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A delayed action oscillator shared by biennial, interannual, and decadal signals in the Pacific Basin

Biennial, interannual, and decadal signals in the Pacific basin are observed to share patterns and evolution in covarying sea surface temperature (SST), 18??C isotherm depth (Z18), zonal surface wind (ZSW), and wind stress curl (WSC) anomalies from 1955 to 1999. Each signal has warm SST anomalies propagating slowly eastward along the equator, generating westerly ZSW anomalies in their wake. These westerly ZSW anomalies produce cyclonic WSC anomalies off the equator which pump baroclinic Rossby waves in the western/central tropical North Pacific Ocean. These Rossby waves propagate westward, taking ???6, ???12, and ???36 months to reach the western boundary near ???7??N, ???12??N, and ???18??N on biennial, interannual, and decadal period scales, respectively. There, they reflect as equatorial coupled waves, propagating slowly eastward in covarying SST, Z18, and ZSW anomalies, taking ???6, ???12, and ???24 months to reach the central/eastern equatorial ocean. These equatorial coupled waves produce a delayed-negative feedback to the warm SST anomalies there. The decrease in Rossby wave phase speed with latitude, the increase in meridional scale of equatorial SST anomalies with period scale, and the associated increase in latitude of Rossby wave forcing are consistent with the delayed action oscillator (DAO) model used to explain El Nin??o. However, this is not true of the western-boundary reflection of Rossby waves into slow equatorial coupled waves. This requires modification of the extant DAO model. We construct a modified DAO model, demonstrating how the various mechanisms and the size and sources of their delays yield the resulting frequency of each signal.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans

Surface methane concentrations along the mid-Atlantic bight driven by aerobic subsurface production rather than seafloor gas seeps

Relatively minor amounts of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, are currently emitted from the oceans to the atmosphere, but such methane emissions have been hypothesized to increase as oceans warm. Here, we investigate the source, distribution, and fate of methane released from the upper continental slope of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Bight, where hundreds of gas seeps have been discovered between the shelf-break and ~1600 m water depth. Using physical, chemical, and isotopic analyses, we identify two main sources of methane in the water column: seafloor gas seeps and in situ aerobic methanogenesis which primarily occurs at 100 – 200 m depth in the water column. Stable isotopic analyses reveal that water samples collected at all depths were significantly impacted by aerobic methane oxidation, the dominant methane sink in this region, with more than 50% of the methane being oxidized, on average. Due to methane oxidation in the deeper water column, below 200 m depth, surface concentrations of methane are influenced more by methane sources found near the surface (0 – 10 m depth) and in the subsurface (10 - 200 m depth), rather than seafloor emissions at greater depths.

Atlantic margin

Hydrodynamics of a tidally‐forced coral reef atoll

The hydrodynamics of a tidally forced semi‐enclosed coral reef atoll (North Scott) at the edge of the continental shelf of northwestern Australia were investigated by combining field observations and numerical modeling. The observations revealed that the spring tidal range outside the atoll reaches 4 m, and as the water level drops below mean sea level, the reef rim surrounding the shallow (~10–15 m) lagoon becomes exposed. During this time, the lagoon can only exchange with the open ocean through two narrow channels, resulting in highly asymmetric water levels and velocities that were most pronounced during spring tide. On average, the ebb tide duration was ~2 hr longer than the flood, with rapid flood velocities in the channel reaching 2 m/s. We applied an unstructured grid model Delft3D‐Flexible Mesh to simulate the atoll hydrodynamics and were able to replicate the asymmetric water levels and complex velocities in the lagoon. The results revealed that at higher tidal stages, a dominant momentum balance exists between the pressure gradient (established by the propagation of the tide on the shelf) and the local flow acceleration of water throughout the interior of the atoll. At lower tidal stages, which coincided with a reversal of the offshore tidal pressure gradient, the lagoon became isolated from offshore dynamics and all momentum terms were negligible. This resulted in a tidally averaged residual westward flow within the lagoon that drove an asymmetric flushing pattern within the atoll, which we propose would be a common flushing mechanism within other tide‐dominated atolls worldwide.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans

Numerical modeling of an estuary: A comprehensive skill assessment

Numerical simulations of the Hudson River estuary using a terrain-following, three-dimensional model (Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)) are compared with an extensive set of time series and spatially resolved measurements over a 43 day period with large variations in tidal forcing and river discharge. The model is particularly effective at reproducing the observed temporal variations in both the salinity and current structure, including tidal, spring neap, and river discharge-induced variability. Large observed variations in stratification between neap and spring tides are captured qualitatively and quantitatively by the model. The observed structure and variations of the longitudinal salinity gradient are also well reproduced. The most notable discrepancy between the model and the data is in the vertical salinity structure. While the surface-to-bottom salinity difference is well reproduced, the stratification in the model tends to extend all the way to the water surface, whereas the observations indicate a distinct pycnocline and a surface mixed layer. Because the southern boundary coindition is located near the mouth the estuary, the salinity within the domain is particularly sensitive to the specification of salinity at the boundary. A boundary condition for the horizontal salinity gradient, based on the local value of salinity, is developed to incorporate physical processes beyond the open boundary not resolved by the model. Model results are sensitive to the specification of the bottom roughness length and vertical stability functions, insofar as they influence the intensity of vertical mixing. The results only varied slightly between different turbulence closure methods of k-??, k-??, and k-kl. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

New York

Wave-current interaction in Willapa Bay

This paper describes the importance of wave-current interaction in an inlet-estuary system. The three-dimensional, fully coupled, Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system was applied in Willapa Bay (Washington State) from 22 to 29 October 1998 that included a large storm event. To represent the interaction between waves and currents, the vortex-force method was used. Model results were compared with water elevations, currents, and wave measurements obtained by the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers. In general, a good agreement between field data and computed results was achieved, although some discrepancies were also observed in regard to wave peak directions in the most upstream station. Several numerical experiments that considered different forcing terms were run in order to identify the effects of each wind, tide, and wave-current interaction process. Comparison of the horizontal momentum balances results identified that wave-breaking-induced acceleration is one of the leading terms in the inlet area. The enhancement of the apparent bed roughness caused by waves also affected the values and distribution of the bottom shear stress. The pressure gradient showed significant changes with respect to the pure tidal case. During storm conditions the momentum balance in the inlet shares the characteristics of tidal-dominated and wave-dominated surf zone environments. The changes in the momentum balance caused by waves were manifested both in water level and current variations. The most relevant effect on hydrodynamics was a wave-induced setup in the inner part of the estuary.

Washington

Modeling tidal exchange and dispersion in Boston Harbor

Tidal dispersion and the horizontal exchange of water between Boston Harbor and the surrounding ocean are examined with a high-resolution (200 m) depth-averaged numerical model. The strongly varying bathymetry and coastline geometry of the harbor generate complex spatial patterns in the modeled tidal currents which are verified by shipboard acoustic Doppler surveys. Lagrangian exchange experiments demonstrate that tidal currents rapidly exchange and mix material near the inlets of the harbor due to asymmetry in the ebb/flood response. This tidal mixing zone extends roughly a tidal excursion from the inlets and plays an important role in the overall flushing of the harbor. Because the tides can only efficiently mix material in this limited region, however, harbor flushing must be considered a two step process: rapid exchange in the tidal mixing zone, followed by flushing of the tidal mixing zone by nontidal residual currents. Estimates of embayment flushing based on tidal calculations alone therefore can significantly overestimate the flushing time that would be expected under typical environmental conditions. Particle-release simulations from point sources also demonstrate that while the tides efficiently exchange material in the vicinity of the inlets, the exact nature of dispersion from point sources is extremely sensitive to the timing and location of the release, and the distribution of particles is streaky and patchlike. This suggests that high-resolution modeling of dispersion from point sources in these regions must be performed explicitly and cannot be parameterized as a plume with Gaussian-spreading in a larger scale flow field.

Massachusetts

Suspended particulate layers and internal waves over the southern Monterey Bay continental shelf: an important control on shelf mud belts?

Physical and optical measurements taken over the mud belt on the southern continental shelf of Monterey Bay, California documented the frequent occurrence of suspended particulate matter features, the majority of which were detached from the seafloor, centered 9–33 m above the bed. In fall 2011, an automated profiling mooring and fixed instrumentation, including a thermistor chain and upward-looking acoustic Doppler current profiler, were deployed at 70 m depth for 5 weeks, and from 12 to 16 October a long-range autonomous underwater vehicle performed across-shelf transects. Individual SPM events were uncorrelated with local bed shear stress caused by surface waves and bottom currents. Nearly half of all observed SPM layers occurred during 1 week of the study, 9–16 October 2011, and were advected past the fixed profiling mooring by the onshore phase of semidiurnal internal tide bottom currents. At the start of the 9–16 October period, we observed intense near-bed vertical velocities capable of lifting particulates into the middle of the water column. This “updraft” event appears to have been associated with nonlinear adjustment of high-amplitude internal tides over the mid and outer shelf. These findings suggest that nonlinear internal tidal motions can erode material over the outer shelf and that, once suspended, this SPM can then be transported shoreward to the middle and shallow sections of the mud belt. This represents a fundamental broadening of our understanding of how shelf mud belts may be built up and sustained.

California

Interactions between waves, sediment, and turbulence on a shallow estuarine mudflat

Measurements were collected on a shallow estuarine mudflat in northern San Francisco Bay to examine the physical processes controlling waves, turbulence, sediment resuspension, and their interactions. Tides alone forced weak to moderate currents of 10–30 cm s -1 in depths of 0–3 m, and maintained a background suspension of 30–50 mg L21 of fine sediment. In the presence of wind waves, bottom orbital velocities spanned 20–30 cm s -1 , suspended-sediment concentrations (SSC) at 15 and 30 cm above the bed (cmab) increased by 1–2 orders of magnitude, and vertical gradients in SSC were strong enough to produce turbulence-limiting stratification, with gradient Richardson numbers exceeding 0.25. Simultaneously, turbulent stresses (decomposed from wave motions) increased by an order of magnitude. The apparent contradiction of energetic turbulence in the presence of strong stratification was reconciled by considering the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budget: in general, dissipation and buoyancy flux were balanced by local shear production, and each of these terms increased during wave events. The classic wave-current boundary layer model represented the observations qualitatively, but not quantitatively since the velocity profile could not be approximated as logarithmic. Rather, the mean shear was elevated by the Stokes drift return flow and wind-generated surface stress, which diffused sediment upward and limited stratification. Our findings highlight a pathway for waves to supply energy to both the production and destruction of turbulence, and demonstrate that in such shallow depths, TKE and SSC can be elevated over more of the water column than predicted by traditional models.

California

Forcing and variability of nonstationary rip currents

Surface wave transformation and the resulting nearshore circulation along a section of coast with strong alongshore bathymetric gradients outside the surf zone are modeled for a consecutive 4 week time period. The modeled hydrodynamics are compared to in situ measurements of waves and currents collected during the Nearshore Canyon Experiment and indicate that for the entire range of observed conditions, the model performance is similar to other studies along this stretch of coast. Strong alongshore wave height gradients generate rip currents that are observed by remote sensing data and predicted qualitatively well by the numerical model. Previous studies at this site have used idealized scenarios to link the rip current locations to undulations in the offshore bathymetry but do not explain the dichotomy between permanent offshore bathymetric features and intermittent rip current development. Model results from the month‐long simulation are used to track the formation and location of rip currents using hourly statistics, and results show that the direction of the incoming wave energy strongly controls whether rip currents form. In particular, most of the offshore wave spectra were bimodal and we find that the ratio of energy contained in each mode dictates rip current development, and the alongshore rip current position is controlled by the incident wave period. Additionally, model simulations performed with and without updating the nearshore morphology yield no significant change in the accuracy of the predicted surf zone hydrodyanmics indicating that the large‐scale offshore features (e.g., submarine canyon) predominately control the nearshore wave‐circulation system.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans

Observations of wave transformation over a fringing coral reef and the importance of low-frequency waves and offshore water levels to runup, overwash, and coastal flooding

Many low-lying tropical islands are susceptible to sea level rise and often subjected to overwash and flooding during large wave events. To quantify wave dynamics and wave-driven water levels on fringing coral reefs, a 5 month deployment of wave gauges and a current meter was conducted across two shore-normal transects on Roi-Namur Island in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. These observations captured two large wave events that had waves with maximum heights greater than 6 m with peak periods of 16 s over the fore reef. The larger event coincided with a peak spring tide, leading to energetic, highly skewed infragravity (0.04–0.004 Hz) and very low frequency (0.004–0.001 Hz) waves at the shoreline, which reached heights of 1.0 and 0.7 m, respectively. Water surface elevations, combined with wave runup, reached 3.7 m above the reef bed at the innermost reef flat adjacent to the toe of the beach, resulting in flooding of inland areas. This overwash occurred during a 3 h time window that coincided with high tide and maximum low-frequency reef flat wave heights. The relatively low-relief characteristics of this narrow reef flat may further drive shoreline amplification of low-frequency waves due to resonance modes. These results (1) demonstrate how the coupling of high offshore water levels with low-frequency reef flat wave energetics can lead to large impacts along fringing reef-lined shorelines, such as island overwash, and (2) lend support to the hypothesis that predicted higher sea levels will lead to more frequent occurrences of these extreme events, negatively impacting coastal resources and infrastructure.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans

Probabilistic assessment of erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico

We assess erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico by identifying interdependencies among oceanographic drivers and probabilistically modeling the resulting potential for coastal change. Wave and water level observations are used to determine relationships between six hydrodynamic parameters that influence total water level and therefore erosion and flooding, through consideration of a wide range of univariate distribution functions and multivariate elliptical copulas. Using these relationships, we explore how different our interpretation of the present-day erosion/flooding risk could be if we had seen more or fewer extreme realizations of individual and combinations of parameters in the past by simulating 10,000 physically and statistically consistent sea-storm time series. We find that seasonal total water levels associated with the 100 year return period could be up to 3 m higher in summer and 0.6 m higher in winter relative to our best estimate based on the observational records. Impact hours of collision and overwash—where total water levels exceed the dune toe or dune crest elevations—could be on average 70% (collision) and 100% (overwash) larger than inferred from the observations. Our model accounts for non-stationarity in a straightforward, non-parametric way that can be applied (with little adjustments) to many other coastlines. The probabilistic model presented here, which accounts for observational uncertainty, can be applied to other coastlines where short record lengths limit the ability to identify the full range of possible wave and water level conditions that coastal mangers and planners must consider to develop sustainable management strategies.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans

Sediment transport in the presence of large reef bottom roughness

The presence of large bottom roughness, such as that formed by benthic organisms on coral reef flats, has important implications for the size, concentration, and transport of suspended sediment in coastal environments. A 3 week field study was conducted in approximately 1.5 m water depth on the reef flat at Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia, to quantify the cross-reef hydrodynamics and suspended sediment dynamics over the large bottom roughness (∼20–40 cm) at the site. A logarithmic mean current profile consistently developed above the height of the roughness; however, the flow was substantially reduced below the height of the roughness (canopy region). Shear velocities inferred from the logarithmic profile and Reynolds stresses measured at the top of the roughness, which are traditionally used in predictive sediment transport formulations, were similar but much larger than that required to suspend the relatively coarse sediment present at the bed. Importantly, these stresses did not represent the stresses imparted on the sediment measured in suspension and are therefore not relevant to the description of suspended sediment transport in systems with large bottom roughness. Estimates of the bed shear stresses that accounted for the reduced near-bed flow in the presence of large roughness vastly improved the relationship between the predicted and observed grain sizes that were in suspension. Thus, the impact of roughness, not only on the overlying flow but also on bed stresses, must be accounted for to accurately estimate suspended sediment transport in regions with large bottom roughness, a common feature of many shallow coastal ecosystems.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans

Identification and classification of very low frequency waves on a coral reef flat

Very low frequency (VLF, 0.001–0.005 Hz) waves are important drivers of flooding of low-lying coral reef-islands. In particular, VLF wave resonance is known to drive large wave runup and subsequent overwash. Using a 5 month data set of water levels and waves collected along a cross-reef transect on Roi-Namur Island in the Republic of the Marshall Islands, the observed VLF motions were categorized into four different classes: (1) resonant, (2) (nonresonant) standing, (3) progressive-growing, and (4) progressive-dissipative waves. Each VLF class is set by the reef flat water depth and, in the case of resonance, the incident-band offshore wave period. Using an improved method to identify VLF wave resonance, we find that VLF wave resonance caused prolonged (∼0.5–6.0 h), large-amplitude water surface oscillations at the inner reef flat ranging in wave height from 0.14 to 0.83 m. It was induced by relatively long-period, grouped, incident-band waves, and occurred under both storm and nonstorm conditions. Moreover, observed resonant VLF waves had nonlinear, bore-like wave shapes, which likely have a larger impact on the shoreline than regular, sinusoidal waveforms. As an alternative technique to the commonly used Fast Fourier Transformation, we propose the Hilbert-Huang Transformation that is more computationally expensive but can capture the wave shape more accurately. This research demonstrates that understanding VLF waves on reef flats is important for evaluating coastal flooding hazards.

Roi-Namur Island

Observations and a linear model of water level in an interconnected inlet-bay system

A system of barrier islands and back-barrier bays occurs along southern Long Island, New York, and in many coastal areas worldwide. Characterizing the bay physical response to water level fluctuations is needed to understand flooding during extreme events and evaluate their relation to geomorphological changes. Offshore sea level is one of the main drivers of water level fluctuations in semienclosed back-barrier bays. We analyzed observed water levels (October 2007 to November 2015) and developed analytical models to better understand bay water level along southern Long Island. An increase (∼0.02 m change in 0.17 m amplitude) in the dominant M 2 tidal amplitude (containing the largest fraction of the variability) was observed in Great South Bay during mid-2014. The observed changes in both tidal amplitude and bay water level transfer from offshore were related to the dredging of nearby inlets and possibly the changing size of a breach across Fire Island caused by Hurricane Sandy (after December 2012). The bay response was independent of the magnitude of the fluctuations (e.g., storms) at a specific frequency. An analytical model that incorporates bay and inlet dimensions reproduced the observed transfer function in Great South Bay and surrounding areas. The model predicts the transfer function in Moriches and Shinnecock bays where long-term observations were not available. The model is a simplified tool to investigate changes in bay water level and enables the evaluation of future conditions and alternative geomorphological settings.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans

Persistent shoreline shape induced from offshore geologic framework: Effects of shoreface connected ridges

Mechanisms relating offshore geologic framework to shoreline evolution are determined through geologic investigations, oceanographic deployments, and numerical modeling. Analysis of shoreline positions from the past 50 years along Fire Island, New York, a 50 km long barrier island, demonstrates a persistent undulating shape along the western half of the island. The shelf offshore of these persistent undulations is characterized with shoreface-connected sand ridges (SFCR) of a similar alongshore length scale, leading to a hypothesis that the ridges control the shoreline shape through the modification of flow. To evaluate this, a hydrodynamic model was configured to start with the US East Coast and scale down to resolve the Fire Island nearshore. The model was validated using observations along western Fire Island and buoy data, and used to compute waves, currents and sediment fluxes. To isolate the influence of the SFCR on the generation of the persistent shoreline shape, simulations were performed with a linearized nearshore bathymetry to remove alongshore transport gradients associated with shoreline shape. The model accurately predicts the scale and variation of the alongshore transport that would generate the persistent shoreline undulations. In one location, however, the ridge crest connects to the nearshore and leads to an offshore-directed transport that produces a difference in the shoreline shape. This qualitatively supports the hypothesized effect of cross-shore fluxes on coastal evolution. Alongshore flows in the nearshore during a representative storm are driven by wave breaking, vortex force, advection and pressure gradient, all of which are affected by the SFCR.

New York

A Bayesian-based system to assess wave-driven flooding hazards on coral reef-lined coasts

Many low-elevation, coral reef-lined, tropical coasts are vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea level rise, and wave-induced flooding. The considerable morphological diversity of these coasts and the variability of the hydrodynamic forcing that they are exposed to make predicting wave-induced flooding a challenge. A process-based wave-resolving hydrodynamic model (XBeach Non-Hydrostatic, “XBNH”) was used to create a large synthetic database for use in a “Bayesian Estimator for Wave Attack in Reef Environments” (BEWARE), relating incident hydrodynamics and coral reef geomorphology to coastal flooding hazards on reef-lined coasts. Building on previous work, BEWARE improves system understanding of reef hydrodynamics by examining the intrinsic reef and extrinsic forcing factors controlling runup and flooding on reef-lined coasts. The Bayesian estimator has high predictive skill for the XBNH model outputs that are flooding indicators, and was validated for a number of available field cases. It was found that, in order to accurately predict flooding hazards, water depth over the reef flat, incident wave conditions, and reef flat width are the most essential factors, whereas other factors such as beach slope and bed friction due to the presence or absence of corals are less important. BEWARE is a potentially powerful tool for use in early warning systems or risk assessment studies, and can be used to make projections about how wave-induced flooding on coral reef-lined coasts may change due to climate change.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans

Direct measurements of mean Reynolds stress and ripple roughness in the presence of energetic forcing by surface waves

Direct covariance observations of the mean flow Reynolds stress and sonar images of the seafloor collected on a wave‐exposed inner continental shelf demonstrate that the drag exerted by the seabed on the overlying flow is consistent with boundary layer models for wave‐current interaction, provided that the orientation and anisotropy of the bed roughness are appropriately quantified. Large spatial and temporal variations in drag result from nonequilibrium ripple dynamics, ripple anisotropy, and the orientation of the ripples relative to the current. At a location in coarse sand characterized by large two‐dimensional orbital ripples, the observed drag shows a strong dependence on the relative orientation of the mean current to the ripple crests. At a contrasting location in fine sand, where more isotropic sub‐orbital ripples are observed, the sensitivity of the current to the orientation of the ripples is reduced. Further, at the coarse site under conditions when the currents are parallel to the ripple crests and the wave orbital diameter is smaller than the wavelength of the relic orbital ripples, the flow becomes hydraulically smooth. This transition is not observed at the fine site, where the observed wave orbital diameter is always greater than the wavelength of the observed sub‐orbital ripples. Paradoxically, the dominant along‐shelf flows often experience lower drag at the coarse site than at the fine site, despite the larger ripples, highlighting the complex dynamics controlling drag in wave‐exposed environments with heterogeneous roughness.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans

cBathy: A robust algorithm for estimating nearshore bathymetry

A three-part algorithm is described and tested to provide robust bathymetry maps based solely on long time series observations of surface wave motions. The first phase consists of frequency-dependent characterization of the wave field in which dominant frequencies are estimated by Fourier transform while corresponding wave numbers are derived from spatial gradients in cross-spectral phase over analysis tiles that can be small, allowing high-spatial resolution. Coherent spatial structures at each frequency are extracted by frequency-dependent empirical orthogonal function (EOF). In phase two, depths are found that best fit weighted sets of frequency-wave number pairs. These are subsequently smoothed in time in phase 3 using a Kalman filter that fills gaps in coverage and objectively averages new estimates of variable quality with prior estimates. Objective confidence intervals are returned. Tests at Duck, NC, using 16 surveys collected over 2 years showed a bias and root-mean-square (RMS) error of 0.19 and 0.51 m, respectively but were largest near the offshore limits of analysis (roughly 500 m from the camera) and near the steep shoreline where analysis tiles mix information from waves, swash and static dry sand. Performance was excellent for small waves but degraded somewhat with increasing wave height. Sand bars and their small-scale alongshore variability were well resolved. A single ground truth survey from a dissipative, low-sloping beach (Agate Beach, OR) showed similar errors over a region that extended several kilometers from the camera and reached depths of 14 m. Vector wave number estimates can also be incorporated into data assimilation models of nearshore dynamics.

North Carolina