Search USGS⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Continental Shelf Research”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2005

Influence of the Atchafalaya River on recent evolution of the chenier-plain inner continental shelf, northern Gulf of Mexico

This study examines the influence of the Atchafalaya River, a major distributary of the Mississippi River, on stratigraphic evolution of the inner continental shelf in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Sedimentary, geochemical, and shallow acoustic data are used to identify the western limit of the distal Atchafalaya subaqueous delta, and to estimate the proportion of the Atchafalaya River's sediment load that accumulates on the inner shelf seaward of Louisiana's chenier-plain coast. The results demonstrate a link between sedimentary facies distribution on the inner shelf and patterns of shoreline accretion and retreat on the chenier plain. Mudflat progradation on the eastern chenier-plain coast corresponds to the location of deltaic mud accumulation on the inner shelf. On the central chenier-plain shelf, west of the subaqueous delta, relict sediment is exposed that was originally deposited between ???1200 and 600 years BP during activity of the Lafourche lobe of the Mississippi Delta complex. Mass-balance calculations indicate that the eastern chenier-plain inner shelf and coastal zone form a sink for 7??2% of the sediment load carried by the Atchafalaya River. ?? 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Continental Shelf Research↗
USGS2005

Observations of plan-view sand ripple behavior and spectral wave climate on the inner shelf of San Pedro Bay, California

Concurrent video images of sand ripples and current meter measurements of directional wave spectra are analyzed to study the relations between waves and wave-generated sand ripples. The data were collected on the inner shelf off Huntington Beach, California, at 15 m water depth, where the sea floor is comprised of well-sorted very fine sands (D50=92 ??m), during the winter of 2002. The wave climate, which was controlled by southerly swells (12-18 s period) and westerly wind waves (5-10 s period), included three wave types: (A) uni-modal, swells only; (B) bi-modal, swells dominant; and (C) bi-modal, wind-wave dominant. Each wave type has distinct relations with the plan-view shapes of ripples that are classified into five types: (1) sharp-crested, two-dimensional (2-D) ripples; (2) sharp-crested, brick-pattern, 3-D ripples; (3) bifurcated, 3-D ripples; (4) round-crested, shallow, 3-D ripples; and (5) flat bed. The ripple spacing is very small and varies between 4.5 and 7.5 cm. These ripples are anorbital as ripples in many field studies. Ripple orientation is only correlated with wave directions during strong storms (wave type C). In a poly-modal, multi-directional spectral wave environment, the use of the peak parameters (frequency, direction), a common practice when spectral wave measurements are unavailable, may lead to significant errors in boundary layer and sediment transport calculations. ?? 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Continental Shelf Research↗
USGS2005

Local wind forcing of the Monterey Bay area inner shelf

Wind forcing and the seasonal cycles of temperature and currents were investigated on the inner shelf of the Monterey Bay area of the California coast for 460 days, from June 2001 to September 2002. Temperature measurements spanned an approximate 100 km stretch of coastline from a bluff just north of Monterey Bay south to Point Sur. Inner shelf currents were measured at two sites near the bay's northern shore. Seasonal temperature variations were consistent with previous observations from the central California shelf. During the spring, summer and fall, a seasonal mean alongshore current was observed flowing northwestward in the northern bay, in direct opposition to a southeastward wind stress. A barotropic alongshore pressure gradient, potentially driving the northwestward flow, was needed to balance the alongshore momentum equation. With the exception of the winter season, vertical profiles of mean cross-shore currents were consistent with two-dimensional upwelling and existing observations from upwelling regions with poleward subsurface flow. At periods of 15-60 days, temperature fluctuations were coherent both throughout the domain and with the regional wind field. Remote wind forcing was minimal. During the spring upwelling season, alongshore currents and temperatures in the northern bay were most coherent with winds measured at a nearby land meteorological station. This wind site showed relatively low correlations to offshore buoy wind stations, indicating localized wind effects are important to the circulation along this stretch of Monterey Bay's inner shelf. ?? 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Continental Shelf Research↗
USGS2005

Sheet flow and suspended sediment due to wave groups in a large wave flume

A series of sand bed experiments was carried out in the Large Wave Flume in Hannover, Germany as a component of the SISTEX99 experiment. The experiments focussed on the dynamic sediment response due to wave group forcing over a flat sand bed in order to improve understanding of cross-shore sediment transport mechanisms and determine sediment concentrations, fluxes and net transport rates under these conditions. Sediment concentrations were measured within the sheet flow layer (thickness in the order of 10 grain diameters) and in the suspension region (thickness in the order of centimetres). Within the sheet flow layer, the concentrations are highly coherent with the instantaneous near-bed velocities due to each wave within the wave group. However, in the suspension layer concentrations respond much more slowly to changes in near-bed velocity. At several centimetres above the bed, the suspended sediment concentrations vary on the time scale of the wave group, with a time delay relative to the peak wave within the wave group. The thickness of the sheet flow changes with time. It is strongly coherent with the wave forcing, and is not influenced by the history or sequence of the waves within the group. The velocity of the sediment was also measured within the sheet flow layer some of the time (during the larger wave crests of the group), and the velocity of the fluid was measured at several cm above the sheet flow layer. The grain velocity and concentration estimates can be combined to estimate the sediment flux. The estimates were found to be consistent with previous measurements under monochromatic waves. Under these conditions, without any significant mean current, the sediment flux within the sheet flow layer was found to greatly exceed the sediment flux in the suspension layer. As a result, net transport rates under wave groups are similar to those under monochromatic waves. ?? 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Continental Shelf Research↗
USGS2005

Authigenesis of trace metals in energetic tropical shelf environments

We evaluated authigenic changes of Fe, Mn, V, U, Mo, Cd and Re in suboxic, periodically remobilized, tropical shelf sediments from the Amazon continental shelf and the Gulf of Papua. The Cd/Al, Mo/Al, and U/Al ratios in Amazon shelf sediments were 82%, 37%, and 16% less than those in Amazon River suspended sediments, respectively. Very large depletions of U previously reported in this environment were not observed. The Cd/Al ratios in Gulf of Papua sediments were 76% lower than measurements made on several Papua New Guinea rivers, whereas U/Al ratios in the shelf sediments were enriched by approximately 20%. Other metal/Al ratios in the Papua New Guinea river suspended sediments and continental shelf sediments were not distinguishably different. Comparison of metal/Al ratios to grain size distributions in Gulf of Papua samples indicates that our observations cannot be attributed to differences in grain size between the river suspended sediments and continental shelf sediments. These two shelves constitute a source of dissolved Cd to the world ocean equal to 29–100% of the dissolved Cd input from rivers, but only 3% of the dissolved Mo input and 4% of the dissolved U input. Release of Cd, Mo, and U in tropical shelf sediments is likely a result of intense Fe and Mn oxide reduction in pore waters and resuspension of the sediments. Since we do not observe depletions of particulate Fe and Mn in the shelf sediments most of these dissolved metals must reoxidize in the overlying waters and reprecipitate. As Cd exhibits the largest losses on these tropical shelves, we examined the ability of newly formed Fe and Mn oxides to adsorb dissolved Cd using a geochemical diffuse double-layer surface complexation model and found the oxide surfaces are relatively ineffective at readsorbing Cd in seawater due to surface-site competition by Mg and Ca. If the remobilization and reoxidation of Fe and Mn occurs frequently enough before sediment is buried significant amounts of Cd may be removed from the oxide surfaces. Because a much greater percentage of Mn than Fe becomes remobilized in these shelf sediments, metals closely associated with Mn oxides (like Cd) are more likely to show losses during deposition.

Continental Shelf Research↗
USGS2005

Comparison of shelf currents off central California prior to and during the 1997-1998 El Nino

Moored current, temperature, salinity, and pressure data were collected at three sites that transect the narrow continental shelf offshore of Davenport, CA, starting in August 1996 and continuing to the spring of 1998. This data set allowed a comparison of oceanographic conditions prior to (8/96-3/97) and during (8/97-3/98) the last major El Nin??o. During this El Nin??o, mean temperatures over the 8-month time period were about 3??C warmer than during the prior year at all of the sites. Correlations between near-surface and near-bottom temperatures, and between near-surface temperature and wind stress decreased during the El Nin??o compared to conditions the year before. The mean alongshore currents were more strongly poleward during El Nin??o at sites over the mid-shelf and near the shelf break. There was a general tendency for the energy in alongshore currents to move toward lower frequencies during the El Nin??o, particularly at the sites farther offshore. The processes that forced the shelf flows changed in relative importance throughout the study. The local alongshore wind stress was less important in driving shelf currents during the El Nin??o when much of the wind-induced upwelling was confined to less than 5 km of the coast. The observed strong poleward shelf currents on the mid- to outer-shelf were not clearly tied to local forcing, but were remotely driven, most likely by slope currents. The response of the Davenport shelf to an El Nin??o event may differ from other areas since the shelf is narrow, the wind forcing is weaker than areas to the north and south, and the shelf may be at times isolated by fronts that form at strong upwelling centers. In the winter, strong storm-related winds are important in driving currents at periods not only in the synoptic wind band, but also for periods on the order of 20 d and longer.

Continental Shelf Research↗
USGS2007

Flocculation, heavy metals (Cu, Pb, Zn) and the sand-mud transition on the Adriatic continental shelf, Italy

Across a limited depth range (5-10 m) on many continental shelves, the dominant sediment size changes from sand to mud. This important boundary, called the sand-mud transition (SMT), separates distinct benthic habitats, causes a significant change in acoustic backscatter, represents a key facies change, and delimits more surface-reactive mud from less surface-reactive sand. With the goal of improving dynamical understanding of the SMT, surficial sediments were characterized across two SMTs on the Adriatic continental shelf of Italy. Geometric mean diameter, specific surface area (SSA), mud fraction (<63 ??m) and heavy metal concentrations were all measured. The SMT related to the Tronto River is identified between 15 and 20 m water depth while the SMT associated with the Pescara River varies between 15 and 25 m water depth. The sediment properties correlate with a new, process-based sedimentological parameter that quantifies the fraction of the sediment in the seabed that was delivered as flocs. These correlations suggest that floc dynamics exert strong influence over sediment textural properties and metal concentrations. Relative constancy in the depth of the SMT along this portion of the margin and its lack of evolution over a period during which sediment input to the margin has dramatically decreased suggest that on the Adriatic continental shelf energy is the dominant control on the depth of the SMT. ?? 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Continental Shelf Research↗
USGS2006

Cross-shore velocity shear, eddies and heterogeneity in water column properties over fringing coral reefs: West Maui, Hawaii

A multi-day hydrographic survey cruise was conducted to acquire spatially extensive, but temporally limited, high-resolution, three-dimensional measurements of currents, temperature, salinity and turbidity off West Maui in the summer of 2003 to better understand coastal dynamics along a complex island shoreline with coral reefs. These data complement long-term, high-resolution tide, wave, current, temperature, salinity and turbidity measurements made at a number of fixed locations in the study area starting in 2001. Analyses of these hydrographic data, in conjunction with numerous field observations, evoke the following conceptual model of water and turbidity flux along West Maui. Wave- and wind-driven flows appear to be the primary control on flow over shallower portions of the reefs while tidal and subtidal currents dominate flow over the outer portions of the reefs and insular shelf. When the direction of these flows counter one another, which is quite common, they cause a zone of cross-shore horizontal shear and often form a front, with turbid, lower-salinity water inshore of the front and clear, higher-salinity water offshore of the front. It is not clear whether these zones of high shear and fronts are the cause or the result of the location of the fore reef, but they appear to be correlated alongshore over relatively large horizontal distances (orders of kilometers). When two flows converge or when a single flow is bathymetrically steered, eddies can be generated that, in the absence of large ocean surface waves, tend to accumulate material. Areas of higher turbidity and lower salinity tend to correlate with regions of poor coral health or the absence of well-developed reefs, suggesting that the oceanographic processes that concentrate and/or transport nutrients, contaminants, low-salinity water or suspended sediment might strongly influence coral reef ecosystem health and sustainability.

Continental Shelf Research↗
USGS2007

The impact of floods and storms on the acoustic reflectivity of the inner continental shelf: A modeling assessment

Flood deposition and storm reworking of sediments on the inner shelf can change the mixture of grain sizes on the seabed and thus its porosity, bulk density, bulk compressional velocity and reflectivity. Whether these changes are significant enough to be detectable by repeat sub-bottom sonar surveys, however, is uncertain. Here the question is addressed through numerical modeling. Episodic flooding of a large versus small river over the course of a century are modeled with HYDROTREND using the drainage basin characteristics of the Po and Pescara Rivers (respectively). A similarly long stochastic record of storms offshore of both rivers is simulated from the statistics of a long-term mooring recording of waves in the western Adriatic Sea. These time series are then input to the stratigraphic model SEDFLUX2D , which simulates flood deposition and storm reworking on the inner shelf beyond the river mouths. Finally, annual changes in seabed reflectivity across these shelf regions are computed from bulk densities output by SEDFLUX2D and compressional sound speeds computed from mean seafloor grain size using the analytical model of Buckingham [1997. Theory of acoustic attenuation, dispersion, and pulse propagation in unconsolidated granular materials including marine sediments. Journal of the Acoustical Society of America 102, 2579–2596; 1998. Theory of compressional and shear waves in fluidlike marine sediments. Journal of the Acoustical Society of America 103, 288–299; 2000. Wave propagation, stress relaxation, and grain-tograin shearing in saturated, unconsolidated marine sediments. Journal of the Acoustical Society of America 108, 2796–2815]. The modeling predicts reflectivities that change from <12 dB for sands on the innermost shelf to >9 dB for muds farther offshore, values that agree with reflectivity measurements for these sediment types. On local scales of ∼100 m, however, maximum changes in reflectivity are <0.5 dB. So are most annual changes in reflectivity over all water depths modeled (i.e., 0–35 m). Given that signal differences need to be ⩾2–3 dB to be resolved, the results suggest that grain-size induced changes in reflectivity caused by floods and storms will rarely be detectable by most current sub-bottom sonars.

Continental Shelf Research↗
USGS2006

The large-scale distribution and internal geometry of the fall 2000 Po River flood deposit: Evidence from digital X-radiography

Event-response coring on the Po River prodelta (northern Adriatic Sea) coupled with shipboard digital X-radiography, resistivity profiling, and grain-size analyses permitted documentation of the initial distribution and physical properties of the October 2000 flood deposit. The digital X-radiography system comprises a constant-potential X-ray source and an amorphous silicon imager with an active area of 29??42 cm and 12-bit depth resolution. Objective image segmentation algorithms based on bulk density (brightness), layer contacts (edge detection) and small-scale texture (fabric) were used to identify the flood deposit. Results indicate that the deposit formed in water depths of 6-29 m immediately adjacent to the three main distributary mouths of the Po (Pila, Tolle and Gnocca/Goro). Maximal thickness was 36 cm at a 20-m site off the main mouth (Pila), but many other sites hadthicknesses >20 cm. The Po flood deposit has a complex internal stratigraphy, with multiple layers, a diverse suite of physical sedimentary structures (e.g., laminations, ripple cross bedding, lenticular bedding, soft-sediment deformation structures), and dramatic changes in grain size that imply rapid deposition and fluctuations in energy during emplacement. Based on the flood deposit volume and well-constrained measurements of deposit bulk density the mass of the flood deposit was estimated to be 16??109 kg, which is about two-thirds of the estimated suspended sediment load delivered by the river during the event. The locus of deposition, overall thickness, and stratigraphic complexity of the flood deposit can best be explained by the relatively long sediment throughput times of the Po River, whereby sediment is delivered to the ocean during a range of conditions (i.e., the storm responsible for the precipitation is long gone), the majority of which are reflective of the fair-weather condition. Sediment is therefore deposited proximal to the river mouths, where it can form thick, but stratigraphically complex deposits. In contrast, floods of small rivers such as the Eel (northern California) are coupled to storm conditions, which lead to high levels of sediment dispersion. ?? 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Continental Shelf Research↗
USGS2006

Cross-shelf subtidal variability in San Pedro Bay during summer, 2001

A total of 16 moorings were deployed across the San Pedro shelf, one of the two wider embayments in the Southern California Bight, from near the surfzone to the upper-slope. On the middle and outer shelf in the summer of 2001, the currents flowed strongly equatorward at the surface and had large vertical shears through the well-stratified water column. This equatorward flow differs from predominantly poleward flow found in previous studies of the coastal margin further west. In deeper water, near the shelf break, the shears were such that near-bottom flows were poleward and incorporated into the upper parts of the Southern California Undercurrent over the slope. Mid-shelf current fluctuations, with periods of 10-25 days, along with upwelling over the shelf, were not related to local winds, but were significantly correlated with the large-scale alongshore pressure gradient. Shorter period (???7-10 days) inner shelf alongshore currents, however, were significantly correlated with the alongshore wind at the shelf break. A CEOF analysis gives two significant modes, with the first mode dominant over the outer and middle shelf. The wind-forced second mode connects the inner shelf to the poleward undercurrent over the slope such that increases in the poleward flow over the slope are correlated with increases in the equatorward current inshore of the 15 m isobath.

Continental Shelf Research↗
USGS2006

Shallow stratigraphy and sedimentation history during high-frequency sea-level changes on the central California shelf

Analyses of high-resolution seismic-reflection data and sediment cores indicate that an extensive sediment deposit on the central California continental shelf is comprised of several late-Pleistocene to Holocene age facies. Offshore of the littoral zone, in water depths of 30-90 m, a 3-6 m thick veneer of fine sediment referred to as the mid-shelf mudbelt has formed along 50-100 km of the coast. The mudbelt drapes a parasequence characterized by prograding clinoforms that in places overlies a 1-3 m thick basal transgressive lag deposit. These facies overlie a prominent erosional unconformity that extends from the shore to the outer shelf. Eighteen calibrated 14CAMS ages of marine molluscs and terrestrial wood detritus sampled in cores range 15,800 yr BP to modern indicating a postglacial age for these sediments (one >55,000 yr BP represents relict sand). We model accumulation of these facies using (1) the topography of the underlying erosional unconformity interpreted from seismic reflection profiles, (2) observed sediment facies (grain size) distribution across the shelf (a proxy for wave/current sediment partitioning), and published estimates of (3) eustatic sea-level history, and (4) regional tectonics. Our model and data indicate that deposition of the transgressive lag began during early, slow postglacial sea-level rise and that a notable change in depositional environment occurred across an area of more than 200 km2 of the outer shelf likely in response to abrupt drowning during Meltwater Pulse 1B (11,500 yr BP). We propose that rapid progradation of clinoforms may have occurred during transgression because of the unique interaction of modest rates of sediment input and tectonic uplift, variable rates of eustatic sea-level rise and a complex stepped antecedent topography.

Continental Shelf Research↗
USGS2006

Large internal waves in Massachusetts Bay transport sediments offshore

A field experiment was carried out in Massachusetts Bay in August 1998 to assess the role of large-amplitude internal waves (LIWs) in resuspending bottom sediments. The field experiment consisted of a four-element moored array extending from just west of Stellwagen Bank (90-m water depth) across Stellwagen Basin (85- and 50-m water depth) to the coast (24-m water depth). The LIWs were observed in packets of 5–10 waves, had periods of 5–10 min and wavelengths of 200–400 m, and caused downward excursions of the thermocline of as much as 30 m. At the 85-m site, the current measured 1 m above bottom (mab) typically increased from near 0 to 0.2 m/s offshore in a few minutes upon arrival of the LIWs. At the 50-m site, the near-bottom offshore flow measured 6 mab increased from about 0.1 to 0.4–0.6 m/s upon arrival of the LIWs and remained offshore in the bottom layer for 1–2 h. The near-bottom currents associated with the LIWs, in concert with the tidal currents, were directed offshore and sufficient to resuspend the bottom sediments at both the 50- and 85-m sites. When LIWs are present, they may resuspend sediments for as long as 5 hours each tidal cycle as they travel westward across Stellwagen Basin. At 85-m water depth, resuspension associated with LIWs is estimated to occur for about 0.4 days each summer, about the same amount of time as caused by surface waves.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2006

Shear velocity estimates on the inner shelf off Grays Harbor, Washington, USA

Shear velocity was estimated from current measurements near the bottom off Grays Harbor, Washington between May 4 and June 6, 2001 under mostly wave-dominated conditions. A downward-looking pulse-coherent acoustic Doppler profiler (PCADP) and two acoustic-Doppler velocimeters (field version; ADVFs) were deployed on a tripod at 9-m water depth. Measurements from these instruments were used to estimate shear velocity with (1) a modified eddy-correlation (EC) technique, (2) the log-profile (LP) method, and (3) a dissipation-rate method. Although values produced by the three methods agreed reasonably well (within their broad ranges of uncertainty), there were important systematic differences. Estimates from the EC method were generally lowest, followed by those from the inertial-dissipation method. The LP method produced the highest values and the greatest scatter. We show that these results are consistent with boundary-layer theory when sediment-induced stratification is present. The EC method provides the most fundamental estimate of kinematic stress near the bottom, and stratification causes the LP method to overestimate bottom stress. These results remind us that the methods are not equivalent and that comparison among sites and with models should be made carefully. ?? 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2006

Bottom instrumented tripods: History, applications, and impacts

Instrumented bottom tripods have provided important data on sediment transport processes on continental shelves and in estuaries for four decades. Since the initial deployment in a tidal channel in Puget Sound, WA, in 1965 numerous tripods have been constructed to investigate bottom boundary layer and sediment dynamics worldwide. Tripod data have led to new understanding of near-bottom wave and current flows in the coastal ocean, and have been crucial to the development of shelf circulation and sediment transport models. Calculations of bottom stress, bottom roughness, and sediment flux that resulted directly from tripod data have been compared to bottom boundary layer model results. Where these have differed, new or revised model components have been developed to improve the skill of the models. The many discoveries that have been made from tripod experiments include dense, near-bottom fluid mud layers that transport large quantities of suspended sediment offshore into deeper regions of the continental shelf. This process has been linked to the seaward progradation of subaqueous deltas and to the boundaries of mid-shelf mud deposits off rivers with high fine-sediment discharge.

Continental Shelf Research↗
USGS2007

Modeling the influence of river discharge on salt intrusion and residual circulation in Danshuei River estuary, Taiwan

A 3-D, time-dependent, baroclinic, hydrodynamic and salinity model was implemented and applied to the Danshuei River estuarine system and the adjacent coastal sea in Taiwan. The model forcing functions consist of tidal elevations along the open boundaries and freshwater inflows from the main stream and major tributaries in the Danshuei River estuarine system. The bottom friction coefficient was adjusted to achieve model calibration and verification in model simulations of barotropic and baroclinic flows. The turbulent diffusivities were ascertained through comparison of simulated salinity time series with observations. The model simulation results are in qualitative agreement with the available field data.

Continental Shelf Research↗
USGS2007

A deep reef in deep trouble

The well-documented degradation of shallower reefs which are often closer to land and more vulnerable to pollution, sewage and other human-related stressors has led to the suggestion that deeper, more remote offshore reefs could possibly serve as sources of coral and fish larvae to replenish the shallower reefs. Yet, the distribution, status, and ecological roles of deep (>30 m) Caribbean reefs are not well known. In this report, an observation of a deep reef which has undergone a recent extensive loss of coral cover is presented. In stark contrast to the typical pattern of coral loss in shallow reefs, the deeper corals were most affected. This report is the first description of such a pattern of coral loss on a deep reef.

Virgin Islands↗
USGS2007

Blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium fundyense in the western Gulf of Maine in 1993 and 1994: A comparative modeling study

Blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium fundyense commonly occur in the western Gulf of Maine but the amount of toxin observed in coastal shellfish is highly variable. In this study, a coupled physical-biological model is used to investigate the dynamics underlying the observed A. fundyense abundance and shellfish toxicity in 1993 (a high toxicity year) and 1994 (low toxicity year). The physical model simulates the spring circulation, while the biological model estimates the germination and population dynamics of A. fundyense based on laboratory and field data. The model captures the large-scale aspects of the initiation and development of A. fundyense blooms during both years, but small-scale patchiness and the dynamics of bloom termination remain problematic. In both cases, the germination of resting cysts accounts for the magnitude of A. fundyense populations early in the spring. Simulations with low net A. fundyense growth rates capture the mean observed concentration during the bloom peak, which is of similar magnitude during both years. There is little evidence that large-scale changes in biological dynamics between 1993 and 1994 were a primary driver of the differences in shellfish toxicity. Results instead suggest that the persistent southwesterly flow of the western Maine Coastal Current led to A. fundyense populations of similar alongshore extent by late May of both years. This period coincides with peak cell abundance in the region. Variations in wind forcing (downwelling favorable in 1993, upwelling favorable in 1994) and subsequent cell transport (inshore in 1993, offshore in 1994) in early June then provides a plausible explanation for the dramatic mid-June differences in shellfish toxicity throughout the western Gulf of Maine. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Continental Shelf Research↗