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44 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Identifying Pareto-efficient eradication strategies for invasive populations

Invasive species are a major cause of biodiversity loss and are notoriously expensive and challenging to manage. We developed a decision-analytic framework for evaluating invasive species removal strategies, given objectives of maximizing eradication probability and minimizing costs. The framework uses an existing estimation model for spatially referenced removal data—one of the most accessible types of invasive species data—to obtain estimates of population growth rate, movement probability, and detection probability. We use these estimates in simulations to identify Pareto-efficient strategies—strategies where increases in eradication probability cannot be obtained without increases in cost—from a set of proposed strategies. We applied the framework post hoc to a successful eradication of veiled chameleons ( Chamaeleo calyptratus ) and identified the potential for substantial improvements in efficiency. Our approach provides managers and policymakers with tools to identify cost-effective strategies for a range of invasive species using only prior knowledge or data from initial physical removals.

Hawaii↗
USGS2022

An interactive viewer to improve operational aftershock forecasts

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) issues forecasts for aftershocks about 20 minutes after most earthquakes above M 5 in the United States and its territories, and updates these forecasts 75 times during the first year. Most of the forecasts are issued automatically, but some forecasts require manual intervention to maintain accuracy. It is important to identify the sequences whose forecasts will benefit from a modified approach so the USGS can provide accurate information to the public. The oaftools R package ( Paris and Michael, 2022 ) includes functions that analyze and plot earthquake sequences and their forecasts to identify which sequences require such intervention. The package includes the Operational Aftershock Forecast (OAF) Viewer, which incorporates the functions into an interactive web environment that can be used to explore aftershock sequences. The OAF Viewer starts with a global map and table of mainshocks. After a mainshock has been selected, the map and a new table show its aftershocks and the OAF Viewer generates five analytical plots: (1) magnitude–time, which is used to look for patterns in the data; (2) cumulative number, to see how the productivity of the sequence compares to a Reasenberg and Jones (1989) aftershock model over time; (3) magnitude–frequency, to compare the ratio of large to small magnitudes and extrapolate to higher magnitudes with sparse data and lower magnitudes with incomplete data; (4) forecast success, to compare the forecasts with observations for a sequence; and (5) parameter–time, which examines the temporal evolution of the forecast model parameters. The user can interact with the functions provided by the oaftools package through the OAF Viewer or by incorporating the functions into their own analysis methods. The OAF Viewer will help seismologists understand complexities in the data, communicate with the public and emergency managers, and improve the OAF system by maintaining operational awareness.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2012

Relating stick-slip friction experiments to earthquake source parameters

Analytical results for parameters, such as static stress drop, for stick-slip friction experiments, with arbitrary input parameters, can be determined by solving an energy-balance equation. These results can then be related to a given earthquake based on its seismic moment and the maximum slip within its rupture zone, assuming that the rupture process entails the same physics as stick-slip friction. This analysis yields overshoots and ratios of apparent stress to static stress drop of about 0.25. The inferred earthquake source parameters static stress drop, apparent stress, slip rate, and radiated energy are robust inasmuch as they are largely independent of the experimental parameters used in their estimation. Instead, these earthquake parameters depend on C, the ratio of maximum slip to the cube root of the seismic moment. C is controlled by the normal stress applied to the rupture plane and the difference between the static and dynamic coefficients of friction. Estimating yield stress and seismic efficiency using the same procedure is only possible when the actual static and dynamic coefficients of friction are known within the earthquake rupture zone.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2013

Modelling dendritic ecological networks in space: anintegrated network perspective

Dendritic ecological networks (DENs) are a unique form of ecological networks that exhibit a dendritic network topology (e.g. stream and cave networks or plant architecture). DENs have a dual spatial representation; as points within the network and as points in geographical space. Consequently, some analytical methods used to quantify relationships in other types of ecological networks, or in 2-D space, may be inadequate for studying the influence of structure and connectivity on ecological processes within DENs. We propose a conceptual taxonomy of network analysis methods that account for DEN characteristics to varying degrees and provide a synthesis of the different approaches within the context of stream ecology. Within this context, we summarise the key innovations of a new family of spatial statistical models that describe spatial relationships in DENs. Finally, we discuss how different network analyses may be combined to address more complex and novel research questions. While our main focus is streams, the taxonomy of network analyses is also relevant anywhere spatial patterns in both network and 2-D space can be used to explore the influence of multi-scale processes on biota and their habitat (e.g. plant morphology and pest infestation, or preferential migration along stream or road corridors).

Ecology Letters↗
USGS1995

40Ar/39Ar and 18O/16O studies of the Chegem ash-flow caldera and the Eldjurta Granite: Cooling of two late Pliocene igneous bodies in the Greater Caucasus Mountains, Russia

Volcanic and intrusive rocks of the Chegem caldera and the nearby Eldjurta (Eldzhurtinskiy) Granite record a late Pliocene episode of silicic magmatism in the north-central Caucasus Mountains. Surface exposures, created by the recent rapid uplift and erosion of the Caucasus Mountains, span a 2 km vertical section of Chegem caldera fill and 1150 m of the Eldjurta Granite; cored mineral-exploration drillholes in the Eldjurta Granite extend the sampling to a depth of 4 km. The unique sampling range available in these two young igneous bodies affords an excellent opportunity to study their denudation and cooling histories, which we examine by means of 40 Ar/ 39 Ar and 18 O/ 16 O measurements on an extensive sample suite. Total-fusion biotite and sanidine ages from eight Chegem Tuff samples, both intracaldera and outflow, are analytically indistinguishable with a weighted mean of 2.82 ± 0.02 Ma. A cross-cutting granodiorite porphyry intrusion has a sanidine total fusion age of 2.84 ± 0.03 Ma, and whole-rock incremental heating of a post-caldera andesite flow, which caps the caldera fill, yields an age of 2.82 ± 0.02 Ma. Thus, caldera formation and post-caldera resurgence and volcanism all occurred within a very short time (< 50,000 yr). Biotite total-fusion ages of ten Eldjurta Granite samples, including seven from ∼ 500 m intervals in the 4 km deep drillhole, show a systematic linear decrease in age with depth from 1.90 Ma near the roof contact of the granite to 1.56 Ma at a depth of 3700 m. Assuming these ages were set at the same temperature, this age/depth gradient implies an isotherm migration rate of 13 mm/yr between 1.90 and 1.56 Ma. This migration rate is due to a combination of rapid denudation and downward relaxation of isotherms, with cooling rates between 200 and 500°C/Ma during this period. Oxygen isotopic compositions of quartz, K-feldspar, plagioclase and biotite from the drillhole samples below the 800 m depth are fairly uniform and record primary igneous δ 18 O values with little evidence for subsolidus hydrothermal activity. However, in surface outcrop samples and in the shallowest drillhole sample, mineral δ 18 O values have been lowered by up to 3‰ by interaction with an external (meteoric-hydrothermal?) fluid. The primary mineral δ 18 O values of the Eldjurta Granite are distinctly higher than the corresponding phenocryst δ 18 O values in the Chegem volcanic rocks, indicating that the two bodies evolved as separxate magma batches.

Caucasus Mountains, Chegem Caldera↗
USGS1989

High-precision UPb ages of metamorphic rutile: Application to the cooling history of high-grade terranes

Metamorphic rutiles occurring in granulite and upper amphibolite facies metapelitic rocks of the Archean Pikwitonei granulite domain (Manitoba) and the Proterozoic Adirondack terrane (New York) give concordant and near concordant U Pb ages. The Pb concentrations in rutile range from 2.85 to 168 ppm, U concentrations range from 10.9 to 390 ppm and the measured 206 Pb/ 204 Pb ratios range from 182 to 22,100 corresponding to 238 U/ 204 Pb ratios of 398–75,100. The proportions of radiogenic 208 Pb are very low, ranging from 0.0 to 6.9% of total radiogenic Pb. The habits of the rutile crystals range from stubby to acicular, the physical properties vary from opaque/black to transparent/reddish-brown. Separate batches of black and reddish-brown rutile grains from the same samples have similar U and Pb concentrations, Pb-isotope ratios, and yield the same U/Pb ages within analytical uncertainty. No correlation of U concentration and 206 Pb/ 204 Pb ratios with morphology or color of the rutiles was observed among the samples analyzed. Most rutiles yield concordant U Pb ages which are reproducible within analytical uncertainty, i.e. generally ±2 Ma . The U Pb ages for prograde rutile are younger than the time of peak metamorphism given by U Pb ages for garnet and zircon, and also younger than U Pb ages for sphene and monazite, and 40 Ar/ 39 Ar and K Ar ages for hornblende but older than 40 Ar/ 39 Ar and K Ar ages for biotite from the same area. This suggests that the rutile ages reflect cooling below closure temperatures. Within a single hand-specimen, and thus for an identical thermal history, larger rutile grains give older ages than do smaller grains. This suggests that volume diffusion is the most probable mechanism responsible for the ages being younger than the time of peak metamorphism. It also suggests that the dimensions for such diffusion are directly related to the dimensions of the rutile crystal and not to the dimensions of sub-grain domains, as is the case for Ar diffusion in hornblende and feldspar. The concordant U Pb ages as well as the similar ages over a large area suggest that rutile has a well-defined temperature of closure. At a cooling rate of about 0.5–1°C/Ma the closure temperature for U Pb diffusion in rutile is about 420°C for grains with a radius of 0.009–0.021 cm, and about 380°C for grains with a radius of 0.007–0.009 cm. U Pb rutile ages obtained on different grain sizes indicate a cooling rate of about 0.5°C/Ma for the Pikwitonei granulite domain at 2460-2300 Ma. U Pb ages for rutile thus provide high-precision ages for evaluating the cooling history of high-grade terranes and can be critical to the quantitative development of thermal models for crustal evolution.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS2002

Thallium isotope variations in seawater and hydrogenetic, diagenetic, and hydrothermal ferromanganese deposits

Results are presented for the first in-depth investigation of TI isotope variations in marine materials. The TI isotopic measurements were conducted by multiple collector-inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry for a comprehensive suite of hydrogenetic ferromanganese crusts, diagenetic Fe-Mn nodules, hydrothermal manganese deposits and seawater samples. The natural variability of TI isotope compositions in these samples exceeds the analytical reproducibility (?? 0.05???) by more than a factor of 40. Hydrogenetic Fe-Mn crusts have ??205TI of + 10 to + 14, whereas seawater is characterized by values as low as -8 (??205TI represents the deviation of the 205TI/203TI ratio of a sample from the NIST SRM 997 TI isotope standard in parts per 104). This ~ 2??? difference in isotope composition is thought to result from the isotope fractionation that accompanies the adsorption of TI onto ferromanganese particles. An equilibrium fractionation factor of ?? ~ 1.0021 is calculated for this process. Ferromanganese nodules and hydrothermal manganese deposits have variable TI isotope compositions that range between the values obtained for seawater and hydrogenetic Fe-Mn crusts. The variability in ??205TI in diagenetic nodules appears to be caused by the adsorption of TI from pore fluids, which act as a closed-system reservoir with a TI isotope composition that is inferred to be similar to seawater. Nodules with ??205TI values similar to seawater are found if the scavenging of TI is nearly quantitative. Hydrothermal manganese deposits display a positive correlation between ??205TI and Mn/Fe. This trend is thought to be due to the derivation of TI from distinct hydrothermal sources. Deposits with low Mn/Fe ratios and low ??205TI are produced by the adsorption of TI from fluids that are sampled close to hydrothermal sources. Such fluids have low Mn/Fe ratios and relatively high temperatures, such that only minor isotope fractionation occurs during adsorption. Hydrothermal manganese deposits with high Mn/Fe and high ??205Ti are generated by scavenging of TI from colder, more distal hydrothermal fluids. Under such conditions, adsorption is associated with significant isotope fractionation, and this produces deposits with higher ??205TI values coupled with high Mn/Fe. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS2009

The SCEC/USGS dynamic earthquake rupture code verification exercise

Numerical simulations of earthquake rupture dynamics are now common, yet it has been difficult to test the validity of these simulations because there have been few field observations and no analytic solutions with which to compare the results. This paper describes the Southern California Earthquake Center/U.S. Geological Survey (SCEC/USGS) Dynamic Earthquake Rupture Code Verification Exercise, where codes that simulate spontaneous rupture dynamics in three dimensions are evaluated and the results produced by these codes are compared using Web-based tools. This is the first time that a broad and rigorous examination of numerous spontaneous rupture codes has been performed—a significant advance in this science. The automated process developed to attain this achievement provides for a future where testing of codes is easily accomplished. Scientists who use computer simulations to understand earthquakes utilize a range of techniques. Most of these assume that earthquakes are caused by slip at depth on faults in the Earth, but hereafter the strategies vary. Among the methods used in earthquake mechanics studies are kinematic approaches and dynamic approaches. The kinematic approach uses a computer code that prescribes the spatial and temporal evolution of slip on the causative fault (or faults). These types of simulations are very helpful, especially since they can be used in seismic data inversions to relate the ground motions recorded in the field to slip on the fault(s) at depth. However, these kinematic solutions generally provide no insight into the physics driving the fault slip or information about why the involved fault(s) slipped that much (or that little). In other words, these kinematic solutions may lack information about the physical dynamics of earthquake rupture that will be most helpful in forecasting future events. To help address this issue, some researchers use computer codes to numerically simulate earthquakes and construct dynamic, spontaneous rupture (hereafter called “spontaneous rupture”) solutions. For these types of numerical simulations, rather than prescribing the slip function at each location on the fault(s), just the friction constitutive properties and initial stress conditions are prescribed. The subsequent stresses and fault slip spontaneously evolve over time as part of the elasto-dynamic solution. Therefore, spontaneous rupture computer simulations of earthquakes allow us to include everything that we know, or think that we know, about earthquake dynamics and to test these ideas against earthquake observations.

Seismological Research Letters↗