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Natural Hazards Science at the U.S. Geological Survey

The mission of the USGS in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. The USGS conducts hazard research and works closely with stakeholders and cooperators to inform a broad range of planning and response activities at individual, local, State, national, and international levels. It has critical statutory and nonstatutory roles regarding floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, coastal erosion, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and magnetic storms. USGS science can help to understand and reduce risks from natural hazards by providing the information that decisionmakers need to determine which risk management activities are worth­while.

Fact Sheet

Social and Economic Analysis Branch: integrating policy, social, economic, and natural science

The Fort Collins Science Center's Social and Economic Analysis Branch provides unique capabilities in the U.S. Geological Survey by leading projects that integrate social, behavioral, economic, and natural science in the context of human–natural resource interactions. Our research provides scientific understanding and support for the management and conservation of our natural resources in support of multiple agency missions. We focus on meeting the scientific needs of the Department of the Interior natural resource management bureaus in addition to fostering partnerships with other Federal and State managers to protect, restore, and enhance our environment. The Social and Economic Analysis Branch has an interdisciplinary group of scientists whose primary functions are to conduct both theoretical and applied social science research, provide technical assistance, and offer training to support the development of skills in natural resource management activities. Management and research issues associated with human-resource interactions typically occur in a unique context and require knowledge of both natural and social sciences, along with the skill to integrate multiple science disciplines. In response to these challenging contexts, Social and Economic Analysis Branch researchers apply a wide variety of social science concepts and methods which complement our rangeland/agricultural, wildlife, ecology, and biology capabilities. The goal of the Social and Economic Analysis Branch's research is to enhance natural-resource management, agency functions, policies, and decisionmaking.

Fact Sheet

Science strategy for Cotoni-Coast Dairies, an onshore unit of the California Coastal National Monument

This science strategy describes the scientific mission of the unit, science previously conducted on or near the unit, and the partners who have given considerable effort to produce this science. Further, it identifies priority science needs, outlines the unit’s plan to meet those science needs in coordination with partners, shares scientific protocols for conducting new research, and identifies systems of communication to help ensure science information generated from this research is shared throughout BLM, with partners, and with the public. These components of the science strategy are intended to help achieve the fundamental goals of the effort: to support and expand partnerships while identifying priority science information needs of unit staff and partners and clearly outlining pathways for conducting, communicating, and applying that science.

California

U.S. Geological Survey natural hazards science strategy— Promoting the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation

Executive Summary The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. USGS scientific research—founded on detailed observations and improved understanding of the responsible physical processes—can help to understand and reduce natural hazard risks and to make and effectively communicate reliable statements about hazard characteristics, such as frequency, magnitude, extent, onset, consequences, and where possible, the time of future events. To accomplish its broad hazard mission, the USGS maintains an expert workforce of scientists and technicians in the earth sciences, hydrology, biology, geography, social and behavioral sciences, and other fields, and engages cooperatively with numerous agencies, research institutions, and organizations in the public and private sectors, across the Nation and around the world. The scientific expertise required to accomplish the USGS mission in natural hazards includes a wide range of disciplines that this report refers to, in aggregate, as hazard science. In October 2010, the Natural Hazards Science Strategy Planning Team (H–SSPT) was charged with developing a long-term (10-year) Science Strategy for the USGS mission in natural hazards. This report fulfills that charge, with a document hereinafter referred to as the Strategy, to provide scientific observations, analyses, and research that are critical for the Nation to become more resilient to natural hazards. Science provides the information that decisionmakers need to determine whether risk management activities are worthwhile. Moreover, as the agency with the perspective of geologic time, the USGS is uniquely positioned to extend the collective experience of society to prepare for events outside current memory. The USGS has critical statutory and nonstatutory roles regarding floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, coastal erosion, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and magnetic storms—the hazards considered in this plan. There are numerous other hazards of societal importance that are considered either only peripherally or not at all in this Strategy because they are either in another of the USGS strategic science plans (such as drought) or not in the overall mission of the USGS (such as tornados).

Circular

North Central Climate Science Center--science agenda 2012-2017

The information presented here provides the five-year science agenda for the North Central Climate Science Center. It is meant to be a high-level guide that describes the spatial context of the center, the primary partners and stakeholders, and the strategic framework the center will use in applying climate science to inform management.

Open-File Report

Development of a new open-source tool to map burned area and burn severity

Accurate and complete geospatial fire occurrence records are important in determining postfire effects, emissions, hazards, and fuel loading inventories. Currently, the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) project maps the fire perimeter and burn severity of all large fires on public lands. Although the MTBS project maps a large proportion of the fire acreage, it maps a smaller proportion of the actual number of fires in the United States, thereby creating a data gap. To fill this data gap, fire scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science Center (EROS; Sioux Falls, South Dakota) proposed creating an open-source Fire Mapping Tool (FMT; available at https://mtbs.gov/qgis-fire-mapping-tool) as part of a two-phase National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Applied Fire Science Program grant. Phase II developed the FMT to map burn perimeters and severity not included in the MTBS database. This paper will focus on Phase II and will explain the algorithms that enhance the FMT’s functionality, demonstrate fire mapping procedures, and provide an example comparison between MTBS analyst fire products and those mapped using the FMT. The overall goal in the production of the FMT was to provide a freely available tool that can be used to map fires anywhere in the world.

Washington

Communicating hazards—A social science review to meet U.S. Geological Survey needs

This report is for U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)—and any other—hazard scientists who want to improve the understanding and use of their scientific information, particularly by non-experts. In order for people to use science, they need to understand it. The highly technical, specialized nature of scientific information makes that difficult, particularly when few scientists are trained to communicate with people outside their fields. These issues are of special importance to the USGS because it has many users who are not scientists and because it develops and applies hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of our Nation. In 2010, the Science Application for Risk Reduction group at the USGS discovered the Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED) guide, “The Psychology of Climate Change Communication.” Ever since, a growing number of USGS staff who need to communicate about hazards have used that guide and have asked CRED for a companion report dedicated to hazard communication to harness knowledge from more than 50 years of social science research. In 2016, the USGS and CRED launched a collaboration to develop that companion report. Ultimately, a CRED hazard communication guide would be a Columbia University publication with a wide focus and would include many hazards that are outside the USGS purview. This report is a first step and concentrates strictly on hazard communication needs at the USGS. To identify those needs and tailor this effort to USGS hazard communication priorities, this collaboration began with telephone interviews and an online survey of USGS staff. This report is the result; it summarizes social science research and experience in the areas of hazard communication that USGS participants deemed most important to include.

Circular

Nature . . . an environmental yardstick

To one who has spent his professional career in geologic science, conservation always has had special meaning. In the measurements so necessary to his work the geologist develops an integrity in the use of numbers and in the qualifications attending the validity of numbers. Scientific analysis of geologic events and sequence develops a keen sense of what is coincidental, correlative, and consequential. The geologist applies his science in evaluating hazards to man as natural catastrophes and/or benefits to man such as earth materials that form the resource base of his society. But more than these the geologist has acquired a deep appreciation for the planet as a whole, its inner structure, its landscape, and the living things that abound.

Information and Technology Report

Tools for discovering and accessing Great Lakes scientific data

The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) is a multidisciplinary and interagency effort focused on the protection and restoration of the Great Lakes (GL) using the best available science and applying lessons learned from previous studies. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) contributes to the GLRI effort by providing resource managers with information and tools needed to meet restoration goals. This includes contributing scientific expertise and delivering findings to the GL community through meaningful information products. One of the strengths of the GLRI is its interagency approach; however, this can create challenges when coordinating the large number of restoration activities being performed by GL governments, tribes, academics, nonprofits, and industry. There is a vast array of data being produced by both the USGS and its partners, and it is crucial that scientists, managers, policymakers, and the public can easily locate the biological, geological, geospatial, and water-resources data being generated. The USGS strives to develop data products that are easy to find, easy to understand, and easy to use through Web-accessible tools that allow users to learn about the breadth and scope of GLRI activities being undertaken by the USGS and its partners. By creating tools that enable data to be shared and reused more easily, the USGS can encourage collaboration and assist the GL community in finding, interpreting, and understanding the information created during GLRI science activities.

Great Lakes

Linking evolutionary potential to extinction risk: Applications and future directions

Extinction-risk assessments play a major role in prioritizing conservation action at national and international levels. However, quantifying extinction risk is challenging, especially when including the full suite of adaptive responses to environmental change. In particular, evolutionary potential (EP), the capacity to evolve genetically based changes that increase fitness under changing conditions, has proven difficult to evaluate, limiting its inclusion in risk assessments. Theory, experiments, simulations, and field studies all highlight the importance of EP in characterizing and mitigating extinction risk. Disregarding EP can therefore result in ineffective allocation of resources and inadequate recovery planning. Fortunately, proxies for EP can be estimated from environmental, phenotypic, and genetic data. Some proxies can be incorporated into quantitative extinction-risk assessments, whereas others better inform basic conservation actions that maximize resilience to future change. Integration of EP into conservation decision-making is challenging but essential and remains an important area for innovation in applied conservation science.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Towards determining spatial methane distribution on Arctic permafrost bluffs with an unmanned aerial system

Arctic permafrost stores vast amounts of methane (CH 4 ) in subsurface reservoirs. Thawing permafrost creates areas for this potent greenhouse gas to be released to the atmosphere. Identifying ‘hot spots’ of methane flux on a local scale has been limited by the spatial scales of traditional ground-based or satellite-based methane-sampling methods. Here we present a reliable and an easily replicable design using only off-the-shelf, cost-effective methane sensor components and an Unmanned Aerial System (UAS). Our results demonstrate the high efficiency of the design and the advantages of this methodology for environmental methane studies that are subjected to the high spatial variability of methane levels. On Barter Island, NE Alaska, we noted spikes in CH 4 concentrations coincident with topographic features or anomalies. Such spikes may be attributed to enhanced land/air transfer and may reveal zones of high methane production and/or minimal oxidation in areas of thermoerosional gullies along thawing coastal zones. Thermoerosional gullies represent hotspots that release significantly higher levels of methane than the surrounding areas, thus suggesting that point sampling is inadequate in characterizing methane releases and that increasing rates of permafrost thaw may result in increasing point sources of high CH 4 emissions.

SN Applied Sciences

A multi-model approach toward understanding iron fouling at rock-fill drainage sites along roadways in New Hampshire, USA

Factors affecting iron fouling in wet areas adjacent to roadways were investigated by collecting field rock cut and aqueous physicochemical data; developing exploratory predictive models; and developing geochemical models. Basic data included the identification of iron fouling from aerial imagery and field visits at 374 New Hampshire rock cut locations, and their associated rock-fill sites. Based on field water quality measurements from wet areas at 36 of the rock-fill sites, the occurrence of iron fouling was associated with higher values of specific conductance, lower concentrations of dissolved oxygen and lower pH compared to areas without iron fouling. A statistical model, using boosted regression trees, was developed to predict the occurrence of iron fouling in wet areas adjacent to roadways where rock-fill from nearby rock cuts was used in roadway construction. The model was used to develop a continuous iron fouling probability map for the state of New Hampshire that can be used to better understand the occurrence of iron fouling. Geochemical models illustrate how iron fouling of waters increases along roadways built with fill from sulfidic rock cuts as a result of acid generation from pyrite dissolution and ferrous iron (Fe 2+ ) oxidation and increases in areas with greater specific conductance from deicing runoff caused by cation exchange. More iron is precipitated as goethite in simulations that include pyrite, and in simulations with deicing salts added, indicating that rock-fill sites with rocks that contain pyrite and water with greater salt content could have enhanced iron fouling.

New Hampshire

Pesticide contamination detected across five wildlife refuges in the Sacramento Valley of California

An important goal for the applied ecological sciences is to understand the extent to which the biodiversity on conserved or managed lands is exposed to anthropogenic stressors. Among the various categories of conserved lands in the United States, the National Wildlife Refuge System is focused on the protection and management of native wildlife and plant populations. Refuge lands can be associated with wetlands and, especially in California, tend to be near areas of intense human use, including agriculture. The proximity of refuges to cultivated lands results in potential exposure to pesticide drift, which increases the possibility of non-target effects on plants and wildlife. We used a passive sampler approach to quantify aerial pesticide deposition during 28 days in spring of 2023, across five refuges in the Sacramento Valley of California. Pesticides were detected across all refuges and plots within the study area, with 36 individual compounds identified, including insecticides, herbicides, and fungicides, from 176 silicone bands from 49 plots. Distance to agriculture was not an important predictor in our models for most indices of contamination. However, our models revealed that the nearest crop type was an important mediator of the importance of distance to agriculture, as fungicide contamination decreased with distance to agriculture only when orchards were the nearest crop type. The overall lack of distance effects suggests that the interior of refuges in the study area do not necessarily provide more protection from pesticides than refuge edges, although larger refuges could offer more protection. We currently lack information on how the level of contamination found herein is biologically relevant to wildlife, and ongoing monitoring efforts have found productive communities of insects in the study area. The results of this study provide a foundation for future investigations on refuges to analyze impacts of specific pesticide compounds on plants and wildlife.

California

Aquatic habitat measurement and valuation: imputing social benefits to instream flow levels

Instream flow conflicts have been analysed from the perspectives offered by policy oriented applied (physical) science, theories of conflict resolution and negotiation strategy, and psychological analyses of the behavior patterns of the bargaining parties. Economics also offers some useful insights in analysing conflict resolution within the context of these water allocation problems. We attempt to analyse the economics of the bargaining process in conjunction with a discussion of the water allocation process. In particular, we examine in detail the relation between certain habitat estimation techniques, and the socially optimal allocation of non-market resources. The results developed here describe the welfare implications implicit in the contemporary general equilibrium analysis of a competitive market economy. We also review certain currently available techniques for assigning dollar values to the social benefits of instream flow. The limitations of non-market valuation techniques with respect to estimating the benefits provided by instream flows and the aquatic habitat contingent on these flows should not deter resource managers from using economic analysis as a basic tool for settling instream flow conflicts.

Journal of Environmental Management

Beyond exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity: A response based ecological framework to assess species climate change vulnerability

As the impacts of global climate change on species are increasingly evident, there is a clear need to adapt conservation efforts worldwide. Species vulnerability assessments (VAs) are increasingly used to summarize all relevant information to determine a species’ potential vulnerability to climate change and are frequently the first step in informing climate adaptation efforts. VAs commonly integrate multiple sources of information by utilizing a framework that distinguishes factors relevant to species exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. However, this framework was originally developed for human systems, and its use to evaluate species vulnerability has serious practical and theoretical limitations. By instead defining vulnerability as the degree to which a species is unable to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., toleration of projected changes, migration to new climate-compatible areas, enduring in microrefugia, and evolutionary adaptation), we can bring VAs into the realm of ecological science without applying borrowed abstract concepts that have consistently challenged species-centric research and management. This response-based framework to assess species vulnerability to climate change allows better integration of relevant ecological data and past research, yielding results with much clearer implications for conservation and research prioritization.

Climate Change Responses

Performance metrics for the assessment of satellite data products: An ocean color case study

Performance assessment of ocean color satellite data has generally relied on statistical metrics chosen for their common usage and the rationale for selecting certain metrics is infrequently explained. Commonly reported statistics based on mean squared errors, such as the coefficient of determination (r 2 ), root mean square error, and regression slopes, are most appropriate for Gaussian distributions without outliers and, therefore, are often not ideal for ocean color algorithm performance assessment, which is often limited by sample availability. In contrast, metrics based on simple deviations, such as bias and mean absolute error, as well as pair-wise comparisons, often provide more robust and straightforward quantities for evaluating ocean color algorithms with non-Gaussian distributions and outliers. This study uses a SeaWiFS chlorophyll-a validation data set to demonstrate a framework for satellite data product assessment and recommends a multi-metric and user-dependent approach that can be applied within science, modeling, and resource management communities.

Optics Express

Proceedings of the 4th New World Luminescence Dating and Dosimetry Workshop, Denver, Colorado, May 31 June 2, 2006

Introduction: Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) is one of a class of measurements known as stimulated phenomena. Such phenomena may be stimulated thermally or optically and the reader is referred to works by Aitken (1998) and Botter-Jensen and others (2003) for more detail. In recent years OSL has become a popular procedure for the determination of environmental radiation doses absorbed by archeological and geological materials in an attempt to date these materials. The first OSL measurements on quartz and feldspar were made using an argon ion-laser (Huntley et al., 1985). However, the development of cheaper stimulation systems based first on filtered lamps and then on light- emitting diodes (LEDs) (Spooner, et al., 1990; Botter-Jensen, and others, 1999) has led to a massive expansion in OSL dating applications. The abstracts in this volume represent presentations from a workshop held in May-June 2006, at the Denver Federal Center, Denver, Colorado, in which OSL methodologies and applications were summarized and integrated to provide a current synthesis of the OSL science being applied throughout North America. The workshop, sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey Crustal Imaging and Characterization Team and North Dakota State University, was open to all scientists interested in OSL dating techniques and radiation dosimetry. Participants included thirty-six research scientists and students in geology, archaeology, and physics from the U.S. Geological Survey, Los Alamos National Labs, Kentucky Geological Survey, eight universities in the United States, one university in Canada, one university in India, and Riso National Labs of Denmark. The workshop included two keynote speakers: Dr. Ashok Singhvi (Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad, India) spoke on 'Some Unexplored Methodological Aspects and Some New Applications of Luminescence Dating,' while Dr. Jim Feathers (University of Seattle, WA) spoke on OSL Dating of Sediments From Paleoindian Sites in Brazil. The workshop encouraged everyone to interact more to develop a broader perspective on the types of research and the problems encountered when reporting OSL ages. This meeting follows the first North American Luminescence Dating Workshop held in Tulsa, OK, by Oklahoma State University (2001), in Albuquerque, NM, by Los Alamos National Labs (2002), and in Halifax, Nova Scotia, by Dalhousie University (2004, with a name change to New World Luminescence Dating Workshop). These workshops were interspersed with the international meetings on luminescence that were held in Reno, NV, (2002), and Cologne, Germany; (2005).

Open-File Report

Fort Collins Science Center: science accomplishments for fiscal years 2012 and 2013

The Fort Collins Science Center (FORT) is a multi-disciplinary research and development center of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) located in Fort Collins, Colorado. Organizationally, FORT is within the USGS Southwest Region, although our work extends across the Nation and into several other countries. FORT research focuses on needs of the land- and water-management bureaus within the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI), other Federal agencies, and those of State and non-government organizations. As a Science Center, we emphasize a multi-disciplinary science approach to provide information for resource-management decisionmaking. FORT’s vision is to maintain and continuously improve the integrated, collaborative, world-class research needed to inform effective, science-based land and resource management. Our science and technological development activities and unique capabilities support all USGS scientific Mission Areas and contribute to successful, collaborative science efforts across the USGS and DOI. We organized our report into an Executive Summary, a cross-reference table, and an appendix. The executive summary provides brief highlights of some key FORT accomplishments for each Mission Area. The table cross-references all major FY2012 and FY2013 science accomplishments with the various Mission Areas that each supports. The one-page accomplishment descriptions in the appendix are organized by USGS Mission Area and describe the many and diverse ways in which our science is applied to resource issues. As in prior years, lists of all FY2012 and FY2013 publications and other product types also are appended.

Open-File Report