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At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS1978

Climate variation and its effects on our land and water : Part C, Geological Survey climate plan

To better coordinate information being generated by the U.S. Geological Survey, a workshop was convened near Denver, Colo., on December 7-9, 1976, to exchange ideas about research that is oriented toward climate, climate variation, and the effects of climate on the Nation 's land and water resources. This is the first circular of a three-part report resulting from that workshop. Hydrologic records provide information to the earth scientist about the responses of ground water, surface water, and glaciers to climatic change; geologic sequences provide evidence of earth-surface water, and glaciers to climatic change; geologic sequences provide evidence of earth-surface responses to climatic change; biological records yield information about the effects of climatic change on the Earth 's biota; archeological records tell us where and how man was able to live under changing climatic conditions; and historical records allow the specific effects of short-term changes in climate to be accurately documented. The interrelation between present and past geologic environments, various methods of study , and the span of time over which the results can be applied are shown in a table. (Woodard-USGS)

Circular↗
USGS2026

Rethinking seed selection based on climate matching during restoration: Geography, soils and climate explain species-specific mortality

Implicit in the construction of seed transfer zones (STZs) are the assumptions that plant populations are adapted to their home climates and that transferring native seed across climate gradients risks maladaptation and poor performance. However, plants are adapted to multiple aspects of their environments that are often excluded from STZ development. Here, we used models integrating geographic distance, climate distance and soil metrics to predict plant mortality in an experimental garden for three restoration-relevant species in the southwestern United States: Bouteloua curtipendula , Heterotheca villosa and Sporobolus cryptandrus . Overall, climate distance explained mortality better than geographic distance, but increasing climate distance was not consistently associated with higher mortality. In contrast, mortality always increased with geographic distance. Species responded idiosyncratically to environmental gradients such as soil texture and pH, indicating that incorporating site-specific variables beyond climate can improve predictions of survival. Finally, seed sources of H. villosa from hotter, drier climates exhibited improved survival during abnormally hot, dry conditions at the experimental site, whereas no consistent pattern emerged for the two grass species. Collectively, our results suggest that seeding strategies extending beyond climate matching alone may better support restoration outcomes when species-specific guidance is unavailable.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗
USGS2020

FiCli, the Fish and Climate Change Database, informs climate adaptation and management for freshwater fishes

Inland fishes provide important ecosystem services to communities worldwide and are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Fish respond to climate change in diverse and nuanced ways, which creates challenges for practitioners of fish conservation, climate change adaptation, and management. Although climate change is known to affect fish globally, a comprehensive online, public database of how climate change has impacted inland fishes worldwide and adaptation or management practices that may address these impacts does not exist. We conducted an extensive, systematic primary literature review to identify peer-reviewed journal publications describing projected and documented examples of climate change impacts on inland fishes. From this standardized Fi sh and Cli mate Change database, FiCli (pronounced fick-lee), researchers and managers can query fish families, species, response types, or geographic locations to obtain summary information on inland fish responses to climate change and recommended management actions. The FiCli database is updatable and provides access to comprehensive published information to inform inland fish conservation and adaptation planning in a changing climate.

Scientific Data↗
USGS2021

Divergent climate change effects on widespread dryland plant communities driven by climatic and ecohydrological gradients

Plant community response to climate change will be influenced by individual plant responses that emerge from competition for limiting resources that fluctuate through time and vary across space. Projecting these responses requires an approach that integrates environmental conditions and species interactions that result from future climatic variability. Dryland plant communities are being substantially affected by climate change because their structure and function are closely tied to precipitation and temperature, yet impacts vary substantially due to environmental heterogeneity, especially in topographically complex regions. Here, we quantified the effects of climate change on big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) plant communities that span 76 million ha in the western United States. We used an individual-based plant simulation model that represents intra- and inter-specific competition for water availability, which is represented by a process-based soil water balance model. For dominant plant functional types, we quantified changes in biomass and characterized agreement among 52 future climate scenarios. We then used a multivariate matching algorithm to generate fine-scale interpolated surfaces of functional type biomass for our study area. Results suggest geographically divergent responses of big sagebrush to climate change (changes in biomass of −20% to +27%), declines in perennial C 3 grass and perennial forb biomass in most sites, and widespread, consistent, and sometimes large increases in perennial C 4 grasses. The largest declines in big sagebrush, perennial C 3 grass and perennial forb biomass were simulated in warm, dry sites. In contrast, we simulated no change or increases in functional type biomass in cold, moist sites. There was high agreement among climate scenarios on climate change impacts to functional type biomass, except for big sagebrush. Collectively, these results suggest divergent responses to warming in moisture-limited versus temperature-limited sites and potential shifts in the relative importance of some of the dominant functional types that result from competition for limiting resources.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2011

Understanding interaction effects of climate change and fire management on bird distributions through combined process and habitat models

Avian conservation efforts must account for changes in vegetation composition and structure associated with climate change. We modeled vegetation change and the probability of occurrence of birds to project changes in winter bird distributions associated with climate change and fire management in the northern Chihuahuan Desert (southwestern U.S.A.). We simulated vegetation change in a process-based model (Landscape and Fire Simulator) in which anticipated climate change was associated with doubling of current atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next 50 years. We estimated the relative probability of bird occurrence on the basis of statistical models derived from field observations of birds and data on vegetation type, topography, and roads. We selected 3 focal species, Scaled Quail ( Callipepla squamata ), Loggerhead Shrike ( Lanius ludovicianus ), and Rock Wren ( Salpinctes obsoletus ), that had a range of probabilities of occurrence for our study area. Our simulations projected increases in relative probability of bird occurrence in shrubland and decreases in grassland and Yucca spp. and ocotillo ( Fouquieria splendens ) vegetation. Generally, the relative probability of occurrence of all 3 species was highest in shrubland because leaf-area index values were lower in shrubland. This high probability of occurrence likely is related to the species' use of open vegetation for foraging. Fire suppression had little effect on projected vegetation composition because as climate changed there was less fuel and burned area. Our results show that if future water limits on plant type are considered, models that incorporate spatial data may suggest how and where different species of birds may respond to vegetation changes.

Chihuahuan Desert↗
USGS2015

Climate tolerances and habitat requirements jointly shape the elevational distribution of the American Pika (Ochotona princeps), with implications for climate change effects

Some of the most compelling examples of ecological responses to climate change are elevational range shifts of individual species, which have been observed throughout the world. A growing body of evidence, however, suggests substantial mediation of simple range shifts due to climate change by other limiting factors. Understanding limiting factors for a species within different contexts, therefore, is critical for predicting responses to climate change. The American pika ( Ochotona princeps ) is an ideal species for investigating distributions in relation to climate because of their unusual and well-understood natural history as well as observed shifts to higher elevation in parts of their range. We tested three hypotheses for the climatic or habitat characteristics that may limit pika presence and abundance: summer heat , winter snowpack , and forage availability . We performed these tests using an index of pika abundance gathered in a region where environmental influences on pika distribution have not been well-characterized. We estimated relative pika abundance via scat surveys and quantified climatic and habitat characteristics across two North-Central Rocky Mountain Ranges, the Wind River and Bighorn ranges in Wyoming, USA. Pika scat density was highest at mid-elevations and increased linearly with forage availability in both ranges. Scat density also increased with temperatures conducive to forage plant growth, and showed a unimodal relationship with the number of days below -5°C, which is modulated by insulating snowpack. Our results provide support for both the forage availability and winter snowpack hypotheses. Especially in montane systems, considering the context-dependent nature of climate effects across regions and elevations as well as interactions between climatic and other critical habitat characteristics, will be essential for predicting future species distributions.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2016

Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2013

The U.S. Geological Survey Climate Geo Data Portal: an integrated broker for climate and geospatial data

The increasing availability of downscaled climate projections and other data products that summarize or predict climate conditions, is making climate data use more common in research and management. Scientists and decisionmakers often need to construct ensembles and compare climate hindcasts and future projections for particular spatial areas. These tasks generally require an investigator to procure all datasets of interest en masse, integrate the various data formats and representations into commonly accessible and comparable formats, and then extract the subsets of the datasets that are actually of interest. This process can be challenging and time intensive due to data-transfer, -storage, and(or) -processing limits, or unfamiliarity with methods of accessing climate data. Data management for modeling and assessing the impacts of future climate conditions is also becoming increasingly expensive due to the size of the datasets. The Climate Geo Data Portal (http://cida.usgs.gov/climate/gdp/) addresses these limitations, making access to numerous climate datasets for particular areas of interest a simple and efficient task.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2012

Changing climate, changing forests: the impacts of climate change on forests of the northeastern United States and eastern Canada

Decades of study on climatic change and its direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems provide important insights for forest science, management, and policy. A synthesis of recent research from the northeastern United States and eastern Canada shows that the climate of the region has become warmer and wetter over the past 100 years and that there are more extreme precipitation events. Greater change is projected in the future. The amount of projected future change depends on the emissions scenarios used. Tree species composition of northeast forests has shifted slowly in response to climate for thousands of years. However, current human-accelerated climate change is much more rapid and it is unclear how forests will respond to large changes in suitable habitat. Projections indicate significant declines in suitable habitat for spruce-fir forests and expansion of suitable habitat for oak-dominated forests. Productivity gains that might result from extended growing seasons and carbon dioxide and nitrogen fertilization may be offset by productivity losses associated with the disruption of species assemblages and concurrent stresses associated with potential increases in atmospheric deposition of pollutants, forest fragmentation, and nuisance species. Investigations of links to water and nutrient cycling suggest that changes in evapotranspiration, soil respiration, and mineralization rates could result in significant alterations of key ecosystem processes. Climate change affects the distribution and abundance of many wildlife species in the region through changes in habitat, food availability, thermal tolerances, species interactions such as competition, and susceptibility to parasites and disease. Birds are the most studied northeastern taxa. Twenty-seven of the 38 bird species for which we have adequate long-term records have expanded their ranges predominantly in a northward direction. There is some evidence to suggest that novel species, including pests and pathogens, may be more adept at adjusting to changing climatic conditions, enhancing their competitive ability relative to native species. With the accumulating evidence of climate change and its potential effects, forest stewardship efforts would benefit from integrating climate mitigation and adaptation options in conservation and management plans.

Connecticut;Labrador;Maine;Massachusetts;New Bruns↗
USGS2024

Climate-smart agriculture for Ukraine: Winter wheat breeding for food security and climate adaptation

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, people have experienced food insecurity challenges because of increased prices of staple food commodities and loss of income or livelihood. Globally, countries with limited capacity to adapt have struggled to recover from pandemic-related disruptions and are further challenged to address adverse effects of climate change on agricultural production (United Nations [UN], 2022). Ukraine, a key agricultural exporter of staple food commodities, has a vital role in contributing to global food security, in particular through its wheat exports to countries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Europe (Martyshev and others, 2023). However, Ukraine’s role as a stable source of global wheat has been disrupted by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war—a conflict which began in February of 2022. Given the fragile state of global and local markets and food systems, and the increasing risk climate change poses to agricultural production globally, Ukraine has prioritized adopting efficient agricultural practices to contribute to stabilizing crop yields and to increase its capacity to export wheat and other staple crops. According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food (MINAGRO), along with addressing climate change, a contributing driver for this prioritization is the desire to join the European Union (EU) and the need to meet the requirements for the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) for acceptance as a union member state (Markiyan Dmytrasevych, a former deputy minister of MINAGRO, oral commun., 2023). As a result, MINAGRO is considering climate-smart agricultural practices to secure future crop yields and build resilience within its agricultural sector, especially as the war has impeded millions of tons of crops from reaching domestic and global markets. This report employs the climate-smart agriculture framework to provide Ukrainian agricultural policy- and decision makers and others in technical and development assistance roles with an overview of relevant climate, environmental, and agricultural policy and market factors, and projections on climate and environmental resources that could influence the implementation of climate-smart agricultural practices in Ukraine, and aid Ukraine in successfully joining the EU.

Report↗
USGS2011

Delivering climate science for the nation's fish, wildlife, and ecosystems: The U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center

Changes to the Earth's climate-temperature, precipitation, and other important aspects of climate-pose significant challenges to our Nation's natural resources now and will continue to do so. Managers of land, water, and living resources need to understand the impacts of climate change-which will exacerbate ongoing stresses such as habitat fragmentation and invasive species-so they can design effective response strategies. In 2008 Congress created the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); this center was formed to address challenges resulting from climate change and to empower natural resource managers with rigorous scientific information and effective tools for decision-making. Located at the USGS National Headquarters in Reston, Virginia, the NCCWSC has invested over $20M in cutting-edge climate change research and is now leading the effort to establish eight regional Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs).

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2014

Delivering climate science about the Nation's fish, wildlife, and ecosystems: the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center

Changes to the Earth’s climate—temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables—pose significant challenges to our Nation’s natural resources. Managers of land, water, and living resources require an understanding of the impacts of climate change—which exacerbate ongoing stresses such as habitat alteration and invasive species—in order to design effective response strategies. In 2008, Congress created the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The center was formed to address environmental challenges resulting from climate and land-use change and to provide natural resource managers with rigorous scientific information and effective tools for decision making. Located at the USGS National Headquarters in Reston, Virginia, the NCCWSC has established eight regional Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs) and has invested over $93 million (through fiscal year 2013) in cutting-edge climate change research.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2012

National climate assessment technical report on the impacts of climate and land use and land cover change

This technical report responds to the recognition by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the National Climate Assessment (NCA) of the importance of understanding how land use and land cover (LULC) affects weather and climate variability and change and how that variability and change affects LULC. Current published, peer-reviewed, scientific literature and supporting data from both existing and original sources forms the basis for this report's assessment of the current state of knowledge regarding land change and climate interactions. The synthesis presented herein documents how current and future land change may alter environment processes and in turn, how those conditions may affect both land cover and land use by specifically investigating, * The primary contemporary trends in land use and land cover, * The land-use and land-cover sectors and regions which are most affected by weather and climate variability,* How land-use practices are adapting to climate change, * How land-use and land-cover patterns and conditions are affecting weather and climate, and * The key elements of an ongoing Land Resources assessment. These findings present information that can be used to better assess land change and climate interactions in order to better assess land management and adaptation strategies for future environmental change and to assist in the development of a framework for an ongoing national assessment.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2022

When do climate services achieve societal impact? Evaluations of actionable climate adaptation science

To cope with complex environmental impacts in a changing climate, researchers are increasingly being asked to produce science that can directly support policy and decision making. To achieve such societal impact, scientists are using climate services to engage directly with stakeholders to better understand their needs and inform knowledge production. However, the wide variety of climate-services outcomes—ranging from establishing collegial relationships with stakeholders to obtaining specific information for inclusion into a pre-existing decision process—do not directly connect to traditional methods of measuring scientific impact (e.g., publication citations, journal impact factor). In this paper, we describe how concepts from the discipline of evaluation can be used to examine the societal impacts of climate services. We also present a case study from climate impacts and adaptation research to test a scalable evaluation approach. Those who conduct research for the purposes of climate services and those who fund applied climate research would benefit from evaluation from the beginning of project development. Doing so will help ensure that the approach, data collection, and data analysis are appropriately conceived and executed.

Sustainability↗
USGS2021

Assessing the impact of an online climate science community: The Early Career Climate Forum

Online science communities can serve as powerful platforms for advancing scientific knowledge, capacity, and outreach by increasing collaboration and information sharing among geographically distant peers, practitioners, and the public. Here, we examine the value and role of the Early Career Climate Forum (ECCF), a climate-focused online science community that is based in the United States and is dedicated to training and providing support to the next generation of climate scientists. In a survey of community users and contributors, we find that the ECCF played a unique role in providing users access to career resources as well as climate-related research and insights. Respondents also indicated that the ECCF provides them with a strong sense of community and a sense of hope for the future of climate science research. These findings highlight the importance of online science communities in shaping and supporting the next generation of scientists and practitioners working at the science–management interface on climate change issues.

Weather, Climate and Society↗
USGS2021

Identifying climate-resistant vernal pools: Hydrologic refugia for amphibian reproduction under droughts and climate change

Vernal pools of the northeastern United States provide important breeding habitat for amphibians but may be sensitive to droughts and climate change. These seasonal wetlands typically fill by early spring and dry by mid-to-late summer. Because climate change may produce earlier and stronger growing-season evapotranspiration combined with increasing droughts and shifts in precipitation timing, management concerns include the possibility that some pools will increasingly become dry earlier in the year, potentially interfering with amphibian life-cycle completion. In this context, a subset of pools that continue to provide wetland habitat later into the year under relatively dry conditions might function as ecohydrologic refugia, potentially supporting species persistence even as summer conditions become warmer and droughts more frequent. We used approximately 3,000 field observations of inundation from 449 pools to train machine-learning models that predict the likelihood of pool inundation based on pool size, day of the year, climate conditions, short-term weather patterns, and soil, geologic, and landcover attributes. Models were then used to generate predictions of pool wetness across five seasonal time points, three short-term weather scenarios, and four sets of downscaled climate projections. Model outputs are available through a website allowing users to choose the inundation thresholds, time points, weather scenarios, and future climate projections most relevant to their management needs. Together with long-term monitoring of individual pools at the site scale, this regional-scale study can support amphibian conservation by helping to identify which pools may be most likely to function as ecohydrologic refugia from droughts and climate change.

Ecohydrology↗
USGS2024

Adapting standardized trout monitoring to a changing climate for the upper Yellowstone River, Montana, USA

Objective Long‐term standardized monitoring programs are fundamental to assessing how fish populations respond to anthropogenic stressors. Standardized monitoring programs may need to adopt new methods to adapt to rapid environmental changes that are associated with a changing climate. In the upper Yellowstone River, Montana, biologists have used a standardized, mark–recapture monitoring protocol to annually estimate the abundance of trout since 1978 to assess population status and trends. However, within the past two decades, climate change has caused changes in discharge timing that have prevented standardized monitoring from occurring annually. Methods We investigated the feasibility of using two analytical methods, N‐mixture models and mean capture probability, for estimating the abundance of three trout species in the upper Yellowstone River using the historical long‐term data set; these methods allow abundance to be estimated when a mark–recapture estimate cannot be obtained due to hydrologic conditions. Result When compared with abundance estimates from mark–recapture methods, N‐mixture models most often resulted in negatively biased abundance estimates, whereas mean capture probability analyses resulted in positively biased abundance estimates. Additionally, N‐mixture models produced negatively biased estimates when tested against true abundance values from simulated data sets. The bias in the N‐mixture model estimates was caused by poor model fit and variation in capture probability. The bias in the mean capture probability estimates was caused by heterogeneity in capture probability, likely caused by variable environmental conditions, which were not accounted for in the models. Conclusion N‐mixture models and mean capture probability are not viable alternatives for estimating abundance in the upper Yellowstone River. Thus, exploring additional adaptations to sampling methodologies and analytical approaches, including models that require individually marked fish, will be valuable for this system. Climate change will undoubtedly necessitate changes to standardized sampling methods throughout the world; thus, developing alternative sampling and analytical methods will be important for maintaining the utility of long‐term data sets.

Montana↗
USGS2016

Interactions of landscape disturbances and climate change dictate ecological pattern and process: spatial modeling of wildfire, insect, and disease dynamics under future climates

Context Interactions among disturbances, climate, and vegetation influence landscape patterns and ecosystem processes. Climate changes, exotic invasions, beetle outbreaks, altered fire regimes, and human activities may interact to produce landscapes that appear and function beyond historical analogs. Objectives We used the mechanistic ecosystem-fire process model FireBGCv2 to model interactions of wildland fire, mountain pine beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae ), and white pine blister rust ( Cronartium ribicola ) under current and future climates, across three diverse study areas. Methods We assessed changes in tree basal area as a measure of landscape response over a 300-year simulation period for the Crown of the Continent in north-central Montana, East Fork of the Bitterroot River in western Montana, and Yellowstone Central Plateau in western Wyoming, USA. Results Interacting disturbances reduced overall basal area via increased tree mortality of host species. Wildfire decreased basal area more than beetles or rust, and disturbance interactions modeled under future climate significantly altered landscape basal area as compared with no-disturbance and current climate scenarios. Responses varied among landscapes depending on species composition, sensitivity to fire, and pathogen and beetle suitability and susceptibility. Conclusions Understanding disturbance interactions is critical for managing landscapes because forest responses to wildfires, pathogens, and beetle attacks may offset or exacerbate climate influences, with consequences for wildlife, carbon, and biodiversity.

Landscape Ecology↗