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Council Monitoring and Assessment Program (CMAP): User guide for the Gulf Coast Monitoring and Assessment Portal

The Resources and Ecosystems Sustainability, Tourist Opportunities, and Revived Economies of the Gulf Coast States Act (RESTORE Act Final Rule at 31 C.F.R. Part 34) was signed into law on July 6, 2012. The RESTORE Act calls for a regional approach to restoring the long-term health of the valuable natural ecosystem and economy of the Gulf Coast region. The RESTORE Act dedicates 80 percent of civil and administrative penalties paid under the Clean Water Act, after the date of enactment, by the responsible parties in connection with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill to the Gulf Coast Restoration Trust Fund (Trust Fund) for ecosystem restoration, economic recovery, and tourism promotion in the Gulf Coast region. In addition to creating the Trust Fund, the RESTORE Act established the Gulf Coast Ecosystem Restoration Council (RESTORE Council or Council). The Council includes the Governors of the states of Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas, the Secretaries of the U.S. Departments of Agriculture, the Army, Commerce, Homeland Security, and the Interior, and the Administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The Council plays a key role in developing strategies and implementing projects that help ensure the Gulf of Mexico’s natural resources are sustainable and available for future generations. The Council Monitoring and Assessment Program (CMAP) was approved as a Gulf-wide investment by the Council in the 2015 Initial Funded Priorities List and is administered jointly by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Funded activities include the organization of basic, foundational components for a Gulf-wide monitoring network to measure the efficacy of investments in Gulf restoration by the Council. The program, in coordination with the Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA) and through collaboration with the Gulf States, federal and local partners, academia, non-governmental organizations, and business and industry, has leveraged existing resources, capacities, and expertise and built on existing monitoring programs and their data.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,

Louisiana coastal wetlands: a resource at risk

Approximately half the Nation's original wetland habitats have been lost over the past 200 years. In part, this has been a result of natural evolutionary processes, but human activities, such as dredging wetlands for canals or draining and filling for agriculture, grazing, or development, share a large part of the responsibility for marsh habitat alteration and destruction. Louisiana's wetlands today represent about 40 percent of the wetlands of the continental United States, but about 80 percent of the losses. The State's wetlands extend as much as 130 kilometers inland and along the coast for about 300 kilometers. Not all the wetlands are receding; in fact some wetlands are stable, and others are growing. But, at the present net rate of wetlands loss, Louisiana will have lost this crucial habitat in about 200 years. Considerable effort has been expended, and will continue to be expended, on understanding the processes that control wetlands evolution.

Louisiana

Shorebird habitat availability assessment of agricultural fields using a digital aerial video system

Field and wetland conditions in the rice prairies of Louisiana and Texas are highly dynamic habitats. Rice prairies are important habitat for many species of migratory birds, including shorebirds, wading birds, and waterfowl. Ground sampling a variety of fields to assess habitat availability is very labor intensive, and accessibility to private lands makes statistical habitat sampling almost impossible. Aerial video is a tool we can use for assessing availability of these highly ephemeral habitats because of the short-duration repeatability of the surveys. The strong statistical basis of line transect theory allows quantitative estimation of habitat availability. We used ground surveys of field conditions and shorebird ground counts to correlate spectral signatures with shorebird habitat availability. This video system can also be used to identify and map distribution of invasive plant species known to affect suitability of stopover habitat for shorebirds and landbirds.

Louisiana

The 3D Elevation Program: summary for Louisiana

Elevation data are essential to a broad range of applications, including forest resources management, wildlife and habitat management, national security, recreation, and many others. For the State of Louisiana, elevation data are critical for flood risk management, natural resources conservation, agriculture and precision farming, infrastructure and construction management, water supply and quality, and other business uses. Today, high-density light detection and ranging (lidar) data are the primary sources for deriving elevation models and other datasets. Federal, State, Tribal, and local agencies work in partnership to (1) replace data that are older and of lower quality and (2) provide coverage where publicly accessible data do not exist. A joint goal of State and Federal partners is to acquire consistent, statewide coverage to support existing and emerging applications enabled by lidar data. The National Enhanced Elevation Assessment evaluated multiple elevation data acquisition options to determine the optimal data quality and data replacement cycle relative to cost to meet the identified requirements of the user community. The evaluation demonstrated that lidar acquisition at quality level 2 for the conterminous United States and quality level 5 ifsar data for Alaska with a 6- to 10-year acquisition cycle provided the highest benefit/cost ratios. The 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) initiative selected an 8-year acquisition cycle for the respective quality levels. 3DEP, managed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Office of Management and Budget Circular A–16 lead agency for terrestrial elevation data, responds to the growing need for high-quality topographic data and a wide range of other 3D representations of the Nation’s natural and constructed features.

Louisiana

Groundwater-flow assessment of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer of northeastern Arkansas

The Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer is a water-bearing assemblage of gravels and sands that underlies about 32,000 square miles of Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee. Pumping of groundwater from the alluvial aquifer for agriculture started in the early 1900s in the Grand Prairie area for the irrigation of rice and soybeans. From 1965 to 2005, water use in the alluvial aquifer increased 655 percent. In 2005, 6,242 million gallons per day of water were pumped from the aquifer, primarily for irrigation and fish farming. Water-level declines in the alluvial aquifer were documented as early as 1927. Long-term water-level measurements in the alluvial aquifer show an average annual decline of 1 foot per year in some areas. In this report, the utility of the updated 2009 MODFLOW groundwater-flow model of the alluvial aquifer in northeastern Arkansas was extended by performing groundwater-flow assessments of the alluvial aquifer at specific areas of interest using a variety of methods. One such area is along the western side of Crowleys Ridge, which includes western parts of Clay, Greene, Craighead, Poinsett, Cross, St. Francis, and Lee Counties. This area was designated as the Cache Critical Groundwater Area by the Arkansas Natural Resources Commission in 2009 for the alluvial and Sparta/Memphis aquifers, because of the rate of change in groundwater levels and groundwater levels have dropped below half the original saturated thickness of the alluvial aquifer.

Scientific Investigations Report

The role of the Wetland Reserve Program in conservation efforts in the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley

The Mississippi River Alluvial Valley includes the floodplain of the Mississippi River from Cairo, Illinois, USA, to the Gulf of Mexico. Originally this region supported about 10 million ha of bottomland hardwood forests, but only about 2.8 million ha remain today. Furthermore, most of the remaining bottomland forest is highly fragmented with altered hydrologic processes. During the 1990s landscape-scale conservation planning efforts were initiated for migratory birds and the threatened Louisiana black bear ( Ursus americanus luteolus ). These plans call for large-scale reforestation and restoration efforts in the region, particularly on private lands. In 1990 the Food, Agriculture, Conservation and Trade Act authorized the Wetlands Reserve Program (WRP). The WRP is a voluntary program administered by the United States Department of Agriculture that provides eligible landowners with financial incentives to restore wetlands and retire marginal farmlands from agricultural production. As of 30 September 2005, over 275,700 ha have been enrolled in the program in the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley, with the greatest concentration in Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi, USA. Hydrologic restoration is common on most sites, with open-water wetlands, such as moist-soil units and sloughs, constituting up to 30% of a given tract. Over 33,200 ha of open-water wetlands have been created, potentially providing over 115,000,000 duck-use days. Twenty-three of 87 forest-bird conservation areas have met or exceed core habitat goals for migratory songbirds and another 24 have met minimum area requirements. The WRP played an integral role in the fulfillment of these goals. Although some landscape goals have been attained, the young age of the program and forest stands, and the lack of monitoring, has limited evaluations of the program's impact on wildlife populations.

Mississippi River Alluvial Valley

Evaluating treatment methods to control the egg masses of the crop pest Pomacea maculata

Pomacea maculata is an invasive aquatic apple snail species that poses serious ecological, agricultural, and public health threats across the southeastern United States. Its spread, particularly in Louisiana, has heavily impacted rice and crayfish farming, an industry producing over 90% of U.S. crayfish and valued at more than $250 million annually. The snail damages seedling rice, clogs crayfish traps, reduces yields, and increases labor for farmers. Moreover, it is a known host of rat lungworm ( Angiostrongylus cantonensis ), a parasite harmful to humans, making its presence in food production environments a public health concern. Controlling P. maculata is challenging due to its life cycle and reproductive strategies. The species lays large clutches of eggs above the waterline, where traditional aquatic molluscicides are ineffective. This study aimed to assess low-cost, practical methods for reducing egg hatch rates, specifically water submersion and vegetable oil application, on newly laid (day 1) and older (day 7) egg clutches. Laboratory trials on 125 egg clutches revealed that water submersion significantly reduced hatch rates and the development of dormant hatchlings, regardless of clutch age. Oil treatment only reduced hatch rates for day 1 clutches and had no effect on dormant hatchlings. These results suggest that water treatment is more broadly effective and feasible for farmers to apply without needing to determine egg age when applied on a routine, weekly basis. While oil showed limited use, its time-sensitive application limits practicality in the field. Water-based approaches offer a scalable solution for reducing P. maculata populations, but do not completely eliminate the potential for hatching and spreading. Without comprehensive control strategies targeting all life stages, the apple snail’s spread and associated impacts are expected to worsen, underscoring the urgency of continued management innovation.

Florida

Ground Water Atlas of the United States: Segment 5, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi

The States of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, which are located adjacent to each other and north of the Gulf of Mexico, compose Segment 5 of this Atlas. The three-State area encompasses an area of nearly 149,000 square miles. These States are drained by numerous rivers and streams, such as the Atchafalaya, the Teche, the Vermilion, the Calcasieu, the Mermentau, the Sabine, the Tombigbee, the Pascagoula, the Wolf, and the Pearl Rivers, that drain directly to the Gulf of Mexico. The Yazoo, the Big Black, the Arkansas, the St. Francis, the Red, and the White Rivers are tributaries of the Mississippi River, which is the largest of the rivers that drain the three States. Although surface water is the largest source of freshwater to public supply, domestic and commercial, industrial, mining, thermoelectric power and agricultural users, ground water also is important and accounts for 38 percent of total water use in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Precipitation is the ultimate source of water that recharges the ma-jor aquifers in Segment 5. Average annual rainfall (1951-80) amounts range from about 40 to about 68 inches (fig. 1). Temporal (seasonal) and spatial variations in precipitation are evident in the three-State area. Average annual rainfall is greatest (60 inches per year or more) in southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi and diminishes in Arkansas and in northwestern Louisiana. Precipitation is greatest during January and May in Arkansas. May to September represent the wettest months in southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. March and April are the wettest months in northern Mississippi. Average annual (1951-80) runoff ranges from less than 12 inches in western Louisiana and northwestern Arkansas to more than 20 inches in southern and northern Mississippi and in central and western Arkansas (fig. 2). Comparison of precipitation and runoff maps shows that less than one-half of the annual precipitation leaves the area as stream runoff. Much of the water that does not exit Segment 5 as runoff is returned to the atmosphere by evapotranspiration, which is the combination of transpiration by vegetation and evaporation from marshes, swamps, lakes and streams. A small amount of water recharges aquifers that are either exposed or buried to shallow depths, and an even smaller amount percolates downward and enters the deep flow system.

Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi

Comprehensive framework for ecological assessment of the Migratory Bird Habitat Initiative following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

Following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in April 2010, the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) established and funded the Migratory Bird Habitat Initiative (MBHI), with the goal of improving and increasing wetland habitats on private lands to benefit wintering and migrating waterbirds displaced from oil-impacted coastal wetlands. The NRCS and conservation partners provided financial and technical assistance to landowners and managers of sites enrolled in various conservation easement programs, and incorporated approximately 190,000 ha of wetlands and agricultural lands in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV) and Gulf Coast regions in the MBHI. In fall 2010, the NRCS worked with scientists and graduate students from three universities and various conservation agencies to design and implement landscape-scale evaluations of (1) the use of MBHI-managed wetlands and comparable non-MBHI wetlands by Charadriiformes (shorebirds), Anseriformes (waterfowl), and other waterbirds; and (2) the relative effectiveness of different MBHI practices for providing habitat and food resources for migrating, resident, and wintering waterbirds. In this paper, we describe the scientific framework designed to evaluate the MBHI in improving waterbird habitats on private lands in the MAV, the Gulf Coast Prairies in Louisiana and Texas, and Gulf coastal wetlands of Mississippi and Alabama. The results of our evaluation will enhance our understanding of the influence of MBHI, other Farm Bill Conservation Initiative managed lands (e.g., Wetland Reserve Program), and selected agricultural working lands (e.g., Oryza sativa L. [Rice] fields in southern Louisiana and Texas) on wintering and migrating waterbirds. A proactive approach that uses science to evaluate governmental conservation programs is relevant and can inform development of meaningful public policy that likely will be needed for effective delivery of future conservation programs and to justify financial incentives paid to landowners to apply best management practices.

Southeastern Naturalist

The role of soil fertility in restoring Louisiana's coastal prairie

Studies have shown that soil nutrients, especially nitrogen (N), play an important role in the reestablishment of native prairie plant species. Soil N favors early succession species while long-lived native perennials compete favorably in N poor soils and numerous restoration studies have employed carbon additions in the form of sawdust and/or sucrose to immobilize soil nitrogen. However, this technique poses financial and logistical challenges when reconstructing coastal prairie in former agricultural fields. In this study the germination and survival of native prairie species were studied along a nutrient gradient established in an old rice field in Gueydan, Louisiana. Fifty plots, planted with seeds of 22 native prairie species, received one of five treatments: a low or high rate of nitrogen, no addition, and a low or high rate of carbon (sawdust and sucrose). Vegetation coverage by species was sampled every September from 2004 - 2007. Precipitation was well below normal from 2003 to the middle of 2006 except for April - June 2004. Above ground productivity showed a strong response to nitrogen levels as measured by the percentage of available sunlight reaching the ground. Species richness increased with increasing fertility, but despite the increase in biomass as fertility increased there was no statistical difference in species conservatism values with conservative species germinating and surviving in all treatments. These results suggest that factors other than N may influence the outcome of succession in coastal prairie. It is hypothesized that drought adapted prairie perennials are superior competitors in heavy clay prairie soils when receiving low levels of precipitation.

Louisiana

Water resources of Catahoula Parish, Louisiana

Introduction Information concerning the availability, use, and quality of water in Catahoula Parish, Louisiana, is critical for proper water-supply management. The purpose of this fact sheet is to present information that can be used by water managers, parish residents, and others for stewardship of this vital resource. Information on the availability, past and current use, use trends, and water quality from groundwater and surface-water sources in the parish is presented. Previously published reports and data stored in the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water Information System are the primary sources of the information presented here. In 2010, 30.01 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) of water were withdrawn in Catahoula Parish, Louisiana, including about 22.63 Mgal/d from groundwater sources and 7.38 Mgal/d from surface-water sources. Withdrawals for agricultural use, composed of aquaculture, general irrigation, livestock, and rice irrigation, accounted for about 93 percent (28.05 Mgal/d) of the total water withdrawn. Other categories of use included public supply and rural domestic. Water-use data collected at 5-year intervals from 1960 to 2010 indicated that water withdrawals peaked in 2000 at 30.99 Mgal/d.

Louisiana

Incorporating uncertainty into high-resolution groundwater supply models

Groundwater modeling is a useful tool for evaluating whether an acquifer system is capable of supporting groundwater withdrawals over long periods of time and what effect, if any, such activity will have on the regional flow dynamics as well as on specific public water, agricultural and industrial supplies. An overview is given of an ongoing groundwater modeling study of the Chicot Aquifer in southwestern Louisiana where a low-resolution groundwater model is being used to study the regional flow in the Chicot acquifer and to provide boundary conditions for higher-resolution inset models created using telescopic mesh refinement (TMR).

Conference Paper

Concentrations and loads of nitrogen and phosphorus in the Yazoo River, northwestern Mississippi, 1996-97

Increased nutrient loading to the Gulf of Mexico from off-continent flux has been identified as contributing to the increase in the areal extent of the low dissolved-oxygen zone that develops annually off the coast of Louisiana and Texas. The proximity of the Yazoo River Basin in northwestern Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico, and the intensive agriculture in the basin have lead to speculation that the Yazoo River Basin contributes a disproportionate amount of nitrogen and phosphorus to the Mississippi River and ultimately the Gulf of Mexico. Water samples from the Yazoo River were collected during 1996 and 1997 and were analyzed for total nitrogen, nitrate as nitrogen, total phosphorus, and orthophosphorus as part of the U.S. Geological Survey?s National Water-Quality Assessment Program. These data were used to compute annual loads of nitrogen and phosphorus discharged from the Yazoo River for 1996 and 1997. Annual loads of nitrogen and phosphorus were calculated by two methods. The first used multivariate regression and the second multiplied the mean annual concentration by the total annual flow. Load estimates based on the product of the mean annual concentration and the total annual flow were within the 95 percent confidence interval for the load calculated by multivariate regression in all cases. The Yazoo River loads, compared to long-term annual loads in the Mississippi River, indicated that the Yazoo River was contributing 2.3 percent or less of the total nitrogen load, 5.7 percent or less of the total phosphorus load, and 1 percent or less of the nitrate load in 1996 and 1997. The total nitrogen load from the Yazoo River Basin into the Mississippi River and ultimately the Gulf of Mexico was proportional to its discharge, the nitrate load was less than expected, whereas the total phosphorus load was slightly higher than expected based on discharge.

Mississippi

Streamflow and nutrient data for the Yazoo River below Steele Bayou near Long Lake, Mississippi, 1996-2000

Increased nutrient loading to the Gulf of Mexico from off-continent flux has been identified as contributing to the increase in the areal extent of the low dissolved-oxygen zone that develops annually off the Louisiana and Texas coast. The proximity of the Yazoo River Basin in northwestern Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico, and the intensive agricultural activities in the basin have led to speculation that the Yazoo River Basin contributes a disproportionate amount of nitrogen and phosphorus to the Mississippi River and ultimately to the Gulf of Mexico. An empirical measurement of the flux of nitrogen and phosphorus from the Yazoo Basin has not been possible due to the hydrology of the lower Yazoo River Basin. Streamflow for the Yazoo River below Steele Bayou is affected by backwater from the Mississippi River. Flow at the gage is non-uniform and varying, with bi-directional and reverse flows possible. Streamflow was computed by using remote sensing and acoustic and conventional discharge and velocity measurement techniques. Streamflow from the Yazoo River for the 1996-2000 period accounted for 2.8 percent of the flow of the Mississippi River for the same period. Water samples from the Yazoo River were collected from February 1996 through December 2000 and were analyzed for total nitrogen, nitrate, total phosphorus, and orthophosphorus as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program. These data were used to compute annual loads of nitrogen and phosphorus discharged from the Yazoo River for the period 1996-2000. Annual loads of nitrogen and phosphorus were calculated by two methods. The first method used multivariate regression and the second method multiplied the mean annual concentration by the total annual flow. Load estimates based on the product of the mean annual concentration and the total annual flow were within the 95 percent confidence interval for the load calculated by multivariate regression in 10 of 20 cases. The Yazoo River loads, compared to average annual loads in the Mississippi River, indicated that the Yazoo River was contributing 1.4 percent of the total nitrogen load, 0.7 percent of the nitrate load, 3.4 percent of the total phosphorus load, and 1.6 percent of the orthophosphorus load during 1996 - 2000. The total nitrogen, nitrate, and orthophosphorus loads in the Yazoo River Basin were less than expected, whereas the total phosphorus load was slightly higher than expected based on discharge.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Planning report for the Gulf Coast Regional Aquifer-System Analysis in the Gulf of Mexico coastal plain, United States

Large quantities of water for municipal, industrial and agriculture use are supplied from the aquifers in Tertiary and younger sediments over an area of about 225,000 square miles in the Coastal Plain of Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Tennessee, and Texas. Three regional aquifer systems, the Mississippi Embayment aquifer system, the Coastal Lowlands aquifer system, and the Texas Coastal Uplands aquifer system have been developed to varying degrees throughout the area. A variety of problems has resulted from development such as movement of the saline-freshwater interface into parts of aquifers that were previously fresh, lowering of the potentiometric surface with resulting increases in pumping lift, and land-surface subsidence due to the compaction of clays within the aquifer. Increased demand for ground water is anticipated to meet the needs of urban growth, expanded energy development, and growth of irrigated agriculture. The U. S. Geological Survey initiated an eightyear study in 1981 to define the geohydrologic framework, describe the chemistry of the ground water, and to analyze the regional ground-water flow patterns. The objectives, plan, and organization of the study are described in this report and the major tasks to be undertaken are outlined.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Use of habitats by female northern pintails wintering in southwestern Louisiana

The breeding population of norther pintails ( Anas acuta ) in 1996 was 39% below the long-term average. Because winter habitat quality may influence subsequent breeding population size in pintails, identification of habitats used by wintering pintails and factors influencing use of habitats may be important for managing for population increase. We examined variation in diel use of habitats by radiotagged female pintails ( n = 272) in southwestern Louisiana in relation to age (imm and ad), winter (1991-92 and 1992-93), and time period within winters (pre-hunting season, first hunting season, time between split hunting seasons, second hunting season, and post-hunting season). Diurnal use of refuges was significantly greater during hunting seasons than during immediately preceding or succeeding nonhunting seasons. Consequently, we reject Tamissier's (1976) hypothesis that high diurnal use of refuges by pintails in southwestern Louisiana occurs later in winters. Time-period differences in diurnal and nocturnal use of habitats (large permanent pools, marsh, rice, fallow [idle], and other agriculture [primarily soybeans]) were not consistent between winters. Diel use of refuges or habitats did not differ in relation to female age. Females used fallow and ice agriculture extensively, particularly at night, and these habitats collectively accounted for 68-93% of nocturnal use. Differential use of habitats between winters was related to annual differences in relative abundance of rice and fallow agriculture. Proximity of refuges to agricultural areas should be an important management consideration for wintering pintails and other waterfowl.

Louisiana

Groundwater availability of the Mississippi embayment

Groundwater is an important resource for agricultural and municipal uses in the Mississippi embayment. Arkansas ranks first in the Nation for rice and third for cotton production, with both crops dependent on groundwater as a major source of irrigation requirements. Multiple municipalities rely on the groundwater resources to provide water for industrial and public use, which includes the city of Memphis, Tennessee. The demand for the groundwater resource has resulted in groundwater availability issues in the Mississippi embayment including: (1) declining groundwater levels of 50 feet or more in the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer in parts of eastern Arkansas from agricultural pumping, (2) declining groundwater levels of over 360 feet over the last 90 years in the confined middle Claiborne aquifer in southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana from municipal pumping, and (3) litigation between the State of Mississippi and a Memphis water utility over water rights in the middle Claiborne aquifer. To provide information to stakeholders addressing the groundwater-availability issues, the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Resources Program supported a detailed assessment of groundwater availability through the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study (MERAS). This assessment included (1) an evaluation of how these resources have changed over time through the use of groundwater budgets, (2) development of a numerical modeling tool to assess system responses to stresses from future human uses and climate trends, and (3) application of statistical tools to evaluate the importance of individual observations within a groundwater-monitoring network. An estimated 12 million acre-feet per year (11 billion gallons per day) of groundwater was pumped in 2005 from aquifers in the Mississippi embayment. Irrigation constitutes the largest groundwater use, accounting for approximately 10 million acre-feet per year (9 billion gallons per day) in 2000 from the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri, and to a lesser extent in Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Predevelopment groundwater flow is represented in the MERAS model as a steady-state stress period, assumed to be prior to 1870. The simulated groundwater-flow budget indicates the largest predevelopment inflow to the system is net recharge to the alluvial aquifer. This inflow is balanced by outflow to gaining streams. Overall, water enters as net recharge to the alluvial aquifer or through outcrop areas of the various hydrogeologic units. Away from the outcrop areas, groundwater flow in the deeper formations is primarily upward into overlying units, ultimately discharging to streams through the alluvial aquifer. Total net recharge and discharge (sum of inflows or outflows) for the model ranged from about 0.66 million acre-feet per year during predevelopment to 20.16 million acre-feet per year by the end of the simulation (final simulated irrigation period in summer of 2006). This change in the model budget reflects increases in withdrawals compared to predevelopment conditions. Cumulative storage within aquifers simulated in the MERAS model indicates overall depletion of 140 million acre-feet (equivalent to 2.8 feet of water covering the entire study area). Postdevelopment inflow to the system is still through net recharge to the alluvial aquifer and the outcrop areas of the several hydrogeologic units, however, the flow between each unit is no longer upward to the alluvial aquifer. Groundwater flow during the summer of 2006 was primarily downward to offset demand from pumping. Early in the model simulation (1870-1920s), the primary components of the water budget were simulated as outflow from stream leakage and inflow from net recharge. As pumpage increased through time, water that would otherwise flow to streams reversed, and net stream leakage became an inflow to the system. The largest reversals began in the mid-1980s, but indications of the reversal began in the early 1960s with a trend in loss of streamflow leakage coupled with the first consistent inflow from storage. While groundwater pumped out of the alluvial aquifer was derived primarily from storage, pumpage out of the middle Claiborne aquifer was derived primarily from other aquifers (up to 15 percent from the alluvial aquifer), followed by flow from storage and net recharge. The potential consequences of climate change have been identified as a major concern facing the sustainability of the Nation's groundwater resources. To address this concern, two climate simulations were developed through the use of the MERAS model by extending the simulation period by 30 years to the year 2038 using extrapolated precipitation based on frequency analysis of historic climate cycles. There is little difference between the dry and wet scenarios in terms of percent water-level change. Both scenarios resulted in 14.6 to 13.9 percent of the area containing more than 100 feet of decline, 14.5 to 13.8 percent containing between 75 and 100 feet of decline, and 15.8 to 15.7 percent containing 51 to 75 feet of decline in the alluvial aquifer. The middle Claiborne aquifer water-level changes also were similar between the two scenarios. These scenarios indicate that even with a 25-percent increase in precipitation from that of the dry scenario, there is little difference in the resultant water levels. This is in large part because of the magnitude of differences between changes in net recharge and changes in pumping. When compared to the volume of water pumped out of the system, the effect of this change in net recharge is negligible. The groundwater-level monitoring network used to construct the 2007 middle Claiborne aquifer potentiometric surface was used as an example case to demonstrate statistical technique and to evaluate the importance of individual groundwater-level observations. To calculate the importance of each water-level observation to a prediction, predictions were specified as water-level altitudes near the end of the dry scenario simulation. These predictions were located near the center of cones of depression. Many of the observations that have a high importance are in close proximity to stressed areas of the aquifer.

Mississippi

Differential habitat use of wintering Whooping Cranes throughout the range of the Eastern Migratory Population

In 2001, a reintroduced population of whooping cranes (Grus americana), the Eastern Migratory Population (EMP), was established in the eastern United States. There has been no assessment of habitat use of the EMP across the current winter distribution. During 2 winters, we used radio-telemetry to track groups of cranes each for 1 day. We grouped sites into 3 regions, based on natural clustering: north (Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky), central (Tennessee, Alabama), and south (Georgia, Florida, Louisiana). Home ranges decreased in size from north to south (4.9 ± 2.8, 3.1 ± 1.0, and 2.3 ± 0.5 km 2 , respectively). In the north and central regions, cranes often used agricultural areas, including those with hydric soil that were potentially inundated during winter (e.g., flooded fields). Home ranges in the south had the greatest proportion of wetlands (south: 37%, central: 7%, north: 1%). Wintering sites in the south potentially had higher habitat quality than other regions (small home ranges with many wetlands); however, many individuals wintered further north, indicating there was a potential tradeoff with migration distance or cranes adapted to new habitats. More research on the effects of winter habitat use on the population growth of the EMP may clarify the importance of high-quality habitat.

Southeastern United States