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At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Modeling the response of an endangered rabbit population to RHDV2 and vaccination

Rabbit hemorrhagic disease virus 2 (RHDV2), recently detected in the western United States, has the potential to cause mass mortality events in wild rabbit and hare populations. Currently, few management strategies exist other than vaccination. We developed a spatially explicit model of RHDV2 for a population of riparian brush rabbits ( Sylvilagus bachmani riparius ), a subspecies of brush rabbit classified as endangered in the United States, on a subsection of the San Joaquin River National Wildlife Refuge. The goal of our model was to provide guidance regarding vaccination strategies for an endangered rabbit species. Our model predicts that increased interactions between rabbits (a proxy for landscape connectivity) and disease transmission rates among susceptible hosts (individual brush rabbits and conspecifics) have the greatest influence on the outcome of a potential vaccination campaign. Our model projects that across a range of parameter estimates (given an RHDV2 incursion), the median estimated population size with a 0%–10% vaccination rate after 1 year is 538 rabbits (95% Confidence Interval [C.I.] 69–1235), approximately 36% of the expected size of the study population of 1470 rabbits without an RHDV2 introduction. With a 10%–20%, 20%–30%, or 30%–40% vaccination rate, the median estimated population size increased to 628 rabbits (95% C.I. 130–1298), 723 rabbits (95% C.I. 198–1317), and 774 rabbits (95% C.I. 228–1410), respectively. These estimates represent 43%, 49%, and 53% of the expected population size without an RHDV2 introduction. Overall, a 1% increase in vaccination rate was associated with a six rabbit (95% C.I. 5–7) increase in total remaining population size. This result is dependent on assumptions regarding environmental transmission, home range size (and contact rates of rabbits). Given the relatively short lifespan of rabbits and the potential need for boosters, vaccination programs are most likely to be successful for small target populations where relatively high vaccination rates can be maintained.

California↗
USGS2024

Matching decision support modeling frameworks to disease emergence stages and associated management objectives

Wildlife disease management decisions often require rapid responses to situations that are fraught with uncertainty. By recognizing that management is implemented to achieve specific objectives, resource managers and science partners can identify an analysis technique and develop a monitoring plan to evaluate management effectiveness. For emerging infectious diseases, objectives may take several distinct forms, dependent on the perceived stage of disease emergence (i.e., pre-epidemic, early outbreak, mid-epidemic, and endemic), the expected rate of spread, and the anticipated effect of the disease on host populations. Identifying modeling techniques and metrics that are linked to management objectives will require early and consistent communication between managers and science partners. We link modeling approaches that can be used to forecast and evaluate the performance of intervention strategies with a range of disease management objectives. Our aim is to help scientists recognize alternative modeling approaches which may better align with different forms of disease management objectives, and to help managers evaluate the relevance of proposed modeling approaches to their specified objectives for disease management. Recognizing that disease management objectives can take different forms, and thus require different modeling approaches, can help wildlife disease response teams (i.e., natural resource managers, scientists, and stakeholders working collaboratively) better prepare and respond to disease threats.

Conservation Science and Practice↗
USGS2024

Flexible migration and habitat use strategies of an endangered waterbird during hydrological drought

Wildlife species confront threats from climate and land use change, exacerbating the influence of extreme climatic events on populations and biodiversity. Migratory waterbirds are especially vulnerable to hydrological drought via reduced availability of surface water habitats. We assessed how whooping cranes ( Grus americana ) modified habitat use and migration strategies during drought to evaluate their resilience to changing conditions and adaptive capacity. We categorized >8000 night-roost sites used by 146 cranes from 2010 to 2022 and examined relative use during non-drought, moderate drought, and extreme drought conditions. We found cultivated and uncultivated palustrine and lacustrine wetlands were generally used less during droughts than non-drought conditions. Conversely, impounded palustrine and lacustrine systems and rivers served more frequently as drought refugia (i.e., used more during drought than non-drought conditions). Night roosts occurred primarily on private lands (86% overall); public land use decreased with latitude and increased with drought severity, with greatest use (56%) occurring during severe autumn drought in the southern Great Plains. Quantifying use of identified critical habitats in the United States indicated that Cheyenne Bottoms State Waterfowl Management Area and Quivira National Wildlife Refuge were used less during drought, and the Central Platte River and Salt Plains National Wildlife Refuge received similar use during drought compared to non-drought conditions. Our findings provide insights into compensatory use of habitats, where impounded surface water may function in a complementary fashion with natural wetlands. Collectively, these and other types of wetlands distributed across the migration corridor provided a reliable network of habitat available across the Great Plains. A diversity of wetlands available during variable environmental conditions would be useful in supporting continued recovery of whooping cranes and likely have benefits for a wide array of migratory birds.

Conservation Science and Practice↗
USGS2024

Accuracy, accessibility, and institutional capacity shape the utility of habitat models for managing and conserving rare plants on western public lands

Public lands are often managed for multiple uses ranging from energy development to rare plant conservation. Habitat models can help land managers assess and mitigate potential effects of projects on rare plants, but it is unclear how models are currently being used. Our goal was to better understand how staff in the Bureau of Land Management currently use habitat models to inform their decisions, and perceived challenges and benefits associated with that use. We first examined litigation documents to determine whether the agency has been challenged on its use of data for rare plants and found no relevant legal challenges. Second, we analyzed model use in National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) documents and found no clear citations of habitat models. Finally, we conducted interviews with agency staff who analyze potential effects of proposed actions on rare plants in NEPA documents. The primary challenges interviewees faced in using models related to data organization and access, model quality and accuracy, and institutional capacity. Interviewees believed models could be used more to inform decisions and actions to conserve rare plants and rare plant habitat on public lands and recommended improving staff access to models, creating models for additional species, and addressing staffing limitations.

Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, W↗
USGS2024

Think regionally, act locally: Perspectives on co-design of spatial conservation prioritization tools and why end-user engagement altered our approach

Coproduction represents an inclusive approach for developing decision-support resources because it seeks to integrate scientific knowledge and end-user needs. Unfortunately, spatial decision support systems (SDSS) coproduction has sometimes resulted in limited utility for end-users, partially due to scarce SDSS coproduction guidance. To initiate coproduction, we held a series of workshops to co-design a spatial conservation prioritization tool for sagebrush ecosystems in the western United States. We share four themes derived from participant feedback and our reflections to guide future SDSS codesign efforts. We found end-user confidence in data inputs and transparency regarding SDSS assumptions generated trust. Workshop participants noted our virtual format, with smaller break-out groups, effectively facilitated discussions. Ultimately, end-users appreciated the conservation context provided by regional-scale SDSS but preferred local-scale prioritization efforts for site-level planning. Therefore, we are shifting ongoing co-design efforts to consider local-scale tool development, which can scale up to larger geographic extents.

Conservation Science and Practice↗
USGS2024

Computational approaches improve evidence synthesis and inform broad fisheries trends

Addressing ecological impacts with effective conservation actions requires information on the links between human pressures and localized responses. Understanding links is a priority for many conservation contexts, including the world's fresh waters, which face intensifying threats to disproportionately high species diversity, including more than half of the world's fish species. Literature synthesis can uncover links and highlight potential research gaps, yet can be very cumbersome and time consuming. Emerging tools like text mining can improve efficiency in extracting relevant information from vast scientific outputs. This study synthesizes evidence of direct anthropogenic threats to major inland fisheries and examines driver-impact-response patterns using coupled automated and manual text classification methods. We screened 9336 abstracts from 45 river basins of high importance to inland fish production; 1152 abstracts contained evidence of direct threats to fish. The most common documented drivers were pollution, dams, and fishing pressure, which were most strongly linked to decreased fitness, altered reproduction, and mortality, respectively. Strong impact-response links to pollution signal potential bias toward documenting acute threats that generate more visible and immediate impacts. The use of machine learning-based text classification performed best in classifying extraneous information. Results can inform the development of inland fisheries indicators and threat-based metrics, highlight possible evidence gaps in linking global drivers to fishery-level responses, and illustrate the application of a coupled synthesis approach for improved efficiency and extraction of information relevant to conservation outcomes. The associated user and interpretation guides address accessibility and technical barriers faced by conservation scientists to improve efficiency in evidence synthesis.

Conservation Science and Practice↗
USGS2024

Modeling rare plant habitat together with public land managers using an iterative, coproduced process to inform decision-making on multiple-use public lands

Public lands across the United States are managed for multiple uses, resources, and values ranging from energy development to rare plant conservation. Intensified energy development and other land use changes across the Southwestern United States have increased the need for proactive management to mitigate impacts to rare plants. Habitat suitability models can inform decision-making and lead to more effective conservation of rare plants and their habitats, but high-quality models that are suited for use at local scales are lacking for many species. Our team of scientists and managers developed ensembles of habitat suitability models for five rare plant species in New Mexico using a coproduced, iterative framework complemented by comprehensive ground truthing and tailoring of products for use in public land decisions. Our process resulted in substantial differences from initial models through changes to environmental predictors, species occurrence and background data, and development of new species-specific predictors. Involving species experts and end users in model development can strengthen the process and resulting model and build understanding and trust in final products. Both factors can promote use of models to inform public land permitting and planning decisions that may affect rare plants, including by guiding development away from highly suitable habitats.

Colorado, New Mexico↗
USGS2024

Incorporating projected climate conditions to map future riparian refugia

Identifying areas expected to remain buffered from climate change and maintain biodiversity and ecological function (i.e., climate refugia) is important for climate adaptation planning. As structurally diverse transitional zones between terrestrial and aquatic environments, riparian areas are often biological hotspots and provide critical corridors for species movement, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. In our study region in the western and central USA, identifying riparian areas that could serve as climate refugia is a priority for wildlife managers. We mapped areas with connected riparian habitats that, based on landscape diversity and projected changes in summer temperatures and landscape runoff, are expected to serve as climate refugia. To incorporate uncertainty and balance the need for near- and long-term planning, we mapped potential refugia for 2 future time periods (2040–2069, 2070–2099) based on 2 climate models that represented divergent but plausible climate outcomes. The approach we developed is not constrained by physiology or behavior of target species and can be used to identify areas expected to fare comparatively well under a wide range of future climate scenarios. Our approach can also be used to identify areas where restoration could increase riparian connectedness and climate resilience.

Colorado, Indiana, Kansas, Montana, North Dakota, ↗
USGS2024

Projecting the long-term effects of large-scale human influence on the spatial and functional persistence of extant longleaf pine ecosystems in the Florida Flatwoods Pyrome

Decades of human activities and fire suppression have adversely affected longleaf pine ( Pinus palustris ) ecosystems, which are home to high levels of diversity and endemism. These iconic ecosystems also now face challenges from urbanization and climate change, which will alter conservation outcomes over the remainder of the 21st century. To explore how long-term, large-scale human influences could affect the spatial and functional persistence of extant longleaf pine ecosystems in the Florida Flatwoods Pyrome, we extracted a set of 2400 longleaf pine patches ≥40 ha in size from the Florida Longleaf Pine Ecosystem Geodatabase. Projections from the FUTURES urban growth model and the Florida 2070 project indicate that development will lead to losses of existing longleaf pine habitat, reductions in longleaf pine patch size, and patches that are predominantly located in close proximity to developed areas. Finer-scale patterns of longleaf pine loss in three focal landscapes highlighted differences in land protection, ecological setting, and development pressure and the value of using of multiple urbanization iterations. The occurrence of suitable conditions to conduct prescribed fires, a crucial tool for maintaining, improving, and restoring longleaf pine ecosystems, is projected to decrease seasonally throughout the study area. As a result, the functional persistence of ecosystems is at risk due to climate changes that increase barriers to the safe and reliable application of intentional fire. The long-term viability of this critical ecosystem will warrant the evaluation of adaptive strategies that explicitly account for the individual and compounding effects of urban development and changing fire management conditions when considering options for ecosystem protection, management, and restoration.

Florida↗
USGS2025

Stakeholders' priorities for management of a restored elk (Cervus canadensis) population in northeast Minnesota

Wildlife reintroduction projects are an important tool for restoring traditional wildlife heritage, increasing species diversity, providing subsistence and sport hunting and other recreational opportunities, and assisting ecosystem adaption to future climate change. In Minnesota, the Fond du Lac Band of Lake Superior Chippewa and some conservationists advocate for the expansion of existing elk range to other parts of the state. For reintroduction projects to be successful, it is helpful if managers understand stakeholders' preferences for management objectives. We used best-worst scaling (BWS) to assess residents' preferences for management objective alternatives. The University of Minnesota, in collaboration with the Fond du Lac Band of Lake Superior Chippewa and the Rocky Mountain Elk Foundation, conducted a mail-back questionnaire of landowners ( n = 4500) and the general public ( n = 4000) in northeastern Minnesota to determine their attitudes toward elk reintroduction. Results suggest that the most preferred objectives were minimizing negative impacts on existing wildlife populations and reintroducing native species. In contrast, the least important objectives were related to providing elk viewing opportunities or maximizing economic opportunities through elk-related tourism. These findings help inform management objectives related to the reintroduction proposal, provide insight to minimize potential conflict and help develop future communication material related to elk reintroduction.

Minnesota↗
USGS2024

Vulnerability of endemic insular mole skinks to sea-level rise

Although coastal islands are home to many endemic species, they are also at risk of inundation from storm surge and sea level rise. Three subspecies of mole skink ( Plestiodon egregius egregius , P. e. insularis , and the Egmont Key Mole Skink known from a single occurrence) occur on a small number of islands off the Gulf Coast of Florida, USA. We used the most recent sea level rise projections and the latest storm surge simulation data to predict impacts to habitat for insular mole skinks in Florida from 2030 to 2150. Our models predicted that in <100 years (by 2100; intermediate sea level rise scenario; ~1.08–1.15 m sea level rise), >78% of preferred habitat for the Florida Keys Mole Skink, >65% of preferred habitat for the Cedar Key Mole Skink, and >36% of preferred habitat for the Egmont Key Mole Skink will be inundated from sea level rise. Storm surge from tropical cyclones presents a more immediate risk to insular mole skink habitat: our models predicted that between 58% and 75% of Florida Keys Mole Skink habitat is at risk of being submerged under an average maximum of between 0.60 (SD = 0.86) and 0.98 (SD = 0.36) m of storm surge water for a category 1 storm, and the amount of habitat predicted to be impacted increases for higher intensity storms. Our models predicted similar trends for Cedar Key and Egmont Key Mole Skink habitat. Given current sea level rise projections, our models predicted that all three subspecies could be extinct by 2140 due to habitat inundation. There remains uncertainty about how species and ecosystems will respond to sea level rise, thus research to fill these gaps could help mitigate the effects of sea level rise in areas most vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

Conservation Science and Practice↗
USGS2024

From causes of conflict to solutions: Shifting the lens on human–carnivore coexistence research

Human-carnivore conflicts pose significant challenges in the management and conservation of carnivores across the globe. Abundant research has led to generalizable insights into the causes of such conflicts. For example, conflicts predictably occur when carnivores have access to human food resources, particularly when their natural foods are scarce. However, similar insights into the effectiveness of interventions aimed at coexistence remains comparatively scarce. We hypothesized that this disparity might be reflected in a bias toward research focused on causes of conflict rather than interventions to address it. To test our hypothesis, we evaluated the content of studies on human–carnivore conflicts and coexistence in Canada and the United States from 2010 to 2021. We found that studies disproportionately focused on causes of conflict, with that discrepancy increasing through our study period. We also found a disproportionate focus on black bears and wolves and western jurisdictions, and a disproportionate use of observational (vs. experimental) approaches. Studies on conflict interventions were primarily directed at the carnivores themselves (e.g., lethal approaches) versus human elements (e.g., attractant management, policies), despite evidence that the latter are more effective. We expect that a shift in focus toward solutions-oriented research, integrating insights across geographies, taxa, social contexts, and disciplines, would facilitate effective interventions and foster coexistence, improving outcomes for people and carnivores alike.

Conservation Science and Practice↗
USGS2024

Evaluating approaches for integrating species distributions in spatial conservation planning

Map-based decision support tools (DSTs) that use species distributions are an important means of identifying priority areas for conservation. The 2020 Wisconsin Waterfowl Habitat Conservation Strategy (WWHCS) uses a DST to identify priority ecological landscapes and watersheds to guide waterfowl habitat projects. The WWHCS DST relies on waterfowl habitat suitability layers derived through expert opinion in lieu of species distributions, a common approach in DSTs. Given the inherent subjectivity of expert opinion, data-driven species distributions such as those available from citizen science projects, could provide more accurate information and better identify areas important for waterfowl conservation. Here, we explore the application of relative abundance products available through the eBird Status and Trends project as an alternative to expert-derived habitat suitability layers in the WWHCS DST. Our objectives were to compare seasonal species distributions derived from habitat suitability models (expert-derived) and species distribution models (eBird-derived) and determine whether differences influenced DST prioritizations. Correlations between expert- and eBird-derived distributions were generally low to moderate for the breeding and fall layers (ρ: -0.03–0.76), and least for the spring (ρ: -0.49–0.72). There was minimal agreement among top-ranked ecological landscapes (40%) and watersheds (28%) between the expert- and eBird-derived versions of the DST. Overall, our results suggest the DST may benefit from incorporating data-driven species distributions. However, additional work validating eBird relative abundance against professional surveys (e.g., aerial counts) and empirical studies evaluating waterfowl habitat selection and vital rates are important future considerations for the WWHCS DST and waterfowl habitat conservation in Wisconsin.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2025

Exposure, sensitivity, or adaptive capacity? Reviewing assessments that use only two of three elements of climate change vulnerability

As climate change accelerates, understanding which species are most vulnerable and why they are vulnerable will be vital to inform conservation action. Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are tools to assess species' responses to climate change, detect drivers of vulnerability, and inform conservation planning. CCVAs are commonly composed of three elements: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Incorporating all three elements can be challenging, and including only two of the three elements may be a more feasible approach in many systems. Although two-element CCVA approaches have become more common, their utility and procedures remain poorly documented. We conducted a literature review to explore the scope, methods, and rationale of CCVAs that use a two-element approach to assess vertebrate vulnerability. Despite the potential to expand CCVAs into understudied systems, two-element assessments had similar geographic and taxonomic biases as those previously detected in CCVAs in general. Methods varied, yet we found that variables used in two-element studies could be condensed into standardized categories to enhance comparability. Finally, limitations in data availability and computational resources were common rationales for using a two-element approach. By clarifying the purposes, opportunities, and limitations of two-element assessment, this review can aid in selecting appropriate methods for CCVAs.

Conservation Science and Practice↗
USGS2025

Jaguar density estimation in Mexico: The conservation importance of considering home range orientation in spatial capture–recapture

Accurate estimation of population parameters for imperiled wildlife is crucial for effective conservation decision-making. Population density is commonly used for monitoring imperiled species across space and time, and spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models can produce unbiased density estimates. However, many imperiled species are restricted to fragmented remnant habitats in landscapes severely modified by humans, which can alter animal space use in ways that violate typical SCR model assumptions, possibly cryptically biasing density estimates and misinforming conservation actions. Using data from a two-year camera-trapping survey in the Central Pacific Coast region, Mexico, we demonstrate the potential importance to endangered jaguar ( Panthera onca ) conservation of considering non-circular home ranges when estimating population density with SCR. Strong evidence existed that jaguars had elliptical home ranges wherein movements primarily occurred along linearly arranged coastal habitats that the camera array aligned with. Accounting for this movement with the SCR anisotropic detection function transformation, density estimates were 30%–32% higher than estimates from standard SCR models that assumed circular home ranges. Given much of suitable jaguar habitat in Mexico is fragmented and linearly oriented along coastlines and mountain ranges, accommodating irregular space use in SCR may be critical for obtaining reliable density estimates to inform effective jaguar conservation.

Nayarit↗
USGS2019

Conservation decisions under pressure: Lessons from an exercise in rapid response to wildlife disease

Novel outbreaks of emerging pathogens require rapid responses to enable successful mitigation. We simulated a 1‐day emergency meeting where experts were engaged to recommend mitigation strategies for a new outbreak of the amphibian fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans . Despite the inevitable uncertainty, experts suggested and discussed several possible strategies. However, their recommendations were undermined by imperfect initial definitions of the objectives and scope of management. This problem is likely to arise in most real‐world emergency situations. The exercise thus highlighted the importance of clearly defining the context, objectives, and spatial–temporal scale of mitigation decisions. Managers are commonly under pressure to act immediately. However, an iterative process in which experts and managers cooperate to clarify objectives and uncertainties, while collecting more information and devising mitigation strategies, may be slightly more time consuming but ultimately lead to better outcomes.

Conservation Science and Practice↗
USGS2019

Evidence of an extreme weather‐induced phenological mismatch and a local extirpation of the endangered Karner blue butterfly

In 2011, an experiment was undertaken to examine spring synchrony between the endangered Karner blue butterfly ( Lycaeides melissa samuelis ) (Kbb) and its obligate host plant, wild blue lupine ( Lupinus perennis ) at Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore (INDU), where the southernmost population of Kbb occurred at the time of this study. From 2012 to 2014, field‐placed Kbb eggs were observed for larvae hatching in conjunction with observations of lupine emergence in oak savanna habitat. In 2012, 61% of Kbb hatched when <5% of lupine had emerged due to an extreme early spring event as compared to subsequent years where temporal overlap was >15% between Kbb and lupine. Laboratory experiments testing the sensitivity of Kbb hatching to warm temperatures during the winter of 2011–2012 confirmed that Kbb eggs were susceptible to temperature‐induced hatching. In the summer of 2012, second generation Kbb larvae feeding on sun‐exposed lupine had higher mortality due to the heat and drought conditions that resulted in earlier plant senescence. Following 2012, Kbb were no longer observed at INDU. This observation illustrates the pressing need for adaptive management strategies that account for extreme weather events brought on by climate change.

Indiana↗
USGS2019

A pragmatic approach for comparing species distribution models to increasing confidence in managing piping plover habitat

Conservation management often requires decision-making without perfect knowledge of the at-risk species or ecosystem. Species distribution models (SDMs) are useful but largely under-utilized due to model uncertainty. We provide a case study that utilizes an ensemble modeling approach of two independently derived SDMs to explicitly address common modeling impediments and to directly inform conservation decision-making for piping plovers in a heavily populated mid-Atlantic (USA) coastal zone. We summarized previously published Bayesian network and maximum entropy modeling approaches to highlight similarities and differences in model structure, and we compared the relative importance of predictors used. Despite marked differences in analytical approach, the relative importance of factors driving nest-site selection was consistent. Comparison of raw suitability scores revealed high dissimilarity between modeling approaches, but models demonstrated considerable agreement when comparing a binary (suitable/unsuitable) measure of suitability. Instances of model consensus (i.e., overlapping areas of predicted piping plover nesting habitat between models) provide a stronger ‘signal’ in model results, reducing uncertainty related to biases or errors associated with either model. We tested model accuracy using a common dataset of plover nests initiated within the focal areas between 2013 and 2015, and we examined congruency in model outputs. Nearly 90% of all nests occurred in areas predicted suitable by at least one model, and at least 33% of the total nests were predicted in areas suitable by both. Because models predominantly agreed on what drives piping plover nest-site selection, areas predicted suitable by a single model should not be discounted. This case study demonstrates how models can effectively inform conservation planning by explicitly identifying the management objective, presenting robust evidence to allow managers to evaluate outcomes of alternative management decisions, and clearly communicating results that address real-world conservation problems. The results presented here can greatly increase the piping plover management community’s ability to prioritize candidate sites for future protection, manage existing nesting habitat appropriately, and make a compelling case for conservation actions against competing land use objectives.

New Jersey, New York↗