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Ground-motion characterization for the 2025 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

We develop the ground-motion characterization (GMC) for the 2025 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (NSHM-PRVI) for earthquakes in active crustal, subduction interface, and subduction intraslab regimes. Using ground-motion models (GMMs) from the Next-Generation Attenuation (NGA)-West2 and NGA-Subduction projects, the GMC is parameterized by scaled-backbone models for median ground motions and by independent logic trees of aleatory variability. We introduce several novel GMC features into the U.S. NSHM: (1) use of regional ground-motion data for modeling median ground motions; (2) development of scaled-backbone models for median ground motions; and (3) development of independent logic trees of aleatory variability from variance components of GMMs and computed from multiple ground-motion datasets, and incorporating regional ground-motion data effects on variability. We compute probabilistic seismic hazard curves and maps to evaluate the contributions from the GMC components and for comparison with the 2003 GMC. Contributions of the GMC to epistemic uncertainty in seismic hazard are evaluated through spatial variations in epistemic uncertainty in hazard maps, comparisons between mean hazard curves and fractiles, as well as investigations of the contributions of logic-tree branches to hazard maps and curves. Comparisons between seismic hazard from the 2025 and 2003 GMCs allow examination of the changes in hazard curves and mapped values with 2% and 10% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years. The 2025 GMC exhibits modest changes in median predictions, relative to the 2003 GMC; overall, values of aleatory variability are higher, except at long periods ( ), resulting in changes to probabilistic ground motions at low probabilities of exceedance (<10% probability of exceedance in 50 years). Changes in hazard at 2% and 10% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years are also relatively modest (within 20%) at most sites, with the impacts from the 2025 GMC exhibiting minor reductions and increases at 0.2 and 1.0 s periods, respectively, relative to the 2003 GMC.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands

Updates to watershed modeling in the Potholes Reservoir basin, Washington-a supplement to Scientific Investigation Report 2009-5081

A previous collaborative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Bureau of Reclamation resulted in a watershed model for four watersheds that discharge into Potholes Reservoir, Washington. Since the model was constructed, two new meteorological sites have been established that provide more reliable real-time information. The Bureau of Reclamation was interested in incorporating this new information into the existing watershed model developed in 2009, and adding measured snowpack information to update simulated results and to improve forecasts of runoff. This report includes descriptions of procedures to aid a user in making model runs, including a description of the Object User Interface for the watershed model with details on specific keystrokes to generate model runs for the contributing basins. A new real-time, data-gathering computer program automates the creation of the model input files and includes the new meteorological sites. The 2009 watershed model was updated with the new sites and validated by comparing simulated results to measured data. As in the previous study, the updated model (2012 model) does a poor job of simulating individual storms, but a reasonably good job of simulating seasonal runoff volumes. At three streamflow-gaging stations, the January 1 to June 30 retrospective forecasts of runoff volume for years 2010 and 2011 were within 40 percent of the measured runoff volume for five of the six comparisons, ranging from -39.4 to 60.3 percent difference. A procedure for collecting measured snowpack data and using the data in the watershed model for forecast model runs, based on the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction method, is described, with an example that uses 2004 snow-survey data.

Washington

Level II scour analysis for Bridge 24 (WODSTH00190024) on Town Highway 19, crossing North Bridgewater Brook, Woodstock, Vermont

This report provides the results of a detailed Level II analysis of scour potential at structure WODSTH00190024 on Town Highway 19 crossing North Bridgewater Brook, Woodstock, Vermont (figures 1–8). A Level II study is a basic engineering analysis of the site, including a quantitative analysis of stream stability and scour (U.S. Department of Transportation, 1993). A Level I study is included in Appendix E of this report. A Level I study provides a qualitative geomorphic characterization of the study site. Information on the bridge available from VTAOT files was compiled prior to conducting Level I and Level II analyses and can be found in Appendix D. The site is in the Green Mountain physiographic province of east-central Vermont in the town of Woodstock. The 3.6-mi 2 drainage area is in a predominantly rural and forested basin. In the vicinity of the study site, the left and right banks are covered by moderate tree cover along the immediate banks with some pasture/ grassland beyond. In the study area, the North Bridgewater Brook has a sinuous channel with a slope of approximately 0.03 ft/ft, an average channel top width of 44 ft and an average channel depth of 4 ft. The channel bed materials ranges from sand to boulders with a D 50 (median diameter)of 70.1 mm or 0.229 ft. The geomorphic assessment at the time of the Level I and Level II site visits on August 17, 1994 and December 13, 1994, indicated that the reach was stable. Localized bank cutting existed at the immediate downstream left bank. The Town Highway 19 crossing of the North Bridgewater Brook is a 26-ft-long, one-lane bridge consisting of one 23-ft steel-beam span (Vermont Agency of Transportation, written commun., August 3, 1994). The bridge is supported by vertical, concrete abutments with wingwalls. Type-2 (less than 3 ft diameter) stone fill protects the upstream left wingwall which is impacted by flow. The channel bed under the bridge is constructed of wood. This construction is preventing channel degradation along the impacted left abutment.The channel is skewed approximately 40 degrees to the opening; the opening-skew-to-roadway is 10 degrees. Additional details describing conditions at the site are included in the Level II Summary and Appendices D and E. Scour depths and rock rip-rap sizes were computed using the general guidelines described in Hydraulic Engineering Circular 18 (Richardson and others, 1993). Total scour at a highway crossing is comprised of three components: 1) long-term streambed degradation; 2) contraction scour (due to accelerated flow caused by a reduction in flow area at a bridge) and; 3) local scour (caused by accelerated flow around piers and abutments). Total scour is the sum of the three components. Equations are available to compute depths for contraction and local scour and a summary of the results of these computations follows. Contraction scour for all modelled flows ranged from 0.0 to 0.8 ft. Abutment scour ranged from 6.6 to 14.9 ft. with the worst-case scenario occurring at the 500-year discharge. Additional information on scour depths and depths to armoring are included in the section titled “Scour Results”. Scoured-streambed elevations, based on the calculated scour depths, are presented in tables 1 and 2. A cross-section of the scour computed at the bridge is presented in figure 8. Scour depths were calculated assuming an infinite depth of erosive material and a homogeneous particle-size distribution. It is generally accepted that the Froehlich equation (abutment scour) gives “excessively conservative estimates of scour depths” (Richardson and others, 1993, p. 48). Many factors, including historical performance during flood events, the geomorphic assessment, scour protection measures, and the results of the hydraulic analyses, must be considered to properly assess the validity of abutment scour results. Therefore, scour depths adopted by VTAOT may differ from the computed values documented herein, based on the consideration of additional contributing factors and experienced engineering judgement.

Vermont

Level II scour analysis for Bridge 35 (BETHTH00190035) on Town Highway 19, crossing Gilead Brook, Bethel, Vermont

This report provides the results of a detailed Level II analysis of scour potential at structure BETHTH00190035 on town highway 19 crossing Gilead Brook, Bethel, Vermont (figures 1–8). A Level II study is a basic engineering analysis of the site, including a quantitative analysis of stream stability and scour (U.S. Department of Transportation, 1993). A Level I study is included in Appendix E of this report. A Level I study provides a qualitative geomorphic characterization of the study site. Information on the bridge available from VTAOT files was compiled prior to conducting Level I and Level II analyses and can be found in Appendix D. The site is in the Green Mountain physiographic province of central Vermont in the town of Bethel. The 6.40-mi 2 drainage area is predominantly rural and forested. In the vicinity of the study site, the immediate banks have woody vegetation coverage with pasture beyond. In the study area, Gilead Brook is an incised, sinuous channel with a slope of approximately 0.015 ft/ft, an average channel top width of 31 ft and an average channel depth of 2.5 ft. The predominant channel bed material is gravel and cobble (D 50 is 62.5 mm or 0.205 ft). The geomorphic assessment at the time of the Level I and Level II site visit on October 20, 1994, indicated that the reach was stable. The town highway 19 crossing of Gilead Brook is a 30-ft-long, one-lane bridge consisting of one 24-foot steel-beam span with timber deck (Vermont Agency of Transportation, written commun., August 24, 1994). The bridge is supported by vertical, concrete abutments with wingwalls. The channel is skewed approximately 5 degrees to the opening while the opening-skew-to-roadway is 10 degrees. The scour protection measures at the site included type-1 stone fill (less than 12 inches diameter) at the downstream wingwalls, left abutment, and upstream right road embankment; type-2 stone fill (less than 36 inches diameter) is at the upstream right wingwall. Additional details describing conditions at the site are included in the Level II Summary and Appendices D and E. Scour depths and rock rip-rap sizes were computed using the general guidelines described in Hydraulic Engineering Circular 18 (Richardson and others, 1993). Total scour at a highway crossing is comprised of three components: 1) long-term streambed degradation; 2) contraction scour (due to accelerated flow caused by a reduction in flow area at a bridge) and; 3) local scour (caused by accelerated flow around piers and abutments). Total scour is the sum of the three components. Equations are available to compute depths for contraction and local scour and a summary of the results of these computations follows. Contraction scour for all modelled flows ranged from 0.1 to 2.1 ft. with the worst-case scenario occurring at the 500-year discharge. Abutment scour ranged from 3.9 to 9.5 ft. The worst-case abutment scour also occurred at the 500-year discharge. Additional information on scour depths and depths to armoring are included in the section titled “Scour Results”. Scoured-streambed elevations, based on the calculated scour depths, are presented in tables 1 and 2. A cross-section of the scour computed at the bridge is presented in figure 8. Scour depths were calculated assuming an infinite depth of erosive material and a homogeneous particle-size distribution. It is generally accepted that the Froehlich equation (abutment scour) gives “excessively conservative estimates of scour depths” (Richardson and others, 1993, p. 48). Many factors, including historical performance during flood events, the geomorphic assessment, scour protection measures, and the results of the hydraulic analyses, must be considered to properly assess the validity of abutment scour results. Therefore, scour depths adopted by VTAOT may differ from the computed values documented herein, based on the consideration of additional contributing factors and experienced engineering judgement.

Vermont

Level II scour analysis for Bridge 51 (RANDTH00SC0051) on School Street, crossing Thayer Brook, Randolph, Vermont

This report provides the results of a detailed Level II analysis of scour potential at structure RANDTH00SC0051 on School Street crossing Thayer Brook, Randolph, Vermont (figures 1–8). A Level II study is a basic engineering analysis of the site, including a quantitative analysis of stream stability and scour (U.S. Department of Transportation, 1993). A Level I study is included in Appendix E of this report. A Level I study provides a qualitative geomorphic characterization of the study site. Information on the bridge available from VTAOT files was compiled prior to conducting Level I and Level II analyses and can be found in Appendix D. The site is in the Green Mountain physiographic division of central Vermont in the town of Randolph. The 5.30-mi 2 drainage area is a predominantly rural basin. In the vicinity of the study site, the left and right banks are forested with residences on the left overbanks. In the study area, Thayer Brook has a sinuous channel with a slope of approximately 0.03 ft/ ft, an average channel top width of 36 ft and an average channel depth of 3 ft. The predominant channel bed materials are gravel and cobble (D 50 is 58.2 mm or 0.191 ft). The geomorphic assessment at the time of the Level I site visits on August 4, 1994 and December 8, 1994, indicated that the reach was stable. The School Street crossing of Thayer Brook is a 39-ft-long, two-lane bridge consisting of one 35-foot concrete span (Vermont Agency of Transportation, written commun., August 2, 1994). The bridge is supported by vertical, concrete abutments with wingwalls. Type-2 stone fill (less than 36 inches diameter) along the downstream left bank was the only existing protection. The approach channel is skewed approximately 45 degrees to the bridge face; the opening-skew-to-roadway is also 45 degrees. Additional details describing conditions at the site are included in the Level II Summary, Appendix D, and Appendix E. Scour depths and rock rip-rap sizes were computed using the general guidelines described in Hydraulic Engineering Circular 18 (Richardson and others, 1993). Total scour at a highway crossing is comprised of three components: 1) long-term streambed degradation; 2) contraction scour (due to accelerated flow caused by a reduction in flow area at a bridge) and; 3) local scour (caused by accelerated flow around piers and abutments). Total scour is the sum of the three components. Equations are available to compute depths for contraction and local scour and a summary of the results of these computations follows. Contraction scour for all modelled flows ranged from 1.0 to 2.2 ft. with the worst-case scenario occurring at the 500-year discharge. Abutment scour ranged from 6.2 to 12.0 ft. The worst-case abutment scour also occurred at the 500-year discharge. Additional information on scour depths and depths to armoring are included in the section titled “Scour Results”. Scoured-streambed elevations, based on the calculated scour depths, are presented in tables 1 and 2. A cross-section of the scour computed at the bridge is presented in figure 8. Scour depths were calculated assuming an infinite depth of erosive material and a homogeneous particle-size distribution. It is generally accepted that the Froehlich equation (abutment scour) gives “excessively conservative estimates of scour depths” (Richardson and others, 1993, p. 48). Many factors, including historical performance during flood events, the geomorphic assessment, scour protection measures, and the results of the hydraulic analyses, must be considered to properly assess the validity of abutment scour results. Therefore, scour depths adopted by VTAOT may differ from the computed values documented herein, based on the consideration of additional contributing factors and experienced engineering judgement.

Vermont

Level II scour analysis for Bridge 51 (BRIDTH00460051) on Town Highway 46, crossing Ottauquechee River, Bridgewater, Vermont

This report provides the results of a detailed Level II analysis of scour potential at structure BRIDTH00460051 on town highway 46 crossing the Ottauquechee River, Bridgewater, Vermont (figures 1–8). A Level II study is a basic engineering analysis of the site, including a quantitative analysis of stream stability and scour (U.S. Department of Transportation, 1993). A Level I study is included in Appendix E of this report. A Level I study provides a qualitative geomorphic characterization of the study site. Information on the bridge available from VTAOT files was compiled prior to conducting Level I and Level II analyses and can be found in Appendix D. The site is in the Green Mountain physiographic division of central Vermont in the town of Bridgewater. The 103-mi 2 drainage area is a predominantly rural basin. In the vicinity of the study site, the immediate left and right banks are covered by trees and brush with residences beyond. In the study area, the Ottauquechee River has a straight channel with a slope of approximately 0.008 ft/ft, an average channel top width of 150 ft and an average channel depth of 6 ft. The predominant channel bed materials are gravel and cobble with a median grain size (D 50 ) of 81.8 mm (0.268 ft). The geomorphic assessment at the time of the Level I and Level II site visit on October 24, 1994, indicated that the reach was stable. The town highway 46 crossing of the Ottauquechee Riveris a 135-ft-long, two-lane bridge consisting of two 66-ft steel-beam spans, supported by vertical, concrete abutments with upstream wingwalls and one concrete pier (Vermont Agency of Transportation, written commun., August 24, 1994). Type-2 stone fill (less than 36 inches diameter) has been placed along the left abutment and both upstream wingwalls. The upstream side of both road embankments are also protected by type-2 stone fill. Abutments of a previous bridge still exist at the downstream side of the present structure’s abutments. The channel is skewed 10 degrees to the bridge face; the opening-skew-to-roadway is 0 degrees. There are remains of a breached dam 160 feet upstream of the bridge which deflect flow toward the left bank. Additional details describing conditions at the site are included in the Level II Summary, Appendix D, and Appendix E. Scour depths and rock rip-rap sizes were computed using the general guidelines described in Hydraulic Engineering Circular 18 (Richardson and others, 1993). Total scour at a highway crossing is comprised of three components: 1) long-term streambed degradation; 2) contraction scour (due to accelerated flow caused by a reduction in flow area at a bridge) and; 3) local scour (caused by accelerated flow around piers and abutments). Total scour is the sum of the three components. Equations are available to compute depths for contraction and local scour and a summary of the results of these computations follows. Contraction scour for all modelled flows ranged from 2.6 to 5.4 ft. The worst-case contraction scour occurred at the incipient overtopping discharge, which was between the 100- and 500-year discharges. Pier scour ranged from 9.9 to 10.9 ft with the worst-case scenario also occurring at the incipient roadway overtopping discharge. Abutment scour ranged from 25.3 to 33.6 ft. with the worst-case occurring at the 500-year discharge. Additional information on scour depths and depths to armoring are included in the section titled “Scour Results”. Scoured-streambed elevations, based on the calculated scour depths, are presented in tables 1 and 2. A cross-section of the scour computed at the bridge is presented in figure 8. Scour depths were calculated assuming an infinite depth of erosive material and a homogeneous particle-size distribution. It is generally accepted that the Froehlich equation (abutment scour) gives “excessively conservative estimates of scour depths” (Richardson and others, 1993, p. 48). Many factors, including historical performance during flood events, the geomorphic assessment, scour protection measures, and the results of the hydraulic analyses, must be considered to properly assess the validity of abutment scour results. Therefore, scour depths adopted by VTAOT may differ from the computed values documented herein, based on the consideration of additional contributing factors and experienced engineering judgement.

Vermont

Level II scour analysis for Bridge 49 (BETHTH00790049) on Town Highway 79, crossing Locust Creek, Bethel, Vermont

This report provides the results of a detailed Level II analysis of scour potential at structure BETHTH00790049 on town highway 79 crossing Locust Creek, Bethel, Vermont (figures 1–8). A Level II study is a basic engineering analysis of the site, including a quantitative analysis of stream stability and scour (U.S. Department of Transportation, 1993). A Level I study is included in Appendix E of this report. A Level I study provides a qualitative geomorphic characterization of the study site. Information on the bridge available from VTAOT files was compiled prior to conducting Level I and Level II analyses and can be found in Appendix D. The site is in the Green Mountain physiographic province of central Vermont in the town of Bethel. The 24.4-mi 2 drainage area is in a predominantly rural and forested basin. In the vicinity of the study site, the banks are forested. In the study area, Locust Creek has an incised, sinuous channel with a slope of approximately 0.015 ft/ft, an average channel top width of 74 ft and an average channel depth of 6 ft. The predominant channel bed material is gravel and cobble (D 50 is 124 mm or 0.407 ft). The geomorphic assessment at the time of the Level I and Level II site visit on September 21 & 26, 1994, respectively, with a check on 12/15/94, indicated that the reach was stable. The town Highway 79 crossing of Locust Creek is a 55-ft-long, one-lane bridge consisting of one 50-foot concrete span (Vermont Agency of Transportation, written commun., August 24, 1994). The bridge is supported by vertical, concrete abutments with wingwalls. The channel is skewed approximately 50 degrees to the opening while the opening-skew-toroadway is 45 degrees. Scour protection measures in place at the site were type-1 stone fill (less than 12 inches diameter) at the upstream right and downstream left road embankment, type-2 stone fill (less than 36 inches diameter) at the upstream left bank, upstream wingwalls, and downstream left wingwall. Additional details describing conditions at the site are included in the Level II Summary and Appendices D and E. Scour depths and rock rip-rap sizes were computed using the general guidelines described in Hydraulic Engineering Circular 18 (Richardson and others, 1993). Total scour at a highway crossing is comprised of three components: 1) long-term degradation; 2) contraction scour (due to accelerated flow caused by a reduction in flow area at a bridge) and; 3) local scour (caused by accelerated flow around piers and abutments). Total scour is the sum of the three components. Equations are available to compute depths for contraction and local scour and a summary of these computed results follow. Contraction scour for all modelled flows ranged from 0.0 ft to 1.0 ft. The worst-case contraction scour occurred at the 100-year discharge. Abutment scour ranged from 10.3 ft to 13.3 ft. with the worst-case abutment scour also occurring at the 100-year discharge. Additional information on scour depths and depths to armoring are included in the section titled “Scour Results”. Scoured-streambed elevations, based on the calculated depths, are presented in tables 1 and 2. A cross-section of the computed scour at the bridge is presented in figure 8. Scour depths were calculated assuming an infinite depth of erosive material and a homogeneous particle-size distribution. It is generally accepted that the Froehlich equation (abutment scour) gives “excessively conservative estimates of scour depths” (Richardson and others, 1993, p. 22). Many factors, including historical performance during flood events, the geomorphic assessment, scour protection, and the results of the hydraulic analyses, must be considered to properly assess the validity of abutment scour results. Therefore, scour depths adopted by VTAOT may differ from the computed values documented herein, based on the consideration of additional contributing factors and experienced engineering judgement.

Vermont

Level II scour analysis for Bridge 37 (BRIDTH00050037) on Town Highway 5, crossing North Branch Ottauquechee River, Bridgewater, Vermont

This report provides the results of a detailed Level II analysis of scour potential at structure BRIDTH00050037 on town highway 5 crossing the North Branch Ottauquechee River, Bridgewater, Vermont (figures 1–8). A Level II study is a basic engineering analysis of the site, including a quantitative analysis of stream stability and scour (U.S. Department of Transportation, 1993). A Level I study is included in Appendix E of this report. A Level I study provides a qualitative geomorphic characterization of the study site. Information on the bridge available from VTAOT files was compiled prior to conducting Level I and Level II analyses and can be found in Appendix D. The site is in the Green Mountain physiographic province of central Vermont in the town of Bridgewater. The 10.5-mi 2 drainage area is a predominantly rural basin. In the vicinity of the study site, the left and right banks are forested. Town highway 5 runs parallel to the upstream left and downstream right banks. In the study area, the North Branch Ottauquechee River has a sinuous channel with a slope of approximately 0.013 ft/ft, an average channel top width of 50 ft and an average channel depth of 5 ft. The predominant channel bed materials are gravel and cobble (D 50 is 79.3 mm or 0.260 ft). The geomorphic assessment at the time of the Level I and Level II site visit on November 2, 1994, indicated that the reach was stable. The town highway 5 crossing of the North Branch Ottauquechee Riveris a 38-ft-long, onelane bridge consisting of one 35-foot steel beam span (Vermont Agency of Transportation, written commun., August 25, 1994). The bridge is supported by vertical, stone abutments with wingwalls. The right abutment has settled due to scour. Type-3 stone fill (less than 36 inches diameter) provides protection to the upstream end of the upstream left wingwall and the base of the downstream right wingwall. The channel is skewed approximately 35 degrees; the opening-skew-to-roadway is 20 degrees. Additional details describing conditions at the site are included in the Level II Summary and Appendix E. Scour depths and rock rip-rap sizes were computed using the general guidelines described in Hydraulic Engineering Circular 18 (Richardson and others, 1993). Total scour at a highway crossing is comprised of three components: 1) long-term streambed degradation; 2) contraction scour (due to accelerated flow caused by a reduction in flow area at a bridge) and; 3) local scour (caused by accelerated flow around piers and abutments). Total scour is the sum of the three components. Equations are available to compute depths for contraction and local scour and a summary of the results of these computations follows. Contraction scour for all modelled flows ranged from 0.4 to 1.5 ft. The worst-case contraction scour occurred at the incipient overtopping discharge, which was less than the 100-year discharge. Abutment scour ranged from 11.0 to 14.9 ft. The worst-case abutment scour occurred at the 500-year discharge. Additional information on scour depths and depths to armoring are included in the section titled “Scour Results”. Scoured-streambed elevations, based on the calculated scour depths, are presented in tables 1 and 2. A crosssection of the scour computed at the bridge is presented in figure 8. Scour depths were calculated assuming an infinite depth of erosive material and a homogeneous particle-size distribution. It is generally accepted that the Froehlich equation (abutment scour) gives “excessively conservative estimates of scour depths” (Richardson and others, 1993, p. 48). Many factors, including historical performance during flood events, the geomorphic assessment, scour protection measures, and the results of the hydraulic analyses, must be considered to properly assess the validity of abutment scour results. Therefore, scour depths adopted by VTAOT may differ from the computed values documented herein, based on the consideration of additional contributing factors and experienced engineering judgement.

Vermont

Level II scour analysis for Bridge 42 (BETHTH00860042) on Town Highway 86, crossing Gilead Brook, Bethel, Vermont

This report provides the results of a detailed Level II analysis of scour potential at structure BETHTH00860042 on town highway 86 crossing Gilead Brook, Bethel, Vermont (figures 1–8). A Level II study is a basic engineering analysis of the site, including a quantitative analysis of stream stability and scour (U.S. Department of Transportation, 1993). A Level I study is included in Appendix E of this report. A Level I study provides a qualitative geomorphic characterization of the study site. Information on the bridge available from VTAOT files were compiled prior to conducting Level I and Level II analyses and can be found in Appendix D. The site is in the Green Mountain physiographic province of central Vermont in the town of Bethel. The 11.4-mi 2 drainage area is in a predominantly rural and forested basin. In the vicinity of the study site, the upstream banks are tree covered and the downstream banks are covered with shrubs and brush. In the study area, Gilead Brook is probably incised, has a sinuous channel with a slope of approximately 0.012 ft/ft, an average channel top width of 53 ft, and an average channel depth of 5 ft. The predominant channel bed material is gravel to cobbles (D 50 is 85.6 mm or 0.281 ft). The geomorphic assessment at the time of the Level I and Level II site visit on September 30, 1994, indicated that the reach was stable. The town highway 86 crossing of Gilead Brook is a 28-ft-long, one-lane bridge consisting of one 25-foot clear-span structure with a concrete deck (Vermont Agency of Transportation, written commun., August 24, 1994). The bridge is supported by concrete abutments with wingwalls. The bridge skew is approximately 5 degrees and there is no opening-skew-to-roadway. A scour hole approximately 1 ft deeper than the mean thalweg depth was observed along the left bank, near the upstream bridge face during the Level I assessment. There is also approximately 1 ft of scour along the left abutment of the bridge, near the upstream wing wall, exposing the footing. There is type-one (less than 12 in diameter) protection on the US left wingwall and type-two (less than 36 in diameter) along the US and DS right wingwalls. There is no protection along the abutments. Additional details describing conditions at the site are included in the Level II Summary and Appendices D and E. Scour depths and rock rip-rap sizes were computed using the general guidelines described in Hydraulic Engineering Circular 18 (Richardson and others, 1995). Total scour at a highway crossing is comprised of three components: 1) long-term streambed degradation; 2) contraction scour (due to accelerated flow caused by a reduction in flow area at a bridge) and; 3) local scour (caused by accelerated flow around piers and abutments). Total scour is the sum of the three components. Equations are available to compute depths for contraction and local scour and a summary of the results of these computations follows. Contraction scour for all modelled flows ranged from 0 to 1.9 ft. The worst-case contraction scour occurred at the incipient-overtopping discharge and the 100-year discharge. Abutment scour ranged from 8.6 to 15.7 ft. The worst-case abutment scour occurred at the 500-year discharge. Additional information on scour depths and depths to armoring are included in the section titled “Scour Results”. Scoured-streambed elevations, based on the calculated scour depths, are presented in tables 1 and 2. A cross-section of the scour computed at the bridge is presented in figure 8. Scour depths were calculated assuming an infinite depth of erosive material and a homogeneous particle-size distribution. It is generally accepted that the Froehlich equation (abutment scour) gives “excessively conservative estimates of scour depths” (Richardson and others, 1995, p. 47). Many factors, including historical performance during flood events, the geomorphic assessment, scour protection, and the results of the hydraulic analyses, must be considered to properly assess the validity of abutment scour results. Therefore, scour depths adopted by VTAOT may differ from the computed values documented herein, based on the consideration of additional contributing factors and engineering judgement.

Vermont

Level II scour analysis for Bridge 46 (BRIDTH00050046) on Town Highway 05, crossing North Branch Ottauquechee River, Bridgewater, Vermont

This report provides the results of a detailed Level II analysis of scour potential at structure BRIDTH00050046 on town highway 5 crossing the North Branch Ottauquechee River, Bridgewater, Vermont (figures 1–8). A Level II study is a basic engineering analysis of the site, including a quantitative analysis of stream stability and scour (U.S. Department of Transportation, 1993). A Level I study is included in Appendix E of this report. A Level I study provides a qualitative geomorphic characterization of the study site. Information on the bridge, gleaned from Vermont Agency of Transportation (VTAOT) files was compiled prior to conducting Level I and Level II analyses and can be found in Appendix D. The site is in the Green Mountain physiographic province of central Vermont in the town of Bridgewater. The 5.61-mi 2 drainage area is a predominantly rural and forested basin. In the vicinity of the study site, the banks are forested. Town highway 5 parallels the upstream left bank. In the study area, the North Branch Ottauquechee River has a sinuous channel with a slope of approximately 0.015 ft/ft, an average channel top width of 48 ft and an average channel depth of 6 ft. The predominant channel bed materials are gravel and cobble with a median grain size (D 50 ) of 66.2 mm (0.217 ft). The geomorphic assessment at the time of the Level I and Level II site visit on November 2 and 3, 1994, indicated that the reach was stable. The town highway 5 crossing of North Branch Ottauquechee Riveris a 40-ft-long, one-lane bridge consisting of a 34-ft steel-beam span, supported by vertical abutments with no wingwalls (Vermont Agency of Transportation, written communication, August 25, 1994). The left abutment is stone; the right abutment is log cribwork with type-2 stone fill (less than 36 inches diameter) along its base. Type-2 stone fill has also been placed on the upstream and downstream sides of the road embankments, except the upstream left which has type-3 (less than 48 inches diameter). The channel is skewed approximately 60 degrees; the opening-skew-to-roadway is 30 degrees. Additional details describing conditions at the site are included in the Level II Summary, Appendix D, and Appendix E. Scour depths and rock rip-rap sizes were computed using the general guidelines described in Hydraulic Engineering Circular 18 (Richardson and others, 1993). Total scour at a highway crossing is comprised of three components: 1) long-term degradation; 2) contraction scour (due to accelerated flow caused by a reduction in flow area at a bridge) and; 3) local scour (caused by accelerated flow around piers and abutments). Total scour is the sum of the three components. Equations are available to compute depths for contraction and local scour and a summary of these computed results follow. Contraction scour for all modelled flows was 0.0 ft. Abutment scour ranged from 5.7 ft to 7.7 ft. with the worst-case abutment scour occurring at the 500-year discharge. Additional information on scour depths and depths to armoring are included in the section titled “Scour Results”. Scoured-streambed elevations, based on the calculated depths, are presented in tables 1 and 2. A cross-section of the computed scour at the bridge is presented in figure 8. Scour depths were calculated assuming an infinite depth of erosive material and a homogeneous particle-size distribution. It is generally accepted that the Froehlich equation (abutment scour) gives “excessively conservative estimates of scour depths” (Richardson and others, 1993, p. 22). Many factors, including historical performance during flood events, the geomorphic assessment, scour protection, and the results of the hydraulic analyses, must be considered to properly assess the validity of abutment scour results. Therefore, scour depths adopted by VTAOT may differ from the computed values documented herein, based on the consideration of additional contributing factors and experienced engineering judgement.

Vermont

Level II scour analysis for Bridge 25 (CRAFTH00220025) on Town Highway 22, crossing the Wild Branch Lamoille River, Craftsbury, Vermont

This report provides the results of a detailed Level II analysis of scour potential at structure CRAFTH00220025 on town highway 22 crossing the Wild Branch Lamoille River, Craftsbury, Vermont (figures 1–8). A Level II study is a basic engineering analysis of the site, including a quantitative analysis of stream stability and scour (U.S. Department of Transportation, 1993). A Level I study is included in Appendix E of this report. A Level I study provides a qualitative geomorphic characterization of the study site. Information on the bridge, gleaned from Vermont Agency of Transportation (VTAOT) files, was compiled prior to conducting Level I and Level II analyses and can be found in Appendix D. The site is in the New England Upland physiographic province of north-central Vermont in the town of Bridgewater. The 9.52-mi 2 drainage area is in a predominantly rural basin with some pasture on the valley bottom. In the vicinity of the study site, the banks have less than 25% woody vegetation coverage. In the study area, the Wild Branch Lamoille River has a meandering channel in a low relief valley setting with wide flood plains and a slope of approximately 0.0044 ft/ft, an average channel top width of 35 ft and an average channel depth of 4 ft. The predominant channel bed material is gravel (D 50 is 38.6 mm or 0.127 ft). The geomorphic assessment at the time of the Level I and Level II site visit on November 9, 1994, indicated that the reach was laterally unstable. The town highway 22 crossing of the Wild Branch Lamoille Riveris a 31-ft-long, two-lane bridge consisting of one 29-foot span concrete slab superstructure (Vermont Agency of Transportation, written commun., August 4, 1994). The bridge is supported by vertical, concrete abutments with wingwalls. The channel is skewed approximately 20 degrees to the opening and the opening-skew-to-roadway is 20 degrees. A scour hole 1.5 ft deeper than the mean thalweg depth was observed along the left bank side of the channel upstream during the Level I assessment. There are tall, steep stone fill embankments (artificial levees) that make up both banks between 50 feet upstream and the upstream face of the bridge, which straighten and constrict the channel. Type-2 stone fill (less than 36 inches diameter) is reported on the banks upstream, the upstream wingwalls, the abutments, the downstream left wingwall, and the downstream left bank. Additional details describing conditions at the site are included in the Level II Summary and Appendices D and E. Scour depths and rock rip-rap sizes were computed using the general guidelines described in Hydraulic Engineering Circular 18 (Richardson and others, 1995). Total scour at a highway crossing is comprised of three components: 1) long-term streambed degradation; 2) contraction scour (due to accelerated flow caused by a reduction in flow area at a bridge) and; 3) local scour (caused by accelerated flow around piers and abutments). Total scour is the sum of the three components. Equations are available to compute depths for contraction and local scour and a summary of the results of these computations follows. Contraction scour for all modelled flows ranged from 0.0 to 2.5 ft. The worst-case contraction scour occurred at the incipient overtopping discharge, which was less than the 100-year discharge. Abutment scour ranged from 4.7 to 8.6 ft. The worst-case abutment scour also occurred at the incipient overtopping discharge. Additional information on scour depths and depths to armoring are included in the section titled “Scour Results”. Scoured-streambed elevations, based on the calculated scour depths, are presented in tables 1 and 2. A cross-section of the scour computed at the bridge is presented in figure 8. Scour depths were calculated assuming an infinite depth of erosive material and a homogeneous particle-size distribution. It is generally accepted that the Froehlich equation (abutment scour) gives “excessively conservative estimates of scour depths” (Richardson and others, 1995, p. 47). Many factors, including historical performance during flood events, the geomorphic assessment, scour protection, and the results of the hydraulic analyses, must be considered to properly assess the validity of abutment scour results. Therefore, scour depths adopted by VTAOT may differ from the computed values documented herein, based on the consideration of additional contributing factors and experienced engineering judgement.

Vermont

Level II scour analysis for Bridge 4 (MNTGTH00020004) on Town Highway 2, crossing Wade Brook, Montgomery, Vermont

This report provides the results of a detailed Level II analysis of scour potential at structure MNTGTH00020004 on town highway 2 crossing Wade Brook, Montgomery, Vermont (figures 1–8). A Level II study is a basic engineering analysis of the site, including a quantitative analysis of stream stability and scour (U.S. Department of Transportation, 1993). A Level I study is included in Appendix E of this report. A Level I study provides a qualitative geomorphic characterization of the study site. Information on the bridge, gleaned from VTAOT files, was compiled prior to conducting Level I and Level II analyses and can be found in Appendix D. The site is in the Green Mountain physiographic province of north-central Vermont in the town of Montgomery. The 1.68-mi 2 drainage area is in a predominantly rural and forested basin. In the vicinity of the study site, the banks have woody vegetation coverage. In the study area, Wade Brook has an incised, sinuous channel with a slope of approximately 0.0454 ft/ft, an average channel top width of 30 ft and an average channel depth of 2 ft. The predominant channel bed materials are gravel and cobbles (D 50 is 77.7 mm or 0.255 ft). The geomorphic assessment at the time of the Level I and Level II site visit on November 8, 1994, indicated that the reach was degraded. There were no scour holes observed during the Level I assessment. However, general streambed lowering was evident as both abutments were undermined equally with no localized scour on one abutment over the other. The town highway 2 crossing of Wade Brook is a 23-ft-long, two-lane bridge consisting of one 20-foot concrete slab span (Vermont Agency of Transportation, written communication, August 3, 1994). The bridge is supported by vertical, concrete abutments with wingwalls. The channel is skewed approximately 30 degrees to the opening while the computed opening-skew-to-roadway is 25 degrees. The scour protection measures at the site were type-1 stone fill (less than 12 inches diameter) on the upstream right wingwall and all road approach embankments, type-2 stone fill (less than 36 inches diameter) on the left abutment, and a “laid-up” stone wall at the upstream end of the upstream left wingwall and in front of the upstream left bank. Additional details describing conditions at the site are included in the Level II Summary and Appendices D and E. Scour depths and rock rip-rap sizes were computed using the general guidelines described in Hydraulic Engineering Circular 18 (Richardson and others, 1995). Total scour at a highway crossing is comprised of three components: 1) long-term streambed degradation; 2) contraction scour (due to accelerated flow caused by a reduction in flow area at a bridge) and; 3) local scour (caused by accelerated flow around piers and abutments). Total scour is the sum of the three components. Equations are available to compute depths for contraction and local scour and a summary of the results of these computations follows. Contraction scour for all modelled flows was 0.1 ft. The worst-case contraction scour occurred at the 100-year and 500-year discharges. Abutment scour ranged from 3.9 to 5.2 ft. The worst-case abutment scour also occurred at the 500-year discharge. Additional information on scour depths and depths to armoring are included in the section titled “Scour Results”. Scoured-streambed elevations, based on the calculated scour depths, are presented in tables 1 and 2. A cross-section of the scour computed at the bridge is presented in figure 8. Scour depths were calculated assuming an infinite depth of erosive material and a homogeneous particle-size distribution. It is generally accepted that the Froehlich equation (abutment scour) gives “excessively conservative estimates of scour depths” (Richardson and others, 1995, p. 47). Many factors, including historical performance during flood events, the geomorphic assessment, scour protection measures, and the results of the hydraulic analyses, must be considered to properly assess the validity of abutment scour results. Therefore, scour depths adopted by VTAOT may differ from the computed values documented herein, based on the consideration of additional contributing factors and experienced engineering judgement.

Vermont

Hydrogeologic framework, ground-water quality, and simulation of ground-water flow at the Fair Lawn Well Field Superfund site, Bergen County, New Jersey

Production wells in the Westmoreland well field, Fair Lawn, Bergen County, New Jersey (the 'Fair Lawn well field Superfund site'), are contaminated with volatile organic compounds, particularly trichloroethylene, tetrachloroethylene, and 1,1,1-trichloroethane. In 1983, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) placed the Westmoreland well field on its National Priority List of Superfund sites. In an effort to determine ground-water flow directions, contaminant-plume boundaries, and contributing areas to production wells in Fair Lawn, and to evaluate the effect of present pump-and-treat systems on flowpaths of contaminated ground water, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the USEPA, developed a conceptual hydrogeologic framework and ground-water flow model of the study area. MODFLOW-2000, the USGS three-dimensional finite-difference model, was used to delineate contributing areas to production wells in Fair Lawn and to compute flowpaths of contaminated ground water from three potential contaminant sources to the Westmoreland well field. Straddle-packer tests were used to determine the hydrologic framework of, distribution of contaminants in, and hydrologic properties of water-bearing and confining units that make up the fractured-rock aquifer underlying the study area. The study area consists of about 15 square miles in and near Fair Lawn. The area is underlain by 6 to 100 feet of glacial deposits and alluvium that, in turn, are underlain by the Passaic Formation. In the study area, the Passaic Formation consists of brownish-red pebble conglomerate, medium- to coarse-grained feldspathic sandstone, and micaceous siltstone. The bedrock strata strike N. 9o E. and dip 6.5o to the northwest. The bedrock consists of alternating layers of densely fractured rocks and sparsely fractured rocks, forming a fractured-rock aquifer. Ground-water flow in the fractured-rock aquifer is anisotropic as a result of the interlayering of dipping water-bearing and confining units. Wells of similar depth aligned along the strike of the bedding intersect the same water-bearing units, but wells aligned along the dip of the bedding may intersect different water-bearing units. Consequently, wells aligned along strike are in greater hydraulic connection than wells aligned along dip. The Borough of Fair Lawn pumps approximately 770 million gallons per year from 13 production wells. Hydrographs from six observation wells ranging in depth from 162 to 505 feet in Fair Lawn show that water levels in much of the study area are affected by pumping. Straddle packers were used to isolate discrete intervals within six open-hole observation wells owned by the Fair Lawn Water Department. Transmissivity, water-quality, and static-water-level data were obtained from the isolated intervals. Measured transmissivity ranged from near 0 to 8,900 feet squared per day. The broad range in measured transmissivity is a result of the heterogeneity of the fractured-rock aquifer. Eight water-bearing units and eight confining units were identified in the study area on the basis of transmissivity. The water-bearing units range in thickness from 21 to 95 feet; the mean thickness is 50 feet. The confining units range in thickness from 22 to 248 feet; the mean thickness is 83 feet. Water-level and water-quality data indicate effective separation of water-bearing units by the confining units. Water-quality samples were collected from the six observation wells at 16 depth intervals isolated by the straddle packers in 2000 and 2001. Concentrations of volatile organic compounds generally were low in samples from four of the wells, but were higher in samples from a well in Fair Lawn Industrial Park and in a well in the Westmoreland well field. The digital ground-water flow model was used to simulate steady-state scenarios representing conditions in the study area in 1991 and 2000. These years were chosen because during the intervening period,

Scientific Investigations Report

Status of the lake trout fishery in Lake Superior

The production of lake trout in the United States waters of Lake Superior was low (only 1,465,000 pounds) in 1879, the first year for which there is a record. Expansion of the fishery must have started soon thereafter, for the take was 3,488,000 pounds in 1885, the next year for which we have statistics, and averaged 3,416,000 pounds in 1885–1892. The years after 1892 can be divided readily into three general periods with average yields as follows: 1893–1907–4,599,000 pounds; 1908–1925–2,168,000 pounds; 1926–1949–3,049,000 pounds. A take of 3 million pounds can be held as “normal” in the modern fishery. During the three periods just listed the percentage contributions of the individual states to the United States total (as computed from the averages for individual periods) ranged from 65.1 to 71.5 for Michigan, 17.5 to 25.6 for Wisconsin, and from 9.3 to 11.0 for Minnesota. In the Canadian (Province of Ontario) waters of Lake Superior the average annual output of lake trout rose from 309,000 pounds in 1871–1882 to 900,000 pounds in 1883–1893, 1,567,000 pounds in 1894–1903, and 2,189,000 pounds in 1904–1918. This last period of relatively high yield was followed by two intervals of successively lower average catches–1,691,000 pounds in 1919–1929 and 1,395,000 pounds in 1930–1949. For the combined United States and Canadian waters of Lake Superior the general trends in the production of lake trout can be described by the following averages: 1879–1,653,000 pounds: 1885–1892–4,325,000 pounds; 1893–1907–6,236,000 pounds; 1908–1949–4,403,000 pounds. The short‐term fluctuations of production during the more recent years give evidence of periodicity in the output of lake trout in Michigan, Ontario, and in the entire lake. Furthermore, these periodic fluctuations tended to be similar in Michigan and Ontario waters. The coefficient of correlation (r) between production in Michigan and Ontario in 1920–1949 (after elimination of trend in the statistics for both areas) had the significant value of 0.456. This correlation suggests that Michigan and Ontario fishermen exploit a common stock or stocks subject to similar fluctuations. Statistics on the production of lake trout in 5 of the 6 statistical districts of the State of Michigan waters of Lake Superior (see Fig. 2 for boundaries of the districts) in 1885 suggest that in most areas the fishery was then in the process of development. Even in 1891–1908 when the general level of production was high, there is evidence that during certain periods the catch in some areas was influenced strongly by factors (such as accessibility to market) other than the natural productivity of the waters. Comparisons of the average annual output of lake trout in the individual districts in 1891–1908 and 1929–1943 (the base period for our modern statistical analysis) reveal an enormous decrease in the Whitefish Bay region (S‐6) from 916,000 pounds in 1891–1908 to only 177,000 pounds in 1929–1943, a substantial drop (from 655,000 pounds to 385,000 pounds) in the Marquette‐Munising area (S‐4), and a small decrease (from 141,000 pounds to 138,000 pounds) in the Black River‐Ontonagon district (S‐2). Among the remaining districts the average yearly take increased from 322,000 pounds in 1891–1908 to 354,000 pounds in 1929–1943 at Isle Royal (S‐1), from 428,000 pounds to 501,000 pounds in the Grand Marais district (S‐5), and from 422,000 pounds to 506,000 pounds in the Keweenaw area (S‐3). These changes in the catch resulted in a westward shifting of production centers. Districts S‐1, S‐2, and S‐3 which together contributed only 30.7 percent of the 1891–1908 catch accounted for 48.4 percent of the take in 1929–1943. The 1929–1949 production in all districts exhibited periodic fluctuations that were characterized by peaks in the middle 1930ˈs and middle 1940ˈs. The indices of abundance or availability as computed from records of the catch of lake trout per unit of fishing effort showed periodic fluctuations in all districts of the State of Michigan waters similar to those of production (the peaks and the intervening minima fell a little earlier in the curves of abundance than in the production curves). For the combined districts the abundance of lake trout, expressed as a percentage of the 1929–1943 mean, stood at 108 in 1929, dropped to 100 in 1931, rose to a 21‐year high of 137 in 1934, decreased to 80 in 1940, increased again to 107 in 1944 and then fell to the 21‐year low of 65 in 1949 (this last decline was interrupted by a small increase in 1947). The 1929–1949 fluctuations in abundance were similar in the 5 mainland districts (S‐2 through S‐6). The coefficients of correlation (r) were significant for all 10 pairings and those for the 4 easterly districts (S‐3 through S‐6) were extremely high (p < 0.001 for all 6 values). Thus we have evidence that the fishermen along the mainland exploit common stocks or stocks in which the factors controlling availability are the same or subject to closely similar fluctuations. The fluctuations in abundance in S‐1 were correlated significantly (p < 0.05) with those in S‐2 but otherwise appeared to be independent of conditions along the mainland. The distinctly cyclic fluctuations that characterized the statistics on production and abundance were much less apparent in the 1929–1949 data on fishing intensity in the State of Michigan districts. In districts S‐3, S‐4, and S‐5 a possible tendency toward a cyclic fluctuation seems to have been obscured by a long‐term upward trend that was becoming stronger toward the end of the 21‐year period. For the combined districts the level of fishing pressure was consistently high after 1943. Over the 6‐year period, 1944–1949, fishing intensity expressed as a percentage of the 1929–1943 mean averaged 142; for the most recent 4 years, 1946–1949 the average intensity index was 151. On the whole, the 1929–1949 production of lake trout in the State of Michigan waters of Lake Superior was unreliable as an indicator of changes in abundance. The coefficient of correlation between the fluctuations of catch and abundance was, to be sure, positive and significant in S‐1 (p < 0.05) and S‐6 (p < 0.01), but in the remaining districts and for the combined districts the values of the coefficient were far below the level of significance. The failure of production to serve better as an indicator of changes in abundance can be attributed to the negative correlation that existed between abundance and fishing intensity (values of r highly significant in every district but S‐6 and for the combined districts). The relationship suggests that fishermen have increased their fishing pressure in order to maintain their production during the recent years of declining abundance. The condition of the lake trout fishery of the State of Michigan waters of Lake Superior must be termed unhealthy and the outlook for the future is not good. Production in 1949 stood at 106 percent of the 1929–1943 mean, but this level of yield was made possible only by fishing intensity that was 162 percent of average; the abundance index in 1949 was only 65. Certainly the stocks of lake trout are in a poor state to withstand the threatened inroads of sea lampreys which have been taken from all parts of Lake Superior and are known to have established spawning runs at least as far west as the Keweenaw Peninsula.

Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin

Nutrient loads in the Lost River and Klamath River Basins, south-central Oregon and northern California, March 2012–March 2015

The U.S. Geological Survey and Bureau of Reclamation collected water-quality data from March 2012 to March 2015 at locations in the Lost River and Klamath River Basins, Oregon, in an effort to characterize water quality and compute a nutrient budget for the Bureau of Reclamation Klamath Reclamation Project. The study described in this report resulted in the following significant findings: Total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), 5-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5), and 5-day carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand (CBOD5) loads, calculated using the U.S. Geological Survey LOADEST software package at the upper and lower boundaries of the Klamath Reclamation Project, indicated higher loads at the upper boundary on the southern end of Upper Klamath Lake upstream of the Bureau of Reclamation A Canal diversion compared to the lower boundary on the Klamath River downstream of Keno Dam. Accounting for the diversion of loads down A Canal, BOD5 and CBOD5 loads decreased between these two sites during irrigation season, indicating that the Klamath Reclamation Project is not a large source of oxygen-demanding material and that much of the oxygen demand at study site FMT, the northern boundary of the study area, has been expressed by the time the same water passes through site KRK, the southern boundary of the study area. An evaluation of the nutrient balance along the Klamath River flowpath from sites FMT to KRK indicated that, during irrigation season in the 3 years of the study period (March 2012–March 2015), more loads of TP, TN, BOD5, and CBOD5 were being diverted from the Klamath River than were being added to the Klamath River from the combination of Klamath Straits Drain, regulated point sources along the Klamath River, and internal loading from the bottom sediments in the river. By contrast, during non-irrigation seasons, more loads were added to the Klamath River than were diverted through Ady and North Canals, and this difference primarily was due to additional loads to the river from the Lost River Diversion Channel. At the Lost River Diversion Channel, BOD5 loads were higher during irrigation season than non-irrigation season in all three study years owing to the high concentrations of oxygen-demanding cyanobacterial biomass from the seasonal blooms of Aphanizomenon flos-aquae in the Klamath River and Upper Klamath Lake. The difference between the two seasons was particularly large in years 2 and 3, when the low flows of these two drought years resulted in smaller nonirrigation period loads than in year 1. CBOD5 loads also were higher during irrigation season in years 2 and 3 than during non-irrigation season, indicating that the largest oxygen demand was coming from senescence of Aphanizomenon flos-aquae cells that are present in the Klamath River during the summer. However, during irrigation season in year 1, CBOD5 loads were lower than in the non-irrigation season, which may indicate that at times high concentrations of ammonia or cellular organic nitrogen leaving Upper Klamath Lake contribute a large nitrogenous oxygen demand as well. The smallest loads were computed for the farthest upstream sites in the Lost River Basin, suggesting that the upper Lost River Basin does not contribute substantial loads of TP, TN, BOD5, and CBOD5 to the Klamath Reclamation Project. Median concentrations of BOD5 and CBOD5 were lowest among the upper Lost River Basin sites and highest at site PPD (however, this comparison is based on only four samples collected at site PPD over the 3-year study). Median concentrations of BOD5 and CBOD5 also were elevated at sites KSDH (6.60 and 4.70 milligrams per liter [mg/L], respectively) and KSD97 (4.47 and 3.45 mg/L, respectively). The highest maximum BOD5 and CBOD5 concentrations were reported at the Lost River Diversion Channel (39.0 and 26.5 mg/L, respectively) when water was flowing from the Klamath River toward the Klamath Reclamation Project, and site FMT (25.0 and 23.9 mg/L, respectively), the study site at the southern end of Upper Klamath Lake. Carbonaceous oxygen demand, as represented by CBOD5, typically dominated the composition of the samples at all sites. The highest concentrations of dissolved organic carbon were present at sites KSDH (the headworks of Klamath Straits Drain) and KSD97 (Klamath Straits drain before it enters the Klamath River), and PPD (outlet of Tule Lake). Median concentrations of TN and TP at the upper Lost River Basin sites in years 1 and 2 were variable, but site MCRV showed a smaller range of values in those years compared to the other upper Lost River Basins sites, and an overall lower median concentration during irrigation seasons in years 1 and 2, suggesting that Gerber Reservoir does not contribute high concentrations of nutrients to the Lost River during irrigation season. Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) load allocations for TP and TN in Klamath Straits Drain were exceeded in all three study years. BOD5 load allocations were exceeded in years 1 and 2, but not year 3. TMDL load allocations for TP were exceeded in the Lost River Diversion Channel for all 3 years. Load allocations for TN were exceeded in year 1, but not in years 2 and 3. BOD5 loads were less than the TMDL load allocation for all three study years. The dearth of samples collected at the Klamath Straits Drain just downstream of the Lower Klamath National Wildlife Refuge did not allow for direct assessment of the Klamath Straits Drain acting as a nutrient source or sink. TP, TN, BOD5, and CBOD5 loads estimated during the study period likely were smaller than long-term average conditions because of persistent drought conditions in the Upper Klamath Basin. The study results, therefore, fail to characterize loads from the Klamath Reclamation Project to the Klamath River that could be present in typical years, and suggest the need for load assessments during average or aboveaverage streamflow years.

California, Oregon

Water use and availability in the Woonasquatucket and Moshassuck River basins, north-central Rhode Island

The Woonasquatucket River Basin includes 51.0 square miles, and the Moshassuck River Basin includes 23.8 square miles in north-central Rhode Island. The study area comprises these two basins. The two basins border each other with the Moshassuck River Basin to the northeast of the Woonasquatucket River Basin. Seven towns are in the Woonasquatucket River Basin, and six towns are in the Moshassuck River Basin. To determine the water use and availability in the study area, water supply and discharge data were collected for these river basins for the 1995–99 period, and compared to estimated long-term water available. The study area is unique in the State of Rhode Island, because no withdrawals from major public suppliers were made during the study period. Withdrawals were, therefore, limited to self-supplied domestic use, two minor suppliers, and one self-supplied industrial user. Because no metered data were available, the summer water withdrawals were assumed to be the same as the estimates for the rest of the year. Seven major water suppliers distribute an average of 17.564 million gallons per day for use in the study area from sources outside of the study area. The withdrawals from minor water suppliers were 0.017 million gallons per day in the study area, all in the town of Smithfield in the Woonasquatucket River Basin. The remaining withdrawals in the study area were estimated to be 0.731 million gallons per day by self-supplied domestic, commercial, industrial, and agricultural users. Return flows in the study area included self-disposed water and disposal from permitted dischargers, including the Smithfield Sewage Treatment Plant. Return flows accounted for 4.116 million gallons per day in the study area. Most public-disposed water (15.195 million gallons per day) is collected by the Narragansett Bay Commission and is disposed outside of the basin in Narragansett Bay. The PART program, a computerized hydrograph-separation application, was used at one index stream-gaging station to determine water availability based on the 75th, 50th, and 25th percentiles of the total base flow, the base flow minus the 7-day, 10-year flow criteria, and the base flow minus the Aquatic Base Flow criteria. The index station selected was the Branch River at Forestdale, which is close to the study area and has a similar percentage of sand and gravel area. Water availability was estimated on the basis of baseflow contributions from sand and gravel deposits and till deposits at the index station. Flows were computed for June, July, August, and September 1957–2000, and a percentage of the total flow was determined to come from either sand and gravel deposits, or till, by using a regression equation. The base-flow contributions were converted to a flow per unit area at the station for the till and for the sand and gravel deposits and then applied to the deposits in the study area basins. These values were used to estimate the gross yield of base flow, as well as to subtract the two low flows (7-day, 10-year flow, and Aquatic Base Flow criteria). The results from the Branch River stream-gaging station were lowest in August at the 75th, 50th, and 25th percentile for total flow with either flow criteria subtracted. The estimated August gross yield at the 50th percentile from the Woonasquatucket River Basin was 12.94 million gallons per day, and 5.91 million gallons per day from the Moshassuck River Basin. A ratio was calculated that is equal to total withdrawals divided by water availability. Water-availability flow scenarios at the 75th, 50th, and 25th percentiles for the basins, which are based on total water available from base-flow contributions from till and sand and gravel deposits in the basins, were assessed. The ratios were the highest in July for the 50th percentile estimated gross yield minus Aquatic Base Flow (ABF) flow criteria, where withdrawals are close to the available water. Ratios are not presented if the available water is less than the flow criteria. The ratio of withdrawals to the July gross yield at the 50th percentile minus Aquatic Base Flow was 0.796 for the Woonasquatucket and 0.275 for the Moshassuck River Basin. A long-term hydrologic budget was calculated for the period of 1956–2000 for the Woonasquatucket River Basin and the period of 1964–2000 for the Moshassuck River Basin. The water withdrawals and return flows used in the budget were from 1995 through 1999. For the hydrologic budget, inflow was assumed to equal outflow and was about 120 million gallons per day in the Woonasquatucket River Basin and 56 million gallons per day in the Moshassuck River Basin. The estimated inflows from precipitation and water return flow were 97.3 and 2.7 percent, respectively, in the Woonasquatucket River Basin, and 98.3 and 1.7 percent, respectively, in the Moshassuck River Basin. The estimated outflows from evapotranspiration, streamflow, and water withdrawals were 43.4, 56.1, and 0.5 percent, respectively, in the Woonasquatucket River Basin, and 49.8, 50, and 0.2 percent, respectively, in the Moshassuck River Basin.

Rhode Island

A numerical model investigation of the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on water level variability in Great South Bay, New York

Hurricane Sandy was a large and intense storm with high winds that caused total water levels from combined tides and storm surge to reach 4.0 m in the Atlantic Ocean and 2.5 m in Great South Bay (GSB), a back-barrier bay between Fire Island and Long Island, New York. In this study the impact of the hurricane winds and waves are examined in order to understand the flow of ocean water into the back-barrier bay and water level variations within the bay. To accomplish this goal, a high resolution hurricane wind field is used to drive the coupled Delft3D-SWAN hydrodynamic and wave models over a series of grids with the finest resolution in GSB. The processes that control water levels in the back-barrier bay are investigated by comparing the results of four cases that include: (i) tides only; (ii) tides, winds and waves with no overwash over Fire Island allowed; (iii) tides, winds, waves and limited overwash at the east end of the island; (iv) tides, winds, waves and extensive overwash along the island. The results indicate that strong local wind-driven storm surge along the bay axis had the largest influence on the total water level fluctuations during the hurricane. However, the simulations allowing for overwash have higher correlation with water level observations in GSB and suggest that island overwash provided a significant contribution of ocean water to eastern GSB during the storm. The computations indicate that overwash of 7500–10,000 m 3 s −1 was approximately the same as the inflow from the ocean through the major existing inlet. Overall, the model results indicate the complex variability in total water levels driven by tides, ocean storm surge, surge from local winds, and overwash that had a significant impact on the circulation in Great South Bay during Hurricane Sandy.

New York

Regional Aquifer-System Analysis— Appalachian Valley and Piedmont

The Regional Aquifer-System Analysis Program, RASA, represents a systematic effort to study a number of the Nation’s most important aquifer systems, which, in aggregate, underlie much of the country and which represent an important component of the Nation’s total water supply. In general, the boundaries of these studies are identified by the hydrologic extent of each system and, accordingly, transcend the political subdivisions to which investigations have often arbitrarily been limited in the past. The broad objective for each study is to assemble geologic, hydrologic, and geochemical information, to analyze and develop an understanding of the system, and to develop predictive capabilities that will contribute to the effective management of the system. The use of computer simulation is an important element of the RASA studies to develop an understanding of the natural, undisturbed hydrologic system and the changes brought about in it by human activities and to provide a means of predicting the regional effects of future pumping or other stresses. The final interpretive results of the RASA Program are presented in a series of U.S. Geological Survey Professional Papers that describe the geology, hydrology, and geochemistry of each regional aquifer system. Each study within the RASA Program is assigned a single Professional Paper number beginning with Professional Paper 1400. This paper, Professional Paper 1422, represents the Regional Aquifer-System Analysis— Appalachian Valley and Piedmont. It is published as several individual volumes over several years.

Professional Paper