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At least 523 records · Page 29Linked to original sources

Submarine ground water discharge and fate along the coast of Kaloko-Honokohau National Historical Park, Hawaii Part I: Time-series measurements of currents, waves, salinity and temperature: November 2005 – July 2006

The impending development for the west Hawai‘i coastline adjacent to Kaloko-Honokōhau National Historical Park (KAHO) may potentially alter coastal hydrology and water quality in the marine waters of the park. Water resources are perhaps the most significant natural and cultural resource component in the park, and are critical to the health and well being of six federally listed species. KAHO contains ecosystems of brackish anchialine pools, two 11-acre fishponds, and 596 acres of coral reef habitats, all fed by groundwater originating upslope. The steep gradients on high islands, combined with typically porous substrates and high rainfall levels at upper elevations, make these settings especially vulnerable to shifts in submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) and its entrained nutrients and pollutants. Little is known about the magnitude, rate, frequency, and variability of SGD and its influence on contaminant loading to Hawaiian coastal environments. Recent studies show that groundwater flux through the park is vital to many ecosystem components including anchialine ponds and wetland biota. The function of these ecosystems may be vulnerable to changes in groundwater flow stemming from natural changes (climate and sea level) and land use (groundwater pumping and contamination). Oki and others (1999) showed that increased groundwater withdrawals for urban development since 1978 likely decreased groundwater flux to the coast by 50%. During this same time, the quality of groundwater has been vulnerable to increases in contaminant and nutrient/fertilizer additions associated with industrial, commercial and residential use upslope from KAHO (Oki and others, 1999). High-resolution measurements of waves, currents, water levels, temperature and salinity were collected in the marine portion of the park from November, 2005, through July, 2006, to establish baseline information on the magnitude, rate, frequency, and variability of SGD. These data are intended to help researchers and resource managers better understand the hydrodynamics of the oceanographic environment in the park’s coastal waters as it pertains to the pathway of SGD and associated nutrient and contaminant input to the park’s coral reef ecosystem. Measurements were made of the oceanographic environment (waves, tides, currents, salinity and temperature) using hydrodynamic techniques to characterize and quantify the distribution, input and throughput of freshwater and associated nutrient/contaminant within the near shore environment of KAHO through the emplacement of a series of bottom-mounted instruments deployed in water depths less than 15 m. This study was conducted in support of the National Park Service (NPS) by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Geology Program’s Coral Reef Project. These measurements support the ongoing studies of the Coral Reef Project to better understand the transport mechanisms of sediment, larvae, nutrients, pollutants and other particles on Pacific coral reefs. Subsequent reports will address the spatial and temporal variability in groundwater input and the associated nutrient flux in the park’s waters.

Hawai'i↗

Genetics Show Current Decline and Pleistocene Expansion in Northern Spotted Owls

The northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) is one of the most controversial threatened subspecies ever listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Because of concern for persistence of the subspecies, logging on Federal lands in the U.S. Pacific Northwest was dramatically reduced under the Northwest Forest Plan in 1994. Despite protection of its remaining forest habitat, recent field studies show continued demographic declines of northern spotted owls. One potential threat to northern spotted owls that has not yet been shown is loss of genetic variation from population bottlenecks that can increase inbreeding depression and decrease adaptive potential. Here, we show recent genetic bottlenecks in northern spotted owls using a large genetic dataset (352 individuals from across the subspecies' range and 11 microsatellite loci). The signature of bottlenecks was strongest in Washington State, in agreement with field data. Interestingly, we also found a genetic signature of Pleistocene expansion in the same study areas where recent bottlenecks were shown. Our results provide independent evidence that northern spotted owls have recently declined, and suggest that loss of genetic variation is an emerging threat to the subspecies' persistence. Reduced effective population size (Ne), shown here in addition to field evidence for demographic decline, highlights the increasing vulnerability of this bird to extinction.

Open-File Report↗

Young Stand Thinning and Diversity Study: Response of Songbird Community One Decade Post-Treatment

The response of songbird assemblages to commercial thinning is likely to change as vegetation develops over time after thinning. The influence of thinning intensity and pattern on the timing of transitions in bird community composition following thinning is of interest to managers when a goal is to maintain diversity and accelerate the development of late-seral forest structure. We investigated changes in the composition of songbird assemblages and density of individual species from 2 years before to 12 years after experimental thinning of 40-year-old stands dominated by Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) in the Oregon Cascades. Species richness, and density for five species and the neotropical migrant group were greater in thinned than in unthinned control stands over all post-treatment years of the study. Similarly, three species maintained a negative response to thinning over the post-treatment period. The initial positive influence of thinning was no longer in evidence a decade after harvest for five species. Of seven species with an initial negative response to thinning, three indicated recovery towards pre-treatment densities by the end of the most recent post-treatment survey. Our study is one of the first to document long-term effects of commercial thinning on forest songbird assemblages in the Pacific Northwest.

Open-File Report↗

Divergence of seafloor elevation and sea level rise in coral reef ecosystems

Coral reefs serve as natural barriers that protect adjacent shorelines from coastal hazards such as storms, waves, and erosion. Projections indicate global degradation of coral reefs due to anthropogenic impacts and climate change will cause a transition to net erosion by mid-century. Here, we provide a comprehensive assessment of the combined effect of all of the processes affecting seafloor accretion and erosion by measuring changes in seafloor elevation and volume for five coral reef ecosystems in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Caribbean over the last several decades. Regional-scale mean elevation and volume losses were observed at all five study sites and in 77 % of the 60 individual habitats that we examined across all study sites. Mean seafloor elevation losses for whole coral reef ecosystems in our study ranged from −0.09 to −0.8 m, corresponding to net volume losses ranging from 3.4 × 10 6 to 80.5 × 10 6 m 3 for all study sites. Erosion of both coral-dominated substrate and non-coral substrate suggests that the current rate of carbonate production is no longer sufficient to support net accretion of coral reefs or adjacent habitats. We show that regional-scale loss of seafloor elevation and volume has accelerated the rate of relative sea level rise in these regions. Current water depths have increased to levels not predicted until near the year 2100, placing these ecosystems and nearby communities at elevated and accelerating risk to coastal hazards. Our results set a new baseline for projecting future impacts to coastal communities resulting from degradation of coral reef systems and associated losses of natural and socioeconomic resources.

Biogeosciences↗

U. S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY MARINE-MINERALS RESEARCH.

Summary form only given. The US Exclusive Economic Zone is an area approximately one and two-thirds the size of the land area of the United States. In this frontier area, US Geological Survey (USGS) research in marine minerals is aimed at three objectives: (1) defining geologic settings of potential mineral resources; (2) understanding the processes by which seafloor nonliving resources form; and (3) estimating the resource potential. Potential resources of primary interest are cobalt-rich manganese seafloor crusts, polymetallic sulfides in hydrothermal vent areas on the seafloor, and heavy-mineral placer deposits. Research activities include studies of manganese-crust samples from oceanographic-institution archives and a USGS research cruise through the central and southern Pacific. Preliminary results confirm that cobalt is concentrated by as much as 2. 5% in the manganese crusts at water depths of 1000-2600 m; further research on the precipitation processes and patterns of crust formation will be needed to understand the origin, occurrence patterns, and resource potential of these crusts. Research cruises have revealed a zone of polymetallic sulfide vent deposits a few hundred meters long in the Juan de Fuca spreading center.

Conference Paper↗

Brood stock segregation for the control of bacterial kidney disease can affect mortality of progeny chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in seawater

Segregation of spring chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) brood stock based on the measurement of maternal Renibacterium salmoninarum infection levels by the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and the fluorescent antibody technique (FAT) was previously shown to affect the prevalence and levels of bacterial kidney disease (BKD) in progeny fish during hatchery rearing. Smolts from that study were subjected to standardized fish health and condition evaluation procedures 2 weeks before the conclusion of hatchery rearing and release of the fish for migration to the Pacific Ocean. The results suggested that the general health of the smolts in the progeny group from parents that had low R. salmoninarum infection levels or tested negative for R. salmoninarum (low-BKD group) was better than that of the smolts in the progeny group from female parents with high R. salmoninarum infection levels (high-BKD group). Testing by the ELISA showed that the overall severity of R. salmoninarum infection also was lower in the smolts from the low-BKD group. Subgroups of smolts from the study were acclimated to tanks of seawater for extended holding. After a 22-day acclimation period and 98 days in full-strength (29 ppt salinity) seawater, total mortality was 12% in the low-BKD group and 44% in the high-BKD group. All of the mortality in the low-BKD group and 85% of the mortality in the high-BKD group occurred after the fish were transferred to full-strength seawater. Testing of kidney tissues from all dead fish by the FAT revealed that 85% of the fish that died in the high-BKD group had high R. salmoninarum numbers, indicating that BKD was the cause of death. In contrast, none of the fish that died in the low-BKD group had detectable numbers of R. salmoninarum . We concluded that brood stock segregation by use of the ELISA and the FAT can affect mortality and the R. salmoninarum status of progeny chinook salmon for as long as 21 months after hatching, even after the fish have been transferred to seawater.

Aquaculture↗

Azimuthal seismic anisotropy of 70 Ma Pacific‐plate upper mantle

Plate formation and evolution processes are predicted to generate upper mantle seismic anisotropy and negative vertical velocity gradients in oceanic lithosphere. However, predictions for upper mantle seismic velocity structure do not fully agree with the results of seismic experiments. The strength of anisotropy observed in the upper mantle varies widely. Further, many refraction studies observe a fast direction of anisotropy rotated several degrees with respect to the paleospreading direction, suggesting that upper mantle anisotropy records processes other than 2D corner flow and plate‐driven shear near mid‐ocean ridges. We measure 6.0 ± 0.3% anisotropy at the Moho in 70 Ma lithosphere in the central Pacific with a fast direction parallel to paleospreading, consistent with mineral alignment by 2D mantle flow near a mid‐ocean ridge. We also find an increase in the strength of anisotropy with depth, with vertical velocity gradients estimated at 0.02 km/s/km in the fast direction and 0 km/s/km in the slow direction. The increase in anisotropy with depth can be explained by mechanisms for producing anisotropy other than intrinsic effects from mineral fabric, such as aligned cracks or other structures. This measurement of seismic anisotropy and gradients reflects the effects of both plate formation and evolution processes on seismic velocity structure in mature oceanic lithosphere, and can serve as a reference for future studies to investigate the processes involved in lithospheric formation and evolution.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Ichthyophonus parasite phylogeny based on ITS rDNA structure prediction and alignment identifies six clades, with a single dominant marine type

Despite their widespread, global impact in both wild and cultured fishes, little is known of the diversity, transmission patterns, and phylogeography of parasites generally identified as Ichthyophonus. This study constructed a phylogeny based on the structural alignment of internal transcribed spacer (ITS) rDNA sequences to compare Ichthyophonus isolates from fish hosts in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, and several rivers and aquaculture sites in North America, Europe, and Japan. Structure of the Ichthyophonus ITS1–5.8S–ITS2 transcript exhibited several homologies with other eukaryotes, and 6 distinct clades were identified within Ichthyophonus. A single clade contained a majority (71 of 98) of parasite isolations. This ubiquitous Ichthyophonus type occurred in 13 marine and anadromous hosts and was associated with epizootics in Atlantic herring, Chinook salmon, and American shad. A second clade contained all isolates from aquaculture, despite great geographic separation of the freshwater hosts. Each of the 4 remaining clades contained isolates from single host species. This study is the first to evaluate the genetic relationships among Ichthyophonus species across a significant portion of their host and geographic range. Additionally, parasite infection prevalence is reported in 16 fish species.

Diseases of Aquatic Organisms↗

The use of scenario analysis to assess water ecosystem services in response to future land use change in the Willamette River Basin, Oregon

Human pressures on the natural resources of the United States have resulted in many unintended changes in our ecosystems, e.g., loss of biodiversity, habitat degradation, increases in the number of endangered species, and increases in contamination and water pollution. Environmental managers are concerned about broad-scale changes in land use and landscape pattern and their cumulative impact on hydrologic and ecological processes that affect stream conditions. The type of land use and land cover has direct consequences for most ecosystem services, including water quantity and water quality, erosion control, and biodiversity. As human pressure continues to increase, ecosystem services worldwide are projected to suffer continued loss and degradation, thus reducing the capacity of ecosystems to provide essential goods and services that contribute to human well-being (MEA 2005). The ability to assess, report, and forecast the life support functions of ecosystems is absolutely critical to our capacity to make informed decisions which will maintain the sustainable nature of our environmental services and secure these resources into the future. This study presents an integrated approach to identify areas with potential water quality problems as a result of land cover change projected by stakeholders within a moderately large river basin in the Pacific Northwest (USA). A process-based hydrologic watershed model was used to examine the contribution of land use/land cover to sediment yield, and nitrate and phosphorous loadings, and identify subwatersheds within the Willamette River basin that would be most affected in the year 2050 relative to three possible future scenarios which include inherent differences related to conservation, existing planning trends, and open development. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of alternative future scenarios that describe varying degrees of urban development and human use on hydrological response related to water quality. Results of this study suggest that the amount of forest along streams and agriculture consistently explained a high percentage of variation in nutrients. The AGWA-SWAT model was used to simulate change in sediment yield, nitrate and phosphorus transported with surface runoff for the three future scenarios. With regard to nitrate, the greatest increase was associated with subwatersheds with agricultural land use and urban areas. Although the model predicted some improvement in basin headwaters for all scenarios, nitrate loadings are expected to decrease under the conservation scenario. The largest decrease was observed in the Coast Range. With regard to phosphorous loadings, the lowest reduction was observed in subwatersheds draining predominantly forest areas. The greatest increase was observed under the open development scenario in subwatersheds with agricultural land use. Urbanization and agriculture are presumed to be the major environmental stressors affecting watershed condition of the Willamette River Basin.

Oregon↗

Mercury contamination and potential health risks to Arctic seabirds and shorebirds

Since the last Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) effort to review biological effects of mercury (Hg) on Arctic biota in 2011 and 2018, there has been a considerable number of new Arctic bird studies. This review article provides contemporary Hg exposure and potential health risk for 36 Arctic seabird and shorebird species, representing a larger portion of the Arctic than during previous AMAP assessments now also including parts of the Russian Arctic. To assess risk to birds, we used Hg toxicity benchmarks established for blood and converted to egg, liver, and feather tissues. Several Arctic seabird populations showed Hg concentrations that exceeded toxicity benchmarks, with 50 % of individual birds exceeding the “no adverse health effect” level. In particular, 5 % of all studied birds were considered to be at moderate or higher risk to Hg toxicity. However, most seabirds (95 %) were generally at lower risk to Hg toxicity. The highest Hg contamination was observed in seabirds breeding in the western Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Most Arctic shorebirds exhibited low Hg concentrations, with approximately 45 % of individuals categorized at no risk, 2.5 % at high risk category, and no individual at severe risk. Although the majority Arctic-breeding seabirds and shorebirds appeared at lower risk to Hg toxicity, recent studies have reported deleterious effects of Hg on some pituitary hormones, genotoxicity, and reproductive performance. Adult survival appeared unaffected by Hg exposure, although long-term banding studies incorporating Hg are still limited. Although Hg contamination across the Arctic is considered low for most bird species, Hg in combination with other stressors, including other contaminants, diseases, parasites, and climate change, may still cause adverse effects. Future investigations on the global impact of Hg on Arctic birds should be conducted within a multi-stressor framework. This information helps to address Article 22 (Effectiveness Evaluation) of the Minamata Convention on Mercury as a global pollutant.

Science of the Total Environment↗

Primary modes and predictability of year-to-year snowpack variations in the Western United States from teleconnections with Pacific Ocean climate

Snowpack, as measured on 1 April, is the primary source of warm-season streamflow for most of the western United States and thus represents an important source of water supply. An understanding of climate factors that influence the variability of this water supply and thus its predictability is important for water resource management. In this study, principal component analysis is used to identify the primary modes of 1 April snowpack variability in the western United States. Two components account for 61% of the total snowpack variability in the western United States. Relations between these modes of variability and indices of Pacific Ocean climate [e.g., the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and Nin??o-3 sea surface temperatures (SSTs)] are examined. The first mode of snowpack variability is closely associated with the PDO, whereas the second mode varies in concert with both the PDO and Nin??o-3 SSTs. Because these atmospheric-oceanic conditions change slowly from season to season, the observed teleconnections between the Pacific Ocean climate and 1 April snowpack may be useful to forecast 1 April snowpack using data that describe the Pacific Ocean climate in the previous summer and autumn seasons, especially for the northwestern United States.

Journal of Hydrometeorology↗

Migration and stopover strategies of individual Dunlin along the Pacific coast of North America

We radio-marked 18 Dunlin, Calidris alpina (L., 1758), at San Francisco Bay, California, and 11 Dunlin at Grays Harbor, Washington, and relocated 90% of them along the 4200 km long coastline from north of San Francisco Bay to the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska. The Copper River Delta, Alaska, was the single most important stopover site, with 79% of the marked birds detected there. Our second most important site was the Willapa Bay and Grays Harbor complex of wetlands in Washington. The mean length of stay past banding sites ranged from 1.0 to 3.8 days. Controlling for date of departure, birds banded at San Francisco Bay had higher rates of travel to the Copper River Delta than those banded at Grays Harbor. The later a bird left a capture site, the faster it traveled to the Copper River Delta. Length of stay at the Copper River Delta was inversely related to arrival date. We did not find any effect of sex on travel rate or length of stay. Combining the results of this study with our previous work on Western Sandpipers, Calidris mauri (Cabanis, 1875), reveals variation of migration strategies used within and among shorebird species along the eastern Pacific Flyway. ?? 2004 NRC.

Canadian Journal of Zoology↗

An intercomparison of oceanic methane and nitrous oxide measurements

Large-scale climatic forcing is impacting oceanic biogeochemical cycles and is expected to influence the water-column distribution of trace gases, including methane and nitrous oxide. Our ability as a scientific community to evaluate changes in the water-column inventories of methane and nitrous oxide depends largely on our capacity to obtain robust and accurate concentration measurements that can be validated across different laboratory groups. This study represents the first formal international intercomparison of oceanic methane and nitrous oxide measurements whereby participating laboratories received batches of seawater samples from the subtropical Pacific Ocean and the Baltic Sea. Additionally, compressed gas standards from the same calibration scale were distributed to the majority of participating laboratories to improve the analytical accuracy of the gas measurements. The computations used by each laboratory to derive the dissolved gas concentrations were also evaluated for inconsistencies (e.g., pressure and temperature corrections, solubility constants). The results from the intercomparison and intercalibration provided invaluable insights into methane and nitrous oxide measurements. It was observed that analyses of seawater samples with the lowest concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide had the lowest precisions. In comparison, while the analytical precision for samples with the highest concentrations of trace gases was better, the variability between the different laboratories was higher: 36 % for methane and 27 % for nitrous oxide. In addition, the comparison of different batches of seawater samples with methane and nitrous oxide concentrations that ranged over an order of magnitude revealed the ramifications of different calibration procedures for each trace gas. Finally, this study builds upon the intercomparison results to develop recommendations for improving oceanic methane and nitrous oxide measurements, with the aim of precluding future analytical discrepancies between laboratories.

Biogeosciences↗

The Japan Trench and its juncture with the Kuril Trench: cruise results of the Kaiko project, Leg 3

This paper presents the results of a detailed survey combining Seabeam mapping, gravity and geomagnetic measurements as well as single-channel seismic reflection observations in the Japan Trench and the juncture with the Kuril Trench during the French-Japanese Kaiko project (northern sector of the Leg 3) on the R/V “Jean Charcot”. The main data acquired during the cruise, such as the Seabeam maps, magnetic anomalies pattern, and preliminary interpretations are discussed. These new data cover an area of 18,000 km 2 and provide for the first time a detailed three-dimensional image of the Japan Trench. Combined with the previous results, the data indicate new structural interpretations. A comparative study of Seabeam morphology, single-channel and reprocessed multichannel records lead to the conclusion that along the northern Japan Trench there is little evidence of accretion but, instead, a tectonic erosion of the overriding plate. The tectonic pattern on the oceanic side of the trench is controlled by the creation of new normal faults parallel to the Japan Trench axis, which is a direct consequence of the downward flexure of the Pacific plate. In addition to these new faults, ancient normal faults trending parallel to the N65° oceanic magnetic anomalies and oblique to the Japan trench axis are reactivated, so that two directions of normal faulting are observed seaward of the Japan Trench. Only one direction of faulting is observed seaward of the Kuril Trench because of the parallelism between the trench axis and the magnetic anomalies. The convergent front of the Kuril Trench is offset left-laterally by 20 km relative to those of the Japan Trench. This transform fault and the lower slope of the southernmost Kuril Trench are represented by very steep scarps more than 2 km high. Slightly south of the juncture, the Erimo Seamount riding on the Pacific plate, is now entering the subduction zone. It has been preceded by at least another seamount as revealed by magnetic anomalies across the landward slope of the trench. Deeper future studies will be necessary to discriminate between the two following hypothesis about the origin of the curvature between both trenches: Is it due to the collision of an already subducted chain of seamounts? or does it correspond to one of the failure lines of the America/Eurasia plate boundary?

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

Cryptic extinction of a common Pacific lizard Emoia impar (Squamata, Scincidae) from the Hawaiian Islands.

Most documented declines of tropical reptiles are of dramatic or enigmatic species. Declines of widespread species tend to be cryptic. The early (1900s) decline and extinction of the common Pacific skink Emoia impar from the Hawaiian Islands is documented here through an assessment of literature, museum vouchers and recent fieldwork. This decline appears contemporaneous with the documented declines of invertebrates and birds across the Hawaiian Islands. A review of the plausible causal factors indicates that the spread of the introduced big-headed ant Pheidole megacephala is the most likely factor in this lizard decline. The introduction and spread of a similar skink Lampropholis delicata across the islands appears to temporally follow the decline of E. impar , although there is no evidence of competition between these species. It appears that L. delicata is spreading to occupy the niche vacated by the extirpated E. impar . Further confusion exists because the skink E. cyanura , which is very similar in appearance to E. impar , appears to have been introduced to one site within a hotel on Kaua'i and persisted as a population at that site for approximately 2 decades (1970s–1990s) but is now also extirpated. This study highlights the cryptic nature of this early species extinction as evidence that current biogeographical patterns of non-charismatic or enigmatic reptiles across the Pacific may be the historical result of early widespread invasion by ants. Conservation and restoration activities for reptiles in the tropical Pacific should consider this possibility and evaluate all evidence prior to any implementation.

Hawai'i↗

Molecular identification of erythrocytic necrosis virus (ENV) from the blood of Pacific herring ( Clupea pallasii )

Viral erythrocytic necrosis (VEN) is a condition affecting the red blood cells of more than 20 species of marine and anadromous fishes in the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans. Among populations of Pacific herring ( Clupea pallasii ) on the west coast of North America the disease causes anemia and elevated mortality in periodic epizootics. Presently, VEN is diagnosed by observation of typical cytoplasmic inclusion bodies in stained blood smears from infected fish. The causative agent, erythrocytic necrosis virus (ENV), is unculturable and a presumed iridovirus by electron microscopy. In vivo amplification of the virus in pathogen-free laboratory stocks of Pacific herring with subsequent virus concentration, purification, DNA extraction, and high-throughput sequencing were used to obtain genomic ENV sequences. Fragments with the highest sequence identity to the family Iridoviridae were used to design four sets of ENV-specific polymerase chain reaction (PCR) primers. Testing of blood and tissue samples from experimentally and wild infected Pacific herring as well as DNA extracted from other amphibian and piscine iridoviruses verified the assays were specific to ENV with a limit of detection of 0.0003 ng. Preliminary phylogenetic analyses of a 1448 bp fragment of the putative DNA polymerase gene supported inclusion of ENV in a proposed sixth genus of the family Iridoviridae that contains other erythrocytic viruses from ectothermic hosts. This study provides the first molecular evidence of ENV's inclusion within the Iridoviridae family and offers conventional PCR assays as a means of rapidly surveying the ENV-status of wild and propagated Pacific herring stocks.

Veterinary Microbiology↗

Lake oxygen isotopes as recorders of North American Rocky Mountain hydroclimate: Holocene patterns and variability at multi-decadal to millennial time scales

Lake sediment oxygen isotope records (calcium carbonate-δ 18 O) in the western North American Cordillera developed during the past decade provide substantial evidence of Pacific ocean–atmosphere forcing of hydroclimatic variability during the Holocene. Here we present an overview of 18 lake sediment δ 18 O records along with a new compilation of lake water δ 18 O and δ 2 H that are used to characterize lake sediment sensitivity to precipitation-δ 18 O in contrast to fractionation by evaporation. Of the 18 records, 14 have substantial sensitivity to evaporation. Two records reflect precipitation-δ 18 O since the middle Holocene, Jellybean and Bison Lakes, and are geographically positioned in the northern and southern regions of the study area. Their comparative analysis indicates a sequence of time-varying north–south precipitation-δ 18 O patterns that is evidence for a highly non-stationary influence by Pacific ocean–atmosphere processes on the hydroclimate of western North America. These observations are discussed within the context of previous research on North Pacific precipitation-δ 18 O based on empirical and modeling methods. The Jellybean and Bison Lake records indicate that a prominent precipitation-δ 18 O dipole (enriched-north and depleted-south) was sustained between ~ 3.5 and 1.5 ka, which contrasts with earlier Holocene patterns, and appears to indicate the onset of a dominant tropical control on North Pacific ocean–atmosphere dynamics. This remains the state of the system today. Higher frequency reversals of the north–south precipitation-δ 18 O dipole between ~ 2.5 and 1.5 ka, and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, also suggest more varieties of Pacific ocean–atmosphere modes than a single Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) type analogue. Results indicate that further investigation of precipitation-δ 18 O patterns on short (observational) and long (Holocene) time scales is needed to improve our understanding of the processes that drive regional precipitation-δ 18 O responses to Pacific ocean–atmosphere variability, which in turn, will lead to a better understanding of internal Pacific ocean–atmosphere variability and its response to external climate forcing mechanisms.

North American Rocky Mountain↗

Probabilistic analysis of tsunami hazards

Determining the likelihood of a disaster is a key component of any comprehensive hazard assessment. This is particularly true for tsunamis, even though most tsunami hazard assessments have in the past relied on scenario or deterministic type models. We discuss probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) from the standpoint of integrating computational methods with empirical analysis of past tsunami runup. PTHA is derived from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), with the main difference being that PTHA must account for far-field sources. The computational methods rely on numerical tsunami propagation models rather than empirical attenuation relationships as in PSHA in determining ground motions. Because a number of source parameters affect local tsunami runup height, PTHA can become complex and computationally intensive. Empirical analysis can function in one of two ways, depending on the length and completeness of the tsunami catalog. For site-specific studies where there is sufficient tsunami runup data available, hazard curves can primarily be derived from empirical analysis, with computational methods used to highlight deficiencies in the tsunami catalog. For region-wide analyses and sites where there are little to no tsunami data, a computationally based method such as Monte Carlo simulation is the primary method to establish tsunami hazards. Two case studies that describe how computational and empirical methods can be integrated are presented for Acapulco, Mexico (site-specific) and the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline (region-wide analysis).

Natural Hazards↗