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Type specimens and basic principles of avian taxonomy

"Ornithology" may be defined as the scientific study of birds. No aspect of avian biology, including management and conservation, can be carried out without reference by name to birds at some taxonomic level. Thus, the names of species of birds, and of groups of species, can fairly be considered to be of primary importance in ornithology. To be useful, these names themselves must be defined and related to biological entities. The definition of a name is accomplished by the designation of a "type." The International Code of Zoological Nomenclature, in paragraph (C) of Article 72 (third edition, 1985), establishes criteria for eligibility of a name-bearing type. The type of a species or sub-species name is the biological specimen defined by the name, and later use of the name implies specific or subspecific identity with the type. It is imperative, therefore, that a type be available for study and comparison so that the identity of other material with it can be established.

The Auk

Polar Bears

Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) are hunted throughout most of their range. In addition to hunting polar bears of the Beaufort Sea region are exposed to mineral and petroleum extraction and related human activities such as shipping road-building, and seismic testing (Stirling 1990). Little was known at the start of this project about how polar bears move about in their environment, and although it was understood that many bears travel across political borders, the boundaries of populations had not been delineated (Amstrup 1986, Amstrup et al. 1986, Amstrup and DeMaster 1988, Garner et al. 1994, Amstrup 1995, Amstrup et al. 1995, Amstrup 2000). As human populations increase and demands for polar bears and other arctic resources escalate, managers must know the sizes and distributions of the polar bear populations. Resource managers also need reliable estimates of breeding rates, reproductive intervals, litter sizes, and survival of young and adults. Our objectives for this research were 1) to determine the seasonal and annual movements of polar bears in the Beaufort Sea, 2) to define the boundaries of the population(s) using this region, 3) to determine the size and status of the Beaufort Sea polar bear population, and 4) to establish reproduction and survival rates (Amstrup 2000).

Alaska, Northwest Territories, Yukon Territory

Incorporating climate change in a harvest risk assessment for polar bears Ursus maritimus in Southern Hudson Bay

Arctic marine mammals are harvested by Indigenous people for subsistence and are socially and culturally important. For ice-dependent species like the polar bear Ursus maritimus , management and conservation require understanding interactions between harvest and sea-ice loss due to climate change. We developed a demographic model to evaluate harvest risk for polar bears in Southern Hudson Bay, Canada, where the annual ice-free season has increased by approximately one month in recent decades. The model was based on the theta-logistic equation and allowed for density-dependent changes (through carrying capacity [ K ]) and density-independent changes (through population growth rate [ r ]). Model parameters were estimated using a Bayesian Monte Carlo method that included capture-recapture, aerial survey, and harvest data. Harvest management followed a state-dependent approach under which new estimates of abundance were used to update the harvest level every five years. Under a middle-of-the-road environmental scenario that assumed K and r would decline in proportion to projected sea-ice declines, annual removal of 0.02–0.03 of females resulted in a 0.8 probability of maintaining subpopulation abundance above maximum net productivity level for three polar bear generations (~34 years), our primary criterion for sustainability. Under more pessimistic and optimistic environmental scenarios, comparable female harvest rates were 0.01 and 0.055, respectively. Our coupled modeling-management framework can be used to inform tradeoffs between protection and sustainable use for wildlife populations experiencing habitat loss.

Southern Hudson Bay

Response of Yellowstone grizzly bears to changes in food resources: A synthesis. Final report to the Interagency Grizzly Bear Committee and Yellowstone Ecosystem Subcommittee

The Yellowstone grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos ) was listed as a threatened species in 1975 (Federal Register 40 FR:31734-31736). Since listing, recovery efforts have focused on increasing population size, improving habitat security, managing bear mortalities, and reducing bear-human conflicts. The Interagency Grizzly Bear Committee (IGBC; partnership of federal and state agencies responsible for grizzly bear recovery in the lower 48 states) and its Yellowstone Ecosystem Subcommitte (YES; federal, state, county, and tribal partners charged with recovery of grizzly bears in the Greater Yelowston Ecosystem [GYE]) tasked the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team to provide information and further research relevant to three concerns arising from the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals November 2011 decision: 1) the ability of grizzly bears as omnivores to find alternative foods to whitebark pine seeds; 2) literature to support their conclusions; and 3) the non-intuitive biological reality that impacts can occur to individuals without causing the overall population to decline. Specifically, the IGBC and YES requested a comprehensive synthesis of the current state of knowledge regarding whitebark pinbe decline and individual and population-level responses of grizzly bears to changing food resources in the GYE. This research was particularly relevant to grizzly bear conservation given changes in the population trajectory observed during the last decade.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming

Instream flow characterization of Upper Salmon River basin streams, central Idaho, 2005

Anadromous fish populations in the Columbia River Basin have plummeted in the last 100 years. This severe decline led to Federal listing of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) stocks as endangered or threatened under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) in the 1990s. Historically, the upper Salmon River Basin (upstream of the confluence with the Pahsimeroi River) in Idaho provided migration corridors and significant habitat for these ESA-listed species, in addition to the ESA-listed bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus). Human development has modified the original streamflow conditions in many streams in the upper Salmon River Basin. Summer streamflow modifications resulting from irrigation practices, have directly affected quantity and quality of fish habitat and also have affected migration and (or) access to suitable spawning and rearing habitat for these fish. As a result of these ESA listings and Action 149 of the Federal Columbia River Power System Biological Opinion of 2000, the Bureau of Reclamation was tasked to conduct streamflow characterization studies in the upper Salmon River Basin to clearly define habitat requirements for effective species management and habitat restoration. These studies include collection of habitat and streamflow information for the Physical Habitat Simulation System (PHABSIM) model, a widely applied method to determine relations between habitat and discharge requirements for various fish species and life stages. Model simulation results can be used by resource managers to guide habitat restoration efforts by evaluating potential fish habitat and passage improvements by increasing or decreasing streamflow. In 2005, instream flow characterization studies were completed on Big Boulder, Challis, Bear, Mill, and Morgan Creeks. Continuous streamflow data were recorded upstream of all diversions on Big Boulder. Instantaneous measurements of discharge were also made at selected sites. In addition, natural summer streamflows were estimated for each study site using regional regression equations. This report describes PHABSIM modeling results for bull trout, Chinook salmon, and steelhead trout during summer streamflows. Habitat/discharge relations were summarized for adult and spawning life stages at each study site. In addition, streamflow needs for riffle dwelling invertebrate taxa (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera) are presented. Adult fish passage and discharge relations were evaluated at specific transects that were identified as potential low-streamflow passage barriers at each study site. Continuous summer water temperature data for selected study sites were summarized and compared with Idaho Water Quality Standards and various water temperature requirements of targeted fish species. Results of these habitat studies can be used to prioritize and direct cost-effective actions to improve fish habitat for ESA-listed anadromous and native fish species in the basin. These actions may include acquiring water during critical low-flow periods by leasing or modifying irrigation delivery systems to minimize out-of-stream diversions.

Idaho

New insights into dietary management of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) and brown bears (U. arctos)

Although polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) and brown bears ( U. arctos ) have been exhibited in zoological gardens for centuries, little is known about their nutritional needs. Multiple recent studies on both wild and captive polar bears and brown bears have found that they voluntarily select dietary macronutrient proportions resulting in much lower dietary protein and higher fat or digestible carbohydrate concentrations than are currently fed in most zoos. These lower protein concentrations selected by both species maximized growth rates and efficiencies of energy utilization in brown bears and may play a role in reducing kidney, liver, and cardiovascular diseases in both species. Therefore, we propose the need for the development of new dietary regimens for both species in managed care that better reflect their macronutrient needs. We developed a new kibble that is higher in fat and lower in protein than typical diets that have been fed in managed care, has a fatty acid profile more consistent with wild bear diets, and has been readily consumed by both brown bears and polar bears. The kibble can be fed as the sole diet or as part of more complex diets with additional fruits, meats, or vegetables. Because many nutritional deficiencies and related diseases can take months or years to appear, we urge caution and continued long-term monitoring of bears and their diets to ensure their optimal health.

Zoo Biology

Mercury assessment and monitoring protocol for the Bear Creek Watershed, Colusa County, California

This report summarizes the known information on the occurrence and distribution of mercury (Hg) in physical/chemical and biological matrices within the Bear Creek watershed. Based on these data, a matrix-specific monitoring protocol for the evaluation of the effectiveness of activities designed to remediate Hg contamination in the Bear Creek watershed is presented. The monitoring protocol documents procedures for collecting and processing water, sediment, and biota for estimation of total Hg (TotHg) and monomethyl mercury (MMeHg) in the Bear Creek watershed. The concurrent sampling of TotHg and MMeHg in biota as well as water and sediment from 10 monitoring sites is designed to assess the relative bioavailability of Hg released from Hg sources in the watershed and identify environments conducive to Hg methylation. These protocols are designed to assist landowners, land managers, water quality regulators, and scientists in determining whether specific restoration/mitigation actions lead to significant progress toward achieving water quality goals to reduce Hg in Bear and Sulphur Creeks.

California

USGS-NPS Servicewide Benthic Mapping Program (SBMP) workshop report

Executive Summary The National Park Service (NPS) Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) Program recently allocated funds to initiate a benthic mapping program in ocean and Great Lakes parks in alignment with the NPS Ocean Park Stewardship 2007-2008 Action Plan. Seventy-four (ocean and Great Lakes) parks, spanning more than 5,000 miles of coastline, many affected by increasing coastal storms and other natural and anthropogenic processes, make the development of a Servicewide Benthic Mapping Program (SBMP) timely. The resulting maps and associated reports will be provided to NPS managers in a consistent servicewide format to help park managers protect and manage the 3 million acres of submerged National Park System natural and cultural resources. Of the 74 ocean and Great Lakes park units, the 40 parks with submerged acreage will be the focus in the early years of the SBMP. The NPS and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) convened a workshop (June 3-5, 2008) in Lakewood, CO. The assembly of experts from the NPS and other Federal and non-Federal agencies clarified the needs and goals of the NPS SBMP and was one of the key first steps in designing the benthic mapping program. The central needs for individual parks, park networks, and regions identified by workshop participants were maps including bathymetry, bottom type, geology, and biology. This workshop, although not an exhaustive survey of data-acquisition technologies, highlighted the more promising technologies being used, existing sources of data, and the need for partnerships to leverage resources. Workshop products include recommended classification schemes and management approaches for consistent application and products similar to other long-term NPS benthic mapping efforts. As part of the SBMP, recommendations from this workshop, including application of an improved version of the Coastal and Marine Ecological Classification Standard (CMECS), will be tested in several pilot parks. In 2008, in conjunction with the findings of this workshop, the NPS funded benthic mapping projects in Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, Golden Gate National Recreational Area, Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore, Gulf Islands National Seashore, Virgin Islands National Park, and Virgin Islands Coral Reef National Monument. Full design and protocols of the SBMP based on the findings of this workshop are detailed in a second document dedicated to the subject.

Open-File Report

Emerging prion disease drives host selection in a wildlife population

Infectious diseases are increasingly recognized as an important force driving population dynamics, conservation biology, and natural selection in wildlife populations. Infectious agents have been implicated in the decline of small or endangered populations and may act to constrain population size, distribution, growth rates, or migration patterns. Further, diseases may provide selective pressures that shape the genetic diversity of populations or species. Thus, understanding disease dynamics and selective pressures from pathogens is crucial to understanding population processes, managing wildlife diseases, and conserving biological diversity. There is ample evidence that variation in the prion protein gene (PRNP) impacts host susceptibility to prion diseases. Still, little is known about how genetic differences might influence natural selection within wildlife populations. Here we link genetic variation with differential susceptibility of white-tailed deer to chronic wasting disease (CWD), with implications for fitness and disease-driven genetic selection. We developed a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) assay to efficiently genotype deer at the locus of interest (in the 96th codon of the PRNP gene). Then, using a Bayesian modeling approach, we found that the more susceptible genotype had over four times greater risk of CWD infection; and, once infected, deer with the resistant genotype survived 49% longer (8.25 more months). We used these epidemiological parameters in a multi-stage population matrix model to evaluate relative fitness based on genotype-specific population growth rates. The differences in disease infection and mortality rates allowed genetically resistant deer to achieve higher population growth and obtain a long-term fitness advantage, which translated into a selection coefficient of over 1% favoring the CWD-resistant genotype. This selective pressure suggests that the resistant allele could become dominant in the population within an evolutionarily short time frame. Our work provides a rare example of a quantifiable disease-driven selection process in a wildlife population, demonstrating the potential for infectious diseases to alter host populations. This will have direct bearing on the epidemiology, dynamics, and future trends in CWD transmission and spread. Understanding genotype-specific epidemiology will improve predictive models and inform management strategies for CWD-affected cervid populations.

Ecological Applications

Ecosystem health in mineralized terrane — Data from podiform chromite (Chinese Camp mining district, California), quartz alunite (Castle Peak and Masonic mining districts, Nevada/California), and Mo/Cu porphyry (Battle Mountain mining district, Nevada) deposits

The myriad definitions of soil/ecosystem quality or health are often driven by ecosystem and management concerns, and they typically focus on the ability of the soil to provide functions relating to biological productivity and/or environmental quality. A variety of attempts have been made to create indices that quantify the complexities of soil quality and provide a means of evaluating the impact of various natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Though not without their limitations, indices can improve our understanding of the controls behind ecosystem processes and allow for the distillation of information to help link scientific and management communities. In terrestrial systems, indices were initially developed and modified for agroecosystems; however, the number of studies implementing such indices in nonagricultural systems is growing. Soil quality indices (SQIs) are typically composed of biological (and sometimes physical and chemical) parameters that attempt to reduce the complexity of a system into a metric of a soil’s ability to carry out one or more functions. The indicators utilized in SQIs can be as varied as the studies themselves, reflecting the complexity of the soil and ecosystems in which they function. Regardless, effective soil quality indicators should correlate well with soil or ecosystem processes, integrate those properties and processes, and be relevant to management practices. Commonly applied biological indicators include measures associated with soil microbial activity or function (for example, carbon and nitrogen mineralization, respiration, microbial biomass, enzyme activity. Cost, accessibility, ease of interpretation, and presence of existing data often dictate indicator selection given the number of available measures. We employed a large number of soil biological, chemical, and physical measures, along with measures of vegetation cover, density, and productivity, in order to test the utility and sensitivity of these measures within various mineralized terranes. We were also interested in examining these relations in the context of determining appropriate reference conditions with which to compare reclamation efforts. The purpose of this report is to present the data used to develop indices of soil and ecosystem quality associated with mineralized terranes (areas enriched in metal-bearing minerals), specifically podiform chromite, quartz alunite, and Mo/Cu porphyry systems. Within each of these mineralized terranes, a nearby unmineralized counterpart was chosen for comparison. The data consist of soil biological, chemical, and physical parameters, along with vegetation measurements for each of the sites described below. Synthesis of these data and index development will be the subject of future publications.

California

Public acceptability of development in the Northern Forest of Vermont, USA – the influence of wildlife information, recreation involvement, and demographic characteristics

Increasing development such as roads and houses will alter future landscapes and result in biological, social, and economic trade-offs. Managing development requires information on the public’s acceptability of development and understanding which factors shape acceptability. In this study, we examined three questions: 1) What is the public’s acceptability of development? 2) Is acceptability of development influenced by wildlife information? and 3) Is the maximum amount of acceptable development influenced by views about wildlife, involvement in outdoor recreation, and demographic factors? We conducted a visual-preference survey of 9,000 households in Vermont, USA that asked about acceptable levels of development, acceptability of wildlife, involvement in recreation, and individual and town demographics. The survey response rate was 44%. Maximum acceptable condition (MAC) for development was 41 houses/km 2 and not meaningfully influenced by broader consequences of development on seven common wildlife species. MAC was influenced by views on individual species, including bear and coyote, but not by other species such as deer, fox, and bobcat. Respondents with a positive attitude toward bear favored less development, whereas the opposite relationship existed for coyote. Similarly, MAC was negatively influenced by involvement in birding and hunting, but not by other common recreational activities. Among demographic factors, respondents that were younger and not born in Vermont were more accepting of development. Population density also positively influenced development acceptability. Results provide measures of the public’s acceptability of development that can help guide decision-making about development, wildlife, and recreation management.

Vermont

Sex-specific variation in denning by brown bears

Denning characteristics of brown bears ( Ursus arctos ) have been described in numerous studies; however, population specific factors (i.e., landscape characteristics and climate) can greatly influence the location and timing of denning. Our objective was to evaluate den-site characteristics and denning chronology for male and female brown bears in Lake Clark National Park and Preserve, Alaska. We used maximum entropy modeling to characterize attributes of den sites and generalized linear mixed models to compare denning chronology between males and females. We located 70 den sites (19 male and 51 female) and documented den entrance ( n = 61 [15 male and 46 female]) and emergence ( n = 60 [13 male and 47 female]) dates for bears from fall 2014 to spring 2017. The best performing model for estimating probable male den-site use (AUC = 0.862) was most influenced by slope (79.5%). The most parsimonious female model (AUC = 0.910) included elevation (49.3%), slope (43.1%), and aspect (7.6%). Female brown bears on average denned at higher elevations (868, SE = 190 m) than males (762, SE = 195 m) ( F 1,73 = 4.08, P = 0.047). Additionally, female bears entered dens 8 days earlier than males (SE = 12.82; 20 and 28 October, respectively, P = 0.04), and although not significant ( P = 0.09), average female den emergence dates were 7 days (SE = 15.14) later than males. With the potential for increased human activities (i.e. resource extraction and associated access), gaining an understanding of population specific denning requirements is essential for developing future management actions. Our results provide valuable information that will allow decision makers to structure future development in a way that avoids habitats important for denning, and allows for reduced disturbance of winter den sites.

Alaska

Recommendations for a barrier island breach management plan for Fire Island National Seashore, including the Otis Pike High Dune Wilderness Area, Long Island, New York

The U.S Army Corps of Engineers, New York District is developing engineering plans, including economic costs and benefits, for storm damage reduction along an 83 mile stretch of the coastal barrier islands and beaches on the south shore of Long Island, NY from Fire Island Inlet east to the Montauk Point headland. The plan, expected to include various alternatives for storm protection and erosion mitigation, is referred to as the Fire Island to Montauk Point Reformulation Plan (FIMP). These plans are expected to follow the Corps of Engineers’ Environmental Operating Principles striving for long term environmental sustainability and balance between environmental protection and protection of human health and property. Fire Island National Seashore (FIIS), a 19,579 acre unit of the National Park System includes a 32 mile long coastal barrier island located within the FIMP project area. A seven-mile section of the park, Otis Pike Fire Island High Dune Wilderness Area, is also a designated Federal Wilderness Area. The FIIS includes not only the barrier island and sand dunes, but also several islands, sand flats and wetlands landward of the barrier, submerged parts of Great South Bay shoreface, extending approximately 4,000 feet into the bay with the inner shelf region extending approximately 1,000 feet seaward of the Fire Island shoreline. The Fire Island barrier islands, a sand-starved system dominated by highly dynamic processes, are struggling to maintain their integrity in the face of sea-level rise and storms. Adding to the dilemma is that development on the barriers and the mainland has increased greatly during the past 50 years. As such, managers and decision makers in federal agencies, state agencies and local governments are challenged to balance tradeoffs between protection of lives and property, public access and long term conservation of natural habitats and processes and the plants and animals that depend on these habitats. National Park Service (NPS) policy stipulates that natural coastal processes be maintained to the greatest extent possible and not be impeded so as to conserve landforms, habitats and natural ecosystem resources that reply on the landforms and processes for long-term sustainability of the national park. Storms and associated processes such as waves, tides, currents and relative sea-level change are critical elements for the formation and evolution of these barrier islands, sand dunes, back-barrier sand flats and lagoons and vegetated wetlands. Processes such as wave run-up, overwash and barrier beaching, which occur during elevated storm surge are all necessary processes in enabling the efficient transfer of sediments, nutrients and marine water from the Atlantic Ocean across barriers and into Great South Bay. A large body of scientific data and information published over the past 50 years shows that such transfers of sediment and water from the ocean to the bays are essential for the long-term maintenance of the barrier island and back-bay systems and their biologically diverse habitats an d ecosystems. Current relative sea-level rise (~12 in/century) is chronic and pervasive in driving Long Island coastal change and with the likelihood of accelerating sea level rise in the near future, coastal hazards such as erosion, inundation, and storm surge flooding will increase, with corresponding increased risk to life and property on both Fire Island and on the mainland. In addition, the cumulative effects over the past century and more, both direct and indirect, of human impacts on the Long Island coast have altered the barrier beach and dunes and sediment transport processes. These impacts have likely increased the potential for breaching and increased risk to life and property on the coast and the mainland. Examples of direct impacts are: the stone jetties at Moriches, Shinnecock, and Fire Island tidal inlets and groin field structures at Westhampton that alter littoral processes, armoring and erosion-control stabilization of the headlandds such as the Montauk Point headlands, and deepening of navigation channels by dredging through the tidal inlets and in the bays. Indirect impacts that have a bearing on decisions to deal with breaching are: high-risk development of the barrier islands and low-lying areas of the mainland vulnerable to flooding, and the dredging of nearshore sand shoals for beach nourishment. The NPS strives to employ a coastal management framework for decision making that is based on assessment of the physical and ecological properties of the shoreline as well as human welfare and property. In order to protect developed areas of Fire Island and the mainland from loss of life, flooding, and other economic and physical damage, the NPS will likely need to consider allowing artificial closure of some breaches within the FIIS under certain circumstances. The decision by the NPS to allow breaches to evolve naturally and possibly close or to allow artificially closing breaches is based on four criteria: 1. Volumes of sediment transported landward and exchange of water and nutrients; 2. Elevated water levels and flooding risk to mainland life and property; 3. Engineering processes of artificial closure; and 4. Economic costs and benefits of artificial closure. This report for breach management presents protocols which specify when breach closures within the FIIS might be desirable and necessary, as well as provides recommendations for structural breach closure engineering operations which are indented to minimize negative impacts to the natural wilderness values and cultural resources within the FIIS, particularly the Otis Pike Wilderness Area. The goal of the plan is to strike a balance between protecting natural resources and allowing natural processes to operate and avoiding loss of life and excessive property damage.

New York

Hydrological, geological, and biological site characterization of breccia pipe uranium deposits in Northern Arizona

On July 21, 2009, U.S. Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar proposed a two-year withdrawal of about 1 million acres of Federal land near the Grand Canyon from future mineral entry. These lands are contained in three parcels: two parcels on U.S. Bureau of Land Management land to the north of the Grand Canyon (North and East Segregation Areas) and one on the Kaibab National Forest south of the Grand Canyon (South Segregation Area). The purpose of the two-year withdrawal is to examine the potential effects of restricting these areas from new mine development for the next 20 years. This proposed withdrawal initiated a period of study during which the effects of the withdrawal must be evaluated. At the direction of the Secretary, the U.S. Geological Survey began a series of short-term studies designed to develop additional information about the possible effects of uranium mining on the natural resources of the region. Dissolved uranium and other major, minor, and trace elements occur naturally in groundwater as the result of precipitation infiltrating from the surface to water-bearing zones and, presumably, to underlying regional aquifers. Discharges from these aquifers occur as seeps and springs throughout the region and provide valuable habitat and water sources for plants and animals. Uranium mining within the watershed may increase the amount of radioactive materials and heavy metals in the surface water and groundwater flowing into Grand Canyon National Park and the Colorado River, and deep mining activities may increase mobilization of uranium through the rock strata into the aquifers. In addition, waste rock and ore from mined areas may be transported away from the mines by wind and runoff.

Scientific Investigations Report

Threats to desert tortoise populations: a critical review of the literature

Decision in resource management are generally based on a combination of sociopolitical, economic, and environmental factors, and may be biased by personal values. These three components often contradict each other resulting in controversy. Controversies can usually be reduced when solid scientific evidence is used to support or refute a decision. However, it is important to recognize that data often do little to alter antagonists' positions when differences in values are the bases if the dispute. But, supporting data can make the decision more defensible, both legally and ethically, especially if the data supporting all opposing viewpoints are included in the decision-making process. Resource management decisions must be made using the best scientific information currently available. However, scientific data vary in two important measures of quality: reliability and validity. The reliability of the data is a measure of the degree to which the observations or conclusion can be repeated. Validity of the data is a measure of the degree to which the observation or conclusion reflects what actually occurs in nature. How the data are collected strongly affects the reliability of validity of ecological conclusions that can be made. Research data potentially relevant to management come from different sources, and the source often provides clues to the reliability and, to a certain extent, validity of data. Understanding the quality of data being used to make management decisions helps to separate the philosophical or value-based aspects of arguments from the objective ones, thus helping to clarify the decisions and judgments that need to be made. The West Mojave Plan is a multispecies, bioregional plan for the management of natural resources within a 9.4 million-acre area of the Mojave Desert in California. The plan addresses the legal requirements for the recovery of the desert tortoise ( Gopherus agazzizii ), a threatened species, but also covers an additional approximately 80 species of plants and animals assigned special status by the Bureau of Land Management, U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and California Department of Fish and Game. Within the planning area, 28 separate jurisdictions (counties, cities, towns, military installations, etc.) seek programmatic prescriptions that will facilitate streamlined environmental review, result in expedited authorization for development projects, and protect listed and unlisted species into the foreseeable future to avoid or minimize conflicts between proposed development and species' conservation and recovery. All of the scientific data available concerning the biology and management of these approximately 80 species and their habitats must be evaluated to develop a scientifically credible plan. This document provides an overview and evaluation of the knowledge of the major threats to the persistence and recovery of desert tortoise populations. I was specifically asked to evaluate the scientific veracity of the data and reports available. I summarize the data presently available with particular focus on the West Mojave Desert, evaluate the scientific integrity of the data. and identify major gaps in the available knowledge. I do not attempt to provide in-depth details on each study or threat; for more details I encourage the reader to consult the individual papers or reports city throughout this report (many of which are available at most university libraries and at the West Mojave Plan office in Riverside, California). I also do not attempt to characterize or evaluate the past or present management actions, except where they have direct bearing on evaluation of threats, nor do I attempt, for the most part, to acquire, generate, or evaluate new or existing, but uninterpreted data.

California

Estimating the abundance of the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation with aerial surveys

The Southern Hudson Bay (SH) polar bear subpopulation occurs at the southern extent of the species’ range. Although capture–recapture studies indicate abundance was likely unchanged between 1986 and 2005, declines in body condition and survival occurred during the period, possibly foreshadowing a future decrease in abundance. To obtain a current estimate of abundance, we conducted a comprehensive line transect aerial survey of SH during 2011–2012. We stratified the study site by anticipated densities and flew coastal contour transects and systematically spaced inland transects in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and large offshore islands in 2011. Data were collected with double-observer and distance sampling protocols. We surveyed small islands in James Bay and eastern Hudson Bay and flew a comprehensive transect along the Québec coastline in 2012. We observed 667 bears in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and nearby islands in 2011, and we sighted 80 bears on offshore islands during 2012. Mark–recapture distance sampling and sight–resight models yielded an estimate of 860 (SE = 174) for the 2011 study area. Our estimate of abundance for the entire SH subpopulation (943; SE = 174) suggests that abundance is unlikely to have changed significantly since 1986. However, this result should be interpreted cautiously because of the methodological differences between historical studies (physical capture–recapture) and this survey. A conservative management approach is warranted given previous increases in duration of the ice-free season, which are predicted to continue in the future, and previously documented declines in body condition and vital rates.

Polar Biology

San Francisco Bay/delta regional monitoring program plankton and water quality pilot study, 1993, in 1993 Annual Report, San Francisco Estuary Regional Monitoring Program for Trace Substances: San Francisco Estuary Institute

The pilot program described here is motivated by a fundamental principle of the Regional Monitoring Strategy, namely “...the development of data that will provide information on status and trends in the Estuary.” As pointed out in the Strategy, knowledge of status and trends serves two primary purposes: (1) to become aware of or anticipate deleterious conditions in the Estuary, and (2) to assess the effectiveness of management actions. This program addresses these two purposes by focusing on aquatic resources, one of the five key management issues identified by the Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan and central to the Regional Monitoring Strategy. It also bears on at least two of the other management issues - pollutants and water use. A regional monitoring program must cover many types of resources, including pelagic and benthic channel habitat, shoal habitat, wetlands, river channels, sloughs, and small bays and harbors. This particular program centers on the pelagic channel habitat. However, because of the intimate connection between channel habitat and many or most of these other habitats, channel measurements reflect to some extent the status of and trends in other resource types as well. A primary aim of this program is to provide a high-resolution description of critical aspects of habitat quality, which can be used along with other information (1) to determine the suitability of habitat for aquatic resources; (2) to monitor responsiveness of the habitat to freshwater flow variability; and (3) to provide a context for understanding pollutant distributions. In a single transect, measurements are made throughout the water column at up to 37 stations to define physical (salinity, temperature, suspended particulate matter, and light penetration), chemical (dissolved oxygen) and biological (chlorophyll a ) characteristics that influence both chemical and biological reactions. A second aim of the program is to investigate planktonic indicators of ecosystem structure and function. Phytoplankton production is the major single source of energy for the San Francisco Bay food web. Our measurements of chlorophyll and light penetration can be used to provide an estimate of this production, and therefore the availability of food for organisms at higher trophic levels. Phytoplankton community composition at the species level, which can be a sensitive indicator of habitat change, is also a standard component of this program. Community composition data enable detection of species known to be responsible for harmful or nuisance algal blooms. In 1993, two other indicators were also evaluated, photosynthetic parameters and water column respiration . Photosynthetic parameters partially characterize the physiological state of the phytoplankton and may provide indirect evidence of nutrient deficiency or the effects of pollutants. Water column respiration serves as a simple integrated measure of organic matter metabolism by the plankton, including bacteria, phytoplankton, and microzooplankton. It therefore reflects the total supply of organic matter, whether from photosynthesis, tidal marsh efflux, point sources, or upstream in the Delta. These biological indicators therefore contain much information about the flow of energy into the food web.

California

Negative binomial models for abundance estimation of multiple closed populations

Counts of uniquely identified individuals in a population offer opportunities to estimate abundance. However, for various reasons such counts may be burdened by heterogeneity in the probability of being detected. Theoretical arguments and empirical evidence demonstrate that the negative binomial distribution (NBD) is a useful characterization for counts from biological populations with heterogeneity. We propose a method that focuses on estimating multiple populations by simultaneously using a suite of models derived from the NBD. We used this approach to estimate the number of female grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone ecosystem, for each year, 1986-1998. Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC) indicated that a negative binomial model with a constant level of heterogeneity across all years was best for characterizing the sighting frequencies of female grizzly bears. A lack-of-fit test indicated the model adequately described the collected data. Bootstrap techniques were used to estimate standard errors and 95% confidence intervals. We provide a Monte Carlo technique, which confirms that the Yellowstone ecosystem grizzly bear population increased during the period 1986-1998.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming