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At least 523 records · Page 29Linked to original sources

Detection of Splendidofilaria sp. (Onchocercidae:Splendidofilariinae) Microfilaria within Alaskan ground-dwelling birds in the grouse subfamily tetraoninae using taqman probe-based real-time PCR

Grouse and ptarmigan (Galliformes) harbor fairly diverse helminth faunas that can impact the host's health, including filarial nematodes in the genus Splendidofilaria . As host and parasite distributions are predicted to shift in response to recent climate change, novel parasites may be introduced into a region and impose additional stressors on bird populations. Limited information is available on the prevalence of filariasis in Alaska galliforms. To date, no molecular surveys have been completed. Past studies relied on examining blood smears or total body necropsies, which are time-consuming and may not detect filarial parasites with low prevalence in hosts. Therefore, we developed a TaqMan probe-based real-time PCR assay targeting the cytochrome c oxidase 1 gene ( COI ) of Splendidofilaria to decrease processing times and increase sensitivity as well as provide baseline data on the diversity of filariid infections in galliform species in Alaska. We screened a combined total of 708 galliform samples (678 unique individual birds) from different tissues (blood, muscle, and lung) for the presence of filarial DNA across the state of Alaska. Real-time PCR screening revealed an overall prevalence of filarial infection of 9.5% across species: Bonasa umbellus (0%, n = 23), Dendragapus fuliginosus (0%, n = 8), Falcipennis canadensis (26.8%, n = 198), Lagopus lagopus (2.6%, n = 274), Lagopus leucura (0%, n = 23), Lagopus muta (3%, n = 166), and Tympanuchus phasianellus (12.5%, n = 16). We observed microfilarial infections throughout most of Alaska except in Arctic regions and the Aleutian Islands where viable vectors may not be present.

Journal of Parasitology

Distribution of benthic foraminifers (>125 um) in the surface sediments of the Arctic Ocean

Census data on benthic foraminifers (>125 ?m) in surface sediment samples from 49 box cores are used to define four depth-controlled biofacies, which will aid in the paleoceanographic reconstruction of the Arctic Ocean. The shelf biofacies contains a mix of shallow-water calcareous and agglutinated species from the continental shelves of the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas and reflects the variable sedimentologic and oceanic conditions of the Arctic shelves. The intermediate-depth calcareous biofacies, found between 500 and 1,100 meters water depth (mwd), contains abundant Cassidulina teretis , presumably indicating the influence of Atlantic-derived water at this depth. In water depths between 1,100 and 3,500 m, a deepwater calcareous biofacies contains abundant Oridorsalis umbonatus . Below 3,500 mwd, the deepwater mixed calcareous/agglutinated biofacies of the Canada, Makarov, and Eurasian Basins reflects a combination of low productivity, dissolution, and sediment transport. Two other benthic foraminiferal species show specific environmental preferences. Fontbotia wuellerstorfi has a depth distribution between 900 and 3,500 mwd, but maximum abundance occurs in the region of the Mendeleyev Ridge. The elevated abundance of F. wuellerstorfi may be related to increased food supply carried by a branch of Atlantic water that crosses the Lomonosov Ridge near the Russian Continental Shelf. Triloculina frigida is recognized to be a species preferring lower slope sediments commonly disturbed by turbidites and bottom currents. INTRODUCTION At present, our understanding of the Arctic Ocean lags behind our understanding of other oceans, and fundamental questions still exist about its role in and response to global climate change. The Arctic Ocean is particularly sensitive to climatic fluctuations because small changes in the amounts of sea-ice cover can alter global albedo and thermohaline circulation (Aagaard and Carmack, 1994). Numerous questions still exist regarding the nature and timing of paleoclimatic events in the Arctic Ocean. In order to attempt to answer some of these questions, baseline studies are imperative. This report discusses the distribution of benthic foraminifers in surface sediment samples from 49 box cores (figs. 1 and 2, table 1) collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) with the assistance of the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG). A modern data set of benthic foraminiferal distribution is necessary for interpreting the paleoclimatic and oceanographic history of the Arctic Ocean.

Bulletin

Changing Arctic ecosystems: ecology of loons in a changing Arctic

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) initiative informs key resource management decisions for Arctic Alaska by providing scientific information on current and future ecosystem response to a changing climate. From 2010 to 2014, a key study area for the USGS CAE initiative has been the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. This region has experienced rapid warming during the past 30 years, leading to the thawing of permafrost and changes to lake and river systems. These changes, and projections of continued change, have raised questions about effects on wildlife populations that rely on northern lake ecosystems, such as loons. Loons rely on freshwater lakes for nesting habitat and the fish and invertebrates inhabiting the lakes for food. Loons live within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A) on Alaska’s northern coast, where oil and gas development is expected to increase. Research by the USGS examines how breeding loons use the Arctic lake ecosystem and the capacity of loons to adapt to future landscape change.

Alaska

Advanced systems data for mapping Emperor Penguin habitats in Antarctica

Commercial orbital sensor systems combined with other resource data from the U.S. Geological Survey National Civil Applications Program (NCAP) may offer an effective way of mapping Emperor penguin habitats and their response to regional climate change in Antarctica. This project examined these resources to determine their applicability for mapping Emperor penguin habitats to support the National Science Foundation. This work is especially significant to investigate satellite-based imaging as an alternative to intrusive in-the-field enumeration of Emperor penguins and the potential of applying these procedures to support The National Map (TNP).

Open-File Report

Population genomic surveys for six rare plant species in San Diego County, California

San Diego County is a hotspot of biodiversity, situated at the intersection of the Baja peninsula, the California floristic province, and the desert southwest. This hotspot is characterized by a high number of rare and endemic species, which persist alongside a major urban epicenter. San Diego County has implemented a strategic management plan that identifies species, based on low numbers of occurrences or high level of threat, for which management practices are recommended. In creating a management plan for rare species, it is important to strike a balance between preserving locally adapted traits and maintaining genetic diversity, as species’ ranges fluctuate in response to a changing climate and habitat fragmentation. This project, in partnership with the San Diego Natural History Museum, aims to provide a reference point for the current status of genetic diversity of rare plant species that will inform future preservation and restoration efforts. We focused on six threatened or endangered plant species: Acanthomintha ilicifolia , Baccharis vanessae , Chloropyron maritimum ssp. maritimum , Deinandra conjugens , Dicranostegia orcuttiana , and Monardella viminea . For each species, botanists from the San Diego Natural History Museum visited all known occurrences in San Diego County and collected leaf tissue for genetic and cytological analysis. We then developed a panel of genetic markers to estimate genetic diversity and population structure. This population genetic survey provided insight into the amount of genetic differentiation across each species’ range, identified isolated occurrences potentially subject to inbreeding or genetic bottlenecks, and identified areas that are rich sources of allelic diversity. Finally, we convened a panel of experts to review results and compatible management options for each species. A summary of the management workshop is included in this report. Overall, we found low genetic differentiation among occurrences across the San Diego region for all species, with the exception of A. ilicifolia . Relative inbreeding was low and consistent across sites, and genetic diversity across sites was variable, with noted exceptions. These findings allow for a wide array of management options that are compatible with panmictic population structure in five of the six surveyed species.

California

The Ozark Plateaus Regional Aquifer Study—Documentation of a groundwater-flow model constructed to assess water availability in the Ozark Plateaus

Recent short-term drought conditions have emphasized the need to better understand the delicate balance between abundance, sustainability, and scarcity of groundwater in the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system. In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey began construction of a groundwater-flow model as a tool for the assessment of groundwater availability in the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system. The model was developed to benefit concurrent and future investigations involving groundwater-pumping scenarios, optimization, particle transport, and groundwater-monitoring network analysis. The groundwater model simulates 116 years (1900–2015) of hydrologic conditions and the response of the groundwater system to changes in stress including changes in recharge and groundwater pumping for water supply. Semiseasonal stress periods were simulated from the later part of 1991 to 2015 and represent higher demand and lower recharge in the spring and summer months and lower demand and higher recharge in the fall and winter months. Groundwater pumping increases throughout the simulation period with a maximum rate of about 600 million gallons per day (Mgal/d). The process of matching historical hydrologic data for the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system model was accomplished by a combination of manual changes to parameter values and automated calibration methods. Observation data used in the development and evaluation of the model included 19,045 hydraulic-head observations from 6,683 wells within the model area. Observation data also included stream leakage estimates summed to calculate a net gain or net loss value for approximately 81 named streams. The majority (mean of over 95 percent) of the recharge component is discharged through streams simulated in the model. The total simulated discharge to streams fluctuates seasonally between 7,500 and 17,500 Mgal/d with a mean outflow of 11,500 Mgal/d. Much of the remaining balance between modeled recharge inflows and stream outflows is made up by water moving into or out of storage in the aquifer system resulting in changes in modeled groundwater levels. The goal of the model was to develop a model capable of suitable accuracy at regional scales. The intent was not to reproduce individual local-scale details, which are typically not possible given the uniform cell size of 1 square mile. Although the model may not represent each local-scale detail, the model can be applied for a better understanding of the regional flow system and to evaluate responses to changes in climate and groundwater pumping.

Ozark Plateaus aquifer system

Collar temperature sensor data reveal long-term patterns in southern Beaufort Sea polar bear den distribution on pack ice and land

In response to a changing climate, many species alter habitat use. Polar bears Ursus maritimus in the southern Beaufort Sea have increasingly used land for maternal denning. To aid in detecting denning behavior, we developed an objective method to identify polar bear denning events using temperature sensor data collected by satellite-linked transmitters deployed on adult females between 1985 and 2013. We then applied this method to determine whether southern Beaufort Sea polar bears have continued to increase land denning with recent sea-ice loss and examined whether sea-ice conditions affect the distribution of dens between pack-ice and coastal substrates. Because land use in summer and autumn has also increased, we examined potential associations between summering substrate and denning substrate. Statistical process control methods applied to temperature-sensor data identified denning events with 94.5% accuracy in comparison to direct observations (n = 73) and 95.7% accuracy relative to subjective classifications based on temperature, location, and activity sensor data (n = 116). We found an increase in land-based denning during the study period. The frequency of land denning was directly related to the distance that sea ice retreated from the coast. Among females that denned, all 14 that summered on land subsequently denned there, whereas 29% of the 69 bears summering on ice denned on land. These results suggest that denning on land may continue to increase with further loss of sea ice. While the effects that den substrate have on nutrition, energetics, and reproduction are unclear, more polar bears denning onshore will likely increase human-bear interactions.

Alaska

Global observational needs and resources for marine biodiversity

The diversity of life in the sea is critical to the health of ocean ecosystems that support living resources and therefore essential to the economic, nutritional, recreational, and health needs of billions of people. Yet there is evidence that the biodiversity of many marine habitats is being altered in response to a changing climate and human activity. Understanding this change, and forecasting where changes are likely to occur, requires monitoring of organism diversity, distribution, abundance, and health. It requires a minimum of measurements including productivity and ecosystem function, species composition, allelic diversity, and genetic expression. These observations need to be complemented with metrics of environmental change and socio-economic drivers. However, existing global ocean observing infrastructure and programs often do not explicitly consider observations of marine biodiversity and associated processes. Much effort has focused on physical, chemical and some biogeochemical measurements. Broad partnerships, shared approaches, and best practices are now being organized to implement an integrated observing system that serves information to resource managers and decision-makers, scientists and educators, from local to global scales. This integrated observing system of ocean life is now possible due to recent developments among satellite, airborne, and in situ sensors in conjunction with increases in information system capability and capacity, along with an improved understanding of marine processes represented in new physical, biogeochemical, and biological models.

Frontiers in Marine Science

Exploiting differential vegetation phenology for satellite-based mapping of semiarid grass vegetation in the southwestern United States and northern Mexico

We developed and evaluated a methodology for subpixel discrimination and large-area mapping of the perennial warm-season (C 4 ) grass component of vegetation cover in mixed-composition landscapes of the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. We describe the methodology within a general, conceptual framework that we identify as the differential vegetation phenology (DVP) paradigm. We introduce a DVP index, the Normalized Difference Phenometric Index (NDPI) that provides vegetation type-specific information at the subpixel scale by exploiting differential patterns of vegetation phenology detectable in time-series spectral vegetation index (VI) data from multispectral land imagers. We used modified soil-adjusted vegetation index (MSAVI 2 ) data from Landsat to develop the NDPI, and MSAVI 2 data from MODIS to compare its performance relative to one alternate DVP metric (difference of spring average MSAVI 2 and summer maximum MSAVI 2 ), and two simple, conventional VI metrics (summer average MSAVI 2 , summer maximum MSAVI 2 ). The NDPI in a scaled form (NDPI s ) performed best in predicting variation in perennial C 4 grass cover as estimated from landscape photographs at 92 sites (R 2 = 0.76, p < 0.001), indicating improvement over the alternate DVP metric (R 2 = 0.73, p < 0.001) and substantial improvement over the two conventional VI metrics (R 2 = 0.62 and 0.56, p < 0.001). The results suggest DVP-based methods, and the NDPI in particular, can be effective for subpixel discrimination and mapping of exposed perennial C 4 grass cover within mixed-composition landscapes of the Southwest, and potentially for monitoring of its response to drought, climate change, grazing and other factors, including land management. With appropriate adjustments, the method could potentially be used for subpixel discrimination and mapping of grass or other vegetation types in other regions where the vegetation components of the landscape exhibit contrasting seasonal patterns of phenology.

Arizona

A review of Arctomecon californica (Papaveraceae) with a focus on the species’ potential for propagation and reintroduction and conservation needs

Las Vegas bearpoppy ( Arctomecon californica ) occurrences have fluctuated during the past several decades, in part due to interannual variability in rainfall that influences recruitment and mortality events; yet, development in the Las Vegas Valley continues to threaten habitat supporting this species. Arctomecon californica was petitioned for listing under the Endangered Species Act in 2019 and is currently under review to determine whether listing is warranted ( USFWS 2020 ). This review updates species information for A. californica and includes recent insights into the species' seed ecology, habitat requirements and suitability models, propagation and reintroduction, and pollinator biology. We include information from the past 20 years in these areas that supplement conservation and restoration actions for the species. We also identify topics with scarce information and highlight areas for future study, including the following: preservation of genetic diversity through germplasm collections, identification of mechanisms driving the species' soil endemism, maintenance of A. californica –pollinator relationships through understanding pollinator habitat, determination of the viable seed fraction and its longevity in the soil seed reserves, and prediction of population response to regional climate change based on demographic modeling.

Arizona, Nevada

Grasslands

Key findings: Total grassland carbon stocks in the conterminous United States, estimated to be about 7.4 petagrams of carbon (Pg C) in 2005, are projected to increase to about 8.2 Pg C by 2050. Although U.S. grasslands are expected to remain carbon sinks over this period, the uptake rate is projected to decline by about half. In the U.S. Great Plains, land-use and land-cover changes are expected to cause much of the change in carbon cycling as grasslands are converted to agricultural lands or to woody biomes (medium confidence). Increasing temperatures and rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations interact to increase productivity in northern North American grasslands, but this productivity response will be mediated by variable precipitation, soil moisture, and nutrient availability (high confidence, very likely). Soil carbon in grasslands is likely to be moderately responsive to changes in climate over the next several decades. Field experiments in grasslands suggest that altered precipitation can increase soil carbon, while warming and elevated CO2 may have only minimal effects despite altered productivity (medium confidence, likely). Carbon stocks and net carbon uptake in grasslands can be maintained with appropriate land management including moderate levels of grazing. Fire suppression can lead to encroachment of woody vegetation and increasing carbon storage in mesic regions, at the expense of grassland vegetation (high confidence, likely).

Report

Occupancy and abundance of Eleutherodactylus wightmanae and E. brittoni along elevational gradients in west-central Puerto Rico

Populations of Eleutherodactylus species in Puerto Rico have declined in recent decades due to habitat loss and long-term climatic changes. The conservation of these habitat specialists requires an understanding of factors influencing their abundance and distribution, which at present is scant. We estimated occupancy probability and the probability of encountering ≥2 individuals of E. wightmanae (Melodius Coqui or Wightman's Robber Frog) and E. brittoni (Grass Coqui), species with contrasting habitat affinities, using multi-season, multi-state occupancy models. These parameters also served as an index of abundance (non-presence, 1, and ≥2 individuals). We modeled parameters as a function of seasonal temperature and humidity, long-term average monthly precipitation, and habitat covariates measured at survey sites along 2 elevation gradients in the southern slopes of west-central Puerto Rico. We collected survey data using passive acoustic recorders during 3 seasonal periods between February and July 2015. Occupancy patterns of both species was unimodal, containing higher probabilities (e.g., ≥0.5) at elevations between 400 m and 700 m, where long-term monthly precipitation varied between 120 mm and 160 mm. Chances of encountering ≥2 individuals increased with ground cover for E. brittoni , and decreased with increasing canopy cover for E. wightmanae . Seasonal temperature and relative humidity did not influence occupancy or the probability of encountering ≥2 individuals, likely because covariates varied within known tolerance levels for Eleutherodactylus . Our findings help reduce local extinction probability through management of habitat conditions that increase the likelihood of encountering ≥2 individuals. We also detailed an analytical framework suitable to test hypotheses aimed at predicting potential impacts from land use and climatic changes, and species responses to conservation actions.

Puerto Rico

Influence of late Quaternary climatic changes on geomorphic and pedogenic processes on a desert piedmont, Eastern Mojave Desert, California

Radiocarbon dating of late Quaternary deposits and shorelines of Lake Mojave and cation-ratio numerical age dating of stone pavements (Dorn, 1984) on the adjacent Soda Mountains piedmont provide age constraints for alluvial and eolian deposits. These deposits are associated with climatically controlled stands of Lake Mojave during the past 15,000 yr. Six alluvial fan units and three eolian stratigraphic units were assigned ages based on field relations with dated shorelines and piedmont surfaces, as well as on soil-geomorphic data. All but one of these stratigraphic units were deposited in response to time-transgressive climatic changes beginning approximately 10,000 yr ago. Increased eolian flux rates occurred in response to the lowering of Lake Mojave and a consequent increase in fine-sediment availability. Increased rates of deposition of eolian fines and associated salts influenced pedogenesis, stone-pavement development, and runoff-infiltration relations by (1) enhancing mechanical weathering of fan surfaces and hillslopes and (2) forming clay- and silt-rich surface horizons which decrease infiltration. Changes in alluvial-fan source areas from hillslopes to piedmonts during the Holocene reflect runoff reduction on hillslopes caused by colluvial mantle development and runoff enhancement on piedmonts caused by the development of less-permeable soils. Inferred increased in early to middle Holocene monsoonal activity resulted in high-magnitude paleo-sheetflood events on older fan pavements; this runoff triggered piedmont dissection which, in turn, caused increased sediment availability along channel walls. Thus, runoff-infiltration changes during the late Quaternary have occurred in response to eolian deposition of fines, pedogenesis, increased sheetflood activity in the Holocene, and vegetational changes which are related to many complicated linkages among climatic change, lake fluctuations, and eolian, hillslope, and alluvial-fan processes. ?? 1987.

Quaternary Research

Synthesis of the paleoclimatic record from Owens Lake core OL-92

During much of the late Quaternary, Owens Lake overflowed into one or more of four successively lower-elevation basins. Most of the water came from the high, eastern slopes of the southern Sierra Nevada, and changes in the volumes of that water reflect a dominant climatic cycle of ~100 k.y. Variations in the inflow to, and outflow from, Owens Lake since ca. 800 ka left biological, chemical, mineralogical, and geophysical evidence in the sediments of those changes. Biological evidence includes fossil ostracodes, diatoms, fish, and mollusks (and δ 18 O data from their shells) which indicate fresh or brackish lake water on the basis of their modern habitats. Fossil pollens indicate ~20 regional vegetation cycles during the same period. Chemical evidence of high inflow and, commonly, outflow volumes is provided by the low inorganic- and organic-C content of some sediments, reflecting short lake-water residence times; long residence times produced higher and more variable quantities of these components. Mineralogical variations in illite/smectite ratios indicate changes in weathering processes and glacial comminution. High magnetic susceptibility correlates with other criteria that indicate high runoff. Between 810 ka and 645 ka, Owens Lake was fresh, several meters deep, and depositing silt with a few beds of sand; it supported a flora and fauna now found in fresh, sometimes very cool, waters. (Note that most geologic ages describing the OL-92 chronology have been rounded to the nearest 5 or 10 ka.) A shallow-but-freshwater lake may have been the result of accelerated sedimentation during an earlier (>800 ka) glaciation in the Sierra Nevada, choking the basin with sediment nearly to its spillway level. Between 645 ka and 450 ka, the lake was probably even shallower, depositing beds of coarse to fine sand, but overflowing periodically allowing its water to remain fresh. Between 450 ka and 5 ka, Owens Lake was mostly deep, alternating between spilling and being closed part of the time. It deposited silt and clay on its floor, yet underwent detectable variations in salinity caused by climate changes; this part of the record is the most easily interpreted and constitutes the main basis for comparing this paleoclimatic record with other long records. From 5 ka to A.D. 1913, when the Owens River was diverted into an aqueduct, Owens Lake was shallow (~2 m to ~15 m), moderately saline (~5% to <15% salts), and depositing oolites. After 1913, the lake desiccated. Comparison of the Owens Lake water-depth record with that of Searles Lake, two-basins downstream during much of late Pleistocene time, shows that they underwent similar responses to climate, but sedimentation changes documenting those responses commenced thousands of years apart, apparently because changes in precipitation volumes occurred gradually. Owens Lake, at the base of high mountains, was the first to reflect increasing amounts of regional precipitation; Searles, in a more arid environment, was the first to reflect decreasing amounts of precipitation. Devils Hole, 150 km east of Owens Lake, has a well dated isotopic-temperature record that resembles the Owens Lake-depth record. Marine records of Pleistocene glacial fluctuations, which measure high-latitude ice-sheet volumes and thus both precipitation and temperature at those latitudes, also resemble the Owens Lake history. There are, however, differences between the ages of the maxima and minima of climatic events as reconstructed from the Owens Lake core and similar-appearing inflections in the other two records; the differences range from 0 to 33 k.y. and average ~15 k.y. The question arises whether the differences between those ages are results of errors in the time-scale used for the Owens Lake record, or were there significant differences in the times when atmospheric climate change began to affect its different elements. The three records compared here are measurements of different elements and combinations of elements in two latitude belts: the deep-sea marine records measure combinations of temperature and precipitation that determined global ice volumes (at mostly high latitudes), the Devils Hole record measures atmospheric temperatures (in its mid-latitude region), and the Owens Lake record measures effective precipitation (in the same mid-latitude region).

California

Special section overview: Effects of ecosystem change on North American percid populations.

Walleye Sander vitreus , Sauger S. canadensis , and Yellow Perch Perca flavescens (referred to as percids herein) are collectively among the most culturally and ecologically important fish species in North America. As ecosystems change in response to environmental drivers, such as climate change, nutrient loading, and invasive species, there is a need to understand how percid populations respond to these changes. To address this need, a symposium was held during the 81st Annual Midwest Fish and Wildlife Conference to bring fishery scientists and managers together to describe and discuss percid population responses to ecosystem change. Prevailing symposium themes included the challenge of identifying mechanisms responsible for population-level changes, developing strategies to adaptively manage for resilient fisheries, and consideration of scale, context, and methods when interpreting variable results. Given the uncertainty of how ecosystem changes affect percid populations, participants emphasized the importance of communicating uncertainties to stakeholders, implementing data-driven management strategies, setting realistic goals, and revising management actions in an adaptive framework. There was universal agreement on both the challenge and necessity of facilitating constructive engagement among stakeholders in cooperative decision making. Symposium participants identified knowledge gaps and discussed future efforts to build on our current understanding of percid populations, including continuation of long-term monitoring, improved standardization of evaluation metrics, implementing adaptive management experiments to identify causal relationships, development of more robust analytical methods, use of historical data sources, and refining techniques to realistically convey management options to stakeholders.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management

Desert grassland responses to climate and soil moisture suggest divergent vulnerabilities across the southwestern United States

Climate change predictions include warming and drying trends, which are expected to be particularly pronounced in the southwestern United States. In this region, grassland dynamics are tightly linked to available moisture, yet it has proven difficult to resolve what aspects of climate drive vegetation change. In part, this is because it is unclear how heterogeneity in soils affects plant responses to climate. Here, we combine climate and soil properties with a mechanistic soil water model to explain temporal fluctuations in perennial grass cover, quantify where and the degree to which incorporating soil water dynamics enhances our ability to understand temporal patterns, and explore the potential consequences of climate change by assessing future trajectories of important climate and soil water variables. Our analyses focused on long-term (20–56 years) perennial grass dynamics across the Colorado Plateau, Sonoran, and Chihuahuan Desert regions. Our results suggest that climate variability has negative effects on grass cover, and that precipitation subsidies that extend growing seasons are beneficial. Soil water metrics, including the number of dry days and availability of water from deeper (>30 cm) soil layers, explained additional grass cover variability. While individual climate variables were ranked as more important in explaining grass cover, collectively soil water accounted for 40–60% of the total explained variance. Soil water conditions were more useful for understanding the responses of C 3 than C 4 grass species. Projections of water balance variables under climate change indicate that conditions that currently support perennial grasses will be less common in the future, and these altered conditions will be more pronounced in the Chihuahuan Desert and Colorado Plateau. We conclude that incorporating multiple aspects of climate and accounting for soil variability can improve our ability to understand patterns, identify areas of vulnerability, and predict the future of desert grasslands.

Global Change Biology

The National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center annual report for 2013

In 2008, Congress created the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The center was formed to respond to the demands of natural resource managers for rigorous scientific information and effective tools for assessing and responding to climate change. Located at the USGS National Headquarters in Reston, Va., the NCCWSC has invested more than $93 million (through FY13) in cutting-edge climate change research and, in response to Secretarial Order No. 3289, established and is managing eight regional Department of Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs). In 2013: The DOI CSCs awarded nearly $7 million in funding to universities and other partners for climate and land-use change research. The scientific work of the NCCWSC-CSC enterprise moved toward projects that focus on &lsquo;Science Infrastructure and Capacity Building&rsquo; and &lsquo;Thematic Science&rsquo;. A permanent director, David Helweg, Ph.D., was hired for the Pacific Islands CSC (PI CSC), completing the CSC leadership team. Staff scientists were hired at the Alaska (AK), Northeast (NE), and Southeast (SE) CSCs. Each of the eight CSCs completed the formation of regional Stakeholder Advisory Committees (SACs) and a national advisory committee (ACCCNRS) was created to oversee the NCCWSC-CSC enterprise. NCCWSC staff worked on creating a searchable public database on climate change vulnerability assessments. NCCWSC scientists authored articles in a special issue of the Ecological Society of America&rsquo;s journal Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, which was devoted to an assessment of climate change effects on biodiversity and ecosystems, and the consequences for people. Learn more about these achievements in The National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center Annual Report for 2013 .

Circular

N and P constrain C in ecosystems under climate change: Role of nutrient redistribution, accumulation, and stoichiometry

We use the Multiple Element Limitation (MEL) model to examine responses of twelve ecosystems to elevated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), warming, and 20% decreases or increases in precipitation. Ecosystems respond synergistically to elevated CO 2 , warming, and decreased precipitation combined because higher water-use efficiency with elevated CO 2 and higher fertility with warming compensate for responses to drought. Response to elevated CO 2 , warming, and increased precipitation combined is additive. We analyze changes in ecosystem carbon (C) based on four nitrogen (N) and four phosphorus (P) attribution factors: (1) changes in total ecosystem N and P, (2) changes in N and P distribution between vegetation and soil, (3) changes in vegetation C:N and C:P ratios, and (4) changes in soil C:N and C:P ratios. In the combined CO 2 and climate change simulations, all ecosystems gain C. The contributions of these four attribution factors to changes in ecosystem C storage varies among ecosystems because of differences in the initial distributions of N and P between vegetation and soil and the openness of the ecosystem N and P cycles. The net transfer of N and P from soil to vegetation dominates the C response of forests. For tundra and grasslands, the C gain is also associated with increased soil C:N and C:P. In ecosystems with symbiotic N fixation, C gains resulted from N accumulation. Because of differences in N versus P cycle openness and the distribution of organic matter between vegetation and soil, changes in the N and P attribution factors do not always parallel one another. Differences among ecosystems in C-nutrient interactions and the amount of woody biomass interact to shape ecosystem C sequestration under simulated global change. We suggest that future studies quantify the openness of the N and P cycles and changes in the distribution of C, N, and P among ecosystem components, which currently limit understanding of nutrient effects on C sequestration and responses to elevated CO 2 and climate change.

Ecological Applications