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USGS2018

Quantifying climate sensitivity and climate-driven change in North American amphibian communities

Changing climate will impact species’ ranges only when environmental variability directly impacts the demography of local populations. However, measurement of demographic responses to climate change has largely been limited to single species and locations. Here we show that amphibian communities are responsive to climatic variability, using >500,000 time-series observations for 81 species across 86 North American study areas. The effect of climate on local colonization and persistence probabilities varies among eco-regions and depends on local climate, species life-histories, and taxonomic classification. We found that local species richness is most sensitive to changes in water availability during breeding and changes in winter conditions. Based on the relationships we measure, recent changes in climate cannot explain why local species richness of North American amphibians has rapidly declined. However, changing climate does explain why some populations are declining faster than others. Our results provide important insights into how amphibians respond to climate and a general framework for measuring climate impacts on species richness.

Nature Communications↗

USGS2020

Climate explorer: Improved access to local climate projections

The goal of the U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit’s (CRT) Climate Explorer (CE) is to provide information at appropriate spatial and temporal scales to help practitioners gain insights into the risks posed by climate change. Ultimately, these insights can lead to groups of local stakeholders taking action to build their resilience to a changing climate. Using CE, decision-makers can visualize decade-by-decade changes in climate conditions in their county and the magnitude of changes projected for the end of this century under two plausible emissions pathways. They can also check how projected changes relate to user-defined thresholds that represent points at which valued assets may become stressed, damaged, or destroyed. By providing easy access to authoritative information in an elegant interface, the Climate Explorer can help communities recognize—and prepare to avoid or respond to—emerging climate hazards. Another important step in the evolution of CE builds on the purposeful alignment of the CRT with the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s (USGCRP) National Climate Assessment (NCA). By closely linking these two authoritative resources, we envision that users can easily transition from static maps and graphs within NCA reports to dynamic, interactive versions of the same data within CE and other resources within the CRT, which they can explore at higher spatial scales or customize for their own purposes. The provision of consistent climate data and information—a result of collaboration among USGCRP’s federal agencies—will assist decision-making by other governmental entities, nongovernmental organizations, businesses, and individuals.

Article↗

USGS2019

Relative contribution of climate and non-climate drivers in determining dynamic rates ofboreal birds at the edge of their range

The Adirondack Park in New York State contains a unique and limited distribution of boreal ecosystem types, providing habitat for a number of birds at the southern edge of their range. Species are projected to shift poleward in a warming climate, and the limited boreal forest of the Adirondacks is expected to undergo significant change in response to rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. Here we expand upon a previous analysis to examine changes in occupancy patterns for eight species of boreal birds over a decade (2007–2016), and we assess the relative contribution of climate and non-climate drivers in determining colonization and extinction rates. Our analysis identifies patterns of declining occupancy for six of eight species, including some declines which appear to have become more pronounced since a prior analysis. Although non-climate drivers such as wetland area, connectivity, and human footprint continue to influence colonization and extinction rates, we find that for most species, occupancy patterns are best described by climate drivers. We modeled both average and annual temperature and precipitation characteristics and find stronger support for species’ responses to average climate conditions, rather than interannual climate variability. In general, boreal birds appear most likely to colonize sites that have lower levels of precipitation and a high degree of connectivity, and they tend to persist in sites that are warmer in the breeding season and have low and less variable precipitation in the winter. It is likely that these responses reflect interactions between broader habitat conditions and temperature and precipitation variables. Indirect climate influences as mediated through altered species interactions may also be important in this context. Given climate change predictions for both temperature and precipitation, it is likely that habitat structural changes over the long term may alter these relationships in the future.

New York↗

USGS1978

Climate variation and its effects on our land and water : Part A, Earth science in climate research

To better coordinate information being generated by the U.S. Geological Survey, a workshop was convened near Denver, Colo., on December 7-9, 1976, to exchange ideas about research that is oriented toward climate, climate variation, and the effects of climate on the Nation 's land and water resources. This is the first circular of a three-part report resulting from that workshop. Hydrologic records provide information to the earth scientist about the responses of ground water, surface water, and glaciers to climatic change; geologic sequences provide evidence of earth-surface water, and glaciers to climatic change; geologic sequences provide evidence of earth-surface responses to climatic change; biological records yield information about the effects of climatic change on the Earth 's biota; archeological records tell us where and how man was able to live under changing climatic conditions; and historical records allow the specific effects of short-term changes in climate to be accurately documented. The interrelation between present and past geologic environments, various methods of study , and the span of time over which the results can be applied are shown in a table. (Woodard-USGS)

Circular↗

USGS1978

Climate variation and its effects on our land and water : Part C, Geological Survey climate plan

Circular↗

USGS2026

Rethinking seed selection based on climate matching during restoration: Geography, soils and climate explain species-specific mortality

Implicit in the construction of seed transfer zones (STZs) are the assumptions that plant populations are adapted to their home climates and that transferring native seed across climate gradients risks maladaptation and poor performance. However, plants are adapted to multiple aspects of their environments that are often excluded from STZ development. Here, we used models integrating geographic distance, climate distance and soil metrics to predict plant mortality in an experimental garden for three restoration-relevant species in the southwestern United States: Bouteloua curtipendula , Heterotheca villosa and Sporobolus cryptandrus . Overall, climate distance explained mortality better than geographic distance, but increasing climate distance was not consistently associated with higher mortality. In contrast, mortality always increased with geographic distance. Species responded idiosyncratically to environmental gradients such as soil texture and pH, indicating that incorporating site-specific variables beyond climate can improve predictions of survival. Finally, seed sources of H. villosa from hotter, drier climates exhibited improved survival during abnormally hot, dry conditions at the experimental site, whereas no consistent pattern emerged for the two grass species. Collectively, our results suggest that seeding strategies extending beyond climate matching alone may better support restoration outcomes when species-specific guidance is unavailable.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗

USGS2020

FiCli, the Fish and Climate Change Database, informs climate adaptation and management for freshwater fishes

Inland fishes provide important ecosystem services to communities worldwide and are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Fish respond to climate change in diverse and nuanced ways, which creates challenges for practitioners of fish conservation, climate change adaptation, and management. Although climate change is known to affect fish globally, a comprehensive online, public database of how climate change has impacted inland fishes worldwide and adaptation or management practices that may address these impacts does not exist. We conducted an extensive, systematic primary literature review to identify peer-reviewed journal publications describing projected and documented examples of climate change impacts on inland fishes. From this standardized Fi sh and Cli mate Change database, FiCli (pronounced fick-lee), researchers and managers can query fish families, species, response types, or geographic locations to obtain summary information on inland fish responses to climate change and recommended management actions. The FiCli database is updatable and provides access to comprehensive published information to inform inland fish conservation and adaptation planning in a changing climate.

Scientific Data↗

USGS2021

Divergent climate change effects on widespread dryland plant communities driven by climatic and ecohydrological gradients

Plant community response to climate change will be influenced by individual plant responses that emerge from competition for limiting resources that fluctuate through time and vary across space. Projecting these responses requires an approach that integrates environmental conditions and species interactions that result from future climatic variability. Dryland plant communities are being substantially affected by climate change because their structure and function are closely tied to precipitation and temperature, yet impacts vary substantially due to environmental heterogeneity, especially in topographically complex regions. Here, we quantified the effects of climate change on big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) plant communities that span 76 million ha in the western United States. We used an individual-based plant simulation model that represents intra- and inter-specific competition for water availability, which is represented by a process-based soil water balance model. For dominant plant functional types, we quantified changes in biomass and characterized agreement among 52 future climate scenarios. We then used a multivariate matching algorithm to generate fine-scale interpolated surfaces of functional type biomass for our study area. Results suggest geographically divergent responses of big sagebrush to climate change (changes in biomass of −20% to +27%), declines in perennial C 3 grass and perennial forb biomass in most sites, and widespread, consistent, and sometimes large increases in perennial C 4 grasses. The largest declines in big sagebrush, perennial C 3 grass and perennial forb biomass were simulated in warm, dry sites. In contrast, we simulated no change or increases in functional type biomass in cold, moist sites. There was high agreement among climate scenarios on climate change impacts to functional type biomass, except for big sagebrush. Collectively, these results suggest divergent responses to warming in moisture-limited versus temperature-limited sites and potential shifts in the relative importance of some of the dominant functional types that result from competition for limiting resources.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2010

Climatic water deficit, tree species ranges, and climate change in Yosemite National Park

Aim (1) To calculate annual potential evapotranspiration (PET), actual evapotranspiration (AET) and climatic water deficit (Deficit) with high spatial resolution; (2) to describe distributions for 17 tree species over a 2300-m elevation gradient in a 3000-km 2 landscape relative to AET and Deficit; (3) to examine changes in AET and Deficit between past ( c. 1700), present (1971–2000) and future (2020–49) climatological means derived from proxies, observations and projections; and (4) to infer how the magnitude of changing Deficit may contribute to changes in forest structure and composition. Location Yosemite National Park, California, USA. Methods We calculated the water balance within Yosemite National Park using a modified Thornthwaite-type method and correlated AET and Deficit with tree species distribution. We used input data sets with different spatial resolutions parameterized for variation in latitude, precipitation, temperature, soil water-holding capacity, slope and aspect. We used climate proxies and climate projections to model AET and Deficit for past and future climate. We compared the modelled future water balance in Yosemite with current species water-balance ranges in North America. Results We calculated species climatic envelopes over broad ranges of environmental gradients – a range of 310 mm for soil water-holding capacity, 48.3°C for mean monthly temperature (January minima to July maxima), and 918 mm yr −1 for annual precipitation. Tree species means were differentiated by AET and Deficit, and at higher levels of Deficit, species means were increasingly differentiated. Modelled Deficit for all species increased by a mean of 5% between past ( c. 1700) and present (1971–2000). Projected increases in Deficit between present and future (2020–49) were 23% across all plots. Main conclusions Modelled changes in Deficit between past, present and future climate scenarios suggest that recent past changes in forest structure and composition may accelerate in the future, with species responding individualistically to further declines in water availability. Declining water availability may disproportionately affect Pinus monticola and Tsuga mertensiana . Fine-scale heterogeneity in soil water-holding capacity, aspect and slope implies that plant water balance may vary considerably within the grid cells of kilometre-scale climate models. Sub-grid-cell soil and topographical data can partially compensate for the lack of spatial heterogeneity in gridded climate data, potentially improving vegetation-change projections in mountainous landscapes with heterogeneous topography.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS2011

Understanding interaction effects of climate change and fire management on bird distributions through combined process and habitat models

Avian conservation efforts must account for changes in vegetation composition and structure associated with climate change. We modeled vegetation change and the probability of occurrence of birds to project changes in winter bird distributions associated with climate change and fire management in the northern Chihuahuan Desert (southwestern U.S.A.). We simulated vegetation change in a process-based model (Landscape and Fire Simulator) in which anticipated climate change was associated with doubling of current atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next 50 years. We estimated the relative probability of bird occurrence on the basis of statistical models derived from field observations of birds and data on vegetation type, topography, and roads. We selected 3 focal species, Scaled Quail ( Callipepla squamata ), Loggerhead Shrike ( Lanius ludovicianus ), and Rock Wren ( Salpinctes obsoletus ), that had a range of probabilities of occurrence for our study area. Our simulations projected increases in relative probability of bird occurrence in shrubland and decreases in grassland and Yucca spp. and ocotillo ( Fouquieria splendens ) vegetation. Generally, the relative probability of occurrence of all 3 species was highest in shrubland because leaf-area index values were lower in shrubland. This high probability of occurrence likely is related to the species' use of open vegetation for foraging. Fire suppression had little effect on projected vegetation composition because as climate changed there was less fuel and burned area. Our results show that if future water limits on plant type are considered, models that incorporate spatial data may suggest how and where different species of birds may respond to vegetation changes.

Chihuahuan Desert↗

USGS2015

Climate tolerances and habitat requirements jointly shape the elevational distribution of the American Pika (Ochotona princeps), with implications for climate change effects

Some of the most compelling examples of ecological responses to climate change are elevational range shifts of individual species, which have been observed throughout the world. A growing body of evidence, however, suggests substantial mediation of simple range shifts due to climate change by other limiting factors. Understanding limiting factors for a species within different contexts, therefore, is critical for predicting responses to climate change. The American pika ( Ochotona princeps ) is an ideal species for investigating distributions in relation to climate because of their unusual and well-understood natural history as well as observed shifts to higher elevation in parts of their range. We tested three hypotheses for the climatic or habitat characteristics that may limit pika presence and abundance: summer heat , winter snowpack , and forage availability . We performed these tests using an index of pika abundance gathered in a region where environmental influences on pika distribution have not been well-characterized. We estimated relative pika abundance via scat surveys and quantified climatic and habitat characteristics across two North-Central Rocky Mountain Ranges, the Wind River and Bighorn ranges in Wyoming, USA. Pika scat density was highest at mid-elevations and increased linearly with forage availability in both ranges. Scat density also increased with temperatures conducive to forage plant growth, and showed a unimodal relationship with the number of days below -5°C, which is modulated by insulating snowpack. Our results provide support for both the forage availability and winter snowpack hypotheses. Especially in montane systems, considering the context-dependent nature of climate effects across regions and elevations as well as interactions between climatic and other critical habitat characteristics, will be essential for predicting future species distributions.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2016

Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2013

The U.S. Geological Survey Climate Geo Data Portal: an integrated broker for climate and geospatial data

The increasing availability of downscaled climate projections and other data products that summarize or predict climate conditions, is making climate data use more common in research and management. Scientists and decisionmakers often need to construct ensembles and compare climate hindcasts and future projections for particular spatial areas. These tasks generally require an investigator to procure all datasets of interest en masse, integrate the various data formats and representations into commonly accessible and comparable formats, and then extract the subsets of the datasets that are actually of interest. This process can be challenging and time intensive due to data-transfer, -storage, and(or) -processing limits, or unfamiliarity with methods of accessing climate data. Data management for modeling and assessing the impacts of future climate conditions is also becoming increasingly expensive due to the size of the datasets. The Climate Geo Data Portal (http://cida.usgs.gov/climate/gdp/) addresses these limitations, making access to numerous climate datasets for particular areas of interest a simple and efficient task.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2012

Changing climate, changing forests: the impacts of climate change on forests of the northeastern United States and eastern Canada

Decades of study on climatic change and its direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems provide important insights for forest science, management, and policy. A synthesis of recent research from the northeastern United States and eastern Canada shows that the climate of the region has become warmer and wetter over the past 100 years and that there are more extreme precipitation events. Greater change is projected in the future. The amount of projected future change depends on the emissions scenarios used. Tree species composition of northeast forests has shifted slowly in response to climate for thousands of years. However, current human-accelerated climate change is much more rapid and it is unclear how forests will respond to large changes in suitable habitat. Projections indicate significant declines in suitable habitat for spruce-fir forests and expansion of suitable habitat for oak-dominated forests. Productivity gains that might result from extended growing seasons and carbon dioxide and nitrogen fertilization may be offset by productivity losses associated with the disruption of species assemblages and concurrent stresses associated with potential increases in atmospheric deposition of pollutants, forest fragmentation, and nuisance species. Investigations of links to water and nutrient cycling suggest that changes in evapotranspiration, soil respiration, and mineralization rates could result in significant alterations of key ecosystem processes. Climate change affects the distribution and abundance of many wildlife species in the region through changes in habitat, food availability, thermal tolerances, species interactions such as competition, and susceptibility to parasites and disease. Birds are the most studied northeastern taxa. Twenty-seven of the 38 bird species for which we have adequate long-term records have expanded their ranges predominantly in a northward direction. There is some evidence to suggest that novel species, including pests and pathogens, may be more adept at adjusting to changing climatic conditions, enhancing their competitive ability relative to native species. With the accumulating evidence of climate change and its potential effects, forest stewardship efforts would benefit from integrating climate mitigation and adaptation options in conservation and management plans.

Connecticut;Labrador;Maine;Massachusetts;New Bruns↗

USGS2008

Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources. A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research

Climate variables are key determinants of geographic distributions and biophysical characteristics of ecosystems, communities, and species. Climate change is therefore affecting many species attributes, ecological interactions, and ecosystem processes. Because changes in the climate system will continue into the future regardless of emissions mitigation, strategies for protecting climate-sensitive ecosystems through management will be increasingly important. While there will always be uncertainties associated with the future path of climate change, the response of ecosystems to climate impacts, and the effects of management, it is both possible and essential for adaptation to proceed using the best available science. This report provides a preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources in the United States. The term “adaptation” in this document refers to adjustments in human social systems (e.g., management) in response to climate stimuli and their effects. Since management always occurs in the context of desired ecosystem conditions or natural resource management goals, it is instructive to examine particular goals and processes used by different organizations to fulfill their objectives. Such an examination allows for discussion of specific adaptation options as well as potential barriers and opportunities for implementation. Using this approach, this report presents a series of chapters on the following selected management systems: National Forests, National Parks, National Wildlife Refuges, Wild and Scenic Rivers, National Estuaries, and Marine Protected Areas. For these chapters, the authors draw on the literature, their own expert opinion, and expert workshops composed of resource management scientists and representatives of managing agencies. The information drawn from across these chapters is then analyzed to develop the key synthetic messages presented below.

Synthesis and Assessment Product↗

USGS2024

Climate-smart agriculture for Ukraine: Winter wheat breeding for food security and climate adaptation

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, people have experienced food insecurity challenges because of increased prices of staple food commodities and loss of income or livelihood. Globally, countries with limited capacity to adapt have struggled to recover from pandemic-related disruptions and are further challenged to address adverse effects of climate change on agricultural production (United Nations [UN], 2022). Ukraine, a key agricultural exporter of staple food commodities, has a vital role in contributing to global food security, in particular through its wheat exports to countries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Europe (Martyshev and others, 2023). However, Ukraine’s role as a stable source of global wheat has been disrupted by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war—a conflict which began in February of 2022. Given the fragile state of global and local markets and food systems, and the increasing risk climate change poses to agricultural production globally, Ukraine has prioritized adopting efficient agricultural practices to contribute to stabilizing crop yields and to increase its capacity to export wheat and other staple crops. According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food (MINAGRO), along with addressing climate change, a contributing driver for this prioritization is the desire to join the European Union (EU) and the need to meet the requirements for the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) for acceptance as a union member state (Markiyan Dmytrasevych, a former deputy minister of MINAGRO, oral commun., 2023). As a result, MINAGRO is considering climate-smart agricultural practices to secure future crop yields and build resilience within its agricultural sector, especially as the war has impeded millions of tons of crops from reaching domestic and global markets. This report employs the climate-smart agriculture framework to provide Ukrainian agricultural policy- and decision makers and others in technical and development assistance roles with an overview of relevant climate, environmental, and agricultural policy and market factors, and projections on climate and environmental resources that could influence the implementation of climate-smart agricultural practices in Ukraine, and aid Ukraine in successfully joining the EU.

Report↗

USGS2011

Delivering climate science for the nation's fish, wildlife, and ecosystems: The U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center

Changes to the Earth's climate-temperature, precipitation, and other important aspects of climate-pose significant challenges to our Nation's natural resources now and will continue to do so. Managers of land, water, and living resources need to understand the impacts of climate change-which will exacerbate ongoing stresses such as habitat fragmentation and invasive species-so they can design effective response strategies. In 2008 Congress created the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); this center was formed to address challenges resulting from climate change and to empower natural resource managers with rigorous scientific information and effective tools for decision-making. Located at the USGS National Headquarters in Reston, Virginia, the NCCWSC has invested over $20M in cutting-edge climate change research and is now leading the effort to establish eight regional Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs).

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2014

Delivering climate science about the Nation's fish, wildlife, and ecosystems: the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center

Changes to the Earth’s climate—temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables—pose significant challenges to our Nation’s natural resources. Managers of land, water, and living resources require an understanding of the impacts of climate change—which exacerbate ongoing stresses such as habitat alteration and invasive species—in order to design effective response strategies. In 2008, Congress created the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The center was formed to address environmental challenges resulting from climate and land-use change and to provide natural resource managers with rigorous scientific information and effective tools for decision making. Located at the USGS National Headquarters in Reston, Virginia, the NCCWSC has established eight regional Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs) and has invested over $93 million (through fiscal year 2013) in cutting-edge climate change research.

Fact Sheet↗