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Results for “Linking Species and Ecosystems”

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At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Food web controls on mercury fluxes and fate in the Colorado River, Grand Canyon

Mercury (Hg) biomagnification in aquatic food webs is a global concern; yet, the ways species traits and interactions mediate these fluxes remain poorly understood. Few pathways dominated Hg flux in the Colorado River despite large spatial differences in food web complexity, and fluxes were mediated by one functional trait, predation resistance. New Zealand mudsnails are predator resistant and a trophic dead end for Hg in food webs we studied. Fishes preferred blackflies, which accounted for 56 to 80% of Hg flux to fishes, even where blackflies were rare. Food web properties, i.e., match/mismatch between insect production and fish consumption, governed amounts of Hg retained in the river versus exported to land. An experimental flood redistributed Hg fluxes in the simplified tailwater food web, but not in complex downstream food webs. Recognizing that species traits, species interactions, and disturbance mediate contaminant exposure can improve risk management of linked aquatic-terrestrial ecosystems.

Arizona, Nevada↗
USGS2025

A case for assemblage-level conservation to address the biodiversity crisis

Traditional conservation efforts have centred on safeguarding individual species, but these strategies have limitations in a world where entire ecosystems are rapidly changing. Ecosystem conservation can maintain critical ecological functions, but often lacks the detail necessary for the effective conservation of threatened or endangered species. The conservation of such species is mandated by policies and remains a dominant focus of natural resource management. In this Perspective, we propose that assemblage-level conservation targeting groups of taxonomically related or functionally similar species can bridge the gap between species and ecosystems and help to address global biodiversity loss. This approach has previously been limited by data and methodological constraints, but the ongoing growth of biodiversity data, advances in ecological modelling and breakthroughs in computational power have now made effective assemblage-level conservation feasible. Community models provide insights at both the species level and the assemblage level while appropriately accounting for species variability in detection during sampling and uncertainty in biological inferences. Assemblage-level conservation can link both species-specific needs and broader ecological dynamics, ultimately enabling effective strategies for conserving threatened species, ecological communities and ecosystem functions.

Nature Reviews Biodiversity↗
USGS2015

An updated conceptual model of Delta Smelt biology: Our evolving understanding of an estuarine fish

The main purpose of this report is to provide an up-to-date assessment and conceptual model of factors affecting Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) throughout its primarily annual life cycle and to demonstrate how this conceptual model can be used for scientific and management purposes. The Delta Smelt is a small estuarine fish that only occurs in the San Francisco Estuary. Once abundant, it is now rare and has been protected under the federal and California Endangered Species Acts since 1993. The Delta Smelt listing was related to a step decline in the early 1980s; however, population abundance decreased even further with the onset of the “pelagic organism decline” (POD) around 2002. A substantial, albeit short-lived, increase in abundance of all life stages in 2011 showed that the Delta Smelt population can still rebound when conditions are favorable for spawning, growth, and survival. In this report, we update previous conceptual models for Delta Smelt to reflect new data and information since the release of the last synthesis report about the POD by the Interagency Ecological Program for the San Francisco Estuary (IEP) in 2010. Specific objectives include: 1. Provide decision makers with a practical tool for evaluating difficult trade-offs associated with management and policy decisions. 2. Provide scientists with a framework from which they can formulate and evaluate hypotheses using qualitative or quantitative models. 3. Provide the general public with a new way of learning about Delta Smelt and their habitat. Our updated conceptual model describes the habitat conditions and ecosystem drivers affecting each Delta Smelt life stage, across seasons and how the seasonal effects contribute to the annual success of the species. The conceptual model consists of two nested and linked levels of increasing specificity. The general life cycle conceptual model for four Delta Smelt life stages (adults, eggs and larvae, juveniles, and subadults) includes stationary ecosystem components and dynamic environmental drivers, habitat attributes, and Delta Smelt responses. The more detailed life stage transition conceptual models for each of the four Delta Smelt life stages describe relationships between environmental drivers, key habitat attributes, and the responses of Delta Smelt to habitat attributes as they transition from one life stage to the next. Our analyses and conceptual model show that good larval recruitment is essential for setting the stage for a strong year class; however, increased growth and survival through subsequent life stages are also needed to achieve and sustain higher population abundance. We used our conceptual model to generate 16 hypotheses about the factors that may have contributed to the 2011 increase in Delta Smelt relative abundance. We then evaluated these hypotheses by comparing habitat conditions and Delta Smelt responses in the wet year 2011 to those in the prior wet year 2006 and in the drier years 2005 and 2010. Larval recruitment was similarly high in both wet years and lower in the drier antecedent years, but juvenile and adult abundance increased only in 2011. In 2005 and 2006, the population was limited by very poor survival from the larval to the juvenile life stage. We found that in 2011, Delta Smelt may have benefitted from a combination of favorable habitat conditions throughout the year, including: 1. Adults and larvae benefitted from prolonged cool spring water temperatures, high 2011 winter and spring outflows which reduced entrainment risk and possibly improved other habitat conditions, and possibly enhanced food availability in late spring. 2. Juveniles benefitted from cool water temperatures in late spring and early summer as well as from improved food availability and low levels of harmful Microcystis. 3. Subadults also benefitted from improved food availability and from favorable habitat conditions in the large, low salinity zone (salinity 1-6) located more toward Suisun Bay,

California↗
USGS2020

Integrating ecosystem resilience and resistance into decision support tools for multi-scale population management of a sagebrush indicator species

Imperiled sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems of western North America are experiencing unprecedented conservation planning efforts. Advances in decision-support tools operationalize concepts of ecosystem resilience by quantitatively linking spatially explicit variation in soil and plant processes to outcomes of biotic and abiotic disturbances. However, failure to consider higher trophic-level fauna of conservation concern in these tools can hinder efforts to operationalize resilience owing to spatiotemporal lags between slower reorganization of plant and soil processes following disturbance, and faster behavioral and demographic responses of fauna to disturbance. Here, we provide multi-scale examples of decision-support tools for management and restoration actions that evaluate general resilience mapped to variation in soil moisture and temperature regimes through new lenses of habitat selection and population performance responses for an at-risk obligate species to sagebrush ecosystems, the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). We then briefly describe general pathways going forward for more explicit integration of sage-grouse fitness with factors influencing variation in sagebrush resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasive species (e.g., annual grasses). The intended product of these efforts is a more targeted operational definition of resilience for managers by using quantifiable metrics that help limit chances of spatiotemporal mismatches among restoration responses owing to differences in engineering resilience between sagebrush ecosystem processes and sage-grouse population dynamics. Moreover, spatial resilience can be promoted though explicit consideration of sage-grouse and sagebrush predicted responses to active and passive management treatments across space and time. We describe tools that include multi-scale geospatial overlays and simulation analyses of post-disturbance land cover recovery aimed at prioritizing primary threats to sagebrush ecosystems in the Great Basin in the western portion of sage-grouse range (i.e., grass-fire cycles and conifer expansion), but underlying concepts have broader application to a range of ecosystems.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2003

Use of sulfur and nitrogen stable isotopes to determine the importance of whitebark pine nuts to Yellowstone grizzly bears

Whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ) is a masting species that produces relatively large, fat- and protein-rich nuts that are consumed by grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos horribilis ). Trees produce abundant nut crops in some years and poor crops in other years. Grizzly bear survival in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem is strongly linked to variation in pine-nut availability. Because whitebark pine trees are infected with blister rust ( Cronartium ribicola ), an exotic fungus that has killed the species throughout much of its range in the northern Rocky Mountains, we used stable isotopes to quantify the importance of this food resource to Yellowstone grizzly bears while healthy populations of the trees still exist. Whitebark pine nuts have a sulfur-isotope signature (9.2 ± 1.3‰ (mean ± 1 SD)) that is distinctly different from those of all other grizzly bear foods (ranging from 1.9 ± 1.7‰ for all other plants to 3.1 ± 2.6‰ for ungulates). Feeding trials with captive grizzly bears were used to develop relationships between dietary sulfur-, carbon-, and nitrogen-isotope signatures and those of bear plasma. The sulfur and nitrogen relationships were used to estimate the importance of pine nuts to free-ranging grizzly bears from blood and hair samples collected between 1994 and 2001. During years of poor pine-nut availability, 72% of the bears made minimal use of pine nuts. During years of abundant cone availability, 8 ± 10% of the bears made minimal use of pine nuts, while 67 ± 19% derived over 51% of their assimilated sulfur and nitrogen (i.e., protein) from pine nuts. Pine nuts and meat are two critically important food resources for Yellowstone grizzly bears.

Wyoming↗
USGS2016

Ungulate browsers promote herbaceous layer diversity in logged temperate forests

Ungulates are leading drivers of plant communities worldwide, with impacts linked to animal density, disturbance and vegetation structure, and site productivity. Many ecosystems have more than one ungulate species; however, few studies have specifically examined the combined effects of two or more species on plant communities. We examined the extent to which two ungulate browsers (moose [ Alces americanus ]) and white-tailed deer [ Odocoileus virginianus ]) have additive (compounding) or compensatory (opposing) effects on herbaceous layer composition and diversity, 5–6 years after timber harvest in Massachusetts, USA. We established three combinations of ungulates using two types of fenced exclosures – none (full exclosure), deer (partial exclosure), and deer + moose (control) in six replicated blocks. Species composition diverged among browser treatments, and changes were generally additive. Plant assemblages characteristic of closed canopy forests were less abundant and assemblages characteristic of open/disturbed habitats were more abundant in deer + moose plots compared with ungulate excluded areas. Browsing by deer + moose resulted in greater herbaceous species richness at the plot scale (169 m 2 ) and greater woody species richness at the subplot scale (1 m 2 ) than ungulate exclusion and deer alone. Browsing by deer + moose resulted in strong changes to the composition, structure, and diversity of forest herbaceous layers, relative to areas free of ungulates and areas browed by white-tailed deer alone. Our results provide evidence that moderate browsing in forest openings can promote both herbaceous and woody plant diversity. These results are consistent with the classic grazing-species richness curve, but have rarely been documented in forests.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2021

Differential reliance on aquatic prey subsidies influences mercury exposure in riparian arachnids and songbirds

Cross-ecosystem subsidies move substantial amounts of nutrients between ecosystems. Emergent aquatic insects are a particularly important prey source for riparian songbirds but may also move aquatic contaminants, such as mercury (Hg), to riparian food webs. While many studies focus on species that eat primarily emergent aquatic insects, we instead study riparian songbirds with flexible foraging strategies, exploiting both aquatic and terrestrial prey sources. The goal in this study is to trace reliance on aquatic prey sources and correlate it to Hg concentrations in common riparian arachnids (Families Tetragnathidae, Opiliones, and Salticidae) and songbirds (Common Yellowthroat Geothlypis trichas , Spotted Towhee Pipilo maculatus , Swainson's Thrush Catharus ustulatus , Song Sparrow Melospiza melodia , and Yellow Warbler Setophaga petechia ). We used stable isotopes of δ 13 C and δ 15 N and Bayesian mixing models in MixSIAR to determine the reliance of riparian predators on aquatic prey sources. Using mixed effects models, we found that arachnid families varied in their reliance on aquatic prey sources. While songbird species varied in their reliance on aquatic prey sources, songbirds sampled earlier in the season consistently relied more on aquatic prey sources than those sampled later in the season. For both arachnids and songbirds, we found a positive correlation between the amount of the aquatic prey source in their diet and their Hg concentrations. While the seasonal pulse of aquatic prey to terrestrial ecosystems is an important source of nutrients to riparian species, our results show that aquatic prey sources are linked with higher Hg exposure. For songbirds, reliance on aquatic prey sources early in the breeding season (and subsequent higher Hg exposure) coincides with timing of egg laying and development, both of which may be impacted by Hg exposure.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2016

Biological invasions, ecological resilience and adaptive governance

In a world of increasing interconnections in global trade as well as rapid change in climate and land cover, the accelerating introduction and spread of invasive species is a critical concern due to associated negative social and ecological impacts, both real and perceived. Much of the societal response to invasive species to date has been associated with negative economic consequences of invasions. This response has shaped a war-like approach to addressing invasions, one with an agenda of eradications and intense ecological restoration efforts towards prior or more desirable ecological regimes. This trajectory often ignores the concept of ecological resilience and associated approaches of resilience-based governance. We argue that the relationship between ecological resilience and invasive species has been understudied to the detriment of attempts to govern invasions, and that most management actions fail, primarily because they do not incorporate adaptive, learning-based approaches. Invasive species can decrease resilience by reducing the biodiversity that underpins ecological functions and processes, making ecosystems more prone to regime shifts. However, invasions do not always result in a shift to an alternative regime; invasions can also increase resilience by introducing novelty, replacing lost ecological functions or adding redundancy that strengthens already existing structures and processes in an ecosystem. This paper examines the potential impacts of species invasions on the resilience of ecosystems and suggests that resilience-based approaches can inform policy by linking the governance of biological invasions to the negotiation of tradeoffs between ecosystem services.

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS2017

Pinyon and juniper encroachment into sagebrush ecosystems impacts distribution and survival of greater sage-grouse

In sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems, encroachment of pinyon ( Pinus spp.) and juniper ( Juniperus spp.; hereafter, “pinyon-juniper”) trees has increased dramatically since European settlement. Understanding the impacts of this encroachment on behavioral decisions, distributions, and population dynamics of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) and other sagebrush obligate species could help benefit sagebrush ecosystem management actions. We employed a novel two-stage Bayesian model that linked avoidance across different levels of pinyon-juniper cover to sage-grouse survival. Our analysis relied on extensive telemetry data collected across 6 yr and seven subpopulations within the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment (DPS), on the border of Nevada and California. The first model stage indicated avoidance behavior for all canopy cover classes on average, but individual grouse exhibited a high degree of heterogeneity in avoidance behavior of the lowest cover class (e.g., scattered isolated trees). The second stage modeled survival as a function of estimated avoidance parameters and indicated increased survival rates for individuals that exhibited avoidance of the lowest cover class. A post hoc frailty analysis revealed the greatest increase in hazard (i.e., mortality risk) occurred in areas with scattered isolated trees consisting of relatively high primary plant productivity. Collectively, these results provide clear evidence that local sage-grouse distributions and demographic rates are influenced by pinyon-juniper, especially in habitats with higher primary productivity but relatively low and seemingly benign tree cover. Such areas may function as ecological traps that convey attractive resources but adversely affect population vital rates. To increase sage-grouse survival, our model predictions support reducing actual pinyon-juniper cover as low as 1.5%, which is lower than the published target of 4.0%. These results may represent effects of pinyon-juniper cover in areas with similar ecological conditions to those of the Bi-State DPS, where populations occur at relatively high elevations and pinyon-juniper is abundant and widespread.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗
USGS2003

Mapping vegetation in Yellowstone National Park using spectral feature analysis of AVIRIS data

Knowledge of the distribution of vegetation on the landscape can be used to investigate ecosystem functioning. The sizes and movements of animal populations can be linked to resources provided by different plant species. This paper demonstrates the application of imaging spectroscopy to the study of vegetation in Yellowstone National Park (Yellowstone) using spectral feature analysis of data from the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS). AVIRIS data, acquired on August 7, 1996, were calibrated to surface reflectance using a radiative transfer model and field reflectance measurements of a ground calibration site. A spectral library of canopy reflectance signatures was created by averaging pixels of the calibrated AVIRIS data over areas of known forest and nonforest vegetation cover types in Yellowstone. Using continuum removal and least squares fitting algorithms in the US Geological Survey's Tetracorder expert system, the distributions of these vegetation types were determined by comparing the absorption features of vegetation in the spectral library with the spectra from the AVIRIS data. The 0.68 μm chlorophyll absorption feature and leaf water absorption features, centered near 0.98 and 1.20 μm, were analyzed. Nonforest cover types of sagebrush, grasslands, willows, sedges, and other wetland vegetation were mapped in the Lamar Valley of Yellowstone. Conifer cover types of lodgepole pine, whitebark pine, Douglas fir, and mixed Engelmann spruce/subalpine fir forests were spectrally discriminated and their distributions mapped in the AVIRIS images. In the Mount Washburn area of Yellowstone, a comparison of the AVIRIS map of forest cover types to a map derived from air photos resulted in an overall agreement of 74.1% (kappa statistic=0.62).

Wyoming↗
USGS2016

Invasive European bird cherry disrupts stream-riparian linkages: effects on terrestrial invertebrate prey subsidies for juvenile coho salmon

The spread of invasive species in riparian forests has the potential to affect both terrestrial and aquatic organisms linked through cross-ecosystem resource subsidies. However, this potential had not been explored in regards to terrestrial prey subsidies for stream fishes. To address this, we examined the effects of an invasive riparian tree, European bird cherry (EBC, Prunus padus ), spreading along urban Alaskan salmon streams, by collecting terrestrial invertebrates present on the foliage of riparian trees, their subsidies to streams, and their consumption by juvenile coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ). Riparian EBC supported four to six times less terrestrial invertebrate biomass on its foliage and contributed two to three times lower subsidies relative to native deciduous trees. This reduction in terrestrial invertebrate biomass was consistent between two watersheds over 2 years. In spite of this reduction in terrestrial prey resource input, juvenile coho salmon consumed similar levels of terrestrial invertebrates in stream reaches bordered by EBC. Although we did not see ecological effects extending to stream salmonids, reduced terrestrial prey subsidies to streams are likely to have negative consequences as EBC continues to spread.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
USGS2014

Depth gradients in food-web processes linking habitats in large lakes: Lake Superior as an exemplar ecosystem

In large lakes around the world, depth-based changes in the abundance and distribution of invertebrate and fish species suggest that there may be concomitant changes in patterns of resource allocation. Using Lake Superior of the Laurentian Great Lakes as an example, we explored this idea through stable isotope analyses of 13 major fish taxa. Patterns in carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios revealed use of both littoral and profundal benthos among populations of most taxa analysed regardless of the depth of their habitat, providing evidence of nearshore–offshore trophic linkages in the largest freshwater lake by area in the world. Isotope-mixing model results indicated that the overall importance of benthic food-web pathways to fish was highest in nearshore species, whereas the importance of planktonic pathways increased in offshore species. These characteristics, shared with the Great Lakes of Africa, Russia and Japan, appear to be governed by two key processes: high benthic production in nearshore waters and the prevalence of diel vertical migration (DVM) among offshore invertebrate and fish taxa. DVM facilitates use of pelagic food resources by deep-water biota and represents an important process of trophic linkage among habitats in large lakes. Support of whole-lake food webs through trophic linkages among pelagic, profundal and littoral habitats appears to be integral to the functioning of large lakes. These linkages can be disrupted though ecosystem disturbance such as eutrophication or the effects of invasive species and should be considered in native species restoration efforts.

Lake Superior↗
USGS2022

Models combining multiple scales of inference capture hydrologic and climatic drivers of riparian tree distributions

Predicting species geographic distributions is key to managing invasive species, conserving biodiversity, and understanding species' environmental requirements. Species distribution models (SDMs) commonly focus on climatic predictors, but other environmental factors can also be essential, particularly for species with specialized habitats defined by hydrologic, topographic, or edaphic conditions (e.g., riparian, wetland, alpine, coastal, serpentine). Here, we demonstrate a novel approach for capturing strong effects of both hydrologic and climatic predictors in SDMs for riparian plants, by merging analyses targeted at environmental drivers within riparian ecosystems and across the western USA (3.8 × 10 6 km 2 ). We developed presence-background SDMs from five algorithms for three invasive riparian trees ( Tamarix ramossisima / chinensis [saltcedar], Elaeagnus angustifolia [Russian olive], and Ulmus pumila [Siberian elm]) and three native Populus spp. (cottonwoods). We used separate background datasets to develop models with different spatial scales of inference: (1) spatially filtered random points to represent available habitat across the study area and (2) target-group points from Salix (willow) occurrences to represent available riparian habitat. Random-background models captured hydrologic drivers of riparian tree distributions relative to the largely upland western USA, whereas Salix -background models captured climatic drivers within the context of riparian ecosystems. Combining predictions from the two backgrounds identified hydrologically suitable habitats within climatically suitable regions, resulting in fewer false “absences” than either background alone, improving predictions over previous SDMs, and providing more complete information to guide management decisions. Surprisingly, the predicted habitat for U. pumila , a newly recognized riparian invader, was as or more extensive than Populus deltoides / fremontii , T. ramossisima / chinensis , and E. angustifolia , the most common riparian tree complexes in the western USA. Watersheds constituting 20% of U. pumila predicted habitat contained no occurrence records, indicating high risk of future and unrecognized invasions. Combining models from random and ecosystem-specific target-group backgrounds may improve SDMs for species from many specialized habitats, providing a method to link predicted distributions to localized geographic features while capturing broad-scale climatic requirements.

western United States↗
USGS2025

Linking environmental variability to long-term demographic change of an endangered species using integrated population models

Understanding how species populations change with environmental conditions is important for implementing effective habitat management and conservation strategies. Challenges to evaluating population-level responses to environmental conditions arise when data are sparse or not spatiotemporally aligned, especially for at-risk species with small, declining numbers. We synthesized 30 years (1992–2021) of three partially aligned data sets to build a Bayesian integrated population model (IPM) and evaluate demographic and environmental drivers of growth rates for six separately managed ‘subpopulations’ (A–F) of the federally endangered Cape Sable seaside sparrow endemic to the Florida Everglades. We found that juvenile survival peaked at inundation periods (hydroperiods) around 100–220 days and dropped sharply outside those values, while adult survival increased with longer periods of water depth <20 cm, but not with longer periods of water depth >20 cm. Fecundity increased when water depths were more stable, more area was dry, intervals between fires were longer and less area was burned. Changes in population growth rates tended to occur in years that juvenile and adult survival were associated with hydroperiod, especially in the two largest subpopulations B and E. Population growth rates were also associated with hydrologic conditions during the breeding season and fire dynamics through changes in fecundity, most notably in the smaller subpopulations A, C/F and D. Synthesis and applications . Our IPM represents the first long-term population analysis of the Cape Sable seaside sparrow connecting demographic processes to environmental factors. Our results suggest that sustaining periods of shallow water year-round may enhance Cape Sable seaside sparrow survival and population growth. Also, limiting water depth variability and maintaining dry conditions during the breeding season and inhibiting fires in consecutive years may increase fecundity and population growth. Identifying the mechanistic links between environmental and population dynamics could inform how species are expected to respond to management decisions and anticipated ecosystem changes.

Florida↗
USGS2024

Snow avalanches are a primary climate-linked driver of mountain ungulate populations

Snow is a major, climate-sensitive feature of the Earth’s surface and catalyst of fundamentally important ecosystem processes. Understanding how snow influences sentinel species in rapidly changing mountain ecosystems is particularly critical. Whereas effects of snow on food availability, energy expenditure, and predation are well documented, we report how avalanches exert major impacts on an ecologically significant mountain ungulate - the coastal Alaskan mountain goat ( Oreamnos americanus ). Using long-term GPS data and field observations across four populations (421 individuals over 17 years), we show that avalanches caused 23−65% of all mortality, depending on area. Deaths varied seasonally and were directly linked to spatial movement patterns and avalanche terrain use. Population-level avalanche mortality, 61% of which comprised reproductively important prime-aged individuals, averaged 8% annually and exceeded 22% when avalanche conditions were severe. Our findings reveal a widespread but previously undescribed pathway by which snow can elicit major population-level impacts and shape demographic characteristics of slow-growing populations of mountain-adapted animals.

Alaska↗
USGS2016

Transition of vegetation states positively affects harvester ants in the Great Basin, United States

Invasions by non-native plants can alter ecosystems such that new ecological states are reached, but less is known about how these transitions influence animal populations. Sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) ecosystems are experiencing state changes because of fire and invasion by exotic annual grasses. Our goal was to study the effects of these state changes on the Owyhee and western harvester ants ( Pogonomyrmex salinus Olsen and P. occidentalis Cresson, respectively). We sampled 358 1-ha plots across the northern Great Basin, which captured unburned and burned conditions across 1 −≥31 years postfire. Our results indicated an immediate and consistent change in vegetation states from shrubland to grassland between 1 and 31 years postfire. Harvester ant occupancy was unrelated to time since fire, whereas we observed a positive effect of fire on nest density. Similarly, we discovered that fire and invasion by exotic annuals were weak predictors of harvester ant occupancy but strong predictors of nest density. Occupancy of harvester ants was more likely in areas with finer-textured soils, low precipitation, abundant native forbs, and low shrub cover. Nest density was higher in arid locations that recently burned and exhibited abundant exotic annual and perennial (exotic and native) grasses. Finally, we discovered that burned areas that received postfire restoration had minimal influence on harvester ant occupancy or nest density compared with burned and untreated areas. These results suggest that fire-induced state changes from native shrublands to grasslands dominated by non-native grasses have a positive effect on density of harvester ants (but not occupancy), and that postfire restoration does not appear to positively or negatively affect harvester ants. Although wildfire and invasion by exotic annual grasses may negatively affect other species, harvester ants may indeed be one of the few winners among a myriad of losers linked to vegetation state changes within sagebrush ecosystems.

Great Basin↗
USGS2021

Vulnerability of Pacific salmon to invasion of northern pike (Esox lucius) in Southcentral Alaska

The relentless role of invasive species in the extinction of native biota requires predictions of ecosystem vulnerability to inform proactive management strategies. The worldwide invasion and range expansion of predatory northern pike ( Esox lucius ) has been linked to the decline of native fishes and tools are needed to predict the vulnerability of habitats to invasion over broad geographic scales. To address this need, we coupled an intrinsic potential habitat modelling approach with a Bayesian network to evaluate the vulnerability of five culturally and economically vital species of Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.) to invasion by northern pike. This study was conducted along 22,875 stream km in the Southcentral region of Alaska, USA. Pink salmon ( O . gorbuscha ) were the most vulnerable species, with 15.2% (2,458 km) of their calculated extent identified as “highly” vulnerable, followed closely by chum salmon ( O . keta , 14.8%; 2,557 km) and coho salmon ( O . kisutch , 14.7%; 2,536 km). Moreover, all five Pacific salmon species were highly vulnerable in 1,001 stream km of shared habitat. This simple to implement, adaptable, and cost-effective framework will allow prioritizing habitats for early detection and monitoring of invading northern pike.

Alaska↗
USGS2011

Predicting phenology by integrating ecology, evolution and climate science

Forecasting how species and ecosystems will respond to climate change has been a major aim of ecology in recent years. Much of this research has focused on phenology – the timing of life‐history events. Phenology has well‐demonstrated links to climate, from genetic to landscape scales; yet our ability to explain and predict variation in phenology across species, habitats and time remains poor. Here, we outline how merging approaches from ecology, climate science and evolutionary biology can advance research on phenological responses to climate variability. Using insight into seasonal and interannual climate variability combined with niche theory and community phylogenetics, we develop a predictive approach for species’ reponses to changing climate. Our approach predicts that species occupying higher latitudes or the early growing season should be most sensitive to climate and have the most phylogenetically conserved phenologies. We further predict that temperate species will respond to climate change by shifting in time, while tropical species will respond by shifting space, or by evolving. Although we focus here on plant phenology, our approach is broadly applicable to ecological research of plant responses to climate variability.

Global Change Biology↗