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At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2016

How will predicted land-use change affect waterfowl spring stopover ecology? Inferences from an individual-based model

Habitat loss, habitat fragmentation, overexploitation and climate change pose familiar and new challenges to conserving natural populations throughout the world. One approach conservation planners may use to evaluate the effects of these challenges on wildlife populations is scenario planning. We developed an individual-based model to evaluate the effects of future land use and land cover changes on spring-migrating dabbling ducks in North America. We assessed the effects of three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) on dabbling duck stopover duration, movement distances and mortality. We specifically focused on migration stopover duration because previous research has demonstrated that individuals arriving earlier on the nesting grounds exhibit increased reproductive fitness. Compared to present conditions, all three scenarios increased stopover duration and movement distances of agent ducks. Although all three scenarios presented migrating ducks with increased amounts of wetland habitat, scenarios also contained substantially less cropland, which decreased overall carrying capacity of the study area. Synthesis and applications . Land-use change may increase waterfowl spring migration stopover duration in the midcontinent region of North America due to reduced landscape energetic carrying capacity. Climate change will alter spatial patterns of crop distributions with corn and rice production areas shifting to different regions. Thus, conservation planners will have to address population-level energetic implications of shifting agricultural food resources and increased uncertainty in yearly precipitation patterns within the next 50 years.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2016

Overwintering strategies of migratory birds: a novel approach for estimating seasonal movement patterns of residents and transients

Our understanding of movement patterns in wildlife populations has played an important role in current ecological knowledge and can inform landscape conservation decisions. Direct measures of movement can be obtained using marked individuals, but this requires tracking individuals across a landscape or multiple sites. We demonstrate how movements can be estimated indirectly using single-site, capture–mark–recapture (CMR) data with a multi-state open robust design with state uncertainty model (MSORD-SU). We treat residence and transience as two phenotypic states of overwintering migrants and use time- and state-dependent probabilities of site entry and persistence as indirect measures of movement. We applied the MSORD-SU to data on eight species of overwintering Neotropical birds collected in 14 countries between 2002 and 2011. In addition to entry and persistence probabilities, we estimated the proportions of residents at a study site and mean residence times. We identified overwintering movement patterns and residence times that contrasted with prior categorizations of territoriality. Most species showed an evidence of residents entering sites at multiple time intervals, with transients tending to enter between peak resident movement times. Persistence and the proportion of residents varied by latitude, but were not always positively correlated for a given species. Synthesis and applications . Our results suggest that migratory songbirds commonly move among habitats during the overwintering period. Substantial proportions of populations appear to be comprised of transient individuals, and residents tend to persist at specific sites for relatively short periods of time. This information on persistence and movement patterns should be explored for specific habitats to guide landscape management on the wintering grounds, such as determining which habitats are conserved or restored as part of certification programmes of tropical agroforestry crops. We suggest that research and conservation efforts on Neotropical migrant songbirds focus on identifying landscape configurations and regional habitat networks that support these diverse overwintering strategies to secure full life cycle conservation.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2007

Concerns regarding a call for pluralism of information theory and hypothesis testing

1. Stephens et al. (2005) argue for 'pluralism' in statistical analysis, combining null hypothesis testing and information-theoretic (I-T) methods. We show that I-T methods are more informative even in single variable problems and we provide an ecological example. 2. I-T methods allow inferences to be made from multiple models simultaneously. We believe multimodel inference is the future of data analysis, which cannot be achieved with null hypothesis-testing approaches. 3. We argue for a stronger emphasis on critical thinking in science in general and less reliance on exploratory data analysis and data dredging. Deriving alternative hypotheses is central to science; deriving a single interesting science hypothesis and then comparing it to a default null hypothesis (e.g. 'no difference') is not an efficient strategy for gaining knowledge. We think this single-hypothesis strategy has been relied upon too often in the past. 4. We clarify misconceptions presented by Stephens et al. (2005) . 5. We think inference should be made about models, directly linked to scientific hypotheses, and their parameters conditioned on data, Prob(Hj| data). I-T methods provide a basis for this inference. Null hypothesis testing merely provides a probability statement about the data conditioned on a null model, Prob(data |H0). 6. Synthesis and applications . I-T methods provide a more informative approach to inference. I-T methods provide a direct measure of evidence for or against hypotheses and a means to consider simultaneously multiple hypotheses as a basis for rigorous inference. Progress in our science can be accelerated if modern methods can be used intelligently; this includes various I-T and Bayesian methods.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2020

Low stand density moderates growth declines during hot droughts in semi-arid forests

Increasing heat and aridity in coming decades is expected to negatively impact tree growth and threaten forest sustainability in dry areas. Maintaining low stand density has the potential to mitigate the negative effects of increasingly severe droughts by minimizing competitive intensity. However, the direct impact of stand density on the growing environment (i.e. soil moisture), and the specific drought metrics that best quantify that environment, are not well explored for any forest ecosystem. We examined the relationship of varying stand density (i.e. basal area) on soil moisture and stand‐level growth in a long‐term (multi‐decadal), ponderosa pine Pinus ponderosa , forest management experiment. We accounted for the influence of stand‐level density on moisture availability by measuring and modelling soil moisture using an ecosystem water balance model. To quantify the growing environment, we developed metrics of ecological drought that integrate the influence of moisture availability in the soil with moisture demand by the atmosphere. We paired these results with stand‐level dendrochronological data, avoiding the potential bias introduced from individual tree‐based assessments, and used critical climate period analysis to identify the timing and duration of these drought metrics that most relate to forest growth. We found that stand‐level growth is highly responsive to the combination of high temperature and low soil moisture. Growth in all stands was negatively related to temperature and positively related to moisture availability, although the sensitivity of growth to those conditions varied among stand density treatments. Growth enhancement during cool years is greatest in low density stands. In addition, low density stands displayed substantially higher long‐term average growth than higher density stands and maintained higher growth even when temperatures were high. Growth in low density stands also increased more than higher density stands in response to greater long‐term moisture availability. Synthesis and applications . We quantified the influence of stand‐level density on the environmental conditions that determine tree growth and related forest growth to patterns of moisture supply and demand. Our drought metrics, and analytical approach for quantifying drought impacts on forest growth, are a novel approach for assessing forest vulnerability to drought under climate change. These results provide new perspective on the potential for density management to mitigate drought stress and maintain forest stand growth during and after drought events in water‐limited forests.

Arizona↗
USGS2021

Integrating socioecological suitability with human-wildlife conflict risk: Case study for translocation of a large ungulate

Translocations are essential for re-establishing wildlife populations. As they sometimes fail, it is critical to assess factors that influence their success pre-translocation. Socioecological suitability models (SESMs) integrate social acceptance and ecological suitability to enable identification of areas where wildlife populations will expand, which makes it likely that SESMs will also be useful for predicting translocation success. To inform site selection for potential elk Cervus canadensis reintroduction to north-eastern Minnesota, United States, we developed broadscale maps of social acceptance from surveys of local residents and landowners, animal use equivalence (AUE) from forage measured in the field and empirical conflict risk from geospatial data. Resulting SESMs integrated social acceptance favourability scores, AUE and conflict risk, and weighted SESMs showed the relative influences of acceptance and conflict. Social acceptance was positive for local residents and landowners (mean ≥ 5.4; scale of 1–7). AUE (scaled to an elk home range) ranged between 1 and 9 elk/16 km 2 during winter, and from 14 to 83 elk/16 km 2 during summer. Human–elk conflict risk was low (mean ≤ 0.10; scaled 0–1), increasing from north to south. Geographical distributions differed for social acceptance, AUE and conflict risk, and weighted SESMs revealed unsuitable areas that were otherwise obscured. Synthesis and applications . Integrating human–wildlife conflict risk into SESMs shows where social acceptance of translocated species is likely to erode, even where viewed favourably pre-translocation, to inform translocation planning by highlighting interactions between key factors. Such integrated models supplement existing reintroduction biology frameworks by supporting decision-making and knowledge development. In north-eastern Minnesota, natural resource managers who are considering elk reintroductions are using SESMs reported here to identify where human–elk conflict is unlikely to result in an isolated elk population and where addressing concerns for area residents about conflict risk is essential.

Minnesota↗
USGS2025

Short-term ecological effects of solar energy development depend on plant community, soil type, and disturbance intensity

Solar energy is rapidly growing to decarbonize the electrical grid. Maintaining ecosystem function with solar energy generation can be promoted through construction methods that minimize negative impacts on soils and vegetation. However, the disturbance created by less-impactful construction methods at utility-scale solar energy (USSE) facilities and the ecosystem responses remain relatively unknown. We monitored soils and vegetation before and after the USSE build-out to assess the short-term impacts of construction on soils and vegetation at the Gemini Solar Project in the Mojave Desert. The facility was constructed with methods intended to be less impactful than traditional techniques. Our goal was to answer three questions: (1) What are the short-term effects of construction on soils and vegetation? (2) Do construction effects vary by the initial plant community and soil type? and (3) Does disturbance intensity from construction affect soil and vegetation response? We found strong evidence that the construction of the Gemini facility increased bare soil and soil compaction, and decreased dark biocrust cover and soil stability in the short term. For every 1% increase in disturbance intensity, we found a 0.23% increase in bare soil cover and a 0.10% decrease in dark biocrust cover. Plant responses varied more than soil responses and depended on the initial plant community and soil type, with decreases in plant canopy cover highest in sandy soils dominated by creosote bush ( Larrea tridentata ) and white bursage ( Ambrosia dumosa ) shrubs. Synthesis and applications : Many impacts of USSE facility construction depend on the underlying vegetation and soils and the level of disturbance intensity. The use of less-impactful construction methods, including a combination of overland travel and drive-and-crush examined in our study, can ameliorate negative effects relative to traditional construction practices and provide a pathway to maintain ecosystem function.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2026

Disease-associated mortality drives reduction in Yukon River Chinook salmon escapement: A novel method for quantifying the negative impacts of ‘misfit’ parasites to improve fisheries management

Parasites can suppress host populations through parasite-induced mortality. However, the negative effects of parasites are difficult to measure in wild populations and we have few tools for quantifying the magnitude of parasite-induced mortality. This is especially true for many ‘misfit’ parasites that do not fit into standard classifications (e.g. fungal-like parasites and myxozoans). As such, we are limited in our ability to include the effects of parasites in fish and wildlife management strategies. Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) are a species of immense cultural and ecological significance but populations are declining across much of their range. In the Yukon River, Alaska, USA, episodic outbreaks of the ichthyosporean parasite Ichthyophonus have been linked to declines, but population-level effects of Ichthyophonus on Yukon Chinook salmon remain largely unknown. We developed a novel model that leverages changes in parasite intensity distributions to quantify the magnitude of disease-induced mortality occurring in host populations. We used it to address two questions to inform management of Yukon Chinook salmon: (i) Is parasite-induced mortality occurring in Chinook salmon and at what magnitude? (ii) What are the drivers of spatio-temporal variability in parasite-induced mortality? Using 3 years of surveys, we quantified the evidence for the presence, magnitude, and variability in Ichthyophonus -induced mortality in Chinook salmon. Our model predicted that Ichthyophonus was responsible for between 8% and 15% mortality of the migrating Chinook salmon population prior to reaching the Canadian border and could describe nearly 35% of unaccounted for mortality at the border. The model predicted that variability in mortality among years could largely be explained by differences in parasite acquisition in the marine environment rather than differences in infection dynamics in the river. Synthesis and applications . Alaska Department of Fish and Game is implementing an annual monitoring program at the mouth of the Yukon River where our model will estimate the proportion of fish at risk from parasite-induced mortality to inform annual management. Moreover, the model is broadly applicable to other fungal-like and myxozoan parasites of conservation concern, where improved estimates of parasite-induced mortality could be used to predict parasite suppression of wild and managed host populations.

Alaska↗
USGS2013

Evaluating a multispecies adaptive management framework: Must uncertainty impede effective decision-making?

Application of adaptive management to complex natural resource systems requires careful evaluation to ensure that the process leads to improved decision-making. As part of that evaluation, adaptive policies can be compared with alternative nonadaptive management scenarios. Also, the value of reducing structural (ecological) uncertainty to achieving management objectives can be quantified. A multispecies adaptive management framework was recently adopted by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission for sustainable harvest of Delaware Bay horseshoe crabs Limulus polyphemus, while maintaining adequate stopover habitat for migrating red knots Calidris canutus rufa , the focal shorebird species. The predictive model set encompassed the structural uncertainty in the relationships between horseshoe crab spawning, red knot weight gain and red knot vital rates. Stochastic dynamic programming was used to generate a state-dependent strategy for harvest decisions given that uncertainty. In this paper, we employed a management strategy evaluation approach to evaluate the performance of this adaptive management framework. Active adaptive management was used by including model weights as state variables in the optimization and reducing structural uncertainty by model weight updating. We found that the value of information for reducing structural uncertainty is expected to be low, because the uncertainty does not appear to impede effective management. Harvest policy responded to abundance levels of both species regardless of uncertainty in the specific relationship that generated those abundances. Thus, the expected horseshoe crab harvest and red knot abundance were similar when the population generating model was uncertain or known, and harvest policy was robust to structural uncertainty as specified. Synthesis and applications . The combination of management strategy evaluation with state-dependent strategies from stochastic dynamic programming was an informative approach to evaluate adaptive management performance and value of learning. Although natural resource decisions are characterized by uncertainty, not all uncertainty will cause decisions to be altered substantially, as we found in this case. It is important to incorporate uncertainty into the decision framing and evaluate the effect of reducing that uncertainty on achieving the desired outcomes

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2021

Tree mortality response to drought-density interactions suggests opportunities to enhance drought resistance

The future of dry forests around the world is uncertain given predictions that rising temperatures and enhanced aridity will increase drought-induced tree mortality. Using forest management and ecological restoration to reduce density and competition for water offers one of the few pathways that forests managers can potentially minimize drought-induced tree mortality. Competition for water during drought leads to elevated tree mortality in dense stands, although the influence of density on heat-induced stress, and the durations of hot or dry conditions that most impact mortality, remain unclear. Understanding how competition interacts with hot-drought stress is essential to recognize how, where, and how much reducing density can help sustain dry forests in a rapidly changing world. Here, we integrated repeat measurements of 28,881 ponderosa pine trees across the western US (2000-2017) with soil moisture estimates from a water balance model to examine how annual mortality responds to competition, temperature and soil moisture conditions. Tree mortality responded most strongly to basal area, and was elevated in places with high mean temperatures, unusually hot 7-year high temperature anomalies, and unusually dry 8-year low soil moisture anomalies. Mortality was also lower in places that experienced unusually wet 3-year soil moisture anomalies between measurements. Importantly, we found that basal area interacts with temperature and soil moisture, exacerbating mortality during times of stress imposed by high temperature or low moisture. Synthesis and Applications: Our results imply that a 50% reduction in forest basal area could reduce drought-driven tree mortality by 20-80%. The largest impacts of density reduction are seen in areas with high current basal area and places that experience high temperatures and/or severe multiyear droughts. These interactions between competition and drought are critical to understand past and future patterns of tree mortality in the context of climate change, and provide information for resource managers seeking to enhance dry forest drought resistance.

Journal of Applied Ecology.↗
USGS2009

Trend estimation in populations with imperfect detection

1. Trends of animal populations are of great interest in ecology but cannot be directly observed owing to imperfect detection. Binomial mixture models use replicated counts to estimate abundance, corrected for detection, in demographically closed populations. Here, we extend these models to open populations and illustrate them using sand lizard Lacerta agilis counts from the national Dutch reptile monitoring scheme. 2. Our model requires replicated counts from multiple sites in each of several periods, within which population closure is assumed. Counts are described by a hierarchical generalized linear model, where the state model deals with spatio-temporal patterns in true abundance and the observation model with imperfect counts, given that true state. We used WinBUGS to fit the model to lizard counts from 208 transects with 1–10 (mean 3) replicate surveys during each spring 1994–2005. 3. Our state model for abundance contained two independent log-linear Poisson regressions on year for coastal and inland sites, and random site effects to account for unexplained heterogeneity. The observation model for detection of an individual lizard contained effects of region, survey date, temperature, observer experience and random survey effects. 4. Lizard populations increased in both regions but more steeply on the coast. Detectability increased over the first few years of the study, was greater on the coast and for the most experienced observers, and highest around 1 June. Interestingly, the population increase inland was not detectable when the observed counts were analysed without account of detectability. The proportional increase between 1994 and 2005 in total lizard abundance across all sites was estimated at 86% (95% CRI 35–151). 5. Synthesis and applications . Open-population binomial mixture models are attractive for studying true population dynamics while explicitly accounting for the observation process, i.e. imperfect detection. We emphasize the important conceptual benefit provided by temporal replicate observations in terms of the interpretability of animal counts.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2018

Trophic implications of a phenological paradigm shift: Bald eagles and salmon in a changing climate

Climate change influences apex predators in complex ways, due to their important trophic position, capacity for resource plasticity, and sensitivity to numerous anthropogenic stressors. Bald eagles, an ecologically and culturally significant apex predator, congregate seasonally in high densities on salmon spawning rivers across the Pacific Northwest. One of the largest eagle concentrations is in the Skagit River watershed, which connects the montane wilderness of North Cascades National Park to the Puget Sound. Using multiple long‐term datasets, we evaluated local bald eagle abundance in relation to chum and coho salmon availability; salmon phenology; and the number and timing of flood events in the Skagit. We analysed changes over time as a reflection of climate change impacts, as well as differences between managed and unmanaged portions of the river. We found that peaks in chum salmon and bald eagle presence have advanced at remarkably similar rates ( c . 0.45 days/year), suggesting synchronous phenological responses within this trophic relationship. Yet the temporal relationship between chum salmon spawning and flood events, which remove salmon carcasses from the system, has not remained constant. This has resulted in a paradigm shift whereby the peak of chum spawning now occurs before the first flood event of the season rather than after. The interval between peak chum and first flood event was a significant predictor of bald eagle presence: as this interval grew over time (by nearly one day per year), bald eagle counts declined, with a steady decrease in bald eagle observations since 2002. River section was also an important factor, with fewer flood events, and more eagle observations occurring in the river section experiencing direct hydroelectric flow management. Synthesis and applications . The effects of climate change and hydroelectric management contribute to a complex human footprint in the North Cascades National Park, an otherwise largely natural ecosystem. By accounting for the differential phenological impacts of climate change on bald eagles, salmon, and flood events, Park managers and the operators of the hydroelectric system can more effectively ensure the resilience of the eagle–salmon relationship along the Skagit River.

Washington↗
USGS2005

Designing occupancy studies: General advice and allocating survey effort

1. The fraction of sampling units in a landscape where a target species is present (occu pancy) is an extensively used concept in ecology. Yet in many applications the species will not always be detected in a sampling unit even when present, resulting in biased estimates of occupancy. Given that sampling units are surveyed repeatedly within a r elatively short timeframe, a number of similar methods have now been developed to provide unbiased occupancy estimates. However, practical guidance on the efficient design of occupancy studies has been lacking. 2. In this paper we comment on a number of general issues related to designing occu pancy studies, including the need for clear objectives that are explicitly linked to science or management, selection of sampling units, timing of repeat surveys and allocation of survey effort. Advice on the number of repeat surveys per sampling unit is considered in terms of the variance of the occupancy estimator, for three possible study designs. 3. We r ecommend that sampling units should be surveyed a minimum of three times w hen detection probability is high (> 0·5 survey − 1 ), unless a removal design is used. 4. We f ound that an optimal removal design will generally be the most efficient, but we suggest it may be less robust to assumption violations than a standard design. 5. Our results suggest that for a rare species it is more efficient to survey more sampling units less intensively, while for a common species fewer sampling units should be surveyed more intensively. 6. Synthesis and applications . Reliable inferences can only result from quality data. To ma ke the best use of logistical resources, study objectives must be clearly defined; sampling units must be selected, and repeated surveys timed appropriately; and a sufficient n umber of repeated surveys must be conducted. Failure to do so may compromise the integrity of the study. The guidance given here on study design issues is particularly a pplicable to studies of species occurrence and distribution, habitat selection and modelling, metapopulation studies and monitoring programmes.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2013

Modelling interactions of toxicants and density dependence in wildlife populations

1. A major challenge in the conservation of threatened and endangered species is to predict population decline and design appropriate recovery measures. However, anthropogenic impacts on wildlife populations are notoriously difficult to predict due to potentially nonlinear responses and interactions with natural ecological processes like density dependence. 2. Here, we incorporated both density dependence and anthropogenic stressors in a stage-based matrix population model and parameterized it for a density-dependent population of peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus exposed to two anthropogenic toxicants [dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)]. Log-logistic exposure–response relationships were used to translate toxicant concentrations in peregrine falcon eggs to effects on fecundity. Density dependence was modelled as the probability of a nonbreeding bird acquiring a breeding territory as a function of the current number of breeders. 3. The equilibrium size of the population, as represented by the number of breeders, responded nonlinearly to increasing toxicant concentrations, showing a gradual decrease followed by a relatively steep decline. Initially, toxicant-induced reductions in population size were mitigated by an alleviation of the density limitation, that is, an increasing probability of territory acquisition. Once population density was no longer limiting, the toxicant impacts were no longer buffered by an increasing proportion of nonbreeders shifting to the breeding stage, resulting in a strong decrease in the equilibrium number of breeders. 4. Median critical exposure concentrations, that is, median toxicant concentrations in eggs corresponding with an equilibrium population size of zero, were 33 and 46 μg g −1 fresh weight for DDE and PBDEs, respectively. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our modelling results showed that particular life stages of a density-limited population may be relatively insensitive to toxicant impacts until a critical threshold is crossed. In our study population, toxicant-induced changes were observed in the equilibrium number of nonbreeding rather than breeding birds, suggesting that monitoring efforts including both life stages are needed to timely detect population declines. Further, by combining quantitative exposure–response relationships with a wildlife demographic model, we provided a method to quantify critical toxicant thresholds for wildlife population persistence.

California↗
USGS2011

Exploring sensitivity of a multistate occupancy model to inform management decisions

1. Dynamic occupancy models are often used to investigate questions regarding the processes that influence patch occupancy and are prominent in the fields of population and community ecology and conservation biology. Recently, multistate occupancy models have been developed to investigate dynamic systems involving more than one occupied state, including reproductive states, relative abundance states and joint habitat‐occupancy states. Here we investigate the sensitivities of the equilibrium‐state distribution of multistate occupancy models to changes in transition rates. 2. We develop equilibrium occupancy expressions and their associated sensitivity metrics for dynamic multistate occupancy models. To illustrate our approach, we use two examples that represent common multistate occupancy systems. The first example involves a three‐state dynamic model involving occupied states with and without successful reproduction (California spotted owl Strix occidentalis occidentalis ), and the second involves a novel way of using a multistate occupancy approach to accommodate second‐order Markov processes (wood frog Lithobates sylvatica breeding and metamorphosis). 3. In many ways, multistate sensitivity metrics behave in similar ways as standard occupancy sensitivities. When equilibrium occupancy rates are low, sensitivity to parameters related to colonisation is high, while sensitivity to persistence parameters is greater when equilibrium occupancy rates are high. Sensitivities can also provide guidance for managers when estimates of transition probabilities are not available. 4. Synthesis and applications. Multistate models provide practitioners a flexible framework to define multiple, distinct occupied states and the ability to choose which state, or combination of states, is most relevant to questions and decisions about their own systems. In addition to standard multistate occupancy models, we provide an example of how a second‐order Markov process can be modified to fit a multistate framework. Assuming the system is near equilibrium, our sensitivity analyses illustrate how to investigate the sensitivity of the system‐specific equilibrium state(s) to changes in transition rates. Because management will typically act on these transition rates, sensitivity analyses can provide valuable information about the potential influence of different actions and when it may be prudent to shift the focus of management among the various transition rates.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2015

Managing more than the mean: Using quantile regression to identify factors related to large elk groups

Summary Animal group size distributions are often right-skewed, whereby most groups are small, but most individuals occur in larger groups that may also disproportionately affect ecology and policy. In this case, examining covariates associated with upper quantiles of the group size distribution could facilitate better understanding and management of large animal groups. We studied wintering elk groups in Wyoming, where group sizes span several orders of magnitude, and issues of disease, predation and property damage are affected by larger group sizes. We used quantile regression to evaluate relationships between the group size distribution and variables of land use, habitat, elk density and wolf abundance to identify conditions important to larger elk groups. We recorded 1263 groups ranging from 1 to 1952 elk and found that across all quantiles of group size, group sizes were larger in open habitat and on private land, but the largest effect occurred between irrigated and non-irrigated land [e.g. the 90th quantile group size increased by 135 elk (95% CI = 42, 227) on irrigation]. Only upper quantile group sizes were positively related to broad-scale measures of elk density and wolf abundance. For wolf abundance, this effect was greater on elk groups found in open habitats and private land than those in closed habitats or public land. If we had limited our analysis to mean or median group sizes, we would not have detected these effects. Synthesis and applications . Our analysis of elk group size distributions using quantile regression suggests that private land, irrigation, open habitat, elk density and wolf abundance can affect large elk group sizes. Thus, to manage larger groups by removal or dispersal of individuals, we recommend incentivizing hunting on private land (particularly if irrigated) during the regular and late hunting seasons, promoting tolerance of wolves on private land (if elk aggregate in these areas to avoid wolves) and creating more winter range and varied habitats. Relationships to the variables of interest also differed by quantile, highlighting the importance of using quantile regression to examine response variables more completely to uncover relationships important to conservation and management.

Wyoming↗
USGS2011

Restoration of the fire-grazing interaction in Artemisia filifolia shrubland of the Southern Great Plains, North America

1.  Patterns of landscape heterogeneity are crucial to the maintenance of biodiversity in shrublands and grasslands, yet management practices in these ecosystems typically seek to homogenize landscapes. Furthermore, there is limited understanding of how the interaction of ecological processes, such as fire and grazing, affects patterns of heterogeneity at different spatial scales. 2.  We conducted research in Artemisia filifolia (Asteraceae) shrublands located in the southern Great Plains of North America to determine the effect of restoring the fire–grazing interaction on vegetation structure. Data were collected for 3 years in replicated pastures grazed by cattle Bos taurus where the fire–grazing interaction had been restored (fire and grazing = treatment pastures) and in pastures that were grazed but remained unburned (grazing only, no fire = control pastures). The effect of the fire–grazing interaction on heterogeneity (variance) of vegetation structure was assessed at scales from 12·5 m 2 to 609 ha. 3.  Most measurements of vegetation structure within treatment pastures differed from control pastures for 1–3 years after being burned but were thereafter similar to the values found in unburned control pastures. 4.  Treatment pastures were characterized by a lower amount of total heterogeneity and a lower amount of heterogeneity through time. 5.  Heterogeneity of vegetation structure tended to decrease as the scale of measurement increased in both treatment and control pastures. There was deviation from this trend, however, in the treatment pastures that exhibited much higher heterogeneity at the patch scale (mean patch size = 202 ha) of measurement, the scale at which patch fires were conducted. 6. Synthesis and applications . Vegetation structure in A. filifolia shrublands of our study was readily altered by the fire–grazing interaction but also demonstrated substantial resilience to these effects. The fire–grazing interaction also changed the total amount of heterogeneity characterizing this system, the scale at which heterogeneity in this system was expressed and the amount of heterogeneity expressed through time. Land managers seeking to impose a shifting mosaic of heterogeneity on this vegetation type can do so by restoring the fire–grazing interaction with potential conservation benefits similar to what has been achieved in other ecosystems where historic cycles of disturbance and rest have been restored.

Oklahoma↗
USGS2013

Relative influence of human harvest, carnivores, and weather on adult female elk survival across western North America

Well-informed management of harvested species requires understanding how changing ecological conditions affect demography and population dynamics, information that is lacking for many species. We have limited understanding of the relative influence of carnivores, harvest, weather and forage availability on elk Cervus elaphus demography, despite the ecological and economic importance of this species. We assessed adult female survival, a key vital rate for population dynamics, from 2746 radio-collared elk in 45 populations across western North America that experience wide variation in carnivore assemblage, harvest, weather and habitat conditions. Proportional hazard analysis revealed that 'baseline' (i.e. not related to human factors) mortality was higher with very high winter precipitation, particularly in populations sympatric with wolves Canis lupus. Mortality may increase via nutritional stress and heightened vulnerability to predation in snowy winters. Baseline mortality was unrelated to puma Puma concolor presence, forest cover or summer forage productivity. Cause-specific mortality analyses showed that wolves and all carnivore species combined had additive effects on baseline elk mortality, but only reduced survival by <2%. When human factors were included, ‘total’ adult mortality was solely related to harvest; the influence of native carnivores was compensatory. Annual total mortality rates were lowest in populations sympatric with both pumas and wolves because managers reduced female harvest in areas with abundant or diverse carnivores. Mortality from native carnivores peaked in late winter and early spring, while harvest-induced mortality peaked in autumn. The strong peak in harvest-induced mortality during the autumn hunting season decreased as the number of native carnivore species increased. Synthesis and applications. Elevated baseline adult female elk mortality from wolves in years with high winter precipitation could affect elk abundance as winters across the western US become drier and wolves recolonize portions of the region. In the absence of human harvest, wolves had additive, although limited, effects on mortality. However, human harvest, and its apparent use by managers to offset predation, primarily controls overall variation in adult female mortality. Altering harvest quotas is thus a strong tool for offsetting impacts of carnivore recolonization and shifting weather patterns on elk across western North America.

Colorado;Idaho;Montana;Utah;Washington;Wyoming↗
USGS2021

Forest thinning in the seaward fringe speeds up surface elevation increment and carbon accumulation in managed mangrove forests

Mangroves are significant carbon (C) sinks and ecological engineers as they accumulate sediments and increase soil surface elevation. Thus, the forest management practice of thinning may not only alter forest structure, but also facilitate new biogeomorphological processes that affect soil development. Thinning may create additional opportunity for understorey species, such as the light-demanding Acanthus ilicifolius , to become a more prominent vegetation component of mangroves, which may further alter soil surface elevation trajectories. Forest structure and soil surface elevation change (SEC) were monitored along transects from the landward edge (upper intertidal) to seaward fringe before and after thinning of non-native Sonneratia apetala plantations along the seaward edge of a mangrove site in China. Soil C accumulation was also evaluated. Acanthus individuals colonized the forest gaps created by Sonneratia thinning in the seaward forest edge of the intertidal zones. In the absence of other pioneer species or other mangrove propagules/seeds, Acanthus pioneers occupied the areas rapidly (from 33.6 to 72.6 stems/m 2 ), and were successful opportunists. Newly colonizing Acanthus vegetation significantly increased SEC from 25.1 mm/year before Sonneratia was thinned to 46.5 mm/year after thinning-induced Acanthus occupation. Furthermore, Acanthus occupation enhanced soil C accumulation at the seaward edge to 49.9 MgC ha −1 year −1 ; a rate twofold higher than in the Sonneratia plantation before thinning. Synthesis and applications . Prolific Acanthus growth formed small elevation mounds on the seaward forest edge, which was suspected as a positive effect induced by thinning Sonneratia plantations that further facilitated colonization of Acanthus clones. Thinning non-native Sonneratia disturbed the established zonation, altered SEC, and is facilitating further succession of these mangrove forests into un-occupied aquatic areas. Higher elevations created by Acanthus expansion (vertically and horizontally) may further promote a greater percentage of landward edge mangrove species to colonize at these more favourable intertidal elevations yielding at least short-term gains in soil carbon accumulation by altering ecosystem function. Silvicultural activity should consider unintended influences on sedimentation patterns both in situ and in adjacent habitats in tidal forests, where small elevation changes affect mangrove species habitat preferences.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗