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Sr/Ca proxy sea-surface temperature reconstructions from modern and holocene Montastraea faveolata specimens from the Dry Tortugas National Park

Sr/Ca ratios from skeletal samples from two Montastraea faveolata corals (one modern, one Holocene, ~6 Ka) from the Dry Tortugas National Park were measured as a proxy for sea-surface temperature (SST). We sampled coral specimens with a computer-driven triaxial micromilling machine, which yielded an average of 15 homogenous samples per annual growth increment. We regressed Sr/Ca values from resulting powdered samples against a local SST record to obtain a calibration equation of Sr/Ca = -0.0392 SST + 10.205, R = -0.97. The resulting calibration was used to generate a 47-year modern (1961-2008) and a 7-year Holocene (~6 Ka) Sr/Ca subannually resolved proxy record of SST. The modern M. faveolata yields well-defined annual Sr/Ca cycles ranging in amplitude from ~0.3 and 0.5 mmol/mol. The amplitude of ~0.3 to 0.5 mmol/mol equates to a 10-15°C seasonal SST amplitude, which is consistent with available local instrumental records. Summer maxima proxy SSTs calculated from the modern coral Sr/ Ca tend to be fairly stable: most SST maxima from 1961–2008 are 29°C ± 1°C. In contrast, winter minimum SST calculated in the 47-year modern time-series are highly variable, with a cool interval in the early to mid-1970s. The Holocene (~6 Ka) Montastraea faveolata coral also yields distinct annual Sr/Ca cycles with amplitudes ranging from ~0.3 to 0.6 mmol/mol. Absolute Sr/Ca values and thus resulting SST estimates over the ~7-year long record are similar to those from the modern coral. We conclude that Sr/Ca from Montastraea faveolata has high potential for developing subannually resolved Holocene SST records.

Florida↗

Role of future reef growth on morphological response of coral reef islands to sea-level rise

Coral reefs are widely recognised for providing a natural breakwater effect that modulates erosion and flooding hazards on low‐lying sedimentary reef islands. Increased water depth across reef platforms due sea‐level rise (SLR) can compromise this breakwater effect and enhance island exposure to these hazards, but reef accretion in response to SLR may positively contribute to island resilience. Morphodynamic studies suggest that reef islands can adjust to SLR by maintaining freeboard (island crest elevation above still water level) through overwash deposition and island accretion, but the impact of different future reef accretion trajectories on the morphological response of islands remain unknown. Here we show, using a process‐based morphodynamic model, that, although reef growth significantly affects wave transformation processes and island morphology, it does not lead to decreased coastal flooding and island inundation. According to the model, reef islands evolve during SLR by attuning their elevation to the maximum wave runup and islands fronted by a growing reef platform attain lower elevations than those without reef growth, but have similar overwash regimes. The mean overwash discharge Q over across the island crest plays a key role in the ability of islands to keep up with SLR and maintain freeboard, with a Q over value of O (10 l m ‐1 s ‐1 ) separating island construction from destruction. Islands, therefore, can grow vertically to keep up with SLR via flooding and overwash if specific forcing and sediment supply conditions are met, offering hope for uninhabited and sparely populated islands. However, this physical island response will negatively impact infrastructure and assets on developed islands.

Journal of Geophysical Research--Earth Surface↗

Subduction zone geometry modulates the megathrust earthquake cycle: Magnitude, recurrence, and variability

Megathrust geometric properties exhibit some of the strongest correlations with maximum earthquake magnitude in global surveys of large subduction zone earthquakes, but the mechanisms through which fault geometry influences subduction earthquake cycle dynamics remain unresolved. Here, we develop 39 models of sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS) on variably-dipping planar and variably-curved nonplanar megathrusts using the volumetric, high-order accurate code tandem to account for fault curvature. We vary the dip, downdip curvature and width of the seismogenic zone to examine how slab geometry mechanically influences megathrust seismic cycles, including the size, variability, and interevent timing of earthquakes. Dip and curvature control characteristic slip styles primarily through their influence on seismogenic zone width: wider seismogenic zones allow shallowly-dipping megathrusts to host larger earthquakes than steeply-dipping ones. Under elevated pore pressure and less strongly velocity-weakening friction, all modeled fault geometries host uniform periodic ruptures. In contrast, shallowly-dipping and sharply-curved megathrusts host multi-period supercycles of slow-to-fast, small-to-large slip events under higher effective stresses and more strongly velocity-weakening friction. We discuss how subduction zones' maximum earthquake magnitudes may be primarily controlled by the dip and dimensions of the seismogenic zone, while second-order effects from structurally-derived mechanical heterogeneity modulate the recurrence frequency and timing of these events. Our results suggest that enhanced co- and interseismic strength and stress variability along the megathrust, such as induced near areas of high or heterogeneous fault curvature, limits how frequently large ruptures occur and may explain curved faults' tendency to host more frequent, smaller earthquakes than flat faults.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth↗

An improved procedure for detection and enumeration of walrus signatures in airborne thermal imagery

In recent years, application of remote sensing to marine mammal surveys has been a promising area of investigation for wildlife managers and researchers. In April 2006, the United States and Russia conducted an aerial survey of Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) using thermal infrared sensors to detect groups of animals resting on pack ice in the Bering Sea. The goal of this survey was to estimate the size of the Pacific walrus population. An initial analysis of the U.S. data using previously-established methods resulted in lower detectability of walrus groups in the imagery and higher variability in calibration models than was expected based on pilot studies. This paper describes an improved procedure for detection and enumeration of walrus groups in airborne thermal imagery. Thermal images were first subdivided into smaller 200 x 200 pixel "tiles." We calculated three statistics to represent characteristics of walrus signatures from the temperature histogram for each the. Tiles that exhibited one or more of these characteristics were examined further to determine if walrus signatures were present. We used cluster analysis on tiles that contained walrus signatures to determine which pixels belonged to each group. We then calculated a thermal index value for each walrus group in the imagery and used generalized linear models to estimate detection functions (the probability of a group having a positive index value) and calibration functions (the size of a group as a function of its index value) based on counts from matched digital aerial photographs. The new method described here improved our ability to detect walrus groups at both 2 m and 4 m spatial resolution. In addition, the resulting calibration models have lower variance than the original method. We anticipate that the use of this new procedure will greatly improve the quality of the population estimate derived from these data. This procedure may also have broader applicability to thermal infrared surveys of other wildlife species. Published by Elsevier B.V.

International Journal of Applied Earth Observation↗

Measurements of storm and nonstorm circulation in the northern Adriatic: October 2002 Through April 2003

Fifteen bottom-mounted Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers were deployed from October 2002 through April 2003 in the northern Adriatic Sea. Average transport from the portion of the Western Adriatic Current (WAC) along the Italian slope was 0.1470 ?? 0.0043 Sv, punctuated by bursts of more than twice that amount during storm events. Monthly means were calculated with times of strong wind-driven circulation excluded. These suggest a 2002/2003 seasonal separation consisting of October, December through February, and March through April. An extreme Po River flood influenced November conditions making seasonal categorization difficult. October generally had more kinetic energy and more vertical structure than other months, and near-inertial waves were more frequent in April and October. The Eastern Adriatic Current (EAC)/WAC (i.e. inflow/outflow) system was clearly present in the means for all months. The cyclonic gyre north of the Po River was present October through February. Generally, in the WAC, over 50% of kinetic energy came from vertically uniform monthly mean flows. Elsewhere, eddy kinetic energy was stronger than mean kinetic energy with 10-40% contributions for vertically uniform monthly mean flows, 40-60% for vertically uniform monthly varying flows, and 10-30% for vertically varying monthly varying flows. Mean currents for bora storms indicate enhancement of the EAC/WAC and the cyclonic northern gyre, a shift toward Kvarner Bay in EAC direction, a circulation null point south of the Po, and double-gyre bifurcation of flow at Istria. Strengthening of both the EAC and WAC also occurs during sirocco storms. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

A delayed action oscillator shared by biennial, interannual, and decadal signals in the Pacific Basin

Biennial, interannual, and decadal signals in the Pacific basin are observed to share patterns and evolution in covarying sea surface temperature (SST), 18??C isotherm depth (Z18), zonal surface wind (ZSW), and wind stress curl (WSC) anomalies from 1955 to 1999. Each signal has warm SST anomalies propagating slowly eastward along the equator, generating westerly ZSW anomalies in their wake. These westerly ZSW anomalies produce cyclonic WSC anomalies off the equator which pump baroclinic Rossby waves in the western/central tropical North Pacific Ocean. These Rossby waves propagate westward, taking ???6, ???12, and ???36 months to reach the western boundary near ???7??N, ???12??N, and ???18??N on biennial, interannual, and decadal period scales, respectively. There, they reflect as equatorial coupled waves, propagating slowly eastward in covarying SST, Z18, and ZSW anomalies, taking ???6, ???12, and ???24 months to reach the central/eastern equatorial ocean. These equatorial coupled waves produce a delayed-negative feedback to the warm SST anomalies there. The decrease in Rossby wave phase speed with latitude, the increase in meridional scale of equatorial SST anomalies with period scale, and the associated increase in latitude of Rossby wave forcing are consistent with the delayed action oscillator (DAO) model used to explain El Nin??o. However, this is not true of the western-boundary reflection of Rossby waves into slow equatorial coupled waves. This requires modification of the extant DAO model. We construct a modified DAO model, demonstrating how the various mechanisms and the size and sources of their delays yield the resulting frequency of each signal.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

Formation of fine sediment deposit from a flash flood river in the Mediterranean Sea

We identify the mechanisms controlling fine deposits on the inner-shelf in front of the Besòs River, in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. This river is characterized by a flash flood regime discharging large amounts of water (more than 20 times the mean water discharge) and sediment in very short periods lasting from hours to few days. Numerical model output was compared with bottom sediment observations and used to characterize the multiple spatial and temporal scales involved in offshore sediment deposit formation. A high-resolution (50 m grid size) coupled hydrodynamic-wave-sediment transport model was applied to the initial stages of the sediment dispersal after a storm-related flood event. After the flood, sediment accumulation was predominantly confined to an area near the coastline as a result of preferential deposition during the final stage of the storm. Subsequent reworking occurred due to wave-induced bottom shear stress that resuspended fine materials, with seaward flow exporting them toward the midshelf. Wave characteristics, sediment availability, and shelf circulation determined the transport after the reworking and the final sediment deposition location. One year simulations of the regional area revealed a prevalent southwestward average flow with increased intensity downstream. The circulation pattern was consistent with the observed fine deposit depocenter being shifted southward from the river mouth. At the southern edge, bathymetry controlled the fine deposition by inducing near-bottom flow convergence enhancing bottom shear stress. According to the short-term and long-term analyses, a seasonal pattern in the fine deposit formation is expected.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans↗

A Bayesian-based system to assess wave-driven flooding hazards on coral reef-lined coasts

Many low-elevation, coral reef-lined, tropical coasts are vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea level rise, and wave-induced flooding. The considerable morphological diversity of these coasts and the variability of the hydrodynamic forcing that they are exposed to make predicting wave-induced flooding a challenge. A process-based wave-resolving hydrodynamic model (XBeach Non-Hydrostatic, “XBNH”) was used to create a large synthetic database for use in a “Bayesian Estimator for Wave Attack in Reef Environments” (BEWARE), relating incident hydrodynamics and coral reef geomorphology to coastal flooding hazards on reef-lined coasts. Building on previous work, BEWARE improves system understanding of reef hydrodynamics by examining the intrinsic reef and extrinsic forcing factors controlling runup and flooding on reef-lined coasts. The Bayesian estimator has high predictive skill for the XBNH model outputs that are flooding indicators, and was validated for a number of available field cases. It was found that, in order to accurately predict flooding hazards, water depth over the reef flat, incident wave conditions, and reef flat width are the most essential factors, whereas other factors such as beach slope and bed friction due to the presence or absence of corals are less important. BEWARE is a potentially powerful tool for use in early warning systems or risk assessment studies, and can be used to make projections about how wave-induced flooding on coral reef-lined coasts may change due to climate change.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

Structure and stress state of Hawaiian island basalts penetrated by the Hawaii Scientific Drilling Project deep core hole

As part of the Hawaii Scientific Drilling Project (HSDP), an exploratory hole was drilled in 1993 to a depth of 1056 meters below sea level (mbsl) and a deeper hole was drilled to 3098 mbsl in 1999. A set of geophysical well logs was obtained in the deeper hole that provides fundamental information regarding the structure and the state of stress that exist within a volcanic shield. The acoustic televiewer generates digital, magnetically oriented images of the borehole wall, and inspection of this log yields a continuous record of fracture orientation with depth and also with age to 540 ka. The data depict a clockwise rotation in fracture strike through the surficial Mauna Loa basalts that settles to a constant heading in the underlying Mauna Kea rocks. This behavior reflects the depositional slope directions of lavas and the locations of volcanic sources relative to the drill site. The deviation log delineates the trajectory of the well bore in three-dimensional space. This path closely follows changes in fracture orientation with depth as the drill bit is generally prodded perpendicular to fracture strike during the drilling process. Stress-induced breakouts observed in the televiewer log identify the orientations ot the maximum and minimum horizontal principal stresses to be north-south and east-west, respectively. This stress state is attributed to the combination of a sharp break in onshore-offshore slope that reduces stress east-west and the emergence of Kilauea that increases stress north-south. Breakouts are extensive and appear over approximately 30% of the open hole. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Evaluation of an aerial survey of Pacific walruses

An aerial survey of Pacific walruses ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ) was evaluated to determine the reliability of estimates of population abundance. The probability of detecting groups of walruses on the pack ice remained uniform to at least 0.93 km from the flight line, whereas the probability of detection decreased significantly beyond 0.23 km for walruses in the water. Walruses were more abundant along the ice-edge zone between 162 and 165°W than in other areas of the Chukchi Sea during September 1975. Few walruses were observed in consolidated pack ice north of the ice-edge zone or in ice-free water to the south. More walrus groups and larger mean group size were observed on September 8 than on other days. We estimated abundance for each day and all days combined using methods based on sample area and numbers of strip samples. Estimates varied among days by over an order of magnitude; this variation is attributed to the combined effect of chance sampling of an aggregated population and variation in the fraction of walruses hauled out. The coefficient of variation of the estimates ranged between 0.25 and 0.99. This imprecision was due to the aggregated distribution of walruses and the large variation in group size. Using the survey data as a basis for stratification, we calculated that, due to the high variability within strata, a sample size of 40% of the total area or 56% of the total available strips would be required to obtain 95% confidence limits within 10% of the estimate of total abundance. Variation contributed by observer error in estimating group size also is relatively unimportant to the precision of abundance estimates. Studies of natural history, particularly those oriented toward activity and habitat selection, would help investigators estimate bias due to the variable fraction hauled out and design surveys based on meaningful strata. Estimates of total abundance based on limited survey efforts will provide information of little reliability.

Journal of the Fisheries Research Board of Canada↗

Reconstructing a mid-Cretaceous landscape from paleosols in western Canada

The Albian Stage of the mid-Cretaceous was a time of equable climate conditions with high sea levels and broad shallow epeiric seas that may have had a moderating affect on continental climates. A Late Albian landscape surface that developed during a regression and subsequent sea-level rise in the Western Canada Foreland Basin is reconstructed on the basis of correlation of paleosols penetrated by cores through the Paddy Member of the Peace River Formation. Reconstruction of this landscape refines chronostratigraphic relationships and will benefit future paleoclimatological studies milizing continental sphaerosiderite proxy records. The paleosols developed in estuarine sandstones and mudstones, and they exhibit evidence of a polygenetic history. Upon initial exposure and pedogenesis, the Paddy Member developed deeply weathered, well-drained cumulative soil profiles. Later stages of pedogenesis were characterized by hydromorphic soil conditions. The stages of soil development interpreted for the Paddy Member correlate with inferred stages of pedogenic development in time-equivalent formations located both basinward and downslope (upper Viking Formation), and landward and upslope (Boulder Creek Formation). On the basis of the genetic similarity among paleosols in these three correlative formations, the paleosols are interpreted as having formed along a single, continuous landscape surface. Results of this study indicate that the catena concept of pedogenesis along sloping landscapes is applicable to ancient successions. Sphaerosiderites in the Paddy Mem ber paleosols are used to provide proxy values for meteoric ??18O values at 52?? N paleolatitude in the Cretaceous Western Interior Basin. The meteoric ??18O values are used to refine existing interpretations about the mid-Cretaceous paleolatitudinal gradient in meteoric ?? 18O values, and the mid-Cretaceous hydrologic cycle. Copyright ?? 2005, SEPM (Society for Sedimentary Geology).

Journal of Sedimentary Research↗

Linking channel hydrology with riparian wetland accretion in tidal rivers

The hydrologic processes by which tide affects river channel and riparian morphology within the tidal freshwater zone are poorly understood, yet are fundamental to predicting the fate of coastal rivers and wetlands as sea level rises. We investigated patterns of sediment accretion in riparian wetlands along the non-tidal through oligohaline portion of two coastal plain rivers in Maryland, U.S.A., and how flow velocity, water level, and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in the channel may have contributed to those patterns. Sediment accretion was measured over a one year period using artificial marker horizons, channel hydrology was measured over a one month period using acoustic Doppler current profilers, and SSC was predicted from acoustic backscatter. Riparian sediment accretion was lowest at the non-tidal sites (mean and standard deviation = 8 ± 8 mm yr -1 ), highest at the upstream tidal freshwater forested wetlands (TFFW) (33 ± 28 mm yr -1 ), low at the midstream TFFW (12 ± 9 mm yr -1 ), and high at the oligohaline (fresh-to-brackish) marshes (19 ± 8 mm yr -1 ). Channel maximum flood and ebb velocity was 2-fold faster at the oligohaline than tidal freshwater zone on both tidal rivers, corresponding with the differences in in-channel SSC: the oligohaline zone's SSC was more than double the tidal freshwater zone's, and was greater than historical SSC at the non-tidal gages. The tidal wave characteristics differed between rivers, leading to significantly greater in-channel SSC during floodplain inundation in the weakly convergent than the strongly convergent tidal river. Overall sediment accretion was higher in the embayed river likely due to a single storm discharge and associated sedimentation.

Maryl↗

Atmospheric river storm flooding influences tidal marsh elevation building processes

Disturbances are a key component of ecological processes in coastal ecosystems. Investigating factors that affect tidal marsh accretion and elevation change is important, largely due to accelerating sea-level rise and the ecological and economic value of wetlands. Sediment accumulation rates, elevation change, and flooding were examined at five marshes along a riverine-tidal gradient in the northern San Francisco Bay-Delta, California, USA during an Atmospheric River storm event in 2017 using Surface Elevation Tables (SETs), feldspar marker horizons (MH), and continuous water-level sensors. Our results showed that localized marsh flooding increased during the storm event, but not evenly across sites. Marsh surface elevation increased the most at the tidal freshwater marsh site in response to the storms, with an average surface elevation gain of 45.6 ± 13.1 mm, and the least at a tidal saline marsh with an average surface elevation gain of 4.0 ± 1.2 mm. A marsh located on the large embayment did not exhibit an immediate response to the storm but had a surface elevation gain of 21.5 ± 13.7 mm 6 months after the storm. During the storm period, marsh distance to the bay was the strongest predictor of elevation change, followed by SET-MH elevations. Conversely, during non-storm periods, SET-MH elevation was a relatively strong predictor of elevation change. Atmospheric Rivers appear to be a major factor affecting short-term spatial and temporal variability in flooding and sedimentation rates in tidal marsh systems. Incorporating information about storms into monitoring could increase our understanding of how episodic storms can impact marshes.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗

Internal-wave currents as a mechanism to account for large sand waves in Navarinsky Canyon head, Bering Sea

Sand waves are found in the heads of four of five large submarine canyons that incise the northern continental margin of the Bering Sea. The sand waves occur in a restricted depth zone of about 175-490 m. Those in Navarinsky Canyon, the area surveyed in most detail, are best developed in water depths of 300-375 m; they average 5 m in height and about 650 m in wavelength, with crests oriented subparallel to isobaths and almost perpendicular to the axes of the two main branches of the canyon. We speculate that internal-wave currents are responsible for the sand waves. Currents generated by internal waves are a particularly attractive mechanism for at least three reasons: 1) the energy of the internal waves could be amplified in the head of Navarinsky Canyon, especially in the area of the sand wave field; 2) upslope boundary-layer intensification of internal-wave currents might be sufficient to move the sediment composing the sand waves; and 3) the wavelengths of higher-frequency internal waves closely match the spacing of the sand waves. Although we based our assumptions on present-day conditions, we do not know if the sand waves are active. Consequently, we do not discount the possibility that the sand waves could have originated in the Pleistocene when Navarinsky Canyon headed in a shallow embayment that was receiving large quantities of sediment discharged by glacial meltwater streams. These conditions probably caused strong vertical density gradients in the coastal waters, which would have been more favorable than those today for the propagation of high-frequency internal waves.

Journal of Sedimentary Research↗

Continental rupture and the creation of new crust in the Salton Trough rift, southern California and northern Mexico: Results from the Salton Seismic Imaging Project

A refraction and wide-angle reflection seismic profile along the axis of the Salton Trough, California and Mexico, was analyzed to constrain crustal and upper mantle seismic velocity structure during active continental rifting. From the northern Salton Sea to the southern Imperial Valley, the crust is 17-18 km thick and approximately one-dimensional. The transition at depth from Colorado River sediment to underlying crystalline rock is gradual and is not a depositional surface. The crystalline rock from ~3 to ~8 km depth is interpreted as sediment metamorphosed by high heat flow. Deeper felsic crystalline rock could be stretched pre-existing crust or higher grade metamorphosed sediment. The lower crust below ~12 km depth is interpreted to be gabbro emplaced by rift-related magmatic intrusion by underplating. Low upper-mantle velocity indicates high temperature and partial melting. Under the Coachella Valley, sediment thins to the north and the underlying crystalline rock is interpreted as granitic basement. Mafic rock does not exist at 12-18 depth as it does to the south, and a weak reflection suggests Moho at ~28 km depth. Structure in adjacent Mexico has slower mid-crustal velocity and rocks with mantle velocity must be much deeper than in the Imperial Valley. Slower velocity and thicker crust in the Coachella and Mexicali valleys define the rift zone between them to be >100 km wide in the direction of plate motion. North American lithosphere in the central Salton Trough has been rifted apart and is being replaced by new crust created by magmatism, sedimentation, and metamorphism.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

Light-toned salty soils and co-existing Si-rich species discovered by the Mars Exploration Rover Spirit in Columbia Hills

Light-toned soils were exposed, through serendipitous excavations by Spirit Rover wheels, at eight locations in the Columbia Hills. Their occurrences were grouped into four types on the basis of geomorphic settings. At three major exposures, the light-toned soils are hydrous and sulfate-rich. The spatial distributions of distinct types of salty soils vary substantially: with centimeter-scaled heterogeneities at Paso Robles, Dead Sea, Shredded, and Champagne-Penny, a well-mixed nature for light-toned soils occurring near and at the summit of Husband Hill, and relatively homogeneous distributions in the two layers at the Tyrone site. Aeolian, fumarolic, and hydrothermal fluid processes are suggested to be responsible for the deposition, transportation, and accumulation of these light-toned soils. In addition, a change in Pancam spectra of Tyrone yellowish soils was observed after being exposed to current Martian surface conditions for 175 sols. This change is interpreted to be caused by the dehydration of ferric sulfates on the basis of laboratory simulations and suggests a relative humidity gradient beneath the surface. Si-rich nodules and soils were observed near the major exposures of S-rich soils. They possess a characteristic feature in Pancam visible near-infrared (Vis-NIR) spectra that may be diagnostic of hydrated species, and this spectral feature can be used to search for additional Si-rich species. The exposures of hydrated salty soils within various geomorphic settings imply the potential existence of hydrous minerals in similar settings over a much wider area. Hydrous sulfates represent one of the candidates that may contribute the high level of water equivalent hydrogen in equatorial regions detected by the Neutron Spectrometer on Mars Odyssey.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

The impact of late Holocene land-use change, climate variability, and sea-level rise on carbon storage in tidal freshwater wetlands on the southeastern United States Coastal Plain

This study examines Holocene impacts of changes in climate, land use, and sea-level rise (SLR) on sediment accretion, carbon accumulation rates (CAR), and vegetation along a transect of tidal freshwater forested wetlands (TFFW) to oligohaline marsh along the Waccamaw River, South Carolina (4 sites) and along the Savannah River, Georgia (4 sites). We use pollen, plant macrofossils, accretion, and CAR from cores, spanning the last 1500-6000 years to test the hypothesis that TFFW have remained stable throughout the late Holocene and that marshes transitioned from TFFW during elevated SLR during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, with further transformation resulting from colonial land-use change. Results show low and stable accretion and CAR through much of the Holocene, despite moderate changes associated with Holocene paleoclimate. In all records, the largest observed change occurred within the last ~400 years, driven by colonial land clearance, shifting terrigenous sediment into riparian wetlands, resulting in order-of-magnitude increases in accretion and C accumulation. The oligohaline marshes transitioned from TFFW ~300-500 years ago, coincident with colonial land clearance. Post-colonial decreases in CAR and accretion occur because of watershed reforestation over the last century. All sites show evidence of recent (decades to century) swamp forest decline due to increasing salinity and tidal inundation from SLR. This study suggests that allochthonous sediment input during colonialization helped maintain TFFW, but that current SLR rates are too high for TFFW to persist, although higher accretion rates in oligohaline marshes increases the resilience of tidal wetlands as they transition from TFFW to marsh.

Georgia, South Carolina↗

Multi-decadal simulation of marsh topography evolution under sea level rise and episodic sediment loads

Coastal marsh within Mediterranean climate zones is exposed to episodic watershed runoff and sediment loads that occur during storm events. Simulating future marsh accretion under sea level rise calls for attention to: (a) physical processes acting over the time scale of storm events and (b) biophysical processes acting over time scales longer than storm events. Using the upper Newport Bay in Southern California as a case study, we examine the influence of event-scale processes on simulated change in marsh topography by comparing: (a) a biophysical model that integrates with an annual time step and neglects event-scale processes (BP-Annual), (b) a physical model that resolves event-scale processes but neglects biophysical interactions (P-Event), and (c) a biophysical model that resolves event-scale physical processes and biophysical processes at annual and longer time scales (BP-Event). A calibrated BP-Event model shows that large (>20-year return period) episodic storm events are major drivers of marsh accretion, depositing up to 30 cm of sediment in one event. Greater deposition is predicted near fluvial sources and tidal channels and less on marshes further from fluvial sources and tidal channels. In contrast, the BP-Annual model poorly resolves spatial structure in marsh accretion as a consequence of neglecting event-scale processes. Furthermore, the P-Event model significantly overestimates marsh accretion as a consequence of neglecting marsh surface compaction driven by annual scale biophysical processes. Differences between BP-Event and BP-Annual models translate up to 20 cm per century in marsh surface elevation.

California↗