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At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2023

Forecasting water levels using machine (deep) learning to complement numerical modelling in the southern Everglades, USA

Water level is an important guide for water resource management and wetland ecosystems, defining one of the most basic processes in hydrology. This research seeks to investigate the possibility of complementing numerical modeling with a Machine Learning (ML) model to forecast daily water levels in the southern Everglades in Florida, USA. An exact analytical solution to water level may not be possible, but using the computational methods afforded by ML, the traditional numerical techniques may be enhanced to generate more robust, scalable predictions. Five locations were chosen for application of the Time-Delayed Neural Network (TDNN) and Long-Short Term Memory Recurrent Neural Network (LSTM-RNN) ML models, which were built to estimate water level with 1, 2, 3, 7 and 10 day forecasts using a simulation step of 1 day. The results showed that rainfall forecasts from weather models could improve water-level forecasts if the accuracy and performance of the weather models can be improved. The ML models presented here improve water-level predictions from a historical hydrologic model for a 24 hour forecast horizon.

Florida↗
USGS2021

Cross-ecosystem fluxes of pesticides from prairie wetlands mediated by aquatic insect emergence: Implications for terrestrial insectivores

Contaminants alter the quantity and quality of insect prey available to terrestrial insectivores. In agricultural regions, the quantity of aquatic insects emerging from freshwaters can be impacted by insecticides originating from surrounding croplands. We hypothesized that, in such regions, adult aquatic insects could also act as vectors of pesticide transfer to terrestrial food webs. To estimate insect-mediated pesticide flux from wetlands embedded in an important agricultural landscape, semipermanetly and temporarily ponded wetlands were surveyed in cropland and grassland landscapes across a natural salinity gradient in the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota (USA) during the bird breeding season in 2015 and 2016 ( n = 14 and 15 wetlands, respectively). Current-use pesticides, including the herbicide atrazine and the insecticides bifenthrin and imidacloprid, were detected in newly emerged insects. Pesticide detections were similar in insects emerging from agricultural and grassland wetlands. Biomass of emerging aquatic insects decreased 43%, and insect-mediated pesticide flux increased 50% along the observed gradient in concentrations of insecticides in emerging aquatic insects (from 3 to 577 ng total insecticide g –1 insect). Overall, adult aquatic insects were estimated to transfer between 2 and 180 µg total pesticide wetland –1 d –1 to the terrestrial ecosystem. In one of the 2 study years, biomass of emerging adult aquatic insects was also 73% lower from agricultural than grassland wetlands and was dependent on salinity. Our results suggest that accumulated insecticides reduce the availability of adult aquatic insect prey for insectivores and potentially increase insectivore exposure to insect-borne pesticides. Adult aquatic insects retain pesticides across metamorphosis and may expose insectivores living near both agricultural and grassland wetlands to dietary sources of toxic chemicals.

Alberta, Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota, Montana, North↗
USGS2013

Management of wetlands for wildlife

Wetlands are highly productive ecosystems that provide habitat for a diversity of wildlife species and afford various ecosystem services. Managing wetlands effectively requires an understanding of basic ecosystem processes, animal and plant life history strategies, and principles of wildlife management. Management techniques that are used differ depending on target species, coastal versus interior wetlands, and available infrastructure, resources, and management objectives. Ideally, wetlands are managed as a complex, with many successional stages and hydroperiods represented in close proximity. Managing wetland wildlife typically involves manipulating water levels and vegetation in the wetland, and providing an upland buffer. Commonly, levees and water control structures are used to manipulate wetland hydrology in combination with other management techniques (e.g., disking, burning, herbicide application) to create desired plant and wildlife responses. In the United States, several conservation programs are available to assist landowners in developing wetland management infrastructure on their property. Managing wetlands to increase habitat quality for wildlife is critical, considering this ecosystem is one of the most imperiled in the world.

Book chapter↗
USGS2015

Dry years decrease abundance of American alligators in the Florida Everglades

The Everglades has been greatly reduced and is threatened by land use change and altered hydrology. The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan calls for monitoring and assessment of key ecosystem attributes, one of which is abundance of American alligators. We examined 10 years of alligator night spotlight counts from Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge along two canals and in the interior marsh to determine trends and how dry years affect alligator abundance. Alligators showed population response to hydrologic conditions. In particular, there were declines in abundance after dry years followed by an apparent recovery in abundance in subsequent years. Increases in abundance were lower in the marsh than L-40 Canal. In addition, there was evidence that intensity of dry events affected population dynamics with greater declines observed in years with drier conditions. Results revealed that overall population of alligators increased from 2004 to 2013, but that increases varied by survey route. These results demonstrate that dry years cause a decline in alligator abundance proportional to the intensity of the dry event, and that it is important to make a distinction between canals and marsh when measuring alligator response to hydrology.

Florida↗
USGS2014

Temporal and spatial distributions of cold-water corals in the Drake Passage: insights from the last 35,000 years

Scleractinian corals have a global distribution ranging from shallow tropical seas to the depths of the Southern Ocean. Although this distribution is indicative of the corals having a tolerance to a wide spectrum of environmental conditions, individual species seem to be restricted to a much narrower range of ecosystem variables. One way to ascertain the tolerances of corals, with particular focus on the potential impacts of changing climate, is to reconstruct their growth history across a range of environmental regimes. This study examines the spatial and temporal distribution of the solitary scleractinian corals Desmophyllum dianthus, Gardineria antarctica, Balanophyllia malouinensis, Caryophyllia spp. and Flabellum spp. from five sites in the Drake Passage which cross the major frontal zones. A rapid reconnaissance radiocarbon method was used to date more than 850 individual corals. Coupled with U-Th dating, an age range of present day back to more than 100 thousand years was established for corals in the region. Within this age range there are distinct changes in the temporal and spatial distributions of these corals, both with depth and latitude, and on millennial timescales. Two major patterns that emerge are: (1) D. dianthus populations show clear variability in their occurrence through time depending on the latitudinal position within the Drake Passage. North of the Subantarctic Front, D. dianthus first appears in the late deglaciation (~17,000 years ago) and persists to today. South of the Polar Front, in contrast, early deglacial periods, with a few modern occurrences. A seamount site between the two fronts exhibits characteristics similar to both the northern and southern sites. This shift across the frontal zones within one species cannot yet be fully explained, but it is likely to be linked to changes in surface productivity, subsurface oxygen concentrations, and carbonate saturation state. (2) at locations where multiple genera were dated, differences in age and depth distribution of the populations provide clear evidence that each genus has unique environmental requirements to sustain its population.

Deep-Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Ocea↗
USGS2013

Intra-population variation in activity ranges, diel patterns, movement rates, and habitat use of American alligators in a subtropical estuary

Movement and habitat use patterns are fundamental components of the behaviors of mobile animals and help determine the scale and types of interactions they have with their environments. These behaviors are especially important to quantify for top predators because they can have strong effects on lower trophic levels as well as the wider ecosystem. Many studies of top predator movement and habitat use focus on general population level trends, which may overlook important intra-population variation in behaviors that now appear to be common. In an effort to better understand the prevalence of intrapopulation variation in top predator movement behaviors and the potential effects of such variation on ecosystem dynamics, we examined the movement and habitat use patterns of a population of adult American alligators ( Alligator mississippiensis ) in a subtropical estuary for nearly four years. We found that alligators exhibited divergent behaviors with respect to activity ranges, movement rates, and habitat use, and that individualized behaviors were stable over multiple years. We also found that the variations across the three behavioral metrics were correlated such that consistent behavioral types emerged, specifically more exploratory individuals and more sedentary individuals. Our study demonstrates that top predator populations can be characterized by high degrees of intra-population variation in terms of movement and habitat use behaviors that could lead to individuals filling different ecological roles in the same ecosystem. By extension, one-size-fits-all ecosystem and species-specific conservation and management strategies that do not account for potential intra-population variation in top predator behaviors may not produce the desired outcomes in all cases.

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science↗
USGS2021

A customized framework for regional classification of conifers using automated feature extraction

Pinyon and juniper expansion into sagebrush ecosystems is one of the major challenges facing land managers in the Great Basin. Effective pinyon and juniper treatment requires maps that accurately and precisely depict tree location and degree of woodland development so managers can target restoration efforts for early stages of pinyon and juniper expansion. However, available remotely sensed layers that cover a regional spatial extent lack the spatial resolution or accuracy to meet this need. Accuracy can be improved using object-based image analysis methods such as automated feature extraction, which has proven successful in accurately classifying land cover at the site-level but to date has yet to be applied to regional extents due to time and computational limitations. Using Feature Analyst™, we implement our framework with 1-m 2 reference imagery provided by National Agricultural Imagery Program to classify conifers across Nevada and northeastern California. Our resulting binary conifer map has an overall accuracy of 86%. We discuss the advantages to accuracy and precision our framework provides compared to other classification methods

Oregon, California, Nevada, Utah↗
USGS2002

Evaluation of potential impacts on Great Lakes water resources based on climate scenarios of two GCMs

The results of general circulation model predictions of the effects of climate change from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (model CGCM1) and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office's Hadley Centre (model HadCM2) have been used to derive potential impacts on the water resources of the Great Lakes basin. These impacts can influence the levels of the Great Lakes and the volumes of channel flow among them, thus affecting their value for interests such as riparians, shippers, recreational boaters, and natural ecosystems. On one hand, a hydrological modeling suite using input data from the CGCM1 predicts large drops in lake levels, up to a maximum of 1.38 m on Lakes Michigan and Huron by 2090. This is due to a combination of a decrease in precipitation and an increase in air temperature that leads to an increase in evaporation. On the other hand, using input from HadCM2, rises in lake levels are predicted, up to a maximum of 0.35 m on Lakes Michigan and Huron by 2090, due to increased precipitation and a reduced increase in air temperature. An interest satisfaction model shows sharp decreases in the satisfaction of the interests of commercial navigation, recreational boating, riparians, and hydropower due to lake level decreases. Most interest satisfaction scores are also reduced by lake level increases. Drastic reductions in ice cover also result from the temperature increases such that under the CGCM1 predictions, most of Lake Erie has 96% of its winters ice-free by 2090. Assessment is also made of impacts on the groundwater-dependent region of Lansing, Michigan.

Great Lakes basin↗
USGS2024

Oxidation is a potentially significant methane sink in land-terminating glacial runoff

Globally, aquatic ecosystems are one of the largest but most uncertain sources of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. It is unclear how climate change will affect methane emissions, but recent work suggests that glacial systems, which are melting faster with climate change, may be an important source of methane to the atmosphere. Currently, studies quantifying glacial emissions are limited in number, and the role of methanotrophy, or microbial methane oxidizers, in reducing atmospheric emissions from source and receiving waters is not well known. Here we discuss three potential sites for methane oxidation that could mitigate emissions from glaciers into the atmosphere: under ice oxidation, oxidation within proglacial lakes, and oxidation within melt rivers. The research presented here increases the number of glacial sites with methane concentration data and is one of only a few studies to quantify the net microbial activity of methane production and oxidation in two types of land-terminating glacial runoff (lake and river). We find that oxidation in a glacial river may reduce atmospheric methane emissions from glacial melt by as much as 53%. Incorporating methane oxidation in estimates of glacial methane emissions may significantly reduce the estimated magnitude of this source in budgeting exercises.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2025

Sampling mass mortality events to enable diagnoses: A protocol using freshwater mussels

Many taxa around the globe are threatened by often unexplained mass mortality events (MMEs), which can decimate populations and compromise key ecosystem functions. One example of a highly threatened taxon facing frequent MMEs is freshwater mussels (Unionida). There has been a recent increase in interest in understanding the causes of freshwater mussel MMEs, but standardised methodologies for how best to respond to them to facilitate diagnoses are unavailable. When an MME is observed, swift and appropriate sample collection is imperative owing to the transient nature of these phenomena. Here we provide structured guidance that will facilitate rapid and appropriate sampling of MMEs, using freshwater mussels as an example. We set out standardised procedures for sample collection, preparation and preservation. The procedures we outline will improve our capacity for diagnostic investigations of MMEs and other mortality events, not only in freshwater mussels but also across many other taxa. This, in turn, can inform appropriate management responses.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2024

Smaller body size under warming is not due to gill-oxygen limitation in a coldwater salmonid

Declining body size in fishes and other aquatic ectotherms associated with anthropogenic climate warming has significant implications for future fisheries yields, stock assessments and aquatic ecosystem stability. One proposed mechanism seeking to explain such body-size reductions, known as the gill oxygen limitation (GOL) hypothesis, has recently been used to model future impacts of climate warming on fisheries but has not been robustly empirically tested. We used brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ), a fast-growing, cold-water salmonid species of broad economic, conservation and ecological value, to examine the GOL hypothesis in a long-term experiment quantifying effects of temperature on growth, resting metabolic rate (RMR), maximum metabolic rate (MMR) and gill surface area (GSA). Despite significantly reduced growth and body size at an elevated temperature, allometric slopes of GSA were not significantly different than 1.0 and were above those for RMR and MMR at both temperature treatments (15°C and 20°C), contrary to GOL expectations. We also found that the effect of temperature on RMR was time-dependent, contradicting the prediction that heightened temperatures increase metabolic rates and reinforcing the importance of longer-term exposures (e.g. >6 months) to fully understand the influence of acclimation on temperature–metabolic rate relationships. Our results indicate that although oxygen limitation may be important in some aspects of temperature–body size relationships and constraints on metabolic supply may contribute to reduced growth in some cases, it is unlikely that GOL is a universal mechanism explaining temperature–body size relationships in aquatic ectotherms. We suggest future research focus on alternative mechanisms underlying temperature–body size relationships, and that projections of climate change impacts on fisheries yields using models based on GOL assumptions be interpreted with caution.

Journal of Experimental Biology↗
USGS2008

A Landscape Indicator Approach to the Identification and Articulation of the Ecological Consequences of Land Cover Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, 1970-2000

The advancement of geographic science in the area of land surface status and trends and land cover change is at the core of the current geographic scientific research of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) (McMahon and others, 2005). Perhaps the least developed or articulated aspects of USGS land change science have been the identification and analysis of the ecological consequences of land cover change. Changes in land use and land cover significantly affect the ability of ecosystems to provide essential ecological goods and services, which, in turn, affect the economic, public health, and social benefits that these ecosystems provide. One of the great scientific challenges for geographic science is to understand and calibrate the effects of land use and land cover change and the complex interaction between human and biotic systems at a variety of natural, geographic, and political scales. Understanding the dynamics of land surface change requires an increased understanding of the complex nature of human-environmental systems and will require a suite of scientific tools that include traditional geographic data and analysis methods, such as remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS), as well as innovative approaches to understanding the dynamics of complex systems. One such approach that has gained much recent scientific attention is the landscape indicator, or landscape assessment, approach, which has been developed with the emergence of the science of landscape ecology.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2006

Vegetation classification for south Florida natural areas

Introduction A critical component of any ecological restoration program is documenting the temporal changes in the spatial extent, pattern, and proportion of plant communities within the landscape. The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP - www.evergladesplan.org), authorized as part of the Water Resources and Development Act (WRDA) of 2000 (U.S. Congress, 2000), is an $8 billion hydrologic restoration project for all of south Florida. CERP includes 68 separate projects to be managed over the next 30 years by the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD), the U. S. Army Corp of Engineers (USACE), and other State and Federal agencies. Restoration Coordination and Verification (RECOVER) is a system-wide program of the CERP, designed to organize, manage, and provide the highest quality scientific and technical support during implementation of the restoration program (RECOVER, in prep.). It is the role of RECOVER to develop and implement a system-wide Monitoring and Assessment Plan (MAP) (RECOVER, 2004) and to document how well the CERP is meeting its objectives for ecosystem restoration. One critical component of the MAP is vegetation mapping to document changes in the spatial extent, pattern, and proportion of plant communities within the Everglades landscape. A major aspect of the vegetation mapping project was determining a classification system for labeling vegetation categories utilizing a grid method. The grid method was created specifically for use in the CERP RECOVER vegetation monitoring and assessment project (Rutchey and others, in prep). The CERP RECOVER vegetation mapping project utilizes aerial photography and photointerpretation techniques (with ground truthing) to identify and label vegetation classes. A classification system that had sufficient flexibility and detail to enable the designation of vegetation classes using various remote sensing platforms and identification techniques needed to be developed. The classification system had to be hierarchical, represent distinct ecological communities, individual species, and physical characteristics such as density and height. In addition, it was desirable to have a classification system that allowed exotic species and cattail to be identified using density classes. The classification system was developed specifically for peninsular south Florida and the Florida Keys, from Lake Okeechobee in the north to Key West in the south (Figure 1). Specific areas of interest include Everglades National Park, Big Cypress National Preserve, Biscayne National Park, Florida Panther National Wildlife Refuge, Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge, the State of Florida Water Conservation Areas, Holeyland Wildlife Management Area, Rotenberger Wildlife Management Area, J.W. Corbett Wildlife Management Area, Pal-Mar Wildlife Management Area, the Lake Okeechobee Littoral Zones, and additional coastal wetlands of south eastern Miami-Dade County. In addition to being used for mapping of CERP affected areas, the National Park Service-South Florida/Caribbean Network is using the classification for mapping the remaining areas of Everglades National Park and Big Cypress National Preserve outside the CERP footprint, Florida Panther National Wildlife Refuge, Biscayne National Park, and Dry Tortugas National Park.

Florida↗
USGS2020

A 'weight of evidence' approach to evaluating structural equation models

It is possible that model selection has been the most researched and most discussed topic in the history of both statistics and structural equation modeling (SEM). The reason for this is because selecting one model for interpretive use from amongst many possible models is both essential and difficult. The published protocols and advice for model evaluation and selection in SEM studies are complex and difficult to integrate with current approaches used in biology. Opposition to the use of p-values and decision thresholds has been voiced by the statistics community, yet certain phases of model evaluation have been historically tied to reliance on p-values. In this paper, I outline an approach to model evaluation, comparison and selection based on a weight-of-evidence paradigm. The details and proposed sequence of steps are illustrated using a real-world example. At the end of the paper, I briefly discuss the current state of knowledge and a possible direction for future studies.

One Ecosystem↗
USGS2021

A protocol for modelling generalised biological responses using latent variables in structural equation models

In this paper we consider the problem of how to quantitatively characterize the degree to which a study object exhibits a generalized response. By generalized response, we mean a multivariate response where numerous individual properties change in concerted fashion due to some internal integration. In latent variable structural equation modeling (LVSEM), we would typically approach this situation using a latent variable to represent a general property of interest (e.g., performance) and multiple observed indicator variables that reflect the specific features associated with that general property. While ecologists have used LVSEM in a number of cases, there is substantial potential for its wider application. One obstacle is that LV models can be complex and easily over-specified, degrading their value as a means of generalization. It can also be challenging to diagnose causes of misspecification and understand which model modifications are sensible. In this paper we present a protocol, consisting of a series of questions, designed to guide the researchers through the evaluation process. These questions address (1) theoretical development, (2) data requirements, (3) whether responses to perturbation are general, (4) unique reactions by individual measures, and (5) how far generality can be extended. For this illustration, we reference a recent study considering the potential consequences of maintaining biodiversity as part of agricultural management on the overall quality of grapes used for wine making. We extend our presentation to include the complexities that occur when there are multiple species with unique reactions.

One Ecosystem↗
USGS2022

General guidance for custom-built structural equation models

Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) represents a quantitative methodology for specifying and evaluating causal network hypotheses. The application of SEM typically involves the use of specialized software packages that implement estimation procedures and automate model checking and the output of summary results. There are times when the specification details an investigator wishes to implement to represent their data relationships are not supported by available SEM packages. In such cases, it may be desirable to develop and evaluate SE models “by hand”, using specialized regression tools. In this paper, I demonstrate a general approach to custom-built applications of SEM. The approach illustrated can be used for a wide array of specialized applications of non-linear, multi-level, and other custom specifications in SE models.

Maine↗
USGS2020

Generalized models to estimate carbon and nitrogen stocks of organic soil horizons in Interior Alaska

Boreal ecosystems comprise one tenth of the world’s land surface and contain over 20 % of the global soil carbon (C) stocks. Boreal soils are unique in that its mineral soil is covered by what can be quite thick layers of organic soil. These organic soil layers, or horizons, can differ in their state of decomposition, source vegetation, and disturbance history. These differences result in varying soil properties (bulk density, C concentration, and nitrogen (N) concentration) among soil horizons. Here we summarize these soil properties, as represented by over 3000 samples from Interior Alaska, and examine how soil drainage and stand age affect these attributes. The summary values presented here can be used to gap-fill large datasets when important soil properties were not measured, provide data to initialize process-based models, and validate model results. These data are available at https://doi.org/10.5066/P960N1F9 (Manies, 2019).

Alaska↗
USGS2018

The influence of nutrients from carcasses of sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) on larval growth and spawner abundance

Migrations of anadromous sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) from marine ecosystems serve as vectors of nutrients into freshwater food webs. Larval sea lamprey reside in streams for 6–8 years as deposit feeders before metamorphosing into juveniles and migrating to the ocean. Previous work has shown that carcass nutrients, which result from the death of adult lamprey after spawning, increase stream productivity and are consumed by larvae. This may increase larval growth rates and enhance earlier metamorphosis. We examined the sensitivity of life-history parameters and influence of nutrients from carcasses of sea lamprey on the age and growth of larval conspecifics with a deterministic stock-recruitment model. We hypothesized that variability in growth among larval populations is productivity mediated and we compared modeled populations in which larvae receive added growth benefits from carcass nutrients with populations that do not. The results of our simulation indicate that increases in larval growth and lower age at metamorphosis over time lead to an increase in spawner abundance. Increased growth rates may also improve fitness and bolster subsequent spawning stocks. Our research characterized 2 potential ecosystem states, one in which larval sea lamprey benefit from adult conspecifics and another in which the larvae do not.

Fishery Bulletin↗