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At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2014

Use of genetic data to infer population-specific ecological and phenotypic traits from mixed aggregations

Many applications in ecological genetics involve sampling individuals from a mixture of multiple biological populations and subsequently associating those individuals with the populations from which they arose. Analytical methods that assign individuals to their putative population of origin have utility in both basic and applied research, providing information about population-specific life history and habitat use, ecotoxins, pathogen and parasite loads, and many other non-genetic ecological, or phenotypic traits. Although the question is initially directed at the origin of individuals, in most cases the ultimate desire is to investigate the distribution of some trait among populations. Current practice is to assign individuals to a population of origin and study properties of the trait among individuals within population strata as if they constituted independent samples. It seemed that approach might bias population-specific trait inference. In this study we made trait inferences directly through modeling, bypassing individual assignment. We extended a Bayesian model for population mixture analysis to incorporate parameters for the phenotypic trait and compared its performance to that of individual assignment with a minimum probability threshold for assignment. The Bayesian mixture model outperformed individual assignment under some trait inference conditions. However, by discarding individuals whose origins are most uncertain, the individual assignment method provided a less complex analytical technique whose performance may be adequate for some common trait inference problems. Our results provide specific guidance for method selection under various genetic relationships among populations with different trait distributions.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS1995

Banding reference areas and survival rates of green-winged teal, 1950-1989

The green-winged teal ( Anas crecca carolinensis ) is an important harvest species, yet we know relatively little about its population ecology. We investigated aspects of green-winged teal population ecology of potential importance to waterfowl managers. We used recoveries of green-winged teal banded during winter (1950-89) to establish banding reference areas and estimate survival and band recovery rates. We used cluster analysis based on similarities in recovery patterns to group banding degree blocks into 8 minor and 5 major reference areas describing the principal wintering range of green-winged teal in North America. We then estimated survival and recovery rates of green-winged teal banded in these areas. Mean annual survival rate estimates across years and reference areas were similar (P > 0.05) for males (0.55, SE = 0.022) and females (0.51, SE = 0.057). Mean annual recovery rate estimates were larger for males (0.033, SE = 0.0017) than for females (0.024, SE = 0.0024) ( P < 0.01). There was little evidence of temporal variation in survival or recovery rates for most datasets. There was evidence of geographic variation in survival rates among major reference areas for males ( P = 0.04) but not for females ( P = 0.30). We recommend that analyses be conducted on greenwinged teal banded during preseason to further investigate possible sex specificity of survival rates and to address questions about the relationship between harvest rates and survival.

California, Georgia, Kansas, Nevada, Ohio, Virgini↗
USGS2018

Estimating abundance of an open population with an N-mixture model using auxiliary data on animal movements

Accurate assessment of abundance forms a central challenge in population ecology and wildlife management. Many statistical techniques have been developed to estimate population sizes because populations change over time and space and to correct for the bias resulting from animals that are present in a study area but not observed. The mobility of individuals makes it difficult to design sampling procedures that account for movement into and out of areas with fixed jurisdictional boundaries. Aerial surveys are the gold standard used to obtain data of large mobile species in geographic regions with harsh terrain, but these surveys can be prohibitively expensive and dangerous. Estimating abundance with ground‐based census methods have practical advantages, but it can be difficult to simultaneously account for temporary emigration and observer error to avoid biased results. Contemporary research in population ecology increasingly relies on telemetry observations of the states and locations of individuals to gain insight on vital rates, animal movements, and population abundance. Analytical models that use observations of movements to improve estimates of abundance have not been developed. Here we build upon existing multi‐state mark–recapture methods using a hierarchical N ‐mixture model with multiple sources of data, including telemetry data on locations of individuals, to improve estimates of population sizes. We used a state‐space approach to model animal movements to approximate the number of marked animals present within the study area at any observation period, thereby accounting for a frequently changing number of marked individuals. We illustrate the approach using data on a population of elk ( Cervus elaphus nelsoni ) in Northern Colorado, USA. We demonstrate substantial improvement compared to existing abundance estimation methods and corroborate our results from the ground based surveys with estimates from aerial surveys during the same seasons. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian N‐mixture model using multiple sources of data on abundance, movement and survival to estimate the population size of a mobile species that uses remote conservation areas. The model improves accuracy of inference relative to previous methods for estimating abundance of open populations.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2019

Energetic constraints and the paradox of a diffusing population in a heterogeneous environment

Previous mathematical analyses have shown that, for certain parameter ranges, a population, described by logistic equations on a set of connected patches, and diffusing among them, can reach a higher equilibrium total population when the local carrying capacities are heterogeneously distributed across patches, than when carrying capacities having the same total sum are homogeneously distributed across the patches. It is shown here that this apparently paradoxical result is explained when the resultant differences in energy inputs to the whole multi-patch system are taken into account. We examine both Pearl–Verhulst and Original Verhulst logistic models and show that, when total input of energy or limiting resource, is constrained to be the same in the homogeneous and heterogeneous cases, the total population in the heterogeneous patches can never reach an asymptotic equilibrium that is greater than the sum of the carrying capacities over the homogeneous patches. We further show that, when the dynamics of the limiting resources are explicitly modeled, as in a chemostat model, the paradoxical result of the logistic models does not occur. These results have implications concerning the use of some ubiquitous equations of population ecology in modeling populations in space.

Theoretical Population Biology↗
USGS2007

Status review of the Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) in Alaska and British Columbia

The Marbled Murrelet ( Brachyramphus marmoratus ) is a small, diving seabird inhabiting inshore waters of the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. This species feeds on small, schooling fishes and zooplankton, and nests primarily on the moss-covered branches of large, old-growth conifers, and also, in some parts of its range, on the ground. We reviewed existing information on this species to evaluate its current status in the northern part of its range—Alaska (U.S.) and British Columbia (Canada). Within the southern part of its range (Washington, Oregon, and California, U.S.), the Marbled Murrelet was listed as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) in 1993, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) needed information on the species throughout its range for ESA deliberations. We compiled published information on the conservation status, population biology, foraging ecology, population genetics, population status and trends, demography, marine and nesting habitat characteristics, threats, and ongoing conservation efforts for Marbled Murrelets in Alaska and British Columbia. We conducted a new genetic study using samples from a segment of the range that had not been included in previous studies (Washington, Oregon) and additional nuclear intron and microsatellite markers. We also analyzed available at-sea survey data from several locations for trend. To understand the reasonableness of the empirical trend data, we developed demographic models incorporating stochasticity to discern what population trends were possible by chance. The genetic studies substantially confirmed previous findings on population structure in the Marbled Murrelet. Our present work finds three populations: (1) one comprising birds in the central and western Aleutian Islands; (2) one comprising birds in central California; and (3) one comprising birds within the center of the range from the eastern Aleutians to northern California. Our knowledge of genetic structure within this central population is limited and it requires additional study. Compiling available abundance information, we estimated that in the recent past, Marbled Murrelets in Alaska numbered on the order of 1 million birds. We were unable to generate a similar estimate for historical population size in British Columbia. Using trend information from at-sea surveys spanning a wide geographic range in Alaska, murrelet numbers declined significantly at five of eight trend sites at annual rates of -5.4 to -12.7 percent since the early 1990s. Applying these rates of decline to the historical population estimate, the current murrelet population in Alaska is projected to be on the order of 270,000 birds. This represents an overall population decline of about 70 percent during the past 25 years. In British Columbia, available trend data indicate that murrelet populations there have experienced similar declines. We updated a recent (2002) population estimate for British Columbia, concluding that there are now between 54,000 and 92,000 murrelets in British Columbia. The rates of decline we observed are within, but at the high end of, a range of rates expected by chance. Given that declines were estimated for sites over essentially the entire northern range of the species, there is cause for concern about the species’ status. In their marine habitats, Marbled Murrelets overlap with salmon (Oncorhynchus sp.) gillnetting operations in British Columbia and in Alaska (especially in Prince William Sound and Southeast Alaska), and annual bycatch mortality is likely in the low thousands per year, although bycatch rates are difficult to measure. The species’ inshore distribution coincides with high levels of vessel traffic and makes them especially vulnerable to both chronic oil pollution and to catastrophic spills (e.g., the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill [EVOS] in south-central Alaska, which is estimated to have killed 12,000 to 15,000 murrelets). In their forested nesting habitats, Marbled Murrelets have lost about 15 percent of their suitable nesting habitat in Southeast Alaska, and 33 to 49 percent in British Columbia, from industrial-scale logging within the past half century. Increased predation also may be a threat to murrelet populations, related to fragmentation and edge effects from logging and development, and recent population increases observed for some important murrelet predators, including Bald Eagles ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ), Common Ravens ( Corvus corax ), and Steller’s Jays ( Cyanocitta stelleri ). Nesting habitat losses cannot explain the declines observed in areas where industrial logging has not occurred on a large scale (e.g., Prince William Sound) or at all (Glacier Bay). The apparent change in population size and rates of decline reported for the Marbled Murrelet are large, and we therefore considered alternative explanations and precedents for changes of similar magnitude in other marine wildlife populations in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. The declines are likely real, and related to combined and cumulative effects from climate-related changes in the marine ecosystem (most likely the 1977 regime shift) and human activities (logging, gillnet bycatch, oil pollution). Much uncertainty about the decline could be alleviated by continuing to repeat boat surveys in Prince William Sound and lower Cook Inlet, and by repeating the boat survey of Southeast Alaska that was conducted in 1994. This survey used a statistically sound design and covered the region that has been and likely remains the center of the species’ abundance. Important questions remain to be addressed about methods for measuring population status and change, adult mortality (major sources, density dependence, seasonal concordance), and the movements of wintering populations.

Alaska, British Columbia↗
USGS2014

Ecology and population status of trout-perch ( Percopsis omiscomaycus ) in western Lake Erie

Trout-perch Percopsis omiscomaycus is among the most abundant benthic species in Lake Erie, but comparatively little is known about its ecology. Although others have conducted extensive studies on trout-perch ecology, those efforts predated invasions of white perch Morone americana , Dreissena spp., Bythotrephes longimanus and round goby Neogobius melanostomus , suggesting the need to revisit past work. Trout-perch were sampled with bottom trawls at 56 sites during June and September 2010. We examined diets, fecundity, average annual mortality, sex ratio, and long-term population trends at sites sampled since 1961. Trout-perch abundance fluctuated periodically, with distinct shorter- (4-year) and longer-term (over period of 50 years) fluctuations. Males had higher average annual mortality than females. Both sexes were equally abundant at age 0, but females outnumbered males 4:1 by age 2. Diets of trout-perch were dominated by macroinvertebrates, particularly chironomids and Hexagenia sp. Size distributions of trout-perch eggs varied widely and exhibited multiple modes indicative of protracted batch spawning. A review of the few other studies of trout-perch revealed periodic fluctuations in sex ratio of adults, which in light of our evidence of periodicity in abundance suggests the potential for sex-ratio-mediated intrinsic population regulation. Despite the introduction of numerous invasive species in Lake Erie, trout-perch remain one of the most abundant benthic invertivores and the population is relatively stable.

Lake Erie↗
USGS2021

Pedigree accumulation analysis: Combining methods from community ecology and population genetics for breeding adult estimation

Estimates of the number of successfully breeding adults ( N S ) in a population can predict levels of recruitment. However, assessments of N S are often difficult to obtain because encounters with adults are limited due to life-history characteristics, low abundance or other constraints associated with access to critical habitats. Alternatively, efforts to sample individuals at earlier ontogenetic stages can be more tractable, resulting in more comprehensive samples. To estimate N S , we describe, evaluate and apply two nonparametric species richness estimators to information associated with genetic pedigree reconstruction. Simulations compared bias and precision associated with Chao and Jackknife methods when estimating N S . We also evaluated N S estimation sensitivity to two sources of variation associated with species reproductive ecology (variance in reproductive success and sex ratio skew) and genetic pedigree assignment error. Finally, the application of our novel method was demonstrated in two different species and systems (Chinook Salmon in Oregon, USA and Lake Sturgeon in Michigan, USA). We found unbiased N S estimates were generated across a broad range of offspring sample sizes using the Chao method. Empirical results corroborated simulation-based expectations and highlighted applications where parents and offspring are sampled, and when only offspring are sampled. When offspring sample sizes are adequate and pedigree reconstruction errors are low, the combination of established methods from community ecology and genetic pedigree reconstruction provides an accurate alternative method to estimate N S that can facilitate population assessments.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2013

Change-in-ratio

Change-in-ratio (CIR) methods are used to estimate parameters for ecological populations subject to differential removals from population subclasses. Subclasses can be defined according to criteria such as sex, age, or size of individuals. Removals are generally in the form of closely monitored sport or commercial harvests. Estimation is based on observed changes in subclass proportions caused by the removals.

Book chapter↗
USGS2019

Decision-making in agent-based modeling: A current review and future prospectus

All basic processes of ecological populations involve decisions; when and where to move, when and what to eat, and whether to fight or flee. Yet decisions and the underlying principles of decision-making have been difficult to integrate into the classical population-level models of ecology. Certainly, there is a long history of modeling individuals' searching behavior, diet selection, or conflict dynamics within social interactions. When all the individuals are given certain simple rules to govern their decision-making processes, the resultant population–level models have yielded important generalizations and theory. But it is also recognized that such models do not represent the way real individuals decide on actions. Factors that influence a decision include the organism's environment with its dynamic rewards and risks, the complex internal state of the organism, and its imperfect knowledge of the environment. In the case of animals, it may also involve complex social factors, and experience and learning, which vary among individuals. The way that all factors are weighed and processed to lead to decisions is a major area of behavioral theory. While classic population-level modeling is limited in its ability to integrate decision-making in its actual complexity, the development of individual- or agent-based models (IBM/ABMs) (we use ABM throughout to designate both “agent-based modeling” and an “agent-based model”) has opened the possibility of describing the way that decisions are made, and their effects, in minute detail. Over the years, these models have increased in size and complexity. Current ABMs can simulate thousands of individuals in realistic environments, and with highly detailed internal physiology, perception and ability to process the perceptions and make decisions based on those and their internal states. The implementation of decision-making in ABMs ranges from fairly simple to highly complex; the process of an individual deciding on an action can occur through the use of logical and simple (if-then) rules to more sophisticated neural networks and genetic algorithms. The purpose of this paper is to give an overview of the ways in which decisions are integrated into a variety of ABMs and to give a prospectus on the future of modeling of decisions in ABMs.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2013

Plausible combinations: An improved method to evaluate the covariate structure of Cormack-Jolly-Seber mark-recapture models

Mark-recapture models are extensively used in quantitative population ecology, providing estimates of population vital rates, such as survival, that are difficult to obtain using other methods. Vital rates are commonly modeled as functions of explanatory covariates, adding considerable flexibility to mark-recapture models, but also increasing the subjectivity and complexity of the modeling process. Consequently, model selection and the evaluation of covariate structure remain critical aspects of mark-recapture modeling. The difficulties involved in model selection are compounded in Cormack-Jolly- Seber models because they are composed of separate sub-models for survival and recapture probabilities, which are conceptualized independently even though their parameters are not statistically independent. The construction of models as combinations of sub-models, together with multiple potential covariates, can lead to a large model set. Although desirable, estimation of the parameters of all models may not be feasible. Strategies to search a model space and base inference on a subset of all models exist and enjoy widespread use. However, even though the methods used to search a model space can be expected to influence parameter estimation, the assessment of covariate importance, and therefore the ecological interpretation of the modeling results, the performance of these strategies has received limited investigation. We present a new strategy for searching the space of a candidate set of Cormack-Jolly-Seber models and explore its performance relative to existing strategies using computer simulation. The new strategy provides an improved assessment of the importance of covariates and covariate combinations used to model survival and recapture probabilities, while requiring only a modest increase in the number of models on which inference is based in comparison to existing techniques.

Open Journal Of Ecology↗
USGS1981

Populations, feeding ecology and molt of Steller's Eiders

This study considers the temporal and spatial distribution of Steller's Eiders ( Polysticta stelleri ) during molt along the north side of the Alaska Peninsula from Port Heiden to Bechevin Bay. Subadult eiders molted primarily at Nelson Lagoon, adult males at Nelson Lagoon and Izembek Bay, and adult females primarily at Izembek Bay. Only a few eiders used Bechevin Bay, Seal Islands, and Port Heiden. Although the flightless period overlapped among different age and sex classes, subadults were flightless first, then adult males, and last, adult females. Eiders maintained spatial and temporal separation during the flightless period, thereby reducing competition for food resources. Eiders at Nelson Lagoon were observed feeding only by head-dipping during the pre-flightless period in 1979, a significant change from 1977 when they fed both by diving and dipping. During both 1977 and 1979 eiders foraged for approximately equal amounts of time during each stage of molt. Foods consisted primarily of bivalve mollusks and amphipods. These foods were consumed in different proportions before and after the wing-feather molt, with mussels being most important when eiders were growing remiges. Comparisons between the amount of energy in blue mussels ( Mytilus edulis ), clams ( Macoma balthica ), and gammarid amphipods showed that mussels yield the most energy per gram of whole wet weight. Apparently Steller's Eiders have adjusted to the increased energy demands of molt by eating invertebrates with high caloric content, rather than by increasing the amount of time feeding.

Alaska↗
USGS1993

Ecology and population status of Northern Fulmars ( Fulmarus glacialis ) of the North Pacific

I n the North Pacific, the breeding distribution of Northern Fulmars ( Fulmarus glacialis ) includes about equal numbers of very large colonies (50,000-500,000 individuals) and relatively small ones (5-5,000 individuals). The almost complete segregation of light and dark colour phases between adjacent colonies in the Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk suggests there is little gene flow among the major colonies. Annual productivity averaged 0.42 chicks per breeding pair in 10 years at one colony in the Gulf of Alaska; adult survival was 0.97 per year over five years at the same location. There is no clear indication of population change at either of two large colonies studied, but several small colonies in the western Aleutians and northern Gulf of Alaska have increased since the mid-1970s. Fulmars appear to have low vulnerability to oil pollution and drifting gill nets, but they are relatively heavy consumers of plastic debris. Introduced predators probably reduced fulmar populations in the past. Population monitoring is recommended for one or more of the large Pacific colonies and several of the smaller ones. Small colonies may provide early indications of changing population status.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2007

Variation in northern bobwhite demography along two temporal scales

Quantification and understanding of demographic variation across intra- and inter-annual temporal scales can benefit from the development of theoretical models of evolution and applied conservation of species. We used long-term survey data for northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus) collected at the northern and southern extent of its geographic range to develop matrix population models which would allow investigation of intra- and inter-annual patterns in bobwhite population dynamics. We first evaluated intra-annual patterns in the importance of a seasonal demographic rate to asymptotic population growth rate with prospective perturbation analysis (elasticity analysis). We then conducted retrospective analysis (life table response experiments) of inter-annual patterns in the contribution of observed changes in demography to the observed change in population growth rate. Survival in the earliest age class during the nonbreeding season had the greatest potential influence in both the northern and southern populations. Examination of inter-annual variation in demography indicated that variation in nonbreeding season survival in the earliest age class contributed the most to observed changes in population growth rate in the northern population. In contrast, changes in fertility in the earliest age class in the southern population had the greatest influence on changes in population growth rate. Prospective elasticity analyses highlight the similarities in bobwhite demography throughout different parts of its geographic range, while retrospective life table response experiments revealed important patterns in the temporal differences of bobwhite life history at the northern and southern extent of its geographic range. ?? 2007 The Society of Population Ecology and Springer.

Population Ecology↗
USGS2008

An adaptive two-stage sequential design for sampling rare and clustered populations

How to design an efficient large-area survey continues to be an interesting question for ecologists. In sampling large areas, as is common in environmental studies, adaptive sampling can be efficient because it ensures survey effort is targeted to subareas of high interest. In two-stage sampling, higher density primary sample units are usually of more interest than lower density primary units when populations are rare and clustered. Two-stage sequential sampling has been suggested as a method for allocating second stage sample effort among primary units. Here, we suggest a modification: adaptive two-stage sequential sampling. In this method, the adaptive part of the allocation process means the design is more flexible in how much extra effort can be directed to higher-abundance primary units. We discuss how best to design an adaptive two-stage sequential sample. ?? 2008 The Society of Population Ecology and Springer.

Population Ecology↗
USGS2019

Assessing the impact of charr research past, present, and future

The 9th International Charr Symposium convened on 18–21 June 2018, in Duluth, Minnesota, USA to gather scientists with an interest in charr biology and management from the entire geographical range of the genus Salvelinus. The symposium was attended by 169 individuals from six countries, and included 99 oral and 32 poster presentations, 28 of which were published in the ensuing proceedings. Topic areas of presentations and publications included: (1) cultural anthropology; (2) genetics, evolution, taxonomy and systematics; (3) behavior, movement and habitat; (4) reproductive ecology, developmental ontogeny and physiology; (5) population ecology, dynamics and life history; (6) trophic ecology, parasites, predators, toxicology and pollution; and (7) management. Research reported in these proceedings has built upon the history of earlier symposiums and will be continued with the 10th symposium scheduled to convene in Nikko City, Tochigi Prefecture, Japan, in 2021.

Hydrobiologia↗