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USGS2018

Influence of climate on alpine stream chemistry and water sources

The resilience of alpine/subalpine watersheds may be viewed as the resistance of streamflow or stream chemistry to change under varying climatic conditions, which is governed by the relative size (volume) and transit time of surface and subsurface water sources. Here, we use end‐member mixing analysis in Andrews Creek, an alpine stream in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, from water year 1994 to 2015, to explore how the partitioning of water sources and associated hydrologic resilience change in response to climate. Our results indicate that four water sources are significant contributors to Andrews Creek, including snow, rain, soil water, and talus groundwater. Seasonal patterns in source‐water contributions reflected the seasonal hydrologic cycle, which is driven by the accumulation and melting of seasonal snowpack. Flushing of soil water had a large effect on stream chemistry during spring snowmelt, despite making only a small contribution to streamflow volume. Snow had a large influence on stream chemistry as well, contributing large amounts of water with low concentrations of weathering products. Interannual patterns in end‐member contributions reflected responses to drought and wet periods. Moderate and significant correlations exist between annual end‐member contributions and regional‐scale climate indices (the Palmer Drought Severity Index, the Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index, and the Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index). From water year 1994 to 2015, the percent contribution from the talus‐groundwater end member to Andrews Creek increased an average of 0.5% per year (p < 0.0001), whereas the percent contributions from snow plus rain decreased by a similar amount (p = 0.001). Our results show how water and solute sources in alpine environments shift in response to climate variability and highlight the role of talus groundwater and soil water in providing hydrologic resilience to the system.

Colorado↗

USGS2010

The 23rd Pacific Climate Workshop (PACLIM)

The 23rd Pacific Climate Workshop (PACLIM) was held May 13–16, 2007 at the Asilomar Conference Grounds in Pacific Grove, California, in what turned out to be a relatively dry spring on the central California coast. What a change from 2006, which was the sixth wettest year of the 101 years for which records have been kept. The special session at the 2007 gathering was entitled “Abrupt Climate Change: Causes and Ecosystem Responses”, reflecting the increasing evidence for rapid climate shifts in marine and terrestrial environments.

California↗

USGS1996

Mapping playa evaporite minerals and associated sediments in Death Valley, California, with multispectral thermal infrared images

Efflorescent salt crusts and associated sediments in Death Valley, California, were studied with remote-sensing data acquired by the NASA thermal infrared multispectral scanner (TIMS). Nine spectral classes that represent a variety of surface materials were distinguished, including several classes that reflect important aspects of the playa groundwater chemistry and hydrology. Evaporite crusts containing abundant thenardite (sodium sulfate) were mapped along the northern and eastern margins of the Cottonball Basin, areas where the inflow waters are rich in sodium. Gypsum (calcium sulfate) crusts were more common in the Badwater Basin, particularly near springs associated with calcic groundwaters along the western basin margin. Evaporite-rich crusts generally marked areas where groundwater is periodically near the surface and thus able to replenish the crusts though capillary evaporation. Detrital silicate minerals were prevalent in other parts of the salt pan where shallow groundwater does not affect the surface composition. The surface features in Death Valley change in response to climatic variations on several different timescales. For example, salt crusts on low-lying mudflats form and redissolve during seasonal-to-interannual cycles of wetting and desiccation. In contrast, recent flooding and erosion of rough-salt surfaces in Death Valley probably reflect increased regional precipitation spanning several decades. Remote-sensing observations of playas can provide a means for monitoring changes in evaporite facies and for better understanding the associated climatic processes. At present, such studies are limited by the availability of suitable airborne scanner data. However, with the launch of the Earth Observing System (EOS) AM-1 Platform in 1998, multispectral visible/near-infrared and thermal infrared remote-sensing data will become globally available.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2025

Ecological scenarios: Embracing ecological uncertainty in an era of global change

Scenarios, or plausible characterizations of the future, can help natural resource stewards plan and act under uncertainty. Current methods for developing scenarios for climate change adaptation planning are often focused on exploring uncertainties in future climate, but new approaches are needed to better represent uncertainties in ecological responses. Scenarios that characterize how ecological changes may unfold in response to climate and describe divergent and surprising ecological outcomes can help natural resource stewards recognize signs of nascent ecological transformation and identify opportunities to intervene. Here, we offer principles and approaches for more fully integrating ecological uncertainties into the development of future scenarios. We provide examples of how specific qualitative and quantitative methods can be used to explore variation in ecological responses to a given climate future. We further highlight opportunities for ecological researchers to generate actionable projections that capture uncertainty in both climatic and ecological change in meaningful and manageable ways to support climate change adaptation decision making.

Nebraska↗

USGS2022

Pathways of productivity and influences on top consumers in forested streams

Forested stream ecosystems involve complex physical and biotic pathways that can influence fish in numerous ways. Consequently, the responses of fish communities to disturbance can be difficult to understand. In this study, we employed a food web model that links biotic (e.g., physiology, predator–prey interactions) and abiotic (e.g., temperature, sunlight) attributes to address fish responses to changes in stream-riparian ecosystems. We modeled responses to food web dynamics in four streams, using scenarios that included responses to riparian disturbance, climate change, and shifts in top consumers. The two consumers we focused on were coastal cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii ) and sculpin ( Cottus spp., collectively treated as a functional group) . We found the responses to environmental changes varied by fish species and among streams, and that responses were not independent due to exploitative interspecific competition. Simulations based on long-term data indicated that coastal cutthroat trout were responsive to changes in allochthonous resources including terrestrial detritus and invertebrates, whereas sculpin were more responsive to changes to autochthonous resources that included, periphyton and aquatic invertebrates. These results may be, in part, a consequence of species-specific foraging behavior. Trout have a higher propensity to drift feed and therefore receive a substantial subsidy from terrestrial invertebrates, whereas sculpin feed mostly on aquatic insects on the streambed. Simulations of changes in summer temperature and stream discharge suggest decreased biomass of both fish species because of physiological constraints on invertebrate prey which reduce fish foraging opportunities. Exploitative competition also may be important in fish responses: when one fish taxon was removed, the other showed increased biomass. Although the pattern of simulation results was consistent across the four streams, the magnitude of change varied among streams. Streams with food webs fueled by multiple energy sources may be more resilient to changes to riparian forests and climate. Through application of a systems model, we gained insights into pathways of productivity for fish in forested stream ecosystems that provide understanding of processes that influence fish and streams, as well as implications for management of both.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

USGS1989

Velocities of antarctic outlet glaciers determined from sequential Landsat images

Approximately 91.0 percent of the volume of present-day glacier ice on Earth is in Antarctica; Greenland contains about another 8.3 percent of the volume. Thus, together, these two great ice sheets account for an estimated 99.3 percent of the total. Long-term changes in the volume of glacier ice on our planet are the result of global climate change. Because of the relationship of global ice volume to sea level (± 330 cubic kilometers of glacier ice equals ± 1 millimeter sea level), changes in the mass balance of the antarctic ice sheet are of particular importance. Whether the mass balance of the east and west antarctic ice sheets is positive or negative is not known. Estimates of mass input by total annual precipitation for the continent have been made from scattered meteorological observations (Swithinbank 1985). The magnitude of annual ablation of the ice sheet from calving of outlet glaciers and ice shelves is also not well known. Although the velocities of outlet glaciers can be determined from field measurements during the austral summer,the technique is costly, does not cover a complete annual cycle,and has been applied to just a few glaciers. To increase the number of outlet glaciers in Antarctica for which velocities have been determined and to provide additional data for under-standing the dynamics of the antarctic ice sheets and their response to global climate change, sequential Landsat image of several outlet glaciers were measured.

Antarctic Journal of the United States↗

USGS2025

Challenges and priorities for climate-informed invasive species management across multiple scales

In recent decades, substantial evidence has accumulated regarding the effects of climate change on the establishment, spread, and impact of invasive species. While the importance of incorporating climate change into invasive species management and policy is increasingly recognized, practitioner experiences and perspectives are often overlooked. Consequently, invasive species research may be misaligned with the needs of managers and the threats of climate change. Here, we compare survey responses from a boundary-spanning organization, the Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (RISCC) Management Network, to identify common priorities and challenges in managing invasive species in a changing climate in the United States. Survey respondents reported that 22% of management and research time is dedicated to emerging invasive species threats. Common barriers to climate-informed invasive species management include limited time, funding, and personnel. Understanding how climate change may impact control strategies was consistently identified as a high priority for invasive species management, followed by identifying resilient ecosystems and range-shifting taxa. These results demonstrate the critical need for stronger researcher-practitioner networks and greater investment in research and policy topics that more closely align with management needs to address the interacting stressors of invasive species and climate change.

Conservation Science and Practice↗

USGS2021

The Yorktown Formation: Improved stratigraphy, chronology and paleoclimate interpretations from the U.S. mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain

The Yorktown Formation records paleoclimate conditions along the mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain during the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma), a climate interval of the Pliocene in some ways analogous to near future climate projections. To gain insight into potential near future changes, we investigated Yorktown Formation outcrops and cores in southeastern Virginia, refining the stratigraphic framework. We analyzed 485 samples for alkenone-based sea surface temperature (SST) and productivity estimates from the Holland and Dory cores, an outcrop at Morgarts Beach, Virginia, and the lectostratotype of the Yorktown Formation at Rushmere, Virginia, and analyzed planktonic foraminferal assemblage data from the type section. Using the structure of the SST record, we improved the chronology of the Yorktown Formation by establishing the maximum age ranges of the Rushmere (3.3–3.2 Ma) and Morgarts Beach (3.2–3.15 Ma) Members. SST values for these members average ~26 °C, corroborating existing sclerochronological data. Increasing planktonic foraminifer abundance, productivity, and species diversity parallel increasing SST over the MIS M2/M1 transition. These records constitute the greatest temporal concentration of paleoecological estimates within the Yorktown Formation, aiding our understanding of western North Atlantic temperature patterns, seasonality and ocean circulation during this interval. We provide a chronologic framework for future studies analyzing ecological responses to profound climate change.

Virginia↗

USGS2022

Soils

Soils play a strong role in determining how New Mexico’s diverse landscapes will respond to climate change. Soil cover acts like a sponge, holding in water that falls as rain or snow. The presence of soil supports vegetation, and substantially reduces runoff and erosion. Soil enhances other processes such as infiltration of water and aquifer recharge. Soils can be damaged by a warming climate. Loss of vegetation in the Northwest High Desert and Eastern Plains, where soils are not well developed and easily damaged, will lead to dustier conditions in much of the state. On mountain hillslopes, the loss of vegetation cover in response to ongoing climate change will increase soil erosion, which then increases hillslope runoff. This, in turn, causes additional increases in soil erosion and bedrock exposure, which can largely prevent widespread recolonization by most plants, including trees. Soils on mountain hillslopes that face south, which are typically hotter and drier, will be damaged sooner by a warming climate than those on generally north-facing hillslopes that are slightly cooler and moister. Soils take many thousands of years to form, so these hillslopes will increasingly support sparse forests, or, in some circumstances, be entirely deforested. These changes are already well underway in some mountains in New Mexico.

New Mexico↗

USGS2008

Regeneration potential of Taxodium distichum swamps and climate change

Seed bank densities respond to factors across local to landscape scales, and therefore, knowledge of these responses may be necessary in forecasting the effects of climate change on the regeneration of species. This study relates the seed bank densities of species of Taxodium distichum swamps to local water regime and regional climate factors at five latitudes across the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley from southern Illinois to Louisiana. In an outdoor nursery setting, the seed banks of twenty-five swamps were exposed to non-flooded (freely drained) or flooded treatments, and the number and species of seeds germinating were recorded from each swamp during one growing season. Based on ANOVA analysis, the majority of dominant species had a higher rate of germination in non-flooded versus flooded treatments. Similarly, an NMS comparison, which considered the local water regime and regional climate of the swamps, found that the species of seeds germinating, almost completely shifted under non-flooded versus flooded treatments. For example, in wetter northern swamps, seeds of Taxodium distichum germinated in non-flooded conditions, but did not germinate from the same seed banks in flooded conditions. In wetter southern swamps, seeds of Eleocharis cellulosa germinated in flooded conditions, but did not germinate in non-flooded conditions. The strong relationship of seed germination and density relationships with local water regime and regional climate variables suggests that the forecasting of climate change effects on swamps and other wetlands needs to consider a variety of interrelated variables to make adequate projections of the regeneration responses of species to climate change. Because regeneration is an important aspect of species maintenance and restoration, climate drying could influence the species distribution of these swamps in the future. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Plant Ecology↗

USGS2011

Responses of wind erosion to climate-induced vegetation changes on the Colorado Plateau

Projected increases in aridity throughout the southwestern United States due to anthropogenic climate change will likely cause reductions in perennial vegetation cover, which leaves soil surfaces exposed to erosion. Accelerated rates of dust emission from wind erosion have large implications for ecosystems and human well-being, yet there is poor understanding of the sources and magnitude of dust emission in a hotter and drier climate. Here we use a two-stage approach to compare the susceptibility of grasslands and three different shrublands to wind erosion on the Colorado Plateau and demonstrate how climate can indirectly moderate the magnitude of aeolian sediment flux through different responses of dominant plants in these communities. First, using results from 20 y of vegetation monitoring, we found perennial grass cover in grasslands declined with increasing mean annual temperature in the previous year, whereas shrub cover in shrublands either showed no change or declined as temperature increased, depending on the species. Second, we used these vegetation monitoring results and measurements of soil stability as inputs into a field-validated wind erosion model and found that declines in perennial vegetation cover coupled with disturbance to biological soil crust resulted in an exponential increase in modeled aeolian sediment flux. Thus the effects of increased temperature on perennial plant cover and the correlation of declining plant cover with increased aeolian flux strongly suggest that sustained drought conditions across the southwest will accelerate the likelihood of dust production in the future on disturbed soil surfaces.

Utah↗

USGS2015

Multilevel groundwater monitoring of hydraulic head and temperature in the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer, Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho, 2011-13

From 2011 to 2013, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Project Office, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy, collected depth-discrete measurements of fluid pressure and temperature in 11 boreholes located in the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer. Each borehole was instrumented with a multilevel monitoring system (MLMS) consisting of a series of valved measurement ports, packer bladders, casing segments, and couplers. Multilevel monitoring at the INL has been ongoing since 2006 and this report summarizes data collected from 2011 to 2013 in 11 multilevel monitoring wells. Hydraulic head (head) and groundwater temperature data were collected from 11 multilevel monitoring wells, including 177 hydraulically isolated depth intervals from 448.0 to 1,377.6 feet below land surface. One port (port 3) within borehole USGS 134 was not monitored because of a valve failure. Head and temperature profiles reveal unique patterns for vertical examination of the aquifer’s complex basalt and sediment stratigraphy, proximity to aquifer recharge and discharge, and groundwater flow. These features contribute to some of the localized variability even though the general profile shape remained consistent over the period of record. Twenty-two major head inflections were described for 9 of 11 MLMS boreholes and almost always coincided with low‑permeability sediment layers and occasionally thick layers of dense basalt. However, the presence of a sediment layer or dense basalt layer was insufficient for identifying the location of a major head change within a borehole without knowing the true areal extent and relative transmissivity of the lithologic unit. Temperature profiles for boreholes completed within the Big Lost Trough indicate linear conductive trends; whereas, temperature profiles for boreholes completed within volcanic rift zones and near the southern boundary of the Idaho National Laboratory, indicate mostly convective heat transfer. Select boreholes along the southern boundary show a temperature reversal and cooler water deeper in the aquifer resulting from the vertical movement of groundwater. Vertical head and temperature change were quantified for each of the 11 multilevel monitoring systems. Vertical head gradients defined for the major inflections in the head profiles were as high as 2.9 feet per foot. In general, fractured basalt zones displayed relatively small vertical head differences and show a high occurrence within volcanic rift zones. Poor connectivity between fractures and higher vertical gradients were generally attributed to sediment layers and layers of dense basalt, or both. Groundwater temperatures in all boreholes ranged from 10.8 to 16.3 °C. Normalized mean head values were analyzed for all 11 multilevel monitoring wells for the period of record (2007–13). The mean head values suggest a moderately positive correlation among all boreholes and generally reflect regional fluctuations in water levels in response to seasonal climatic changes. Boreholes within volcanic rift zones and near the southern boundary (USGS 103, USGS 105, USGS 108, USGS 132, USGS 135, USGS 137A) display a temporal correlation that is strongly positive. Boreholes in the Big Lost Trough display some variations in temporal correlations that may result from proximity to the mountain front to the northwest and episodic flow in the Big Lost River drainage system. For example, during June 2012, boreholes MIDDLE 2050A and MIDDLE 2051 showed head buildup within the upper zones when compared to the June 2010 profile event, which correlates to years when surface water was reported for the Big Lost River several months preceding the measurement period. With the exception of borehole USGS 134, temporal correlation between MLMS wells completed within the Big Lost Trough is generally positive. Temporal correlation for borehole USGS 134 shows the least agreement with other MLMS boreholes located within the Big Lost Trough; however, borehole USGS 134 is close to the mountain front where tributary valley subsurface inflow is suspected.

Idaho↗

USGS2010

Vegetation response to early holocene warming as an analog for current and future changes: Special section

Temperatures in southwestern North America are projected to increase 3.5-4 ??C over the next 60-90 years. This will precipitate ecological shifts as the ranges of species change in response to new climates. During this shift, rapid-colonizing species should increase, whereas slow-colonizing species will at first decrease, but eventually become reestablished in their new range. This successional process has been estimated to require from 100 to over 300 years in small areas, under a stable climate, with a nearby seed source. How much longer will it require on a continental scale, under a changing climate, without a nearby seed source? I considered this question through an examination of the response of fossil plant assemblages from the Grand Canyon, Arizona, to the most recent rapid warming of similar magnitude that occurred at the start of the Holocene, 11,700 years ago. At that time, temperatures in southwestern North America increased about 4 ??C over less than a century. Grand Canyon plant species responded at different rates to this warming climate. Early-successional species rapidly increased, whereas late-successional species decreased. This shift persisted throughout the next 2700 years. I found two earlier, less-extreme species shifts following rapid warming events around 14,700 and 16,800 years ago. Late-successional species predominated only after 4000 years or more of relatively stable temperature. These results suggest the potential magnitude, duration, and nature of future ecological changes and have implications for conservation plans, especially those incorporating equilibrium assumptions or reconstituting past conditions. When these concepts are extended to include the most rapid early-successional colonizers, they imply that the recent increases in invasive exotics may be only the most noticeable part of a new resurgence of early-successional vegetation. Additionally, my results challenge the reliability of models of future vegetation and carbon balance that project conditions on the basis of assumptions of equilibrium within only a century. ?? 2009 Society for Conservation Biology.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS2022

Importance of local weather and environmental gradients on demography of a broadly distributed temperate frog

Amphibian populations are sensitive to environmental temperatures and moisture, which vary with local weather conditions and may reach new norms and extremes as contemporary climate change progresses. Using long-term (11–16 years) mark-recapture data from 10 populations of the Columbia spotted frog ( Rana luteiventris ) from across its U.S. range, we addressed hypotheses about how demographic relationships to weather depend upon a population’s position along climate gradients. We estimated the effect of seasonal weather on annual survival probability and recruitment rates both within populations and across the species’ range from subalpine forests to semi-arid deserts. We calculated population-specific weather variables that captured seasonal temperature and precipitation between summer sampling events, both for periods when frogs were active (spring to fall) and inactive (winter). Across all populations, we marked 15,885 adult frogs, with 33% of frogs recaptured at least once. Population demography varied with seasonal weather across the species’ range. Annual adult survival probability and recruitment rates of each population were influenced by a unique set of seasonal temperature and precipitation variables, particularly in winter and spring. Hence, adult survival varied with local conditions but, when analyzed across all populations, was predictable along a species-environment response curve associated with the timing of snowmelt and spring moisture. In contrast, recruitment rates for each population peaked at different values along an environmental gradient associated with the amount of snow during winter, and fall temperature and moisture levels, suggesting that recruitment may be responding to local conditions independently within each population. These findings highlight that sampling across the environmental (i.e., elevational and meteorological) gradients within a species range is necessary to predict species-level responses to regional climate change. This study also provides evidence of the importance of winter conditions on the demography of temperate amphibians, conditions that are already responding to climate change. Finally, this study further emphasizes that local context and spatiotemporal scale of inquiry remain paramount to understanding and potentially managing for climate effects on populations of amphibian species with broad geographic ranges.

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon↗

USGS2019

Mountain-block recharge: A review of current understanding

Mountain-block recharge (MBR) is the subsurface inflow of groundwater to lowland aquifers from adjacent mountains. MBR can be a major component of recharge but remains difficult to characterize and quantify due to limited hydrogeologic, climatic, and other data in the mountain block and at the mountain front. The number of MBR-related studies has increased dramatically in the 15 years since the last review of the topic was conducted by Wilson and Guan (2004), generating important advancements. We review this recent body of literature, summarize current understanding of factors controlling MBR, and provide recommendations for future research priorities. Prior to 2004, most MBR studies were performed in the southwestern United States. Since then, numerous studies have detected and quantified MBR in basins around the world, typically estimating MBR to be 5–50% of basin-fill aquifer recharge. Theoretical studies using generic numerical modeling domains have revealed fundamental hydrogeologic and topographic controls on the amount of MBR and where it originates within the mountain block. Several mountain-focused hydrogeologic studies have confirmed the widespread existence of mountain bedrock aquifers hosting considerable groundwater flow and, in some cases, identified the occurrence of interbasin flow leaving headwater catchments in the subsurface—both of which are required for MBR to occur. Future MBR research should focus on the collection of high-priority data (e.g., subsurface data near the mountain front and within the mountain block) and the development of sophisticated coupled models calibrated to multiple data types to best constrain MBR and predict how it may change in response to climate warming.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2020

Fish growth rates and lake sulphate explain variation in mercury levels in ninespine stickleback (Pungitius pungitius) on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska

Mercury concentrations in freshwater food webs are governed by complex biogeochemical and ecological interactions that spatially vary and are often mediated by climate. The Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska (ACP) is a heterogeneous, lake-rich landscape where variability in mercury accumulation is poorly understood. Earlier research indicated that the level of catchment influence on lakes varied spatially on the ACP, and affected mercury accumulation in lake sediments. This work sought to determine drivers of spatial variation in mercury accumulation in lake food webs on the ACP. Three lakes that were a priori identified as “high catchment influence” (Reindeer Camp region) and three lakes that were a priori identified as “low catchment influence” (Atqasuk region) were sampled, and variability in water chemistry, food web ecology, and mercury accumulation was investigated. Among-lake differences in ninespine stickleback ( Pungitius pungitius ) length-adjusted methylmercury concentrations were significantly explained by sulphate concentration in lake water, a tracer of catchment runoff input. This effect was mediated by fish growth, which had no pattern between regions. Together, lake water sulphate concentration and fish age-at-size (proxy for growth) accounted for nearly all of the among-lake variability in length-adjusted methylmercury concentrations in stickleback (R 2 adj = 0.94, p < 0.01). The percentage of total mercury as methylmercury (a proxy for net Hg methylation) was higher in sediments of more autochthonous, “low catchment influence” lakes ( p < 0.05), and in the periphyton of more allochthonous, “high catchment influence” lakes (p < 0.05). The results indicate that dominant sources of primary production (littoral macrophyte/biofilm vs. pelagic phytoplankton) and food web structure (detrital vs. grazing) are regulated by catchment characteristics on the ACP, and that this ultimately influences the amount of methylmercury in the aquatic food web. These results have important implications for predicting future mercury concentrations in fish in lakes where fish growth rates and catchment inputs may change in response to a changing climate.

Alaska↗

USGS2006

Predicting woodrat ( Neotoma ) responses to anthropogenic warming from studies of the palaeomidden record

Aim The influence of anthropogenic climate change on organisms is an area of great scientific concern. Increasingly there is recognition that abrupt climate transitions have occurred over the late Quaternary; studies of these shifts may yield insights into likely biotic responses to contemporary warming. Here, we review research undertaken over the past decade investigating the response of Neotoma (woodrats) body size and distribution to climate change over the late Quaternary (the last 40,000 years). By integrating information from woodrat palaeomiddens, historical museum specimens and field studies of modern populations, we identify potential evolutionary responses to climate change occurring over a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Specifically, we characterize climatic thresholds in the past that led to local species extirpation and/or range alterations rather than in situ adaptation, and apply them to anticipate potential biotic responses to anthropogenic climate change. Location Middens were collected at about 55 sites scattered across the western United States, ranging from about 34 to 46° N and about 104 to 116° W, respectively. Data for modern populations were drawn from studies conducted in Death Valley, California, Missoula, Montana and the Sevilleta LTER site in central New Mexico. Methods We analysed faecal pellets from midden series collected at numerous cave sites across the western United States. From these we estimated body mass using techniques validated in earlier studies. We compared body size fluctuations at different elevations in different regions and integrated these results with studies investigating temperature–body size tradeoffs in modern animals. We also quantify the rapidity of the size changes over the late Quaternary to estimate the evolutionary capacity of woodrats to deal with predicted rates of anthropogenic climate change over the next century. Results We find remarkable similarities across the geographical range to late Quaternary climate change. In the middle of the geographical range woodrats respond in accordance to Bergmann's rule: colder climatic conditions select for larger body size and warmer conditions select for smaller body size. Patterns are more complicated at range boundaries, and local environmental conditions influence the observed response. In general, woodrat body size fluctuates with approximately the same amplitude and frequency as climate; there is a significant and positive correlation between woodrat body size and generalized climate proxies (such as ice core records). Woodrats have achieved evolutionary rates of change equal to or greater than those needed to adapt in situ to anthropogenic climate change. Main conclusions In situ body size evolution is a likely outcome of climate change, and such shifts are part of a normal spectrum of adaptation. Woodrats appear to be subject to ongoing body size selection in response to fluctuating environmental conditions. Allometric considerations suggest that these shifts in body size lead to substantial changes in the physiology, life history and ecology of woodrats, and on their direct and indirect interactions with other organisms in the ecosystem. Our work highlights the importance of a finely resolved and long-term record in understanding biotic responses to climatic shifts.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS2012

Water quality and landscape processes of four watersheds in eastern Puerto Rico

Humid tropical regions occupy about a quarter of Earth's land surface, yet they contribute a substantially higher fraction of the water, solutes, and sediment discharged to the world's oceans. Nearly half of Earth's population lives in the tropics, and development stresses can potentially harm soil resources, water quality, and water supply and in addition increase landslide and flood hazards. Owing to Puerto Rico's steep topography, low water storage capacity, and dependence on trade-wind precipitation, the island's people, ecosystems, and water supply are vulnerable to extreme weather such as hurricanes, floods, and droughts. Eastern Puerto Rico offers a natural laboratory for separating geologic and land-cover influences from regional- and global-scale influences because of its various bedrock types and the changing land cover surrounding intact, mature forest of the Luquillo Experimental Forest. Accordingly, a multiyear assessment of hydrological and biogeochemical processes was designed to develop an understanding of the effects of these differences on local climate, streamflow, water quality, and ecosystems, and to form the basis for a long-term and event-based program of climate and hydrologic monitoring. Because infrequent, large storms play a major role in this landscape, we focused on high-runoff events, sampling 263 storms, including all major hurricanes from 1991 through 2005. The largest storms have profound geomorphic consequences, such as landslides, debris flows, deep gullying on deforested lands, excavation and suspension of sediment in stream channels, and delivery of a substantial fraction of annual stream sediment load. Large storms sometimes entrain ocean foam and spray causing high concentrations of seasalt-derived constituents in stream waters during the storm. Past deforestation and agricultural activities in the Cayaguás and Canóvanas watersheds accelerated erosion and soil loss, and this material continues to be remobilized during large storms. Nearly 5,000 routine and event samples were analyzed for parameters that allow determination of denudation rates based on suspended and dissolved loads; 860 of these samples were analyzed for a comprehensive suite of chemical constituents. The rivers studied are generally similar in water-quality characteristics, and windward or leeward aspect appears to exert a stronger influence on water quality than geology or land cover. Of samples analyzed for comprehensive chemistry and for sediment, 543 were collected at runoff rates greater than 1 millimeter per hour, 256 at rates exceeding 10 millimeters per hour, and 3 at rates exceeding 90 millimeters per hour. Streams have rarely been sampled during events with such high runoff rates. Rates of physical and chemical weathering are especially high, and physical denudation rates, forested watersheds included, are considerably greater than is expected for a steady-state system. The elevated physical erosion drives an increased particulate organic carbon flux, one that is large, important to the carbon cycle, and sustainable, because soil-carbon regeneration is rapid. The 15-year Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budget dataset, which includes discharge, field parameters, suspended sediment, major cations and anions, and nutrients, is available from the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Information System (http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis). The dataset provides a baseline for characterizing future environmental change and will improve our understanding of the interdependencies of land, water, and biological resources and their responses to changes in climate and land use. Because eastern Puerto Rico resembles many tropical regions in terms of geology and patterns of development, implications from this study are transferable to other tropical regions facing deforestation, rapid land-use change, and climate change.

Puerto Rico↗