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At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Measuring, modelling and projecting coastal land subsidence

Coastal subsidence contributes to relative sea-level rise and exacerbates flooding hazards, with the at-risk population expected to triple by 2070. Natural processes of vertical land motion, such as tectonics, glacial isostatic adjustment and sediment compaction, as well as anthropogenic processes, such as fluid extraction, lead to globally variable subsidence rates. In this Review, we discuss the key physical processes driving vertical land motion in coastal areas. Use of space-borne and land-based techniques and the associated uncertainties for monitoring subsidence are examined, as are physics-based models used to explain contemporary subsidence rates and to obtain future projections. Steady and comparatively low rates of subsidence and uplift owing to tectonic processes and glacial isostatic adjustment can be assumed for the twenty-first century. By contrast, much higher and variable subsidence rates occur owing to compaction associated with sediment loading and fluid extraction, as well as large earthquakes. These rates can be up to two orders of magnitude higher than the present-day rate of global sea-level rise. Multi-objective predictive models are required to account for the underlying physical processes and socio-economic factors that drive subsidence.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment↗
USGS2007

Science and the storms: The USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

This report is designed to give a view of the immediate response of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to four major hurricanes of 2005: Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. Some of this response took place days after the hurricanes; other responses included fieldwork and analysis through the spring. While hurricane science continues within the USGS, this overview of work following these hurricanes reveals how a Department of the Interior bureau quickly brought together a diverse array of its scientists and technologies to assess and analyze many hurricane effects. Topics vary from flooding and water quality to landscape and ecosystem impacts, from geotechnical reconnaissance to analyzing the collapse of bridges and estimating the volume of debris. Thus, the purpose of this report is to inform the American people of the USGS science that is available and ongoing in regard to hurricanes. It is the hope that such science will help inform the decisions of those citizens and officials tasked with coastal restoration and planning for future hurricanes. Chapter 1 is an essay establishing the need for science in building a resilient coast. The second chapter includes some hurricane facts that provide hurricane terminology, history, and maps of the four hurricanes’ paths. Chapters that follow give the scientific response of USGS to the storms. Both English and metric measurements are used in the articles in anticipation of both general and scientific audiences in the United States and elsewhere. Chapter 8 is a compilation of relevant ongoing and future hurricane work. The epilogue marks the 2-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. An index of authors follows the report to aid in finding articles that are cross-referenced within the report. In addition to performing the science needed to understand the effects of hurricanes, USGS employees helped in the rescue of citizens by boat and through technology by “geoaddressing” 911 calls after Katrina and Rita so that other rescuers could find persons trapped in attics and porches. They also delivered food and water to residents stranded along the lower Mississippi River for several days. That work is reported in chapter 3 of this volume. A great number of scientists contributed to this peer-reviewed report designed for a general audience. Because they work for USGS—an unbiased, multidisciplinary science organization that focuses on biology, geography, geology, geospatial information, and water—they are dedicated to the timely, relevant, and impartial study of the landscape and natural resources of the Nation, as well as natural hazards, like hurricanes, that threaten the Nation. To learn more about their work, visit the USGS Web site (www.usgs.gov).

Circular↗
USGS1996

Planar PCB Hazards to Fish, Wildlife, and Invertebrates: A Synoptic Review

Ecological and toxicological aspects of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in the environment are reviewed with emphasis on biologically active congeners and fish and wildlife. Subtopics include sources and uses, chemical and biochemical properties, concentrations in field collections, lethal and sublethal effects, and recommendations for the protection of sensitive resources. All production of PCBs in the United States ceased in 1977. Of the 1.2 million tons of PCBs manufactured to date, about 65% are still in use in electrical equipment and 31% in various environmental compartments, and 4% were degraded or incinerated. The 209 PCB congeners and their metabolites show wide differences in biological effects. A significant part of the toxicity associated with commercial PCB mixtures is related to the presence of about 20 planar congeners, i.e., congeners without chlorine substitution in the ortho position. Toxic planar congeners, like other PCB congeners, have been detected in virtually all analyzed samples, regardless of collection locale. Planar PCB concentrations were usually highest in samples from near urban areas and in fat and liver tissues, filter-feeding bivalve mollusks, fish-eating birds, and carnivorous marine mammals. Adverse effects of planar PCBs on growth, survival, and reproduction are highly variable because of numerous biotic and abiotic modifiers, including interaction with other chemicals. In general, embryos and juveniles were the most sensitive stages tested to planar PCBs, and the chinook salmon, domestic chicken, mink, rhesus macaque, and laboratory white rat were among the most sensitive species. for protection of natural resources, most authorities now recommend (1) analyzation of environmental samples for planar and other potentially hazardous congeners; (2) exposure studies with representative species and specific congeners, alone and in combination with other environmental contaminants; (3) clarification of existing structure-induction-metabolism relations; and (4) more research on physiological and biochemical indicators of PCB-stress.

Contaminant Hazard Reviews↗
USGS2020

The 3D Elevation Program and energy for the Nation

High-resolution light detection and ranging (lidar) data are used in energy infrastructure siting, design, permitting, construction, and monitoring to promote public safety through the reduction of risks. For example, lidar data are used to identify safe locations for energy infrastructure by analyzing terrain parameters and identifying and evaluating geologic hazards (for example, landslide and fault locations) and their potential public safety effects on the location or design of infrastructure. Increasingly, engineering companies and regulatory agencies are using lidar and other remote sensing techniques as an efficient method to collect accurate, comprehensive data while reducing risks to field personnel. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) is collecting lidar data nationwide (interferometric synthetic aperture radar [IfSAR] data in Alaska) to support a wide range of applications, including projects related to energy infrastructure construction and safety. Renewable energy resources, resource mining, and oil and gas resources were identified by the National Enhanced Elevation Assessment as business uses requiring three-dimensional (3D) elevation data. Elevation data are critical in assessing potential sites for energy infrastructure, such as pipelines, refineries and other facilities, to mitigate risks from natural hazards. For example, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), an independent agency that regulates the interstate transmission of electricity, natural gas, and oil, uses enhanced elevation data to conduct National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) compliance assessments. The acquisition of high-resolution lidar data by the USGS 3DEP initiative helps the FERC and NEPA permit applicants by providing accurate and consistent data for hazards analysis. The use of these data accelerates the application and review process and avoids the much higher costs of acquiring elevation data along proposed energy facility locations and pipeline corridors.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2026

PDCD-DAT: A global database of pyroclastic density current deposit field data

Pyroclastic density currents represent one of the deadliest hazards posed by active volcanoes. Analysis of their deposits provides valuable insights into their internal dynamics and informs numerical simulations of pyroclastic density currents which underpin many volcanic hazard assessments. We present PDCD-DAT, a global database of pyroclastic density current deposit characteristics compiled from peer-reviewed literature. The database includes both quantitative datasets (e.g., grain size, density, bedform dimensions, thickness) and qualitative descriptors (e.g., sedimentary structures, lithofacies). PDCD-DAT includes data from 85 source publications, covering 97 eruptions or eruptive phases, and 214 individual depositional units from 55 globally distributed volcanoes. Eruptions recorded in the database range from VEI 1–8. We highlight examples of potential applications of the database, which include (i) comparison of single deposit case studies to global datasets, (ii) informing input parameters and conditions for numerical and analogue models of pyroclastic density currents, (iii) validation of numerical and analogue models against a wide variety of natural case study deposit architectures, and (iv) estimating hazard impact metrics of pyroclastic density currents from past eruptions. We show that the database represents a useful tool for improving our ability to model pyroclastic density currents, predict their associated hazards, and understand the relationships between the internal dynamics of pyroclastic density currents and the properties of their deposits. PDCD-DAT is integrated with the FlowDat Mass Flow Database, which provides a sustainable platform for the database. We aim for PDCD-DAT to be expanded in the future through addition of pyroclastic density current deposit datasets from new field studies conducted by the volcanology research community.

Journal of Applied Volcanology↗
USGS2020

Earthquake magnitude and Lg Q variations between the Grenville and northern Appalachian geologic provinces of eastern Canada

This article assesses the ability of regionally specific, frequency‐dependent crustal attenuation ( ⁠ 1 / Q "> 1 / Q ⁠ ) to reduce mean magnitude discrepancies between seismic stations in the northern Appalachian and Grenville provinces (NAP and GP) of Canada. Lg Q ( f ) "> Q ( f ) is an important parameter in ground‐motion models used in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Discrepancies in regional magnitude estimates have long been noted to exist between stations in the two provinces for common event origins. Such discrepancies could arise from systematic site condition variations between the geologic provinces or from varying crustal attenuative properties. To evaluate the effect of frequency‐dependent anelastic attenuation, Lg Q ( f ) "> Q ( f ) on estimated magnitudes, we analyze Lg amplitudes from > 6000 "> > 6000 waveforms recorded by Grenville and northern Appalachian receivers from 420 natural earthquakes of M N "> M N magnitude 3–5.6. Waveform analysis is strictly limited to analyst‐reviewed, vertical‐component waveforms in which Lg is clearly identified, ensuring that the datasets exhibit dominant, high‐frequency energy in the Lg velocity window. Lg Q ( f ) "> Q ( f ) is found to be higher in the GP than in the northern Appalachians. In the Grenville, Q ( f ) = 761 ( ± 145 ) f 0.25 ( ± 0.014 ) "> Q ( f ) = 761 ( ± 145 ) f 0.25 ( ± 0.014 ) ⁠ , and in the northern Appalachians, attenuation is higher: Q ( f ) = 506 ( ± 172 ) f 0.33 ( ± 0.310 ) "> Q ( f ) = 506 ( ± 172 ) f 0.33 ( ± 0.310 ) . Earthquake magnitude determined using the peak amplitude of the Lg phase ( ⁠ m b L g "> m b L g ) for eastern Canada is corrected to incorporate the frequency‐dependent, regionally specific Lg Q ( f ) "> Q ( f ) determined in this study. Using the new Lg Q ( f ) "> Q ( f ) values diminishes and nearly resolves magnitude discrepancies between the provinces. Correcting regional magnitude discrepancies between provinces is critical for reliable regional seismic hazard estimates because magnitude error in a particular region could lead to increased uncertainty in seismic hazard models.

Grenville Geologic Province, Northern Appalachian ↗
USGS2001

Geology and natural history of the San Francisco Bay area: A field-trip guidebook

A National Association of Geoscience Teachers Far Western Section (NAGT-FWS) field conference is an ideal forum for learning about the geology and natural history of the San Francisco Bay area. We visit classic field sites, renew old friendships, and make new ones. This collection of papers includes field guides and road logs for all of the Bay-area trips held during the NAGT-FWS 2001 Fall Field Conference and supplemental chapters on other aspects of the area’s natural and human history. The trips touch on many aspects of the geology and natural hazards of the Bay area, especially urban problems associated with living on an active tectonic plate margin: earthquake faults, coastal erosion, landslides, and the utilization of land and natural resources. We hope this conference not only provides a two-day learning opportunity for conference participants but that students and educators will use this field guidebook for future teaching and research. Many thanks are due to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and San José State University (SJSU) for cohosting the conference. We are grateful to each of the field trip leaders for preparing the trips and writing the accompanying guides. We especially appreciate the many hours put in by the guidebook reviewers, Robert I. Tilling (USGS) and Paula Messina (SJSU), and to the USGS Western Publications Group for editing, layout, and web posting. Additional guidebook contributions include articles by John Galloway, Scott Starratt, Page Mosier, and Susan Toussaint. During the conference guest speakers include Robert I. Tilling (USGS Volcano Hazards Team) and Ross Stein (USGS Earthquake Hazards Team). Workshops prepared for the conference include GIS in the classroom, using USGS data by John Vogel (USGS) and Paula Messina (SJSU), and The Best of BAESI (Bay Area Earth Science Institute), a teacher training organization under the direction of Ellen Metzger (SJSU) and Richard Sedlock (SJSU). The conference provides an opportunity to showcase USGS scientific and education resources with self-guided tours of the USGS Library, the Earth Science Information Center (ESIC), the Visitor Center, and various laboratories on the USGS campus and includes a half-day participatory tour of the USGS research vessel the R/V Polaris and the USGS Marine Facility at the Port of Redwood City under the direction of Cynthia L. Brown, Francis Parchaso, and Tara Schraga. Beyond the names mentioned above, a host of USGS and SJSU staff, SJSU students, and NAGT-FWS members contributed to the preparation and orchestration of the conference. We couldn’t have done it alone. Leslie C. Gordon (USGS), Philip W. Stoffer (USGS), and Deborah Harden (SJSU) NAGT-FWS 2001 Fall Field Conference Organizers.

California↗
USGS2010

Gas transport in unsaturated porous media: The adequacy of Fick's law

The increasing use of natural unsaturated zones as repositories for landfills and disposal sites for hazardous wastes (chemical and radioactive) requires a greater understanding of transport processes in the unsaturated zone. For volatile constituents an important potential transport mechanism is gaseous diffusion. Diffusion, however, cannot be treated as an independent isolated transport mechanism. A complete understanding of multicomponent gas transport in porous media (unsaturated zones) requires a knowledge of Knudsen transport, the molecular and nonequimolar components of diffusive flux, and viscous (pressure driven) flux. The constitutive equations relating these flux components are available from the “dusty gas” model of Mason et al. (1967). This review presents a brief discussion of the underlying principles and interrelationships among each of the above flux mechanisms. Some aspects of these transport mechanisms are, to our knowledge, generally unrecognized in the Earth science literature. The principles underlying the transport mechanisms are illustrated with binary systems; the constitutive equations are then cast in forms thought to be most useful for the study of natural unsaturated zones. The viscous and diffusive fluxes are coupled in the constitutive equations through the Knudsen diffusivities; a knowledge of Knudsen diffusivities is necessary to calculate the viscous component of flux and pressure gradients. The Knudsen diffusivities can be calculated from measurements of the Klinkenberg effect. Two examples are presented showing that in natural systems, very small pressure gradients (1 Pa/m or less) can produce viscous fluxes greater than or equal to diffusive fluxes and that, conversely, pressure gradients of this magnitude can be generated by diffusive processes. The example calculations show that major concentration gradients can be developed for stagnant (zero flux, nonreactive) gases. A method is presented for approximating the viscous and diffusive flux components of gases in a multicomponent system from a knowledge of the concentration profiles of stagnant gases. In subsoil environments, argon and nitrogen are considered to be stagnant gases. Fick's laws are essentially, by definition, inadequate to deal with stagnant gases. In the examples presented, the error associated with estimating the total fluxes of nonstagnant gases by Fick's law, relative to stationary coordinates, ranges from a few percent to orders of magnitude.

Reviews of Geophysics↗
USGS2021

Toward an integrative geological and geophysical view of Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes

The Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) is an exceptional geologic environment for recording evidence of land level changes, tsunamis, and ground motion that reveals at least 19 great megathrust earthquakes over the past 10 kyr. Such earthquakes are among the most impactful natural hazards on Earth, transcend national boundaries, and can have global impact. Reducing the societal impacts of future events in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and coastal British Columbia, Canada requires improved scientific understanding of megathrust earthquake rupture, recurrence, and corresponding hazards. Despite substantial knowledge gained from decades of research, large uncertainties remain about the characteristics and frequencies of past CSZ earthquakes. In this review, we summarize geological, geophysical, and instrumental evidence relevant to understanding megathrust earthquakes along the CSZ and associated uncertainties. We discuss how the evidence constrains various models of great megathrust earthquake recurrence in Cascadia and identify potential paths forward for the earthquake science community.

British Columbia, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2009

Quaternary science reviews Pacific Basin tsunami hazards associated with mass flows in the Aleutian arc of Alaska

We analyze mass-flow tsunami generation for selected areas within the Aleutian arc of Alaska using results from numerical simulation of hypothetical but plausible mass-flow sources such as submarine landslides and volcanic debris avalanches. The Aleutian arc consists of a chain of volcanic mountains, volcanic islands, and submarine canyons, surrounded by a low-relief continental shelf above about 1000–2000 m water depth. Parts of the arc are fragmented into a series of fault-bounded blocks, tens to hundreds of kilometers in length, and separated from one another by distinctive fault-controlled canyons that are roughly normal to the arc axis. The canyons are natural regions for the accumulation and conveyance of sediment derived from glacial and volcanic processes. The volcanic islands in the region include a number of historically active volcanoes and some possess geological evidence for large-scale sector collapse into the sea. Large scale mass-flow deposits have not been mapped on the seafloor south of the Aleutian Islands, in part because most of the area has never been examined at the resolution required to identify such features, and in part because of the complex nature of erosional and depositional processes. Extensive submarine landslide deposits and debris flows are known on the north side of the arc and are common in similar settings elsewhere and thus they likely exist on the trench slope south of the Aleutian Islands. Because the Aleutian arc is surrounded by deep, open ocean, mass flows of unconsolidated debris that originate either as submarine landslides or as volcanic debris avalanches entering the sea may be potential tsunami sources. To test this hypothesis we present a series of numerical simulations of submarine mass-flow initiated tsunamis from eight different source areas. We consider four submarine mass flows originating in submarine canyons and four flows that evolve from submarine landslides on the trench slope. The flows have lengths that range from 40 to 80 km, maximum thicknesses of 400–800 m, and maximum widths of 10–40 km. We also evaluate tsunami generation by volcanic debris avalanches associated with flank collapse, at four locations (Makushin, Cleveland, Seguam and Yunaska SW volcanoes), which represent large to moderate sized events in this region. We calculate tsunami sources using the numerical model TOPICS and simulate wave propagation across the Pacific using a spherical Boussinesq model, which is a modified version of the public domain code FUNWAVE. Our numerical simulations indicate that geologically plausible mass flows originating in the North Pacific near the Aleutian Islands can indeed generate large local tsunamis as well as large transoceanic tsunamis. These waves may be several meters in elevation at distal locations, such as Japan, Hawaii, and along the North and South American coastlines where they would constitute significant hazards.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Grand Canyon River Alerts: An emergency alert system designed for satellite texting devices

The Grand Canyon River Alert system is now live! The U.S. Geological Survey, Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC), in collaboration with Coconino County Emergency Management (CCEM), the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Park Service (NPS), have developed and implemented a framework for sending emergency alerts to boaters and hikers in Grand Canyon. The system is specifically designed to send alerts to satellite texting devices, such those sold by Garmin and SPOT, and is a first of its kind in the nation. Alert messaging will be provided by NPS, NWS, or the Bureau of Reclamation depending on the nature of the incident. CCEM will disseminate alert messaging to devices subscribed to the Grand Canyon River Alerts list. Boating hazards, missing persons, critical dam related events, and extreme weather and flash flood hazards will be included in alert messaging.

Arizona↗
USGS2023

Considering pollinators' ecosystem services in the remediation and restoration of contaminated lands: Overview of research and its gaps

The concept of ecosystem services provides a useful framework for understanding how people are affected by changes to the natural environment, such as when a contaminant is introduced (e.g., oil spills, hazardous substance releases) or, conversely, when contaminated lands are remediated and restored. Pollination is one example of an important ecosystem service; pollinators play a critical role in any functioning terrestrial ecosystem. Other studies have suggested that consideration of pollinators' ecosystem services could lead to better remediation and restoration outcomes. However, the associated relationships can be complex, and evaluation requires synthesis from numerous disciplines. In this article, we discuss the possibilities for considering pollinators and their ecosystem services when planning remediation and restoration of contaminated lands. To inform the discussion, we introduce a general conceptual model of how pollinators and the ecosystem services associated with them could be affected by contamination in the environment. We review the literature on the conceptual model components, including contaminant effects on pollinators and the direct and indirect ecosystem services provided by pollinators, and identify information gaps. Though increased public interest in pollinators likely reflects increasing recognition of their role in providing many important ecosystem services, our review indicates that many gaps in understanding—about relevant natural and social systems—currently impede the rigorous quantification and evaluation of pollinators' ecosystem services required for many applications, such as in the context of natural resource damage assessment. Notable gaps include information on non-honeybee pollinators and on ecosystem services beyond those benefitting the agricultural sector. We then discuss potential research priorities and implications for practitioners. Focused research attention on the areas highlighted in this review holds promise for increasing the possibilities for considering pollinators' ecosystem services in the remediation and restoration of contaminated lands.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management↗
USGS2019

Extreme coastal water level in Washington state: Guidance to support sea level rise planning

This document provides guidelines for assessing exposure to future coastal flooding during extreme coastal water level events – whether these are due to tides, surge, wave run-up, or, more likely, a combination of the three. These guidelines provide information about the current and future magnitude of extreme coastal water levels across Washington State and the underlying processes that influence them. This information is intended to be combined with sea level projections to assess future exposure to coastal flooding along Washington’s coastline. Although the results of our analyses can be combined with any available sea level projections, this report is intended as a companion to the localized sea level rise projections (Miller et al., 2018) developed as part of the Washington Coastal Resilience Project. The Washington Coastal Resilience Project was a three-year effort to rapidly increase the state’s capacity to prepare for sea level rise. The project aimed to improve risk projections, provide better guidelines for land use planners and strengthen capital investment programs for coastal restoration and infrastructure. Partners in the Washington Coastal Resilience Project included Washington Sea Grant, Washington Department of Ecology, Island County, King County, NOAA Office for Coastal Management, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Padilla Bay National Estuary Research Reserve, The City of Tacoma, The Nature Conservancy, U.S. Geological Survey, University of Oregon, University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife and Western Washington University. The 2018 sea level projections are described in an accompanying technical report, along with a review of the science related to sea level rise (Miller et al., 2018). The report and all associated supporting information are available on the Washington Coastal Hazards Resilience Network website (http://www.wacoastalnetwork.com/).

Washington↗
USGS2022

Considerations for creating equitable and inclusive communication campaigns associated with ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the USA

Purpose The 2019 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR) cites earthquakes as the most damaging natural hazard globally, causing billions of dollars of damage and killing thousands of people. Earthquakes have the potential to drastically impact physical, social and economic landscapes; to reduce this risk, earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been developed. However, these technical EEW systems do not operate in a vacuum; the inequities in social systems, along with the needs of diverse populations, must be considered when developing these systems and their associated communication campaigns. Design/methodology/approach This article reviews aspects of social vulnerability as they relate to ShakeAlert, the EEW system for the USA. The authors identified two theories (relationship management theory and mute group theory) to inform self-reflective questions for agencies managing campaigns for EEW systems, which can assist in the development of more inclusive communication practices. Finally, the authors suggest this work contributes to important conversations about diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) issues within early warning systems and earthquake preparedness campaigns in general. Findings To increase inclusivity, Macnamara (2012) argues that self-reflective questioning while analyzing perspective, philosophy and approaches for a campaign can help. Specific to EEW campaigns, developers may find self-reflective questions a useful approach to increase inclusion. These questions are guided by two theories and are explored in the paper. Research limitations/implications Several research limitations exist. First, this work explores two theories to develop a combined theoretical model for self-reflective questions. Further research is required to determine if this approach and the combination of these two theories have adequately informed the development of the reflective questions. Orginality/value The authors could find little peer-reviewed work examining DEI for EEW systems, and ShakeAlert in particular. While articles on early warning systems exist that explore aspects of this, EEW and ShakeAlert, with its very limited time frames for warnings, creates unique challenges.

West Coast↗
USGS2014

The lifecycle of silver in the United States in 2009

Because silver is highly sought after for its properties, which make it eminently suitable for new technology applications, a clear understanding of the flow of materials in the economy, the historical context, and trends for the future can help project the future of silver in the economy of the United States. Silver has many properties that are desired in today’s economy. It has superior electrical and heat conductivity, chemical stability, high-temperature strength, malleability, and other characteristics that make it important in high-tech electronic and other industrial applications. Because it is relatively scarce as a natural resource and is easily coined, silver historically has been an important monetary metal. As knowledge of silver chemistry has increased, many industrial end uses have been developed. This study reviews the flows of silver into various end uses and examines the nature of the end use with respect to the silver properties desired and the ability of the end use to produce recyclable end-of-life materials. For the most part, silver can be profitably recycled, but the recycling activity is helped by tipping fees (fees imposed on scrap generators by scrap collectors for taking the material) for materials that might otherwise be regulated as hazardous wastes. New high-technology applications use silver in nanolevel amounts, leading to a potential for dissipative loss and reduced recycling capability.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2016

Detecting sea-level hazards: Simple regression-based methods for calculating the acceleration of sea level

This report documents the development of statistical tools used to quantify the hazard presented by the response of sea-level elevation to natural or anthropogenic changes in climate and ocean circulation. A hazard is a physical process (or processes) that, when combined with vulnerability (or susceptibility to the hazard), results in risk. This study presents the development and comparison of new and existing sea-level analysis methods, exploration of the strengths and weaknesses of the methods using synthetic time series, and when appropriate, synthesis of the application of the method to observed sea-level time series. These reports are intended to enhance material presented in peer-reviewed journal articles where it is not always possible to provide the level of detail that might be necessary to fully support or recreate published results. The purpose of this report is to document and compare three simple methodologies that have previously been used to provide estimates with associated errors of the acceleration of sea-level elevation. These techniques have been used by coastal scientists and planners in assessing coastal risk over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Because relative sea-level (SL) elevation time series contain energetic fluctuations at many time scales, extracting what can be relatively small rate and acceleration signals (along with estimates of the error) from much larger “noise” has proven to be both difficult and controversial. Acceleration is a preferred measure of SL response to recent changes in the Earth’s climate because over time scales of 100 years or less slow vertical land motions (such as glacial isostatic adjustment) contribute only to the linear signal and not to acceleration, thus reducing the complexity of the analysis. Hence acceleration is useful if the goal of a study is to characterize and quantify the hazard associated with the changing relative elevation of water with respect to land on decadal time scales. Although in some cases it may be necessary to determine the cause of relative sea level rise, as a first step, it is important to accurately estimate the magnitude of the threat. Most researchers agree that global sea level (GSL) rose persistently through much of the 20th century at about 1.5–2.0 millimeters per year (mm/yr). There is far less agreement about whether the rate of sea-level rise (SLR) is increasing (that is, an acceleration in SL). Recent studies, and most of their predecessors, use tide gage data to quantify SL acceleration, A SL (t). In the current study, three techniques were used to calculate acceleration from tide gage data, and of those examined, it was determined that the two techniques based on sliding a regression window through the time series are more robust compared to the technique that fits a single quadratic form to the entire time series, particularly if there is temporal variation in the magnitude of the acceleration. The single-fit quadratic regression method has been the most commonly used technique in determining acceleration in tide gage data. The inability of the single-fit method to account for time-varying acceleration may explain some of the inconsistent findings between investigators. Properly quantifying A SL (t) from field measurements is of particular importance in evaluating numerical models of past, present, and future SLR resulting from anticipated climate change.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2012

Models, validation, and applied geochemistry: Issues in science, communication, and philosophy

Models have become so fashionable that many scientists and engineers cannot imagine working without them. The predominant use of computer codes to execute model calculations has blurred the distinction between code and model. The recent controversy regarding model validation has brought into question what we mean by a ‘model’ and by ‘validation.’ It has become apparent that the usual meaning of validation may be common in engineering practice and seems useful in legal practice but it is contrary to scientific practice and brings into question our understanding of science and how it can best be applied to such problems as hazardous waste characterization, remediation, and aqueous geochemistry in general. This review summarizes arguments against using the phrase model validation and examines efforts to validate models for high-level radioactive waste management and for permitting and monitoring open-pit mines. Part of the controversy comes from a misunderstanding of ‘prediction’ and the need to distinguish logical from temporal prediction. Another problem stems from the difference in the engineering approach contrasted with the scientific approach. The reductionist influence on the way we approach environmental investigations also limits our ability to model the interconnected nature of reality. Guidelines are proposed to improve our perceptions and proper utilization of models. Use of the word ‘validation’ is strongly discouraged when discussing model reliability.

Applied Geochemistry↗
USGS2018

Opportunities to enhance seismic demand parameters for future editions of the AS1170.4

Geoscience Australia has recently released its 2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment (NSHA18). Results from the NSHA18 indicate significantly lower seismic hazard across almost all Australian localities at the 1/500 annual exceedance probability level relative to the factors adopted for the current Australian Standard AS1170.4–2007 (R2018). These new hazard estimates, coupled with larger probability factors (kp) for long return periods, have challenged notions of seismic hazard in Australia in terms of the recurrence of damaging ground motions. As a consequence, the new hazard estimates have raised questions over the appropriateness of the prescribed National Construction Code probability level as used in the AS1170.4 to determine appropriate seismic demands for the design of ordinary-use structures. Therefore, it is suggested that the ground-motion exceedance probability used in the current AS1170.4 be reviewed in light of the recent hazard assessment and the expected performance of modern buildings for rarer ground motions. Whilst adjusting the AS1170.4 exceedance probability level would be a major departure from previous earthquake loading standards, it would bring it into line with other international building codes in similar tectonic environments. Additionally, it would offer opportunities to further modernise how seismic demands are considered in Australian building design. In particular, the authors highlight the following additional opportunities: 1) the use of uniform hazard spectra to replace and simplify the spectral shape factors, which do not deliver uniform hazard across all natural periods; 2) updated site amplification factors to ensure continuity with modern ground-motion models, and; 3) the potential to define design ground motions in terms of uniform collapse risk rather than uniform hazard. Estimation of seismic hazard at any location is an uncertain science. However, as our knowledge improves, our estimates of the hazard will converge more closely to the actual – but unknowable – (time independent) hazard. It is therefore prudent to regularly update the estimates of the seismic demands in our building codes using the best available evidence-based methods and models.

Conference Paper↗