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USGS2023

Living on the edge: Predicting songbird response to management and environmental changes across an ecotone

Effective wildlife management requires robust information regarding population status, habitat requirements, and likely responses to changing resource conditions. Single-species management may inadequately conserve communities and result in undesired effects to non-target species. Thus, management can benefit from understanding habitat relationships for multiple species. Pinyon pine and juniper ( Pinus spp. and Juniperus spp.) are expanding into sagebrush-dominated ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems within North America and mechanical removal of these trees is frequently conducted to restore sagebrush ecosystems and recover Greater Sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ). However, pinyon-juniper removal effects on non-target species are poorly understood, and changing pinyon-juniper woodland dynamics, climate, and anthropogenic development may obscure conservation priorities. To better predict responses to changing resource conditions, evaluate non-target effects of pinyon-juniper removal, prioritize species for conservation, and inform species recovery within pinyon-juniper and sagebrush ecosystems, we modeled population trends and density-habitat relationships for four sagebrush-associated, four pinyon-juniper-associated, and three generalist songbird species with respect to these ecosystems. We fit hierarchical population models to point count data collected throughout the western United States from 2008 to 2020. We found regional population changes for 10 of 11 species investigated; 6 of which increased in the highest elevation region of our study. Our models indicate pinyon-juniper removal will benefit Brewer's Sparrow ( Spizella breweri ), Green-tailed Towhee ( Pipilo chlorurus ), and Sage Thrasher ( Oreoscoptes montanus ) densities. Conversely, we predict largest negative effects of pinyon-juniper removal for species occupying early successional pinyon-juniper woodlands: Bewick's Wren ( Thryomanes bewickii ), Black-throated Gray Warblers ( Setophaga nigrescens ), Gray Flycatcher ( Empidonax wrightii ), and Juniper Titmouse ( Baeolophus ridgwayi ). Our results highlight the importance of considering effects to non-target species before implementing large-scale habitat manipulations. Our modeling framework can help prioritize species and regions for conservation action, infer effects of management interventions and a changing environment on wildlife, and help land managers balance habitat requirements across ecosystems.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2016

Large along-strike variations in the onset of Subandean exhumation: Implications for Central Andean orogenic growth

Plate tectonics drives mountain building in general, but the space-time pattern and style of deformation is influenced by how climate, geodynamics, and basement structure modify the orogenic wedge. Growth of the Subandean thrust belt, which lies at the boundary between the arid, high-elevation Central Andean Plateau and its humid, low-elevation eastern foreland, figures prominently into debates of orogenic wedge evolution. We integrate new apatite and zircon (U-Th)/He thermochronometer data with previously published apatite fission-track data from samples collected along four Subandean structural cross-sections in Bolivia between 15° and 20°S. We interpret cooling ages vs. structural depth to indicate the onset of Subandean exhumation and signify the forward propagation of deformation. We find that Subandean growth is diachronous south (11 ± 3 Ma) vs. north (6 ± 2 Ma) of the Bolivian orocline and that Subandean exhumation magnitudes vary by more than a factor of two. Similar north-south contrasts are present in foreland deposition, hinterland erosion, and paleoclimate; these observations both corroborate diachronous orogenic growth and illuminate potential propagation mechanisms. Of particular interest is an abrupt shift to cooler, more arid conditions in the Altiplano hinterland that is diachronous in southern Bolivia (16-13 Ma) vs. northern Bolivia (10-7 Ma) and precedes the timing of Subandean propagation in each region. Others have interpreted the paleoclimate shift to reflect either rapid surface uplift due to lithosphere removal or an abrupt change in climate dynamics once orographic threshold elevations were exceeded. These mechanisms are not mutually exclusive and both would drive forward propagation of the orogenic wedge by augmenting the hinterland backstop, either through surface uplift or spatially variable erosion. In summary, we suggest that diachronous Subandean exhumation was driven by piecemeal hinterland uplift, orography, and the outward propagation of deformation.

Andes↗

USGS2008

Coherent changes in relative C4 plant productivity and climate during the late Quaternary in the North American Great Plains

Evolution of the mixed and shortgrass prairie of the North American Great Plains is poorly understood because of limited proxies available for environmental interpretations. Buried soils in the Great Plains provide a solution to the problem because they are widespread both spatially and temporally with their organic reservoirs serving as a link to the plants than once grew on them. Through stable carbon isotopic analysis of soil organic carbon (??13C), the percent carbon from C4 plants (%C4) can be ascertained. Because C4 plants are primarily warm season grasses responding positively to summer temperature, their representation has the added advantage of serving as a climate indicator. To better understand grassland and climate dynamics in the Great Plains during the last 12 ka (ka=1000 radiocarbon years) we developed an isotopic standardization technique by: determining the difference in buried soil ??13C and modern soil ??13C expected for that latitude (????13C), and transferring the ????13C to ??%C4 (% C4) using mass balance calculations. Our analysis reveals two isotopic stages in the mixed and shortgrass prairie of the Great Plains based on trends in ??%C4. In response to orbital forcing mechanisms, ??%C4 was persistently below modern in the Great Plains between 12 and 6.7 ka (isotopic stage II) evidently because of the cooling effect of the Laurentide ice sheet and proglacial lakes in northern latitudes, and glacial meltwater pulses cooling the Gulf of Mexico and North Atlantic Ocean. The ??%C4 after 6.7 ka (isotopic stage I) increased to modern levels as conditioned by the outflow of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and dry incursions from the west that produced periodic drought. At the millennial-scale, time series analysis demonstrates that ??%C4 oscillated with 0.6 and 1.8 ka periodicities, possibly governed by variations in solar irradiance. Our buried soil isotopic record correlates well with other environmental proxy from the Great Plains and surrounding regions. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2022

Seasonality of precipitation in the southwestern United States during the late Pleistocene inferred from stable isotopes in herbivore tooth enamel

The late Pleistocene was a climatically dynamic period, with abrupt shifts between cool-wet and warm-dry conditions. Increased effective precipitation supported large pluvial lakes and long-lived spring ecosystems in valleys and basins throughout the western and southwestern U.S., but the source and seasonality of the increased precipitation are debated. Increases in the proportions of C 4 /(C 4 + C 3 ) grasses in the diets of large grazers have been ascribed both to increases in summer precipitation and lower atmospheric CO 2 levels. Here we present stable carbon and oxygen isotope data from tooth enamel of late Pleistocene herbivores recovered from paleowetland deposits at Tule Spring Fossil Beds National Monument in the Las Vegas Valley of southern Nevada, as well as modern herbivores from the surrounding area. We use these data to investigate whether winter or summer precipitation was responsible for driving the relatively wet hydroclimate conditions that prevailed in the region during the late Pleistocene. We also evaluate whether late Pleistocene grass C 4 /(C 4 + C 3 ) was higher than today, and potential drivers of any changes. Tooth enamel δ 18 O values for Pleistocene Equus , Bison , and Mammuthus are generally low (average 22.0 ± 0.7‰, 2 s.e., VSMOW) compared to modern equids (27.8 ± 1.5‰), and imply lower water δ 18 O values (−16.1 ± 0.8‰) than modern precipitation (−10.5‰) or in waters present in active springs and wells in the Las Vegas Valley (−12.9‰), an area dominated by winter precipitation. In contrast, tooth enamel of Camelops (a browser) generally yielded higher δ 18 O values (23.9 ± 1.1‰), possibly suggesting drought tolerance. Mean δ 13 C values for the Pleistocene grazers (−6.6 ± 0.7‰, 2 s.e., VPDB) are considerably higher than for modern equids (−9.6 ± 0.4‰) and indicate more consumption of C 4 grass (17 ± 5%) than today (4 ± 4%). However, calculated C 4 grass consumption in the late Pleistocene is strikingly lower than the proportion of C 4 grass taxa currently present in the valley (55–60%). δ 13 C values in Camelops tooth enamel (−7.7 ± 1.0‰) are interpreted as reflecting moderate consumption (14 ± 8%) of Atriplex (saltbush), a C 4 shrub that flourishes in regions with hot, dry summers. Lower water δ 18 O values, lower abundance of C 4 grasses, and the inferred presence of Atriplex are all consistent with general circulation models for the late Pleistocene that show enhanced delivery of winter precipitation, sourced from the north Pacific, into the interior western U.S. but do not support alternative models that infer enhanced delivery of summer precipitation, sourced from the tropics. In addition, we hypothesize that dietary competition among the diverse and abundant Pleistocene fauna may have driven the grazers analyzed here to feed preferentially on C 4 grasses. Dietary partitioning, especially when combined with decreased p CO2 levels during the late Pleistocene, can explain the relatively high δ 13 C values observed in late Pleistocene grazers in the Las Vegas Valley and elsewhere in the southwestern U.S. without requiring additional summer precipitation. Pleistocene hydroclimate parameters derived from dietary and floral records may need to be reevaluated in the context of the potential effects of dietary preferences and lower p CO2 levels on the stability of C 3 vs. C 4 plants.

Nevada↗

USGS2021

Oil and gas reclamation on US public lands: How it works and improving the process with land potential concepts

• There are three general stages of a well's life on US public land: 1) the permitting process to drill, 2) active extraction of fossil fuel resource, and 3) plugging and abandonment of well. • There is no national standard for oil and gas reclamation in the United States similar to mining and therefore current reclamation practices and standards fail to achieve long-term effectiveness across the western United States. • A reclaimed well pad's land potential is determined by 3 properties: static (e.g., climate), dynamic (e.g., soil stability), and process (e.g., water retention). • Understanding a reclaimed well pad's land potential enables federal land agencies to outline surface reclamation goals and requirements consistently and clearly. • Monitoring for land potential increases the capacity of the private industry to practice adaptive management by enabling companies to respond to plant community changes while maintaining long-term progress toward recovery.

Rangelands↗

USGS2021

Holocene hydroclimatic reorganizations in northwest Canada inferred from lacustrine carbonate oxygen isotopes

Sub-centennial oxygen ( δ 18 O) isotopes of ostracod and authigenic calcite from Squanga Lake provides evidence of hydroclimatic extremes and a series of post-glacial climate system reorganizations for the interior region of northwest Canada. Authigenic calcite δ 18 O values range from −16‰ to −21‰ and are presently similar to modern lake water and annual precipitation values. Ostracod δ 18 O record near identical trends with calcite, offset by +1.7 ± 0.6‰. At 11 ka BP (kaBP = thousands of years before 1950), higher δ 18 O values reflect decreased precipitation−evaporation (P−E) balance from residual ice sheet influences on moisture availability. A trend to lower δ 18 O values until ∼8 ka BP reflects a shift to wetter conditions, and reorganization of atmospheric circulation. The last millennium and modern era are relatively dry, though not as dry as the early Holocene extreme. North Pacific climate dynamics remained an important driver of P−E balance in northwest Canada throughout the Holocene.

Yukon Territory↗

USGS2016

Deciduous trees are a large and overlooked sink for snowmelt water in the boreal forest

The terrestrial water cycle contains large uncertainties that impact our understanding of water budgets and climate dynamics. Water storage is a key uncertainty in the boreal water budget, with tree water storage often ignored. The goal of this study is to quantify tree water content during the snowmelt and growing season periods for Alaskan and western Canadian boreal forests. Deciduous trees reached saturation between snowmelt and leaf-out, taking up 21–25% of the available snowmelt water, while coniferous trees removed <1%. We found that deciduous trees removed 17.8–20.9 billion m 3 of snowmelt water, which is equivalent to 8.7–10.2% of the Yukon River’s annual discharge. Deciduous trees transpired 2–12% (0.4–2.2 billion m 3 ) of the absorbed snowmelt water immediately after leaf-out, increasing favorable conditions for atmospheric convection, and an additional 10–30% (2.0–5.2 billion m 3 ) between leaf-out and mid-summer. By 2100, boreal deciduous tree area is expected to increase by 1–15%, potentially resulting in an additional 0.3–3 billion m 3 of snowmelt water removed from the soil per year. This study is the first to show that deciduous tree water uptake of snowmelt water represents a large but overlooked aspect of the water balance in boreal watersheds.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2013

The PRISM (Pliocene Palaeoclimate) reconstruction: Time for a paradigm shift

Global palaeoclimate reconstructions have been invaluable to our understanding of the causes and effects of climate change, but single-temperature representations of the oceanic mixed layer for data–model comparisons are outdated, and the time for a paradigm shift in marine palaeoclimate reconstruction is overdue. The new paradigm in marine palaeoclimate reconstruction stems the loss of valuable climate information and instead presents a holistic and nuanced interpretation of multi-dimensional oceanographic processes and responses. A wealth of environmental information is hidden within the US Geological Survey's P liocene R esearch, I nterpretation and S ynoptic M apping (PRISM) marine palaeoclimate reconstruction, and we introduce here a plan to incorporate all valuable climate data into the next generation of PRISM products. Beyond the global approach and focus, we plan to incorporate regional climate dynamics with emphasis on processes, integrating multiple environmental proxies wherever available in order to better characterize the mixed layer, and developing a finer time slice within the Mid-Piacenzian Age of the Pliocene, complemented by underused proxies that offer snapshots into environmental conditions. The result will be a proxy-rich, temporally nested, process-oriented approach in a digital format - a relational database with geographic information system capabilities comprising a three-dimensional grid representing the surface layer, with a plethora of data in each cell.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:↗

USGS1999

Stable isotopes and mineral resource investigations in the United States

The elements oxygen, hydrogen, sulfur, and carbon are important constituents of hydrothermal ore-forming systems and the weathering processes of mineral deposits in the surficial environment. They also play key roles in volcanic activity, ecosystem dynamics, climate change, and hydrologic and atmospheric processes. Therefore, study of the stable isotopes of these elements can provide powerful insights into these processes. This is especially true for ongoing U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) projects in the Eastern United States that are concerned with the origins of base (copper, lead, and zinc) and precious (gold and silver) metal deposits in the Carolina slate belt and northern Maine and with the environmental effects of weathering of mineral deposits (fig. 1).

Information Handout↗

USGS2004

Climate data by elevation in the Great Smoky Mountains: a database and graphical displays for 1947 - 1950 with comparison to long-term data

A climate data set is presented for four sites spanning the elevation gradient in the Great Smoky Mountains from Gatlinburg to Clingmans Dome. Monthly mean values for cloud cover, temperature, humidity, precipitation, and soil moisture are included. Stephens (1969) is the source of all summarized mean monthly data. Values are the averages of four years (1947-1950) with moderate to high precipitation. Graphical displays show strong climatic patterns of variation among seasons and elevations. The upper stations had lower temperatures and higher precipitation totals; however, temperature lapse rates and variation in vapor pressure deficits decreased at upper elevations. To examine how well the four-year sample represents the long-term climate, temperature and precipitation for the Gatlinburg (1460 ft elevation at park headquarters) station were compared between the years in the sample and the years in the full record from 1928 to 2003. Trends related to season and elevation are consistent with earlier studies and provide a basis for interpretation of climate dynamics in the southern Appalachian Mountains.

Data Series↗

USGS2008

Climate simulation and flood risk analysis for 2008-40 for Devils Lake, North Dakota

Devils Lake and Stump Lake in northeastern North Dakota receive surface runoff from a 3,810-square-mile drainage basin, and evaporation provides the only major water loss unless the lakes are above their natural spill elevation to the Sheyenne River. In September 2007, flow from Devils Lake to Stump Lake had filled Stump Lake and the two lakes consisted of essentially one water body with an elevation of 1,447.1 feet, about 3 feet below the existing base flood elevation (1,450 feet) and about 12 feet below the natural outlet elevation to the Sheyenne River (1,459 feet). Devils Lake could continue to rise, causing extensive additional flood damages in the basin and, in the event of an uncontrolled natural spill, downstream in the Red River of the North Basin. This report describes the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, to evaluate future flood risk for Devils Lake and provide information for developing updated flood-insurance rate maps and planning flood-mitigation activities such as raising levees or roads. In about 1980, a large, abrupt, and highly significant increase in precipitation occurred in the Devils Lake Basin and elsewhere in the Northern Great Plains, and wetter-than-normal conditions have persisted through the present (2007). Although future precipitation is impossible to predict, paleoclimatic evidence and recent research on climate dynamics indicate the current wet conditions are not likely to end anytime soon. For example, there is about a 72-percent chance wet conditions will last at least 10 more years and about a 37-percent chance wet conditions will last at least 30 more years. A stochastic simulation model for Devils Lake and Stump Lake developed in a previous study was updated and used to generate 10,000 potential future realizations, or traces, of precipitation, evaporation, inflow, and lake levels given existing conditions on September 30, 2007, and randomly generated future duration of the current wet period. On the basis of the simulations, and assuming ice-free conditions and calm wind, the Devils Lake flood elevation for an annualized flood risk of 1 percent (analogous to a “100-year” riverine flood) was estimated to be 1,454.6 feet for a 10-year time horizon (2008–17). Therefore, without adjusting for wind or ice, a residence near Devils Lake at elevation 1,454.6 feet has the same chance of being flooded sometime during the next 10 years as a residence at the edge of the 100-year flood plain along a river. Adjusting for the effects of wind or ice, which will increase the flood elevations for many locations near the lakes, was not within the scope of this study.

North Dakota↗

USGS2015

Documentation of a restart option for the U.S. Geological Survey coupled Groundwater and Surface-Water Flow (GSFLOW) model

A new option to write and read antecedent conditions (also referred to as initial conditions) has been developed for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Groundwater and Surface-Water Flow (GSFLOW) numerical, hydrologic simulation code. GSFLOW is an integration of the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and USGS Modular Groundwater-Flow Model (MODFLOW), and provides three simulation modes: MODFLOW-only, PRMS-only, and GSFLOW (or coupled). The new capability, referred to as the restart option, can be used for all three simulation modes, such that the results from a pair (or set) of spin-up and restart simulations are nearly identical to results produced from a continuous simulation for the same time period. The restart option writes all results to files at the end of a spin-up simulation that are required to initialize a subsequent restart simulation. Previous versions of GSFLOW have had some capability to save model results for use as antecedent condiitions in subsequent simulations; however, the existing capabilities were not comprehensive or easy to use. The new restart option supersedes the previous methods. The restart option was developed in collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service as part of the Integrated Water Resources Science and Services Partnership. The primary focus for the development of the restart option was to support medium-range (7- to 14-day) forecasts of low streamflow conditions made by the National Weather Service for critical water-supply basins in which groundwater plays an important role. The spin-up simulation should be run for a sufficient length of time necessary to establish antecedent conditions throughout a model domain. Each GSFLOW application can require different lengths of time to account for the hydrologic stresses to propagate through a coupled groundwater and surface-water system. Typically, groundwater hydrologic processes require many years to come into equilibrium with dynamic climate and other forcing (or stress) data, such as precipitation and well pumping, whereas runoff-dominated surface-water processes respond relatively quickly. Use of a spin-up simulation can substantially reduce execution-time requirements for applications where the time period of interest is small compared to the time for hydrologic memory; thus, use of the restart option can be an efficient strategy for forecast and calibration simulations that require multiple simulations starting from the same day.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS2020

Post-fire vegetation response in a repeatedly burned low-elevation sagebrush steppe protected area provides insights about resilience and invasion resistance

Sagebrush steppe ecosystems are threatened by human land-use legacies, biological invasions, and altered fire and climate dynamics. Steppe protected areas are therefore of heightened conservation importance but are few and vulnerable to the same impacts broadly affecting sagebrush steppe. To address this problem, sagebrush steppe conservation science is increasingly emphasizing a focus on resilience to fire and resistance to non-native annual grass invasion as a decision framework. It is well-established that the positive feedback loop between fire and annual grass invasion is the driving process of most contemporary steppe degradation. We use a newly developed ordinal zero-augmented beta regression model fit to large-sample vegetation monitoring data from John Day Fossil Beds National Monument, USA, spanning 7 years to evaluate fire responses of two native perennial foundation bunchgrasses and two non-native invasive annual grasses in a repeatedly burned, historically grazed, and inherently low-resilient protected area. We structured our model hierarchically to support inferences about variation among ecological site types and over time after also accounting for growing-season water deficit, fine-scale topographic variation, and burn severity. We use a state-and-transition conceptual diagram and abundances of plants listed in ecological site reference conditions to formalize our hypothesis of fire-accelerated transition to ecologically novel annual grassland. Notably, big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) and other woody species were entirely removed by fire. The two perennial grasses, bluebunch wheatgrass ( Pseudoroegneria spicata ) and Thurber's needlegrass ( Achnatherum thurberianum ) exhibited fire resiliency, with no apparent trend after fire. The two annual grasses, cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ) and medusahead ( Taeniatherum caput-medusae ), increased in response to burn severity, most notably medusahead. Surprisingly, we found no variation in grass cover among ecological sites, suggesting fire-driven homogenization as shrubs were removed and annual grasses became dominant. We found contrasting responses among all four grass species along gradients of topography and water deficit, informative to protected-area conservation strategies. The fine-grained influence of topography was particularly important to variation in cover among species and provides a foothold for conservation in low-resilient, aridic steppe. Broadly, our study demonstrates how to operationalize resilience and resistance concepts for protected areas by integrating empirical data with conceptual and statistical models.

Oregon↗

USGS2015

Evapotranspiration trends over the eastern United States during the 20th century

Most models evaluated by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate change estimate projected increases in temperature and precipitation with rising atmospheric CO 2 levels. Researchers have suggested that increases in CO 2 and associated increases in temperature and precipitation may stimulate vegetation growth and increase evapotranspiration (ET), which acts as a cooling mechanism, and on a global scale, may slow the climate-warming trend. This hypothesis has been modeled under increased CO 2 conditions with models of different vegetation-climate dynamics. The significance of this vegetation negative feedback, however, has varied between models. Here we conduct a century-scale observational analysis of the Eastern US water balance to determine historical evapotranspiration trends and whether vegetation greening has affected these trends. We show that precipitation has increased significantly over the twentieth century while runoff has not. We also show that ET has increased and vegetation growth is partially responsible.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗

USGS2009

The role of climate in the dynamics of a hybrid zone in Appalachian salamanders

I examined the potential influence of climate change on the dynamics of a previously studied hybrid zone between a pair of terrestrial salamanders at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, U.S. Forest Service, in the Nantahala Mountains of North Carolina, USA. A 16-year study led by Nelson G. Hairston, Sr. revealed that Plethodon teyahalee and Plethodon shermani hybridized at intermediate elevations, forming a cline between 'pure' parental P. teyahalee at lower elevations and 'pure' parental P. shermani at higher elevations. From 1974 to 1990 the proportion of salamanders at the higher elevation scored as 'pure' P. shermani declined significantly, indicating that the hybrid zone was spreading upward. To date there have been no rigorous tests of hypotheses for the movement of this hybrid zone. Using temperature and precipitation data from Coweeta, I re-analyzed Hairston's data to examine whether the observed elevational shift was correlated with variation in either air temperature or precipitation from the same time period. For temperature, my analysis tracked the results of the original study: the proportion of 'pure' P. shermani at the higher elevation declined significantly with increasing mean annual temperature, whereas the proportion of 'pure' P. teyahalee at lower elevations did not. There was no discernable relationship between proportions of 'pure' individuals of either species with variation in precipitation. From 1974 to 1990, low-elevation air temperatures at the Coweeta Laboratory ranged from annual means of 11.8 to 14.2 °C, compared with a 55-year average (1936-1990) of 12.6 °C. My re-analyses indicate that the upward spread of the hybrid zone is correlated with increasing air temperatures, but not precipitation, and provide an empirical test of a hypothesis for one factor that may have influenced this movement. My results aid in understanding the potential impact that climate change may have on the ecology and evolution of terrestrial salamanders in montane regions.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2005

Assessment of a model of forest dynamics under contrasting climate and disturbance regimes in the Pacific Northwest [FORCLIM]

An individual-based model of forest dynamics (FORCLIM) was tested for its ability to simulate forest composition and structure in the Pacific Northwest region of North America. Simulation results across gradients of climate and disturbance were compared to forest survey data from several vegetation zones in western Oregon. Modelled patterns of tree species composition, total basal area and stand height across climate gradients matched those in the forest survey data. However, the density of small stems (<50 cm DBH) was underestimated by the model. Thus actual size-class structure and other density-based parameters of stand structure were not simulated with high accuracy. The addition of partial-stand disturbances at moderate frequencies (<0.01 yr-1) often improved agreement between simulated and actual results. Strengths and weaknesses of the FORCLIM model in simulating forest dynamics and structure in the Pacific Northwest are discussed.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2020

Simulation modeling of complex climate, wildfire, and vegetation dynamics to address wicked problems in land management

Complex, reciprocal interactions among climate, disturbance, and vegetation dramatically alter spatial landscape patterns and influence ecosystem dynamics. As climate and disturbance regimes shift, historical analogs and past empirical studies may not be entirely appropriate as templates for future management. The need for a better understanding of the potential impacts of climate changes on ecosystems is reaching a new level of urgency, especially in highly perturbed or vulnerable ecological systems. Simulation models are extremely useful tools for guiding management decisions in an era of rapid change, thus providing potential solutions for wicked problems in land management—those that are difficult to solve and inherently resistant to easily definable solutions. We identify three experimental approaches for landscape modeling that address management challenges in the context of uncertain climate futures and complex ecological interactions: (1) an historical comparative approach, (2) a future comparative approach, and (3) threshold detection. We provide examples of each approach from previously published studies of simulated climate, disturbance, and landscape dynamics in forested landscapes of the western United States, modeled with the FireBGCv2 ecosystem process model. Cumulatively, model outcomes indicate that typical land management strategies will likely not be sufficient to counteract the impacts of rapid climate change and altered disturbance regimes that threaten the stability of ecosystems. Without implementation of new, adaptive management strategies, future landscapes are very likely to be different than historical or contemporary ones, with significant and sometimes persistent changes triggered by interactions of climate and wildfire.

Montana, New Mexico, Wyoming↗

USGS2026

Integrating climate and anthropogenic dynamics can inform multifaceted management for declining mule deer populations

Wildlife and their habitats face profound challenges from climate and landscape-scale changes that extend beyond the influence and time horizon of most biologists and land managers. In this changing environment, long-term datasets can enhance assessments of how demographic trends respond to interactions among local (e.g., habitat restoration decisions) and broad extent drivers, including energy development, to shape wildlife populations. Although many studies evaluate habitat selection or demographics for a single population, our multipopulation, multiscale study quantifies the influence of local management actions given broader environmental forces using both immediate and lagged effects. This approach may be particularly important for species with high site fidelity that may have less adaptive capacity, including mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ), which are experiencing widespread population declines. We analyzed a 40-year (1980–2019) dataset for 37 mule deer populations across Wyoming, USA, to test hypotheses about and quantify the relative influence of conditions within winter use areas on annual rates of juvenile recruitment. Recruitment has been strongly affected by multiple factors largely beyond the control of managers. Land cover (agriculture and shrubland) had the largest positive effects on recruitment, with estimates more than twice the magnitude of other variables, but also had limited presence in some winter use areas. The next strongest effect sizes were shared by energy developments (including oil/gas and wind energy) and climatic conditions, which, except for wind turbines, had broad distributions across winter use areas. Recruitment increased with higher mean winter temperatures and summer precipitation, but declined with wind, oil and gas developments, cumulative drought, and wildfire. Expected increases in drought and decreases in summer precipitation may constrain options to sustain mule deer populations. Although mule deer recruitment may sometimes be enhanced through habitat restoration, effects varied with treatment type, habitat type, and time since treatment. Given large constraining effects of temperature and drought, supporting drought resiliency for important habitat may be useful. Our results can be used to weigh the relative strength of threats and the value of restoration actions, interpret historic demographic change, prioritize populations for conservation, and optimize options for wildlife habitat management.

Wyoming↗