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Results for “Journal of Water and Climate Change”

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At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2011

Links between type E botulism outbreaks, lake levels, and surface water temperatures in Lake Michigan, 1963-2008

Relationships between large-scale environmental factors and the incidence of type E avian botulism outbreaks in Lake Michigan were examined from 1963 to 2008. Avian botulism outbreaks most frequently occurred in years with low mean annual water levels, and lake levels were significantly lower in outbreak years than in non-outbreak years. Mean surface water temperatures in northern Lake Michigan during the period when type E outbreaks tend to occur (July through September) were significantly higher in outbreak years than in non-outbreak years. Trends in fish populations did not strongly correlate with botulism outbreaks, although botulism outbreaks in the 1960s coincided with high alewife abundance, and recent botulism outbreaks coincided with rapidly increasing round goby abundance. Botulism outbreaks occurred cyclically, and the frequency of outbreaks did not increase over the period of record. Climate change scenarios for the Great Lakes predict lower water levels and warmer water temperatures. As a consequence, the frequency and magnitude of type E botulism outbreaks in the Great Lakes may increase.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin↗
USGS1997

Sedimentary history and mass flow structures of Chryse and Acidalia Planitiae, Mars

Geologic mapping and crater counting in Chryse and Acidalia Planitiae (GAP) reveal five major sedimentary deposits of Hesperian to Early Amazonian age, including (1) a mass flow deposited during the Early Hesperian near Deuteronilus Mensae (northeast of the map region) that may have resulted from the carving of Kasei Valles, >3000 km southwest of the exposed part of the deposit; (2) knobby plains material consisting of channel (likely; from Simud and Tiu Valles and possibly Ares and Shalbatana Valles) and mass-wasting deposits in central and eastern CAP; (3) material largely from Maja and Ares Valles emplaced in at least western and southern CAP (outcrops in southern Chryse Planitia developed thermokarst); (4) a thin mass flow covering much of southern Chryse Planitia that emanated from Simud and Tiu Valles; and (5) a thick, extensive (perhaps >3500 km across) mass flow deposit in central and northern CAP derived from accumulation and backflow of the preceding thin mass flow or perhaps melting of polar deposits. Other possible deposits may not be recognizable owing to burial by younger materials or a lack of morphologic signature. Various associated landforms appear to be consistent with the mass flow interpretations, including lobate and linear scarps along deposit edges, fractures related to desiccation of thick sediments, troughs, and ridges near the edges of the deposit indicative of secondary mass movement and deformation, pitted domes and fissure-fed flows possibly formed by sedimentary (mud) eruptions, and longitudinal channel grooves perhaps formed by roller vortices. No convincing evidence for paleoshorelines or stagnant ice sheets is found in CAP. These findings suggest that mass flow and hyperconcentrated flooding may have been the predominant processes of outflow-channel dissection in CAP. Elsewhere in the northern plains, similar landforms are prevalent. The mass flow interpretation does not require either multiple episodes of extraordinarily high water-discharge rates achieved by freeing huge volumes of water from the crust, repetitive recycling of immense volumes of water into highland aquifers at the heads of Chryse channels, or profound climate change. Mars Pathfinder will most likely land on and inspect the surface of the thin mass flow that originated from the canyons of Simud and Tiu Valles.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2013

Storm surges and climate change implications for tidal marshes: Insight from the San Francisco Bay Estuary, California, USA

Tidal marshes are dynamic ecosystems, which are influenced by oceanic and freshwater processes and daily changes in sea level. Projected sea-level rise and changes in storm frequency and intensity will affect tidal marshes by altering suspended sediment supply, plant communities, and the inundation duration and depth of the marsh platform. The objective of this research was to evaluate if regional weather conditions resulting in low-pressure storms changed tidal conditions locally within three tidal marshes. We hypothesized that regional storms will increase sea level heights locally, resulting in increased inundation of the tidal marsh platform and plant communities. Using site-level measurements of elevation, plant communities, and water levels, we present results from two storm events in 2010 and 2011 from the San Francisco Bay Estuary (SFBE), California, USA. The January 2010 storm had the lowest recorded sea level pressure in the last 30 years for this region. During the storm episodes, the duration of tidal marsh inundation was 1.8 and 3.1 times greater than average for that time of year, respectively. At peak storm surges, over 65% in 2010 and 93% in 2011 of the plant community was under water. We also discuss the implications of these types of storms and projected sea-level rise on the structure and function of the tidal marshes and how that will impact the hydro-geomorphic processes and marsh biotic communities.

California↗
USGS2015

Role of ground ice dynamics and ecological feedbacks in recent ice wedge degradation and stabilization

Ground ice is abundant in the upper permafrost throughout the Arctic and fundamentally affects terrain responses to climate warming. Ice wedges, which form near the surface and are the dominant type of massive ice in the Arctic, are particularly vulnerable to warming. Yet processes controlling ice wedge degradation and stabilization are poorly understood. Here we quantified ice wedge volume and degradation rates, compared ground ice characteristics and thermal regimes across a sequence of five degradation and stabilization stages and evaluated biophysical feedbacks controlling permafrost stability near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska. Mean ice wedge volume in the top 3 m of permafrost was 21%. Imagery from 1949 to 2012 showed thermokarst extent (area of water-filled troughs) was relatively small from 1949 (0.9%) to 1988 (1.5%), abruptly increased by 2004 (6.3%) and increased slightly by 2012 (7.5%). Mean annual surface temperatures varied by 4.9°C among degradation and stabilization stages and by 9.9°C from polygon center to deep lake bottom. Mean thicknesses of the active layer, ice-poor transient layer, ice-rich intermediate layer, thermokarst cave ice, and wedge ice varied substantially among stages. In early stages, thaw settlement caused water to impound in thermokarst troughs, creating positive feedbacks that increased net radiation, soil heat flux, and soil temperatures. Plant growth and organic matter accumulation in the degraded troughs provided negative feedbacks that allowed ground ice to aggrade and heave the surface, thus reducing surface water depth and soil temperatures in later stages. The ground ice dynamics and ecological feedbacks greatly complicate efforts to assess permafrost responses to climate change.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2008

Short-term response of methane fluxes and methanogen activity to water table and soil warming manipulations in an Alaskan peatland

Growing season CH 4 fluxes were monitored over a two year period following the start of ecosystem-scale manipulations of water table position and surface soil temperatures in a moderate rich fen in interior Alaska. The largest CH 4 fluxes occurred in plots that received both flooding (raised water table position) and soil warming, while the lowest fluxes occurred in unwarmed plots in the lowered water table treatment. A combination of treatment and soil hydroclimate variables explained more than 70% of the variation in ln-transformed CH 4 fluxes, with mean daily water table position representing the strongest predictor. We used quantitative PCR of the α -subunit of mcr operon to explore the influence of soil climate manipulations on methanogen abundances. Methanogen abundances were greatest in warmed plots, and showed a positive relationship with mean daily CH 4 fluxes. Our results show that water table manipulations that led to soil inundation (flooding) had a stronger effect on CH 4 fluxes than water table drawdown. Seasonal CH 4 fluxes increased by 80–300% under the combined wetter and warmer soil climate treatments. Thus, while warming is expected to increase CH 4 emissions from Alaskan wetlands, higher water table positions caused by increases in precipitation or disturbances such as permafrost thaw that lead to thermokarst and flooding in wetlands will stimulate CH 4 emissions beyond the effects of soil warming alone. Consequently, we argue that modeling the effects of climate change on Alaskan wetland CH 4 emissions needs to consider the interactive effects of soil warming and water table position on CH 4 production and transport.

Alaska↗
USGS2017

A hydrologic drying bias in water-resource impact analyses of anthropogenic climate change

For water-resource planning, sensitivity of freshwater availability to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) often is analyzed with “offline” hydrologic models that use precipitation and potential evapotranspiration ( E p ) as inputs. Because E p is not a climate-model output, an intermediary model of E p must be introduced to connect the climate model to the hydrologic model. Several E p methods are used. The suitability of each can be assessed by noting a credible E p method for offline analyses should be able to reproduce climate models’ ACC-driven changes in actual evapotranspiration in regions and seasons of negligible water stress ( E w ). We quantified this ability for seven commonly used E p methods and for a simple proportionality with available energy (“energy-only” method). With the exception of the energy-only method, all methods tend to overestimate substantially the increase in E p associated with ACC. In an offline hydrologic model, the E p -change biases produce excessive increases in actual evapotranspiration ( E ), whether the system experiences water stress or not, and thence strong negative biases in runoff change, as compared to hydrologic fluxes in the driving climate models. The runoff biases are comparable in magnitude to the ACC-induced runoff changes themselves. These results suggest future hydrologic drying (wetting) trends likely are being systematically and substantially overestimated (underestimated) in many water-resource impact analyses.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2015

Deep-sea ostracods from the South Atlantic sector of the Southern ocean during the Last 370,000 years

We report changes of deep-sea ostracod fauna during the last 370,000 yr from the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Hole 704A in the South Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. The results show that faunal changes are coincident with glacial/interglacial-scale deep-water circulation changes, even though our dataset is relatively small and the waters are barren of ostracods until mid-MIS (Marine Isotope Stage) 5. Krithe and Poseidonamicus were dominant during the Holocene interglacial period and the latter part of MIS 5, when this site was under the influence of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). Conversely, Henryhowella and Legitimocythere were dominant during glacial periods, when this site was in the path of Circumpolar Deep Water (CPDW). Three new species (Aversovalva brandaoae, Poseidonamicus hisayoae, and Krithe mazziniae) are described herein. This is the first report of Quaternary glacial/interglacial scale deep-sea ostracod faunal changes in the Southern and South Atlantic Oceans, a key region for understanding Quaternary climate and deep-water circulation, although the paucity of Quaternary ostracods in this region necessitates further research. ?? 2009 The Paleontological Society.

Journal of Paleontology↗
USGS2018

Landscape pivot points and responses to water balance in national parks of the southwest US

A recent drying trend that is expected to continue in the southwestern US underscores the need for site‐specific and near real‐time understanding of vegetation vulnerability so that land management actions can be implemented at the right time and place. We related the annual integrated normalized difference vegetation index (iNDVI), a proxy for vegetation production, to water balance across landscapes of the Colorado Plateau. We determined how changes in production per unit of water (vegetation responses) and the water balance amounts at which production shifted from above to below average values (pivot points), varied across dominant vegetation and soil types. Precipitation (PRCP), actual evapotranspiration (AET), water deficit ( D ), and soil moisture (SM) explained 13%–82% of variation in vegetation production. Along an increasing water availability gradient, vegetation responses to PRCP and AET increased, responses to SM decreased, and responses to D became more negative. We found trade‐offs between vegetation responses and pivot points within and across all vegetation types that were mediated by soil properties. Synthesis and applications . The water needed by native vegetation to maintain production depends on plant traits. The water available to vegetation depends on climate and soil properties that change along environmental gradients. Tracking this biologically relevant water availability in relation to water need provides an indicator of vegetation growth or stress that can help guide the time and place for management actions.

Colorado, Utah↗
USGS2023

Broadening the perspectives of sedimentary organic matter analysis to understand Earth system response to change

This paper broadens the description of sedimentary organic matter from the conventional use of coal petrography to include palynological and geochemical sedimentary organic matter. Palynological sedimentary organic matter includes all chemically resistant organic microfossils, such as pollen and spores, dinocysts, microforaminifera (chitinoid-like linings of foraminifera), microscopic algae, charcoal, palynodebris, acritarchs, chitinozoans, and scolecodonts. Geochemical sedimentary organic matter includes organic biomarkers, lipids, and photosynthetic pigments. We provide examples of the use of palynological and geochemical analysis of sedimentary organic matter to understand patterns and impacts of changing climate, fire regimes, hydrologic extremes, water quality, and land change on terrestrial and marine systems through geologic time to provide a long-term perspective to evaluate anthropogenic impacts on the Earth as well as to support forensics investigations.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗
USGS2010

Interactions between walleyes and smallmouth bass in a Missouri River reservoir with consideration of the influence of temperature and prey

Walleyes Sander vitreus are the most popular fish among South Dakota anglers, but smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu were introduced to provide new angling opportunities. Some walleye anglers have reported reductions in the quality of walleye fisheries since the introduction of smallmouth bass and attribute this to the consumption of young walleyes by smallmouth bass and competition for shared prey resources. We quantified the diets of walleyes and smallmouth bass in the lower reaches of Lake Sharpe (a Missouri River reservoir), calculated the diet overlap between the two predators, and determined whether they partitioned shared prey based on size. We also quantified walleye diets in the upper reach of the reservoir, which has a different prey base and allowed us to compare the growth rates of walleyes within Lake Sharpe. Age-0 gizzard shad Dorosoma cepedianum composed a substantial proportion of the diets of both predators, regardless of location, for most of the growing season; the patterns in shad vulnerability appeared to drive the observed patterns in diet overlap. Smallmouth bass appeared to consume a smaller size range of gizzard shad than did walleyes, which consumed a wide range. Smallmouth bass consumed Sander spp. in some months, but in very low quantities. Given that global climate change is expected to alter the population and community dynamics in Great Plains reservoirs, we also used a bioenergetics approach to predict the potential effects of limiting prey availability (specifically, the absence of gizzard shad and rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax ) and increased water temperatures (as projected from global climate change models) on walleye and smallmouth bass growth. The models indicated that the absence of rainbow smelt from the diets of walleyes in upper Lake Sharpe would reduce growth but that the absence of gizzard shad would have a more marked negative effect on both predators at both locations. The models also indicated that higher water temperatures would have an even greater negative influence on walleye growth; however, smallmouth bass growth was predicted to increase with higher temperatures. Fisheries managers should consider strategies to enhance the prey base or mitigate the effects of increased water temperatures that may occur in the future as a result of global climate change. Such proactive actions may alleviate potential future competition between walleyes and smallmouth bass resulting from changes in the fish community.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗
USGS2007

Potential effects of climate change on surface-water quality in North America

Data from long-term ecosystem monitoring and research stations in North America and results of simulations made with interpretive models indicate that changes in climate (precipitation and temperature) can have a significant effect on the quality of surface waters. Changes in water quality during storms, snowmelt, and periods of elevated air temperature or drought can cause conditions that exceed thresholds of ecosystem tolerance and, thus, lead to water-quality degradation. If warming and changes in available moisture occur, water-quality changes will likely first occur during episodes of climate-induced stress, and in ecosystems where the factors controlling water quality are sensitive to climate variability. Continued climate stress would increase the frequency with which ecosystem thresholds are exceeded and thus lead to chronic water-quality changes. Management strategies in a warmer climate will therefore be needed that are based on local ecological thresholds rather than annual median condition. Changes in land use alter biological, physical, and chemical processes in watersheds and thus significantly alter the quality of adjacent surface waters; these direct human-caused changes complicate the interpretation of water-quality changes resulting from changes in climate, and can be both mitigated and exacerbated by climate change. A rigorous strategy for integrated, long-term monitoring of the ecological and human factors that control water quality is necessary to differentiate between actual and perceived climate effects, and to track the effectiveness of our environmental policies.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2006

Water color affects the stratification, surface temperature, heat content, and mean epilimnetic irradiance of small lakes

The effects of water color on lake stratification, mean epilimnetic irradiance, and lake temperature dynamics were examined in small, north-temperate lakes that differed widely in water color (1.5-19.8 m -1). Among these lakes, colored lakes differed from clear lakes in the following ways: (i) the epilimnia were shallower and colder, and mean epilimnetic irradiance was reduced; (ii) the diel temperature cycles were more pronounced; (iii) whole-lake heat accumulation during stratification was reduced. The depth of the epilimnion ranged from 2.5 m in the clearest lake to 0.75 m in the most colored lake, and 91% of the variation in epilimnetic depth was explained by water color. Summer mean morning epilimnetic temperature was ???2??C cooler in the most colored lake compared with the clearest lake. In clear lakes, the diel temperature range (1.4 ?? 0.7??C) was significantly (p = 0.01) less than that in the most colored lake (2.1 ?? 1.0??C). Change in whole-lake heat content was negatively correlated with water color. Increasing water color decreased light penetration more than thermocline depth, leading to reduced mean epilimnetic irradiance in the colored lakes. Thus, in these small lakes, water color significantly affected temperature, thermocline depth, and light climate. ?? 2006 NRC.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
USGS2020

Low stand density moderates growth declines during hot droughts in semi-arid forests

Increasing heat and aridity in coming decades is expected to negatively impact tree growth and threaten forest sustainability in dry areas. Maintaining low stand density has the potential to mitigate the negative effects of increasingly severe droughts by minimizing competitive intensity. However, the direct impact of stand density on the growing environment (i.e. soil moisture), and the specific drought metrics that best quantify that environment, are not well explored for any forest ecosystem. We examined the relationship of varying stand density (i.e. basal area) on soil moisture and stand‐level growth in a long‐term (multi‐decadal), ponderosa pine Pinus ponderosa , forest management experiment. We accounted for the influence of stand‐level density on moisture availability by measuring and modelling soil moisture using an ecosystem water balance model. To quantify the growing environment, we developed metrics of ecological drought that integrate the influence of moisture availability in the soil with moisture demand by the atmosphere. We paired these results with stand‐level dendrochronological data, avoiding the potential bias introduced from individual tree‐based assessments, and used critical climate period analysis to identify the timing and duration of these drought metrics that most relate to forest growth. We found that stand‐level growth is highly responsive to the combination of high temperature and low soil moisture. Growth in all stands was negatively related to temperature and positively related to moisture availability, although the sensitivity of growth to those conditions varied among stand density treatments. Growth enhancement during cool years is greatest in low density stands. In addition, low density stands displayed substantially higher long‐term average growth than higher density stands and maintained higher growth even when temperatures were high. Growth in low density stands also increased more than higher density stands in response to greater long‐term moisture availability. Synthesis and applications . We quantified the influence of stand‐level density on the environmental conditions that determine tree growth and related forest growth to patterns of moisture supply and demand. Our drought metrics, and analytical approach for quantifying drought impacts on forest growth, are a novel approach for assessing forest vulnerability to drought under climate change. These results provide new perspective on the potential for density management to mitigate drought stress and maintain forest stand growth during and after drought events in water‐limited forests.

Arizona↗
USGS1975

A late Holocene pollen record from Pearson's Pond, Weeks Creek landslide, San Francisco Peninsula, California

A 210-cm core from Pearson's Pond yielded a pollen record for the past 3 millenia. Prior to A.D. 1000 the pond biota was particularly sensitive to climatic fluctuations. Two wet intervals occur in the pollen record, between 350 B.C. and A.I). 0 and between A.D. 650 and 900. The pollen record suggests that the Weeks Creek landslide may have moved at least twice prior to 3,000 years ago and that the middle part of the glide has been stable since that time. Seasonal changes produce large annual fluctuations in the water table, and climatic changes during the past 3,000 years have produced significant changes in the timing and magnitude of the annual changes. Climatic records such as the one presented here will help us to understand and separate the effects of climate and earthquakes on the landslide history of the Holocene deposits of the San Francisco Bay area.

California↗
USGS2019

Using a mechanistic model to develop management strategies to cool Apache Trout streams under the threat of climate change

User‐friendly stream temperature models populated with on‐site data may help in developing strategies to manage temperatures of individual stream reaches that are subject to climate change. We used the field‐tested Stream Segment Temperature model (U.S. Geological Survey) to simulate how altering discharge, groundwater input, channel wetted width, and shade prevents the temperatures of White Mountain, Arizona, stream reaches from exceeding the thermal tolerance of Apache Trout Oncorhynchus apache , both under existing conditions and under a climate change scenario. Simulations suggested increasing shade, either through streamside planting of specific numbers and species of plants or by other means, would be most effective and feasible for cooling the stream reaches we studied. Ponderosa pine Pinus ponderosa and Douglas fir Pseudotsuga menziesii provided the most shade followed in order by Engelman spruce Picea engelmannii , Bebb's willow Salix bebbiana , Arizona alder Alnus oblongifolia , and finally coyote willow Salix exigua . Vegetation survival depends on the appropriateness of site conditions at present and under climate change, and planting in buffer strips minimizes additional water removal from the watershed through evapotranspiration. Alternative shading options, including thick sedge growth, shade cloth, or felled woody vegetation, may be considered when environmental conditions do not support plantings. Increasing groundwater input can cool streams, but additional sources are scarce in the region. Decreasing the width‐to‐depth ratio would succeed best on reaches with widths greater than 2.0 m. Increasing discharge from upstream may lower water temperature on reaches with an initial discharge greater than 0.5 m 3 /s. Existing models provide suggestions to cool stream reaches. Further development of accessible software packages that incorporate evaporation, fragmentation, and other projected climate change effects into their routines will provide additional tools to help manage climate change effects.

Arizona↗
USGS2022

Terrestrial ecosystem modeling with IBIS: Progress and future vision

Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVM) are powerful tools for studying complicated ecosystem processes and global changes. This review article synthesizes the developments and applications of the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), a DGVM, over the past two decades. IBIS has been used to evaluate carbon, nitrogen, and water cycling in terrestrial ecosystems, vegetation changes, land-atmosphere interactions, land-aquatic system integration, and climate change impacts. Here we summarize model development work since IBIS v2.5, covering hydrology (evapotranspiration, groundwater, lateral routing), vegetation dynamics (plant functional type, land cover change), plant physiology (phenology, photosynthesis, carbon allocation, growth), biogeochemistry (soil carbon and nitrogen processes, greenhouse gas emissions), impacts of natural disturbances (drought, insect damage, fire) and human induced land use changes, and computational improvements. We also summarize IBIS model applications around the world in evaluating ecosystem productivity, carbon and water budgets, water use efficiency, natural disturbance effects, and impacts of climate change and land use change on the carbon cycle. Based on this review, visions of future cross-scale, cross-landscape and cross-system model development and applications are discussed.

Journal of Resources and Ecology↗
USGS2024

A semi-mechanistic model for partitioning evapotranspiration reveals transpiration dominates the water flux in drylands

Popular evapotranspiration (ET) partitioning methods make assumptions that might not be well-suited to dryland ecosystems, such as high sensitivity of plant water-use efficiency (WUE) to vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Our objectives were to (a) create an ET partitioning model that can produce fine-scale estimates of transpiration (T) in drylands, and (b) use this approach to evaluate how climate controls T and WUE across ecosystem types and timescales along a dryland aridity gradient. We developed a novel, semi-mechanistic ET partitioning method using a Bayesian approach that constrains abiotic evaporation using process-based models, and loosely constrains time-varying WUE within an autoregressive framework. We used this method to estimate daily T and weekly WUE across seven dryland ecosystem types and found that T dominates ET across the aridity gradient. Then, we applied cross-wavelet coherence analysis to evaluate the temporal coherence between focal response variables (WUE and T/ET) and environmental variables. At yearly scales, we found that WUE at less arid, higher elevation sites was primarily limited by atmospheric moisture demand, and WUE at more arid, lower elevation sites was primarily limited by moisture supply. At sub-yearly timescales, WUE and VPD were sporadically correlated. Hence, ecosystem-scale dryland WUE is not always sensitive to changes in VPD at short timescales, despite this being a common assumption in many ET partitioning models. This new ET partitioning method can be used in dryland ecosystems to better understand how climate influences physically and biologically driven water fluxes.

New Mexico↗
USGS2012

Modeling thermal dynamics of active layer soils and near-surface permafrost using a fully coupled water and heat transport model

Thawing and freezing processes are key components in permafrost dynamics, and these processes play an important role in regulating the hydrological and carbon cycles in the northern high latitudes. In the present study, we apply a well-developed soil thermal model that fully couples heat and water transport, to simulate the thawing and freezing processes at daily time steps across multiple sites that vary with vegetation cover, disturbance history, and climate. The model performance was evaluated by comparing modeled and measured soil temperatures at different depths. We use the model to explore the influence of climate, fire disturbance, and topography (north- and south-facing slopes) on soil thermal dynamics. Modeled soil temperatures agree well with measured values for both boreal forest and tundra ecosystems at the site level. Combustion of organic-soil horizons during wildfire alters the surface energy balance and increases the downward heat flux through the soil profile, resulting in the warming and thawing of near-surface permafrost. A projection of 21st century permafrost dynamics indicates that as the climate warms, active layer thickness will likely increase to more than 3 meters in the boreal forest site and deeper than one meter in the tundra site. Results from this coupled heat-water modeling approach represent faster thaw rates than previously simulated in other studies. We conclude that the discussed soil thermal model is able to well simulate the permafrost dynamics and could be used as a tool to analyze the influence of climate change and wildfire disturbance on permafrost thawing.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗