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Bathymetric survey and storage capacity of Upper Lake Mary near Flagstaff, Arizona in 2024

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the city of Flagstaff, collected bathymetric, light detection and ranging (lidar), and land-survey data of Upper Lake Mary in Arizona during the months of April and October 2024. The city of Flagstaff uses a combination of groundwater from well fields throughout the Flagstaff area and surface water, mainly from Upper Lake Mary, for its potable water supply. The purpose of the survey is to update previous surveys using new technology and compare the results to previous surveys to determine if there was a decrease in storage capacity that could affect the city’s water supply. The lakebed was mapped in April 2024 using a vessel equipped with a multibeam echosounder (MBES) and mobile lidar scanner with positioning captured using a real-time kinematic global navigation satellite system (RTK GNSS) base and receivers. In October 2024, areas of the reservoir that were too shallow for the boat and shoreline that were not captured by the vessel-based lidar were surveyed on foot using hand-held RTK GNSS receivers. At full pool (spillway elevation of 6,831.82 feet above NAVD 88 [2,082.34 meters (m)], Upper Lake Mary has a storage capacity of 16,449.80 acre-feet (20,290,611.73 cubic meters) and a surface area of 953.57 acres (3,860,926.075 square meters). The reservoir is 5.7 miles (9.7 kilometers) long and varies in width from 326 feet (99.36 m) near the central, narrow portion of the reservoir to 2,613 feet (796.44 m) in the upper portion. Comparisons between this survey and the previous two surveys from the 1950s and 2006 indicate no apparent decrease in reservoir area or storage capacity. Results of the 2024 survey indicate that Upper Lake Mary’s storage capacity increased by 0.9 percent from the 2006 survey and a 1.6 percent increase in surface area from the 2006 survey.

Arizona

Rapid earthquake magnitude classification via P-wave strains from borehole strainmeters and Distributed Acoustic Sensing

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) offers a promising approach for earthquake early warning (EEW) in settings where seismic networks are costly to maintain. By repurposing fiber-optic cables as dense strainmeter arrays, DAS enables real-time earthquake detection wherever those fibers are accessible. However, poor azimuthal coverage and challenges in estimating magnitude from strain measurements remain key hurdles in applying for earthquake monitoring. Here, we develop a machine learning method to distinguish large (M≥5.4) earthquakes from smaller ones within the first 4 seconds of a strain waveform after a P-wave arrival without determining location. Using ensemble decision tree models trained on borehole strainmeter data (3.5≤M≤7.1) and tested on onshore DAS waveforms (including the 2024 M7 Offshore Cape Mendocino earthquake), we find that low-frequency (0.2–0.5 Hz) continuous wavelet transform coefficients are the strongest predictors of magnitude, in addition to strain amplitude. Both DAS and borehole strainmeters effectively capture long-period strain signals, making these findings valuable for EEW systems. Our method shows high precision compared to the real-time EEW system, ShakeAlert®, supporting the position that DAS is a viable technology for earthquake monitoring and magnitude classification.

California

‘The fish that stop’: Drivers of historical decline for Pacific cod and implications for modern management in an era of rapidly changing climate

n the Gulf of Alaska, a series of marine heat waves depleted Pacific cod ( Gadus macrocephalus ) biomass to the lowest abundance ever recorded and led to the fishery’s closure in 2020. Although the fishery has been productive for decades, this collapse may have historical precedents. Traditional knowledge holders refer to cod as ‘the fish that stop’, and there is a suggested period of decline in the 1930s. Here we conduct a catch reconstruction of the early commercial fishery (1864–1950), confirming a rapid catch decline in the 1920s and 1930s. Next, we evaluate evidence for possible drivers. We document changes to demand and technology that contributed to declining catch. However, we also find both qualitative and quantitative evidence of depletion, suggesting catch declines were not driven entirely by social factors. Overfishing may have contributed to localized catch declines as evidenced by declining catch rates in heavily fished localities. We also find evidence for climate as a driver of regional decline, with the period of catch decline characterized by up to 2°C higher temperatures as compared to the earlier period of high fisheries production. Our analysis underscores the importance of understanding long-term drivers of fisheries productivity and the value of linking fisheries and climate histories.

Alaska

Late Miocene Colorado River arrival in the Bidahochi basin supports spillover origin of Grand Canyon

The timing and mechanism of the integration of the Colorado River and incision of the Grand Canyon remain among geology’s enduring controversies. A key question is the configuration of the upper Colorado River watershed between 11 and 6 million years ago. In this study, we present new evidence from zircon uranium-lead geochronology for the arrival of distinctive Colorado–Green River sediment in the Bidahochi basin by 6.6 million years ago derived from the Browns Park Formation. This is coeval with an order-of-magnitude increase in depositional rate, an increase in carbonate strontium isotope ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) ratios, the appearance of large fish species characteristic of fast-flowing waters, and other sedimentological changes. This evidence is consistent with the Colorado River supplying water and sediment to the Bidahochi basin before spillover integration of the river through the Grand Canyon.

Arizona, Nevada, Utah

Integrating marine historical ecology into management of Alaska’s Pacific cod fishery for climate readiness

The Pacific cod ( Gadus macrocephalus ) fishery was closed in 2020 after a rapid decline in biomass caused by the marine heat waves of 2014–2019. Pacific cod are exceptionally thermally sensitive and management of this fishery is now challenged by increasingly unpredictable climate conditions. Fisheries monitoring is critical for climate readiness, but short-term monitoring data may be inadequate for recognizing and anticipating change under rapid climate changes. We propose an interdisciplinary, marine historical ecology framework that looks to long-term records (local and traditional knowledge, history, archaeology, and paleoclimatology) to capture a long range of ecological variability and provide historical context for management. In order to connect to contemporary fisheries management, this framework must be built on a common vocabulary and an understanding of the key metrics used in fisheries stock assessments. Here, we propose metrics derived from Pacific cod stock assessment and synthesize information relevant to understanding the effects of past warming periods on cod populations across the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea. This case study provides a framework for thinking about how to use these historical records in the context of fisheries management under rapidly changing climate conditions.

Alaska

Future water constraints on United States lithium mining under climate change

Lithium is necessary for low-carbon technologies that combat climate change, but lithium extraction is water-intensive. Changes in temperature and precipitation arising from climate change are altering water distribution, which could further strain supplies for new mines and industry, farms, and households. Here we explored how climate change, water use, and mining siting could impact lithium mining in the United States. We analyzed whether there would be sufficient water available to support the single existing and 22 proposed U.S. lithium mines at mid-century under four socioeconomic-climate scenarios and five climate models. Though dependent on socioeconomic-climate scenario, climate model, and lithium deposit type, available water supply in most subbasins would likely be unable to support new mines’ water demands, or even non-mining water demands from other sectors. Water scarcity could hinder the ability of the United States to produce enough lithium to meet domestic demand thereby necessitating higher imports.

conterminous United States

Wet meadow regeneration through restoration of biophysical feedbacks

Wet meadows are globally significant ecosystems that provide critical hydrological, ecological, and biogeochemical functions, yet their extent has declined dramatically due to land use changes and hydrologic alteration. These sedge-dominated wetlands exist at the drier end of the wetland gradient, maintained by shallow groundwater and periodic inundation. This paper is a global synthesis of the ecological, geomorphic, and hydrological dynamics of wet meadows, with an emphasis on alluvial systems, to inform effective restoration strategies. We compare wet meadows to other wetlands, classify them into palustrine, lacustrine, and alluvial types, then focus on alluvial wet meadows and discuss how their formation and persistence depend on ground and surface water interactions, sediment deposition and flow obstructions, all mediated by biological processes. In particular, we highlight the role of hydric graminoids in resisting erosion and maintaining soil cohesion, how beaver promote meadow persistence, and the significance of wet meadows as carbon sinks. We also present stratigraphic evidence demonstrating that incision, often triggered by anthropogenic activity or changing climate, is the primary mechanism of alluvial wet meadow degradation, resulting in water table decline and shifts in vegetation composition. Restoration requires reversing these incisional processes through techniques that elevate water tables, disperse flow and retain sediment—methods traditionally associated with either soil conservation or stream restoration. These include nature-based solutions that create obstructions such as beaver dams and their analogues, rock and wood-based obstructions and incision trench or gully filling and grading. Given their multifunctional value—including but not limited to flood attenuation, biodiversity support, and carbon sequestration—wet meadows warrant a focused restoration framework. This review advocates for a valley-floor scale restoration paradigm that integrates hydrological reconnection, sediment retention, and biological reinforcement to ensure long-term resilience of these systems in the face of changing climate and land use pressures.

Frontiers in Environmental Science

A review of post-wildfire adaptations of surface-water-quality models: Synthesis, gaps, and opportunities

As wildfires increasingly affect water-supply watersheds, the demand for models to predict water-quality responses is increasing. This work reviews and synthesizes existing post-wildfire applications of water-quality models in the context of geographic and ecohydrological distribution, hydrologic and water-quality response process representation, model parameterization, model and input data scales, model calibration data availability, as well as calibration and performance evaluation approaches. Emphasis is placed on models that simulate water-quality output, rather than sediment and erosional response as the primary focus. Here, identified gaps and opportunities to advance the post-wildfire application of water-quality models include: 1. applying models in under-represented geographic and ecohydrologic regions, 2. simulating multiple streamflow generation mechanisms, including groundwater, with an emphasis on shifting dominant flow pathways as the landscape recovers following wildfire, 3. adding studies that include the simulation of metals, 4. incorporating more biogeochemical and in-stream processes to model applications, 5. applying finer spatial and temporal resolution of precipitation data input as well as finer spatial resolution hydrologic response units, 6. implementing fully distributed grid or element models or finer resolution response units to capture burn severity heterogeneity, 7. collecting enhanced water-quality data for model calibration and validation, 8. conducting model-intercomparison studies, and 9. developing model parameter value guidance in post-wildfire applications. These identified gaps and opportunities may assist users in deciding on key processes and approaches to consider in modeling post-wildfire water-quality conditions.

Science of the Total Environment

Foundational uncertainties in terminal Ediacaran chronostratigraphy revealed by high-precision zircon U-Pb geochronology of the Nama Group, Namibia

The Nama Group of southern Namibia and northwestern South Africa hosts the best-dated mixed carbonate-siliciclastic foreland basin succession of the terminal Ediacaran [ca. 551 million years (Ma) ago to <538 Ma] and is key for resolving the chronology of early metazoan evolution. Numerous silicified volcanic tuff interbeds are present, but differing interpretations regarding the fidelity of their ages lead to different regional stratigraphic correlations, especially for the Urusis Formation of the Schwarzrand Subgroup. An expanded record of the Urusis Formation is found in the Swartpunt area of southern Namibia, which has yielded an important metazoan biota. But the succession in this area is preserved as a series of thrusts at the leading edge of the Gariep orogenic belt and zircon U-Pb data show systematic age repetition. We use regional stratigraphic and structural mapping, integrated with carbonate carbon isotope (δ 13 C carb ) chemostratigraphy and high-precision radioisotope U-Pb zircon geochronology from outcrop and recently acquired drill core to develop a temporally calibrated basin-wide depositional model. This integrated dataset either reflects complex zircon reworking, inheritance, or potential analytical biases (Scenario 1) or the presence of a Gariep-related cryptic décollement within the Spitskop Member that has resulted in stratigraphic repetition (Scenario 2). We investigate the evidence for and against both scenarios and consider their implications for stratigraphic and δ 13 C carb correlations between the Swartpunt area and coeval exposures along the Orange River border with South Africa. Given that these issues are in an area that hosts numerous silicified ash beds and extensive exposure, an inability to confidently discount either scenario highlights a level of compounding uncertainty in zircon U-Pb geochronology that must be considered when attempting to build global chronostratigraphic frameworks. Scenario 1 implies that some of the weighted mean ages and Bayesian eruption ages from the Swartpunt area may be >1 Myr older than the depositional age of their respective ash beds when assuming existing stratigraphic correlations. If this scenario is preferred, then a cautious approach would be to consider all weighted mean zircon U-Pb ages from ash beds to reflect maximum depositional ages. Both scenarios support deposition of the Huns Member >540 Ma in the Swartpunt area if the oldest weighted mean age reported here represents a near-depositional age, which has significant implications for the temporal calibration of important terminal Ediacaran ichnofossil assemblages and future cyclostratigraphic studies. Stratigraphic correlations common to both scenarios allow us to temporally calibrate a basin evolution model for the Nama Group. Temporal trends in initial hafnium isotope (εHf) compositions of zircon grains from ash beds throughout the succession may support progressive crustal thickening associated with underplating of the Damara orogenic belt along the northern periphery of the Kalahari craton from ca. 547 Ma to ca. 538 Ma. The compilation of new and published zircon U-Pb ages may also imply that the locus of carbonate platform development migrated from north to south (present co-ordinates), tracking the migration of foredeep subsidence.

Earth-Science Reviews

Critical minerals in mine waste

Introduction Critical minerals are commodities with vulnerable supply chains that play a vital role in supporting the United States’ economy, national defense and security, emerging technologies, and energy independence. The prosperity of our Nation depends on generating a resilient supply of domestic critical minerals; mine waste may be an untapped source of these commodities. Mine waste from centuries of legacy mining persist on the landscape and may contain critical minerals and other valuable commodities previously deemed uneconomic to recover. At modern mines, the financial viability of recovering byproduct critical minerals, which are not the primary target, may be marginal and can ultimately destine them to mine waste. Further, mine waste can be a liability for the mining company or, at legacy mines, the taxpayer because of its effect on the landscape. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has several initiatives to evaluate critical mineral resources in various types of waste. This factsheet highlights studies of mine waste carried out by USGS scientists at the Geology, Energy & Minerals Science Center in collaboration with other science centers funded through the USGS Mineral Resources Program. Recovery of critical minerals from mine waste can aid in remediation efforts and increase domestic supply of vital mineral resources.

Fact Sheet

Deep critical zone controls on shallow landslides

The deep critical zone (CZ) has long been recognized for its importance in influencing shallow landslides but was not considered feasible to include in slope stability models at the watershed scale. In this study, we demonstrate that simple approximations of the CZ in a fully coupled hydrologic and soil slope stability model can effectively capture the location, timing, and likely size of shallow landslides. To achieve this, we use coupled, process-based models that incorporate the effects of 1) deep CZ structures, 2) three-dimensional transient hydrology, and 3) multidimensional slope stability, calibrated with data from an intensively monitored field site. Our results show that the hydrologically active deep CZ guides groundwater flow, influencing where it drains from or exfiltrates to the soil mantle, producing distinct patterns of soil saturation and seepage forces at the soil-bedrock boundary. Deep conductive weathered critical zone drains the soil mantle, reducing the likelihood of destabilizing pore pressures, while the downslope thinning of the CZ forces groundwater to the surface. This creates localized instability and a tendency for similar-sized landslides across the landscape. In contrast, the absence of conductive weathered bedrock results in more widespread destabilizing pore pressures, leading to larger landslides and the likelihood of landslides earlier in a storm than in landscapes underlain by a deep CZ. Our findings suggest that first-order variations of deep CZ can provide physical explanations for variations observed in the susceptibility, magnitude, and timing of shallow landslides, and that CZ structure may be inferred from patterns and timing of landsliding.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

The EnMAP spaceborne imaging spectroscopy mission: Initial scientific results two years after launch

Imaging spectroscopy has been a recognized and established remote sensing technology since the 1980s, mainly using airborne and field-based platforms to identify and quantify key bio- and geo-chemical surface and atmospheric compounds, based on characteristic spectral reflectance features in the visible-near infrared (VNIR) and short-wave infrared (SWIR). Spaceborne missions, a leap in technology, were sparse, starting with the CHRIS/PROBA and EO1/Hyperion missions in the early 2000s, and providing spectroscopy data with limited spectral coverage and/or low data quality in the SWIR. Since 2019, several countries and agencies have successfully launched a number of spaceborne imaging spectroscopy systems into orbit or deployed them on the International Space Station (ISS) such as DESIS, PRISMA, HISUI, GF-5, EnMAP and EMIT. Among these recent missions, the German Environmental Mapping and Analysis Program (EnMAP) stands for its long-term development, sophisticated design with on-board calibration, high data quality requirements, and extensive accompanying science program. EnMAP was launched in April 2022 and, following a successful commissioning phase, started its operational activities in November 2022. The EnMAP mission encompasses global coverage from 80° N to 80° S through on-demand data acquisitions. Data are free and open access with 30 m spatial resolution, a high spectral resolution with a spectral sampling distance of 6.5 nm and 10 nm in the VNIR and SWIR regions respectively, and a high signal-to-noise ratio. In this paper, we aim to present the mission's current status, coverage, science capabilities and performance two years after launch. We show the potential of EnMAP for space-based imaging spectroscopy to operate in various environments, including high and low light levels, dense forests, Antarctic glaciers, and arid agricultural areas. EnMAP enables various applications in fields such as agriculture and forestry, soil compositional, raw materials, and methane mapping, as well as water quality assessment, and snow and ice properties. The results show that EnMAP's performance exceeds the mission requirements, and highlights the significant potential for contribution to scientific exploitation in various geo- and biochemical sciences. EnMAP is also expected to serve as a key tool for the development and testing of data processing algorithms for upcoming global operational missions.

Remote Sensing of Environment

Effect of land cover type on 3D deformation recovery from synthetically deformed high-resolution satellite optical imagery

The limits of detection for earthquake surface deformation in the spatial domain have improved with advances in remote sensing imagery data availability, resolution, and analysis. Sub-pixel correlation and digital elevation model (DEM) differencing from sub-meter, earthquake-spanning satellite optical imagery has enhanced surface rupture mapping and deformation measurements. However, knowledge of measurement accuracy and uncertainty is limited. To address this, we construct orthophotos and digital elevation models (DEMs) from repeat high resolution (∼0.5 m) satellite optical imagery along two sections of the Garlock fault, California with clear fault geomorphology and differing land cover. We deform later sets of DEMs and images with synthetic earthquakes containing both diffuse and discrete horizontal and vertical displacements. Sub-pixel image correlation and DEM differencing demonstrate how vegetation degrades recovered displacement accuracy. In barren land cover, horizontal displacements are detectable to an expected ∼1/10th-pixel size. With shrubs, trees, and grass, detectable displacements increase to >1/2-pixel size, and filtering results by correlation score and using elevation values as input rather than image values improves accuracy. Vertical displacement detection thresholds remain lower in vegetation, at >1-pixel size. Higher slope angles degrade displacement recovery, worsened by vegetation. Diminishing seasonal separation improves accuracy over vegetated regions, though not to the level achieved in barren environments. These results will inform research and operational efforts on the utility of high resolution satellite optical imagery for detecting deformation in varied land cover. Furthermore, they reveal where alternative measurements, such as from LiDAR or radar interferometry, are required to mitigate the effects of vegetation and capture fine-scale crustal deformation.

California

Legacy of the fumigant 1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane (DBCP) in California groundwater

The fumigant pesticide 1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane (DBCP) was widely used in California agriculture during the 1960s and 1970s before being banned in 1979. Despite this ban, DBCP continues to contaminate groundwater due to its persistence and mobility. This study evaluates the distribution, historical trends, and projected persistence of DBCP in California using data from over 13,000 public supply wells and additional domestic, irrigation, and observation wells (1980-2022). Since 2010, DBCP has been detected in 9% of public supply wells statewide, with higher frequencies in the San Joaquin Valley (21%) and upper Santa Ana River watershed (13%), where DBCP use was most prevalent. Approximately 70% of wells had decreasing concentration trends, whereas increases were more common in deeper wells, indicating downward vertical migration of the DBCP front. Groundwater age estimates show that recharge timing aligns with the 1960s–1970s loading period, enabling reconstruction of peak inputs and providing a basis for age based modeling. To estimate future persistence, we applied a one dimensional advection–dispersion model that simulates long term declines in peak concentrations based on groundwater age, historical loading, and a 38 year degradation half life. Model projections suggest that concentrations above the maximum contaminant level may persist in a declining number of wells until approximately 2080 (range: 2048–2109), with longer persistence in the San Joaquin Valley. The simplified modeling framework, based on age distributions typical of wells capturing peak concentrations, can provide practical regional scale assessment of non-point source contaminants where long-term monitoring exists. This study highlights how the legacy of DBCP contamination will likely affect California's groundwater resources throughout the 21st century.

California

On-demand global Landsat evapotranspiration product: Development, evaluation, and dissemination

Global actual evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the essential climate variables needed to understand and manage the relationships among food, energy, and water resources. The U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center launched a provisional ET product in 2020, offering on-demand, field-scale global coverage derived from Landsat data through the EROS Science Processing Architecture (ESPA) platform. The ESPA interface provides ET data for cloud-free Landsat overpasses starting in 1982 with Landsat 4 through the current Landsat 9. The ET data are delivered as a Provisional Level-3 Science product created using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model. Landsat surface temperature and reference ET are the main model drivers along with vegetation index and net radiation for model parameterization. A large volume of Landsat-based ET orders (e.g., over 1,200,000 images from June 2020 through December 2025) around the world indicate increasing awareness and application of the ET data. The ESPA platform enables land and water resource managers and researchers to access a first-order ET product without requiring advanced knowledge of remote sensing technology or evapotranspiration modeling. We present the methodology and workflow of the on-demand Landsat ET product and its performance evaluations over diverse hydro-climatic settings. The product can help estimate field-scale consumptive water use and thus quickly and consistently assess historical water use, allocation, and budget to inform water management under changing environments. Future ET data aggregated to monthly and seasonal time scales are expected to enhance integration with decision-making tools and procedures.

Remote Sensing of Environment

Deaf, deafblind, and hard of hearing university student experiences with earthquake early warning in the United States: Evaluating language planning and technology access

The growing literature on deaf and hard of hearing (DHH+) populations and disasters demonstrates that emergency communication (including alerts) is not reaching global DHH + individuals with dangerous impacts for morbidity and mortality. This is the first research study in the U.S. to qualitatively explore the experiences of DHH + persons with earthquake early warning (EEW) through group-based dialogue sessions. The study investigates eight DHH + university students'past earthquake experiences, access to EEW alerts, and perceptions of ShakeAlert Ⓡ , an EEW system for detecting earthquakes and alerting residents of California, Oregon, and Washington. Findings highlight key gaps in disaster alert usability within four thematic areas: lack of messaging in participants' language(s), unclear alert messaging, deficient message delivery mechanisms for deafblind persons, and insufficient access to earthquake information and training that leads to dependence on informal information networks. Weaknesses identified in these four themes reduce DHH + trust in EEW systems and compromise the capacity of alert recipients to take swift protective action or to mentally prepare before shaking starts. The study also underscores structural factors such as insufficient linguistic representation in disaster language planning and technology design, which ignores the linguistic and sensory access needs of DHH + individuals. Building on disaster language planning frameworks, we recommend involving DHH + populations to co-develop EEW alerts. By centering DHH + perspectives, this research contributes to ongoing efforts to ensure that EEW systems reach everyone.

California

Evaluation of stream capture related to groundwater pumping, middle Humboldt River Basin, Nevada

Historical, future, and potential stream capture from groundwater pumping in the middle Humboldt River Basin (MHRB), Nevada, is estimated using a calibrated numerical groundwater flow model. The model was developed to estimate (1) stream capture, which is the change in flux between the groundwater system and the Humboldt River and tributaries, and (2) change in streamflow, which is the change in streamflow estimated for the Imlay gage on the Humboldt River (U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 10333000). Historical stream capture for water years (WYs) 1961–2015 is estimated using recorded and estimated groundwater pumping during that period. Future (predictive) stream capture was based on historical stresses (WYs 1961–2015) using a scenario that simulated non-mine pumping from WY 2015 at a uniform rate for 100 years into the future. Potential stream capture throughout the middle Humboldt River Basin from groundwater pumping during varying durations of time are presented in a series of capture maps. Maps also are presented that show the potential to capture from groundwater evapotranspiration, as well as the storage changes for pumping duration of 100 years. Estimates of historical stream capture from the mainstem Humboldt River during the early 1960s are less than 400 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) when groundwater withdrawals and pumping rates were relatively small compared to more recent times. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, groundwater withdrawals increased and estimated historical stream capture also increased from about 4,000 acre-ft/yr in the late 1980s and early 1990s to as much as 18,800 acre-feet (acre-ft) in WY 1998. In WY 2015, estimated historical stream capture declined to about 13,000 acre-ft because of decreasing groundwater withdrawals and lower streamflow during the drought of WYs 2012–15, resulting in less stream water available for capture. Stream capture was estimated for 100 years into the future based on WY 2015 non-mine pumping rates and mine-dewatering activity through WY 2015. Stream capture is forecast to increase to about 23,000 acre-ft/yr, and streamflow in the Humboldt River could decrease by as much as 19,000 acre-ft/yr. Pumping for mine-dewatering and the associated discharge of that water affects streamflow in the Humboldt River at Imlay, Nevada (U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 10333000). Historically, from WYs 1991 to 2015, streamflow was greater at Imlay gage during active mine-dewatering from mine-water discharge operations and increased by as much as 105,000 acre-ft in WY 1998. The increase was attributed mostly to the discharge of groundwater from mine-related dewatering operations directly into the mainstem Humboldt River or its tributaries, with some of this increase associated with return flows from discharge to rapid infiltration basins. Results indicate that streamflow at Imlay gage is expected to decrease by as much as 1,600 acre-ft/yr 30 years after mine-related pumping and discharge are discontinued. The streamflow reductions at the Imlay gage are expected to then decrease to around 500 acre-ft/yr, 100 years after mine-related pumping and discharge are discontinued. Potential capture maps were produced for pumping durations of 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. Capture map results indicate that areas of greater potential stream capture occur adjacent to the Humboldt River and for upstream tributaries areas north of the Humboldt River.

Nevada

Rare earth element-mineralized carbonatite in the Bear Lodge Alkaline Complex, USA—Ore genesis implications from fluid inclusion characterization

Rare earth element (REE) resources of the Bear Lodge Alkaline Complex, Wyoming, are hosted in variably leached carbonatite spatially related to diatreme breccia pipes. We investigated the genesis of REE and lesser-known gold resources through fluid inclusion analysis of carbonatite, fluorite breccia, and smoky quartz vein samples. Physicochemical characteristics of inclusion-trapped fluids were evaluated using petrography, microthermometry, Raman spectroscopy, decrepitate mound analysis, energy-dispersive spectroscopy, laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, and noble gas isotope analysis. Microthermometry results reveal three fluid types that affected carbonatite dikes within deeper zones that escaped near-surface, ore-grade REE enrichment: (1) high-temperature (330–432°C) magmatic fluid captured in fine-grained calcite; (2) REE-enriched alkali bicarbonate-sulfate brine; and (3) low-temperature (117–182°C) diluted magmatic or meteoric water. Multiphase brine-like inclusions contain burbankite, nahcolite, strontianite, celestine and alkali sulfate daughter crystals, linking them to early burbankite mineralization. Peripheral smoky quartz and fluorite occurrences at Smith Ridge, 1.5 km from the central carbonatite dike swarm, contain primary inclusions that are Cl-poor and rich in Na-HCO 3 -SO 4 , similar to secondary and pseudosecondary inclusions in carbonatites. Helium isotopes reveal a MORB-like source for carbonatite samples and an older crust signature at Smith Ridge, consistent with the proximal ridge-top exposures of Archean granite. Results from this fluid inclusion study coupled with previous studies of carbonatite mineral paragenesis, show that light REEs (LREEs) were not mobilized great distances. Instead, burbankite crystallized within carbonatite from alkali bicarbonate fluids. With sodium retained in early burbankite, outward-emanating fluids enriched in potassium relative to sodium (higher K:Na) resulted in potassium–ferric iron metasomatism of silicate host rocks. This alkali fractionation was accompanied by fractionation of LREEs and heavy REEs (HREEs), with LREEs dominating the central carbonatite resources. In contrast, areas of peripheral REE mineralization at Bear Lodge are commonly characterized by higher HREE:LREE ratios. The K:Na ratio of associated fenites or alteration assemblages could be indicative of early crystallized burbankite in carbonatites and REE fractionation processes potentially leading to areas of concentrated HREEs with greater supply vulnerabilities.

South Dakota, Wyoming