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USGS2016

Selenium: Mercury molar ratios in freshwater fish in the Columbia River Basin: Potential applications for specific fish consumption advisories

Fish provide a valuable source of beneficial nutrients and are an excellent source of low fat protein. However, fish are also the primary source of methylmercury exposure in humans. Selenium often co-occurs with mercury and there is some evidence that selenium can protect against mercury toxicity yet States issue fish consumption advisories based solely on the risks that methylmercury pose to human health. Recently, it has been suggested the selenium: mercury molar ratio be considered in risk management. In order for agencies to utilize the ratio to set consumption guidelines, it is important to evaluate the variability in selenium and mercury in different fish species. We examined 10 different freshwater fish species found within the Columbia River Basin in order to determine the inter- and intra-specific variability in the selenium: mercury molar ratios and the selenium health benefit values. We found significant variation in selenium: mercury molar ratios. The mean molar ratios for each species were all above 1:1, ranging from 3.42:1 in Walleye to 27.2:1 in Chinook salmon. There was a positive correlation between both mercury and selenium with length for each fish species apart from yellow perch and rainbow trout. All species had health benefit values greater than 2. We observed considerable variability in selenium: mercury molar ratios within fish species collected in the Columbia River Basin. Although incorporating selenium: mercury molar ratios into fish consumption holds the potential for refining advisories and assessing the risk of methylmercury exposure, the current understanding of how these ratios apply is insufficient, and further understanding of drivers of variability in the ratios is needed.

Biological Trace Element Research↗

USGS2012

Genetic population substructure in bison at Yellowstone National Park

The Yellowstone National Park bison herd is 1 of only 2 populations known to have continually persisted on their current landscape since pre-Columbian times. Over the last century, the census size of this herd has fluctuated from around 100 individuals to over 3000 animals. Previous studies involving radiotelemetry, tooth wear, and parturition timing provide evidence of at least 2 distinct groups of bison within Yellowstone National Park. To better understand the biology of Yellowstone bison, we investigated the potential for limited gene flow across this population using multilocus Bayesian clustering analysis. Two genetically distinct and clearly defined subpopulations were identified based on both genotypic diversity and allelic distributions. Genetic cluster assignments were highly correlated with sampling locations for a subgroup of live capture individuals. Furthermore, a comparison of the cluster assignments to the 2 principle winter cull sites revealed critical differences in migration patterns across years. The 2 Yellowstone subpopulations display levels of differentiation that are only slightly less than that between populations which have been geographically and reproductively isolated for over 40 years. The identification of cryptic population subdivision and genetic differentiation of this magnitude highlights the importance of this biological phenomenon in the management of wildlife species.

Journal of Heredity↗

USGS1983

Multiple microtektite horizons in upper Eocene marine sediments: No evidence for mass extinctions

Microtektites have been recovered from three horizons in eight middle Eocene to middle Oligocene marine sediment sequences. Five of these occurrences are coeval and of latest Eocene age (37.5 to 38.0 million years ago); three are coeval and of early late Eocene age (38.5 to 39.5 million years ago); and three are of middle Oligocene age (31 to 32 million years ago). In addition, rare probable microtektites have been found in sediments with ages of about 36.0 to 36.5 million years. The microtektite horizon at 37.5 to 38.0 million years can be correlated with the North American tektite-strewn field, which has a fission track age (minimum) of 34 to 35 million years and a paleomagnetic age of 37.5 to 38.0 million years. There is no evidence for mass faunal extinctions at any of the microtektite horizons. Many of the distinct faunal changes that occurred in the middle Eocene to middle Oligocene can be related to the formation of the Antarctic ice sheet and the associated cooling phenomena and intensification of bottom currents that led to large-scale dissolution of calcium carbonate and erosion, which created areally extensive hiatuses in the deep-sea sediment records. The occurrence of microtektite horizons of several ages and the lack of evidence for faunal extinctions suggest that the effects of extraterrestrial bolide impacts may be unimportant in the biologic realm during middle Eocene to middle Oligocene time.

Science↗

USGS2018

Fertility of the early post-eruptive surfaces of Kasatochi Island volcano

In the four years after the 2008 eruption and burial of Kasatochi Island volcano, erosion and the return of bird activity have resulted in new and altered land surfaces and initiation of ecosystem recovery. We examined fertility characteristics of the recently deposited pyroclastic surfaces, patches of legacy pre-eruptive surface soil (LS), and a post-eruptive surface with recent bird roosting activity. Pyroclastic materials were found lacking in N, but P, K, and other macronutrients were in sufficient supply for plants. Erosion and leaching are moving mobile P and Fe downslope to deposition fan areas. Legacy soil patches that currently support plants have available-N at levels (10–22 mg N kg -1 ) similar to those added by birds in a recent bird roosting area. Roosting increased surface available N from <1 mg N kg -1 in the new pyroclastic surfaces to up to 42 mg N kg -1 and increased soil biological respiration of CO 2 from essentially zero to a level about 40% that of the LS surface. Laboratory plant growth trials using Lupinus nootkatensis and Leymus mollis indicated that the influence of eroded and redeposited LS in amounts as little as 10% by volume mixed with new pyroclastic materials could aid plant recovery by supplying vital N and soil biota to plants as propagules are introduced to the new surface. Erosion-exposure of fertile pre-eruptive soils and erosion-mixing of pre-eruptive soils with newly erupted materials, along with inputs of nutrients from bird activities, each will exert significant influences on the surface fertility and recovery pattern of the new post-eruptive Kasatochi volcano. For this environment, these influences could help to speed recovery of a more diverse plant community by providing N (LS and bird inputs) as alternatives to relying most heavily on N-fixing plants to build soil fertility.

Alaska↗

USGS2008

U.S. Geological Survey Science Support Strategy for Biscayne National Park and Surrounding Areas in Southeastern Florida

The U.S. Geological Survey conducts a wide range of research in and around the Biscayne National Park region of southern Florida. This research encompasses the biologic, ecologic, meteorologic, geologic, and hydrologic components of the system, including water-quality analyses, ground-water modeling, hydrogeologic-data collection, ecologic-habitat evaluations, wetlands characterizations, biogeochemistry of ecosystems, and paleo-ecologic analyses. Relevant information is provided herein for researchers and managers interested in the Biscayne Bay area and about current U.S. Geological Survey efforts that address important resource protection and management issues. Specifically, managers and scientists are provided with information on current and recently completed U.S. Geological Survey projects and a sample listing of potential U.S. Geological Survey research projects addressing relevant issues that face the study area.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2021

Multi-taxa database data dictionary

The conservation of biological resources relies on the successful management of ecological and physiological research data. The Western Ecological Research Center of the U.S. Geological Survey is working with researchers, land managers, and decision makers from non-government organizations and city, county, state, and federal resource agencies to develop data management methods. Access to the most current and applicable research data available in making sound decisions to conserve species diversity is foundational. We sought to accomplish several goals in developing the data management strategy used in the Multi-Taxa database. Data persistence and availability are primary goals of well-developed databases. By documenting and sharing the structure and definitions of Multi-Taxa database, we hope to further the successful management of these crucial data.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS2024

How much trapping effort is needed for early detection of European green crab?

We present a case study using trapping data and species accumulation theory to assess the sampling effort needed to detect species that are rare in habitats sampled as part of the management of invasive European green crab Carcinus maenas on the coast of Washington State and Salish Sea shorelines, such as is desired for early detection of invasive species. In response to detections of green crab on the west coast of North America monitoring efforts, including early detection monitoring, have increased. The goal of invasive species early detection monitoring programs is to detect new infestations soon after introduction so that eradication and quarantine measures can be used to control their spread. However, detection of newly introduced invasive species often occurs after populations are large and well established. The ability to detect newly introduced invasive species is affected by sampling procedures, including how much effort is expended. To assess the level of trapping effort needed to detect green crab and other taxa when they are rare, we calculate sample-based rarefaction curves, total species richness, and estimates of sample completeness. We then use these estimates to describe the relationship between sampling effort and detection at two different spatial scales. Our results suggest that high probability early detection of green crabs or other rare taxa in many coastal waterbodies will require significantly more trapping effort than was expended in 2020. Our analyses further suggest that the effort required to provide for early detection was less at the site-specific spatial scale than at the waterbody scale. However, sample completeness at the site-specific spatial scale was negatively correlated with species richness. Current efforts to look for new green crab populations and to manage existing populations provide an opportunity to look for other invasive organisms that may establish in similar habitats.

Washington↗

USGS2025

A framework for guiding management decisions for amphibians in an uncertain future

Managing species in a rapidly changing climate requires knowledge of how species will respond to climate change and other threats while simultaneously developing management actions to reduce threats. Amphibians are one of the most threatened taxa on earth and often serve as the ‘canary in the coalmine’ for the health of ecosystems that countless other species and humans rely on. To understand the status of and guide management for the boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas boreas), an imperiled amphibian species in the North Central region, we coproduced several products with the Boreal Toad Conservation Team. These products included 1) reconstructed seasonal hydrology patterns for historical boreal toad breeding wetlands and high elevation watersheds in the Southern Rocky Mountain Region (SRMR) from remotely sensed data, 2) current and future predictions of drying rates for historical breeding wetlands, 3) current and future predictions on the status of the boreal toad in the SRMR, and 4) a web tool to guide management actions. While the boreal toad is considered a ‘data rich’ species given data collection efforts that span multiple decades, many amphibian species are considered ‘data poor’, meaning managers lack data on the biology, ecology, or status of the species needed to make sound decisions. To address this knowledge gap, we also quantified drying patterns across watersheds for two ‘data poor’ species in the North Central region at risk from climate change: the Great Basin spadefoot toad ( Spea intermontana ) and the wood frog ( Lithobates sylvaticus ). These new data can guide management decisions for these species by allowing managers to understand habitat changes with respect to water availability, a crucial element for amphibian survival and persistence. Together, these products demonstrate how cutting-edge technology and analytical methods can produce a range of useful information to support amphibian conservation.

Colorado, New Mexico, Wyoming↗

USGS2019

Bioavailable iron production in airborne mineral dust: Controls by chemical composition and solar flux

A large part of oceanic biological production is limited by the scarcity of dissolved iron. Mineral dust aerosol , processed under acidic atmospheric conditions , is the primary natural source of bioavailable iron to oceanic life. However, synergistic and antagonistic effects of non-Fe-containing minerals on atmospheric processing of Fe-containing minerals and Fe solubilization are poorly understood. The current study focuses on mineralogical influences of non-Fe-bearing semiconductor minerals, such as titanium dioxide (TiO 2 ), on the dissolution of iron in selected natural mineral dust aerosols under atmospherically relevant conditions. Further, the role of elevated Ti concentrations in dust is evaluated using magnetite , a proxy for Fe(II) containing minerals, under both dark and light conditions. Our results highlight that relatively higher Ti:Fe ratios, regardless of their total Fe content, enhances the total iron dissolution in mineral dust aerosols as well as in magnetite. Moreover, elevated Ti percentages also yield high Fe(II) fractions in mineral dust systems under dark conditions. Upon irradiation however, dissolved Fe(II) is suppressed by high Ti levels due to the involvement of photochemical redox cycling reactions with hydroxyl radicals ( • OH). These synergistic and antagonistic effects of Ti are further evaluated by altering the chemical composition of natural dusts with artificially added anatase (TiO 2 ) and synthetic amorphous titania . The current study reveals important mineralogical controls by non-Fe-bearing minerals on dust iron dissolution to better understand global iron mobilization.

Atmospheric Environment↗

USGS2013

Development of a Fluvial Egg Drift Simulator to evaluate the transport and dispersion of Asian carp eggs in rivers

Asian carp are migrating towards the Great Lakes and are threatening to invade this ecosystem, hence there is an immediate need to control their population. The transport of Asian carp eggs in potential spawning rivers is an important factor in its life history and recruitment success. An understanding of the transport, development, and fate of Asian carp eggs has the potential to create prevention, management, and control strategies before the eggs hatch and develop the ability to swim. However, there is not a clear understanding of the hydrodynamic conditions at which the eggs are transported and kept in suspension. This knowledge is imperative because of the current assumption that suspension is required for the eggs to survive. Herein, FluEgg (Fluvial Egg Drift Simulator), a three-dimensional Lagrangian model capable of evaluating the influence of flow velocity, shear dispersion and turbulent diffusion on the transport and dispersal patterns of Asian carp eggs is presented. The model's variables include not only biological behavior (growth rate, density changes) but also the physical characteristics of the flow field, such as mean velocities and eddy diffusivities. The performance of the FluEgg model was evaluated using observed data from published flume experiments conducted in China with water-hardened Asian carp eggs as subjects. FluEgg simulations show a good agreement with the experimental data. The model was also run with observed data from the Sandusky River in Ohio to provide a real-world demonstration case. This research will support the identification of critical hydrodynamic conditions (e.g., flow velocity, depth, and shear velocity) to maintain eggs in suspension, assist in the evaluation of suitable spawning rivers for Asian carp populations and facilitate the development of prevention, control and management strategies for Asian carp species in rivers and water bodies.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2015

Large-scale dam removal on the Elwha River, Washington, USA: coastal geomorphic change

Two dams on the Elwha River, Washington State, USA trapped over 20 million m 3 of mud, sand, and gravel since 1927, reducing downstream sediment fluxes and contributing to erosion of the river's coastal delta. The removal of the Elwha and Glines Canyon dams, initiated in September 2011, induced massive increases in river sediment supply and provided an unprecedented opportunity to examine the geomorphic response of a coastal delta to these increases. Detailed measurements of beach topography and nearshore bathymetry show that ~ 2.5 million m 3 of sediment was deposited during the first two years of dam removal, which is ~ 100 times greater than deposition rates measured prior to dam removal. The majority of the deposit was located in the intertidal and shallow subtidal region immediately offshore of the river mouth and was composed of sand and gravel. Additional areas of deposition include a secondary sandy deposit to the east of the river mouth and a muddy deposit west of the mouth. A comparison with fluvial sediment fluxes suggests that ~ 70% of the sand and gravel and ~ 6% of the mud supplied by the river was found in the survey area (within about 2 km of the mouth). A hydrodynamic and sediment transport model, validated with in-situ measurements, shows that tidal currents interacting with the larger relict submarine delta help disperse fine sediment large distances east and west of the river mouth. The model also suggests that waves and currents erode the primary deposit located near the river mouth and transport sandy sediment eastward to form the secondary deposit. Though most of the substrate of the larger relict submarine delta was unchanged during the first two years of dam removal, portions of the seafloor close to the river mouth became finer, modifying habitats for biological communities. These results show that river restoration, like natural changes in river sediment supply, can result in rapid and substantial coastal geomorphological responses.

Washington↗

USGS2011

OBIS-USA: a data-sharing legacy of the census of marine life

The United States Geological Survey's Biological Informatics Program hosts OBIS-USA, the US node of the Ocean Biogeographic Information System (OBIS). OBIS-USA gathers, coordinates, applies standard formats to, and makeswidely available data on biological collections in marine waters of the United States and other areas where US investigators have collected data and, in some instances, specimens. OBIS-USA delivers its data to OBIS international, which then delivers its data to the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and other Web portals for marine biodiversity data. OBIS-USA currently has 145 data sets from 36 participants, representing over 6.5 million occurrence records of over 83,000 taxa from more than 888,000 locations. OBIS-USA, a legacy of the decade-long (2001-2010) international collaborative Census of Marine Life enterprise, continues to add data, including those from ongoing Census projects. Among the many challenges in creating OBIS, including OBIS-USA, were developing a community of trust and shared valueamong data providers, and demonstrating to providers the value of making their data accessible to others. Challenges also posed by the diversity of data sets relevant tomarine biodiversity stored on thousands of computers, in a variety of formats, not all widely accessible, have been met in OBIS-USA by implementing a uniform standard and publishing platform that is easily accessible to a broad range of users.

Oceanography↗

USGS2015

Final project memorandum: sea-level rise modeling handbook: resource guide for resource managers, engineers, and scientists

Coastal wetlands of the Southeastern United States are undergoing retreat and migration from increasing tidal inundation and saltwater intrusion attributed to climate variability and sea-level rise. Much of the literature describing potential sea-level rise projections and modeling predictions are found in peer-reviewed academic journals or government technical reports largely suited to reading by other Ph.D. scientists who are more familiar or engaged in the climate change debate. Various sea-level rise and coastal wetland models have been developed and applied of different designs and scales of spatial and temporal complexity for predicting habitat and environmental change that have not heretofore been synthesized to aid natural resource managers of their utility and limitations. Training sessions were conducted with Federal land managers with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, and NOAA National Estuarine Research Reserves as well as state partners and nongovernmental organizations across the northern Gulf Coast from Florida to Texas to educate and to evaluate user needs and understanding of concepts, data, and modeling tools for projecting sea-level rise and its impact on coastal habitats and wildlife. As a result, this handbook was constructed from these training and feedback sessions with coastal managers and biologists of published decision-support tools and simulation models for sea-level rise and climate change assessments. A simplified tabular context was developed listing the various kinds of decision-support tools and ecological models along with criteria to distinguish the source, scale, and quality of information input and geographic data sets, physical and biological constraints and relationships, datum characteristics of water and land elevation components, utility options for setting sea-level rise and climate change scenarios, and ease or difficulty of storing, displaying, or interpreting model output. The handbook is designed to be a primer to understanding sea-level rise and a practical synthesis of the current state of knowledge and modeling tools as a resource guide for DOl land management needs and facilitating Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) research and conservation initiatives.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2017

Forecasted range shifts of arid-land fishes in response to climate change

Climate change is poised to alter the distributional limits, center, and size of many species. Traits may influence different aspects of range shifts, with trophic generality facilitating shifts at the leading edge, and greater thermal tolerance limiting contractions at the trailing edge. The generality of relationships between traits and range shifts remains ambiguous however, especially for imperiled fishes residing in xeric riverscapes. Our objectives were to quantify contemporary fish distributions in the Lower Colorado River Basin, forecast climate change by 2085 using two general circulation models, and quantify shifts in the limits, center, and size of fish elevational ranges according to fish traits. We examined relationships among traits and range shift metrics either singly using univariate linear modeling or combined with multivariate redundancy analysis. We found that trophic and dispersal traits were associated with shifts at the leading and trailing edges, respectively, although projected range shifts were largely unexplained by traits. As expected, piscivores and omnivores with broader diets shifted upslope most at the leading edge while more specialized invertivores exhibited minimal changes. Fishes that were more mobile shifted upslope most at the trailing edge, defying predictions. No traits explained changes in range center or size. Finally, current preference explained multivariate range shifts, as fishes with faster current preferences exhibited smaller multivariate changes. Although range shifts were largely unexplained by traits, more specialized invertivorous fishes with lower dispersal propensity or greater current preference may require the greatest conservation efforts because of their limited capacity to shift ranges under climate change.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries↗

USGS2016

Predicting tree biomass growth in the temperate-boreal ecotone: is tree size, age, competition or climate response most important?

As global temperatures rise, variation in annual climate is also changing, with unknown consequences for forest biomes. Growing forests have the ability to capture atmospheric CO 2 and thereby slow rising CO 2 concentrations. Forests’ ongoing ability to sequester C depends on how tree communities respond to changes in climate variation. Much of what we know about tree and forest response to climate variation comes from tree-ring records. Yet typical tree-ring datasets and models do not capture the diversity of climate responses that exist within and among trees and species. We address this issue using a model that estimates individual tree response to climate variables while accounting for variation in individuals’ size, age, competitive status, and spatially structured latent covariates. Our model allows for inference about variance within and among species. We quantify how variables influence aboveground biomass growth of individual trees from a representative sample of 15 northern or southern tree species growing in a transition zone between boreal and temperate biomes. Individual trees varied in their growth response to fluctuating mean annual temperature and summer moisture stress. The variation among individuals within a species was wider than mean differences among species. The effects of mean temperature and summer moisture stress interacted, such that warm years produced positive responses to summer moisture availability and cool years produced negative responses. As climate models project significant increases in annual temperatures, growth of species like Acer saccharum , Quercus rubra , and Picea glauca will vary more in response to summer moisture stress than in the past. The magnitude of biomass growth variation in response to annual climate was 92–95% smaller than responses to tree size and age. This means that measuring or predicting the physical structure of current and future forests could tell us more about future C dynamics than growth responses related to climate change alone.

Minnesota↗

USGS2017

Ontogenetic and ecological variation in invasion risk of Brown Treesnakes (Boiga irregularis) on Guam

Size structure within populations of invasive species may have consequences for relative risk at all stages of the invasion process, with implications for management interventions such as interdiction, suppression, and eradication. To assess relative distributions of invasive Brown Treesnakes among demographic categories of management interest, we undertook the most comprehensive and controlled sampling in >25 years of research into this ecologically and economically destructive introduced predator. We collected a seasonally-balanced sample of 100 snakes from each of 18 sites, stratified by six habitat types, encompassing the species’ entire extralimital range. Samples indicated significant differences in distributions of female and male snakes among management classes (juvenile, transitional, and mature) by site and habitat. We found substantial heterogeneity in localized population characteristics over relatively small geographic distances, only modest influence of habitat type, higher prevalence of reproductively mature snakes in savanna and urban habitats, and an alarmingly high proportion of snakes that are too small to be effectively targeted by current rodent-baited control tools (mean = 38.2%, range = 19 to 72%). Failure to account for such variability in high risk demographic fractions may hinder successful interventions.

Guam↗

USGS1999

Fire and aquatic ecosystems in forested biomes of North America

Synthesis of the literature suggests that physical, chemical, and biological elements of a watershed interact with long‐term climate to influence fire regime, and that these factors, in concordance with the postfire vegetation mosaic, combine with local‐scale weather to govern the trajectory and magnitude of change following a fire event. Perturbation associated with hydrological processes is probably the primary factor influencing postfire persistence of fishes, benthic macroinvertebrates, and diatoms in fluvial systems. It is apparent that salmonids have evolved strategies to survive perturbations occurring at the frequency of wildland fires (10°–10 2 years), but local populations of a species may be more ephemeral. Habitat alteration probably has the greatest impact on individual organisms and local populations that are the least mobile, and reinvasion will be most rapid by aquatic organisms with high mobility. It is becoming increasingly apparent that during the past century fire suppression has altered fire regimes in some vegetation types, and consequently, the probability of large stand‐replacing fires has increased in those areas. Current evidence suggests, however, that even in the case of extensive high‐severity fires, local extirpation of fishes is patchy, and recolonization is rapid. Lasting detrimental effects on fish populations have been limited to areas where native populations have declined and become increasingly isolated because of anthropogenic activities. A strategy of protecting robust aquatic communities and restoring aquatic habitat structure and life history complexity in degraded areas may be the most effective means for insuring the persistence of native biota where the probability of large‐scale fires has increased.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

USGS2021

Toward improved decision-support tools for Delta Smelt management actions

The Collaborative Science and Adaptive Management Program (CSAMP) has endorsed a goal of reversing the recent downward trajectory of the Delta Smelt population within 5-10 generations, with the long-term aim of establishing a self-sustaining population. An ambitious agenda of management actions is planned, and more management actions are being considered. This White Paper furthers one of the recommendations in the 2019 Delta Smelt Science Plan – the need to predict the potential ecological effects of taking a management action. Existing statistical models can be highly informative in assessing the response of Delta Smelt to changing system conditions and management actions. However, management actions can shift or alter conditions in ways that models based on analysis of historical data may not be able to represent, and short-term or localized effects may be missed with models designed to assess effects at the population level. Decision support tools (DSTs) are computer-based tools developed to assist decision-making, often combining computationally intensive analysis and spatial mapping of environmental relationships. DSTs can be used in planning processes that evaluate an array of actions, such as in Structured Decision Making (SDM), where DSTs are needed to compare among alternatives. DSTs can also be used to explore the potential effects of different approaches to implementing management actions. The goal of this White Paper is to identify plausible options for DSTs that could be developed for future use to evaluate management actions that seek to either reverse the decline of Delta Smelt or minimize or mitigate the effects of other water management actions. Different types of management actions lead to different needs for DSTs. This White Paper was developed using three types of actions currently being considered to enhance the Delta Smelt population: Supplementation with Hatchery Fish, Summer-Fall Habitat, and Food Enhancement actions. These three management actions target different parts of the estuary and different processes, with a variety of possible metrics to gauge performance. Three DSTs are proposed that collectively address management questions related to the management actions considered, with each requiring a slightly different set of processes to be included and producing an array of outputs at varying spatial and temporal scales: DST 1. Modeling Fish Movement, Survival, and Reproduction Across Their Range. This DST can address management questions that require information about Delta Smelt spatial distribution and movement. • DST 1 could be used to compare conditions with and without management actions in place, how the management action performs among different types of water years (with varied flow and associated abiotic conditions), and to assess relative change with different variations and strategies of the management actions. • DST 2. Changes in Habitat Conditions and Delta Smelt Response. This DST is intended to evaluate combinations of conditions that are considered to provide suitable habitat for Delta Smelt, and Delta Smelt response. Delta Smelt habitat is generally described as open water with low salinity (0 to 6), turbidity of at least 12 NTU, suitable temperature conditions, and sufficient food availability to support growth. • DST 3. Regional Effects of Food Subsidy. This DSTs seeks to evaluate effectiveness of food enhancement actions by providing information on responses of the immediate targets of the action (i.e., phytoplankton or zooplankton) and tracing those to projected growth responses of Delta Smelt. There is not a single DST that adequately addresses management questions relevant to all management actions, although there is some overlap in the management questions each of the three DSTs can address. For each of the DSTs a substantial foundation of models and approaches already exists and modeling has already been applied to several of the management actions described. However, a number of outstanding issues remain for further development of the proposed DSTs. These are summarized in this White Paper together with potential approaches that could be applied or tested. Some components for the DSTs are already available and thus development could be relatively easy. However, for several of the topics identified there are gaps in knowledge that currently limit formulation of model structure and process representations. This presents challenges to readily incorporate some needed mechanisms into the models. Eleven next steps, aligned with relevant DSTs, are outlined. The next steps vary in their complexity or technical ‘lift’ required. Many build on existing work, or methods and approaches that have already been developed or are underway, while others require additional thinking to establish a viable approach. Some interim utility for decisions could be gained during initial development of the DSTs with further features added over time. Development of a DST requires engagement of both managers and scientists. Identifying the outputs and resolution needed for management purposes early in development of any DST is essential for effective pursuit of next steps and suitable approaches to address challenges. Dialog between managers and technical experts also informs what process-based simulation can do, and what tradeoffs are acceptable to meet a given purpose. To further develop the DSTs outlined here for application in the estuary requires: - Engagement of a committed group of technical experts with appropriate expertise. - The development of a coordinated workplan including appropriate project management and tracking. - Dialog between potential users (i.e., managers and policy makers) and technical experts. - Resources to pursue DST development including personnel and computational resources. This White Paper demonstrates the potential for moving toward DSTs for a variety of management actions in support of Delta Smelt that include mechanistic representations of physical and biological processes. Through focused effort from technical experts, managers and policy makers, DSTs can be developed to provide quantitative predictions of management effects on the ecosystem, targeting the changes the management actions seek to achieve, how these effects compare to ambient conditions, and how the effects vary among water year types or with timing and location of actions. Importantly, solid foundations exist which can be leveraged, refined, and built upon to specifically inform current and future management decisions.

White Paper↗