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At least 523 records · Page 29Linked to original sources
USGS1999

Status of lake trout rehabilitation in the Northern Refuge of Lake Michigan

The Northern Refuge in Lake Michigan was established in 1985 as part of a rehabilitation program to stock yearling lake trout Salvelinus namaycush in areas with the best potential for success. Stocking of hatchery-reared lake trout within the refuge began in 1986 at three reefs: Boulder Reef, Gull Island Reef, and Richards Reef. On each reef from 1991 to 1997 we conducted gill-net surveys during the fall spawning season to evaluate performance of adult lake trout, and we conducted beam trawl surveys for naturally reproduced age-0 lake trout in the spring. Criteria to evaluate performance included spawner density, growth, maturity, and mortality. We found no evidence of natural reproduction by lake trout from our surveys. Nevertheless, density of spawning lake trout on Boulder Reef (69 fish/305 m of gill net/night) and Gull Island Reef (34 fish/305 m of gill net/night) appeared to be sufficiently high to initiate a self-sustaining population. Growth and maturity rates of lake trout in the Northern Refuge were similar to those for lake trout stocked in the nearshore region of Lake Michigan. In the Northern Refuge, growth rate for the Marquette strain of lake trout was slightly higher than for the Lewis Lake strain. Annual mortality estimates from catch curve analyses ranged from 0.46 to 0.41, and therefore, these estimates approached a level that was considered to be sufficiently low to allow for a self-sustaining population. Thus, it appeared that the lack of evidence for natural reproduction by lake trout in the Northern Refuge should not be attributed to inability of the population to attain a sufficiently large stock of spawners.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗
USGS2010

The bioeconomic impact of different management regulations on the Chesapeake Bay blue crab fishery

The harvest of blue crabs Callinectes sapidus in Chesapeake Bay declined 46% between 1993 and 2001 and remained low through 2008. Because the total market value of this fishery has declined by an average of US $ 3.3 million per year since 1993, the commercial fishery has been challenged to maintain profitability. We developed a bioeconomic simulation model of the Chesapeake Bay blue crab fishery to aid managers in determining which regulations will maximize revenues while ensuring a sustainable harvest. We compared 15 different management scenarios, including those implemented by Maryland and Virginia between 2007 and 2009, that sought to reduce female crab harvest and nine others that used seasonal closures, different size regulations, or the elimination of fishing for specific market categories. Six scenarios produced the highest revenues: the 2008 and 2009 Maryland regulations, spring and fall closures for female blue crabs, and 152- and 165-mm maximum size limits for females. Our most important finding was that for each state the 2008 and 2009 scenarios that implemented early closures of the female crab fishery produced higher revenues than the 2007 scenario, in which no early female closures were implemented. We conclude that the use of maximum size limits for female crabs would not be feasible despite their potentially high revenue, given the likelihood that the soft-shell and peeler fisheries cannot be expanded beyond their current capacity and the potentially high mortality rate for culled individuals that are the incorrect size. Our model results support the current use of seasonal closures for females, which permit relatively high exploitation of males and soft-shell and peeler blue crabs (which have high prices) while keeping the female crab harvest sustainable. Further, our bioeconomic model allows for the inclusion of an economic viewpoint along with biological data when target reference points are set by managers.

Chesapeake Bay↗
USGS2011

Exploring links between systematics and fisheries management

We argue that the sustainable management of fisheries resources depends on an understanding of the taxonomy and systematics of fish. Toward this end, it is necessary for fisheries managers to understand and apply the various species concepts that have been developed by taxonomists and evolutionary biologists and to decide, based on a philosophical position, what is necessary and sufficient for a taxon to be recognized as a distinct species. If species are viewed as ontological individuals and as such exist in nature, then it makes sense for managers to develop strategies to sustain and manipulate given populations to achieve management goals. In this series of papers, the authors explore species concepts with respect to fish and demonstrate the value of understanding species concepts, systematics, and taxonomy in addressing modern fisheries management problems.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗
USGS2011

Variable responses of fish assemblages, habitat, and stability to natural-channel-design restoration in Catskill Mountain streams

Natural-channel-design (NCD) restorations were recently implemented within large segments of five first- and second-order streams in the Catskill Mountains of New York in an attempt to increase channel stability, reduce bed and bank erosion, and sustain water quality. In conjunction with these efforts, 54 fish and habitat surveys were done from 1999 to 2007 at six restored reaches and five stable control reaches to evaluate the effects of NCD restoration on fish assemblages, habitat, and bank stability. A before–after–control–impact study design and two-factor analysis of variance were used to quantify the net changes in habitat and fish population and community indices at treatment reaches relative to those at unaltered control reaches. The density and biomass of fish communities were often dominated by one or two small prey species and no or few predator species before restoration and by one or more trout (Salmonidae) species after restoration. Significant increases in community richness (30%), diversity (40%), species or biomass equitability (32%), and total biomass (up to 52%) in at least four of the six restored reaches demonstrate that NCD restorations can improve the health and sustainability of fish communities in geomorphically unstable Catskill Mountain streams over the short to marginally long term. Bank stability, stream habitat, and trout habitat suitability indices (HSIs) generally improved significantly at the restored reaches, but key habitat features and trout HSIs did not change or decreased at two of them. Fish communities and trout populations at these two reaches were not positively affected by NCD restorations. Though NCD restorations often had a positive effect on habitat and fish communities, our results show that the initial habitat conditions limit the relative improvements than can be achieved, habitat quality and stability do not necessarily respond in unison, and biotic and abiotic responses cannot always be generalized.

New York↗
USGS2005

Challenges in evaluating the impact of the trade in amphibians and reptiles on wild populations

Amphibians and reptiles are taken from the wild and sold commercially as food, pets, and traditional medicines. The overcollecting of some species highlights the need to assess the trade and ensure that it is not contributing to declines in wild populations. Unlike most countries, the United States tracks the imports and exports of all amphibians and reptiles. Records from 1998 to 2002 reveal a US trade of several million wild-caught amphibians and reptiles each year, although many shipments are not recorded at the species level. The magnitude and content of the global commercial trade carries even greater unknowns. The absence of accurate trade and biological information for most species makes it difficult to establish whether current take levels are sustainable. The void of information also implies that population declines due to overcollecting could be going undetected. Policy changes to acquire baseline biological information and ensure a sustainable trade are urgently needed.

BioScience↗
USGS2007

A shifting mosaic of scholarly publishing, scientific delivery, and future impact changing the face of learned societies

Nonprofit scientific societies hope that their activities advance their particular mission and impact their profession and, in the broadest sense, humanity in positive ways. The digital age has provided unprecedented mechanisms to enhance the delivery of science to the world. The marketplace of scientific publishing is a rapidly shifting mosaic of challenges and opportunities, and the responses of nonprofit and commercial publishers vary widely, but their outcomes are still uncertain. The response of the American Society of Mammalogists (ASM) provides an example of how a relatively small society has altered its scientific delivery to enhance member benefits while attempting to sustain its economic viability. Since 2000, ASM has moved from a self-publishing, break-even, print-only model to a copublishing agreement with a commercial publisher (Alliance Communications Group, a division of Allen Press, Inc., Lawrence, Kansas), which now offers members various print and electronic options and generates a shared royalty. Although it is too early to gauge the economic impact of these changes, the ASM leadership clearly attempted to signal its desire for members to view their society as a package of opportunities for edification and involvement rather than just a provider of serial subscriptions. Future challenges facing nonprofit scientific societies include open access, fiscal realities, archiving of publications, and scientific and societal impact; future opportunities include a strengthening of member responsibilities and professionalism, development of data registries to enhance scientific progress, and bundling of like societies. The manner in which nonprofit scientific societies respond to these challenges and opportunities will no doubt affect their sustainability and future impact. ?? 2007 American Society of Mammalogists.

Journal of Mammalogy↗
USGS2018

A new high-resolution map of world mountains and an online tool for visualizing and comparing characterizations of global mountain distributions

Answers to the seemingly straightforward questions “what is a mountain?” and “where are the mountains of the world?” are in fact quite complex, and there have been few attempts to map the mountains of the earth in a consistent and rigorous fashion. However, knowing exactly where mountain ecosystems are distributed on the planet is a precursor to conserving them, as called for in Sustainable Development Goals 6 and 15 of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. In this article we first compare 3 characterizations of global mountain distributions, including a new, high-resolution (250 m) map of global mountains derived from terrain characteristics. We show how differences in conceptual definition, methodology, and spatial resolution of source data can result in differences in the extent and location of lands classed as mountains. For example, the new 250-m resource documents a larger global mountain extent than previous characterizations, although it excludes plateaus, hilly forelands, and other landforms that are often considered part of mountain areas. We then introduce the Global Mountain Explorer, a new web-based application specifically developed for exploration, visualization, and comparison of these maps. This new open-access tool is an intuitive and versatile resource suitable for a broad range of users and applications.

Mountain Research and Development↗
USGS2009

The ecology, restoration, and management of southeastern floodplain ecosystems: A synthesis

Floodplain ecosystems of the southeastern United States provide numerous services to society, but hydrologic and geomorphic alterations, agricultural practices, water quality and availability, and urban development continue to challenge restorationists and managers at multiple spatial and temporal scales. These challenges are further exacerbated by tremendous uncertainty regarding climate and land use patterns and natural variability in these systems. The symposium from which the papers in 2009 ensued was organized to provide a critical evaluation of current natural resource restoration and management practices to support the sustainability of floodplain ecosystem functions in the southeastern United States. In this paper we synthesize these concepts and evaluate restoration and conservation techniques in light of our understanding of these ecosystems. We also discuss current and future challenges and attempt to identify new approaches that may facilitate the long-term sustainability of southeastern floodplain systems. We conclude that integration of disciplines and approaches is necessary to meet the floodplain conservation challenges of the coming century. Integration will not only include purposeful dialogue between interdisciplinary natural resource professionals, but it also is necessary to sincerely engage the public about goals, objectives, and desirable outcomes of floodplain ecosystem restoration.

Southeastern Floodplain systems↗
USGS2017

Tree species preferences of foraging songbirds during spring migration in floodplain forests of the Upper Mississippi River

Floodplain forest of the Upper Mississippi River is important for songbirds during spring migration. However, the altered hydrology of this system and spread of reed canary grass (Phalaris arundinacea) and emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis) threaten tree diversity and long-term sustainability of this forest. We estimated tree preferences of songbirds during spring migration 2010–2013 to help guide management decisions that promote tree diversity and forest sustainability and to evaluate yearly variation in tree selection. We used the point center-quarter method to assess relative availability of tree species and tallied bird foraging observations on tree species as well as recording the phenophase of used trees on five 40 ha plots of contiguous floodplain forest between La Crosse, Wisconsin and New Albin, Iowa, from 15 April through 1 June. We quantified bird preferences by comparing proportional use of tree species by each bird species to estimates of tree species availability for all 4 y and for each year separately. Species that breed locally preferred silver maple (Acer saccharinum), which is dominant in this forest. The common transient migrant species and the suite of 17 transient wood warbler species preferred hackberry (Celtis occidentalis) and oaks (Quercus spp.), which are limited to higher elevations on the floodplain. We observed earlier leaf development the warm springs of 2010 and 2012 and later leaf development the cold springs of 2011 and 2013. Yellow-rumped Warbler (Setophaga coronata), American Redstart (S. ruticilla), Warbling Vireo (Vireo gilvus) and Baltimore Oriole (Icterus galbula), and the suite of transient migrant wood warblers spread their foraging efforts among tree species in colder springs and were more selective in warmer springs. All three of the important tree species are not regenerating well on the UMR and widespread die-off of silver maple is possible in 50 y without large scale management.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗
USGS2010

Neotectonics and paleoseismology of the Limón and pedro miguel faults in Panamá: earthquake hazard to the Panamá canal

We present new geologic, tectonic geomorphic, and geochronologic data on the slip rate, timing, and size of past surface ruptures for the right-lateral Lim??n and Pedro Miguel faults in central Panam??. These faults are part of a system of conjugate faults that accommodate the internal deformation of Panam?? resulting from the ongoing collision of Central and South America. There have been at least three surface ruptures on the Lim??n fault in the past 950-1400 years, with the most recent during the past 365 years. Displacement in this young event is at least 1.2 m (based on trenching) and may be 1.6-2 m (based on small channel offsets). Awell-preserved 4.2 m offset suggests that the penultimate event also sustained significant displacement. The Holocene slip rate has averaged about 6 mm=yr, based on a 30-m offset terrace riser incised into a 5-ka abandoned channel. The Pedro Miguel fault has sustained three surface ruptures in the past 1600 years, the most recent being the 2 May 1621 earthquake that partially destroyed Panam?? Viejo. At least 2.1 m of slip occurred in this event near the Canal, with geomorphic offsets suggesting 2.5-3 m. The historic Camino de Cruces is offset 2.8 m, indicating multimeter displacement over at least 20 km of fault length. Channel offsets of 100-400 m, together with a climate-induced incision model, suggest a Late Quaternary slip rate of about 5 mm=yr, which is consistent with the paleoseismic results. Comparison of the timing of surface ruptures between the Lim??n and Pedro Miguel faults suggests that large earthquakes may rupture both faults with 2-3 m of displacement for over 40 km, such as is likely in earthquakes in the M 7 range. Altogether, our observations indicate that the Lim??n and Pedro Miguel faults represent a significant seismic hazard to central Panam?? and, specifically, to the Canal and Panam?? City.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2004

Agricultural ponds support amphibian populations

In some agricultural regions, natural wetlands are scarce, and constructed agricultural ponds may represent important alternative breeding habitats for amphibians. Properly managed, these agricultural ponds may effectively increase the total amount of breeding habitat and help to sustain populations. We studied small, constructed agricultural ponds in southeastern Minnesota to assess their value as amphibian breeding sites. Our study examined habitat factors associated with amphibian reproduction at two spatial scales: the pond and the landscape surrounding the pond. We found that small agricultural ponds in southeastern Minnesota provided breeding habitat for at least 10 species of amphibians. Species richness and multispecies reproductive success were more closely associated with characteristics of the pond (water quality, vegetation, and predators) compared with characteristics of the surrounding landscape, but individual species were associated with both pond and landscape variables. Ponds surrounded by row crops had similar species richness and reproductive success compared with natural wetlands and ponds surrounded by nongrazed pasture. Ponds used for watering livestock had elevated concentrations of phosphorus, higher turbidity, and a trend toward reduced amphibian reproductive success. Species richness was highest in small ponds, ponds with lower total nitrogen concentrations, tiger salamanders ( Ambystoma tigrinum ) present, and lacking fish. Multispecies reproductive success was best in ponds with lower total nitrogen concentrations, less emergent vegetation, and lacking fish. Habitat factors associated with higher reproductive success varied among individual species. We conclude that small, constructed farm ponds, properly managed, may help sustain amphibian populations in landscapes where natural wetland habitat is rare. We recommend management actions such as limiting livestock access to the pond to improve water quality, reducing nitrogen input, and avoiding the introduction of fish.

Minnesota↗
USGS1999

Modeling the effects of land use and climate change on riverine smallmouth bass

Anthropogenic changes in temperature and stream flow, associated with watershed land use and climate change, are critical influences on the distribution and abundance of riverine fishes. To project the effects of changing land use and climate, we modeled a smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) population in a midwestern USA, large river–floodplain ecosystem under historical (1915–1925), present (1977–1990), and future (2060, influenced by climate change) temperature and flow regimes. The age-structured model included parameters for temperature and river discharge during critical seasonal periods, fish population dynamics, and fishing harvest. Model relationships were developed from empirical field data collected over a 13-yr period. Sensitivity analyses indicated that discharge during the spawning/rearing period had a greater effect on adult density and fishing yield than did spawning/rearing temperature or winter discharge. Simulations for 100 years projected a 139% greater mean fish density under a historical flow regime (64.9 fish/ha) than that estimated for the present (27.1 fish/ha) with a sustainable fishing harvest under both flow regimes. Simulations under future climate-change-induced temperature and flow regimes with present land use projected a 69% decrease in mean fish density (8.5 fish/ha) from present and an unstable population that went extinct during 56% of the simulations. However, when simulated under a future climate-altered temperature and flow regime with historical land use, the population increased by 66% (45.0 fish/ha) from present and sustained a harvest. Our findings suggest that land-use changes may be a greater detriment to riverine fishes than projected climate change and that the combined effects of both factors may lead to local species extinction. However, the negative effects of increased temperature and precipitation associated with future global warming could be mitigated by river channel, floodplain, and watershed restoration.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2003

Applying ecological criteria to marine reserve design: A case study from the California Channel Islands

Using ecological criteria as a theoretical framework, we describe the steps involved in designing a network of marine reserves for conservation and fisheries management. Although we describe the case study of the Channel Islands, the approach to marine reserve design may be effective in other regions where traditional management alone does not sustain marine resources. A group of agencies, organizations, and individuals established clear goals for marine reserves in the Channel Islands, including conservation of ecosystem biodiversity, sustainable fisheries, economic viability, natural and cultural heritage, and education. Given the constraints of risk management, experimental design, monitoring, and enforcement, scientists recommended at least one, but no more than four, reserves in each biogeographic region. In general, the percentage of an area to be included in a reserve network depends on the goals. In the Channel Islands, after consideration of both conservation goals and the risk from human threats and natural catastrophes, scientists recommended reserving an area of 30–50% of all representative habitats in each biogeographic region. For most species of concern, except pinnipeds and seabirds, information about distributions, dispersal, and population growth was limited. As an alternative to species distribution information, suitable habitats for species of concern were used to locate potential reserve sites. We used a simulated annealing algorithm to identify potential reserve network scenarios that would represent all habitats within the smallest area possible. The analysis produced an array of potential reserve network scenarios that all met the established goals.

California↗
USGS2006

Simulating the influences of various fire regimes on caribou winter habitat

Caribou are an integral component of high‐latitude ecosystems and represent a major subsistence food source for many northern people. The availability and quality of winter habitat is critical to sustain these caribou populations. Caribou commonly use older spruce woodlands with adequate terrestrial lichen, a preferred winter forage, in the understory. Changes in climate and fire regime pose a significant threat to the long‐term sustainability of this important winter habitat. Computer simulations performed with a spatially explicit vegetation succession model (ALFRESCO) indicate that changes in the frequency and extent of fire in interior Alaska may substantially impact the abundance and quality of winter habitat for caribou. We modeled four different fire scenarios and tracked the frequency, extent, and spatial distribution of the simulated fires and associated changes to vegetation composition and distribution. Our results suggest that shorter fire frequencies (i.e., less time between recurring fires) on the winter range of the Nelchina caribou herd in eastern interior Alaska will result in large decreases of available winter habitat, relative to that currently available, in both the short and long term. A 30% shortening of the fire frequency resulted in a 3.5‐fold increase in the area burned annually and an associated 41% decrease in the amount of spruce–lichen forest found on the landscape. More importantly, simulations with more frequent fires produced a relatively immature forest age structure, compared to that which currently exists, with few stands older than 100 years. This age structure is at the lower limits of stand age classes preferred by caribou from the Nelchina herd. Projected changes in fire regime due to climate warming and/or additional prescribed burning could substantially alter the winter habitat of caribou in interior Alaska and lead to changes in winter range use and/or population dynamics.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2012

Allowable levels of take for the trade in Nearctic songbirds

The take of Nearctic songbirds for the caged-bird trade is an important cultural and economic activity in Mexico, but its sustainability has been questioned. We relied on the theta-logistic population model to explore options for setting allowable levels of take for 11 species of passerines that were subject to legal take in Mexico in 2010. Because estimates of population size necessary for making periodic adjustments to levels of take are not routinely available, we examined the conditions under which a constant level of take might contribute to population depletion (i.e., a population below its level of maximum net productivity). The chance of depleting a population is highest when levels of take are based on population sizes that happen to be much lower or higher than the level of maximum net productivity, when environmental variation is relatively high and serially correlated, and when the interval between estimation of population size is relatively long (≥5 years). To estimate demographic rates of songbirds involved in the Mexican trade we relied on published information and allometric relationships to develop probability distributions for key rates, and then sampled from those distributions to characterize the uncertainty in potential levels of take. Estimates of the intrinsic rate of growth (r) were highly variable, but median estimates were consistent with those expected for relatively short-lived, highly fecund species. Allowing for the possibility of nonlinear density dependence generally resulted in allowable levels of take that were lower than would have been the case under an assumption of linearity. Levels of take authorized by the Mexican government in 2010 for the 11 species we examined were small in comparison to relatively conservative allowable levels of take (i.e., those intended to achieve 50% of maximum sustainable yield). However, the actual levels of take in Mexico are unknown and almost certainly exceed the authorized take. Also, the take of Nearctic songbirds in other Latin American and Caribbean countries ultimately must be considered in assessing population-level impacts.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2014

Demography of a reintroduced population: moving toward management models for an endangered species, the whooping crane

The reintroduction of threatened and endangered species is now a common method for reestablishing populations. Typically, a fundamental objective of reintroduction is to establish a self-sustaining population. Estimation of demographic parameters in reintroduced populations is critical, as these estimates serve multiple purposes. First, they support evaluation of progress toward the fundamental objective via construction of population viability analyses (PVAs) to predict metrics such as probability of persistence. Second, PVAs can be expanded to support evaluation of management actions, via management modeling. Third, the estimates themselves can support evaluation of the demographic performance of the reintroduced population, e.g., via comparison with wild populations. For each of these purposes, thorough treatment of uncertainties in the estimates is critical. Recently developed statistical methods - namely, hierarchical Bayesian implementations of state-space models - allow for effective integration of different types of uncertainty in estimation. We undertook a demographic estimation effort for a reintroduced population of endangered whooping cranes with the purpose of ultimately developing a Bayesian PVA for determining progress toward establishing a self-sustaining population, and for evaluating potential management actions via a Bayesian PVA-based management model. We evaluated individual and temporal variation in demographic parameters based upon a multi-state mark-recapture model. We found that survival was relatively high across time and varied little by sex. There was some indication that survival varied by release method. Survival was similar to that observed in the wild population. Although overall reproduction in this reintroduced population is poor, birds formed social pairs when relatively young, and once a bird was in a social pair, it had a nearly 50% chance of nesting the following breeding season. Also, once a bird had nested, it had a high probability of nesting again. These results are encouraging considering that survival and reproduction have been major challenges in past reintroductions of this species. The demographic estimates developed will support construction of a management model designed to facilitate exploration of management actions of interest, and will provide critical guidance in future planning for this reintroduction. An approach similar to what we describe could be usefully applied to many reintroduced populations.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2013

Potential effects of sea-level rise on coastal wetlands in southeastern Louisiana

Coastal Louisiana wetlands contain about 37% of the estuarine herbaceous marshes in the conterminous United States. The long-term stability of coastal wetlands is often a function of a wetland's ability to maintain elevation equilibrium with mean sea level through processes such as primary production and sediment accretion. However, Louisiana has sustained more coastal wetland loss than all other states in the continental United States combined due to a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors, including sea-level rise. This study investigates the potential impact of current and accelerating sea-level rise rates on key coastal wetland habitats in southeastern Louisiana using the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM). Model calibration was conducted using a 1956–2007 observation period and hindcasting results predicted 35% versus observed 39% total marsh loss. Multiple sea-level-rise scenarios were then simulated for the period of 2007–2100. Results indicate a range of potential wetland losses by 2100, from an additional 2,188.97 km 2 (218,897 ha, 9% of the 2007 wetland area) under the lowest sea-level-rise scenario (0.34 m), to a potential loss of 5,875.27 km 2 (587,527 ha, 24% of the 2007 wetland area) in the highest sea-level-rise scenario (1.9 m). Model results suggest that one area of particular concern is the potential vulnerability of the region's baldcypress-water tupelo ( Taxodium distichum-Nyssa aquatica ) swamp habitat, much of which is projected to become permanently flooded (affecting regeneration) under all modeled scenarios for sea-level rise. These findings will aid in the development of ecosystem management plans that support the processes and conditions that result in sustainable coastal ecosystems.

Louisiana↗
USGS2007

Climate variability controls on unsaturated water and chemical movement, High Plains aquifer, USA

Responses in the vadose zone and groundwater to interannual, interdecadal, and multidecadal climate variability have important implications for groundwater resource sustainability, yet they are poorly documented and not well understood in most aquifers of the USA. This investigation systematically examines the role of interannual to multidecadal climate variability on groundwater levels, deep infiltration (3–23 m) events, and downward displacement (>1 m) of chloride and nitrate reservoirs in thick (15–50 m) vadose zones across the regionally extensive High Plains aquifer. Such vadose zone responses are unexpected across much of the aquifer given a priori that unsaturated total-potential profiles indicate upward water movement from the water table toward the root zone, mean annual potential evapotranspiration exceeds mean annual precipitation, and millennia-scale evapoconcentration results in substantial vadose zone chloride and nitrate reservoirs. Using singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to reconstruct precipitation and groundwater level time-series components, variability was identified in all time series as partially coincident with known climate cycles, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (10–25 yr) and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (2–6 yr). Using these lag-correlated hydrologic time series, a new method is demonstrated to estimate climate-varying unsaturated water flux. The results suggest the importance of interannual to interdecadal climate variability on water-flux estimation in thick vadose zones and provide better understanding of the climate-induced transients responsible for the observed deep infiltration and chemical-mobilization events. Based on these results, we discuss implications for climate-related sustainability of the High Plains aquifer.

Vadose Zone Journal↗