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A synthesis of thresholds for focal species along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts: A review of research and applications

The impacts from climate change are increasing the possibility of vulnerable coastal species and habitats crossing critical thresholds that could spur rapid and possibly irreversible changes. For species of high conservation concern, improved knowledge of quantitative thresholds could greatly improve management. To meet this need, we synthesized information pertaining to biological responses as tipping points to sea level rise (SLR) and coastal storms for 45 fish, wildlife, and plant species along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts and Caribbean through a literature review and expert elicitation. Although these species were selected based on their ecological, economic, and cultural importance, just over half (56%, n = 25) have quantitative threshold data currently available that can be used to assess the effects of SLR and storms during some aspect of their life history. Birds, reptiles, and plants represent the best studied coastal species. Thirteen of the species (29%) are projected to lose at least 50% of their population or habitat (e.g., foraging, nesting, spawning, or resting habitat) in some areas with a 0.5 m or greater rise in sea levels by 2100. Two species (a bird and reptile) may gain habitat from projected SLR and be resilient to future impacts. Numeric thresholds were not available for the remaining 20 species we searched for. Coastal fishes, mammals, and amphibians were among the groups representing a major information gap in this field of research. In addition, quantitative threshold responses to coastal storms were scarce for all taxa. While vulnerability assessments and qualitative research related to the impacts of SLR and storms on coastal species and habitats are increasing, work that incorporates quantitative thresholds as response and impact metrics remains limited. Additional monitoring, modeling, and research that provides multiple quantitative thresholds across species' life stages and/or latitudinal gradients is ideal to support robust coastal management and decision-making across spatio-temporal scales in the face of climate change.

Ocean and Coastal Management

Population connectivity of pelagic megafauna in the Cuba-Mexico-United States triangle

The timing and extent of international crossings by billfishes, tunas, and sharks in the Cuba-Mexico-United States (U.S.) triangle was investigated using electronic tagging data from eight species that resulted in >22,000 tracking days. Transnational movements of these highly mobile marine predators were pronounced with varying levels of bi- or tri-national population connectivity displayed by each species. Billfishes and tunas moved throughout the Gulf of Mexico and all species investigated (blue marlin, white marlin, Atlantic bluefin tuna, yellowfin tuna) frequently crossed international boundaries and entered the territorial waters of Cuba and/or Mexico. Certain sharks (tiger shark, scalloped hammerhead) displayed prolonged periods of residency in U.S. waters with more limited displacements, while whale sharks and to a lesser degree shortfin mako moved through multiple jurisdictions. The spatial extent of associated movements was generally associated with their differential use of coastal and open ocean pelagic ecosystems. Species with the majority of daily positions in oceanic waters off the continental shelf showed the greatest tendency for transnational movements and typically traveled farther from initial tagging locations. Several species converged on a common seasonal movement pattern between territorial waters of the U.S. (summer) and Mexico (winter).

Scientific Reports

Cross-shelf transport of pink shrimp larvae: Interactions of tidal currents, larval vertical migrations and internal tides

Transport and behavior of pink shrimp Farfantepenaeu s duorarum larvae were investigated on the southwestern Florida (SWF) shelf of the Gulf of Mexico between the Dry Tortugas spawning grounds and Florida Bay nursery grounds. Stratified plankton samples and hydrographic data were collected at 2 h intervals at 3 stations located on a cross-shelf transect. At the Marquesas station, midway between Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay, internal tides were recognized by anomalously cool water, a shallow thermocline with strong density gradients, strong current shear, and a high concentration of pink shrimp larvae at the shallow thermocline. Low Richardson numbers occurred at the pycnocline depth, indicating vertical shear instability and possible turbulent transport from the lower to the upper layer where myses and postlarvae were concentrated. Analysis of vertically stratified plankton suggested that larvae perform vertical migrations and the specific behavior changes ontogenetically; protozoeae were found deeper than myses, and myses deeper than postlarvae. Relative concentrations of protozoea in the upper, middle and bottom layers were consistent with a diel vertical migration, whereas that of postlarvae and myses were consistent with the semidiurnal tides in phase with the flood tide. Postlarvae, the shallowest dwellers that migrate with a semidiurnal periodicity, experienced the largest net onshore flux and larval concentrations were highly correlated with the cross-shelf current. These results provide the first evidence of an onshore tidal transport (a type of selective tidal stream transport, STST), in decapod larvae migrating in continental shelf waters offshore, ca. 100 km from the coast and at a depth of 20 m, while approaching the coastal nursery grounds. Longer time series would be necessary to establish whether internal tides play any role in the larval onshore transport of this species and determine if the STST is the dominant onshore transport mechanism.

Florida

Seismic evidence for magmatic underplating along the Kodiak-Bowie Seamount Chain, Gulf of Alaska

Oceanic crust formed at mid-ocean ridges may be later modified by off-ridge magmatism forming seamounts, guyots, and islands. We investigate processes associated with seamount formation in the Gulf of Alaska Seamount Province using two coincident seismic reflection/wide-angle profiles. A north-south profile crosses the Kodiak-Bowie Seamount Chain and Aja fracture zone (FZ), and an orthogonal east-west profile is located about 90 km south of the seamount chain over Pacific plate oceanic crust. Structure along the profile away from the seamount chain is consistent with typical oceanic crust. Crust in our study region is thinnest (about 5.6 km) at the Aja FZ. Unlike observations from active transform faults, no low-velocity anomaly is observed at the Aja FZ suggesting that the crustal velocities have recovered to normal values through crack closure and crack healing. Higher lower crustal velocities (∼7.3 and > 7.5 km/s) and thicker crust (∼8.5 and ∼7.0 km) are observed near the Pratt and Durgin Seamounts and at the intersection of the Kodiak-Bowie Seamount Chain linear trend, respectively. These observations are attributed to magmatic underplating associated with seamount province magmatism. Lithospheric thickness variations across the Aja FZ may form a barrier or impediment to magmatic flow. The thickest crust (8.5 km) along our two profiles is located on the younger side of the FZ, and we suggest that the majority of magmatism jumped south of the Aja FZ when thinner lithosphere was encountered by the Bowie hot spot. The crustal structure near the Kodiak-Bowie Seamount Chain is most similar to that of other seamounts and guyots that formed on similarly young lithosphere (8–12 Ma). Our results suggest that lithospheric thickness at the time of hot spot interaction has a large control on magmatic underplating at seamounts and seamount provinces.

Alaska

Identifying shared priorities for a bioregional approach to restoration in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

Natural resource management is often challenged with a mismatch between the scale of decision-making and the scale of the biological, ecological, and physical processes that control a system. Bioregional approaches to adaptive management have emerged as an approach to inform natural resource management at ecologically relevant scales and across multi-level governance structures. The implementation of adaptive management requires the determination of ecological and social priorities that can inform a desired system state across multiple governing bodies. We use the Northern Gulf of Mexico, United States, as a case study for a bioregional approach to adaptive management and illustrate a method for developing objectives and management priorities across programs and jurisdictions. Through this synthesis, using qualitative coding methods to develop a shared vocabulary across the diverse dataset, we identified commonalities and differences in ecological and human community priorities across the five states which line the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Using these shared priorities, we conceptualize a network of priority-focused objectives as a starting point for further stakeholder engagement and effectively monitoring and evaluating progress across boundaries. This approach serves as a framework for cross-program adaptive management by illustrating a desired system state that reflects the shared priorities among decision-making authorities in this region and offering individual programs or projects a method to articulate their contributions to the broader set of shared priorities Gulf-wide. This method can be used by restoration managers in any region of the world to align project objectives within cross-jurisdictional boundaries and illustrate the value of a bioregional approach to restoration.

Gulf of Mexico

Early Pliocene marine transgression into the lower Colorado River valley, southwestern USA, by re-flooding of a former tidal strait

Marine straits and seaways are known to host a wide range of sedimentary processes and products, but the role of marine connections in the development of large river systems remains little studied. This study explores a hypothesis that shallow-marine waters flooded the lower Colorado River valley at c. 5 Ma along a fault-controlled former tidal strait, soon after the river was first integrated into the northern Gulf of California. The upper bioclastic member of the southern Bouse Formation provides a critical test of this hypothesis. The upper bioclastic member contains wave ripple-laminated bioclastic grainstone with minor red mudstone, pebbly grainstone with hummocky cross-stratification (HCS)-like stratification and symmetrical gravelly ripples, and calcareous-matrix conglomerate. Fossils include upward-branching segmented coralline-like red algae with no known modern relatives but confirmed as marine calcareous algae, echinoid spines, barnacles, shallow-marine foraminifers, clams, and serpulid worm tubes. These results provide evidence for deposition in a shallow-marine bay or estuary seaward of the transgressive backstepping Colorado River delta. Tsunamis generated by seismic and meteorological sources likely produced the HCS-like and wave-ripple cross-bedding in poorly-sorted gravelly grainstone. Marine waters inundated a former tidal strait within a fault-bounded tectonic lowland that connected the lower Colorado River to the Gulf of California. Delta backstepping and transgression resulted from a decrease in sediment output due to sediment trapping in upstream basins and relative sea-level rise produced by regional tectonic subsidence.

Arizona, California

Air-sea interactions during strong winter extratropical storms

A high-resolution, regional coupled atmosphere–ocean model is used to investigate strong air–sea interactions during a rapidly developing extratropical cyclone (ETC) off the east coast of the USA. In this two-way coupled system, surface momentum and heat fluxes derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting model and sea surface temperature (SST) from the Regional Ocean Modeling System are exchanged via the Model Coupling Toolkit. Comparisons are made between the modeled and observed wind velocity, sea level pressure, 10 m air temperature, and sea surface temperature time series, as well as a comparison between the model and one glider transect. Vertical profiles of modeled air temperature and winds in the marine atmospheric boundary layer and temperature variations in the upper ocean during a 3-day storm period are examined at various cross-shelf transects along the eastern seaboard. It is found that the air–sea interactions near the Gulf Stream are important for generating and sustaining the ETC. In particular, locally enhanced winds over a warm sea (relative to the land temperature) induce large surface heat fluxes which cool the upper ocean by up to 2 °C, mainly during the cold air outbreak period after the storm passage. Detailed heat budget analyses show the ocean-to-atmosphere heat flux dominates the upper ocean heat content variations. Results clearly show that dynamic air–sea interactions affecting momentum and buoyancy flux exchanges in ETCs need to be resolved accurately in a coupled atmosphere–ocean modeling framework.

Ocean Dynamics

Rising seas could cross thresholds for initiating coastal wetland drowning within decades across much of the United States

Accelerated sea-level rise is an existential threat to coastal wetlands, but the timing and extent of wetland drowning are debated. Recent data syntheses have clarified future relative sea-level rise exposure and sensitivity thresholds for drowning. Here, we integrate these advances to estimate when and where rising sea levels could cross thresholds for initiating wetland drowning across the conterminous United States. Our results show that there is much spatial variation in relative sea-level rise rates, which impacts the potential timing and extent of wetlands crossing thresholds. High rates of relative sea-level rise along wetland-rich parts of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts highlight areas where wetlands are already drowning or could begin to drown within decades, including large wetland landscapes within the Mississippi River delta, Greater Everglades, Chesapeake Bay, Texas, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Collectively, our results underscore the need to prepare for transformative coastal change.

Communications Earth & Environment

Surface faults in the gulf coastal plain between Victoria and Beaumont, Texas

Displacement of the land surface by faulting is widespread in the Houston-Galveston region, an area which has undergone moderate to severe land subsidence associated with fluid withdrawal (principally water, and to a lesser extent, oil and gas). A causative link between subsidence and fluid extraction has been convincingly reported in the published literature. However, the degree to which fluid withdrawal affects fault movement in the Texas Gulf Coast, and the mechanism(s) by which this occurs are as yet unclear. Faults that offset the ground surface are not confined to the large (>6000-km 2 ) subsidence “bowl” centered on Houston, but rather are common and characteristic features of Gulf Coast geology. Current observations and conclusions concerning surface faults mapped in a 35,000-km 2 area between Victoria and Beaumont, Texas (which area includes the Houston subsidence bowl) may be summarized as follows: (1) Hundreds of faults cutting the Pleistocene and Holocene sediments exposed in the coastal plain have been mapped. Many faults lie well outside the Houston-Galveston region; of these, more than 10% are active, as shown by such features as displaced, fractured, and patched road surfaces, structural failure of buildings astride faults, and deformed railroad tracks. (2) Complex patterns of surface faults are common above salt domes. Both radial patterns (for example, in High Island, Blue Ridge, Clam Lake, and Clinton domes) and crestal grabens (for example, in the South Houston and Friendswood-Webster domes) have been recognized. Elongate grabens connecting several known and suspected salt domes, such as the fault zone connecting Mykawa, Friendswood-Webster, and Clear Lake domes, suggest fault development above rising salt ridges. (3) Surface faults associated with salt domes tend to be short (<5 km in length), numerous, curved in map view, and of diverse trend. Intersecting faults are common. In contrast, surface faults in areas unaffected by salt diapirism are frequently mappable for appreciable distances (>10 km), occur singly or in simple grabens, have gently sinuous traces, and tend to lie roughly parallel to the ENE-NE “coastwise” trend common to regional growth faults identified in subsurface Tertiary sediments. (4) Evidence to support the thesis that surface scarps are the shallow expression of faults extending downward into the Tertiary section is mostly indirect, but nonetheless reasonably convincing. Certainly the patterns of crestal grabens and radiating faults mapped on the surface above salt domes are more than happenstance; analogous fault patterns have been documented around these structures at depth. Similarly, some of the long surface faults not associated with salt domes seem to have subsurface counterparts among known regional growth faults documented through well logs and seismic data. Correlations between surface scarps and faults offsetting subsurface data are not conclusive because of the large vertical distances (1900- 3800 m) involved in making the most of the inferred connections. Nevertheless, the large number of successful correlations - in trend, movement sense, and position - suggests that many surface scarps represent merely the most recent displacements on faults formed during the Tertiary. (5) Upstream-facing fault scarps in this region of low relief can be significant impediments to streams. Locally, both abandoned, mud-filled Pleistocene distributary channels and, more commonly, Holocene drainage lines still occupied by perennial streams reflect the influence of faulting on their development. Some bend sharply near faults and have tended to flow along or pond against the base of scarps; others meander within topographically expressed grabens. Such evidence for Quaternary displacement of the ground surface is widespread in the Texas Gulf coast. In the general, however, streams in areas now offset by faulting show no disruption of their courses where they cross fault scarps. Such scarps are probably very young, and where they can be demonstrated to partly or wholly predate fluid withdrawal, very recent natural fault activity is indicated. (6) Early aerial photographs (1930) of the entire region and topographic maps (1915-16 surveys) of Harris County (Houston and vicinity) show that many faults had already displaced the land surface at a time when appreciable pressure declines in subjacent strata were localized to relatively few areas of large-scale pumping. Prehistoric faulting of the land surface, as noted above, appears to have affected much of the Texas Gulf Coast. (7) A relation between groundwater extraction and current motion on active faults is suspected because of the increased incidence of ground failure in the Houston-Galveston subsidence bowl. This argument is weakened somewhat by recognition of numerous surface faults, some of them active today, far beyond the periphery of the strongly subsiding area. Moreover, tilt beam records from two monitored faults in northwest Houston and accounts of fault damage from local residents demonstrate a complex, episodic nature of fault creep which can only partially be correlated with groundwater production. Nevertheless, although specific mechanisms are in doubt, the extraction of groundwater from shallow (<800-m) sands is probably a major factor in contributing to current displacement of the ground surface in the Houston-Galveston region. Within this large area, the number of faults recognizable from aerial photographs has increased at least tenfold between 1930 and 1970. Elsewhere in the Texas Gulf Coast only a moderate increase has been noted, some of which is possibly attributable to oil and gas production. Surface fault density in the Houston-Galveston region is far greater than in any other area of the Texas Gulf Coast investigated to date. A plausible explanation for these differences is that large overdrafts of groundwater over an extended period of time in the Houston-Galveston region have stimulated fault activity there. Throughout the Texas Gulf Coast, however, a natural contribution to fault motion remains a distinct possibility.

Texas

An investigation of submarine groundwater—borne nutrient fluxes to the west Florida shelf and recurrent harmful algal blooms

A cross‐shelf, water‐column mass balance of radon‐222 ( 222 Rn) provided estimates of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD), which were then used to quantify benthic nutrient fluxes. Surface water and groundwater were collected along a shore‐normal transect that extended from Tampa Bay, Florida, across the Pinellas County peninsula, to the 10‐m isobath in the Gulf of Mexico. Samples were analyzed for 222 Rn and radium‐223,224,226 ( 223,224,226 Ra) activities as well as inorganic and organic nutrients. Cross‐shore gradients of 222 Rn and 223,224,226 Ra activities indicate a nearshore source for these isotopes, which mixes with water characterized by low activities offshore. Radon‐based SGD rates vary between 2.5 and 15 cm d −1 proximal to the shoreline and decrease offshore. The source of SGD is largely shallow exchange between surface and pore waters, although deeper groundwater cycling may also be important. Enrichment of total dissolved nitrogen and soluble reactive phosphorus in pore water combined with SGD rates results in specific nutrient fluxes comparable to or greater than estuarine fluxes from Tampa Bay. The significance of these fluxes to nearshore blooms of Karenia brevis is highlighted by comparison with prescribed nutrient demands for bloom maintenance and growth. Whereas our flux estimates do not indicate SGD and benthic fluxes as the dominant nutrient source to the harmful algal blooms, SGD‐derived loads do narrow the deficit between documented nutrient supplies and bloom demands.

Florida

Surface-water hydrology of the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway in South-Central Louisiana, 1996-99

The flow of freshwater and suspended sediment from the Lower Atchafalaya River (LAR) and Wax Lake Outlet (WLO) into and along the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway (GIWW) and selected adjacent surface-water bodies between Cypremort and Larose in south-central Louisiana, from October 1996 to December 1999, was characterized using instantaneous and computed continuous discharge measurements and measurements of suspended- sediment concentrations. The GIWW parallels the entire Louisiana coast near the wetland/ upland interface. Following natural hydraulic gradients, the GIWW captures water and sediment from the southward flowing LAR and the WLO where it crosses those waterways, and distributes this freshwater and sediment to points east and west. East of Morgan City, La., an average of 12,200 ft3/s (cubic feet per second) of water flowed from the LAR into the Avoca Island Cutoff Channel. The LAR was the primary source of water to the GIWW east of Morgan City. Drainage from the Verret Subbasin through Bayou Boeuf contributed an average of 1,000 ft3/s to the eastward flow in the GIWW. Eastward flow in the GIWW near Bay Wallace east of Morgan City and to the west of the Houma Navigation Canal (HNC) at Houma, La., averaged about 5,700 ft3/s. Average flow in the GIWW east of the HNC at Houma was 2,610 ft3/s to the east, and 2,200 ft3/s east of Bayou Lafourche at Larose, also to the east. Measured discharge in the GIWW was always to the west between the LAR and WLO. Water entered this stretch of the GIWW from the LAR. The WLO was the primary source of water to the GIWW west of WLO. Discharge in the GIWW averaged 9,460 ft3/s west of WLO south of Calumet and 8,230 ft3/s east of Jaws Bay west of Franklin. Average discharge in the GIWW west of Jaws Bay near Cypremort was 3,310 ft3/s and at Cypremort was 1,350 ft3/s. Average discharge was to the west at all four locations, but discharge as high as 2,830 ft3/s was measured flowing eastward toward Jaws Bay in the GIWW at Cypremort. In bayous and canals in most of coastal Louisiana, including the GIWW, stage narrowly fluctuates around the Gulf of Mexico level. Where the GIWW crosses the LAR and WLO, stage can reach 3 ft (feet) or more above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD88). Flow in the GIWW results from these differences in stage. When the LAR at Morgan City reached 3 to 4 ft above NAVD88, flow in the GIWW became more predictable. Discharge at most sites between the HNC and Jaws Bay increased in varying amounts as stage of the LAR at Morgan City increased beyond 3 ft above NAVD88. At sites in the GIWW east of HNC, discharge did not increase predictably. For all measurements made when the LAR at Morgan City was 3 ft or more above NAVD88, average discharge was about 3,100 ft3/s in the GIWW east of HNC at Houma and 2,880 ft3/s east of Bayou Lafourche at Larose. The LAR at Morgan City is 3 ft or more above NAVD88 for about 7 months in a normal year. When the LAR at Morgan City was less than 3 ft above NAVD88, water in the GIWW flowed along the prevailing water-level gradients, to the east between Bay Wallace and the HNC and to the west between WLO and Jaws Bay. However, local runoff and drainage from areas adjacent to the GIWW became more significant in maintaining flow at low LAR stage. Discharge was consistently higher in the GIWW west of the HNC at Houma than farther west near Bay Wallace east of Morgan City, when the LAR at Morgan City was less than 3 ft above NAVD88. Westward flow in the GIWW between Houma and Morgan City was observed near Bay Wallace east of Morgan City but was never observed west of the HNC at Houma. Discharge in the GIWW east of Jaws Bay west of Franklin, La., frequently was higher than in the GIWW west of WLO south of Calumet, La., at low LAR stage. East of the LAR, suspended-sediment concentrations averaged about 162 mg/L (milligrams per liter) at the two sites closest to the LAR, Avoca Island Cutoff Channel and Bayou Penchant south of Morgan Ci

Professional Paper

Sediment delivery to the Gulf of Alaska: Source mechanisms along a glaciated transform margin

Sediment delivery to the Gulf of Alaska occurs via four areally extensive deepwater fans, sourced from grounded tidewater glaciers. During periods of climatic cooling, glaciers cross a narrow shelf and discharge sediment down the continental slope. Because the coastal terrain is dominated by fjords and a narrow, high-relief Pacific watershed, deposition is dominated by channellized point-source fan accumulations, the volumes of which are primarily a function of climate. The sediment distribution is modified by a long-term tectonic translation of the Pacific plate to the north along the transform margin. As a result, the deep-water fans are gradually moved away from the climatically controlled point sources. Sets of abandoned channels record the effect of translation during the Plio-Pleistocene.

Geological Society Special Publication

Simulated effects of projected pumping on the availability of freshwater in the Evangeline Aquifer in an area southwest of Corpus Christi, Texas

This study is an investigation of the continued availability of freshwater in the Evangeline aquifer along the Texas Gulf Coast and the potential for degradation of the water quality by salinewater intrusion. Recharge to the aquifer occurs by the infiltration of precipitation in the outcrop area and by cross-formational flow from deeper aquifers. The predevelopment recharge rate is about 6 to 8 cubic feet per second. The predevelopment flow is toward the coast. The flow is semiconfined in the outcrop area and confined underneath the Chicot aquifer in the eastern two-thirds of the study area. Discharge, under natural conditions, is upward into the Chicot aquifer and to the Nueces River or Gulf of Mexico. Intensive pumping by irrigators, industries, and municipalities over the last 80 years has created a cone of depression as deep as 219 feet below sea level under the city of Kingsville in Kleberg County. The total rate of pumpage in 1982 was 29.6 cubic feet per second. A mathematical model of the flow and water quality in the Evangel ine aquifer was developed using available data to simulate the historical effect of pumping on the potentiometric surface and water quality, and to simulate the effect of projected pumping on the potentiometric surface and water quality to the year 2020. The water quality in the aquifer is only marginally suitable for drinking water. The chloride concentration before development in the 1930's and 1940's, ranged from 9 to 1,971 milligrams per liter. The mean chloride concentration was 353 (standard deviation 262) milligrams per liter. The potential sources of water-quality degradation on a regional scale are: Salinewater intrusion from under the Gulf of Mexico; movement of poor quality water within outlying sections of the aquifer; and downward leakage from the overlying Chicot aquifer. Leakage from the Chicot is the most likely to cause serious regional water-quality degradation. Other local potential sources of contamination are: Leaky well casings, oil-field brine disposal, water movement along faults, and in-situ uranium mining. These sources might create some local water-quality degradation. The results of the historical period simulation indicate, as do current field data, that little or no significant deterioration has occurred in the water quality of the Evangeline aquifer. The simulations and the sensitivity tests of the aquifer properties, conditions, and assumptions indicate that vertical conductivity of the Chicot aquifer is the most sensitive and least well known part of the system. The storage coefficient of the Evangeline aquifer and the aggregate thickness of high-conductivity sand layers within the aquifer as well as the vertical distribution of these layers are also important properties that are not well known. Two simulations of the projected pumping a low estimate, as much as 46.2 cubic feet per second during 2011-20; and a high estimate, as much as 60.0 cubic feet per second during the same period indicate that no further regional water-quality deterioration is likely to occur. Many important properties and conditions are estimated from poor or insufficient field data, and possible ranges of these properties and conditions are tested. In spite of the errors and data deficiencies, the results are based on the best estimates currently available. The reliability of the conclusions rests on the adequacy of the data and the demonstrated sensitivity of the model results to errors in estimates of these properties.

Texas

Ocean carbon and biogeochemistry scoping workshop on terrestrial and coastal carbon fluxes in the Gulf of Mexico, St. Petersburg, FL, May 6-8, 2008

Despite their relatively small surface area, ocean margins may have a significant impact on global biogeochemical cycles and, potentially, the global air-sea fluxes of carbon dioxide. Margins are characterized by intense geochemical and biological processing of carbon and other elements and exchange large amounts of matter and energy with the open ocean. The area-specific rates of productivity, biogeochemical cycling, and organic/inorganic matter sequestration are high in coastal margins, with as much as half of the global integrated new production occurring over the continental shelves and slopes (Walsh, 1991; Doney and Hood, 2002; Jahnke, in press). However, the current lack of knowledge and understanding of biogeochemical processes occurring at the ocean margins has left them largely ignored in most of the previous global assessments of the oceanic carbon cycle (Doney and Hood, 2002). A major source of North American and global uncertainty is the Gulf of Mexico, a large semi-enclosed subtropical basin bordered by the United States, Mexico, and Cuba. Like many of the marginal oceans worldwide, the Gulf of Mexico remains largely unsampled and poorly characterized in terms of its air-sea exchange of carbon dioxide and other carbon fluxes. In May 2008, the Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry Scoping Workshop on Terrestrial and Coastal Carbon Fluxes in the Gulf of Mexico was held in St. Petersburg, FL, to address the information gaps of carbon fluxes associated with the Gulf of Mexico and to offer recommendations to guide future research. The meeting was attended by over 90 participants from over 50 U.S. and Mexican institutions and agencies. The Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry program (OCB; http://www.us-ocb.org/) sponsored this workshop with support from the National Science Foundation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the University of South Florida. The goal of the workshop was to bring together researchers from multiple disciplines studying terrestrial, aquatic, and marine ecosystems to discuss the state of knowledge in carbon fluxes in the Gulf of Mexico, data gaps, and overarching questions in the Gulf of Mexico system. The discussions at the workshop were intended to stimulate integrated studies of marine and terrestrial biogeochemical cycles and associated ecosystems that will help to establish the role of the Gulf of Mexico in the carbon cycle and how it might evolve in the face of environmental change. The information derived from the plenary sessions, questions, and recommendations formulated by the participants will drive future research projects. Further discussion of carbon dynamics is needed to address scales of variability, the infrastructure required for study, and the modeling framework for cross-system integration. During the workshop, participants discussed and provided a number of priorities and recommendations, which are listed on p. 2 of the report. Participants recognized that the key to understanding the Gulf of Mexico system requires international collaboration with scientists from countries adjacent to the Gulf of Mexico. Improved collaboration across existing research community boundaries will be critical and should be encouraged by the funding agencies.

Open-File Report

Origin of the Gulf of California

The probable cumulative Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic right-lateral strike-slip displacement along the San Andreas fault in central California is 350 miles. The San Andreas and the allied faults into which it branches southward trend longitudinally into the Gulf of California , and the seismicity of the region indicates that the fault system follows the length of the Gulf and enters the Pacific basin south of Baja California . Crustal structure of most of the Gulf is of oceanic type, so that an origin by structural depression of continental rocks is not possible. Tectonic styles north and south of Los Angeles differ greatly. To the north, the Coast Ranges expose thick Upper Cretaceous and Cenozoic sedimentary rocks that were deposited in local basins and deformed tightly and repeatedly. To the south, in the Peninsular Ranges and Baja California , correlative rocks are thin and show little compressive deformation. The California batholith of mid-Cretaceous age and allied crystalline rocks form the basement of Baja California , southwestern Arizona, and northwestern Sonora and probably extend along the coast of mainland Mexico; the Gulf apparently bisects the crystalline belt longitudinally. These features suggest that Baja California initially lay 300 miles to the southeast, against the continental-margin bulge of Jalisco. The Gulf of California may be a pull-apart feature caused by strike-slip displacement plus up to 100 miles of cross-strike separation of the continental plate, subcontinental materials having welled up into the rift gap. The strike-slip motion has a tensional component across the continental margin south of Los Angeles but a compressional component to the north.

Gulf of California

Salt-water movement in the lower Withlacoochee River-Cross Florida Barge Canal Complex

Construction of the west end of the Cross Florida Barge Canal changed the regimen of the lower Withlacoochee River. The investigation was made to determine how salt water from the Gulf of Mexico moves in the river-canal complex, and how the factors that control salt-water movement--tides and discharge--have changed since canal construction. In the river below the bypass channel, salt water moves inland as a wedge beneath the fresh water with upstream tidal flows and back toward the Gulf with downstream tidal flows. The salt front in the river tends to move farthest upstream near times of relatively high water, or higher high water preceded by relatively high higher low water, especially during of after several days of rising mean tide level.

Florida

USGS assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources in Paleogene strata of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coastal plain and state waters

This report presents a review of the U.S. Geological Survey ( USGS ) 2007 assessment of the undiscovered oil and gas resources in Paleogene strata underlying the U.S. Gulf of Mexico Coastal Plain and state waters. Geochemical, geologic, geophysical, thermal maturation, burial history, and paleontologic studies have been combined with regional cross sections and data from previous USGS petroleum assessments have helped to define the major petroleum systems and assessment units. Accumulations of both conventional oil and gas and continuous coal-bed gas within these petroleum systems have been digitally mapped and evaluated, and undiscovered resources have been assessed following USGS methodology. The primary source intervals for oil and gas in Paleogene (and Cenozoic) reservoirs are coal and shale rich in organic matter within the Wilcox Group (Paleocene-Eocene) and Sparta Formation of the Claiborne Group (Eocene); in addition, Cretaceous and Jurassic source rocks probably have contributed substantial petroleum to Paleogene (and Cenozoic) reservoirs. For the purposes of the assessment, Paleogene strata have divided into the following four stratigraphic study intervals: (1) Wilcox Group (including the Midway Group and the basal Carrizo Sand of the Claiborne Group; Paleocene-Eocene); (2) Claiborne Group (Eocene); (3) Jackson and Vicksburg Groups (Eocene-Oligocene); and (4) the Frio-Anahuac Formations (Oligocene). Recent discoveries of coal-bed gas in Paleocene strata confirm a new petroleum system that was not recognized in previous USGS assessments. In total, 26 conventional Paleogene assessment units are defined. In addition, four Cretaceous-Paleogene continuous (coal-bed gas) assessment units are included in this report. Initial results of the assessment will be released as USGS Fact Sheets (not available at the time of this writing). Comprehensive reports for each assessment unit are planned to be released via the internet and distributed on CD-ROMs within the next year.

U.S. Gulf Coast

Seasonal flows of international British Columbia-Alaska rivers: The nonlinear influence of ocean-atmosphere circulation patterns

The northern portion of the Pacific coastal temperate rainforest (PCTR) is one of the least anthropogenically modified regions on earth and remains in many respects a frontier area to science. Rivers crossing the northern PCTR, which is also an international boundary region between British Columbia, Canada and Alaska, USA, deliver large freshwater and biogeochemical fluxes to the Gulf of Alaska and establish linkages between coastal and continental ecosystems. We evaluate interannual flow variability in three transboundary PCTR watersheds in response to El Ni&ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). Historical hydroclimatic datasets from both Canada and the USA are analyzed using an up-to-date methodological suite accommodating both seasonally transient and highly nonlinear teleconnections. We find that streamflow teleconnections occur over particular seasonal windows reflecting the intersection of specific atmospheric and terrestrial hydrologic processes. The strongest signal is a snowmelt-driven flow timing shift resulting from ENSO- and PDO-associated temperature anomalies. Autumn rainfall runoff is also modulated by these climate modes, and a glacier-mediated teleconnection contributes to a late-summer ENSO-flow association. Teleconnections between AO and freshet flows reflect corresponding temperature and precipitation anomalies. A coherent NPGO signal is not clearly evident in streamflow. Linear and monotonically nonlinear teleconnections were widely identified, with less evidence for the parabolic effects that can play an important role elsewhere. The streamflow teleconnections did not vary greatly between hydrometric stations, presumably reflecting broad similarities in watershed characteristics. These results establish a regional foundation for both transboundary water management and studies of long-term hydroclimatic and environmental change.

Alaska, British Columbia