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USGS2022

An integrated approach for physical, economic, and demographic evaluation of coastal flood hazard adaptation in Santa Monica Bay, California

The increased risk of coastal flooding associated with climate-change driven sea level rise threatens to displace communities and cause substantial damage to infrastructure. Site-specific adaptation planning is necessary to mitigate the negative impacts of flooding on coastal residents and the built environment. Cost-benefit analyses used to evaluate coastal adaption strategies have traditionally focused on economic considerations, often overlooking potential demographic impacts that can directly influence vulnerability in coastal communities. Here, we present a transferable framework that couples hydrodynamic modeling of flooding driven by sea level rise and storm scenarios with site-specific building stock and census block-level demographic data. We assess the efficacy of multiple coastal adaptation strategies at reducing flooding, economic damages, and impacts to the local population. We apply this framework to evaluate a range of engineered, nature-based, and hybrid adaptation strategies for a portion of Santa Monica Bay, California. Overall, we find that dual approaches that provide protection along beaches using dunes or seawalls and along inlets using sluice gates perform best at reducing or eliminating flooding, damages, and population impacts. Adaptation strategies that include a sluice gate and partial or no protection along the beach are effective at reducing flooding around inlets but can exacerbate flooding elsewhere, leading to unintended impacts on residents. Our results also indicate trade-offs between economic and social risk-reduction priorities. The proposed framework allows for a comprehensive evaluation of coastal protection strategies across multiple objectives. Understanding how coastal adaptation strategies affect hydrodynamic, economic, and social factors at a local scale can enable more effective and equitable planning approaches.

California↗

USGS1986

Quantitative estimation of undiscovered mineral resources: A case study of US Forest Service Wilderness tracts in the Pacific Mountain system

The need by land managers and planners for more quantitative measures of mineral values has prompted scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey to test a probabilistic method of mineral resource assessment on a portion of the wilderness lands that have been studied by the Survey during the past 20 years. A quantitative estimate of undiscovered mineral resources is made by linking the techniques of subjective estimation, geologic mineral deposit models, and Monte Carlo simulation. The study, which uses grade-tonnage and occurrence models for 21 geologic deposit types, considers 91 U.S. Forest Service wilderness tracts in California, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington. Estimates of the amounts of the 11 metals contained in undiscovered mineral deposits of the types studied range from negligible to several years of U.S. consumption. Although these estimates are limited to metals contained in undiscovered deposits of a small number of metallic mineral deposit types, the assessment procedure can be expanded by the use of additional deposit models and by using information about identified mineral resources. This will allow models of economic processes such as exploration, development, and production to be applied.

Economic Geology↗

USGS2020

Quantifying harvestable fish and crustacean production and associated economic values provided by oyster reefs

Quantifying ecosystem services can provide information to justify conservation and restoration decisions so as to allocate limited resources effectively. Consequently, decision makers and public typically ask for simple and understandable information with confidence regarding the availability of the services and the probable economic value. Here, we compiled published information on density enhancement and species life-history information to quantify fish and crustacean production and its uncertainty associated with the current extent of oyster ( Crassostrea virginica ) reefs in Mobile Bay, Alabama. We applied Alabama fishing size limits as a cutoff to exclude the production of non-harvestable size individuals. Fishery landing (2005–2015) and Willingness-To-Pay information were used to quantify the economic benefit of the harvestable production enhancement (commercial and recreational production). Sixteen species were found to be production-enhanced in the bay with a mean of 354 ± 182 g m −2 year −1 , of which 170 ± 112 g m −2 year −1 was economically quantifiable based on their harvestable production and landing information. The mean economic value was $509,000 year −1 in direct economic value for commercial fishers and $19.59 million year −1 estimated by the willingnesstopay value from recreational anglers. The results demonstrated a substantial positive economic benefit of ecosystem services from oyster reefs associated with fishery production in Mobile Bay, Alabama. The method could be applied elsewhere to estimate the economic return from the investment of conserving and restoring of similar structured habitats.

Alabama↗

USGS2024

Assessing and implementing the concept of Blue Economy in Laurentian Great Lakes fisheries: Lessons from coupled human and natural systems

Inland fisheries often receive little to no attention in global discussions about sustainable development. The consequences of overlooking inland fisheries in sustainability dialogues are increasingly problematic as fisheries stressors (e.g., overharvest, species invasion, climate change, habitat modification) intensify. Elevating the global profile of inland fisheries requires an approach for quantifying and clearly conveying the ecological, economic, and societal values of these systems. One such approach involves the Blue Economy, a multifaceted concept initially used to describe the intersection of marine conservation and sustainable use of marine resources for economic growth. Although conceptually powerful, the Blue Economy has rarely been applied to inland waters and fisheries. To address this knowledge gap, we conceptualized Laurentian Great Lakes fisheries from a Blue Economy perspective. In particular, we evaluated the utility of the coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) framework for characterizing the ecological, economic, and societal values of Laurentian Great Lakes fisheries and associated contributions to the Blue Economy (e.g., human livelihoods, food security, recreation, conservation, economic prosperity). There are numerous opportunities to leverage CHANS methods (e.g., metacoupling, telecoupling) and associated mathematical models to advance fisheries science, inform fisheries management, and ultimately move toward a Blue Economy in the Laurentian Great Lakes. To that end, we demonstrated applications of CHANS methods, discussed strategies for communicating with stakeholders, and provided insights for navigating challenges to developing a Blue Economy in the Laurentian Great Lakes—a model that could be used in the African Great Lakes and other large ecosystems in the world.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗

USGS2020

Economic valuation of health benefits from using geologic data to communicate radon risk potential

Background: Radon exposure is the second leading cause of lung cancer worldwide and represents a major health concern within and outside the United States. Mitigating exposure to radon is especially critical in places with high rates of tobacco smoking (e.g., Kentucky, USA), as radon-induced lung cancer is markedly greater among people exposed to tobacco smoke. Despite homes being a common source of radon exposure, convincing homeowners to test and mitigate for radon remains a challenge. A new communication strategy to increase radon testing among Kentucky homeowners utilizes fine-scale geologic map data to create detailed radon risk potential maps. We assessed the health benefits of this strategy via avoided lung cancer and associated premature mortality and quantified the economic value of these benefits to indicate the potential utility of using geologic map data in radon communication strategies. Methods: We estimated the change in radon testing among all 120 counties in Kentucky following a new communication strategy reliant on geologic maps. We approximated the resultant potential change in radon mitigation rates and subsequent expected lung cancer cases and mortality avoided among smokers and non-smokers exposed to ≥4 pCi/L of radon in the home. We then applied the value of a statistical life to derive the economic value of the expected avoided mortality. Results: The new communication strategy is estimated to help 75 Kentucky residents in one year avoid exposure to harmful radon levels via increased testing and mitigation rates. This equated to the potential avoidance of approximately one premature death due to lung cancer, with a net present value of \$3.4 to \$8.5 million (2016 USD). Conclusions: Our analysis illustrates the potential economic value of health benefits associated with geologic map data used as part of a communication strategy conveying radon risk to the public. Geologic map data are freely available in varying resolutions throughout the United States, suggesting Kentucky’s radon communication strategy using geologic maps can be employed in other states to educate the public about radon. As this is only a single application, in a single state, the economic and health benefits of geologic map data in educating the public about radon are likely to exceed our estimates.

Kentucky↗

USGS2019

Precision of VS30 values derived from noninvasive surface wave methods at 31 sites in California

We study the inter- and intra-method variability of VS30 results by inverting/forward-modeling individual dispersion data for 31 seismographic stations located in California where combinations of surface-wave methods were applied and the minimum recorded wavelength from each method satisfies the 30-meter depth criteria. These methods consist of noninvasive geophysical (active and passive surface-wave techniques) multi-station approaches, including the Multi-channel Analysis of Surface Waves (MASW; Rayleigh and Love waves), Spectral Analysis of Surface Waves (SASW), Microtremor Array [using Extended Spatial Autocorrelation (ESAC) processing methods], and Refraction Microtremor (ReMi) methods. Depending on the apparent geologic or seismic complexity of the site, field crews applied one or a combination of these methods whenever economically feasible to estimate the one-dimensional shear-wave velocity (VS) profile and calculate VS30, the time-averaged VS to a depth of 30 m. For each of the 31 sites, we find both types of variability in VS30 estimates generally remain insignificant (arithmetic mean of 5 % difference). We also find similar results (3 %) when we evaluate individual-method based VS30 estimates against composite-method based estimates. We note that VS30 values vary insignificantly when using a combination of complementary methods, e.g., active MASW data combined with passive MAM data, and that the most reliable results are also based on close fitting of the theoretical dispersion data to the representative (experimental) dispersion data.

California↗

USGS2007

Potential for shoreline changes due to sea-level rise along the U.S. mid-Atlantic region

Sea-level rise over the next century is expected to contribute significantly to physical changes along open-ocean shorelines. Predicting the form and magnitude of coastal changes is important for understanding the impacts to humans and the environment. Presently, the ability to predict coastal changes is limited by the scientific understanding of the many variables and processes involved in coastal change, and the lack of consensus regarding the validity of existing conceptual, analytical, or numerical models. In order to assess potential future coastal changes in the mid-Atlantic U.S. for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), a workshop was convened by the U.S. Geological Survey. Assessments of future coastal change were made by a committee of coastal scientists with extensive professional experience in the mid-Atlantic region. Thirteen scientists convened for a two-day meeting to exchange information and develop a consensus opinion on potential future coastal changes for the mid-Atlantic coast in response to sea-level rise. Using criteria defined in past work, the mid-Atlantic coast was divided into four geomorphic compartments: spits, headlands, wave-dominated barriers, and mixed-energy barriers. A range of potential coastal responses was identified for each compartment based on four sea-level rise scenarios. The four scenarios were based on the assumptions that: a) the long-term sea-level rise rate observed over the 20th century would persist over the 21st century, b) the 20th century rate would increase by 2 mm/yr, c) the 20th century rate would increase by 7 mm/yr, or d) sea-level would rise by 2 m over the next few hundred years. Potential responses to these sea-level rise scenarios depend on the landforms that occur within a region and include increased likelihood for erosion and shoreline retreat for all coastal types, increased likelihood for erosion, overwash and inlet breaching for barrier islands, as well as the possibility of a threshold state (e.g., dramatic change in barrier evolution, such as segmentation or disintegration) for some barrier island systems. The likelihood of the potential coastal responses is expressed using standard terminology employed in climate change assessments (e.g., as used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and CCSP). This assessment was based on the coastal geomorphology in its present condition and does not consider any coastal protection that might be undertaken in the future. The committee recognized that a variety of erosion mitigation measures have been implemented along developed portions of the coast and these are very likely to be applied in the future. It was also acknowledged that economics, political will, and other factors can drive decisions to implement these measures, and that such decisions cannot be predicted with confidence. The results of this assessment are depicted graphically on maps of the study area.

Mid-Atlantic Coast↗

USGS2019

Resource Assessment Economic Filter (RAEF)—A graphical user interface supporting implementation of simple engineering mine cost analyses of quantitative mineral resource assessment simulations

Economic evaluations of undiscovered mineral resources provide important context in which to consider the results of quantitative mineral resource assessments. The U.S. Geological Survey economic analysis method uses a simple engineering cost model approach developed by the U.S. Bureau of Mines that applies mine and mill engineering cost equations to simulated undiscovered deposits. The important characteristics of these deposits are derived from Monte Carlo simulations that combine probabilistic estimates of undiscovered deposits that might occur in a study area and a grade-tonnage model defined for a specific deposit type. This report describes the Resource Assessment Economic Filter (RAEF), a graphical user interface (GUI) tool that applies a set of mine cost equations to the deposits under consideration. RAEF, which is written in the open-source statistical programming language R, is an easy-to-use tool to apply user-defined mine, mill, and study area parameters to simulated deposits. For a given deposit type, it estimates the undiscovered resources that might be economic to extract. In addition, RAEF provides a series of graphical, tabular, and statistical summaries that document the results of the economic filter analysis.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS1985

Lognormal field size distributions as a consequence of economic truncation

The assumption of lognormal (parent) field size distributions has for a long time been applied to resource appraisal and evaluation of exploration strategy by the petroleum industry. However, frequency distributions estimated with observed data and used to justify this hypotheses are conditional. Examination of various observed field size distributions across basins and over time shows that such distributions should be regarded as the end result of an economic filtering process. Commercial discoveries depend on oil and gas prices and field development costs. Some new fields are eliminated due to location, depths, or water depths. This filtering process is called economic truncation. Economic truncation may occur when predictions of a discovery process are passed through an economic appraisal model. We demonstrate that (1) economic resource appraisals, (2) forecasts of levels of petroleum industry activity, and (3) expected benefits of developing and implementing cost reducing technology are sensitive to assumptions made about the nature of that portion of (parent) field size distribution subject to economic truncation. ?? 1985 Plenum Publishing Corporation.

Journal of the International Association for Mathe↗

USGS2010

Fort Collins Science Center- Policy Analysis and Science Assistance Branch : Integrating social, behavioral, economic and biological sciences

The Fort Collins Science Center's Policy Analysis and Science Assistance (PASA) Branch is a team of approximately 22 scientists, technicians, and graduate student researchers. PASA provides unique capabilities in the U.S. Geological Survey by leading projects that integrate social, behavioral, economic, and biological analyses in the context of human-natural resource interactions. Resource planners, managers, and policymakers in the U.S. Departments of the Interior (DOI) and Agriculture (USDA), State and local agencies, as well as international agencies use information from PASA studies to make informed natural resource management and policy decisions. PASA scientists' primary functions are to conduct both theoretical and applied social science research, provide technical assistance, and offer training to advance performance in policy relevant research areas. Management and research issues associated with human-resource interactions typically occur in a unique context, involve difficult to access populations, require knowledge of both natural/biological science in addition to social science, and require the skill to integrate multiple science disciplines. In response to these difficult contexts, PASA researchers apply traditional and state-of-the-art social science methods drawing from the fields of sociology, demography, economics, political science, communications, social-psychology, and applied industrial organization psychology. Social science methods work in concert with our rangeland/agricultural management, wildlife, ecology, and biology capabilities. The goal of PASA's research is to enhance natural resource management, agency functions, policies, and decision-making. Our research is organized into four broad areas of study.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2010

Ants as a measure of effectiveness of habitat conservation planning in southern California

In the United States multispecies habitat conservation plans were meant to be the solution to conflicts between economic development and protection of biological diversity. Although now widely applied, questions exist concerning the scientific credibility of the conservation planning process and effectiveness of the plans. We used ants to assess performance of one of the first regional conservation plans developed in the United States, the Orange County Central‐Coastal Natural Community Conservation Plan (NCCP), in meeting its broader conservation objectives of biodiversity and ecosystem‐level protection. We collected pitfall data on ants for over 3 years on 172 sites established across a network of conservation lands in coastal southern California. Although recovered native ant diversity for the study area was high, site‐occupancy models indicated the invasive and ecologically disruptive Argentine ant ( Linepithema humile ) was present at 29% of sites, and sites located within 200 m of urban and agricultural areas were more likely to have been invaded. Within invaded sites, native ants were largely displaced, and their median species richness declined by more than 60% compared with uninvaded sites. At the time of planning, 24% of the 15,133‐ha reserve system established by Orange County NCCP fell within 200 m of an urban or agricultural edge. With complete build out of lands surrounding the reserve, the proportion of the reserve system vulnerable to invasion will grow to 44%. Our data indicate that simply protecting designated areas from development is not enough. If habitat conservation plans are to fulfill their conservation promise of ecosystem‐level protection, a more‐integrated and systematic approach to the process of habitat conservation planning is needed .

California↗

USGS2007

Proceedings for a workshop on deposit modeling, mineral resource assessment, and their role in sustainable development

The world's use of nonfuel mineral resources continues to increase to support a growing population and increasing standards of living. The ability to meet this increasing demand is affected especially by concerns about possible environmental degradation associated with minerals production and by competing land uses. What information does the world need to support global minerals development in a sustainable way? Informed planning and decisions concerning sustainability and future mineral resource supply require a long–term perspective and an integrated approach to resource, land use, economic, and environmental management worldwide. Such perspective and approach require unbiased information on the global distribution of identified and especially undiscovered resources, the economic and political factors influencing their development, and the potential environmental consequences of their exploitation. The U.S. Geological Survey and the former Deposit Modeling Program of the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS) of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) sponsored a workshop on "Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Their Role in Sustainable Development" at the 31st International Geological Congress (IGC) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on August 18–19, 2000. The purpose of the workshop was to review the state-of-the-art in mineral deposit modeling and resource assessment and to examine the role of global assessments of nonfuel mineral resources in sustainable development. The workshop addressed questions such as the following: Which of the available mineral deposit models and assessment methods are best suited for predicting the locations, deposit types, and amounts of undiscovered nonfuel mineral resources remaining in the world? What is the availability of global geologic, mineral deposit, and mineral exploration information? How can mineral resource assessments be used to address economic and environmental issues? Presentations included overviews of assessment methods applied in previous national and other small-scale assessments of large regions and of the resulting assessment products and their uses. Twenty-seven people from Canada, China, Finland, Germany, Japan, Peru, Slovenia, South Africa, United States, and Venezuela participated in the 2-day post-Congress workshop. The attendees represented academia, government, environmental organizations, and the mining industry.

Circular↗

USGS2020

Communicating hazards—A social science review to meet U.S. Geological Survey needs

This report is for U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)—and any other—hazard scientists who want to improve the understanding and use of their scientific information, particularly by non-experts. In order for people to use science, they need to understand it. The highly technical, specialized nature of scientific information makes that difficult, particularly when few scientists are trained to communicate with people outside their fields. These issues are of special importance to the USGS because it has many users who are not scientists and because it develops and applies hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of our Nation. In 2010, the Science Application for Risk Reduction group at the USGS discovered the Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED) guide, “The Psychology of Climate Change Communication.” Ever since, a growing number of USGS staff who need to communicate about hazards have used that guide and have asked CRED for a companion report dedicated to hazard communication to harness knowledge from more than 50 years of social science research. In 2016, the USGS and CRED launched a collaboration to develop that companion report. Ultimately, a CRED hazard communication guide would be a Columbia University publication with a wide focus and would include many hazards that are outside the USGS purview. This report is a first step and concentrates strictly on hazard communication needs at the USGS. To identify those needs and tailor this effort to USGS hazard communication priorities, this collaboration began with telephone interviews and an online survey of USGS staff. This report is the result; it summarizes social science research and experience in the areas of hazard communication that USGS participants deemed most important to include.

Circular↗

USGS2013

Natural Hazards Science at the U.S. Geological Survey

The mission of the USGS in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. The USGS conducts hazard research and works closely with stakeholders and cooperators to inform a broad range of planning and response activities at individual, local, State, national, and international levels. It has critical statutory and nonstatutory roles regarding floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, coastal erosion, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and magnetic storms. USGS science can help to understand and reduce risks from natural hazards by providing the information that decisionmakers need to determine which risk management activities are worthwhile.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2012

Natural hazards science strategy

The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. USGS scientific research—founded on detailed observations and improved understanding of the responsible physical processes—can help to understand and reduce natural hazard risks and to make and effectively communicate reliable statements about hazard characteristics, such as frequency, magnitude, extent, onset, consequences, and where possible, the time of future events. To accomplish its broad hazard mission, the USGS maintains an expert workforce of scientists and technicians in the earth sciences, hydrology, biology, geography, social and behavioral sciences, and other fields, and engages cooperatively with numerous agencies, research institutions, and organizations in the public and private sectors, across the Nation and around the world. The scientific expertise required to accomplish the USGS mission in natural hazards includes a wide range of disciplines that this report refers to, in aggregate, as hazard science. In October 2010, the Natural Hazards Science Strategy Planning Team (H–SSPT) was charged with developing a long-term (10-year) Science Strategy for the USGS mission in natural hazards. This report fulfills that charge, with a document hereinafter referred to as the Strategy, to provide scientific observations, analyses, and research that are critical for the Nation to become more resilient to natural hazards. Science provides the information that decisionmakers need to determine whether risk management activities are worthwhile. Moreover, as the agency with the perspective of geologic time, the USGS is uniquely positioned to extend the collective experience of society to prepare for events outside current memory. The USGS has critical statutory and nonstatutory roles regarding floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, coastal erosion, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and magnetic storms—the hazards considered in this plan. There are numerous other hazards of societal importance that are considered either only peripherally or not at all in this Strategy because they are either in another of the USGS strategic science plans (such as drought) or not in the overall mission of the USGS (such as tornados).

Open-File Report↗

USGS2001

MAUP: Modifiable Areal Unit Problem in raster GIS datasets. Raster pixels as modifiable areas

The Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP) is a well-studied aspect of geographic phenomena. It is usually associated with socio-economic data collected by census enumeration units. This problem also applies directly to geographic data in raster formats, including both GIS categorical data layers and remotely sensed images. The author briefly provides a foundation for examining the component parts of the MAUP in remotely sensed raster data.

GIM International↗

USGS2011

Detecting Cheatgrass on the Colorado Plateau using Landsat data: A tutorial for the DESI software

Invasive plant species disrupt native ecosystems and cause economic harm to public lands. In this report, an example of applying the Detection of Early Season Invasives software to mapping cheatgrass infestations is given. A discussion of each step of the DESI process is given, including selection of Landsat images. Tutorial data, covering a semi-arid area in southern Utah, are distributed with this report. Tips on deriving the inputs required to run DESI are provided. An approach for evaluating and adjusting detection parameters by examining interim products of DESI is discussed.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2022

Comparisons of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) sea-ice projections in polar bear (Ursus maritimus) ecoregions during the 21st century

Climate model projections are commonly used to assess potential impacts of global warming on a breadth of social, economic, and environmental topics. Modeling centers throughout the world coordinate to apply a consistent suite of radiative forcing experiments so that all model outputs can be collectively analyzed and compared. Three generations of model outputs have been produced and made available to the scientific community through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP): CMIP3 disseminated during the mid-2000s, CMIP5 during the early-2010s, and CMIP6 during the late-2010s. Twenty-first century sea-ice projections from CMIP3 and CMIP5 models have been used in Bayesian network assessments of how climate change could impact the future persistence of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) throughout their range. In this report, we compare sea-ice projections by CMIP6 models to those of CMIP5 models in each of four polar bear ecoregions over the 21st century. We evaluate differences between the two CMIP generations with respect to other sources of variability that affect uncertainties of the model projections: (1) variability from different models; (2) variability from different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios; and (3) natural (internal) variability in the earth’s climate system. We found that natural variability as well as that attributable to models dominated uncertainties in sea-ice projections in all months and ecoregions during the first half of the 21st century, while emissions scenarios dominated uncertainties during the late 21st century. By comparison, we found only slight differences between the CMIP6 and CMIP5 model projections of sea ice. Applying CMIP6 instead of CMIP5 sea-ice projections to the polar bear Bayesian network model developed in 2016, therefore, would not qualitatively change the population status outcomes published therein.

Open-File Report↗