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At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

New perspectives on the eruption of 1912 in the valley of ten thousand smokes, Katmai National Park, Alaska

New data extend our understanding of the 1912 eruption, its backfilled vent complex at Novarupta, and magma-storage systems beneath adjacent stratovolcanoes. Initial Plinian rhyolite fallout is confined to a narrow downwind sector, and its maximum thickness may occur as far as 13 km from source. In contrast, the partly contemporaneous rhyolite-rich ash flows underwent relatively low-energy emplacement, their generation evidently being decoupled from the high column. Flow veneers 1-13 m thick on near-vent ridge crests exhibit a general rhyolite-to-andesite sequence like that of the much thicker valley-confined ignimbrite into which they merge downslope. Lithics in both the initial Plinian and the ignimbrite are predominantly fragments of the Jurassic Naknek Formation, which extends from the surface to a depth of ca. 1500 m. Absence of lithics from the underlying sedimentary section limits to < 1.5 km the fragmentation level and the structural depth of the vent, which is thought to be funnel-shaped, flaring shallowly to a surface diameter of 2 km. Overlying the ignimbrite are layers of Plinian dacite fallout, > 100 m thick near source and 10 m thick 3 km away, which dip back into an inner vent <0.5 km wide, nested inside the earlier vent funnel of the ignimbrite. The dacite fallout is poor in Naknek lithics but contains abundant fragments of vitrophyre, most of which was vent-filling, densely welded tuff reejected during later phases of the 3-day eruption. Adjacent to the inner vent, a 225-m-high asymmetrical accumulation of coarse near-vent ejecta is stratigraphically continuous with the regional dacite fallout. Distensional faulting of its crest may reflect spreading related to compaction and welding. Nearby andesite-dacite stratovolcanoes, i.e., Martin, Mageik, Trident, and Katmai, display at least 12 vents that define a linear volcanic front trending N65??E. The 1912 vent and adjacent dacite domes are disposed parallel to the front and ca. 4 km behind it. Mount Griggs, 10 km behind the front, is more potassic than other centers, taps isotopically more depleted source materials, and reflects a wholly independent magmatic plumbing system. Geochemical differences among the stratovolcanoes, characteristically small eruptive volumes ( < 0.1 to 0.4 km3), and the dominance of andesite and low-SiO2 dacite suggest complex crustal reservoirs, not large integrated magma chambers. Linear fractures just outside the 1912 vent strike nearly normal to the volcanic front and may reflect dike transport of magma previously stored beneath Trident 3-5 km away. Caldera collapse at Mount Katmai may have taken place in response to hydraulic transfer of Katmai magma toward Novarupta via reservoir components beneath Trident. The voluminous 1912 eruption (12-15 km3 DRE) was also unusual in producing high-silica rhyolite (6-9 km3 DRE), a composition rare in this arc and on volcanic fronts in general. Isotopic data indicate that rhyolite genesis involved little assimilation of sedimentary rocks, pre-Tertiary plutonic rocks, or hydrothermally altered rocks of any age. Trace-element data suggest nonetheless that the rhyolite contains a nontrivial crustal contribution, most likely partial melts of Late Cenozoic arc-intrusive rocks. Because the three compositions (77%, 66-64.5%, and 61.5-58.5% SiO2) that intermingled in 1912 vented both concurrently and repeatedly (after eruptive pauses hours in duration), the compositional gaps between them must have been intrinsic to the reservoir, not merely effects of withdrawal dynamics. ?? 1987 Springer-Verlag.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

Mapping forest canopy gaps using air-photo interpretation and ground surveys

Canopy gaps are important structural components of forested habitats for many wildlife species. Recent improvements in the spatial accuracy of geographic information system tools facilitate accurate mapping of small canopy features such as gaps. We compared canopy-gap maps generated using ground survey methods with those derived from air-photo interpretation. We found that maps created from high-resolution air photos were more accurate than those created from ground surveys. Errors of omission were 25.6% for the ground-survey method and 4.7% for the air-photo method. One variable of inter est in songbird research is the distance from nests to gap edges. Distances from real and simulated nests to gap edges were longer using the ground-survey maps versus the air-photo maps, indicating that gap omission could potentially bias the assessment of spatial relationships. If research or management goals require location and size of canopy gaps and specific information about vegetation structure, we recommend a 2-fold approach. First, canopy gaps can be located and the perimeters defined using 1:15,000-scale or larger aerial photographs and the methods we describe. Mapped gaps can then be field-surveyed to obtain detailed vegetation data.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

Holocene vertical displacement on the central segments of the Wasatch fault zone, Utah

Compiled per-event vertical-displacement observations from 17 paleoseismic sites along the six central segments of the Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) highlight possible biases and trends in displacement along the fault. The displacement data are consistent with a model of characteristic-type slip, but anomalous and variable displacements indicate that significant natural variability in displacement occurs. When combined into a composite distribution of displacement, 79% of the data fit within a displacement envelope that shows displacement decreasing in a half-ellipse shape from 1.4-3.5 m near the segment centers to 0.6-2.5 m near the ends. Additionally, displacements normalized by the distance from the segment centers to ends decrease from means of 2.0-3.0 m near the segment centers to 1.3-1.9 m near the ends, consistent with characteristic-type slip termination. Although several paleoseismic sites exhibit repeated, similar displacements, the data are sparse and both low-valued (0.5-0.8 m) and high-valued (4.2-4.7 m) outliers suggest complex strain release, possibly resulting from segment interaction and/or noncharacteristic events. Although a global, normal-fault-type surface-rupture-length (SRL) average-displacement regression underpredicts observed WFZ displacements, the largest displacements per segment correspond well with a SRL maximum-displacement regression. This correlation, as well as moderate variability in SRL- and displacement-based moment magnitude, suggests that the anomalous displacements represent the intrinsic variability in characteristic displacement per segment. Thus, minor variations to the characteristic slip model to account for exceptional upper- and lower-bound displacements, e.g., a hybrid characteristic-variable slip model, may be appropriate for the WFZ. Additional paleoseismic data are necessary to address data gaps and biases, to facilitate more robust tests of earthquake-slip models, and to reduce uncertainty in SRL, displacement, and magnitude.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Prediction of regional broadband strong ground motions using a teleseismic source model of the 18 April 2014 Mw 7.3 Papanoa, Mexico, earthquake

To estimate predicted ground motion from a teleseismic slip model, we use a low‐ and high‐frequency hybrid method to simulate the regional, strong ground motions observed following the 18 April 2014 moment magnitude ( ⁠M w ⁠ ) 7.3 Papanoa, Mexico, earthquake. To generate the regional ground motion at low frequencies (<1 Hz), a teleseismically derived, finite‐fault, kinematic model is used to define the earthquake source, taking into account slip‐model variations identified with a parameter sampling approach that considers possible errors in the fault geometry, the hypocenter depth, and the rupture velocity. A 3D crustal model is used to calculate the low‐frequency ground motions using a finite‐element calculation that includes topography and considers variations in the source model to estimate the uncertainty in the calculations. High frequencies (>1 Hz) are added using a 1D full‐wave propagation code that estimates uncertainties by considering multiple random distributions of slip with different spatial correlation lengths. The synthetic, broadband (0.05–10.0 Hz) ground motions are obtained by combining the low‐ and high‐frequency portions match filtered at 1 Hz. These synthetic ground motions are compared with the regional observations using velocity records, peak ground acceleration, and medians of the orientation‐independent response spectra of the horizontal components (RotD50) calculated at periods of 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 5.0, 7.5, and 10.0 s. The results indicate that ground motions estimated at these periods using our hybrid approach based primarily on a teleseismically derived source model are comparable to the values observed for the 2014 Papanoa earthquake at regional distances. The approach could be used to estimate strong‐motion spectral levels expected for regions with limited local and regional recordings and could also fill in magnitude or distance gaps in ground‐motion prediction relations utilized in the assessment of seismic hazard.

Papanoa↗

Origin of the Gulf of California

The probable cumulative Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic right-lateral strike-slip displacement along the San Andreas fault in central California is 350 miles. The San Andreas and the allied faults into which it branches southward trend longitudinally into the Gulf of California , and the seismicity of the region indicates that the fault system follows the length of the Gulf and enters the Pacific basin south of Baja California . Crustal structure of most of the Gulf is of oceanic type, so that an origin by structural depression of continental rocks is not possible. Tectonic styles north and south of Los Angeles differ greatly. To the north, the Coast Ranges expose thick Upper Cretaceous and Cenozoic sedimentary rocks that were deposited in local basins and deformed tightly and repeatedly. To the south, in the Peninsular Ranges and Baja California , correlative rocks are thin and show little compressive deformation. The California batholith of mid-Cretaceous age and allied crystalline rocks form the basement of Baja California , southwestern Arizona, and northwestern Sonora and probably extend along the coast of mainland Mexico; the Gulf apparently bisects the crystalline belt longitudinally. These features suggest that Baja California initially lay 300 miles to the southeast, against the continental-margin bulge of Jalisco. The Gulf of California may be a pull-apart feature caused by strike-slip displacement plus up to 100 miles of cross-strike separation of the continental plate, subcontinental materials having welled up into the rift gap. The strike-slip motion has a tensional component across the continental margin south of Los Angeles but a compressional component to the north.

Gulf of California↗

Widespread effects of middle Mississippian deformation in the Great Basin of western North America

Stratigraphic analyses in central and eastern Nevada reveal the importance of a deformation event in middle Mississippian time that caused widespread deformation, uplift, and erosion. It occurred between middle Osagean and late Meramecian time and resulted in deposition of both synorogenic and postorogenic sediments. The deformation resulted in east-west shortening, expressed as east-vergent folding and east-directed thrusting; it involved sedimentary rocks of the Antler foredeep as well as strata associated with the Roberts Mountains allochthon. A latest Meramecian to early Chesterian unconformity, with correlative conformable lithofacies changes, postdates this deformation and occurs throughout Nevada. A tectonic highland-created in the middle Mississippian and lasting into the Pennsylvanian and centered in the area west and southwest of Carlin, Nevada- shed sediments eastward across the Antler foreland, burying the unconformity. Postorogenic strata are late Meramecian to early Chesterian at the base and are widespread throughout the Great Basin. The tectonism therefore occurred 20 to 30 m.y. after inception of the Late Devonian Antler orogeny, significantly extending the time span of this orogeny or representing a generally unrecognized orogenic event in the Paleozoic evolution of western North America. We propose a revised stratigraphic nomenclature for Mississippian strata in Nevada, based on detailed age control and the recognition of unconformities. This approach resolves the ambiguity of some stratigraphic names and emphasizes genetic relationships within the upper Paleozoic section. We take advantage of better stratigraphic understanding to propose two new stratigraphic units for southern and eastern Nevada: the middle Mississippian Gap Wash and Late Mississippian Captain Jack Formations.

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗

High-precision 40Ar/39Ar sanidine geochronology of ignimbrites in the Mogollon-Datil volcanic field, southwestern New Mexico

40Ar/39Ar age spectra have been obtained from 85 sanidine separates from 36 ignimbrites and one rhyolitic lava in the latest Eocene-Oligocene Mogollon-Datil volcanic field of southwestern New Mexico. Of the 97 measured age spectra, 94 yield weighted-mean plateau ages each giving single-spectrum 1?? precision of??0.25%-0.4% (??0.07-0.14 Ma). Replicate plateau age determinations for eight different samples show within-sample 1?? precisions averaging ??0.25%. Plateau ages from multiple (n=3-8) samples of individual ignimbrites show 1?? within-unit precision of ??0.1%-0.4% (??0.04-0.13 Ma). This within-unit precision represents a several-fold improvement over published K-Ar data for the same ignimbrites, and is similar to the range of precisions reported from single-crystal laser fusion studies. A further indication of the high precision of unit-mean 40Ar/30Ar ages is their close agreement with independently established stratigraphic order. Two samples failed to meet plateau criteria, apparently due to geologic contamination by older feldspars. Effects of minor contamination are shown by six other samples, which yielded slightly anomalous plateau ages. 40Ar/39Ar plateau ages permit resolution of units differing in age by 0.5% (0.15 Ma) or less. This high resolution, combined with paleomagnetic studies, has helped to correlate ignimbrites among isolated ranges and has allowed development of an integrated timestratigraphic framework for the volcanic field. Mogollon-Datil ignimbrites range in age from 36.2 to 24.3 Ma. Ignimbrite activity was strongly episodic, being confined to four brief (<2.6 m.y.) eruptive episodes separated by 1-3 m.y. gaps. Ignimbrite activity generally tended to migrate from the southeast toward the north and west. ?? 1990 Springer-Verlag.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

Modeling the Holocene slip history of the Wasatch fault (Utah): Coseismic and postseismic Coulomb stress changes and implications for paleoseismicity and seismic hazard

The Wasatch fault zone defines the eastern boundary of the actively extending Basin and Range Province (Utah, western United States) and poses a significant seismic hazard to the metropolitan areas along the Wasatch Range. A wealth of paleoseismological data documents ∼24 surface-rupturing Mw ≥ 7 earthquakes along the Wasatch fault during the past 6400 yr. Here, we simulated the Holocene earthquake sequence on the Wasatch, Oquirrh−Great Salt Lake, and West Valley faults using three-dimensional finite-element forward modeling with the goal to calculate coseismic and postseismic Coulomb stress changes and to evaluate the slip and magnitude of hypothetical present-day and future earthquakes. Our results show that a good fit between modeled and observed paleoevents and time-integrated slip rates can be achieved within the uncertainties of the paleoseismological record and model parameters like the fault geometry. The Coulomb stress change analysis for selected paleoearthquakes showed that maximum positive stress changes are induced on faults located along strike of the source fault, while faults parallel to the source fault are generally located in stress shadow zones. Postseismic viscoelastic relaxation considerably modifies the coseismic stress changes; the resulting transient stress changes are recognizable for more than 100 yr after an earthquake. The modeled present-day state of Coulomb stress changes shows that the Brigham City, Salt Lake City, and Provo segments of the Wasatch fault are prone to failure in a Mw ≥ 6.8 earthquake. Our study shows that simulation of an entire earthquake sequence based on a paleoseismological record is feasible and facilitates identification of possible gaps and inconsistencies in the paleoseismological record. Therefore, forward modeling of earthquake sequences may ultimately contribute to improved seismic hazard estimates.

Utah↗

An assessment of mercury in estuarine sediment and tissue in Southern New Jersey using public domain data

Mercury (Hg) is considered a contaminant of global concern for coastal environments due to its toxicity, widespread occurrence in sediment, and bioaccumulation in tissue. Coastal New Jersey, USA, is characterized by shallow bays and wetlands that provide critical habitat for wildlife but share space with expanding urban landscapes. This study was designed as an assessment of the magnitude and distribution of Hg in coastal New Jersey sediments and critical species using publicly available data to highlight potential data gaps. Mercury concentrations in estuary sediments can exceed 2 &mu;g/g and correlate with concentrations of other metals. Based on existing data, the concentrations of Hg in mussels in southern New Jersey are comparable to those observed in other urbanized Atlantic Coast estuaries. Lack of methylmercury data for sediments, other media, and tissues are data gaps needing to be filled for a clearer understanding of the impacts of Hg inputs to the ecosystem.

New Jersey↗

Obtaining environmental measures to facilitate vertebrate habitat modeling

Published literature generally lacks habitat information needed to adequately model the habitats of most wildlife species at large scales (>1:100,000). We searched in primary and secondary literature for occurrence of several potentially useful habitat measures for 20 species of interest to the Idaho Department of Fish and Game. We found adequate information for modeling only the habitats of certain game species and species of special interest. We suggest that many more researchers could collect simple habitat information regarding vegetation composition and structure, topographic features, soils, temperature, and distance to special landscape features such that current research expenses would not be increased significantly. We recommend that habitat data be consistently reported in peer-reviewed literature or deposited into a central data repository. This will not only help fill the gaps in our current knowledge of wildlife but also place it in a format that is readily accessible by the scientific community.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

Geology and ground-water resources of the Jordan Valley, Utah

The Jordan Valley occupies about 400 square miles in the central part of Salt Lake County in north-central Utah. Salt Lake City, the capital of Utah, is in the northeastern part of the valley. The valley is at the eastern margin of the Basin and range physiographic province, and it is bounded on the northeast, east, south, and west by mountain ranges. The valley is drained by the Jordan River which enters through a water gap in the mountains to the south, flows north, and empties into the Great Salt Lake, which forms the northwestern border of the valley.

Utah↗

South Platte River Basin - Colorado, Nebraska, and Wyoming

The South Platte River Basin was one of 20 study units selected in 1991 for investigation under the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program. One of the initial tasks undertaken by the study unit team was to review the environmental setting of the basin and assemble ancillary data on natural and anthropogenic factors in the basin. The physical, chemical, and biological quality of the water in the South Platte River Basin is explicitly tied to its environmental setting. The resulting water quality is the product of the natural conditions and human factors that make up the environmental setting of the basin. This description of the environmental setting of the South Platte River Basin and its implications to the water quality will help guide the design of the South Platte NAWQA study. Natural conditions such as physiography, climate, geology, and soils affect the ambient water quality while anthropogenic factors such as water use, population, land use and water-management practices can have a pronounced effect on water quality in the basin. The relative effects of mining, urban, and agricultural land- and water-uses on water-quality constituents are not well understood. The interrelation of the surface-water and ground-water systems and the chemical and biological processes that affect the transport of constituents needs to be addressed. Interactions between biological communities and the water resources also should be considered. The NAWQA program and the South Platte River Basin study will provide information to minimize existing knowledge gaps, so that we may better understand the effect these natural conditions and human factors have on the water-quality conditions in the basin, now and in the future.

Water Resources Bulletin↗

Determination of elastic wave velocity and relative hypocenter locations using refracted waves. I. Methodology

An arrival time difference method utilizing refracted arrivals from earthquakes in a homogeneous, layered earth model has been developed for the simultaneous determination of near-source (in situ) velocity and relative locations of earthquakes. The method is particularly applicable when analyzing data from arrays in which most of the recording stations are far (i.e., several focal depths) from a group of events. This iterative scheme locates earthquakes relative to a master event and performs an inversion for in situ velocity using a generalized inverseleast squares estimation procedure. Direct arrivals, when available, may be included to stabilize the inversion and increase the accuracy of the event locations. We tested this scheme on artificial data contaminated by random and systematic arrival time errors, gaps in azimuthal coverage, and inaccuracies in the assumed velocity model. As usual, depth is the least well-resolved hypocenter coordinate, but this scheme yielded accurate locations of most events while converging to the correct velocity model.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Fish community characterization of mid-shelf and shelf-edge mesophotic coral ecosystems in the expanded Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary

The mid to outer continental shelf in the northern Gulf of Mexico is composed of a patchy distribution of coral and rock reefs designated high priority for marine protection. To better understand the influence of deepwater habitat on fish community dynamics and conservation needs, we compared altiphotic-mesophotic transition (20– 40 m), upper mesophotic (40–60 m), and middle mesophotic (60–80 m) fish communities between mid-shelf (Sonnier Bank) and outer-shelf (McGrail Bank) banks from before their inclusion into the Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary. Surveys performed over two years with a remotely operated vehicle indicated that each bank and depth zone had distinct fish communities. Both banks were dominated by planktivores and piscivores, with an increase in depth specialists (e.g., deepwater anthiids and serranids) at the deeper zones surveyed, particularly in middle mesophotic depths at McGrail. An increased frequency of snappers, groupers, and amberjack was observed at Sonnier Bank, predominately in mesophotic depths, indicating the Sonnier Mesophotic Coral Ecosystem as either a hotspot or potential refuge for meso- and apex predators. This study fills a temporal gap in fish community dynamics of these two banks, serving to create a more continuous dataset available to assist in conservation assessments of the Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary.

Texas↗

The 1999 Izmit, Turkey, earthquake: A 3D dynamic stress transfer model of intraearthquake triggering

Before the August 1999 Izmit (Kocaeli), Turkey, earthquake, theoretical studies of earthquake ruptures and geological observations had provided estimates of how far an earthquake might jump to get to a neighboring fault. Both numerical simulations and geological observations suggested that 5 km might be the upper limit if there were no transfer faults. The Izmit earthquake appears to have followed these expectations. It did not jump across any step-over wider than 5 km and was instead stopped by a narrower step-over at its eastern end and possibly by a stress shadow caused by a historic large earthquake at its western end. Our 3D spontaneous rupture simulations of the 1999 Izmit earthquake provide two new insights: (1) the west- to east-striking fault segments of this part of the North Anatolian fault are oriented so as to be low-stress faults and (2) the easternmost segment involved in the August 1999 rupture may be dipping. An interesting feature of the Izmit earthquake is that a 5-km-long gap in surface rupture and an adjacent 25° restraining bend in the fault zone did not stop the earthquake. The latter observation is a warning that significant fault bends in strike-slip faults may not arrest future earthquakes.

Izmit↗

A guide to differences between stochastic point-source and stochastic finite-fault simulations

Why do stochastic point-source and finite-fault simulation models not agree on the predicted ground motions for moderate earthquakes at large distances? This question was posed by Ken Campbell, who attempted to reproduce the Atkinson and Boore (2006) ground-motion prediction equations for eastern North America using the stochastic point-source program SMSIM (Boore, 2005) in place of the finite-source stochastic program EXSIM (Motazedian and Atkinson, 2005) that was used by Atkinson and Boore (2006) in their model. His comparisons suggested that a higher stress drop is needed in the context of SMSIM to produce an average match, at larger distances, with the model predictions of Atkinson and Boore (2006) based on EXSIM; this is so even for moderate magnitudes, which should be well-represented by a point-source model. Why? The answer to this question is rooted in significant differences between point-source and finite-source stochastic simulation methodologies, specifically as implemented in SMSIM (Boore, 2005) and EXSIM (Motazedian and Atkinson, 2005) to date. Point-source and finite-fault methodologies differ in general in several important ways: (1) the geometry of the source; (2) the definition and application of duration; and (3) the normalization of finite-source subsource summations. Furthermore, the specific implementation of the methods may differ in their details. The purpose of this article is to provide a brief overview of these differences, their origins, and implications. This sets the stage for a more detailed companion article, "Comparing Stochastic Point-Source and Finite-Source Ground-Motion Simulations: SMSIM and EXSIM," in which Boore (2009) provides modifications and improvements in the implementations of both programs that narrow the gap and result in closer agreement. These issues are important because both SMSIM and EXSIM have been widely used in the development of ground-motion prediction equations and in modeling the parameters that control observed ground motions.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Quantification of the effects of eustasy, subsidence, and sediment supply on Miocene sequences, mid-Atlantic margin of the United States

We use backstripping to quantify the roles of variations in global sea level (eustasy), subsidence, and sediment supply on the development of the Miocene stratigraphic record of the mid-Atlantic continental margin of the United States (New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland). Eustasy is a primary influence on sequence patterns, determining the global template of sequences (i.e., times when sequences can be preserved) and explaining similarities in Miocene sequence architecture on margins throughout the world. Sequences can be correlated throughout the mid-Atlantic region with Sr-isotopic chronology (??0.6 m.y. to ??1.2 m.y.). Eight Miocene sequences correlate regionally and can be correlated to global ??18O increases, indicating glacioeustatic control. This margin is dominated by passive subsidence with little evidence for active tectonic overprints, except possibly in Maryland during the early Miocene. However, early Miocene sequences in New Jersey and Delaware display a patchwork distribution that is attributable to minor (tens of meters) intervals of excess subsidence. Backstripping quantifies that excess subsidence began in Delaware at ca. 21 Ma and continued until 12 Ma, with maximum rates from ca. 21-16 Ma. We attribute this enhanced subsidence to local flexural response to the progradation of thick sequences offshore and adjacent to this area. Removing this excess subsidence in Delaware yields a record that is remarkably similar to New Jersey eustatic estimates. We conclude that sea-level rise and fall is a first-order control on accommodation providing similar timing on all margins to the sequence record. Tectonic changes due to movement of the crust can overprint the record, resulting in large gaps in the stratigraphic record. Smaller differences in sequences can be attributed to local flexural loading effects, particularly in regions experiencing large-scale progradation. ?? 2006 Geological Society of America.

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗

Envisioning the future of wildlife in a changing climate: Collaborative learning for adaptation planning

Natural resource managers are tasked with assessing the impacts of climate change on conservation targets and developing adaptation strategies to meet agency goals. The complex, transboundary nature of climate change demands the collaboration of scientists, managers, and stakeholders in this effort. To share, integrate, and apply knowledge from these diverse perspectives, we must engage in social learning. In 2009, we initiated a process to engage university researchers and agency scientists and managers in collaborative learning to assess the impacts of climate change on terrestrial fauna in the state of Wisconsin, USA. We constructed conceptual Bayesian networks to depict the influence of climate change, key biotic and abiotic factors, and existing stressors on the distribution and abundance of 3 species: greater prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus cupido ), wood frog ( Lithobates sylvaticus ), and Karner blue butterfly ( Plebejus melissa samuelis ). For each species, we completed a 2-stage expert review that elicited dialogue on information gaps, management opportunities, and research priorities. From our experience, collaborative network modeling proved to be a powerful tool to develop a common vision of the potential impacts of climate change on conservation targets.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗