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USGS2025

USGS—An Unparalleled Scientific Asset

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) delivers information critical to powering our economy, managing our natural resources, and keeping Americans safe and healthy. 1 Mapping the Nation $21B Geologic maps save users an estimated 15% in annual costs: a value of between $14B and $21B. $25.6B in annual value to users of imagery from Landsat satellites, which were codeveloped by NASA and the USGS and operated through their lifespans by the USGS. $13.5B in annual benefits is generated by the USGS's 3D Elevation Program. Securing America’s Energy Independence 44% USGS-identified undiscovered geothermal energy is equal to 44% of current U.S. electricity generation. 29.4B barrels of oil and 391.6 trillion cubic feet of gas in recoverable resources are available on U.S. public lands based on USGS assessments. Protecting Americans’ Health and Safety $424B in recent wildland fire damages highlight the need for USGS fire science, which supports efforts to protect communities and reduce risk. USGS earthquake, volcano, landslide, and coastal hazard monitoring and information save lives and minimize costs; for example, $2.8M can be saved because of USGS enhanced information about a Mauna Loa eruption. $4.5B is the estimated cost of annual flooding. Through a network of over 11,885 streamgages, the USGS supports public safety and enables forecasts, early warning systems, and management actions that protect lives and property. Supporting National Security $3.1B The USGS identified a $3.1B risk to the American economy if China restricts gallium imports. This is one example underscoring the importance of the USGS mapping critical minerals, investigating supply chains, and producing the Nation’s critical minerals list. Enhancing Our Lands and Waters $21B in estimated annual costs results from invasive species. The USGS’s invasive species research informs approaches used to reduce their effects on agriculture, water infrastructure, disease transmission, fisheries, and outdoor recreation. USGS innovations support early warnings for harmful algal blooms—over $2M in yearly benefits are provided to Kansas alone. $45B USGS science informs the management of big game (such as deer and elk). The big-game hunting industry contributes $45B to the U.S. economy. Fostering American Prosperity $4.1T Mineral commodities are necessary for the $4.1T in value added to the GDP by major industries that consume processed mineral materials and employ 1 million workers. Because of this, USGS data on mineral supply, demand, and trade are highly valued. 45,000 metric tons Rare earths power the growing technology economy, including cell phones, electric vehicles, and medical devices. For over 70 years, USGS work has supported the discovery of rare earth resources in California’s Mountain Pass area, which produced 45,000 metric tons of rare earth concentrates in 2024—over 11% of the global supply. Guarding American Food Security $70.2B USGS science informs early warning systems and management strategies to mitigate disease outbreaks in agriculture—critical research on highly pathogenic avian influenza, for example, helps safeguard the $70B value in poultry and egg production. $11.8B USGS groundwater tools are vital for agriculture; for example, in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain, 65% of farming relies on groundwater to support its $11.8B annual industry. 1 Values throughout are given in billions (B), millions (M), and trillions (T) of U.S. dollars. GDP is “Gross Domestic Product.” Percentages are shown as %.

General Information Product↗
USGS2012

Effect of 17β-trenbolone on male and female reproduction in Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica)

The anabolic steroid 17β trenbolone (17β-TB), a known endocrine disrupting chemical, may influence reproductive functions in avian wildlife. We evaluated the effects of dietary exposure to 17β-TB at 5 and 20 ppm on reproductive functional endpoints in Japanese quail during and after sexual maturation. In the male, 5 and 20 ppm treatments revealed no differences in body and testes weight, testes histology, plasma testosterone concentrations, or size and weight of the foam glands. However, the onset of foam production was significantly earlier (days of age) in the 20 ppm males. In females, dietary 17β-TB at 20 ppm caused a reduction in the number of maturing yellow yolk follicles and overall egg production. Plasma testosterone concentrations were reduced compared to controls. Histology of the oviductal sperm storage tubules was normal in all treatments. The number of sperm holes, sites on the perivitelline layer (PVL) where sperm bound and hydrolyzed a path through the PVL, was significantly greater in the 10th egg laid compared to the 1st egg laid in the 20 ppm treatment. Potential effects, albeit transient, on endpoints associated with male maturation warrant further investigation into the sensitivity of these measures in the event of embryonic and/or trans-generational exposure to 17β-TB.

Avian Biology Research↗
USGS2013

Sex determination of duck embryos: observations on syrinx development

Ducks exhibit sexual dimorphism in vocal anatomy. Asymmetrical ossification of the syrinx ( bulla syringealis ) is discernable at about 10 days of age in male Pekin duck ( Anas platyrhynchos domestica ) embryos, but information is lacking on the early development of the bulla in wild ducks. To evaluate the reliability of this characteristic for sexing developing embryos, we examined the syrinx of dead embryos and compared results with molecular sexing techniques in high arctic nesting Common Eiders ( Somateria mollissima ). Embryos 8 days or older were accurately (100%) sexed based on the presence/absence of a bulla, 2 days earlier than Pekin duck. The use of the tracheal bulla can be a valuable technique when sex identification of embryos or young ducklings is required.

Avian Biology Research↗
USGS2017

Development of microsatellite loci exhibiting reverse ascertainment bias and a sexing marker for use in Emperor Geese (Chen canagica)

The Alaskan population of Emperor Geese ( Chen canagica ) nests on the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta in western Alaska. Numbers of Emperor Geese in Alaska declined from the 1960s to the mid-1980s and since then, their numbers have slowly increased. Low statistical power of microsatellite loci developed in other waterfowl species and used in previous studies of Emperor Geese are unable to confidently assign individual identity. Microsatellite loci for Emperor Goose were therefore developed using shotgun amplification and next-generation sequencing technology. Forty-one microsatellite loci were screened and 14 were found to be polymorphic in Emperor Geese. Only six markers – a combination of four novel loci and two loci developed in other waterfowl species – are needed to identify an individual from among the Alaskan Emperor Goose population. Genetic markers for identifying sex in Emperor Geese were also developed. The 14 novel variable loci and 15 monomorphic loci were screened for polymorphism in four other Arctic-nesting goose species, Black Brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ), Greater White-fronted ( Anser albifrons ), Canada ( B. canadensis ) and Cackling ( B. hutchinsii ) Goose. Emperor Goose exhibited the smallest average number of alleles (3.3) and the lowest expected heterozygosity (0.467). Greater White-fronted Geese exhibited the highest average number of alleles (4.7) and Cackling Geese the highest expected heterozygosity (0.599). Six of the monomorphic loci were variable and able to be characterised in the other goose species assayed, a predicted outcome of reverse ascertainment bias. These findings fail to support the hypothesis of ascertainment bias due to selection of microsatellite markers.

Alaska↗
USGS2022

An evaluation of transmitter effects on adult and juvenile Common Terns using leg-loop harness attachments

Marking birds with transmitters allows for the collection of data that are critical for fully understanding avian life history, but researchers must also be confident that performing such studies is as safe as possible for transmittered individuals. While much could be learned from tracking juveniles across dependency periods and first migration, doing so would require a harness-based attachment method which has not been evaluated on any species of juvenile tern. Therefore, we monitored the reproductive success and behavior of adult Common Terns ( Sterna hirundo ) and the growth and behavior of juvenile Common Terns after attaching transmitters to adults and juveniles with leg-loop harnesses made of elastic cord. We found that transmittered adults had similar reproductive success to untransmittered controls (hatching success for nests of transmittered adults = 0.553; nests of control adults = 0.665). Transmittered adults also expressed minimal behavioral differences from untransmittered controls when the groups were compared via paired treatment-control nest observations along with observations away from the nest. Transmittered juveniles had similar fledging success and growth rates to untransmittered control juveniles (fledging success for transmittered juveniles = 0.766; control juveniles = 0.817). Transmittered juveniles exhibited slight differences in behavior from controls, with increased rates of preening, although these differences did not appear to be detrimental. Finally, monitoring efforts during the breeding season following transmitter deployment found no difference in the return rate, nesting attempt rate, or hatching success rate based on treatment (P > 0.05). However, despite evidence of an individual retaining its transmitter into fall migration, no individuals retained their transmitters when resighted the following breeding season. While our results show that leg-loop harnesses made of elastic cord present a potential option for transmitter attachment to both adult and juvenile Common Terns, additional testing could provide further insight into potential long-term impacts.

Journal of Field Ornithology↗
USGS2009

Factors related to the artificial incubation of wild bird eggs

Attempts to artificially incubate the eggs of wild birds have failed in many respects in duplicating the success of natural incubation. As part of a larger study we had the opportunity to artificially incubate the eggs of 22 species of birds (three domestic and 19 wild species). We report the successes and failures associated with artificial incubation of these eggs. Moisture loss varied widely, not only for Orders of birds but for similar species within an Order. Overall hatching success and success through to 90% of incubation varied for different Orders and for similar species. Humidity and temperature are critical elements in the artificial incubation of wild bird eggs and must be closely monitored throughout incubation to ensure the best possible chance of hatching. Even when these elements are addressed, artificial incubation still can not duplicate the success of incubation by the parent.

Avian Biology Research↗
USGS1990

Tuberculosis in wild birds: implications for captive birds

The geographic distribution of avian tuberculosis is widespread but the lack of visible epizootics makes assessment of its impact on wild birds difficult. Generally a low prevalence, widely-scattered, individual animal disease, avian tuberculosis is caused by the same agent in wild and domestic birds. Thus there exists the potential for disease transfer between these two groups in situations that result in direct contact such as wild animals newly captured or transferred from rehabilitation centers, and wild and captive animals intermingling in exhibit areas. During the past 7 yr, tuberculosis caused by Mycobacterium avium, was diagnosed in 64 birds submitted to the National Wildlife Health Research Center from 16 states; avian tuberculosis was the primary diagnosis in 52 of the 64 birds, while the remaining 12 isolates were incidental findings. Twenty-eight of these birds were picked up during epizootics caused by other disease agents including avian cholera, botulism type C, and lead, organophosphorus compound, and cyanide poisoning. Twelve birds were found incidental to birds collected during disease monitoring programs and research projects, and 10 birds were collected by hunters or found sick and euthanatized. Tuberculosis lesions occurred (in order of decreasing frequency) in the liver, intestine, spleen, lung, and air sacs. Several unusual morphological presentations were observed in the gizzard, shoulder joint, jugular vein, face, nares and bill, ureter and bone marrow. Infected birds were collected during all 12 mo of the yr from a variety of species in the Anseriformes, Podicipediformes, Gruiformes, and Falconiformes. Nine of the 46 known age birds were immature indicating that lesions can develop during the first year.

Book↗
USGS2000

Studying wildlife at local and landscape scales: Bachman's Sparrows at the Savannah River Site

In the late 1980s and early 1990s, mutual research interests between land managers at the Savannah River Site and biologists at the University of Georgia resulted in a landscape-ecology study of the Bachman's Sparrow (Aimophila aestivalis). This species had been declining throughout its range for several decades and was considered a species of management concern by the U.S. Forest Service. The reasons for its decline were obscure, but the distribution of suitable habitat across complex landscapes was a possible factor. Thus the species seemed well suited for a pioneer study on landscape influences on avian population dynamics. A cooperative research program developed from these mutual interests, including quantifying the landscape and local habitat patterns shown by the sparrow, spatially explicit modeling of population response to landscape change, and demographic field studies of reproductive success, survivorship and dispersal. These studies are summarized, and the value of the research to both management and research interests is discussed.

Book chapter↗
USGS2006

Avian influenza virus and free-ranging wild birds

Recent media and news reports and other information implicate wild birds in the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Asia and Eastern Europe. Although there is little information concerning highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses in wild birds, scientists have amassed a large amount of data on low-pathogenicity avian influenza viruses during decades of research with wild birds. This knowledge can provide sound guidance to veterinarians, public health professionals, the general public, government agencies, and other entities with concerns about avian influenza.

Asia, Eastern Europe↗
USGS2020

Mate fidelity improves survival and breeding propensity of a long‐lived bird

Evolutionary and behavioural ecologists have long been interested in factors shaping the variation in mating behaviour observed in nature. Although much of the research on this topic has focused on the consequences of mate choice and mate change on annual reproductive success, studies of a potential positive link between mate fidelity and adult demographic rates have been comparatively rare. This is particularly true for long‐lived birds with multi‐year, socially monogamous pair bonds. We used a 26‐year capture–mark–recapture dataset of 3,330 black brent Branta bernicla nigricans to test whether breeding with a familiar mate improved future breeding propensity and survival. We predicted that experienced breeders nesting with a new partner would have rates of survival similar to familiar pairs because long‐lived species avoid jeopardizing survival since their lifetime fitness is sensitive to this vital rate. In contrast, we expected that any costs of breeding with a new partner would be paid through skipping the subsequent breeding attempt. We found that unfamiliar pairs had lower subsequent breeding propensity than faithful partners. However, contrary to our expectations, individuals breeding with a new mate also suffered reduced survival. These results add to a small number of studies indicating that a positive relationship between mate retention and adult demographic rates may exist in a diverse array of avian species. Given these results, researchers should consider costs of mate change that extend beyond within‐season reproductive success to fully understand the potential adaptive basis for perennial social monogamy. We caution that if mate retention enhances survival prospects, improvements in annual reproductive success with pair‐bond length could be a secondary factor favouring perennial social monogamy, particularly in species with slower life‐history strategies. Furthermore, some cases where annual reproductive success does not improve with pair‐bond duration, yet multi‐year pair bonds are common, could be explained by benefits afforded by mate fidelity to adult vital rates.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗
USGS2011

Threshold responses of songbirds to long-term timber management on an active industrial forest

Forest managers often seek to balance economic benefits from timber harvesting with maintenance of habitat for wildlife, ecosystem function, and human uses. Most research on the relationship between avian abundance and active timber management has been short-term, lasting one to two years, creating the need to investigate long-term avian responses and to identify harvest thresholds when a small change in habitat results in a disproportionate response in relative abundance and nest success. Our objectives were to identify trends in relative abundance and nest success and to identify landscape-scale disturbance thresholds for avian species and habitat guilds in response to a variety of harvest treatments (clear-cuts, heavy and light partial harvests) over 14 years. We conducted point counts and monitored nests at an industrial forest in the central Appalachians of West Virginia during 1996–1998, 2001–2003, and 2007–2009. Early successional species increased in relative abundance across all three time periods, whereas interior-edge and forest-interior guilds peaked in relative abundance mid-study after which the forest-interior guild declined. Of 41 species with >10 detections, four (10%) declined significantly, 13 (32%) increased significantly (only three species among all periods), and 9 (22%) peaked in abundance mid-study (over the entire study period, four species had no significant change in abundance, four declined, and one increased). Based on piecewise linear models, forest-interior and interior-edge guilds’ relative abundance harvest thresholds were 28% total harvests (all harvests combined), 10% clear-cut harvests, and 18% light partial harvests, after which abundances declined. Harvest thresholds for the early successional guild were 42% total harvests, 11% clear-cut harvest, and 10% light partial harvests, and relative abundances increased after surpassing thresholds albeit at a reduced rate of increase after the clear-cut threshold. Threshold confidence intervals for individual species overlapped their guild threshold intervals 91% of the time. Even though relative abundance of most species (80%) did not decline as the area affected by timber management increased, implementing management at or below our approximate forest-interior and interior-edge harvest thresholds would reduce the number of declining species by half, maintain higher relative abundances of four species with a net decline in abundance but that peaked in abundance mid-study, and maintain higher relative abundances of ten additional species. In contrast, this management strategy also would prevent the increase in relative abundance of seven species and limit the increase in abundance of three species that increased throughout the study.

West Virginia↗
USGS2015

Ecology and conservation of North American sea ducks

The past decade has seen a huge increase in the interest and attention directed toward sea ducks, the Mergini tribe. This has been inspired, in large part, by the conservation concerns associated with numerical declines in several sea duck species and populations, as well as a growing appreciation for their interesting ecological attributes. Reflecting the considerable research recently conducted on this tribe, Ecology and Conservation of North American Sea Ducks examines the 15 extant species of sea ducks from North America. Chapters are organized conceptually to focus on, compare, and contrast the ecological attributes of the tribe. Experts provide in-depth treatments of a range of topics, including: Population dynamics and genetics Infectious diseases and parasites Breeding costs and cross-seasonal affects Contaminant burdens Foraging behavior and energetics Migration strategies, molt ecology, and habitat affinities and dynamics Breeding systems and reproductive behavior Harvest history The book presents a comprehensive synthesis of sea duck ecology, documents factors that have caused population declines of some species, and provides managers with measures to enhance recovery of depressed populations of sea ducks in North America. Capturing the current state of knowledge of this unique tribe, it provides a benchmark for where we are in conservation efforts and suggests future directions for researchers, managers, students, conservationists, and avian enthusiasts.

Book↗
USGS2005

Avian cholera in waterfowl: the role of lesser snow and Ross's geese as carriers of avian cholera in the Playa Lakes region

We collected samples from apparently healthy geese in the Playa Lakes Region (USA) during the winters of 2000a??01 and 2001a??02 to determine whether carriers of Pasteurella multocida, the bacterium that causes avian cholera, were present in wild populations. With the use of methods developed in laboratory challenge trials (Samuel et al., 2003a) and a serotype-specific polymerase chain reaction method for identification of P. multocida serotype 1, we found that a small proportion of 322 wild birds (<5%) were carriers of pathogenic P. multocida. On the basis of serology, an additional group of these birds (<10%) were survivors of recent avian cholera infection. Our results confirm the hypothesis that wild waterfowl are carriers of avian cholera and add support for the hypothesis that wild birds are a reservoir for this disease. In concert with other research, this work indicates that enzootic infection with avian cholera occurs in lesser snow goose (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) populations throughout their annual cycle. Although fewer Rossa??s geese (Chen rossii) were sampled, we also found these birds were carriers of P. multocida. Even in the absence of disease outbreaks, serologic evidence indicates that chronic disease transmission and recent infection are apparently occurring year-round in these highly gregarious birds and that a small portion of these populations are potential carriers with active infection.

Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas↗
USGS2003

Science for avian conservation: Priorities for the new millennium

Over the past decade, bird conservation activities have become the preeminent natural resource conservation effort in North America. Maturation of the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP), establishment of Partners in Flight (PIF), and creation of comprehensive colonial waterbird and shorebird conservation plans have stimulated unprecedented interest in, and funding for, bird conservation in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and other countries in the western hemisphere. Key to that success in the United States has been active collaboration among federal, state and local governments, conservation organizations, academia, and industry. The U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI), which has primary statutory responsibility for migratory bird conservation and management, has been a key partner. Despite the great strides that have been made in bird conservation science, historical approaches to research and monitoring have often failed to provide sufficient information and understanding to effectively manage bird populations at large spatial scales. That shortcoming, and the lack of an integrated strategy and comprehensive set of research priorities, is more evident in light of the goals established by the North American Bird Conservation Initiative (NABCI). The NABCI is a trinational, coalition-driven effort to provide an organizational umbrella for existing conservation initiatives. The expanded focus of NABCI and individual bird conservation initiatives is to work together in an integrated, holistic fashion to keep common birds common and to increase populations of declining, threatened, and endangered species. To assist bird conservation initiatives in defining goals and developing new approaches to effective research, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the research agency of DOI, convened a workshop, “Science for Avian Conservation: Understanding, Modeling, and Applying Ecological Relationships,” on 31 October–2 November 2000, which brought together 51 scientists from USGS, as well as scientists and conservationists from other agencies and organizations actively participating in NABCI. As the lead federal agency involved in bird conservation research, USGS has a clear legislative mandate to provide scientific information upon which future management plans and actions will be built. This article summarizes key issues and recommendations that arose from that workshop. The principal goal of the workshop was to guide USGS in defining its role, assessing capabilities, and directing future agency planning in support of bird conservation. A major component was to identify key areas of research needed in this new era of bird conservation science. Although tailored to the mission of USGS, workshop recommendations visualize a bold direction for future avian conservation science in which research and monitoring work in tandem with management to increase our understanding of avian populations and the processes that affect them. The USGS is a science agency whose role is to provide objective scientific information to management agencies and therefore is not directly involved in high-level resource policy-making or on-the-ground management decision making. Nevertheless, it is important to note that effective policy decision making must integrate the best available science with political and economic realities to achieve successful avian conservation—an important subject acknowledged in the workshop, but largely beyond its scope of discussion. Williams (2003) questions regarding how scientific information can be effectively communicated to decision makers and incorporated into natural resource policy. Without an aggressive vision and the willingness of researchers, managers, and policy makers to implement it, conservation of North American birds is likely to proceed without the full benefit of scientific investigation. These recommendations represent the principal conclusions drawn by workshop participants and do not necessarily reflect official USGS policy.

The Auk↗
USGS1976

Duck plague virus replication in Muscovy duck fibroblast cells

Duck embryo fibroblast cell cultures from seven species of ducks were compared for virus yield, plaque quality, and sensitivity to infection by the duck plague herpesvirus (duck virus enteritis). Muscovy duck and wood duck cells gave the best results for virus yield and plaque quality, but muscovies were considered superior because they are more available than wood ducks. Pintails and lesser scaup gave the poorest results, and pekin duck, black duck, and redhead duck were intermediate. A growth curve for the virus, determined in muscovy cells, had a latent period of six hours and a maximum new virus titer reached at 36 hours. Because of their superior plaque production and ability to replicate the virus, muscovy embryo fibroblasts (MCE) are recommended for diagnostic and research work.

Avian Diseases↗
USGS2008

Rethinking avian response to Tamarix on the lower Colorado River: A threshold hypothesis

Many of the world's large river systems have been greatly altered in the past century due to river regulation, agriculture, and invasion of introduced Tamarix spp. (saltcedar, tamarisk). These riverine ecosystems are known to provide important habitat for avian communities, but information on responses of birds to differing levels of Tamarix is not known. Past research on birds along the Colorado River has shown that avian abundance in general is greater in native than in non-native habitat. In this article, we address habitat restoration on the lower Colorado River by comparing abundance and diversity of avian communities at a matrix of different amounts of native and non-native habitats at National Wildlife Refuges in Arizona. Two major patterns emerged from this study: (1) Not all bird species responded to Tamarix in a similar fashion, and for many bird species, abundance was highest at intermediate Tamarix levels (40-60%), suggesting a response threshold. (2) In Tamarix-dominated habitats, the greatest increase in bird abundance occurred when small amounts of native vegetation were present as a component of that habitat. In fact, Tamarix was the best vegetation predictor of avian abundance when compared to vegetation density and canopy cover. Our results suggest that to positively benefit avian abundance and diversity, one cost-effective way to rehabilitate larger monoculture Tamarix stands would be to add relatively low levels of native vegetation (???20-40%) within homogenous Tamarix habitat. In addition, this could be much more cost effective and feasible than attempting to replace all Tamarix with native vegetation. ?? 2008 Society for Ecological Restoration International.

Restoration Ecology↗
USGS1979

Human related mortality of birds in the United States

Modern man serves as both a direct and an indirect cause of the death of birds. In the early 1970's, human activity was responsible for the death of approximately 196 million birds per year, or about 1.9% of the wild birds of the continental United States that died each year. Hunting was the largest direct mortality factor and accounted for about 61% of human related bird deaths. Control or prevention of avian depredations took about 1% of the total, and all research and propagation about 0.5%. Collision with man-made objects was the greatest indirect human cause of avian deaths. accounting for about 32% of the human related deaths. Pollution and poisoning caused the death of about 2% of the total. A relatively few species account for most of this mortality but continue to maintain large, harvestable populations, suggesting that the numbers of most bird species are essentially unaffected by the human activities discussed. Other activities of man that do not necessarily result in the death of birds but rather reduce reproductive potential are more likely to have long-term effects on avian populations.

Special Scientific Report - Wildlife↗
USGS2025

Density dependence and weather drive dabbling duck spatiotemporal distributions and intercontinental migration

Understanding migratory waterfowl spatiotemporal distributions is important because, in addition to their economic and cultural value, wild waterfowl can be infectious reservoirs of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV). Waterfowl migration has been implicated in regional and intercontinental HPAIV dispersal, and predictive capabilities of where and when HPAIV may be introduced to susceptible spillover hosts would facilitate biosecurity and mitigation efforts. To develop forecasts for HPAIV dispersal, an improved understanding of how individual birds interact with their environment and move on a landscape scale is required. Using an agent-based modeling approach, we integrated individual-scale energetics, species-specific morphology and behavior, and landscape-scale weather and habitat data in a mechanistic stochastic framework to simulate Mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) and Northern Pintail ( Anas acuta ) annual migration across the Northern Hemisphere. Our model recreated biologically realistic migratory patterns using a first principles approach to waterfowl ecology, behavior, and physiology. Conducting a limited structural sensitivity analysis comparing reduced models to eBird Status and Trends in reference to the full model, we identified density dependence as the main factor influencing spring migration and breeding distributions, and wind as the main factor influencing fall migration and overwintering distributions. We show evidence of weather patterns in Northeast Asia causing significant intercontinental pintail migration to North America. By linking individual energetics to landscape-scale processes, we identify key drivers of waterfowl migration while developing a predictive model responsive to daily weather patterns. This model paves the way for future waterfowl migration research predicting HPAIV transmission, climate change impacts, and oil spill effects.

Avian Research↗