, low mean annual precipitation, or low soil water holding capacity were more likely to experience increased exotic annual grass cover after treatment, and treatments that result in slow release of resources are needed on these sites. This is one of few studies that correlate abiotic variables to native and exotic species cover across a broad geographic setting, and that demonstrates how soil resources potentially influence the outcome of management treatments.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗
USGS2006

The use of landsat 7 enhanced thematic mapper plus for mapping leafy spurge

Euphorbia esula L. (leafy spurge) is an invasive weed that is a major problem in much of the Upper Great Plains region, including parts of Montana, South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, and Wyoming. Infestations in North Dakota alone have had a serious economic impact, estimated at $87 million annually in 1991, to the state's wildlife, tourism, and agricultural economy. Leafy spurge degrades prairie and badland ecosystems by displacing native grasses and forbs. It is a major threat to protected ecosystems in many national parks, national wild lands, and state recreational areas in the region. This study explores the use of Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (Landsat) imagery and derived products as a management tool for mapping leafy spurge in Theodore Roosevelt National Park, in southwestern North Dakota. An unsupervised clustering approach was used to map leafy spurge classes and resulted in overall classification accuracies of approximately 63%. The uses of Landsat imagery did not provide the accuracy required for detailed mapping of small patches of the weed. However, it demonstrated the potential for mapping broad-scale (regional) leafy spurge occurrence. This paper offers recommendations on the suitability of Landsat imagery as a tool for use by resource managers to map and monitor leafy spurge populations over large areas.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗
USGS2013

Outplanting Wyoming big sagebrush following wldfire: stock performance and economics

Finding ecologically and economically effective ways to establish matrix species is often critical for restoration success. Wyoming big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata subsp. wyomingensis) historically dominated large areas of western North America, but has been extirpated from many areas by large wildfires; its re-establishment in these areas often requires active management. We evaluated the performance (survival, health) and economic costs of container and bare-root stock based on operational plantings of more than 1.5 million seedlings across 2 200 ha, and compared our plantings with 30 other plantings in which sagebrush survival was tracked for up to 5 yr. Plantings occurred between 2001 and 2007, and included 12 combinations of stock type, planting amendment, and planting year.We monitored 10 500 plants for up to 8 yr after planting. Survival to Year 3 averaged 21% and was higher for container stock (30%) than bare-root stock (17%). Survival did not differ among container stock plantings, whereas survival of bare-root stock was sometimes enhanced by a hydrogel dip before planting, but not by mycorrhizal amendments. Most mortality occurred during the first year after planting; this period is the greatest barrier to establishment of sagebrush stock. The proportion of healthy stock in Year 1 was positively related to subsequent survival to Year 3. Costs were minimized, and survival maximized, by planting container stock or bare-root stock with a hydrogel dip. Our results indicate that outplanting is an ecologically and economically effective way of establishing Wyoming big sagebrush. However, statistical analyses were limited by the fact that data about initial variables (stock quality, site conditions, weather) were often unrecorded and by the lack of a replicated experimental design. Sharing consistent data and using an experimental approach would help land managers and restoration practitioners maximize the success of outplanting efforts.

Washington↗
USGS2020

Weed-suppressive bacteria applied as a spray or seed mixture did not control Bromus tectorum

We conducted two case studies testing effectiveness of a soil-borne bacteria, Pseudomonas fluorescens strain D7, in controlling Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) and in affecting the density of sown desirable seedlings. We conducted two case studies testing D7’s ability to control of B. tectorum (cover, biomass and density) when mixed with native seeds sown after a fire and when sprayed on a native community with high abundances of B. tectorum. Each case study area (162 ha) compared treatments with D7 present and absent and was replicated four times (20.3 ha each) in a completely randomized design. Response variables (foliar cover, aboveground biomass, and density of B. tectorum; density of sown native plants) were measured pretreatment for the sprayed area and each year for three years after treatment at both study areas and were evaluated as a repeated measures analysis. Foliar cover, biomass, and density of B. tectorum with sprayed or seed mixture applications did not differ between D7-treated and untreated areas at any time within the study (F1,6 ≤ 1.42; p ≥ 0.28). D7 as a seed mixture did not significantly impact densities of native seedlings (F1,6 = 1.27; p = 0.30) at any time during the study. Results contrasted with previous D7 studies that showed effective control of B. tectorum within three years of treatment. Since bioherbicidal methods are being commonly applied, we believe that reporting negative results are important for future meta-analytical studies that provide managers with information on the likelihood for weed suppressive bacteria to effectively control weeds.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗
USGS2014

Resilience and resistance of sagebrush ecosystems: implications for state and transition models and management treatments

In sagebrush ecosystems invasion of annual exotics and expansion of piñon ( Pinus monophylla Torr. and Frem.) and juniper ( Juniperus occidentalis Hook., J. osteosperma [Torr.] Little) are altering fire regimes and resulting in large-scale ecosystem transformations. Management treatments aim to increase resilience to disturbance and enhance resistance to invasive species by reducing woody fuels and increasing native perennial herbaceous species. We used Sagebrush Steppe Treatment Evaluation Project data to test predictions on effects of fire vs. mechanical treatments on resilience and resistance for three site types exhibiting cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum L.) invasion and/or piñon and juniper expansion: 1) warm and dry Wyoming big sagebrush (WY shrub); 2) warm and moist Wyoming big sagebrush (WY PJ); and 3) cool and moist mountain big sagebrush (Mtn PJ). Warm and dry (mesic/aridic) WY shrub sites had lower resilience to fire (less shrub recruitment and native perennial herbaceous response) than cooler and moister (frigid/xeric) WY PJ and Mtn PJ sites. Warm (mesic) WY Shrub and WY PJ sites had lower resistance to annual exotics than cool (frigid to cool frigid) Mtn PJ sites. In WY shrub, fire and sagebrush mowing had similar effects on shrub cover and, thus, on perennial native herbaceous and exotic cover. In WY PJ and Mtn PJ, effects were greater for fire than cut-and-leave treatments and with high tree cover in general because most woody vegetation was removed increasing resources for other functional groups. In WY shrub, about 20% pretreatment perennial native herb cover was necessary to prevent increases in exotics after treatment. Cooler and moister WY PJ and especially Mtn PJ were more resistant to annual exotics, but perennial native herb cover was still required for site recovery. We use our results to develop state and transition models that illustrate how resilience and resistance influence vegetation dynamics and management options.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗
USGS2016

Conserving the Greater Sage-grouse: A social-ecological systems case study from the California-Nevada region

The Endangered Species Act (ESA) continues to serve as one of the most powerful and contested federal legislative mandates for conservation. In the midst of heated debates, researchers, policy makers, and conservation practitioners champion the importance of cooperative conservation and social-ecological systems approaches, which forge partnerships at multiple levels and scales to address complex ecosystem challenges. However, few real-world examples exist to demonstrate how multifaceted collaborations among stakeholders who share a common goal of conserving at-risk species may be nested within a systems framework to achieve social and ecological goals. Here, we present a case study of Greater Sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) conservation efforts in the “Bi-State” region of California and Nevada, United States. Using key-informant interviews, we explored dimensions and drivers of this landscape-scale conservation effort. Three themes emerged from the interviews, including 1) ESA action was transformed into opportunity for system-wide conservation; 2) a diverse, locally based partnership anchored collaboration and engagement across multiple levels and scales; and 3) best-available science combined with local knowledge led to “certainty of effectiveness and implementation”—the criteria used by the US Fish and Wildlife Service to evaluate conservation efforts when making listing decisions. Ultimately, collaborative conservation through multistakeholder engagement at various levels and scales led to proactive planning and implementation of conservation measures and precluded the need for an ESA listing of the Bi-State population of Greater Sage-grouse. This article presents a potent example of how a systems approach integrating policy, management, and learning can be used to successfully overcome the conflict-laden and “wicked” challenges that surround at-risk species conservation.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2019

Potential spread of cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) by feral horses (Equus ferus caballus) in Western Colorado

The invasive grass cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum L.) presents major challenges for land management and habitat conservation in the western United States. Feral horses (Equus ferus caballus) have become overabundant in some areas of the West and can impact fragile semiarid ecosystems. Amid ongoing efforts to control cheatgrass in the Great Basin, we conducted a study to determine if feral horses contribute to the spread of cheatgrass through distribution via their feces. We collected feral horse fecal samples from Little Book Cliffs Herd Management Area in western Colorado in 2014. Fecal samples were dried, and 20 from each of 3 collection sessions were cultivated to examine germination success. Six species germinated from 18 samples (30%; mostly one plant per sample where germination occurred), including cheatgrass from 8% of samples. In a separate study we examined the diet of this same horse population using fecal plant DNA barcoding. Plant species that germinated were rare in the diet and germinated from fewer samples than expected relative to their detection in the diet. Our results suggest that feral horses could be contributing to cheatgrass propagation. Native ungulates and domestic cattle also have this potential. Although management of all large ungulates is necessary to mitigate cheatgrass spread, control of feral horse numbers is particularly necessary.

Colorado↗
USGS2020

Energy development and production in the Great Plains: Implications and restoration opportunities

Energy is an integral part of society. The major US energy sources of fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas); biofuels (ethanol); and wind are concentrated in grassland ecosystems of the Great Plains. As energy demand continues to increase, mounting pressures will be placed on North American grassland systems. In this review, we present the ecological effects of energy development and production on grassland systems. We then identify opportunities to mitigate these effects during the planning, construction, and production phases by using informed methodology and improved technology. Primary effects during energy development include small- and large-scale soil disturbance and vegetation removal as small patches of grasslands are used to host oil or gas wells, wind turbine pads, associated roadways, and pipelines or through the conversion of large grassland areas to biofuel croplands. Direct habitat loss or habitat fragmentation can affect wildlife directly through increased mortality or indirectly through reduction in habitat quantity and quality. During energy production, air and water quality can be affected through regular emissions or unplanned spills. Energy development can also affect the economy and health of local communities. During planning, energy development and production effects can be reduced by carefully considering effects on grasslands during siting and even by selecting different energy source types. During construction, effects on soil and plant systems can be minimized by eliminating weed populations before disturbance, salvaging and stockpiling topsoil for future revegetation, and harvesting native local seed for postsite restoration. During energy production operations, noise and road traffic reduction plans and atmospheric monitoring will enable more informed mitigation measures. Continued research on energy development effects and mitigation measures is necessary to establish best management practices beneficial to grassland health while providing needed energy for the United States.

Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minneso↗
USGS2017

Using resilience and resistance concepts to manage persistent threats to sagebrush ecosystems and greater sage-grouse

Conservation of imperiled species often demands addressing a complex suite of threats that undermine species viability. Regulatory approaches, such as the US Endangered Species Act (1973), tend to focus on anthropogenic threats through adoption of policies and regulatory mechanisms. However, persistent ecosystem-based threats, such as invasive species and altered disturbance regimes, remain critical issues for most at-risk species considered to be conservation-reliant. We describe an approach for addressing persistent ecosystem threats to at-risk species based on ecological resilience and resistance concepts that is currently being used to conserve greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) and sagebrush ecosystems. The approach links biophysical indicators of ecosystem resilience and resistance with species-specific population and habitat requisites in a risk-based framework to identify priority areas for management and guide allocation of resources to manage persistent ecosystem-based threats. US federal land management and natural resource agencies have adopted this framework as a foundation for prioritizing sage-grouse conservation resources and determining effective restoration and management strategies. Because threats and strategies to address them cross-cut program areas, an integrated approach that includes wildland fire operations, postfire rehabilitation, fuels management, and habitat restoration is being used. We believe this approach is applicable to species conservation in other largely intact ecosystems with persistent, ecosystem-based threats.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗
USGS2020

Managing invasive plants on Great Plains grasslands: A discussion of current challenges

The Great Plains of North America encompass approximately 1,300,000 km 2 of land from Texas to Saskatchewan. The integrity of these lands is under continual assault by long-established and newly-arrived invasive plant species, which can threaten native species and diminish land values and ecological goods and services by degrading desired grassland resources. The Great Plains are a mixture of privately and publicly owned lands, which leads to a patchwork of varying management goals and strategies for controlling invasive plants. Continually updated knowledge is required for efficient and effective management of threats posed by changing environments and invasive plants. Here we discuss current challenges, contemporary management strategies, and management tools and their integration, in hopes of presenting a knowledge resource for new and experienced land managers and others involved in making decisions regarding invasive plant management in the Great Plains.

Great Plains↗
USGS2018

Land use diversification and intensification on elk winter range in Greater Yellowstone: A framework and agenda for social-ecological research

Amenity migration describes the movement of peoples to rural landscapes and the transition toward tourism and recreation and away from production-oriented land uses (ranching, timber harvesting). The resulting mosaic of land uses and community structures has important consequences for wildlife and their management. This research note examines amenity-driven changes to social-ecological systems in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, specifically in lower elevations that serve as winter habitat for elk. We present a research agenda informed by a preliminary and exploratory mixed-methods investigation: the creation of a “social-impact” index of land use change on elk winter range and a focus group with wildlife management experts. Our findings suggest that elk are encountering an increasingly diverse landscape with respect to land use, while new ownership patterns increase the complexity of social and community dynamics. These factors, in turn, contribute to increasing difficulty meeting wildlife management objectives. To deal with rising complexity across social and ecological landscapes of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, future research will focus on property life cycle dynamics, as well as systems approaches.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗
USGS2023

Predicting exotic annual grass abundance in rangelands of the western United States using various precipitation scenarios

Expansion of exotic annual grass (EAG), such as cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum L.) and medusahead ( Taeniatherum caput-medusae [L.] Nevski), could cause irreversible changes to arid and semiarid rangeland ecosystems in the western United States. The distribution and abundance of EAG species are highly affected by weather variables such as temperature and precipitation. The study's goal is to understand how different precipitation scenarios affect EAG abundance estimates and dynamics, and we develop a machine learning modeling approach to predict how changes in annual and immediate past precipitation patterns could affect the abundance of EAG. The machine learning predictive model used seed source from previous years, weather variables, and soil profiles to drive its predictions. We achieved excellent training accuracy ( r = 0.95 and median absolute error [MdAE] = 2.36% cover) and strong test accuracy ( r = 0.79 and MdAE = 4.54% cover). We developed five versions of EAG abundance maps for 2022 with different precipitation scenarios: 9 yr of average precipitation, half of the average, three-fourths of the average, one and one-half times the average, and two times the average. The approach presented can be replicated to new study domains and easily modified for use with other precipitation scenarios. Developing multiple versions of a year's EAG spatially explicit abundance dataset predictions from multiple weather-based scenarios can provide important information to land managers as they prepare for variable EAG dynamics each year. Informed annual predictions based on weather scenario−driven models have the potential to improve fire preparation decisions.

western Untied States↗