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USGS1965

Records of ground-water levels and effects of pumping in the Ardmore well-field area, Carter County, Oklahoma

The purpose of this report is to outline the results of work done by the U.S. Geological Survey in the Ardmore well-field area, near Newport, Carter County. The work, completed in two periods between April 1964 and June 1965, was done as part of the ground-water program carried out by the Geological Survey in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board. The study in the report area included: (1) a physical inventory of wells in the vicinity of the Ardmore well field (fig. 1); (2) information on depths, perforated intervals, ground-water levels, and water use (table 1); (3) records of water-level fluctuations in deep and shallow wells (table 2) to determine if there is a hydraulic connection between the deep zones tapped by Ardmore's wells and the shallow and intermediate zones tapped by domestic and stock wells in the surrounding area; and (4) general information on the geologic and hydrologic features that may be of use in evaluating the ground-water potential of the Wichita Formation, the principal aquifer in the area. (available as photostat copy only)

Open-File Report↗

USGS1985

[Book review] The birds of San Diego County

San Diego County, California is larger in area than 2 of the 50 states (combined), its geographic (and thus biological) diversity ranges from the seacoast across mountains of nearly 2,000 m elevation to extreme desert, it is the southwesternmost county of the contiguous U.S., and it is inhabited by dedicated birders whose observations have boosted the county list to more than 450 species. "The Birds of San Diego County" provides detailed information on the geographic, ecological, and temporal distribution and abundance of each of the 449 species of native birds reported in the county-for some, by subspecies. Maps of breeding distribution are presented for 129 of the 181 breeding species (of which 26 are considered to be extirpated or only occasional breeders). Ecological zones and terms of abundance are defined precisely, and the definitions are adhered to. Welcomely absent are long para- graphs of descriptive and generalized information.

The Auk↗

USGS1960

Ground-water areas and well logs, Central Sevier Valley, Utah

Between September 1959 and June 1960 the United States Geological Survey and the Utah State Engineer, with financial assistance from Garfield, Millard, Piute, Sanpete, and Sevier Counties and from local water-users' associations, cooperated in an investigation to determine the structural framework of the central Sevier Valley and to evaluate the valley's ground-water potential. An important aspect of the study was the drilling of 22 test holes under private contract. These data and other data collected during the course of the larger ground-water investigation of which the test drilling was a part will be evaluated in a report on the geology and ground-water resources of the central Sevier Valley. The present report has been prepared to make available the logs of the test holes and to describe in general terms the availability of ground water in the different areas of the valley. The test holes were located to determine the subsurface geology of the valley, but of principal interest for this report is the water-bearing materials that were penetrated by the test holes. Ten of the holes penetrated materials capable of yielding sufficient water for irrigation; 10 holes penetrated water-yielding materials that could supply water for domestic or stock use; 2 holes were unsuccessful as water prospects but supplied geologic information. Generally, the water in the test holes was of good quality for stock, domestic, or irrigation use, except in test holes 1, 2, 4, 5, 16, 17, and 19 where water from some beds was highly mineralized. Water from the upper water-bearing bed in test holes 1, 2, 4, 5 and 16 and from the 6 upper water-bearing beds in test hole 19 was high in sodium chloride and sodium sulphate and would be unpalatable to humans and stock. The upper water in test hole 17 would be palatable to stock accustomed to brackish water, but the water from below 78 feet is too saline for any use. The central Sevier Valley has been divided into arbitrary ground-water areas that are based in part on topographic and geologic boundaries. The test holes are described by areas downstream from south to north, and the logs of table 1 are arranged from south to north.

Utah↗

USGS1971

Water-level changes 1964-71, northern High Plains of Colorado

Ground-water withdrawals for irrigation increased from about 84,000 acre-feet to 430,000 acre-feet per year between 1960 and 1970 in the northern High Plains of Colorado, causing significant water-level declines in areas where high-capacity wells are concentrated. The number of wells increased from about 500 in 1960 to 2,560 in 1970. In 1968 the U.S. Geological Survey began a study in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board; the Colorado Division of Water Resources, Office of the State Engineer; and the Management Districts of the northern High Plains to provide information for administration and management of the vital ground-water reserves of the northern High Plains. The northern High Plains of Colorado is formed from an erosional remanent of the Ogallala Formation of Pliocene Age that extends from the South Platte River on the north to the Arkansas River on the south, and from Limon, Colo. on the west across the Colorado State line on the east (fig. 1). This area includes all or part of 11 counties and contains about 9,500 square miles. General information describing the ground-water resources of the northern High Plains of Colorado is presented in table 1. Plate 1 shows the net changes in water level between 1964 and 1971. Other published water-level change maps are for the period from 1964-68 and 1964-69 (Boettcher and others, 1969). The map (pl. 1) is based on annual water-level measurements made in 1964 and 1971 in about 300 wells tapping the Ogallala aquifer. Areas with either a net decline or a net rise are shown. Large declines recorded near Yuma and Burlington correspond to relatively high concentrations (2 per sq mi) of high-capacity wells. Also included in this report are 11 hydrographs typical of the water-level changes during this period (figs. 2-4). The hydrographs show water-level changes from 1964, or as early as 1956 to 1971, and illustrate the consistency of water-level change rates. Because proper management of ground-water resources requires systematic and valid basic data, the annual water-level measurements should continue.

Colorado↗

USGS1960

A primer on water

When you open the faucet you expect water to flow. And you expect it to flow night or day, summer or winter, whether you want to fill a glass or water the lawn. It should be clean and pure, without any odor. You have seen or read about places where the water doesn't have these qualities. You may have lived in a city where you were allowed to water the lawn only during a few hours of certain days. We know a large town where the water turns brown after every big rainstorm. Beginning shortly after World War II, large areas in the Southwestern United States had a 10-year drought, and newspapers published a lot of information about its effects. Some people say that the growing demand for water will cause serious shortages over much of the country in the next 10 to 40 years. But it has always been true that while water wells and springs dry up in some places, floods may be occurring in other places at the same time. Nearly every month news stories are published describing floods somewhere in the country. In fact, every year, on the average, 75,000 persons are forced from their homes by floods. In some years, as in 1951 when the lower Kansas River experienced a great flood, half a million people are affected. To understand the reasons for such recurring distress, it is necessary to know something about rivers and about the flat land or flood plain that borders the river. Interest in water and related problems is growing as our population increases and as the use of water becomes steadily greater. To help meet this heightened interest in general information about water and its use and control is the reason this primer was written. The primer is in two parts. The first part tells about hydrology, or the science that concerns the relation of water to our earth, and the second part describes the development of water supplies and the use of water. The Geological Survey is publishing this primer in nontechnical language in the hope that it will enable the general reader to understand the facts about water as a part of nature, and that by having this understanding the people can solve their water problems. We, as representatives of the Geological Survey, acknowledge with thanks the helpful suggestions made on an early draft by Marion Loizeaux, Maria Lord Converse, Constance Foley, Laura R. Langbein, and Bruce C. Leopold. We are also indebted to various geologists and engineers of the Survey for their discerning critical reviews.

General Interest Publication↗

USGS2017

Critical mineral resources of the United States—Economic and environmental geology and prospects for future supply

Summary Mineral commodities are vital for economic growth, improving the quality of life, providing for national defense, and the overall functioning of modern society. Minerals are being used in larger quantities than ever before and in an increasingly diverse range of applications. With the increasing demand for a considerably more diverse suite of mineral commodities has come renewed recognition that competition and conflict over mineral resources can pose significant risks to the manufacturing industries that depend on them. In addition, production of many mineral commodities has become concentrated in relatively few countries (for example, tungsten, rare-earth elements, and antimony in China; niobium in Brazil; and platinum-group elements in South Africa and Russia), thus increasing the risk for supply disruption owing to political, social, or other factors. At the same time, an increasing awareness of and sensitivity to potential environmental and health issues caused by the mining and processing of many mineral commodities may place additional restrictions on mineral supplies. These factors have led a number of Governments, including the Government of the United States, to attempt to identify those mineral commodities that are viewed as most “critical” to the national economy and (or) security if supplies should be curtailed. This book presents resource and geologic information on the following 23 mineral commodities currently among those viewed as important to the national economy and national security of the United States: antimony (Sb), barite (barium, Ba), beryllium (Be), cobalt (Co), fluorite or fluorspar (fluorine, F), gallium (Ga), germanium (Ge), graphite (carbon, C), hafnium (Hf), indium (In), lithium (Li), manganese (Mn), niobium (Nb), platinum-group elements (PGE), rare-earth elements (REE), rhenium (Re), selenium (Se), tantalum (Ta), tellurium (Te), tin (Sn), titanium (Ti), vanadium (V), and zirconium (Zr). For a number of these commodities—for example, graphite, manganese, niobium, and tantalum—the United States is currently wholly dependent on imports to meet its needs. The first two chapters (A and B) deal with general information pertinent to the study of mineral resources. Chapters C through V describe individual mineral commodities and include an overview of current uses of the commodity, identified resources and their distribution nationally and globally, the state of current geologic knowledge, the potential for finding additional deposits nationally and globally, and geoenvironmental issues that may be related to the production and uses of the commodity. These chapters are updates of the commodity chapters published in 1973 in U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 820, “United States Mineral Resources.”

Professional Paper↗

USGS2012

The Mekong Fish Network: expanding the capacity of the people and institutions of the Mekong River Basin to share information and conduct standardized fisheries monitoring

The Mekong River is one of the most biologically diverse rivers in the world, and it supports the most productive freshwater fisheries in the world. Millions of people in the Lower Mekong River Basin (LMB) countries of the Union of Myanmar (Burma), Lao People’s Democratic Republic, the Kingdom of Thailand, the Kingdom of Cambodia, and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam rely on the fisheries of the basin to provide a source of protein. The Mekong Fish Network Workshop was convened in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, in February 2012 to discuss the potential for coordinating fisheries monitoring among nations and the utility of establishing standard methods for short- and long-term monitoring and data sharing throughout the LMB. The concept for this network developed out of a frequently cited need for fisheries researchers in the LMB to share their knowledge with other scientists and decisionmakers. A fish monitoring network could be a valuable forum for researchers to exchange ideas, store data, or access general information regarding fisheries studies in the LMB region. At the workshop, representatives from governments, nongovernmental organizations, and universities, as well as participating foreign technical experts, cited a great need for more international cooperation and technical support among them. Given the limited staff and resources of many institutions in the LMB, the success of the proposed network would depend on whether it could offer tools that would provide benefits to network participants. A potential tool discussed at the workshop was a user-friendly, Web-accessible portal and database that could help streamline data entry and storage at the institutional level, as well as facilitate communication and data sharing among institutions. The workshop provided a consensus to establish pilot standardized data collection and database efforts that will be further reviewed by the workshop participants. Overall, workshop participants agreed that this is the type of support that is greatly needed to answer their most pressing questions and to enable local researchers and resource managers to monitor and sustain the valuable and diverse aquatic life of the Mekong River.

Mekong River↗

USGS2011

Seasonal distribution and aerial surveys of mountain goats in Mount Rainier, North Cascades, and Olympic National Parks, Washington

We described the seasonal distribution of Geographic Positioning System (GPS)-collared mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) in Mount Rainier, North Cascades, and Olympic National Parks to evaluate aerial survey sampling designs and provide general information for park managers. This work complemented a companion study published elsewhere of aerial detection biases of mountain goat surveys in western Washington. Specific objectives reported here were to determine seasonal and altitudinal movements, home range distributions, and temporal dynamics of mountain goat movements in and out of aerial survey sampling frames established within each park. We captured 25 mountain goats in Mount Rainier (9), North Cascades (5), and Olympic (11) National Parks, and fitted them with GPS-collars programmed to obtain 6-8 locations daily. We obtained location data on 23 mountain goats for a range of 39-751 days from 2003 to 2008. Altitudinal distributions of GPS-collared mountain goats varied individually and seasonally, but median altitudes used by individual goats during winter ranged from 817 to 1,541 meters in Olympic and North Cascades National Parks, and 1,215 to 1,787 meters in Mount Rainier National Park. Median altitudes used by GPS-collared goats during summer ranged from 1,312 to 1,819 meters in Olympic and North Cascades National Parks, and 1,780 to 2,061 meters in Mount Rainier National Park. GPS-collared mountain goats generally moved from low-altitude winter ranges to high-altitude summer ranges between June 11 and June 19 (range April 24-July 3) and from summer to winter ranges between October 26 and November 9 (range September 11-December 23). Seasonal home ranges (95 percent of adaptive kernel utilization distribution) of males and female mountain goats were highly variable, ranging from 1.6 to 37.0 kilometers during summers and 0.7 to 9.5 kilometers during winters. Locations of GPS-collared mountain goats were almost 100 percent within the sampling frame used for mountain goat surveys in Mount Rainier National Park, whereas generally greater than 80 and greater than 60 percent of locations were within sampling units delineated in North Cascades and Olympic National Parks, respectively. Presence of GPS-collared mountain goats within the sampling frame of Olympic National Park varied by diurnal period (midday versus crepuscular), survey season (July versus September), and the interaction of diurnal period and survey season. Aerial surveys conducted in developing a sightability model for mountain goat aerial surveys indicated mean detection probabilities of 0.69, 0.76, and 0.87 in North Cascades, Olympic, and Mount Rainier National Parks, respectively. Higher detection probabilities in Mount Rainier likely reflected larger group sizes and more open habitat conditions than in North Cascades and Olympic National Parks. Use of sightability models will reduce biases of population estimates in each park, but resulting population estimates must still be considered minimum population estimates in Olympic and North Cascades National Parks because the current sampling frames do not encompass those populations completely. Because mountain goats were reliably present within the sampling frame in Mount Rainier National Park, we found no compelling need to adjust mountain goat survey boundaries in that park. Expanding survey coverage in North Cascades and Olympic National Parks to more reliably encompass the altitudinal distribution of mountain goats during summer would enhance population estimation accuracy in the future. Lowering the altitude boundary of mountain goat survey units by as little as 100 meters to 1,425 meters in Olympic National Park would increase mountain goat presence within the survey and reduce variation in counts related to movements of mountain goats outside the survey boundaries.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2008

WaterWatch — Maps, graphs, and tables of current, recent, and past streamflow conditions

WaterWatch (http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/) is a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) World Wide Web site that displays maps, graphs, and tables describing real-time, recent, and past streamflow conditions for the United States. The real-time information generally is updated on an hourly basis. WaterWatch provides streamgage-based maps that show the location of more than 3,000 long-term (30 years or more) USGS streamgages; use colors to represent streamflow conditions compared to historical streamflow; feature a point-and-click interface allowing users to retrieve graphs of stream stage (water elevation) and flow; and highlight locations where extreme hydrologic events, such as floods and droughts, are occurring. The streamgage-based maps show streamflow conditions for real-time, average daily, and 7-day average streamflow. The real-time streamflow maps highlight flood and high flow conditions. The 7-day average streamflow maps highlight below-normal and drought conditions. WaterWatch also provides hydrologic unit code (HUC) maps. HUC-based maps are derived from the streamgage-based maps and illustrate streamflow conditions in hydrologic regions. These maps show average streamflow conditions for 1-, 7-, 14-, and 28-day periods, and for monthly average streamflow; highlight regions of low flow or hydrologic drought; and provide historical runoff and streamflow conditions beginning in 1901. WaterWatch summarizes streamflow conditions in a region (state or hydrologic unit) in terms of the long-term typical condition at streamgages in the region. Summary tables are provided along with time-series plots that depict variations through time. WaterWatch also includes tables of current streamflow information and locations of flooding.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS1996

A model for field toxicity tests

Toxicity tests conducted under field conditions present an interesting challenge for statistical modelling. In contrast to laboratory tests, the concentrations of potential toxicants are not held constant over the test. In addition, the number and identity of toxicants that belong in a model as explanatory factors are not known and must be determined through a model selection process. We present one model to deal with these needs. This model takes the record of mortalities to form a multinomial distribution in which parameters are modelled as products of conditional daily survival probabilities. These conditional probabilities are in turn modelled as logistic functions of the explanatory factors. The model incorporates lagged values of the explanatory factors to deal with changes in the pattern of mortalities over time. The issue of model selection and assessment is approached through the use of generalized information criteria and power divergence goodness-of-fit tests. These model selection criteria are applied in a cross-validation scheme designed to assess the ability of a model to both fit data used in estimation and predict data deleted from the estimation data set. The example presented demonstrates the need for inclusion of lagged values of the explanatory factors and suggests that penalized likelihood criteria may not provide adequate protection against overparameterized models in model selection.

Environmetrics↗

USGS2023

Support for the fasting endurance hypothesis of partial migration in a nearshore seabird

Partial migration occurs when only a fraction of a population migrates instead of all individuals. Considered an evolutionary precursor to full migration, understanding why some individuals choose to undertake migration while others do not may serve to inform general migratory theory. While several hypotheses currently exist for explaining the maintenance of partial migration, empirical support for many is limited. To address this gap, we analyzed GPS data acquired from brown pelicans ( Pelecanus occidentalis ; n = 74), a partially migratory seabird, nesting on six colonies in the South Atlantic Bight over the course of four autumn migrations. We estimated that approximately 74% of pelicans nesting within the study area may be migratory on an annual basis, with the remainder staying within the surrounding marine ecoregion year-round. Mean date of migration initiation was 9 November, although movements occurred from September to December. Results from Cox's proportional hazards modeling indicated significant positive and negative effects of sea surface temperatures and body condition on migration rate, respectively. We suggest that the ontogenetic migration of the primary forage species of brown pelicans from estuarine to pelagic environments causes a seasonal reduction in prey and that pelicans in poor body condition are unable to meet the energetic demands potentially associated with this decrease in prey availability (i.e., the fasting endurance hypothesis of partial migration). Although we did not find evidence for a density-dependent migratory response, the effects of intraspecific competition on migration in pelicans also appear to warrant consideration.

Georgia, South Carolina↗

USGS1987

The chemical, physical and structural properties of estuarine ice in Great Bay, New Hampshire

The purpose of this study was to provide general information on the chemical, physical and structural properties of estuarine ice and show how it compares with sea ice found at higher latitudes in order to determine whether the ice in Great Bay can be used as an analog in the study of arctic sea ice. Ice cores and water samples were collected during the 1983–1984 winter season at Adams Point in Great Bay, New Hampshire. Concentrations of chloride, nitrogen (as nitrate and nitrite), bromide, phosphate, sulfate and silicate were determined for samples chosen on the basis of identifiable stratigraphic layers (i.e. bubble size and shape, sediment layers, etc.). Similarities between ice formation in Great Bay and those in the arctic regions include the nature of the freezing process and the ice types produced. In addition, the distribution and concentration of chemical constituents were found to be similar to those observed in arctic sea ice. Factors affecting the chemistry of the ice in Great Bay include rainfall during the freezing season, the presence of sediment layers in the ice cores, the nature of incorporation of brine into the crystal structure of the ice and the drainage of brine.

New Hampshire↗

USGS2023

Strategic monitoring to minimize misclassification errors from conservation status assessments

Classifying species into risk categories is a ubiquitous process in conservation decision-making affecting regulatory procedures, conservation actions, and guiding resource allocation at global, national, and regional scales. However, monitoring programs often do not provide data required for accurate species classification decisions. Misclassification can lead to otherwise preventable species extinctions, undue regulatory burden, poor allocation of limited conservation resources, and can undermine species conservation legislation. We developed a framework that evaluates monitoring designs based on the ability to correctly inform a species classification decision, where minimizing the risk of misclassification is the central objective. We further evaluated monitoring designs by calculating the expected value of information and explored the relationship between statistical power to detect trends and misclassification. Our measure of misclassification risk, which can be tailored to the decision context, clarified the costs of over- and under-protection. High power to detect trends often corresponded to accurate species classification decisions. However, in several scenarios power to detect trends was low but the ability to correctly inform the classification decision was high. The value of information generally increased with monitoring intensity and quantified the tradeoffs between spatial and temporal replication. Our framework allows managers to assess monitoring program performance with direct implications for conservation decision-making. Our framework affords practitioners an opportunity to evaluate the effectiveness of monitoring programs a priori focusing on improving conservation decisions. We demonstrate that prioritizing monitoring to minimize misclassification errors can improve monitoring efficiency and conservation decision-making with considerable practical applications and benefits for species conservation.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2009

Assessing the landscape context and conversion risk of protected areas using satellite data products

Since the establishment of the first national park (Yellowstone National Park in 1872) and the first wildlife refuge (Pelican Island in 1903), dramatic changes have occurred in both ecological and cultural landscapes across the U.S. The ability of these protected areas to maintain current levels of biodiversity depend, at least in part, on the integrity of the surrounding landscape. Our objective was to quantify and compare the extent and pattern of natural land cover, risk of conversion, and relationships with demographic and economic variables in counties near National Park Service units and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service refuges with those counties distant from either type of protected area in the coterminous United States. Our results indicate that landscapes in counties within 10 km of both parks and refuges and those within 10 km of just parks were more natural, more intact, and more protected than those in counties within 10 km of just refuges and counties greater than 10 km from either protected area system. However, they also had greater human population density and change in population, indicating potential conversion risk since the percent of landscape protected averaged < 5% in both groups and human population dynamics are primary drivers of change in many landscapes. Conversion outweighed protection by at least two times (Conservation Risk Index > 2) in 76% of counties near both parks and refuges, 81% of counties near just parks, 91% of counties near just refuges, and 93% of distant counties. Thirteen percent of counties in the coterminous U.S. had moderate to high amounts of natural land cover (> 60%), low protection (< 20%), and the greatest change in population (> 20%). Although these areas are not the most critically endangered, they represent the greatest conservation opportunity, need, and urgency. Our approach is based on national level metrics that are simple, general, informative, and can be understood by broad audiences and by policy makers and managers to assess the health of lands surrounding parks and refuges. Regular monitoring of these metrics with satellite data products in counties surrounding protected areas provides a consistent, national level assessment of management opportunities and potentially adverse changes on adjacent lands.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

USGS2007

Relating low‐flow characteristics to the base flow recession time constant at partial record stream gauges

Base flow recession information is helpful for regional estimation of low‐flow characteristics. However, analyses that exploit such information generally require a continuous record of streamflow at the estimation site to characterize base flow recession. Here we propose a simple method for characterizing base flow recession at low‐flow partial record stream gauges (i.e., sites with very few streamflow measurements under low‐streamflow conditions), and we use that characterization as the basis for a practical new approach to low‐flow regression. In a case study the introduction of a base flow recession time constant, estimated from a single pair of strategically timed streamflow measurements, approximately halves the root‐mean‐square estimation error relative to that of a conventional drainage area regression. Additional streamflow measurements can be used to reduce the error further.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2006

Remote sensing and geophysical investigations of glacial buried valleys in northeastern Kansas

Aquifers found in glacial buried valleys are a major source of good-quality ground water in northeastern Kansas. The extent and character of many of these deposits are not precisely known, so a detailed study of the buried valleys was undertaken. Test drilling, Landsat imagery, shallow-earth temperature measurements, seismic refraction, surface electrical resistivity, and gravity data were used to evaluate two sites in Nemaha and Jefferson Counties. Tonal patterns on springtime Landsat imagery and winter/summer anomalies in shallow-earth temperatures were quick and inexpensive methods for locating some glacial buried aquifers and suggested areas for more intensive field studies. Reversed seismic refraction and resistivity surveys were generally reliable indicators of the presence or absence of glacial buried valleys, with most depth determinations being within 25% of test-drilling results. The effectiveness of expensive test-hole drilling was greatly increased by integrating remote sensing, shallow-earth temperature, seismic, and resistivity techniques in the two buried valley test areas. A gravity profile allowed precise definition of the extent of one of the channels after the other techniques had been used for general information.

Kansas↗

USGS2007

Variability in measured bedload-transport rates

Variability in bedload-transport rates during constant water discharge is an inherent part of the bedload-transport process. Although this variability has been measured extensively in the laboratory, similar information generally is not available from field measurements. During a four-day period of nearly constant water discharge, four sets of consecutively collected bedload samples, ranging from 43 to 120 samples, were obtained at the same cross channel location using a standard 65-pound Helley-Smith bedload sampler. When the measured transport rates are converted to dimensionless rates and plotted as cumulative frequency distributions, they show good agreement with a theoretical probability distribution function of rates derived for the case of ripples on dunes. The distributions show that during constant water discharge individual measured rates at a fixed point vary from near zero to four times the mean rate, and 60 percent of the sampled rates will be less than the mean. Because of the large variation in transport rates that occurs at every location in the cross section, many observations are required to establish an accurate estimate of the mean rate at any given location.

Tennessee↗

USGS2021

Developing species-age cohorts from forest inventory and analysis data to parameterize a forest landscape model

Simulating long-term, landscape level changes in forest composition requires estimates of stand age to initialize succession models. Detailed stand ages are rarely available, and even general information on stand history often is lacking. We used data from USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database to estimate broad age classes for a forested landscape to simulate changes in landscape composition and structure relative to climate change at Fort Drum, a 43,000 ha U.S. Army installation in northwestern New York. Using simple linear regression, we developed relationships between tree diameter and age for FIA site trees from the host and adjacent ecoregions and applied those relationships to forest stands at Fort Drum. We observed that approximately half of the variation in age was explained by diameter breast height (DBH) across all species studied ( r 2 = 0.42 for sugar maple Acer saccharum to 0.63 for white ash Fraxinus americana ). We then used age-diameter relationships from published research on northern hardwood species to calibrate results from the FIA-based analysis. With predicted stand age, we used tree species life histories and environmental conditions represented by ecological site types to parameterize a stochastic forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) to spatially and temporally model successional changes in forest communities at Fort Drum. Forest stands modeled over 100 years without significant disturbance appeared to reflect expected patterns of increasing dominance by shade-tolerant mesophytic tree species such as sugar maple, red maple ( Acer rubrum ), and eastern hemlock ( Tsuga canadensis ) where soil moisture was sufficient. On drier sandy soils, eastern white pine ( Pinus strobus ), red pine ( P. resinosa ), northern red oak ( Quercus rubra ), and white oak ( Q. alba ) continued to be important components throughout the modeling period with no net loss at the landscape scale. Our results suggest that despite abundant precipitation and relatively low evapotranspiration rates for the region, low soil water holding capacity and fertility may be limiting factors for the spread of mesophytic species on excessively drained soils in the region. Increasing atmospheric temperatures projected for the region could alter moisture regimes for many coarse-textured soils providing a possible mechanism for expansion of xerophytic tree species.

New York↗