Preliminary geologic studies of cold climate dunes, North Park, Jackson County, Colorado
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Hydrological regime and climate interactively shape riparian vegetation composition along the Colorado River, Grand Canyon
Question How closely do riparian plant communities track hydrological and climatic variation in space, and how do interactions among hydrological and climatic filters influence success of flow management strategies? Location Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA. Methods Multi‐year vegetation surveys were conducted across three hydrological zones – active channel, active floodplain and inactive floodplain – within each of 42 sandbars that vary geographically in temperature and precipitation along a 400‐km river segment. Ecological niche models were used to estimate locally optimal conditions of maximum inundation duration, elevation above daily peak flow, mean annual precipitation, and mean maximum and minimum temperature for 16 of the most abundant woody and 58 most abundant herbaceous plant species. These estimates were used to calculate community‐weighted mean (CWM) environmental preferences, which were used to determine how closely vegetation preferences tracked local variation in environmental factors, and to assess interactive responses of species and communities to variation in hydrology and climate. Results Communities closely tracked hydrological variation across zones, but less so within zones. Communities tracked variation in minimum temperature more closely than maximum temperature or precipitation. At the species level, woody plants that were more abundant in wetter hydrological conditions were also more abundant in wetter climatic conditions, and vice versa. This relationship was even stronger at the community level, where there were significant negative relationships between CWM preferences of inundation duration and temperature for both woody and herbaceous vegetation. Conclusions The climate‐hydrology linkages found in this system suggest that increasing temperatures and drought are likely to reduce the inundation tolerance of riparian vegetation within the Grand Canyon. Increasing the duration of high flow events would likely reduce the abundance of encroaching woody vegetation, but could also reduce the resilience of remaining vegetation to heat waves and drought. The reinforcing effects of climatic and hydrological filters are likely to generally result in greater sensitivity of species composition to environmental change than if those environmental filters acted independently. These results have implications for predicting resource responses to environmental change, as well as prescriptions for direct vegetation management to enhance resilience.
Colorado River, Grand Canyon↗
Climate change impacts on native cutthroat trout habitat in Colorado streams
Headwater streams support vital aquatic habitat yet are vulnerable to changing climate due to their high elevation and small size. Coldwater fish are especially sensitive to the altered streamflow and water temperature regimes during summer low flow periods. Though previous studies have provided insights on how changes in climate and alterations in stream discharge may affect habitat availability for various native cutthroat trout species, suitable physical habitats have not been evaluated under future climate projections for the threatened Greenback Cutthroat Trout (GBCT) native to headwater regions of Colorado, USA. Thus, this study used field data collected from selected headwater streams across the current distribution of GBCT to construct one-dimensional hydraulic models to evaluate streamflow and physical habitat under four future climate projections. Results illustrate reductions in both predicted streamflow and physical habitat for all future climate projections across study sites. The projected mean summer streamflow shows greater decline (−52% on average) compared to the projected decline in mean August flow (−21% on average). Moreover, sites located at a relative higher elevation with larger substrate and steeper slope were projected to experience more reductions in physical habitat due to streamflow reductions. Specifically, streams with step-pool morphologies may experience grater changes in available habitat compared to pool-riffle streams. Future climate change studies related to coldwater fish that examine spatial variation in flow alteration could provide novel data to complement the existing literature on the thermal characteristics. Tailoring reintroduction and management efforts for GBCT to the individual headwater stream with adequate on-site monitoring could provide a more holistic conservation approach.
Colorado↗
A climatic record from 14C-dated wood fragments from southwestern Colorado
Deuterium concentrations in trees are related to the climatic temperature at which the trees grew. Deuterium analyses were made on all available (39) 14C-dated (all 14C dates cited are uncorrected) wood fragments collected from Lake Emma sediments. The 14C dates range from 9600 to 5400 'B.P.'. Tree line was above Lake Emma at 9600 'B.P.', was at Lake Emma at about 5000 'B.P.', and is 80 m below Lake Emma at the present time. The isotopic records at the various intervals of time coincide very well with this history. The range of ??D values is maximum at 9600 'B.P.' and is minimum at about 5400 'B.P.'. These data allow us to estimate the temperature range for the area between tree line and Lake Emma between these times. These results confirm previously observed cooling trends from several sources in the Western Hemisphere.
Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗
Climatic influences on the growth of subalpine trees in the Colorado Front Range
We examined variations in tree growth responses to climatic variations among different tree species and habitat types in the subalpine zone of the Colorado Front Range. We constructed 25 tree ring site chronologies (11 of Picea engelmannii , 9 of Abies lasiocarpa , 4 of Pinus contorta var. latifolia , and 1 of Pinus flexilis ) from a series of subalpine habitats ranging from xeric to wet. To establish tree growth responses to climatic variation, we used correlation and response function analyses to compare variations in ring widths with monthly temperature and precipitation records. At the driest sites, growth of Picea and Abies tracked climatic variation similarly. At mesic and wet sites, however, these species differed in their responses to climatic variation. The responses of Pinus contorta , sampled over a narrower range of habitat types, differed from those of Picea and Abies but did not differ among sites. Steep environmental gradients in the subalpine zone of the Front Range accounted for most of the observed differences in growth responses to climatic variation. Even at adjacent sites that differ only slightly in topographic position, tree growth responses to climatic variation were distinct. Interspecific differences in response to climatic variations generally were less important than site differences. Intersite differences in tree growth responses to climatic variation can be used as indicators of environmental differences among subalpine habitats.
Ecology↗
High resolution SnowModel simulations reveal future elevation-dependent snow loss and earlier, flashier surface water input for the Upper Colorado River Basin
Continued climate warming is reducing seasonal snowpacks in the western United States, where >50% of historical water supplies were snowmelt-derived. In the Upper Colorado River Basin, declining snow water equivalent (SWE) and altered surface water input (SWI, rainfall and snowmelt available to enter the soil) timing and magnitude affect streamflow generation and water availability. To adapt effectively to future conditions, we need to understand current spatiotemporal distributions of SWE and SWI and how they may change in future decades. We developed 100-m SnowModel simulations for water years 2001–2013 and two scenarios: control (CTL) and pseudo-global-warming (PGW). The PGW fraction of precipitation falling as snow was lower relative to CTL, except for November–April at high elevations. PGW peak SWE was lower for low (−45%) and mid elevations (−14%), while the date of peak SWE was uniformly earlier in the year for all elevations (17–23 days). Currently unmonitored high elevation snow represented a greater fraction of total PGW SWE. PGW peak daily SWI was higher for all elevations (30%–42%), while the dates of SWI peaks and centroids were earlier in the year for all elevations under PGW. PGW displayed elevated winter SWI, lower summer SWI, and changes in spring SWI timing were elevation-dependent. Although PGW peak SWI was elevated and earlier compared to CTL, SWI was more evenly distributed throughout the year for PGW. These simulated shifts in the timing and magnitude of SWE and SWI have broad implications for water management in dry, snow-dominated regions.
Colorado↗
Documentation of input datasets for the soil-water balance groundwater recharge model of the Upper Colorado River Basin
The Colorado River and its tributaries supply water to more than 35 million people in the United States and 3 million people in Mexico, irrigating more than 4.5 million acres of farmland, and generating about 12 billion kilowatt hours of hydroelectric power annually. The Upper Colorado River Basin, encompassing more than 110,000 square miles (mi 2 ), contains the headwaters of the Colorado River (also known as the River) and is an important source of snowmelt runoff to the River. Groundwater discharge also is an important source of water in the River and its tributaries, with estimates ranging from 21 to 58 percent of streamflow in the upper basin. Planning for the sustainable management of the Colorado River in future climates requires an understanding of the Upper Colorado River Basin groundwater system. This report documents input datasets for a Soil-Water Balance groundwater recharge model that was developed for the Upper Colorado River Basin.
Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗
Synergistic soil, land use, and climate influences on wind erosion on the Colorado Plateau: Implications for management
Two decades of drought in the southwestern USA are spurring concerns about increases in wind erosion, dust emissions, and associated impacts on ecosystems, agriculture, human health, and water supply. Different avenues of investigation into primary drivers of wind erosion and dust have yielded mixed results depending on the spatial and temporal sensitivity of the evidence. We monitored passive aeolian sediment traps from 2017 to 2020 across eighty-one sites near Moab UT to understand patterns of sediment flux. At measurement sites we collated climate, soil, topography and vegetation spatial layers to better understand the context of wind erosion and then combine these data with field observations of land use in models to characterize the influence of cattle grazing, oil and gas well pads, and vehicle/heavy equipment disturbance that potentially drive both exposure of bare soil and increases in erodible sediment supply that increase vulnerability to erosion. Disturbed areas with low soil calcium carbonate content yielded high sediment transport in dry years, but notably areas with little disturbance and low bare soil exposure had much less activity. Cattle grazing had the largest land use association with erosional activity with analyses suggesting that both herbivory and trampling from cattle could be drivers. The amount and distribution of bare soil exposure from new sub-annual fractional cover remote sensing products proved very helpful in mapping erosion, and new predictive maps informed by field data are presented to help depict spatial patterns of wind erosion activity. Our results suggest that despite the magnitude of current droughts, minimizing surface disturbance in vulnerable soils can mitigate a large portion of dust emissions. Results can help managers identify eroding areas where disturbance reduction and soil surface protection measures can be prioritized.
Science of the Total Environment↗
Pedologic and climatic controls on Rn-222 concentrations in soil gas, Denver, Colorado
Soil-gas radon concentrations are controlled seasonally by factors of climate and pedology. In a swelling soil of the semiarid Western United States, soil-gas radon concentrations at 100 cm depth increase in winter and spring due to increased emanation with higher soil moisture and the capping effect of surface water or ice. Increased soil moisture results from a combination of higher winter and spring precipitation and decreased insolation in fall and winter, lowering soil temperatures so that water infiltrates deeper and evaporates more slowly. Radon concentrations in soil drop markedly through the summer and fall. The increased insolation of spring and summer warms and dries the soil, limiting the amount of water that reaches 100 cm. As the soil dries, radon emanation decreases, and deep soil cracks develop. These cracks aid convective transport of soil gas, increase radon's flux into the atmosphere, and lower its concentration in soil gas. Probable controls on the distribution of uranium within the soil column include its downward leaching, its precipitation or adsorption onto B-horizon clays, concretions, or cement, and the uranium content and mineralogy of the soil's granitic and gneissic precursors.
Geophysical Research Letters↗
Climate change and changes in sediment transport capacity in the Colorado Plateau, USA
Information is presented on changes in the sediment transport capacity of streams of the Colorado Plateau region of the United States. The changes in transport capacity may be due to changes in climate. Changes in the ability of three rivers in the Colorado Plateau to transport sediment were investigated (Paria River at Lees Ferry, Arizona; Sevier River at Hatch, Utah; and Little Colorado at Woodruff, Arizona) using an index to sediment transport potential (or capacity) of the rivers. The index is called a Sediment Transport Capacity Index (STCI). The parameters in the index are calibrated to measured sediment concentrations. Other investigators have postulated that there have been three climate regimes in the Colorado Plateau during the 20th century: 1905-1941, 1942-1977 and 1978-1998. Time series analyses of the STCI showed reasonably clearly that there was a change in the climate about 1941 and a high probability of a change about 1923-1929. The STCI time series for the Sevier River had the expected pattern because the STCI increased in the years following 1997 nearly to the pre-1942 values from lower 1942-1977 values. The Little Colorado River showed a similar pattern, but not nearly to the magnitude suggested by the change in precipitation. The STCI for the Paria River essentially did not change. Changes in sediment transport also are investigated in the lower San Juan River where alterations in the sediment balance of the river may be due to variations in the character of summer precipitation.
Conference Paper↗
Understanding uncertainties in future Colorado River streamflow
The Colorado River is the primary water source for more than 30 million people in the United States and Mexico. Recent studies that project streamf low changes in the Colorado River all project annual declines, but the magnitude of the projected decreases range from less than 10% to 45% by the mid-twenty-first century. To understand these differences, we address the questions the management community has raised: Why is there such a wide range of projections of impacts of future climate change on Colorado River streamflow, and how should this uncertainty be interpreted? We identify four major sources of disparities among studies that arise from both methodological and model differences. In order of importance, these are differences in 1) the global climate models (GCMs) and emission scenarios used; 2) the ability of land surface and atmospheric models to simulate properly the high-elevation runoff source areas; 3) the sensitivities of land surface hydrology models to precipitation and temperature changes; and 4) the methods used to statistically downscale GCM scenarios. In accounting for these differences, there is substantial evidence across studies that future Colorado River streamflow will be reduced under the current trajectories of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions because of a combination of strong temperature-induced runoff curtailment and reduced annual precipitation. Reconstructions of preinstrumental streamflows provide additional insights; the greatest risk to Colorado River streamf lows is a multidecadal drought, like that observed in paleoreconstructions, exacerbated by a steady reduction in flows due to climate change. This could result in decades of sustained streamflows much lower than have been observed in the ~100 years of instrumental record.
Colorado River↗
Isotopic evidence of Holocene climatic change in the San Juan Mountains, Colorado
The ??D of cellulose from 14C-dated wood, collected in the San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado, decreased by about 45??? from 9600 to 3100 yr B.P. and an additional 25??? to the present. The wood samples are from trees that grew above present-day tree line and reflect a time of warmer average summer temperatures. These changes in ??D are interpreted to indicate a major change during the Holocene in the sources of moisture, in the seasonality of precipitation, or in both. ?? 1988.
Quaternary Research↗
Hatching success in salamanders and chorus frogs at two sites in Colorado, USA: Effects of acidic deposition and climate
The snowpack in the vicinity of the Mount Zirkel Wilderness Area is among the most acidic in the western United States. We analyzed water chemistry and examined hatching success in tiger salamanders and chorus frogs at ponds there and at nearby Rabbit Ears Pass (Dumont) to determine whether acid deposition affects amphibians or their breeding habitats at these potentially sensitive locations. We found a wide range of acid neutralizing capacity among ponds within sites; the minimum pH recorded during the experiment was 5.4 at one of 12 ponds with all others at pH ??? 5.7. At Dumont, hatching success for chorus frogs was greater in ponds with low acid neutralizing capacity; however, lowest pHs were >5.8. At current levels of acid deposition, weather and pond characteristics are likely more important than acidity in influencing hatching success in amphibian larvae at these sites.
Colorado↗
Climatic fluctuations, drought, and flow of the Colorado River
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Fact Sheet↗
A high-elevation, multi-proxy biotic and environmental record of MIS 6-4 from the Ziegler Reservoir fossil site, Snowmass Village, Colorado, USA
In North America, terrestrial records of biodiversity and climate change that span Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 are rare. Where found, they provide insight into how the coupling of the ocean–atmosphere system is manifested in biotic and environmental records and how the biosphere responds to climate change. In 2010–2011, construction at Ziegler Reservoir near Snowmass Village, Colorado (USA) revealed a nearly continuous, lacustrine/wetland sedimentary sequence that preserved evidence of past plant communities between ~ 140 and 55 ka, including all of MIS 5. At an elevation of 2705 m, the Ziegler Reservoir fossil site also contained thousands of well-preserved bones of late Pleistocene megafauna, including mastodons, mammoths, ground sloths, horses, camels, deer, bison, black bear, coyotes, and bighorn sheep. In addition, the site contained more than 26,000 bones from at least 30 species of small animals including salamanders, otters, muskrats, minks, rabbits, beavers, frogs, lizards, snakes, fish, and birds. The combination of macro- and micro-vertebrates, invertebrates, terrestrial and aquatic plant macrofossils, a detailed pollen record, and a robust, directly dated stratigraphic framework shows that high-elevation ecosystems in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado are climatically sensitive and varied dramatically throughout MIS 5.
Colorado↗
Trends in lake chemistry in response to atmospheric deposition and climate in selected Class I wilderness areas in Colorado, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming, 1993-2009
In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Air Resource Management, began a study to evaluate long-term trends in lake-water chemistry for 64 high-elevation lakes in selected Class I wilderness areas in Colorado, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming during 1993 to 2009. The purpose of this report is to describe trends in the chemical composition of these high-elevation lakes. Trends in emissions, atmospheric deposition, and climate variables (air temperature and precipitation amount) are evaluated over a similar period of record to determine likely drivers of changing lake chemistry. Sulfate concentrations in precipitation decreased over the past two decades at high-elevation monitoring stations in the Rocky Mountain region. The trend in deposition chemistry is consistent with regional declines in sulfur dioxide emissions resulting from installation of emission controls at large stationary sources. Trends in nitrogen deposition were not as widespread as those for sulfate. About one-half of monitoring stations showed increases in ammonium concentrations, but few showed significant changes in nitrate concentrations. Trends in nitrogen deposition appear to be inconsistent with available emission inventories, which indicate modest declines in nitrogen emissions in the Rocky Mountain region since the mid-1990s. This discrepancy may reflect uncertainties in emission inventories or changes in atmospheric transformations of nitrogen species that may be affecting deposition processes. Analysis of long-term climate records indicates that average annual mean air temperature minimums have increased from 0.57 to 0.75 °C per decade in mountain areas of the region with warming trends being more pronounced in Colorado. Trends in annual precipitation were not evident over the period 1990 to 2006, although wetter than average years during 1995 to 1997 and drier years during 2001 to 2004 caused a notable decline in precipitation in the middle part of the record.
Colorado;Idaho;Utah;Wyoming↗
Modeled streamflow metrics on small, ungaged stream reaches in the Upper Colorado River Basin
Modeling streamflow is an important approach for understanding landscape-scale drivers of flow and estimating flows where there are no streamgage records. In this study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with Colorado State University, the objectives were to model streamflow metrics on small, ungaged streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin and identify streams that are potentially threatened with becoming intermittent under drier climate conditions. The Upper Colorado River Basin is a region that is critical for water resources and also projected to experience large future climate shifts toward a drying climate. A random forest modeling approach was used to model the relationship between streamflow metrics and environmental variables. Flow metrics were then projected to ungaged reaches in the Upper Colorado River Basin using environmental variables for each stream, represented as raster cells, in the basin. Last, the projected random forest models of minimum flow coefficient of variation and specific mean daily flow were used to highlight streams that had greater than 61.84 percent minimum flow coefficient of variation and less than 0.096 specific mean daily flow and suggested that these streams will be most threatened to shift to intermittent flow regimes under drier climate conditions. Map projection products can help scientists, land managers, and policymakers understand current hydrology in the Upper Colorado River Basin and make informed decisions regarding water resources. With knowledge of which streams are likely to undergo significant drying in the future, managers and scientists can plan for stream-dependent ecosystems and human water users.
Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗
A case study on evaluating impacts of potential climate change on groundwater resources: Groundwater recharge in the Upper Colorado River Basin
An investigation of the change in groundwater recharge in response to potential climate change was performed for the UCRB using the SWB groundwater recharge model and downscaled climate data from the CMIP5 multi-model dataset. Climate projections from 97 downscaled CMIP5 datasets were assumed to be equally likely and recharge simulation results were combined. Results for the UCRB suggest that projected increases in actual ET from higher temperatures may be offset by increases in precipitation, resulting in increased groundwater recharge for many areas in the basin in future time periods.
Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗