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USGS2024

Introduction and methods of analysis for peak streamflow trends and their relation to changes in climate in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin

Flood-frequency analysis, also called peak-flow frequency or flood-flow frequency analysis, is essential to water resources management applications including critical structure design and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for doing flood-frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods Report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C is that for drainage basins without major hydrologic alterations, statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows (peak flows) are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant. The stationarity assumption has been widely accepted within the flood-frequency community; however, a better understanding of long-term climatic persistence and concerns about potential climate change and land-use change has caused a reexamination of the stationarity assumption. Flood-frequency analyses that do not incorporate observed trends and abrupt changes may result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. Bulletin 17C does not offer guidance for incorporating nonstationarities when estimating floods, and it describes a need for studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics. In response to this need and a history of concern regarding nonstationarity peak flows in the region, this study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Departments of Transportation of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation; and the North Dakota Department of Water Resources, to assess potential nonstationarity in peak flows in the north-central United States. This chapter summarizes the methods used to detect hydroclimatic changes in peak-flow data in the study region. A wide range of analyses and statistical approaches are applied to document the primary mechanisms controlling floods and characterize temporal changes in hydroclimatic variables and peak flow. Four periods were selected for analysis of peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate data. The periods are (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. The climate data consist of monthly time series estimates of temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, snowfall, soil moisture storage, snow water equivalent, and runoff on a 3.1-mile by 3.1-mile grid for the conterminous United States. Statistical and graphical analyses were used to investigate potential changes in hydrology and climate. The starting point for these analyses was the initial data analysis of peak flow described in Bulletin 17C, which includes plotting the peak flow and checking for autocorrelation, monotonic trends, and changes points. Analyses were added to examine additional features in the data. To examine potential causal drivers of changes, the climate data were analyzed graphically and statistically. Results are provided in a U.S. Geological Survey data release. The study limitations are documented for users of the results.

Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Mon↗

USGS2024

Peak streamflow trends in South Dakota and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

Peak-flow (flood) frequency analysis is essential to water-resources management applications, including the design of critical infrastructure such as bridges and culverts, and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for performing peak-flow flood frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods Report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C, which documents the guidelines for determining annual peak streamflow frequency, is that, for basins without major hydrologic alterations (for example, regulation, diversion, and urbanization), statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant through time. Nonstationarity is a statistical property of a peak-flow series such that the long-term (on the order of decades) distributional properties change one or more times either gradually or abruptly through time. Individual nonstationarities may be attributed to one source such as flow regulation, land-use change, or climate but are often the result of a combination of sources, making detection and attribution of nonstationarities challenging. In response to a growing concern regarding nonstationarity in peak streamflows in the region, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Departments of Transportation of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation; and the North Dakota Department of Water Resources, assessed the potential nonstationarity in peak streamflows in the north-central United States. This chapter characterizes the effects of natural hydroclimatic shifts and potential climate change on annual peak streamflows in the State of South Dakota. Annual peak and daily streamflow as well as model-simulated gridded climatic data were examined for temporal monotonic trends, change points, and other statistical properties indicative of changing climatic and environmental conditions. Changes in annual peak and daily flows were evaluated among 13, 35, and 81 qualifying U.S. Geological Survey streamgages for the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods through water year 2020 (the period from October 1, 2019, to September 30, 2020) in South Dakota, respectively. No qualifying streamgages were in the 100-year trend period in the State. Statistical tests for autocorrelation (independent and identically distributed assumption), monotonic trends, and change points in the median and scale are analyzed to evaluate potential stationarity violations (nonstationarity) for performing at-site peak-flow flood-frequency analysis. The trends are reported using a likelihood approach as an alternative to simply reporting significant trends with an arbitrary p -value cutoff point. A distinct east-west spatial pattern of likely upward and downward monotonic trends and change points, respectively, was detected in 75- and 50-year trend periods, but an inconsistent spatial pattern was detected in the 30-year trend period. Additionally, change points in the median annual peak streamflows were detected in the late 1970s and early 1980s in the western part of the State, but in the east, the change point was more commonly detected in 1992–93. A similar east-west spatial pattern of likely upward and downward trends was detected in the annual peak-flow timing, the day of the year of the annal peak streamflow. In the western part of the State, the annual peak streamflows are arriving earlier, but in the east, the annual peak streamflows are arriving later. A peaks-over-threshold (POT) analysis where, on average, there are two events per year (POT2) and four events per year (POT4) was also used to evaluate changes in the frequency (count) of daily streamflows exceeding the threshold. Similar to detected changes in the annual peak streamflow, an east-west likely upward or downward change corresponding to an increase or decrease, respectively, in the frequency of daily streamflow greater than a POT2 and POT4 threshold was detected. A monthly water-balance model was used to evaluate hydroclimatic variation in annual and seasonal precipitation, snowfall, potential evapotranspiration, and soil moisture storage for all qualifying streamgages in the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods. Detected trends in the annual hydroclimatic metrics for the 75- and 50-year trend periods indicate a spatially consistent statewide increase in precipitation, decrease in snowfall, increase in potential evapotranspiration, and increase in soil moisture storage. Furthermore, detected trends in seasonal precipitation in the 75- and 50-year trend periods highlight a pronounced change in precipitation in winter and later into the summer season, especially in the 50-year trend period in the eastern part of the State. Statewide increases in seasonal soil moisture storage were also detected, highlighting year-round increasing flood magnitudes, particularly in the eastern part of the State. Based on the results of these stationarity tests for the qualifying streamgages in South Dakota among the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods, consistent temporal and spatial patterns of nonstationarity were detected among the 75- and 50-year trend periods. Furthermore, when nonstationarity is detected in daily streamflow, increased streamflow and volume (increasing frequency in POT), as well as potentially bridge scour, may have implications on culvert and highway design in the eastern part of South Dakota. Thus, when performing at-site peak-flow flood-frequency analyses in South Dakota, potential nonstationarities and alternative approaches are important considerations.

South Dakota↗

USGS2015

Evaluating the importance of abiotic and biotic drivers on Bythotrephes biomass in Lakes Superior and Michigan

The ability of planktivorous fishes to exert top-down control on Bythotrephes potentially has far-reaching impacts on aquatic food-webs, given previously described effects of Bythotrephes on zooplankton communities. We estimated consumption of Bythotrephes by planktivorous and benthivorous fishes, using bioenergetics and daily ration models at nearshore (18 m), intermediate (46 m), and offshore (110 m) depths along one western Lake Superior transect (April, and September-November) and two northern Lake Michigan transects (April, July, September). In Lake Superior, consumption (primarily by cisco Coregonus artedi) exceeded Bythotrephes production at all offshore sites in September-November (up to 396% of production consumed) and at the intermediate site in November (842%) with no evidence of consumption nearshore. By comparing Bythotrephes biomass following months of excessive consumption, we conservatively concluded that top-down control was evident only at the offshore site during September-October. In Lake Michigan, consumption by fishes (primarily alewife Alosa pseudoharengus) exceeded production at nearshore sites (up to 178%), but not in deeper sites (< 15%). Evidence for top-down control in the nearshore was not supported, however, as Bythotrephes never subsequently declined. Using generalized additive models, temperature, and not fish consumption, not zooplankton prey density, best explained variability in Bythotrephes biomass. The non-linear pattern revealed Bythotrephes to increase with temperature up to 16 °C, and then decline between 16 and 23 °C. We discuss how temperature likely has direct negative impacts on Bythotrephes when temperatures near 23 °C, but speculate that predation also contributes to declining biomass when temperatures exceed 16 °C.

Wisconsin and Michigan↗

USGS2024

Range-wide population genomic structure of the Karner blue butterfly, Plebejus (Lycaeides) samuelis

The Karner blue butterfly, Plebejus ( Lycaeides ) samuelis , is an endangered North American climate change-vulnerable species that has undergone substantial historical habitat loss and population decline. To better understand the species' genetic status and support Karner blue conservation, we sampled 116 individuals from 22 localities across the species' geographical range in Wisconsin (WI), Michigan (MI), Indiana (IN), and New York (NY). Using genomic analysis, we found that these samples were divided into three major geographic groups, NY, WI, and MI-IN, with populations in WI and MI-IN each further divided into three subgroups. A high level of inbreeding was revealed by inbreeding coefficients above 10% in almost all populations in our study. However, strong correlation between F ST and geographical distance suggested that genetic divergence between populations increases with distance, such that introducing individuals from more distant populations may be a useful strategy for increasing population-level diversity and preserving the species. We also found that Karner blue populations had lower genetic diversity than closely related species and had more alleles that were present only at low frequencies (<5%) in other species. Some of these alleles may negatively impact individual fitness and may have become prevalent in Karner blue populations due to inbreeding. Finally, analysis of these possibly deleterious alleles in the context of predicted three-dimensional structures of proteins revealed potential molecular mechanisms behind population declines, providing insights for conservation. This rich new range-wide understanding of the species' population genomic structure can contextualize past extirpations and help conserve and even enhance Karner blue genetic diversity.

Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2014

A previously unrecognized path of early Holocene base flow and elevated discharge from Lake Minong to Lake Chippewa across eastern Upper Michigan

It has long been hypothesized that flux of fresh meltwater from glacial Lake Minong in North America's Superior Basin to the North Atlantic Ocean triggered rapid climatic shifts during the early Holocene. The spatial context of recent support for this idea demands a reevaluation of the exit point of meltwater from the Superior Basin. We used ground penetrating radar (GPR), foundation borings from six highway bridges, a GIS model of surface topography, geologic maps, U.S. Department of Agriculture–Natural Resources Conservation Service soils maps, and well logs to investigate the possible linkage of Lake Minong with Lake Chippewa in the Lake Michigan Basin across eastern Upper Michigan. GPR suggests that a connecting channel lies buried beneath the present interlake divide at Danaher. A single optical age hints that the channel aggraded to 225 m as elevated receipt of Lake Agassiz meltwater in the Superior Basin began to wane <10.6 ka. The large supply of sediment required to accommodate aggradation was immediately available at the channel's edge in the littoral shelves of abandoned Lake Algonquin and in distal parts of post-Algonquin fans. As discharge decreased further, the aggraded channel floor was quickly breached and interbasin flow to Lake Chippewa was restored. Basal radiocarbon ages on wood from small lakes along the discharge path and a GIS model of Minong's shoreline are consistent with another transgression of Minong after ca. 9.5 ka. At the peak of the latter transgression, the southeastern rim of the Superior Basin (Nadoway Drift Barrier) failed, ending Lake Minong. Upon Minong's final drop, aggradational sediments were deposited at Danaher, infilling the prior breach.

Michigan↗

USGS2022

A landscape approach for identifying potential reestablishment sites for extirpated stream fishes: an example with Arctic grayling (Thymallus arcticus) in Michigan

Habitat degradation combined with climate change increases the threat of extinction for stream fishes. In response to these threats, efforts to reestablish species within formerly occupied streams or translocation to suitable areas may be effective conservation strategies. In the absence of historic species presence data, identifying locations where suitable habitat exists across many fluvial habitats may limit the effectiveness of reestablishments. We present an approach that ranks habitat for stream fish reestablishment over large areas using best available information. Using the locally extirpated Arctic grayling ( Thymallus arcticus ) in Michigan, USA as an example, we integrate information on species preferences and relationships between species with similar habitat requirements and landscape predictors of habitat to rank stream suitability. We find that unfragmented streams throughout the historical range of Arctic grayling and areas previously unoccupied by the species are potential locations for conservation action. However, we note that projected increases in summer water temperatures may reduce the amount of thermally suitable habitat in some top-ranked locations by up to 30%. Given its inherent flexibility in data requirements, our landscape-level approach may be a valuable tool that supports planning for species reestablishment.

Michigan↗

USGS2011

Science as a fundamental framework for shaping policy discussions regarding the use of groundwater in the State of Michigan: A case study

The availability and use of freshwater is a growing concern in the United States and around the globe. Despite apparently abundant water resources, several conflicts over water use have emerged in the Great Lakes region and the State of Michigan. These conflicts resulted in state legislation that both addresses water withdrawal from the Great Lakes Basin and requires the State of Michigan to begin a process to address the sustainability of water resources. The former resulted in Michigan's support of the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River Water Resources Compact, whereas the latter resulted in the formation of a Groundwater Conservation Advisory Council. This paper focuses primarily on the Council, describing its formation, and the products it generated. In particular, we focus on the development of indicators of sustainable use of water, the creation of a water withdrawal assessment process to determine if a proposed withdrawal will create an adverse resource impact in the state, and how the lessons learned in Michigan may be applied to other units of government addressing similar issues. Attention is also given to the Compact, as it provides important context for the Council's formation.

Michigan↗

USGS2025

Aggregating three sources of long-term trends of swallows and martins to identify priority conservation areas in the Great Lakes region

1. Long-term monitoring of bird populations across scales is important in evaluating conservation targets and creating effective conservation strategies. For nearly six decades, the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) has served as the primary broad-scaled source of relative abundance trends of swallows and martins in North America. Recently, however, it has become possible to obtain breeding population trends using semi-structured eBird community science data. Moreover, weather surveil-lance radar data of swallow and martin roosting populations yield a third complementary source of trend information. 2. Using results from these three approaches, we propose a novel method of spatially combining estimates of percent change per year into a probability of directional agreement and/or disagreement that describes (1) the direction of the trend within a given region, (2) the amount of evidence associated with the estimate and (3) how much uncertainty surrounds it. We focus our efforts on an area of high Hirundinidae concentration in the North American Great Lakes region and predict trends from 2012 to 2022. 3. We found a high probability of agreement between all three sources about ob-served declines in swallow and martin trends in the region surrounding Lake Ontario and to the west of Lake Michigan. Focusing future research on these regions could improve our understanding of these declines and help build more targeted conservation initiatives. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our data integration methodology allows managers to identify regions that accumulate evidence of concerning trends across multiple wildlife monitoring schemes. These regions can thus be prioritized in conservation and management efforts. This approach can be generalized to other sources of long-term monitoring data of different species, at different stages of their annual cycle, in any geographic location.

Great Lakes region↗

USGS1987

Recent changes in Lake Michigan's fish community and their probable causes, with emphasis on the role of the alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus)

Deepwater ciscoes ( Coregonus spp.) or "chubs" of Lake Michigan far surpassed those of Lake Huron in yield, population density, and resilience following severe depletion in the 1960s and 1970s, when the bloater ( C . hoyi ) composed more than 90% of the stocks. The population decline of bloaters in recent decades was mainly attributed to exploitation, to the depression of chub recruitment (e.g. from inferred predation on early life stages) by nonendemic alewives ( Alosa pseudoharengus ) and rainbow smelt ( Osmerus mordax ), and to complications arising from extreme female predominance that was best documented for Lake Michigan. The various interactions between bloaters and the nonendemic species, which were intensified after the loss of large predators to sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ), would help to explain why a stock–recruitment relation was not shown for the Lake Michigan bloater. We hypothesize that reproductive inefficiency caused by a shift to strong female predominance in the bloater depresses recruitment and thus helps to regulate abundance. However, the low resilience that sex imbalance seems to impart makes the stock unstable when exploited. It should therefore be exploited conservatively during such periods. Also, the sex ratio and its direction of change appear to be important qualifiers when surplus production is estimated from stock size.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2025

Hydroclimatic and land-use factors affecting peak streamflow in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin

Flood-frequency analysis provides the basis for flood risk estimates used by water-resource managers in land-use planning, and it informs the design of essential infrastructure such as bridges and culverts. Federal guidelines for flood-frequency analysis do not offer guidance on addressing changing climate and land-use conditions when estimating floods. However, failing to consider climatic and land-use changes that cause abrupt or gradual changes in flood regimes can result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. In response to concerns about changing flood regimes, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with nine State agencies (Illinois Department of Transportation, Iowa Department of Transportation, Michigan Department of Transportation, Minnesota Department of Transportation, Missouri Department of Transportation, Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, North Dakota Department of Water Resources, South Dakota Department of Transportation, and Wisconsin Department of Transportation) began a study to examine variability and change in hydrology and climate and the effects of urbanization and tile drainage on flooding. The analyses of patterns and changes in hydrology and climate were reported in a multichapter Scientific Investigations Report, the findings of which are summarized in this U.S. Geological Survey Circular. Additional analyses documenting changes in seasonality of flooding and the effects of urbanization and tile drainage were completed and published as separate studies and are also summarized in this Circular. These studies provide extensive exploratory analysis of peak streamflow, daily streamflow, and climate data, setting the stage for advancements in flood-frequency analysis.

Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Mon↗

USGS2014

Conservation Action Planning: Lessons learned from the St. Marys River watershed biodiversity conservation planning process

Conservation Action Planning (CAP) is an adaptive management planning process refined by The Nature Conservancy (TNC) and embraced worldwide as the Open Standards for the Practice of Conservation. The CAP process facilitates open, multi-institutional collaboration on a common conservation agenda through organized actions and quantified results. While specifically designed for conservation efforts, the framework is adaptable and flexible to multiple scales and can be used for any collaborative planning effort. The CAP framework addresses inception; design and development of goals, measures, and strategies; and plan implementation and evaluation. The specific components of the CAP include defining the project scope and conservation targets; assessing the ecological viability; ascertaining threats and surrounding situation; identifying opportunities and designing strategies for action; and implementing actions and monitoring results. In 2007, TNC and a multidisciplinary graduate student team from the University of Michigan's School of Natural Resources and Environment initiated a CAP for the St. Marys River, the connecting channel between Lake Superior and Lake Huron, and its local watershed. The students not only gained experience in conservation planning, but also learned lessons that notably benefited the CAP process and were valuable for any successful collaborative effort—a dedicated core team improved product quality, accelerated the timeline, and provided necessary support for ongoing efforts; an academic approach in preparation for engagement in the planning process brought applicable scientific research to the forefront, enhanced workshop facilitation, and improved stakeholder participation; and early and continuous interactions with regional stakeholders improved cooperation and built a supportive network for collaboration.

Michigan, Ontario↗

USGS2020

Fisheries research and monitoring activities of the Lake Erie Biological Station, 2019

A comprehensive understanding of fish populations and their interactions is the cornerstone of modern fishery management and the basis for Fish Community Goals and Objectives for Lake Erie (Ryan et al. 2003). This report is responsive to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) obligations via Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Great Lakes Council of Lake Committees (CLC) to provide scientific information in support of fishery management. Goals for the USGS Great Lakes Deepwater Fish Assessment and Ecological Studies in 2019 were to monitor long-term changes in the fish community and population dynamics of key fishes of interest to management agencies. Specific to Lake Erie, expectations of this agreement were sustained investigations of native percids, forage (prey) fish populations, and Lake Trout. Our 2019 deepwater program operations began in April and concluded in December, and utilized trawl, gillnet, hydroacoustic, lower trophic sampling, and telemetry methods. This work resulted in 88 bottom trawls covering 65 ha of lake-bottom and catching 24,140 fish totaling 3,622 kg during three separate trawl surveys in the West and Central basins of Lake Erie. Overnight gillnet sets (n=44) for cold water species were performed at 42 unique locations in the West and East basins of Lake Erie. A total of 8.0 km of gillnet was deployed during these surveys, which caught 286 fish, 114 of which were native coldwater species: Lake Trout, Burbot, and Lake Whitefish. USGS hydroacoustic surveys in 2019 produced 240 km of transects, and lower trophic sampling provided data from zooplankton samples (n=21) and water quality profiles (n=21) to populate a database maintained by the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (OMNRF), Ohio Division of Natural Resources (ODNR), Michigan Division of Natural Resources (MDNR), Pennsylvania Fish and Boat Commission (PFBC), and New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC). USGS also assisted CLC member agencies with deployment and maintenance of the Great Lakes Acoustic Telemetry Observation System (GLATOS) throughout all three Lake Erie sub-basins, supporting multiple coordinated telemetry investigations. In 2019, Lake Trout investigations included annual gill net surveys and acoustic telemetry of spawning migration and habitat use in coordination with OMNRF, NYSDEC, and PFBC. Results from Lake Trout investigations were reported in the Coldwater Task Group annual report to the Great Lakes Fishery Commission (GLFC) and the CLC (Coldwater Task Group 2020). Likewise, interagency forage fish assessments conducted with hydroacoustics were summarized and reported in the Forage Task Group annual report (Forage Task Group 2020). This report presents biomass-based summaries of fish communities in western Lake Erie derived from USGS bottom trawl surveys conducted from 2013 to 2019 during June and September. The survey design provided temporal and spatial coverage that did not exist in the historic interagency trawl database, and thus complemented the August ODNR-OMNRF effort to reinforce stock assessments with more robust data. Analyses herein evaluated trends in: total biomass, abundance of dominant predator and forage species, non-native species composition, biodiversity and community structure. Data from this effort can be explored interactively online (https://lebs.shinyapps.io/western-basin/), and are accessible for download (https://doi.org/10.5066/P9LL6YOR, Keretz et al. 2020). Annual survey data are added to these sources as the data become available.

Lake Erie↗

USGS2019

State of lake ecosystem conference sub Indicator: Prey fish

Overall Assessment Status: Fair Trends 10-Year Trend: Unchanging Long-term Trend (1973-2017): Undetermined Rationale: Great Lakes prey fish community status remains ”Fair” based on diversity and percent native species, but individual lake status varied. Both diversity and percent native metrics were classified as “Good” in Lake Superior, but “Poor” in Lake Ontario (Table 1). Lakes Huron and Michigan were both “Fair” (Table 1). In Lake Erie, diversity remained “Fair,” but the proportion native species shifted to “Poor,” resulting in an overall conservative classification of “Poor” (Table 1). Four of the five lakes had the same status as the previous reporting period, but Lake Erie shifted from “Fair” to “Poor.” At the ten-year timescale, lake-specific trends were “Unchanging” in three lakes and “Deteriorating” in two lakes (Table 2). The trend for all lakes was therefore categorized as “Unchanging.” It is important to recognize six of the ten individual prey fish metrics did not trend up or down over the past ten years (Table 2). In Lake Erie, diversity and percent native were both “Deteriorating” and the Lake Michigan diversity was noted as “Deteriorating.” The only “Improving” trend was observed in the Lake Ontario where the percent of native species significantly increased from two to four percent of the total catch due to increased relative abundance of native Deepwater Sculpin (Weidel et al., 2017b). Long-term prey fish trends varied substantially with categorizations of “Improving,” “Deteriorating,” and “Undetermined,” and two lakes were “Unchanging” (Table 2). Because many of the long-term trends were in opposite directions, the overall classification for the long-term trend was “Undetermined.” In Lake Superior, both metrics have “Improving,” in Lake Michigan diversity is “Improving,” and in Lake Huron the percent native metric is “Improving” as non-native Alewife declined, and the relative importance of native Bloater increased. Alternatively, Lake Ontario long-term trends are “Deteriorating” as the proportion of Alewife in catches has increased. No long-term trends were detected in either of the Lake Erie metrics. Prey fish community changes are driven by changing ecosystem conditions including productivity changes, fluctuating predator composition and density, increasing water clarity, increasing water temperatures, and non-native species effects. While these driving factors are changing in similar directions across the region, because lakes are unique in their nutrient concentrations, morphometry, hydrology, and fish communities, the prey fish communities in each lake respond differently to changes in ecosystem drivers (Figure 1).

Report↗

USGS2021

Honey bee foraged pollen reveals temporal changes in pollen protein content and changes in forager choice for abundant versus high protein flowers

Protein derived from pollen is an essential component of healthy bee diets. Protein content in honey bee foraged-pollen varies temporally and spatially, but the drivers underlying this variation remain poorly characterized. We assessed the temporal and spatial variation in honey bee collected pollen in 12 Michigan apiaries over 3 summers (2015–2017). We simultaneously monitored forage in flowering habitats (uncultivated floristically-rich areas and conservation program land) near these apiaries throughout the growing season. We used these data, along with data from the literature on plant pollen protein content, to determine if honey bees collected a greater proportion of pollen from plant species growing in higher abundance or from plant species that have higher protein content. Protein content in honey bee collected pollen decreased from July to September every year, and there were among-year differences in pollen protein, highlighting the temporal variation in protein collected by these insects. Pollen protein was spatially consistent and broad-scale land use categories were not correlated with pollen protein content. Rather, our findings suggest flowering habitats found across land use categories can support honey bee foraging, which may confound broader land use effects. In early July and in early September, colonies collected a greater proportion of pollen from plants that grew in greater abundance in flowering habitats, but from late July through August, a greater proportion of pollen was collected from high-protein taxa, regardless of abundance. This suggests different factors may influence pollen forager decision-making throughout the season as colony needs and/or available forage communities change. Insights into the role of plant abundance and protein content on foraging could deepen our understanding of honey bee foraging behavior and help to inform habitat restoration programs for improved honey bee nutrition outcomes.

Michigan↗

USGS2024

The 3D Elevation Program—Supporting Michigan’s economy

High-quality elevation data are proving to be a resource of value in addressing many important economic issues in Michigan. The expanding statewide availability of current and accurate high-resolution elevation data can help support agriculture and precision farming, natural resource conservation, flood risk management, and geologic resource assessment and hazard mitigation. Water supply and quality assessment, coastal zone management, infrastructure and construction management, solar potential and other renewable energy programs, and identification of features of interest or concern such as archaeological and historical sites are other notable areas that are supported with accurate, high-resolution elevation data. Critical applications that meet the State’s management needs depend on light detection and ranging (lidar) data that provide a highly detailed three-dimensional (3D) model of the Earth’s surface and aboveground features.

Michigan↗

USGS2003

Genetic comparison of lake sturgeon populations: Differentiation based on allelic frequencies at seven microsatellite loci

The lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) has recently become a high priority for restoration management because of the near extinction of the species from many areas of North America. The identification of the level of population differentiation that naturally exists among lake sturgeon populations will be useful in the development of management plans to conserve and restore diversity, and in the choice of donor populations to use for re-introduction. Genetic variation among and within 210 lake sturgeon collected from seven locations (St. Lawrence River, Des Prairies River (tributary to the St. Lawrence River), Mattagami River (Hudson Bay drainage), Menominee River (Lake Michigan drainage), Wolf River (Lake Michigan drainage), Niagara River, and Lake Erie) was examined based on allelic variation at seven microsatellite loci (four disomic and three putative tetrasomic). High levels of variability were detected at these loci. Analyses revealed an average of 8.6 alleles per locus (range 5 to 12 alleles per locus) and heterozygosity values at the four disomic loci ranging from 0.46 to 0.66. Multivariate factor analysis of Nei's genetic distance values produced three distinct population groups that were organized by geography: 1) Mattagami (northern Quebec), 2) Menominee/ Wolf (Lake Michigan - Wisconsin), and 3) St. Lawrence/ Des Prairies/ Niagara/ Erie (lower Great Lakes). Differences based on G-tests summed over all loci occurred between all possible paired comparisons of the collections (P < 0.01). These analyses indicated that lake sturgeon populations are differentiated within the Great Lakes basin. Managers of this species will need to identify individual populations in their jurisdictions and provide separate consideration for their conservation and rehabilitation.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2009

Improving the design of amphibian surveys using soil data: A case study in two wilderness areas

Amphibian populations are known, or thought to be, declining worldwide. Although protected natural areas may act as reservoirs of biological integrity and serve as benchmarks for comparison with unprotected areas, they are not immune from population declines and extinctions and should be monitored. Unfortunately, identifying survey sites and performing long-term fieldwork within such (often remote) areas involves a special set of problems. We used the USDA Natural Resource Conservation Service Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) Database to identify, a priori, potential habitat for aquatic-breeding amphibians on North and South Manitou Islands, Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore, Michigan, and compared the results to those obtained using National Wetland Inventory (NWI) data. The SSURGO approach identified more target sites for surveys than the NWI approach, and it identified more small and ephemeral wetlands. Field surveys used a combination of daytime call surveys, night-time call surveys, and perimeter surveys. We found that sites that would not have been identified with NWI data often contained amphibians and, in one case, contained wetland-breeding species that would not have been found using NWI data. Our technique allows for easy a priori identification of numerous survey sites that might not be identified using other sources of spatial information. We recognize, however, that the most effective site identification and survey techniques will likely use a combination of methods in addition to those described here.

Natural Areas Journal↗

USGS2011

Bridging the conservation design and delivery gap for wetland bird habitat maintenance and restoration in the Midwestern United States

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's adoption of Strategic Habitat Conservation is intended to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of conservation delivery by targeting effort in areas where biological benefits are greatest. Conservation funding has not often been allocated in accordance with explicit biological endpoints, and the gap between conservation design (the identification of conservation priority areas) and delivery needs to be bridged to better meet conservation goals for multiple species and landscapes. We introduce a regional prioritization scheme for North American Wetlands Conservation Act funding which explicitly addresses Midwest regional goals for wetland-dependent birds. We developed decision-support maps to guide conservation of breeding and non-breeding wetland bird habitat. This exercise suggested ~55% of the Midwest consists of potential wetland bird habitat, and areas suited for maintenance (protection) were distinguished from those most suited to restoration. Areas with greater maintenance focus were identified for central Minnesota, southeastern Wisconsin, the Upper Mississippi and Illinois rivers, and the shore of western Lake Erie and Saginaw Bay. The shores of Lakes Michigan and Superior accommodated fewer waterbird species overall, but were also important for wetland bird habitat maintenance. Abundant areas suited for wetland restoration occurred in agricultural regions of central Illinois, western Iowa, and northern Indiana and Ohio. Use of this prioritization scheme can increase effectiveness, efficiency, transparency, and credibility to land and water conservation efforts for wetland birds in the Midwestern United States.

Midwest↗