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Using hydrogeologic context and water budgets to evaluate the potential for groundwater contributions to contaminants in Lake Superior

This study presents a synthesis of the hydrogeology in the U.S. Lake Superior watershed and the contribution of groundwater to the water budget of the U.S. Lake Superior basin. Much of the shoreline of Lake Superior in Minnesota and Michigan is composed of hydrogeologic units contributing very little direct groundwater discharge to the lake. Groundwater in watersheds adjacent to the lake typically flows in short, local flow systems characterized by thin glacial sediments with active groundwater flow in fractured bedrock within the top 60–90 m below land surface. The complex groundwater system in Wisconsin’s Bayfield Peninsula has the largest groundwater reservoir near the lake, characterized by thick sand and gravel glacial deposits and underlying sandstone aquifer. Although these thick sandy glacial deposits are not in direct contact with the lake at the shoreline, groundwater discharge may still be significant via subsurface exposures beyond the shoreline or flow through the underlying sandstone aquifer. Overall, most groundwater in the watershed is contributed as indirect base flow in streams around the lakeshore and comprises about 60 percent of the upland water budget. Direct groundwater flow to the shoreline contributes 2 to 9 percent of the inflow. Identifying possible contamination sources through direct sampling of groundwater would be an inefficient way to detect problems if sources are unknown, particularly for some chemicals of concern such as PFAS, pesticides, PCBs, chloride, and nutrients. Evaluating the chemical characteristics of contamination is also important to consider in evaluating how groundwater may contribute to pollution in Lake Superior.

Lake Superior

Global sea-level contribution from Arctic land ice: 1971 to 2017

The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP) (AMAP, 2017) identifies the Arctic as the largest regional source of land ice to global sea-level rise in the 2003 to 2014 period. Yet, this contextualization ignores the longer perspective from in-situ records of glacier mass balance. Here, using 18 (> 55 °N latitude) glacier and ice cap mass balance series in the 1971 to 2017 period, we develop a semi-empirical estimate of annual sealevel contribution from seven Arctic regions by scaling the in-situ records to GRACE averages. We contend that our estimate represents the most accurate mass balance assessment so far available before the 1992 start of satellite altimetry. We estimate the 1971 to 2017 eustatic sea-level contribution from land ice north of ~55° N to be 23.0±12.3 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE). In all regions, the cumulative sealevel rise curves exhibit an acceleration, especially after 1988. Greenland is the source of 46% of the Arctic sea-level rise contribution (10.6±7.3 mm), followed by Alaska (5.7±2.2 mm), Arctic Canada (3.2±0.7 mm) and the Russian High Arctic (1.5±0.4 mm). Our annual results exhibit co-variability over a 43 year overlap (1971 to 2013) with the alternative dataset of Marzeion et al (2015) (M15). However, we find a 1.36x lower sea-level contribution, in agreement with satellite gravimetry. The IPCC Fifth Assessment report identified constraining the pre-satellite era sealevel budget as a topic of low scientific understanding that we address and specify sealevel contributions coinciding with IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) “present day” (2005-2015) and “recent past” (1986-2005) reference periods. We assess an Arctic land ice loss of 8.3 mm SLE during the recent past and 12.4 mm SLE during the present day.

Environmental Research Letters

Untangling the biological contributions to soil stability in semiarid shrublands

Communities of plants, biological soil crusts (BSCs), and arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi are known to influence soil stability individually, but their relative contributions, interactions, and combined effects are not well understood, particularly in arid and semiarid ecosystems. In a landscape-scale field study we quantified plant, BSC, and AM fungal communities at 216 locations along a gradient of soil stability levels in southern Utah, USA. We used multivariate modeling to examine the relative influences of plants, BSCs, and AM fungi on surface and subsurface stability in a semiarid shrubland landscape. Models were found to be congruent with the data and explained 35% of the variation in surface stability and 54% of the variation in subsurface stability. The results support several tentative conclusions. While BSCs, plants, and AM fungi all contribute to surface stability, only plants and AM fungi contribute to subsurface stability. In both surface and subsurface models, the strongest contributions to soil stability are made by biological components of the system. Biological soil crust cover was found to have the strongest direct effect on surface soil stability (0.60; controlling for other factors). Surprisingly, AM fungi appeared to influence surface soil stability (0.37), even though they are not generally considered to exist in the top few millimeters of the soil. In the subsurface model, plant cover appeared to have the strongest direct influence on soil stability (0.42); in both models, results indicate that plant cover influences soil stability both directly (controlling for other factors) and indirectly through influences on other organisms. Soil organic matter was not found to have a direct contribution to surface or subsurface stability in this system. The relative influence of AM fungi on soil stability in these semiarid shrublands was similar to that reported for a mesic tallgrass prairie. Estimates of effects that BSCs, plants, and AM fungi have on soil stability in these models are used to suggest the relative amounts of resources that erosion control practitioners should devote to promoting these communities. This study highlights the need for system approaches in combating erosion, soil degradation, and arid-land desertification.

Utah

The contribution of rice agriculture to methylmercury in surface waters: A review of data from the Sacramento Valley, California

Methylmercury (MeHg) is a bioaccumulative pollutant produced in and exported from flooded soils, including those used for rice ( Oriza sativa L.) production. Using unfiltered aqueous MeHg data from MeHg monitoring programs in the Sacramento River watershed from 1996 to 2007, we assessed the MeHg contribution from rice systems to the Sacramento River. Using a mixed-effects regression analysis, we compared MeHg concentrations in agricultural drainage water from rice-dominated regions (AgDrain) to MeHg concentrations in the Sacramento and Feather Rivers, both upstream and downstream of AgDrain inputs. We also calculated MeHg loads from AgDrains and the Sacramento and Feather Rivers. Seasonally, MeHg concentrations were higher during November through May than during June through October, but the differences varied by location. Relative to upstream, November through May AgDrain least-squares mean MeHg concentration (0.18 ng L −1 , range 0.15–0.23 ng L −1 ) was 2.3-fold higher, while June through October AgDrain mean concentration (0.097 ng L −1 , range 0.6–1.6 ng L −1 ) was not significantly different from upstream. June through October AgDrain MeHg loads contributed 10.7 to 14.8% of the total Sacramento River MeHg load. Missing flow data prevented calculation of the percent contribution of AgDrains in November through May. At sites where calculation was possible, November through May loads made up 70 to 90% of the total annual load. Elevated flow and MeHg concentration in November through May both contribute to the majority of the AgDrain MeHg load occurring during this period. Methylmercury reduction efforts should target elevated November through May MeHg concentrations in AgDrains. However, our findings suggest that the contribution and environmental impact of rice is an order of magnitude lower than previous studies in the California Yolo Bypass.

California

Development of simulated groundwater-contributing areas to selected streams, ponds, coastal water bodies, and production wells in the Plymouth-Carver region and Cape Cod, Massachusetts

Introduction The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in support of the Massachusetts Estuaries Project (MEP), delineated groundwater-contributing areas to various hydrologic receptors including ponds, streams, and coastal water bodies throughout southeastern Massachusetts, including portions of the Plymouth-Carver aquifer system and all of Cape Cod. These contributing areas were delineated over a 6-year period from 2003 through 2008 by using previously published regional USGS groundwater-flow models for the Plymouth-Carver region (Masterson and others, 2009), the Sagamore (western) and Monomoy (eastern) flow lenses of Cape Cod (Walter and Whealan, 2005), and lower Cape Cod (Masterson, 2004). The original USGS groundwater-contributing areas were subsequently revised in some locations by the MEP to remove modeling artifacts or to make the contributing areas more consistent with site-specific hydrologic conditions without further USGS review. This report describes the process used to create the USGS groundwater-contributing areas and provides these model results in their original format in a single, publicly accessible publication.

Massachusetts

Contributing recharge areas, groundwater travel time, and groundwater quality of the Missouri River alluvial aquifer near the Independence, Missouri, well field, 1997-2008

The City of Independence, Missouri, operates a well field in the Missouri River alluvial aquifer. Contributing recharge areas (CRA) were last determined for the well field in 1996. Since that time, eight supply wells have been installed in the area north of the Missouri River and well pumpage has changed for the older supply wells. The change in pumping has altered groundwater flow and substantially changed the character of the CRA and groundwater travel times to the supply wells. The U.S Geological Survey, in a cooperative study with the City of Independence, Missouri, simulated steady-state groundwater flow for 2007 well pumpage, average annual river stage, and average annual recharge. Particle-tracking analysis was used to determine the CRA for supply wells and monitoring wells, and the travel time from recharge areas to supply wells, recharge areas to monitoring wells, and monitoring wells to supply wells. The simulated CRA for the well field is elongated in the upstream direction and extends to both sides of the Missouri River. Groundwater flow paths and recharge areas estimated for monitoring wells indicate the origin of water to each monitoring well, the travel time of that water from the recharge area, the flow path from the vicinity of each monitoring well to a supply well, and the travel time from the monitoring well to the supply well. Monitoring wells 14a and 14b have the shortest groundwater travel time from their contributing recharge area of 0.30 years and monitoring well 29a has the longest maximum groundwater travel time from its contributing recharge area of 1,701 years. Monitoring well 22a has the shortest groundwater travel time of 0.5 day to supply well 44 and monitoring well 3b has the longest maximum travel time of 31.91 years to supply well 10. Water-quality samples from the Independence groundwater monitoring well network were collected from 1997 to 2008 by USGS personnel during ongoing annual sampling within the 10-year contributing recharge area (CRA) of the Independence well field. Statistical summaries and the spatial and temporal variability of water quality in the Missouri River alluvial aquifer near the Independence well field were characterized from analyses of 598 water samples. Water-quality constituent groups include dissolved oxygen and physical properties, nutrients, major ions and trace elements, wastewater indicator compounds, fuel compounds, and total benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX), alachlor, and atrazine. The Missouri Secondary Maximum Contaminant Level (SMCL) for iron was exceeded in almost all monitoring wells. The Missouri Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) for arsenic was exceeded 32 times in samples from monitoring wells. The MCL for barium was exceeded five times in samples from one monitoring well. The SMCL for manganese was exceeded 160 times in samples from all monitoring wells and the combined well-field sample. The most frequently detected wastewater indicator compounds were N,N-diethyl-meta-toluamide (DEET), phenol, caffeine, and metolachlor. The most frequently detected fuel compounds were toluene and benzene. Alachlor was detected in 22 samples and atrazine was detected in 37 samples and the combined well-field sample. The MCL for atrazine was exceeded in one sample from one monitoring well. Samples from monitoring wells with median concentrations of total inorganic nitrogen larger than 1 milligram per liter (mg/L) are located near agricultural land and may indicate that agricultural land practices are the source of nitrogen to groundwater. Largest median values of specific conductance; total inorganic nitrogen; dissolved calcium, magnesium, sodium, iron, arsenic, manganese, bicarbonate, and sulfate and detections of wastewater indicator compounds generally were in water samples from monitoring wells with CRAs that intersect the south bank of the Missouri River. Zones of higher specific conductance were located just upstream from the Independence well field at south-bank outfalls from wastewater treatment plants, the Blue River, and the south bank of the Missouri River near the closed oil refinery. The long-term presence of these south-bank outfalls and the large specific conductance indicate that the surface water at the south bank of the Missouri River near the Independence well field may have consistently higher dissolved solids and nutrients that can be induced into the aquifer by pumping. Large median concentrations of sodium and chloride from samples from monitoring wells may be the result of road salt use on State Highway 291 or from Mill Creek, which drains the uplands south of the Independence well field. Large median concentrations of arsenic in samples from some monitoring well nests are most likely associated with dissolution of iron and sulfide minerals and fluctuation between oxidizing and reducing conditions. Largest median concentrations for arsenic are in the shallow depth interval where fluctuations between oxidizing and reducing conditions occur. Median concentrations of iron are large in all monitoring wells and are most likely caused by the interaction between fluctuating oxidizing and reducing conditions and siderite and ferric hydroxide. Spatial and temporal trends are not evident from the fuel compounds or total BTEX sample results. Alachlor and atrazine were detected in most monitoring wells and atrazine was detected more often than alachlor. The source of alachlor and atrazine in groundwater near the Independence well field is most likely from nearby agricultural land management practices and (or) the Missouri River. Many of the samples from monitoring wells with alachlor or atrazine detections greater than 10 percent have contributing recharge areas that intersect either agricultural land or the Missouri River bed.

Missouri

Groundwater contributions of flow, nitrate, and dissolved organic carbon to the lower San Joaquin River, California, 2006-08

The influence of groundwater on surface-water quality in the San Joaquin River, California, was examined for a 59-mile reach from the confluence with Salt Slough to Vernalis. The primary objective of this study was to quantify the rate of groundwater discharged to the lower San Joaquin River and the contribution of nitrate and dissolved organic carbon concentrations to the river. Multiple lines of evidence from four independent approaches were used to characterize groundwater contributions of nitrogen and dissolved organic carbon. Monitoring wells (in-stream and bank wells), streambed synoptic surveys (stream water and shallow groundwater), longitudinal profile surveys by boat (continuous water-quality parameters in the stream), and modeling (MODFLOW and VS2DH) provided a combination of temporal, spatial, quantitative, and qualitative evidence of groundwater contributions to the river and the associated quality. Monitoring wells in nested clusters in the streambed (in-stream wells) and on both banks (bank wells) along the river were monitored monthly from September 2006 to January 2009. Nitrate concentrations in the bank wells ranged from less than detection—that is, less than 0.01 milligrams per liter (mg/L) as nitrogen (N)—to approximately 13 mg/L as N. Nitrate was not detected at 17 of 26 monitoring wells during the study period. Dissolved organic carbon concentrations among monitoring wells were highly variable, but they generally ranged from 1 to 4 mg/L. In a previous study, 14 bank wells were sampled once in 1988 following their original installation. With few exceptions, specific conductivity and nitrate concentrations measured in this study were virtually identical to those measured 20 years ago. Streambed synoptic measurements were made by using a temporarily installed drive-point piezometer at 113 distinct transects across the stream during 4 sampling events. Nitrate concentrations exceeded the detection limit of 0.01 mg/L as N in 5 percent of groundwater samples collected from the in-stream wells as part of the synoptic surveys. Only 7 of the 113 cross-sectional transects had nitrate concentrations greater than 1 mg/L as N. In contrast, surface waters in the San Joaquin River tended to have nitrate concentrations in the 1–3 mg/L as N range. A zone of lower oxygen (less than 2 mg/L) in the streambed could limit nitrate contributions from regional groundwater flow because nitrate can be converted to nitrogen gas within this zone. Appreciable concentrations of ammonium (average concentration was 1.92 mg/L as N, and 95th percentile was 10.34 mg/L as N) in the shallow groundwater, believed to originate from anoxic mineralization of streambed sediments, could contribute nitrogen to the overlying stream as nitrate following in-stream nitrification, however. Dissolved organic carbon concentrations were highly variable in the shallow groundwater below the river (1 to 6 ft below streambed) and generally ranged between 1 and 5 mg/L, but had maximum concentrations in the 15–25 mg/L range. The longitudinal profile surveys were not particularly useful in identifying groundwater discharge areas. However, the longitudinal approach described in this report was useful as a baseline survey of measured water-quality parameters and for identifying tributary inflows that affect surface-water concentrations of nitrate. Results of the calibrated MODFLOW model indicated that the simulated groundwater discharge rate was approximately 1.0 cubic foot per second per mile (cfs/mi), and the predominant horizontal groundwater flow direction between the deep bank wells was westward beneath the river. The modeled (VS2DH) flux values (river gain versus river loss) were calculated for the irrigation and non-irrigation season, and these fluxes were an order of magnitude less than those from MODFLOW. During the irrigation season, the average river gain was 0.11 cfs/mi, and the average river loss was −0.05 cfs/mi. During the non-irrigation season, the average river gain was 0.10 cfs/mi, and the average river loss was -0.08 cfs/mi. Information on groundwater interactions and water quality collected for this study was used to estimate loads of nitrate and dissolved organic carbon from the groundwater to the San Joaquin River. Estimated loads of dissolved inorganic nitrogen and dissolved organic carbon were calculated by using concentrations measured during four streambed synoptic surveys and the estimated groundwater discharge rate to the San Joaquin River from MODFLOW of 1 cfs/mi. The estimated groundwater loads to the San Joaquin River for dissolved inorganic nitrogen and dissolved organic carbon were 300 and 350 kilograms per day, respectively. These loads represent 9 and 7 percent, respectively, of the estimated instantaneous surface-water loads for dissolved inorganic nitrogen and dissolved organic carbon at the most downstream site, Vernalis, measured during the four streambed synoptic surveys.

California

Simulation of zones of groundwater contribution to wells south of the Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant in Bethpage, New York

A steady-state three-dimensional groundwater-flow model that simulates present conditions was coupled with the particle-tracking program MODPATH to delineate zones of contribution to wells pumping from the Magothy aquifer near a chlorinated volatile organic compound (VOC) plume. This modeling was part of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Naval Facilities Engineering Command to delineate groundwater near the Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant in Bethpage, New York. Because rates of advection within the coarse-grained sediments typically exceed 0.1 foot per day, transport by dispersion and (or) diffusion was assumed to be negligible. Resulting zones of contribution are complex shapes, influenced by hydrogeologic features including confining beds and a basal gravel zone, and the interplay of nearby hydrologic stresses. The use of two particle tracking techniques identified zones of contribution to wells. Particles are backtracked from pumping well screens, and particles are forward tracked from the location of a VOC plume, as defined by surfaces of equal total VOC concentration. During any period of 5 years or less, about 1 to 3 percent of particles backtracked from pumping wells within a focus area intersected the 5-part per billion (ppb) VOC plume shell, indicating that the vast majority of particles were not sourced from the plume. During 5 years or less, none of the particles backtracked from pumping wells intersected the 50-ppb VOC plume shell. Forward-tracking techniques identified the fate of water within the VOC plume after 5 years as it moves toward ultimate well capture and (or) discharge to model constant head and drain boundaries. Out of 4,813 forward tracked particles started within the 50-ppb VOC plume shell, 1 forward-tracked particle was captured by well ANY8480. Out of 22,958 forward tracked particles started within the 5-ppb VOC plume shell, 100 were captured by production wells (less than 1 percent). The subset of forward pathlines that represent well plume capture are similar in number and shape to those of backtracked pathlines. Model simulations were conducted to assess uncertainties and improve understanding of how variability in hydraulic properties, pumpage rates, and maximum particle traveltime affect delineation of zones of contribution. By use of driller’s’ logs, a transitional probability approach generated nine alternative realizations of heterogeneity within the Magothy aquifer to assess uncertainty in model representation. Fine-grained sediments with low hydraulic conductivity were realized as laterally discontinuous, thickening towards the south, and comprising about 27 percent of the total aquifer volume within the transitional probability subgrid. Model simulations with alternative pumpage rates, porosity terms, and alternative maximum particle traveltime were also used to demonstrate how the size and shape of zones of contribution may vary.

New York

Estimation and comparison of potential runoff-contributing areas in Kansas using topographic, soil, and land-use information

Digital topographic, soil, and land-use information was used to estimate potential runoff-contributing areas in Kansas. The results were used to compare 91 selected subbasins representing slope, soil, land-use, and runoff variability across the State. Potential runoff-contributing areas were estimated collectively for the processes of infiltration-excess and saturation-excess overland flow using a set of environmental conditions that represented, in relative terms, very high, high, moderate, low, very low, and extremely low potential for runoff. Various rainfall-intensity and soil-permeability values were used to represent the threshold conditions at which infiltration-excess overland flow may occur. Antecedent soil-moisture conditions and a topographic wetness index (TWI) were used to represent the threshold conditions at which saturation-excess overland flow may occur. Land-use patterns were superimposed over the potential runoff-contributing areas for each set of environmental conditions. Results indicated that the very low potential-runoff conditions (soil permeability less than or equal to 1.14 inches per hour and TWI greater than or equal to 14.4) provided the best statewide ability to quantitatively distinguish subbasins as having relatively high, moderate, or low potential for runoff on the basis of the percentage of potential runoff-contributing areas within each subbasin. The very low and (or) extremely low potential-runoff conditions (soil permeability less than or equal to 0.57 inch per hour and TWI greater than or equal to 16.3) provided the best ability to qualitatively compare potential for runoff among areas within individual subbasins. The majority of subbasins with relatively high potential for runoff are located in the eastern half of the State where soil permeability is generally less and precipitation is typically greater. The ability to distinguish subbasins as having relatively high, moderate, or low potential for runoff was possible mostly due to the variability of soil permeability across the State. The spatial distribution of potential contributing areas, in combination with the superimposed land-use patterns, may be used to help identify and prioritize subbasin areas for the implementation of best-management practices to manage runoff and meet Federally mandated total maximum daily load requirements.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Simulation of ground-water flow and delineation of areas contributing recharge within the Mt. Simon-Hinckley aquifer to well fields in the Prairie Island Indian Community, Minnesota

The Prairie Island Indian Community in east-central Minnesota uses ground water from the Mt. Simon-Hinckley aquifer as its source of water supply. Tribal officials implemented a Source Water Protection Program to protect the quality of this water. Areas of contributing recharge were delineated for two community well fields. At well field A are two wells 325 m apart, and at well field B are two wells 25 m apart. A steady state single layer, two-dimensional ground-water flow model constructed with the computer program MODFLOW,combined with the particle-tracking computer program MODPATH, was used to track water particles (upgradient) from the two well fields. A withdrawal rate of 625 m 3 /d was simulated for each well field. The ground-water flow paths delineated areas of contributing recharge that are 0.38 and 0.65 km 2 based on 10- and 50-year travel times, respectively. The flow paths that define these areas extend for maximum distances of about 350 and 450 m, respectively, from the wells. At well field A the area of contributing recharge was delineated for each well as separate withdrawal points. At well field B the area of contributing recharge was delineated for the two wells as a single withdrawal point. Delineation of areas of contributing recharge to the well fields from land surface would require construction of a multi-layer ground-water flow model.

Minnesota, Wisconsin

Characteristics of and Areas Contributing Recharge to Public-Supply Springs in Massachusetts

The geohydrologic and physical characteristics were determined for 28 public-supply springs, 27 of which are in western Massachusetts. Discharge ranged from zero at various small intermittent springs to more than 240 gallons per minute at Waubeeka Springs in Williamstown, Massachusetts. To determine the annual variability of spring discharge, discharge from 12 springs was measured during different seasonal conditions from June 2001 to November 2002, and the discharge from Red Mill Spring in Clarksburg, Massachusetts was recorded continuously from April 2002 to November 2002. The area contributing recharge to each spring was delineated on the basis of the geohydrologic conditions determined from reconnaissance investigations; these areas ranged from 0.010 to 0.682 square mile. Ground-water recharge, estimated on the basis of average discharge and the areas contributing recharge, ranged from 0.5 to 24.4 inches per year. High ground-water recharge rates for some of the high-discharge springs indicate that the areas contributing recharge for these springs may be too small. Detailed water-table mapping in the vicinity of two low-discharge springs indicates that the area contributing recharge to some of the smaller springs may be smaller than the area indicated by reconnaissance investigation. Monthly flow durations and low flow statistics were determined for the index streamflow-gaging stations for a 25-year period from 1976 to 2000. Annual hydrographs were prepared for each index station from median streamflows at the 50-percent monthly flow duration, normalized by drainage area. A median monthly flow of 1 ft3/s/mi2 was used to split hydrographs into a high-flow period (November?May), and a low-flow period (June?October). The hydrographs were used to classify index stations into groups with similar median monthly flow durations. Index stations were divided into four regional groups, roughly paralleling the coast, to characterize streamflows for November to May; and into two groups, on the basis of base-flow index and percentage of sand and gravel in the contributing area, for June to October.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

2012 National Park visitor spending effects: economic contributions to local communities, states, and the nation

The National Park Service (NPS) manages the nation's most iconic destinations that attract millions of visitors from across the nation and around the world. Trip-related spending by NPS visitors generates and supports a considerable amount of economic activity within park gateway communities. This economic effects analysis measures how NPS visitor spending cycles through local economies, generating business sales and supporting jobs and income. In 2012, the National Park System received over 282 million recreation visits. NPS visitors spent $14.7 billion in local gateway regions (defined as communities within 60 miles of a park). The contribution of this spending to the national economy was 243 thousand jobs, $9.3 billion in labor income, $15.8 billion in value added, and $26.8 billion in output. The lodging sector saw the highest direct contributions with more than 40 thousand jobs and $4.5 billion in output directly contributed to local gateway economies nationally. The sector with the next greatest direct contributions was restaurants and bars, with 51 thousand jobs and $3 billion in output directly contributed to local gateway economies nationally. This 2012 analysis marks a major revision to the NPS visitor spending effects analyses, with the development of a new visitor spending effects model (VSE model) that replaces the former Money Generation Model (MGM2). Many of the hallmarks and processes of the MGM2 model are preserved in the new VSE model, but the new model makes significant strides in improving the accuracy and transparency of the analysis. Because of this change from the MGM2 model to the VSE model, estimates from this year’s analysis are not directly comparable to previous analyses.

Natural Resource Report

2013 National Park visitor spending effects: economic contributions to local communities, states, and the nation

The National Park Service (NPS) manages the nation's most iconic destinations that attract millions of visitors form across the nation and around the world. Trip-related spending by NPS visitors generates and supports a considerable amount of economic activity within park gateway communities. This economic effects analysis measures how NPS visitor spending cycles through local economies, generating business sales and supporting jobs and income. In 2013, the National Park System received over 273 million recreation visits. NPS visitors spent $14.6 billion in local gateway regions (defined as communities within 60 miles of a park). The contribution of this spending to the national economy was 238 thousand jobs, $9.2 billion in labor income, $15.6 billion in value added, and $26.5 billion in output. The lodging sector saw the highest direct contributions with 38 thousand jobs and $4.4 billion in output directly contributed to local gateway economies nationally. The sector with the next greatest direct contributions was restaurants and bats, with 50 thousand jobs and $2.0 billion in output directly contributed to local gateway economies nationally. While it is typical for visitation levels to fluctuate across the park units each year, system-wide visitation estimates in 2013 declines by 3.2% (or 9.1 million visits) compared ro 2012 (Street, 2014). Although many factors can influence park visitsation, two events signficiantly contrubuterd to this decline: the Government shutdown in October 2013, and lonf-term park closures related to the lasting effects of Hurrican Sandt from October 2012 through July 2013.

Natural Resource Report

2015 National Park visitor spending effects: Economic contributions to local communities, states, and the nation

The National Park Service (NPS) manages the Nation’s most iconic destinations that attract millions of visitors from across the Nation and around the world. Trip-related spending by NPS visitors generates and supports a considerable amount of economic activity within park gateway communities. This economic effects analysis measures how NPS visitor spending cycles through local economies, generating business sales and supporting jobs and income. In 2015, the National Park System received over 307.2 million recreation visits. NPS visitors spent \$16.9 billion in local gateway regions (defined as communities within 60 miles of a park). The contribution of this spending to the national economy was 295 thousand jobs, \$11.1 billion in labor income, \$18.4 billion in value added, and \$32.0 billion in economic output. The lodging sector saw the highest direct contributions with \$5.2 billion in economic output directly contributed to local gateway economies nationally. The sector with the next greatest direct contributions was the restaurants and bar sector, with \$3.4 billion in economic output directly contributed to local gateway economies nationally. Results from the Visitor Spending Effects report series are available online via an interactive tool. Users can view year-by-year trend data and explore current year visitor spending, jobs, labor income, value added, and economic output effects by sector for national, state, and local economies. This interactive tool is available at http://go.nps.gov/vse.

Natural Resource Report

2016 National Park visitor spending effects: Economic contributions to local communities, states, and the Nation

The National Park Service (NPS) manages the Nation’s most iconic destinations that attract millions of visitors from across the Nation and around the world. Trip-related spending by NPS visitors generates and supports a considerable amount of economic activity within park gateway communities. This economic effects analysis measures how NPS visitor spending cycles through local economies, generating business sales and supporting jobs and income. In 2016, the National Park System received an estimated 330,971,689 recreation visits. Visitors to National Parks spent an estimated \$18.4 billion in local gateway regions (defined as communities within 60 miles of a park). The contribution of this spending to the national economy was 318 thousand jobs, \$12.0 billion in labor income, \$19.9 billion in value added, and \$34.9 billion in economic output. The lodging sector saw the highest direct contributions with \$5.7 billion in economic output directly contributed to local gateway economies nationally. The sector with the next greatest direct contributions was the restaurants and bars sector, with \$3.7 billion in economic output directly contributed to local gateway economies nationally.Results from the Visitor Spending Effects report series are available online via an interactive tool. Users can view year-by-year trend data and explore current year visitor spending, jobs, labor income, value added, and economic output effects by sector for national, state, and local economies. This interactive tool is available at https://www.nps.gov/subjects/socialscience/vse.htm.

Natural Resource Report

2017 National Park visitor spending effects : Economic contributions to local communities, states, and the Nation

The National Park Service (NPS) manages the Nation’s most iconic destinations that attract millions of visitors from across the Nation and around the world. Trip-related spending by NPS visitors generates and supports a considerable amount of economic activity within park gateway communities. This economic effects analysis measures how NPS visitor spending cycles through local economies, generating business sales and supporting jobs and income. In 2017, the National Park System received an estimated 331 million recreation visits. Visitors to National Parks spent an estimated \$18.2 billion in local gateway regions (defined as communities within 60 miles of a park). The contribution of this spending to the national economy was 306 thousand jobs, \$11.9 billion in labor income, \$20.3 billion in value added, and \$35.8 billion in economic output. The lodging sector saw the highest direct contributions with \$5.5 billion in economic output directly contributed to local gateway economies nationally. The sector with the next greatest direct contributions was the restaurants and bars sector, with \$3.7 billion in economic output directly contributed to local gateway economies nationally. Results from the Visitor Spending Effects report series are available online via an interactive tool. Users can view year-by-year trend data and explore current year visitor spending, jobs, labor income, value added, and economic output effects by sector for national, state, and local economies. This interactive tool is available at https://www.nps.gov/subjects/socialscience/vse.htm.

Natural Resource Technical Report

Quantifying the contributions of tributaries to large-river fish populations through mark-recapture modeling

Tributaries may play a vital role in maintaining populations of large river fishes, although the specific contributions of tributaries toward recruitment of river-wide populations are not often understood. Tributaries may experience fewer cumulative anthropogenic impacts relative to mainstem rivers and may offer more natural conditions supportive of native fish populations, which may provide opportunities for fish population restoration. Thus, an improved understanding of tributary-mainstem population dynamics may inform targeted conservation actions for spatially structured populations of large-river fishes. Colorado River tributaries in the Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA are a focus of imperiled Humpback Chub Gila cypha conservation, which includes translocations to enhance population redundancy and to expand the overall population. However, the fate of fish dispersed to the mainstem has not been thoroughly quantified. Using open population mark-recapture models, we quantified the relative contribution of three groups of Humpback Chub, including fish of confirmed tributary origin that were either translocated or produced in situ , and others presumed to be Colorado River mainstem origin fish, to three mainstem populations. Our specific study objectives were to 1) estimate Colorado River abundances of tributary and mainstem-origin fish over time, 2) compare relative group-specific contributions to three mainstem populations, and 3) compare group-specific survival rates of Humpback Chub in the Colorado River and in a tributary where a recent translocation has occurred. Tributaries contributed 26% and 43% of the overall abundance in two tributary inflow reach populations, and zero in a third, which we attributed to uncharacteristically low tributary survival immediately following translocation. In the mainstem, survival of tributary-origin fish was higher compared to mainstem-origin fish, suggesting an advantage of tributary residence. Our contrasting results from three different tributary inflow populations highlight the potential role for tributaries in sustaining large-river fish populations, which may have important implications for long-term maintenance of river metapopulations.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management

Diel temperature signals track seasonal shifts in localized groundwater contributions to headwater streamflow generation at network scale

Groundwater contributions to streamflow sustain aquatic ecosystem resilience; streams without significant groundwater inputs often have well-coupled air and water temperatures that degrade cold-water habitat during warm low flow periods. Widespread uncertainty in stream-groundwater connectivity across space and time has created disparate predictions of energy and nutrient fluxes across headwater networks, hindering predictions of cold-water habitat resilience under climate change scenarios. Recently, annual paired air and water temperature signals have been harnessed to indicate stream water thermal sensitivity and the dominance of deep versus shallow groundwater influence, although the utility of diel air–water temperature signal metrics for hydrologic inference has remained unexplored. Here we analyzed two consecutive years of locally paired, air–water temperature data from 47 headwater stream sites in the Catskill Mountains, New York, USA, and discovered characteristic seasonal patterns in diel temperature signal sinusoid metrics (amplitude ratio, phase lag, and mean ratio) driven by shifts in streamflow generation mechanisms and stream network position. Hydrologic interpretations of observed patterns were supported by stream heat budget model scenarios and additional analysis of paired air–water temperature data from two streams in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA, with well characterized stream-groundwater connectivity. We found that within smaller tributaries, streamflow generation transitions from runoff to groundwater dominance were driven by hillslope drying during seasonal periods of lower precipitation. This was evidenced by significant correlations (p < 0.01) between daily water:air temperature signal amplitudes (non-linear decreases of ∼ 50 %) and derived base-flow index at 22 of the 28 sites, indicating enhanced local groundwater influence on streamflow promotes decoupling of diel air–water temperature signals. Additionally, ratios between daily water:air temperature signal means were lower in tributaries (∼0.68) when compared to main-stem (∼0.8) sites, increasing linearly throughout the observational period. In conceptual stream heat budget models, groundwater inflow had minimal effects on daily phase lags (∼0.2 hr), but increases in fractional groundwater discharge (0–50 %) depressed daily amplitude (∼20 % to 50 %) and mean ratios (∼15 %), supporting the sensitivity of daily metrics to interpreted changes in seasonal groundwater contributions to streamflow. During observational periods (i.e., April through October 2021 and 2022), significant differences (p < 0.01) between tributary and main-stem air–water metrics occurred when base-flow contributions were highest (∼0.93 vs. ∼ 0.68), as sites lower in the network had daily temperature metrics dominated by stream channel thermal inertia, rather than local groundwater connectivity, showing enhanced air–water diel signal coupling during warmer, drier periods. Divergent air temperature coupling across the network was interpreted as being driven by distance from local groundwater source zones, additional lateral groundwater inflows do not contribute a meaningful fraction to channel discharge lower in the network. Given the growing footprint of stream temperature observations, diel air–water temperature signals can provide distributed metrics sensitive to upstream groundwater discharge. Consequently, these metrics can support ongoing efforts by resource managers and researchers seeking to forecast the resilience of cold-water habitat to climate warming and changing precipitation regimes in mountain headwater streams.

New York, Virginia