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USGS2026

Toxicity of anticoagulant rodenticides on Pacific salmon: Assessing lethal and sublethal effects

To restore native biodiversity on island ecosystems containing invasive rodents, partial- and whole-island eradications generally rely on broadcast baiting with anticoagulant rodenticides (ARs). This approach can result in bait pellets entering aquatic environments, raising concerns about effects to non-target fish. Salmonids are a dominant group of fishes on many temperate islands targeted for rodent eradication, and AR toxicity data for salmonids are limited. Our goal was to determine if coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ) are susceptible to coagulopathy and death via exposure to commonly used ARs. We assessed risk of ARs to coho using dose-response curves generated through intraperitoneal injections after determining that coho would not directly ingest the AR baits. Median lethal doses (96-h LD 50 ) estimated using 100 % corn oil carrier were 85.7 µg/g for brodifacoum and 54.0 µg/g for diphacinone. Acetone (30–41 %), used to dissolve ARs in corn oil, reduced the toxicity of diphacinone (LD 50 = 102.3 µg/g, p < 0.001) but not brodifacoum (LD 50 = 73.3 µg/g, p = 0.126) indicating that solvent choice can influence toxicity outcomes. Behavioral changes and onset of mortality differed between the two ARs, with diphacinone acting more rapidly. Tissue analysis supported a difference in toxicokinetics between the two ARs, with significant decreases in liver and muscle residues for diphacinone but not brodifacoum. Sublethal brodifacoum exposure (53.9 µg/g; LD 13 ) impaired blood clotting at 72- and 96- h but returned to baseline by 120 h. No clotting impairment was observed up to 144 h after diphacinone exposure (45.5 µg/g; LD 4 ), suggesting a non-coagulopathy mode of action. These findings will inform risk assessments when considering use of these ARs for rodent management near streams and shorelines and clearly demonstrate that brodifacoum causes coagulopathy in coho.

Ecotoxciology and Environmental Safety↗

USGS2013

Improving tsunami resiliency: California's Tsunami Policy Working Group

California has established a Tsunami Policy Working Group to facilitate development of policy recommendations for tsunami hazard mitigation. The Tsunami Policy Working Group brings together government and industry specialists from diverse fields including tsunami, seismic, and flood hazards, local and regional planning, structural engineering, natural hazard policy, and coastal engineering. The group is acting on findings from two parallel efforts: The USGS SAFRR Tsunami Scenario project, a comprehensive impact analysis of a large credible tsunami originating from an M 9.1 earthquake in the Aleutian Islands Subduction Zone striking California’s coastline, and the State’s Tsunami Preparedness and Hazard Mitigation Program. The unique dual-track approach provides a comprehensive assessment of vulnerability and risk within which the policy group can identify gaps and issues in current tsunami hazard mitigation and risk reduction, make recommendations that will help eliminate these impediments, and provide advice that will assist development and implementation of effective tsunami hazard risk communication products to improve community resiliency.

California↗

USGS2025

Characterizing projected future droughts for south Florida (2056–2095)

Balance anomalies, defined as the deviation of monthly precipitation minus reference evapotranspiration from their long-term monthly historical means (1950–2005), were computed for regions in south Florida and temporally averaged over 6- and 12-month timescales to identify meteorological drought events during a historical (1950–2005) and future (2056–2095) period of interest for 40 CMIP5 general circulation models (GCM) and scenario combinations downscaled by the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs method. Under the assumption of stomatal resistance ( r s ) remaining constant at the historical standard value (70 s/m), 81% of models project declines in monthly balance anomalies in the future compared to historical, with multimodel ensemble mean declines of 3.7 in/year under RCP4.5 and 8.7 in/year under RCP8.5. Drought events were identified from the downscaled model projections, their characteristics (duration and intensity) extracted, and their historical joint distributions validated against those derived from historical observational datasets. The future joint distributions of drought characteristics were compared across models using hierarchical clustering. A climate model summary plot and table were developed based on these methods to guide climate model selection for hydrologic modeling in support of water-supply planning at the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD). The model summary plot for the entire SFWMD shows that 35% of GCM/training-dataset combinations have historical joint distributions of drought characteristics that are significantly different at the 10% level from those derived from observational gridded data, whereas 39% of GCM/scenario/training-dataset combinations have future joint distributions that are significantly different from historical. A sensitivity analysis was performed assuming r s increasing with increasing CO 2 .

Florida↗

USGS2023

Structured decision making remains underused in ecological restoration despite opportunities

Ecological restoration is considered an essential activity as we attempt to repair anthropogenic degradation. Yet, resources are limited and it is important that efforts focus on activities that are effective and yield successful restoration. Structured decision making (SDM) is an organized framework that is designed to incorporate differing values across stakeholders and evaluate alternatives. The SDM framework typically consists of six steps: define the decision problem, define objectives and evaluation criteria, develop alternatives, estimate consequences, evaluate trade-offs, and decide, implement, and monitor. Here, we posit that SDM is well suited for ecological restoration, yet remains underused. Specifically, tools such as stakeholder surveys, conceptual modeling, and multi-criteria decision analysis are notably useful in ecological restoration and can be applied under the SDM framework to ensure robust and transparent decision making. We illustrate the application of SDM to ecological restoration with case studies that used SDM alongside ecosystem service assessments, for species-as-risk management, and to assess action desirability across large and diverse stakeholder groups. Finally, we demonstrate how SDM is equipped to handle many of the challenges associated with ecological restoration by identifying commonalities. We contend that increased use of SDM for ecological restoration by environmental managers has the potential to yield wise use of limited resources and more effective restoration outcomes.

Environment Systems and Decisions↗

USGS2018

A tool for efficient, model-independent management optimization under uncertainty

To fill a need for risk-based environmental management optimization, we have developed PESTPP-OPT, a model-independent tool for resource management optimization under uncertainty. PESTPP-OPT solves a sequential linear programming (SLP) problem and also implements (optional) efficient, “on-the-fly” (without user intervention) first-order, second-moment (FOSM) uncertainty techniques to estimate model-derived constraint uncertainty. Combined with a user-specified risk value, the constraint uncertainty estimates are used to form chance-constraints for the SLP solution process, so that any optimal solution includes contributions from model input and observation uncertainty. In this way, a “single answer” that includes uncertainty is yielded from the modeling analysis. PESTPP-OPT uses the familiar PEST/PEST++ model interface protocols, which makes it widely applicable to many modeling analyses. The use of PESTPP-OPT is demonstrated with a synthetic, integrated surface-water/groundwater model. The function and implications of chance constraints for this synthetic model are discussed.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗

USGS2020

Climate has contrasting direct and indirect effects on armed conflicts

There is an active debate regarding the influence that climate has on the risk of armed conflict, which stems from challenges in assembling unbiased datasets, competing hypotheses on the mechanisms of climate influence, and the difficulty of disentangling direct and indirect climate effects. We use gridded historical non-state conflict records, satellite data, and land surface models in a structural equation modeling approach to uncover the direct and indirect effects of climate on violent conflicts in Africa and the Middle East (ME). We show that climate–conflict linkages in these regions are more complex than previously suggested, with multiple mechanisms at work. Warm temperatures and low rainfall direct effects on conflict risk were stronger than indirect effects through food and water supplies. Warming increases the risk of violence in Africa but unexpectedly decreases this risk in the ME. Furthermore, at the country level, warming decreases the risk of violence in most West African countries. Overall, we find a non-linear response of conflict to warming across countries that depends on the local temperature conditions. We further show that magnitude and sign of the effects largely depend on the scale of analysis and geographical context. These results imply that extreme caution should be exerted when attempting to explain or project local climate–conflict relationships based on a single, generalized theory.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2010

A new process for organizing assessments of social, economic, and environmental outcomes: Case study of wildland fire management in the USA

Ecological risk assessments typically are organized using the processes of planning (a discussion among managers, stakeholders, and analysts to clarify ecosystem management goals and assessment scope) and problem formulation (evaluation of existing information to generate hypotheses about adverse ecological effects, select assessment endpoints, and develop an analysis plan). These processes require modification to be applicable for integrated assessments that evaluate ecosystem management alternatives in terms of their ecological, economic, and social consequences. We present 8 questions that define the steps of a new process we term integrated problem formulation (IPF), and we illustrate the use of IPF through a retrospective case study comparing 2 recent phases of development of the Fire Program Analysis (FPA) system, a planning and budgeting system for the management of wildland fire throughout publicly managed lands in the United States. IPF extends traditional planning and problem formulation by including the explicit comparison of management alternatives, the valuation of ecological, economic and social endpoints, and the combination or integration of those endpoints. The phase 1, limited-prototype FPA system used a set of assessment endpoints of common form (i.e., probabilities of given flame heights over acres of selected land-resource types), which were specified and assigned relative weights at the local level in relation to a uniform national standard. This approach was chosen to permit system-wide optimization of fire management budget allocations according to a cost-effectiveness criterion. Before full development, however, the agencies abandoned this approach in favor of a phase 2 system that examined locally specified (rather than system-optimized) allocation alternatives and was more permissive as to endpoint form. We demonstrate how the IPF process illuminates the nature, rationale, and consequences of these differences, and argue that its early use for the FPA system may have enabled a smoother development path.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management↗

USGS2000

Nest predation on black-tailed prairie dog colonies

Nest predation is the principal cause of mortality for many grassland birds. Predation rates may be higher on prairie dog colonies because they may have less available nesting cover and may increase predator abundance. We compared 14-day nest predation rates for 1,764 artificial nests on 102 black-tailed prairie dog ( Cynomys ludovicianus ) colonies and their paired off-colony sites (similar habitat lacking prairie dogs) from 14 May to 26 June 1998 in South Dakota and Wyoming. Predation rates on colonies (66.2 ± 2.2%; x̄ ± SE) were 29.5% higher than at off-colony sites (51.1 ± 2.7%). Nesting cover on colonies was less dense and more uniform in structure and regression analysis showed differences in nest predation rates were correlated with estimates of mean nesting cover. Avian species associated with prairie dog colonies had smaller clutches and more broods/year than species associated with off-colony sites, suggesting a mechanism that may help compensate for increased risk of nest failure. Factors that influence predator-prey dynamics (e.g., habitat fragmentation) or foraging success (e.g., insect availability) also may help explain higher risk of nest predation on prairie dog colonies. Our conclusions support others in recommending protection of large, intact prairie dog ecosystems.

Colorado, South Dakota, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2014

Methods for estimating magnitude and frequency of 1-, 3-, 7-, 15-, and 30-day flood-duration flows in Arizona

Large floods have historically caused extensive damage in Arizona. Although peak-flow frequency estimates are required for managing the risk posed by floods, estimates of the frequency of sustained flood flow (flood-duration flow) are also useful for planning and assessing the adequacy of retention and conveyance structures and for water-resource planning. This report presents a flood-duration flow frequency analysis for selected durations (1 day, 3 day, 7 day, 15 day, and 30 day) at 173 streamgaging stations throughout Arizona and in western New Mexico. For each n -day duration, a log-Pearson type III distribution was fitted to the annual series of n -day flood-duration flows using the expected moments algorithm with a multiple Grubbs-Beck low-outlier test. Regional skews were developed independently for each n -day duration using a hybrid weighted least squares/generalized least squares method. No basin characteristics were found to adequately explain variation in skew among stations and a constant statewide skew model was used for all n -day durations. The regional skewness coefficient is negative for all n -day durations and becomes increasingly negative for longer n -day durations. Uncertainty associated with the skewness coefficient is estimated using a Bayesian generalized least squares technique. Regression equations, which allow predictions of n -day flood-duration flows for selected annual exceedance probabilities at ungaged sites, were developed using generalized least-squares regression and flood-duration flow frequency estimates at 56 streamgaging stations within a single, relatively uniform physiographic region in the central part of Arizona, between the Colorado Plateau and Basin and Range Province, called the Transition Zone. Drainage area explained most of the variation in the n -day flood-duration annual exceedance probabilities, but mean annual precipitation and mean elevation were also significant variables in the regression models. Standard error of prediction for the regression equations varies from 28 to 53 percent and generally decreases with increasing n -day duration. Outside the Transition Zone there are insufficient streamgaging stations to develop regression equations, but flood-duration flow frequency estimates are presented at select streamgaging stations.

Arizona↗

USGS2022

Applying consequence-driven scenario selection to lifelines

We present a new consequence-driven framework for earthquake scenario selection. For emergency managers, utility operators, policy makers, and other stakeholders, a scenario-based seismic risk assessment is often necessary for the purpose of emergency management and planning. In developing a scientifically defensible scenario, stakeholders can simulate a realistic event in order to pre-identify vulnerabilities in the system and support action to address these vulnerabilities. Selecting scenarios is particularly challenging for important population centers and critical infrastructure in stable tectonic environments, such as in the central and eastern United States, where uncertain long-term seismicity and unknown faults offer inadequate constraints. Notably, significant events in these so-called stable regions do occur (e.g., Nahanni, Canada, 1985, M6.9; Tennant Creek, Australia, 1998, M6.7). In regions of low seismicity, even moderate events can be consequential due to the higher vulnerability of buildings typical of such regions when compared to regions of higher seismicity. Furthermore, communicating seismic risk to stakeholders and the general public in these regions can be especially challenging due to the complexities of characterizing the hazard level. This framework has been developed to address these challenges for scenario selection in low seismic hazard regions. In this new approach, the analysis begins instead with the explicit definition of a consequence of concern to the specific stakeholder. This can range from a definition of loss (in lives, dollars, or another metric of interest), or a performance metric for critical infrastructure. The framework leverages United States Geological Survey software to run the hazard and consequence analysis. Driven by this stakeholder-defined consequence, an inversion analysis generates a complete event set of candidate scenarios that could breach this consequence. The final selection of a scenario, or family of scenarios, is then scientifically informed, but not limited by our lack of constraints in characterizing the hazard.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2016

Wintering Sandhill Crane exposure to wind energy development in the central and southern Great Plains, USA

Numerous wind energy projects have been constructed in the central and southern Great Plains, USA, the main wintering area for midcontinental Sandhill Cranes (Grus canadensis). In an initial assessment of the potential risks of wind towers to cranes, we estimated spatial overlap, investigated potential avoidance behavior, and determined the habitat associations of cranes. We used data from cranes marked with platform transmitting terminals (PTTs) with and without global positioning system (GPS) capabilities. We estimated the wintering distributions of PTT-marked cranes prior to the construction of wind towers, which we compared with current tower locations. Based on this analysis, we found 7% spatial overlap between the distributions of cranes and towers. When we looked at individually marked cranes, we found that 52% would have occurred within 10 km of a tower at some point during winter. Using data from cranes marked after tower construction, we found a potential indication of avoidance behavior, whereby GPS-marked cranes generally used areas slightly more distant from existing wind towers than would be expected by chance. Results from a habitat selection model suggested that distances between crane locations and towers may have been driven more by habitat selection than by avoidance, as most wind towers were constructed in locations not often selected by wintering cranes. Our findings of modest regional overlap and that few towers have been placed in preferred crane habitat suggest that the current distribution of wind towers may be of low risk to the continued persistence of wintering midcontinental Sandhill Cranes in the central and southern Great Plains.

Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas↗

USGS2005

Guiding principles of USGS methodology for assessment of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources

During the last 30 years, the methodology for assessment of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources used by the Geological Survey has undergone considerable change. This evolution has been based on five major principles. First, the U.S. Geological Survey has responsibility for a wide range of U.S. and world assessments and requires a robust methodology suitable for immaturely explored as well as maturely explored areas. Second, the assessments should be based on as comprehensive a set of geological and exploration history data as possible. Third, the perils of methods that solely use statistical methods without geological analysis are recognized. Fourth, the methodology and course of the assessment should be documented as transparently as possible, within the limits imposed by the inevitable use of subjective judgement. Fifth, the multiple uses of the assessments require a continuing effort to provide the documentation in such ways as to increase utility to the many types of users. Undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources are those recoverable volumes in undiscovered, discrete, conventional structural or stratigraphic traps. The USGS 2000 methodology for these resources is based on a framework of assessing numbers and sizes of undiscovered oil and gas accumulations and the associated risks. The input is standardized on a form termed the Seventh Approximation Data Form for Conventional Assessment Units. Volumes of resource are then calculated using a Monte Carlo program named Emc2, but an alternative analytic (non-Monte Carlo) program named ASSESS also can be used. The resource assessment methodology continues to change. Accumulation-size distributions are being examined to determine how sensitive the results are to size-distribution assumptions. The resource assessment output is changing to provide better applicability for economic analysis. The separate methodology for assessing continuous (unconventional) resources also has been evolving. Further studies of the relationship between geologic models of conventional and continuous resources will likely impact the respective resource assessment methodologies. ?? 2005 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2019

Using maintenance records from a long-term sensor monitoring network to evaluate the relationship between maintenance schedule and data quality

Sensor-based environmental monitoring networks are beginning to provide the large-scale, long-term data required to address important fundamental and applied questions in ecology. However, the data quality from deployed sensors can be difficult and costly to ensure. In this study, we use maintenance records from the 12-year history of Louisiana’s Coastwide Reference Monitoring System (CRMS) to assess the relationship between various dimensions of data quality and the frequency of field visits to the sensors. We use hierarchical Bayesian models to estimate the probability of missing data, the probability that a corrective offset of the sensor is required, and the magnitude of required offsets for water elevation and salinity data. We compared these estimates to predetermined risk thresholds to the help identify maintenance schedules that balanced the efficient use of labor resources without sacrificing data quality. We found that the relationship between data quality and increasing maintenance interval varied across metrics. Additionally, for most metrics, the maintenance interval when the metric’s credible interval and risk threshold intersected varied throughout the year and with wetland type. These results suggest that complex maintenance schedules, in which field visits vary in frequency throughout the year and with environmental context, are likely to provide the best tradeoff between labor cost and data quality. This analysis demonstrates that quantitative assessment of maintenance records can positively impact the sustainability of long-term data collection projects by helping identify new potential efficiencies in monitoring program management.

Louisiana↗

USGS2016

Comparison of remote sensing indices for monitoring of desert cienegas

This research considers the applicability of different vegetation indices at 30 m resolution for mapping and monitoring desert wetland (cienega) health and spatial extent through time at Cienega Creek in southeastern Arizona, USA. Multiple stressors including the risk of decadal-scale drought, the effects of current and predicted global warming, and continued anthropogenic pressures threaten aquatic habitats in the southwest and cienegas are recognized as important sites for conservation and restoration efforts. However, cienegas present a challenge to satellite-imagery based analysis due to their small size and mixed surface cover of open water, exposed soils, and vegetation. We created time series of five well-known vegetation indices using annual Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images retrieved during the April–June dry season, from 1984 to 2011 to map landscape-level distribution of wetlands and monitor the temporal dynamics of individual sites. Indices included the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and the Normalized Difference Infrared Index (NDII). One topographic index, the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), was analyzed to examine the utility of topography in mapping distribution of cienegas. Our results indicate that the NDII, calculated using Landsat TM band 5, outperforms the other indices at differentiating cienegas from riparian and upland sites, and was the best means to analyze change. As such, it offers a critical baseline for future studies that seek to extend the analysis of cienegas to other regions and time scales, and has broader applicability to the remote sensing of wetland features in arid landscapes.

Arizona↗

USGS2014

The effects of hydropattern and predator communities on amphibian occupancy

Complex, interactive ecological constraints regulate species distributions, and understanding these factors is crucial for predicting species persistence. We used occupancy analysis, which corrects for imperfect detection, to test the importance of abiotic and biotic habitat and landscape factors on probability of occupancy by Boreal Chorus Frog ( Pseudacris maculata (Agassiz, 1850)) tadpoles. We hypothesized that hydropattern and predators are primarily important because they affect desiccation and predation risk and can interact in ways difficult to predict. We surveyed 62 wetland sites across an elevational gradient in Colorado, USA, and modeled patterns in P. maculata occupancy. Tadpoles were most frequently present in intermediate-length hydropattern systems with lower desiccation risk and no predatory fish because of occasional drying. Pseudacris maculata occupancy had a strong negative relationship with fish presence, while tadpoles, odonate larvae, and Barred Tiger Salamanders ( Ambystoma mavortium mavortium Baird, 1850) frequently co-occurred. Dry seasonal conditions will likely result in fewer intermediate-length hydropattern ponds available for amphibian breeding. We hypothesize that this will force P. maculata to breed in habitats with fish. As habitats shrink, predators that co-occur with P. maculata are expected to concentrate in the remaining habitat and increase predation risk for developing tadpoles (assuming predators are similarly constricted in their habitat use as amphibians are).

Colorado↗

USGS2006

Statistical characteristics of storm interevent time, depth, and duration for eastern New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas

The design of small runoff-control structures, from simple floodwater-detention basins to sophisticated best-management practices, requires the statistical characterization of rainfall as a basis for cost-effective, risk-mitigated, hydrologic engineering design. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation, has developed a framework to estimate storm statistics including storm interevent times, distributions of storm depths, and distributions of storm durations for eastern New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. The analysis is based on hourly rainfall recorded by the National Weather Service. The database contains more than 155 million hourly values from 774 stations in the study area. Seven sets of maps depicting ranges of mean storm interevent time, mean storm depth, and mean storm duration, by county, as well as tables listing each of those statistics, by county, were developed. The mean storm interevent time is used in probabilistic models to assess the frequency distribution of storms. The Poisson distribution is suggested to model the distribution of storm occurrence, and the exponential distribution is suggested to model the distribution of storm interevent times. The four-parameter kappa distribution is judged as an appropriate distribution for modeling the distribution of both storm depth and storm duration. Preference for the kappa distribution is based on interpretation of L-moment diagrams. Parameter estimates for the kappa distributions are provided. Separate dimensionless frequency curves for storm depth and duration are defined for eastern New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. Dimension is restored by multiplying curve ordinates by the mean storm depth or mean storm duration to produce quantile functions of storm depth and duration. Minimum interevent time and location have slight influence on the scale and shape of the dimensionless frequency curves. Ten example problems and solutions to possible applications are provided.

New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas↗

USGS2021

Occurrence and distribution of mercury in streams and reservoirs in the Triangle Area of North Carolina, July 2007–June 2009

During the time period 2001–2006, the U.S. Geological Survey reported mercury-concentration measurements that exceeded the North Carolina water-quality criterion (NCWQC) of 0.012 microgram per liter for total recoverable mercury in streams and reservoirs across the Triangle Area of North Carolina. Mercury data were sparse, however, generally consisting of only one or two water samples per year. Additional monitoring and data analysis were needed to better determine the occurrence and distribution of mercury in the Triangle Area for all seasons and waterbody types as well as associations between mercury concentrations and water-quality and land-use parameters. Water at fifteen reservoir and 14 stream sites across the Triangle Area was sampled at various times between August 2007 and June 2009, with water samples collected from both the surfaces and bottoms of the water columns in reservoirs and from the surfaces of streams. A bed sediment sample was also collected at all reservoir sites and at all but one stream site. A total of 301 water samples was collected at reservoir sites. Filtered and total recoverable mercury were detected in at least one water sample collected from each reservoir site. A total of 77 water samples was collected from stream sites with filtered mercury detected in samples from one-half of these sites, and total recoverable mercury detected in at least one water sample from all but two sites. Total recoverable and filtered mercury concentrations exceeded the NCWQC for mercury more frequently in reservoir than in stream samples. Differences in sampling frequencies among seasons and between streams and reservoirs, however, may have negatively biased overall estimates of mercury concentrations in streams relative to reservoirs. Filtered mercury concentrations in surface-water samples from reservoirs and total recoverable mercury concentrations in bottom samples from reservoirs were highest in the fall, whereas no seasonal trends in filtered or total recoverable mercury were detected from stream samples. Total mercury concentrations were calculated for the bulk sample on the basis of the percentage of the grains in the bulk sample whose diameters that were smaller than 0.0625 millimeters. Total mercury concentrations in bed sediment were generally higher for samples from reservoir sites compared to streams sites, although the highest total mercury concentration in bed sediment was from a stream site. Concentrations of total recoverable mercury in water samples from stream sites all fell within the general range for streams and lakes without on-site significant anthropogenic sources (for example, mercury mines or industrial pollution), whereas samples collected from eight reservoir sites had total mercury concentrations in a range characteristic of sites affected by mercury mines or industrial pollution. Results suggested that litterfall may be a source of mercury in streams, whereas atmospheric deposition is likely a dominant source for reservoirs; however, high concentrations of filtered and total recoverable mercury concentrations in the fall season in some reservoir-water samples may warrant further analysis of potential hydrologic factors. Mercury concentrations in all water and bed sediment samples were below levels expected to cause adverse effects to humans and aquatic biota, indicating that mercury levels at the study sites in the Triangle Area were unlikely to cause an immediate health risk to humans or aquatic organisms. The high variability among several sample replicates for total recoverable mercury, however, indicated that inferences from total recoverable mercury concentrations can be tenuous.

North Carolina↗

USGS2016

Predation by Northern Pikeminnow and tiger muskellunge on juvenile salmonids in a high–head reservoir: Implications for anadromous fish reintroductions

The feasibility of reintroducing anadromous salmonids into reservoirs above high-head dams is affected by the suitability of the reservoir habitat for rearing and the interactions of the resident fish with introduced fish. We evaluated the predation risk to anadromous salmonids considered for reintroduction in Merwin Reservoir on the North Fork Lewis River in Washington State for two reservoir use-scenarios: year-round rearing and smolt migration. We characterized the role of the primary predators, Northern Pikeminnow Ptychocheilus oregonensis and tiger muskellunge (Northern Pike Esox lucius × Muskellunge E. masquinongy ), by using stable isotopes and stomach content analysis, quantified seasonal, per capita predation using bioenergetics modeling, and evaluated the size and age structures of the populations. We then combined these inputs to estimate predation rates of size-structured population units. Northern Pikeminnow of FL ≥ 300 mm were highly cannibalistic and exhibited modest, seasonal, per capita predation on salmonids, but they were disproportionately much less abundant than smaller, less piscivorous, conspecifics. The annual predation on kokanee Oncorhynchus nerka (in biomass) by a size-structured unit of 1,000 Northern Pikeminnow having a FL ≥ 300 mm was analogous to 16,000–40,000 age-0 spring Chinook Salmon O. tshawytscha rearing year-round, or 400–1,000 age-1 smolts migrating April–June. The per capita consumption of salmonids by Northern Pikeminnow having a FL ≥ 200 mm was relatively low, due in large part to spatial segregation during the summer and the skewed size distribution of the predator population. Tiger muskellunge fed heavily on Northern Pikeminnow, other nonsalmonids, and minimally on salmonids. In addition to cannibalism within the Northern Pikeminnow population, predation by tiger muskellunge likely contributed to the low recruitment of larger (more piscivorous) Northern Pikeminnow, thereby decreasing the risk of predation to salmonids. This study highlights the importance of evaluating trophic interactions within reservoirs slated for reintroduction with anadromous salmonids, as they can be functional migration corridors and may offer profitable juvenile-rearing habitats despite hosting abundant predator populations.

Washington↗