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USGS2018

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2016 annual report

This is the ninth annual report highlighting U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) science and decision-support activities conducted for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI). The activities address specific management needs identified by WLCI partner agencies. In fiscal year (FY) 2016, there were 26 active USGS WLCI science-based projects. Of these 26 projects, one project was new for FY2016, and three were completed by the end of the fiscal year (though final products were still in preparation or review). USGS WLCI projects were grouped under five categories: (1) Baseline Synthesis, (2) Long-Term Monitoring, (3) Effectiveness Monitoring, (4) Mechanistic Studies of Wildlife, and (5) Data and Information Management. Each of these topic areas is designed to address WLCI management needs: identifying key drivers of change, identifying the condition and distribution of key wildlife species and habitats and of species’ habitat requirements, development of an integrated inventory and monitoring strategy, use of emerging technologies and development and testing of innovative methods for maximizing the efficiency and efficacy of monitoring efforts, evaluating the effectiveness of habitat treatment projects, evaluating the responses of wildlife to development, and developing a data clearinghouse and information management framework to support and provide access to results of most USGS WLCI projects. In FY2016, we assisted with updating the WLCI Conservation Action Plan and associated databases as part of the Comprehensive Assessment, and we also assisted with the Bureau of Land Management 2015 WLCI annual report. By the end of FY2016, we completed or had nearly completed assessments of WLCI energy and mineral resources and had submitted a manuscript on modeled effects of oil and gas development on wildlife to a peer-reviewed journal. We also initiated a study on the effects of wind energy on wildlife in the WLCI region. A USGS circular on WLCI long-term monitoring was in review at the end of the fiscal year, and seven projects monitoring water and vegetation (including changes in sagebrush cover and patterns of sagebrush mortality) continued through the year. USGS scientists continued many projects in FY2016 that evaluate the effectiveness of habitat conservation actions (including sagebrush, cheatgrass, and aspen habitat treatments) and provide tools in support of mechanistic studies of wildlife. In FY2016, USGS scientists, along with university and State partners, continued work on five focal wildlife species/communities (pygmy rabbits [ Brachylagus idahoensis ], greater sage grouse , mule deer, sagebrush songbirds, and native fish). In FY2016, the USGS Information Management Team presented information to WLCI scientists on how USGS tools and resources can be used to fulfill the requirements of new USGS policies regarding data release, data management, and data visualization.

Wyoming↗

USGS2007

Identification of an optimal groundwater management strategy in a contaminated aquifer

A groundwater hydraulic management model is used to identify the optimal strategy for allocating limited fresh-water supplies and containing wastes in a hypothetical aquifer affected by brine contamination from surface disposal ponds. The present cost of pumping from a network of potential supply and interception wells is minimized over a five-year planning period, subject to a set of hydraulic, institutional, and legal constraints. Hydraulic constraints are formulated using linear systems theory to describe drawdown and velocity variables as linear functions of supply and interception well discharge decision variables. Successful validation of the optimal management strategy suggests that the model formulation can feasibly be applied to define management options for locally contaminated aquifer systems which are used to fulfill fresh-water demands.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2018

Computing under-ice discharge: A proof-of-concept using hydroacoustics and the Probability Concept

Under-ice discharge is estimated using open-water reference hydrographs; however, the ratings for ice-affected sites are generally qualified as poor. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with the Colorado Water Conservation Board, conducted a proof-of-concept to develop an alternative method for computing under-ice discharge using hydroacoustics and the Probability Concept. The study site was located south of Minturn, Colorado (CO), USA, and was selected because of (1) its proximity to the existing USGS streamgage 09064600 Eagle River near Minturn, CO, and (2) its ease-of-access to verify discharge using a variety of conventional methods. From late September 2014 to early March 2015, hydraulic conditions varied from open water to under ice. These temporal changes led to variations in water depth and velocity. Hydroacoustics (tethered and uplooking acoustic Doppler current profilers and acoustic Doppler velocimeters) were deployed to measure the vertical-velocity profile at a singularly important vertical of the channel-cross section. Because the velocity profile was non-standard and cannot be characterized using a Power Law or Log Law, velocity data were analyzed using the Probability Concept, which is a probabilistic formulation of the velocity distribution. The Probability Concept-derived discharge was compared to conventional methods including stage-discharge and index-velocity ratings and concurrent field measurements; each is complicated by the dynamics of ice formation, pressure influences on stage measurements, and variations in cross-sectional area due to ice formation. No particular discharge method was assigned as truth. Rather one statistical metric (Kolmogorov-Smirnov; KS), agreement plots, and concurrent measurements provided a measure of comparability between various methods. Regardless of the method employed, comparisons between each method revealed encouraging results depending on the flow conditions and the absence or presence of ice cover. For example, during lower discharges dominated by under-ice and transition (intermittent open-water and under-ice) conditions, the KS metric suggests there is not sufficient information to reject the null hypothesis and implies that the Probability Concept and index-velocity rating represent similar distributions. During high-flow, open-water conditions, the comparisons are less definitive; therefore, it is important that the appropriate analytical method and instrumentation be selected. Six conventional discharge measurements were collected concurrently with Probability Concept-derived discharges with percent differences (%) of −9.0%, −21%, −8.6%, 17.8%, 3.6%, and −2.3%. This proof-of-concept demonstrates that riverine discharges can be computed using the Probability Concept for a range of hydraulic extremes (variations in discharge, open-water and under-ice conditions) immediately after the siting phase is complete, which typically requires one day. Computing real-time discharges is particularly important at sites, where (1) new streamgages are planned, (2) river hydraulics are complex, and (3) shifts in the stage-discharge rating are needed to correct the streamflow record. Use of the Probability Concept does not preclude the need to maintain a stage-area relation. Both the Probability Concept and index-velocity rating offer water-resource managers and decision makers alternatives for computing real-time discharge for open-water and under-ice conditions.

Colorado↗

USGS1996

Establishment of a fish community in the Hayden-Rhodes and Salt-Gila aqueducts, Arizona

Fish populations were studied in the Central Arizona Projectˈs canal system during the first 4 years of aqueduct operation (1986–1989). Ichthyoplankton entering the canal from Lake Havasu averaged 1 larva/m 3 during April–June 1987 and 1988. Larval fish densities increased significantly in downstream samples, substantiating diver observations that fish were spawning in the canal system. Of the 16 fish species collected, 14 were assumed to have originated from Lake Havasu and 2 were introduced by anglers from their bait buckets. Initially, the fish community was dominated numerically by threadfin shad Dorosoma petenense (>88%), centrarchids (< 10%), cyprinids (<2%), and striped bass Morone saxatilis (<I%). However, as annual water diversions increased from 1.3 × 10 8 m 3 in 1986 to 9.4 × 10 8 m 3 in 1989, community composition shifted from clupeids to centrarchids (70%). Fish densities dropped from an estimated 1,260 fish/ha in 1986 to 17 fish/ha in 1989, and biomass dropped from 116 to 73 kg/ha. Declines were attributed to higher operational velocities, associated scour, deprivation, and predation. Although initial populations adjusted downward to planned operational conditions, the fish community continued to represent a potentially valuable, but as yet unused, resource.

Arizona↗

USGS2022

Water-use data in the United States: Challenges and future directions

In the United States, greater attention has been given to developing water supplies and quantifying available waters than determining who uses water, how much they withdraw and consume, and how and where water use occurs. As water supplies are stressed due to an increasingly variable climate, changing land-use, and growing water needs, greater consideration of the demand side of the water balance equation is essential. Data about the spatial and temporal aspects of water use for different purposes are now critical to long-term water supply planning and resource management. We detail the current state of water-use data, the major stakeholders involved in their collection and applications, and the challenges in obtaining high-quality nationally consistent data applicable to a range of scales and purposes. Opportunities to improve access, use, and sharing of water-use data are outlined. We cast a vision for a world-class national water-use data product that is accessible, timely, and spatially detailed. Our vision will leverage the strengths of existing local, state, and federal agencies to facilitate rapid and informed decision-making, modeling, and science for water resources. To inform future decision-making regarding water supplies and uses, we must coordinate efforts to substantially improve our capacity to collect, model, and disseminate water-use data.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS1998

A policy model to initiate environmental negotiations: Three hydropower workshops

How do I get started in natural resource negotiations? Natural resource managers often face difficult negotiations when they implement laws and policies regulating such resources as water, wildlife, wetlands, endangered species, and recreation. As a result of these negotiations, managers must establish rules, grant permits, or create management plans. The Legal‐Institutional Analysis Model (LIAM) was designed to assist managers in systematically analyzing the parties in natural resource negotiations and using that analysis to prepare for bargaining. The LIAM relies on the theory that organizations consistently employ behavioral roles. The model uses those roles to predict likely negotiation behavior. One practical use of the LIAM is when all parties to a negotiation conduct a workshop as a way to open the bargaining on a note of trust and mutual understanding. The process and results of three LIAM workshops designed to guide hydroelectric power licensing negotiations are presented. Our experience with these workshops led us to conclude that the LIAM can be an effective tool to begin a negotiation and that trust built through the workshops can help create a successful result.

Human Dimensions of Wildlife: An International Jou↗

USGS2004

Toward a scientifically rigorous basis for developing mapped ecological regions.

Despite the wide use of ecological regions in conservation and resource-management evaluations and assessments, a commonly accepted theoretical basis for ecological regionalization does not exist. This fact, along with the paucity of focus on ecological regionalization by professional associations, journals, and faculties, has inhibited the advancement of a broadly acceptable scientific basis for the development, use, and verification of ecological regions. The central contention of this article is that ecological regions should improve our understanding of geographic and ecological phenomena associated with biotic and abiotic processes occurring in individual regions and also of processes characteristic of interactions and dependencies among multiple regions. Research associated with any ecoregional framework should facilitate development of hypotheses about ecological phenomena and dominant landscape elements associated with these phenomena, how these phenomena are structured in space, and how they function in a hierarchy. Success in addressing the research recommendations outlined in this article cannot occur within an ad hoc, largely uncoordinated research environment. Successful implementation of this plan will require activities--coordination, funding, and education--that are both scientific and administrative in nature. Perhaps the most important element of an infrastructure to support the scientific work of ecoregionalization would be a national or international authority similar to the Water and Science Technology Board of the National Academy of Sciences.

Environmental Management↗

USGS2016

Potential effects of drought on carrying capacity for wintering waterfowl in the Central Valley of California

We used the bioenergetics model TRUEMET to evaluate potential effects of California's recent drought on food supplies for waterfowl wintering in the Central Valley under a range of habitat and waterfowl population scenarios. In nondrought years in the current Central Valley landscape, food supplies are projected to be adequate for waterfowl from fall through early spring (except late March) even if waterfowl populations reach North American Waterfowl Management Plan goals. However, in all drought scenarios that we evaluated, food supplies were projected to be exhausted for ducks by mid- to late winter and by late winter or early spring for geese. For ducks, these results were strongly related to projected declines in winter-flooded rice fields that provide 45% of all the food energy available to ducks in the Central Valley in nondrought water years. Delayed flooding of some managed wetlands may help alleviate food shortages by providing wetland food resources better timed with waterfowl migration and abundance patterns in the Central Valley, as well as reducing the amount of water needed to manage these habitats. However, future research is needed to evaluate the impacts of delayed flooding on waterfowl hunting, and whether California's existing water delivery system would make delayed flooding feasible. Securing adequate water supplies for waterfowl and other wetland-dependent birds is among the greatest challenges facing resource managers in coming years, especially in the increasingly arid western United States.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2019

Updating estimates of low-streamflow statistics to account for possible trends

Accurate estimators of streamflow statistics are critical to the design, planning, and management of water resources. Given increasing evidence of trends in low-streamflow, new approaches to estimating low-streamflow statistics are needed. Here we investigate simple approaches to select a recent subset of the low-flow record to update the commonly used statistic of 7 Q 10, the annual minimum 7-day streamflow exceeded in 9 out of 10 years on average. Informed by low-streamflow records at 174 US Geological Survey streamgages, Monte Carlo simulation experiments evaluate competing approaches. We find that a strategy which estimates 7 Q 10 using the most recent 30 years of record when a trend is detected, reduces error and bias in 7 Q 10 estimators compared to use of the full record. This simple rule-based approach has potential as the basis for a framework for updating frequency-based statistics in the context of possible trends.

Hydrologic Sciences Journal↗

USGS2015

Decision support system for optimally managing water resources to meet multiple objectives in the Savannah River Basin

Managers of large river basins face conflicting demands for water resources such as wildlife habitat, water supply, wastewater assimilative capacity, flood control, hydroelectricity, and recreation. The Savannah River Basin, for example, has experienced three major droughts since 2000 that resulted in record low water levels in its reservoirs, impacting dependent economies for years. The Savannah River estuary contains two municipal water intakes and the ecologically sensitive freshwater tidal marshes of the Savannah National Wildlife Refuge. The Port of Savannah is the fourth busiest in the United States, and modifications to the harbor to expand ship traffic since the 1970s have caused saltwater to migrate upstream, reducing the freshwater marsh’s acreage more than 50 percent. A planned deepening of the harbor includes flow-alteration features to minimize further migration of salinity, whose effectiveness will only be known after all construction is completed. One of the challenges of large basin management is the optimization of water use through ongoing regional economic development, droughts, and climate change. This paper describes a model of the Savannah River Basin designed to continuously optimize regulated flow to meet prioritized objectives set by resource managers and stakeholders. The model was developed from historical data using machine learning, making it more accurate and adaptable to changing conditions than traditional models. The model is coupled to an optimization routine that computes the daily flow needed to most efficiently meet the water-resource management objectives. The model and optimization routine are packaged in a decision support system that makes it easy for managers and stakeholders to use. Simulation results show that flow can be regulated to substantially reduce salinity intrusions in the Savannah National Wildlife Refuge, while conserving more water in the reservoirs. A method for using the model to assess the effectiveness of the flow-alteration features after the deepening also is demonstrated.

Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina↗

USGS2007

A simple daily soil-water balance model for estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of groundwater recharge in temperate humid areas

Quantifying the spatial and temporal distribution of natural groundwater recharge is usually a prerequisite for effective groundwater modeling and management. As flow models become increasingly utilized for management decisions, there is an increased need for simple, practical methods to delineate recharge zones and quantify recharge rates. Existing models for estimating recharge distributions are data intensive, require extensive parameterization, and take a significant investment of time in order to establish. The Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey (WGNHS) has developed a simple daily soil-water balance (SWB) model that uses readily available soil, land cover, topographic, and climatic data in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) to estimate the temporal and spatial distribution of groundwater recharge at the watershed scale for temperate humid areas. To demonstrate the methodology and the applicability and performance of the model, two case studies are presented: one for the forested Trout Lake watershed of north central Wisconsin, USA and the other for the urban-agricultural Pheasant Branch Creek watershed of south central Wisconsin, USA. Overall, the SWB model performs well and presents modelers and planners with a practical tool for providing recharge estimates for modeling and water resource planning purposes in humid areas. ?? Springer-Verlag 2007.

Hydrogeology Journal↗

USGS1985

Management of ground water and evolving hydrogeologic studies in New Jersey : a heavily urbanized and industrialized state in the northeastern United States

New Jersey is the most densely populated and one of the most industrialized states in the United States. An abundance of freshwater and proximity to major northeastern metropolitan centers has facilitated this development. Pumpage of freshwater from all aquifers in the State in 1980 was 730 million gallons per day (2.76 million cubic meters per day). Management and efficient development of the ground-water resources of the State are the responsibility of the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection. Laws have been enacted and updated by the State legislature to manage water allocation and to control the disposal of hazardous wastes. Present resource management is guided by the New Jersey Water-Supply Master Plan of 1981. Funding for management activities is partially derived from the sale of state-approved bonds. Effective planning and regional management require accurate and up-to-date hydrologic information and analyses. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Jersey Geological Survey, is conducting three intensive ground-water studies involving the collection and interpretation of hydrologic data to meet the urgent water-management needs of New Jersey. These studies are part of a long-term cooperative program and are funded through the Water-Supply Bond Act of 1981. They began in 1983 and are scheduled to be completed in 1988. The project areas are situated in the New Jersey part of the Atlantic Coastal Plain in and near Atlantic City, Camden, and South River. They range in size from 400 to 1,200 mil (1,040 to 3,120 km2). The studies are designed to define the geology, hydrology, and geochemistry of the local ground-water systems. The results of these studies will enable the State to address more effectively major problems in these areas such as declining water levels, overpumping, saltwater intrusion, and ground-water contamination resulting from the improper disposal of hazardous wastes. Specific objectives of these studies by the U.S. Geological Survey are to (1) develop an accurate and up-to-date hydrogeologic data base, (2) design and implement a data-collection program and establish a computerized information management system, (3) refine the conceptualization of the ground-water flow system, and (4) define the geochemistry of the aquifer system by conducting a water-quality appraisal. The objectives are accomplished by standard hydrogeologic methods. Information concerning hydrogeologic framework, ground-water levels, water use, hydraulic characteristics, and water quality in the study areas is compiled from all available sources. Additional data needed are collected through well inventories, surface geophysical surveys, water-quality samplings, water-level measurements, and a well-drilling program. Interpretation of the flow system is based on the use of standard analytical techniques and digital flow modeling. Calibrated flow models will provide ground-water managers with a mechanism to develop and test regional water-supply strategies. Definition of the geochemistry of the aquifer system is accomplished through a variety of methods which depend on the problems and available data in the particular study area. The approach includes statistical analysis of water-quality data, reaction-path modeling, and determination of the movement of chemical constituents using analytical and numerical modeling techniques. A combined staff of 25 to 30 professionals and technicians from the New Jersey District office of the U.S. Geological Survey is committed to the three studies. The staff has specialists in geohydrology, numerical modeling, geochemistry, geophysics, and computer science. The findings of these studies will be published in data reports, interpretive reports, instructional manuals and journal articles.

New Jersey↗

USGS2012

Relative value of managed wetlands and tidal marshlands for wintering northern pintails

Northern pintail Anas acuta (hereafter, pintail) populations have declined substantially throughout the western US since the 1970s, largely as a result of converting wetlands to cropland. Managed wetlands have been developed throughout the San Francisco Bay estuaries to provide wildlife habitat, particularly for waterfowl. Many of these areas were historically tidal baylands and plans are underway to remove dikes and restore tidal action. The relationship between tidal baylands and waterfowl populations is poorly understood. Our objective was to provide information on selection and avoidance of managed and tidal marshland by pintails. During 1991–1993 and 1998–2000, we radio-marked and relocated 330 female pintails (relocations, n =11,574) at Suisun Marsh, the largest brackish water estuary within San Francisco Bay, to estimate resource selection functions during the nonbreeding months (winter). Using a distance-based modeling approach, we calculated selection functions for different ecological communities (e.g., tidal baylands) and investigated variation explained by time of day (day or night hours) to account for differences in pintail behavior (i.e., foraging vs. roosting). We found strong evidence for selection of managed wetlands. Pintails also avoided tidal marshes and bays and channels. We did not detect differences in selection function between day and night hours for managed wetlands but the degree of avoidance of other habitats varied by time of day. We also found that areas subjected to tidal action did not influence the selection of immediately adjacent managed wetlands. If current management goals include providing habitat for wintering waterfowl populations, particularly pintail, then we recommend wildlife managers focus tidal restoration on areas that are not currently managed wetland and/or improve conditions in areas of managed wetlands to increase local carrying capacities

California↗

USGS2019

Assessment of site-specific agricultural Best Management Practices in the Upper East River watershed, Wisconsin, using a field-scale SWAT model

The Great Lakes “Priority Watershed” effort targeted the Upper East River watershed, a 116.5 km2 tributary watershed to Green Bay in Wisconsin, to reduce sediment and nutrients entering Green Bay. A Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was created to determine the effectiveness of Best Management Practices (BMPs) derived from the U.S. Department of Agriculture-Natural Resources Conservation Service National Conservation Planning (NCP) Database. The model was calibrated at the monthly timestep for flow, sediment, dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP), total phosphorus (TP), and total nitrogen (TN). Field- and watershed-scale sediment and nutrient reductions were calculated due to the implementation of 74 BMP combinations on dairy and cash grain rotations. Modeling results indicated that when multiple BMPs are placed on a field, especially those that included filter strips and grassed waterways, generally reduced sediment and nutrient loads more than a single BMP implementation. The most effective in-field practice at reducing DRP and TP on dairy fields was a combination of 5 different BMPs: cover crops, crop rotation, nutrient management plan, reduced tillage, and a filter strip. Conservation cover was the most effective practice at reducing sediment and nutrient yields. Sediment and nutrient loads decreased at the watershed scale as the quantity and coverage of BMPs increased. When all contracted NCP BMPs were simulated at the watershed scale, sediment loads were reduced 2%, while TP, DRP, TN and nitrate loads were reduced 20%, 9%, 24%, and 17%, respectively. Modeling scenarios indicated that as the number and area of BMPs were increased, sediment and nutrient load reductions were also increased.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2017

Understanding and finding solutions to the problem of sedimentation in the National Wildlife Refuge System

The National Wildlife Refuge System (Refuge System) is a collection of public lands maintained by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service for migratory birds and other wildlife. Wetlands on individual National Wildlife Refuges (Refuges) may be at risk of increased sedimentation because of land use and water management practices. Increased sedimentation can reduce wetland habitat quality by altering hydrologic function, degrading water quality, and inhibiting growth of vegetation and invertebrates. On Refuges negatively affected by increased sedimentation, managers have to address complex questions about how to best remediate and mitigate the negative effects. The best way to account for these complexities is often not clear. On other Refuges, managers may not know whether sedimentation is a problem. Decision makers in the Refuge System may need to allocate resources to studying which Refuges could be at risk. Such analyses would help them understand where to direct support for managing increased sedimentation. In this paper, we summarize a case study demonstrating the use of decision-analytic tools in the development of a sedimentation management plan for Agassiz National Wildlife Refuge, Minnesota. Using what we learned from that process, we surveyed other Refuges in U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Region 3 (an area encompassing the states of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, and Wisconsin) and Region 6 (an area encompassing the states of Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming) about whether they experience sediment-related impacts to management. Our results show that cases of management being negatively affected by increased sedimentation are not isolated. We suggest that the Refuge System conduct a comprehensive and systematic assessment of increased sedimentation among Refuges to understand the importance of sedimentation in context with other management problems that Refuges face. The results of such an assessment could guide how the Refuge System allocates resources to studying and managing widespread stressors.

Minnesota↗

USGS1986

Changes in growth and maturity of walleyes associated with stock rehabilitation in western Lake Erie, 1964-1983

The precipitous decline in abundance of walleyes (Stizostedion vitreum vitreum) in western Lake Erie during the 1960s caused major concerns for the future of this resource. Mercury contamination in walleyes in 1970 resulted in a moratorium on commercial fishing in United States and Canadian waters. The opportunity arose for resource agencies to develop a plan for rehabilitation of the walleye stocks, and quota management for walleyes was begun in 1976. After 8 years, the resource had recovered dramatically and the estimated standing stock in 1983 was more than three times that in 1976. In the mid-1970s, however, certain detrimental changes suggested that self-regulatory mechanisms were occurring. The growth rate declined gradually but rather consistently. Growth changes were most evident for young-of-the-year (YOY), yearlings, and 2-year-old fish, which usually constituted more than 80% of the standing stock in 1976-1983. Average lengths of YOY fish decreased by nearly 50 mm (from about 240 mm in 1961 to 190 mm in 1983). Average lengths and weights of yearling and older fish began to decline after 1975 and decreased markedly after 1980. Historically, growth of walleyes in western Lake Erie exceeded that reported for many walleye populations in other waters. Another sign of self-regulation was an increasing delay in the onset of maturity. Most (usually more than 90%) of the yearling males were sexually mature each fall before 1979, but this percentage decreased to only 32 by fall 1983. Usually 80% or more of the age-II females were mature each fall during the 1960s and early 1970s, but this percentage decreased rapidly to only 7 by fall 1983. Prey fish populations declined somewhat in the early 1980s, and their ability to sustain the high abundance of walleyes is a great concern to resource managers.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2015

Effects of climate and land cover on hydrology in the southeastern U.S.: Potential impacts on watershed planning

The hydrologic response to statistically downscaled general circulation model simulations of daily surface climate and land cover through 2099 was assessed for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin located in the southeastern United States. Projections of climate, urbanization, vegetation, and surface-depression storage capacity were used as inputs to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System to simulate projected impacts on hydrologic response. Surface runoff substantially increased when land cover change was applied. However, once the surface depression storage was added to mitigate the land cover change and increases of surface runoff (due to urbanization), the groundwater flow component then increased. For hydrologic studies that include projections of land cover change (urbanization in particular), any analysis of runoff beyond the change in total runoff should include effects of stormwater management practices as these features affect flow timing and magnitude and may be useful in mitigating land cover change impacts on streamflow. Potential changes in water availability and how biota may respond to changes in flow regime in response to climate and land cover change may prove challenging for managers attempting to balance the needs of future development and the environment. However, these models are still useful for assessing the relative impacts of climate and land cover change and for evaluating tradeoffs when managing to mitigate different stressors.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia↗

USGS2007

Climatic fluctuations and forecasting of streamflow in the lower Colorado River Basin

Water-resource managers need to forecast streamflow in the Lower Colorado River Basin to plan for water-resource projects and to operate reservoirs for water supply. Statistical forecasts of streamflow based on historical records of streamflow can be useful, but statistical assumptions, such as stationarity of flows, need to be evaluated. This study evaluated the relation between climatic fluctuations and stationarity and developed regression equations to forecast streamflow by using climatic fluctuations as explanatory variables. Climatic fluctuations were represented by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Historical streamflow within the 25- to 30-year positive or negative phases of AMO or PDO was generally stationary. Monotonic trends in annual mean flows were tested at the 21 sites evaluated in this study; 76% of the sites had no significant trends within phases of AMO and 86% of the sites had no significant trends within phases of PDO. As climatic phases shifted in signs, however, many sites had nonstationary flows; 67% of the sites had significant changes in annual mean flow as AMO shifted in signs. The regression equations developed in this study to forecast streamflow incorporate these shifts in climate and streamflow, thus that source of nonstationarity is accounted for. The R 2 value of regression equations that forecast individual years of annual flow for the central part of the study area ranged from 0.28 to 0.49 and averaged 0.39. AMO was the most significant variable, and a combination of indices from both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans explained much more variation in flows than only the Pacific Ocean indices. The average R2 value for equations with PDO and SOI was 0.15. ?? 2007 American Water Resources Association.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗