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USGS2018

Chasing a changing climate: Reproductive and dispersal traits predict how sessile species respond to global warming

Aim Studies of species' range shifts have become increasingly relevant for understanding ecology and biogeography in the face of accelerated global change. The combination of limited mobility and imperilled status places some species at a potentially greater risk of range loss, extirpation or extinction due to climate change. To assess the ability of organisms with limited movement and dispersal capabilities to track shifts associated with climate change, we evaluated reproductive and dispersal traits of freshwater mussels (Unionida), sessile invertebrates that require species‐specific fish for larval dispersal. Location North American Atlantic Slope rivers. Methods To understand how unionid mussels may cope with and adapt to current and future warming trends, we identified mechanisms that facilitated their colonization of the northern Atlantic Slope river basins in North America after the Last Glacial Maximum. We compiled species occurrence and life history trait information for each of 55 species, and then selected life history traits for which ample data were available (larval brooding duration, host fish specificity, host infection strategy, and body size) and analysed whether the trait state for each was related to mussel distribution in Atlantic Slope rivers. Results Brooding duration ( p < .01) and host fish specificity ( p = .02) were significantly related to mussel species distribution. Long‐term brooders were more likely than short‐term brooders to colonize formerly glaciated rivers, as were host generalists compared to specialists. Body size and host infection strategy were not predictive of movement into formerly glaciated rivers ( p > .10). Main conclusions Our results are potentially applicable to many species for which life history traits have not been well‐documented, because reproductive and dispersal traits in unionid mussels typically follow phylogenetic relationships. These findings may help resource managers prioritize species according to climate change vulnerability and predict which species might become further imperilled with climate warming. Finally, we suggest that similar trait‐based decision support frameworks may be applicable for other movement limited taxa.

Diversity and Distributions↗

USGS2014

The role of reserves and anthropogenic elements for functional connectivity and resilience of ephemeral habitats

Ecological reserves provide important wildlife habitat in many landscapes, and the functional connectivity of reserves and other suitable habitat patches is crucial for the persistence and resilience of spatially structured populations. To maintain or increase connectivity at spatial scales larger than individual patches, conservation actions may focus on creating and maintaining reserves and/or influencing management on non-reserves. Using a graph-theoretic approach, we assessed the functional connectivity and spatial distribution of wetlands in the Rainwater Basin of Nebraska, USA, an intensively cultivated agricultural matrix, at four assumed, but ecologically realistic, anuran dispersal distances. We compared connectivity in the current landscape to the historical landscape and putative future landscapes, and evaluated the importance of individual and aggregated reserve and non-reserve wetlands for maintaining connectivity. Connectivity was greatest in the historical landscape, where wetlands were also the most densely distributed. The construction of irrigation reuse pits for water storage has maintained connectivity in the current landscape by replacing destroyed wetlands, but these pits likely provide suboptimal habitat. Also, because there are fewer total wetlands (i.e., wetlands and irrigation reuse pits) in the current landscape than the historical landscape, and because the distribution of current wetlands is less clustered than that of historical wetlands, larger and longer dispersing, sometimes nonnative species may be favored over smaller, shorter dispersing species of conservation concern. Because of their relatively low number, wetland reserves do not affect connectivity as greatly as non-reserve wetlands or irrigation reuse pits; however, they likely provide the highest quality anuran habitat. To improve future levels of resilience in this wetland habitat network, management could focus on continuing to improve the conservation status of non-reserve wetlands, restoring wetlands at spatial scales that promote movements of shorter dispersing species, and further scrutinizing irrigation reuse pit removal by considering effects on functional connectivity for anurans, an emblematic and threatened group of organisms. However, broader conservation plans will need to give consideration to other wetland-dependent species, incorporate invasive species management, and address additional challenges arising from global change in social-ecological systems like the Rainwater Basin.

Nebraska↗

USGS2021

Development and validation of a spatially-explicit agent-based model for space utilization by African savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana) based on determinants of movement

African elephants (Loxodonta africana) are well-studied and inhabit diverse landscapes that are being transformed by both humans and natural forces. Most tools currently in use are limited in their ability to predict how elephants will respond to novel changes in the environment. Individual-, or agent-based modeling (ABM), may extend current methods in addressing and predicting spatial responses to environmental conditions over time. We developed a spatially explicit agent-based model to simulate elephant space use and validated the model with movement data from elephants in Kruger National Park (KNP) and Chobe National Park (CNP). We simulated movement at an hourly scale, as this scale can reflect switches in elephant behavior due to changes in internal states and short-term responses to the local availability and distribution of critical resources, including forage, water, and shade. Known internal drivers of elephant movement, including perceived temperature and the time since an individual last visited a water source, were linked to the external environment through behavior-based movement rules. Simulations were run on model landscapes representing the wet season and the hot, dry season for both parks. The model outputs, including home range size, daily displacement distance, net displacement distance, and maximum distance traveled from a permanent water source, were evaluated through qualitative and quantitative comparisons to actual elephant movement data from both KNP and CNP. The ABM was successful in reproducing the differences in daily displacements between seasons in each park, and in distances traveled from a permanent water source between parks and seasons. Other movement characteristics, including differences in home range sizes and net daily displacements, were partially reproduced. Out of the all the statistical comparisons made between the empirical and simulated movement patterns, the majority were classified as discrepancies of medium or small effect size. We have shown that a resource-driven model with relatively simple decision rules generates trajectories with movement characteristics that are mostly comparable to those calculated from empirical data. Simulating hourly movement (as our model does) may be useful in predicting how finer-scale patterns of space use, such as those created by foraging movements, are influenced by finer spatio-temporal changes in the environment.

Chobe National Park, Kruger National Park↗

USGS2005

Stock structure of Lake Baikal omul as determined by whole-body morphology

In Lake Baikal, three morphotypes of omul Coregonus autumnalis migratorius are recognized; the littoral, pelagic, and deep-water forms. Morphotype assignment is difficult, and similar to that encountered in pelagic and deep-water coregonines in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Principal component analysis revealed separation of all three morphotypes based on caudal peduncle length and depth, length and depth of the body between the dorsal and anal fin, and distance between the pectoral and the pelvic fins. Strong negative loadings were associated with head measurements. Omul of the same morphotype captured at different locations were classified to location of capture using step-wise discriminant function analysis. Jackknife correct classifications ranged from 43 to 78% for littoral omul from five locations, and 45–86% for pelagic omul from four locations. Patterns of location misclassification of littoral omul suggested that the sub-population structure, hence stock affinity, may be influenced by movements and intermixing of individuals among areas that are joined bathymetrically. Pelagic omul were more distinguishable by site and may support a previous hypothesis of a spawning-based rather than a foraging-based sub-population structure. Omul morphotypes may reflect adaptations to both ecological and local environmental conditions, and may have a genetic basis.

Journal of Fish Biology↗

USGS2020

Cryptic lives of conspicuous animals: Otolith chemistry chronicles life histories of coastal lagoon fishes

Bar-built coastal lagoons are dynamic ecosystems at the land-sea interface that are important habitats for a variety of species. This study examined the habitat ecology of two lagoon species, the endangered Tidewater Goby ( Eucyclogobius newberryi ) and the Prickly Sculpin ( Cottus asper ) by reconstructing individual life histories from patterns in the concentration of the element Sr (as ratioed to Ca; Sr:Ca) in otoliths. Specific objectives were to (1) elucidate any movements of individual fishes among three primary habitat components of typical bar-built lagoon systems: coastal ocean, brackish lagoon, and freshwater watershed streams, and (2) determine if either species exhibited a consistent life history as defined by a stereotypical otolith Sr:Ca chronology, which could be indicative of a consistent range of salinity or temperature occupied through ontogeny. Results suggested that Tidewater Goby was a lagoon resident and that Prickly Sculpin exhibited migrations between lagoon and watershed stream habitats. There was no strong evidence in either species of ocean occupancy or of a stereotypical Sr:Ca chronology, the latter suggesting the full range of available lagoon habitat in terms of salinity and temperature was likely utilized at all life stages. These findings add to the body of evidence that bar-built lagoons are not isolated habitats, and holistic management of these habitats with adjoining watershed and marine environments could increase habitat connectivity across the landscape, with potential benefits to fishes.

California↗

USGS2008

A hierarchical model for spatial capture-recapture data

Estimating density is a fundamental objective of many animal population studies. Application of methods for estimating population size from ostensibly closed populations is widespread, but ineffective for estimating absolute density because most populations are subject to short-term movements or so-called temporary emigration. This phenomenon invalidates the resulting estimates because the effective sample area is unknown. A number of methods involving the adjustment of estimates based on heuristic considerations are in widespread use. In this paper, a hierarchical model of spatially indexed capture recapture data is proposed for sampling based on area searches of spatial sample units subject to uniform sampling intensity. The hierarchical model contains explicit models for the distribution of individuals and their movements, in addition to an observation model that is conditional on the location of individuals during sampling. Bayesian analysis of the hierarchical model is achieved by the use of data augmentation, which allows for a straightforward implementation in the freely available software WinBUGS. We present results of a simulation study that was carried out to evaluate the operating characteristics of the Bayesian estimator under variable densities and movement patterns of individuals. An application of the model is presented for survey data on the flat-tailed horned lizard (Phrynosoma mcallii) in Arizona, USA.

Ecology↗

USGS2022

Can we avert an Amazon tipping point? The economic and environmental costs

The Amazon biome is being pushed by unsustainable economic drivers towards an ecological tipping point where restoration to its previous state may no longer be possible. This degradation is the result of self-reinforcing interactions between deforestation, climate change and fire. We assess the economic, natural capital and ecosystem services impacts and trade-offs of scenarios representing movement towards an Amazon tipping point and strategies to avert one using the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform linked with spatial land use-land cover change and ecosystem services modeling (IEEM + ESM). Our approach provides the first approximation of the economic, natural capital and ecosystem services impacts of a tipping point, and evidence to build the economic case for strategies to avert it. For the five Amazon focal countries, namely, Brazil, Peru, Colombia, Bolivia and Ecuador, we find that a tipping point would create economic losses of US$256.6 billion in cumulative gross domestic product by 2050. Policies that would contribute to averting a tipping point, including strongly reducing deforestation, investing in intensifying agriculture in cleared lands, climate-adapted agriculture and improving fire management, would generate approximately US$339.3 billion in additional wealth and a return on investment of US$29.5 billion. Quantifying the costs, benefits and trade-offs of policies to avert a tipping point in a transparent and replicable manner can support the design of regional development strategies for the Amazon biome, build the business case for action and catalyze global cooperation and financing to enable policy implementation.

Amazon↗

USGS2024

Ecology of an insular snake assemblage in coastal Maine

Wildlife populations at the peripheries of their distributions or on isolated islands often display divergent and poorly understood morphological or life-history characteristics compared to core populations. We used a capture–mark–recapture dataset collected over a 19-year period to characterize a northern, insular snake assemblage in coastal Maine. We captured 611 individual snakes of 4 species ( Thamnophis sirtalis [Common Gartersnake; n = 221 individuals], Diadophis punctatus [Ring-necked Snake; n = 258 individuals], Storeria occipitomaculata [Red-bellied Snake; n = 81 individuals], and Opheodrys vernalis [Smooth Greensnake; n = 51 individuals]) and recorded 104 recaptures. We provide some of the first data on growth, reproduction, and movement for these species in northern New England, expanding our understanding of insular and northern snake populations. Specifically, we found that Common Gartersnakes fed primarily on earthworms and amphibians and grew rapidly, in accordance with mainland populations, but exhibited smaller size at maturity and average litter sizes. We captured an unusually large number of Ring-necked Snakes, which are uncommon elsewhere in Maine, and recorded an apparently localized nesting area for this species, as well as relatively long-distance (230–300 m) dispersal away from that location. In our population, female Ring-necked Snakes mature in their third year, and this species exhibits weak sexual size dimorphism (SSD). We found the ecology of Red-bellied Snakes at our study site to be similar to other populations, with individuals feeding on slugs, and females maturing in their second year; however, our population exhibited the strongest pattern of (female-biased) SSD. Smooth Greensnakes were restricted to the most extensive old-field habitat within our study site and fed on a variety of arthropods. We confirmed communal nesting and short incubation period for this species and provide among the first data on growth and longevity (at least 7 years) of this relatively understudied species.

Maine↗

USGS2016

Encounters with Pinyon-Juniper influence riskier movements in Greater Sage-Grouse across the Great Basin

Fine-scale spatiotemporal studies can better identify relationships between individual survival and habitat fragmentation so that mechanistic interpretations can be made at the population level. Recent advances in Global Positioning System (GPS) technology and statistical models capable of deconstructing high-frequency location data have facilitated interpretation of animal movement within a behaviorally mechanistic framework. Habitat fragmentation due to singleleaf pinyon (Pinus monophylla; hereafter pinyon) and Utah juniper (Juniperus osteosperma; hereafter juniper) encroachment into sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) communities is a commonly implicated perturbation that can adversely influence greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter sage-grouse) demographic rates. Using an extensive GPS data set (233 birds and 282,954 locations) across 12 study sites within the Great Basin, we conducted a behavioral change point analysis and subsequently constructed Brownian bridge movement models from each behaviorally homogenous section. We found a positive relationship between modeled movement rate and probability of encountering pinyon-juniper with significant variation among age classes. The probability of encountering pinyon-juniper among adults was two and three times greater than that of yearlings and juveniles, respectively. However, the movement rate in response to the probability of encountering pinyon-juniper trees was 1.5 times greater for juveniles. We then assessed the risk of mortality associated with an interaction between movement rate and the probability of encountering pinyon-juniper using shared frailty models. During pinyon-juniper encounters, on average, juvenile, yearling, and adult birds experienced a 10.4%, 0.2%, and 0.3% reduction in annual survival probabilities. Populations that used pinyon-juniper habitats with a frequency ≥ 3.8 times the overall mean experienced decreases in annual survival probabilities of 71.1%, 0.9%, and 0.9%. This analytical framework identifies a likely behavioral mechanism behind how pinyon-juniper encroachment decreases habitat suitability for sage-grouse, whereby encountering pinyon-juniper stimulates faster yet riskier movements that may make sage-grouse more vulnerable to visually acute predators.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗

USGS2018

Movers and stayers: Novel assemblages in changing environments

How species will respond to ongoing climate and other change is of increasing concern. Most attention is given to how species move or are moved, but many species stay. Understanding the dynamics of new species combinations is essential for successful conservation in a changing climate. Increased attention to species movement in response to environmental change highlights the need to consider changes in species distributions and altered biological assemblages. Such changes are well known from paleoecological studies, but have accelerated with ongoing pervasive human influence. In addition to species that move, some species will stay put, leading to an array of novel interactions. Species show a variety of responses that can allow movement or persistence. Conservation and restoration actions have traditionally focused on maintaining or returning species in particular places, but increasingly also include interventions that facilitate movement. Approaches are required that incorporate the fluidity of biotic assemblages into the goals set and interventions deployed.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS1997

Habitat associations and effects of urbanization on macroinvertebrates of a small, high-plains stream

We described the relations between abundance of macroinvertebrates and several habitat variables in Crow Creek within F.E. Warren Air Force Base, Laramie County, Wyoming. Water velocity and longitudinal location showed the highest numbers of significant correlations with abundance of macroinvertebrate taxa. Changes in the macroinvertebrate community with changes in longitudinal location appeared to result from increasing urbanization with downstream movement. Caenis lattipennis , Ceratopogonidae, and Dubiraphia sp. were rare in the downstream portion of the study reach that has received substantial human disturbance.

Journal of Freshwater Ecology↗

USGS2008

Parent-offspring communication in the western sandpiper

Western sandpiper (Calidris mauri) chicks are precocial and leave the nest shortly after hatch to forage independently. Chicks require thermoregulatory assistance from parents (brooding) for 5-7 days posthatch, and parents facilitate chick survival for 2-3 weeks posthatch by leading and defending chicks. Parental vocal signals are likely involved in protecting chicks from predators, preventing them from wandering away and becoming lost and leading them to good foraging locations. Using observational and experimental methods in the field, we describe and demonstrate the form and function of parent-chick communication in the western sandpiper. We document 4 distinct calls produced by parents that are apparently directed toward their chicks (brood, gather, alarm, and freeze calls). Through experimental playback of parental and non-parental vocalizations to chicks in a small arena, we demonstrated the following: 1) chicks respond to the alarm call by vocalizing relatively less often and moving away from the signal source, 2) chicks respond to the gather call by vocalizing relatively more often and moving toward the signal source, and 3) chicks respond to the freeze call by vocalizing relatively less often and crouching motionless on the substrate for extended periods of time. Chicks exhibited consistent directional movement and space use to parental and non-parental signals. Although fewer vocalizations were given in response to non-parental signals, which may indicate a weaker response to unfamiliar individuals, the relative number of chick calls given to each type of call signal was consistent between parental and non-parental signals. We also discovered 2 distinct chick vocalizations (chick-contact and chick-alarm calls) during arena playback experiments. Results indicate that sandpiper parents are able to elicit antipredatory chick behaviors and direct chick movement and vocalizations through vocal signals. Future study of parent-offspring communication should determine whether shorebird chicks exhibit parental recognition though vocalizations and the role of chick vocalizations in parental behavior. ?? The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Society for Behavioral Ecology. All rights reserved.

Behavioral Ecology↗

USGS2019

Satellite tracking of gulls and genomic characterization of fecal bacteria reveals environmentally mediated acquisition and dispersal of antimicrobial resistant Escherichia coli on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska

Gulls (Larus spp.) have frequently been reported to carry Escherichia coli exhibiting antimicrobial resistance (AMR E. coli); however, the pathways governing the acquisition and dispersal of such bacteria are not well-described. We equipped 17 landfill-foraging gulls with satellite transmitters and collected gull fecal samples longitudinally from four locations on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska to assess: 1) gull attendance and transitions between sites, 2) spatiotemporal prevalence of fecally-shed AMR E. coli, and 3) genomic relatedness of AMR E. coli isolates among sites. We also sampled Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) harvested as part of personal-use dipnet fisheries at two sites to assess potential contamination with AMR E. coli. Among our study sites, marked gulls most commonly occupied the lower Kenai River (61% of site locations) followed by the Soldotna landfill (11%), lower Kasilof River (5%), and upper Kenai River (<1%). Gulls primarily moved between the Soldotna landfill and the lower Kenai River (94% of transitions among sites), which were also the two locations with the highest prevalence of AMR E. coli. There was relatively high spatial and temporal variability in AMR E. coli prevalence in gull feces and there was no evidence of contamination on salmon harvested in personal-use fisheries. We identified E. coli sequence types and AMR genes of clinical importance, with some isolates possessing genes associated with resistance to as many as eight antibiotic classes. Our findings suggest that gulls acquire AMR E. coli at habitats with anthropogenic inputs and subsequent movements may represent pathways through which AMR is dispersed.

Alaska↗

USGS2025

Long‐term effects of low‐drop grade control structures on channel evolution in the Yazoo River Basin

Channel incision is a widespread problem, especially in river basins that have an extensive history of channel alterations. Because channel incision causes large ecological and economic consequences, the prevention of continued migration of headcuts, defined as a steep change in stream gradient over a short reach, has been the focus of many stream engineering projects. Low-drop grade control structures (GCS) are a type of structure installed to halt the upstream movement of a headcut and were widely installed in the rivers and streams of the Yazoo River Basin in northern Mississippi. The goal of this study was to evaluate the long-term effects of these structures 30+ years post installation. To assess GCS effects on channel morphology, stream cross-section surveys were used to calculate Bank Height Ratio, Width-to-Depth Ratio, and Entrenchment Ratio, while point estimates made along each transect were used to calculate the average sediment size distribution for each of 30 sites. Analyses revealed that the GCS were successful in checking channel incision moving headward in the streams: sites upstream of the GCS were less incised and had greater accumulations of fine substrates compared to sites downstream and sites on streams lacking erosion control structures. Given the widespread use of GCS, these results can inform efforts aimed at managing channel incision.

Mississippi↗

USGS2025

The effects of carnivory and herbivory on the energy balance of Arctic grizzly bears

Omnivores often face tradeoffs between selecting for spatially dispersed energy-dense vertebrate prey versus densely distributed herbivorous resources that have limited energetic value per unit intake. Arctic grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ) are large omnivores within a resource-limited ecosystem that are known to exhibit smaller body masses and occur at lower densities than grizzly bears in other regions of North America. We evaluated the energy balance of Arctic grizzly bears during a portion of the fall hyperphagic period in two ecologically differing regions on Alaska’s northern Arctic coast by monitoring mass change, food intake, activity, and energy expenditure of 12 individuals over 17–22 days. Bears in coastal areas were more carnivorous than bears in the foothills that were predominantly herbivorous and frugivorous. Carnivory was associated with greater movement, body fat, and energy expenditure and two of four carnivorous bears lost mass. Overall, the mean body fat of the bears in this study was 34% lower than other grizzly bear populations in North America in the fall. Furthermore, the bears in this study exhibited relatively small changes in body mass (x̄ = 3%, range =−2 to 11%) that were 60% lower than other grizzly bear populations which typically gain substantial mass in the fall in preparation for denning. Our results, while representing a snapshot from a small number of bears during the fall hyperphagic period, are consistent with previous studies and indicate limited availability of energy-dense food resources during this time for grizzly bears in this region of the Arctic.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

The Impacts of flow alterations to crayfishes in Southeastern Oklahoma, with an emphasis on the mena crayfish (orconectes menae)

Human activities can alter the environment to the point that it is unsuitable to the native species resulting in a loss of biodiversity. Ecologists understand the importance of biodiversity and the conservation of vulnerable species. Species that are narrowly endemic are considered to be particularly vulnerable because they often use specific habitats that are highly susceptible to human disturbance. The basic components of species conservation are 1) delineation of the spatial distribution of the species, 2) understanding how the species interacts with its environment, and 3) employing management strategies based on the ecology of the species. In this study, we investigated several crayfish species endemic to the Ouachita Mountains in Oklahoma and Arkansas. We established the spatial distributions (i.e., range) of the crayfish using Maximum Entropy species distribution modeling. We then investigated crayfish habitat use with quantitative sampling and a paired movement study. Finally, we evaluated the ability of crayfish to burrow under different environmental conditions in a controlled laboratory setting. Crayfish distribution at the landscape scale was largely driven by climate, geology and elevation. In general, the endemic crayfish in this study occurred above 300-m elevation where the geology was dominated by sandstone and shale, and rainfall totals were the highest compared to the rest of the study region. Our quantitative data indicated crayfish did not select for specific habitat types at the reach scale; however, crayfish appeared to continue to use shallow and dry habitat even as the streams dried. Movement by passive integrated transponder (PIT) tagged crayfish was highly variable but crayfish tended to burrow in response to drought rather than migrate to wet habitat. Controlled laboratory experiments revealed smaller substrate size (pebble) restricted crayfish burrowing more than larger substrates (cobble). We also found excess fine sediment restricted crayfish burrowing regardless of dominant substrate size. Our results suggest climate change and sedimentation resulting from land-use practices, combined with increased water withdrawals have the potential to alter crayfish distributions and affect persistence of some crayfish populations.

Report↗

USGS2021

Assessing the robustness of time-to-event models for estimating unmarked wildlife abundance using remote cameras

Recently developed methods, including time-to-event and space-to-event models, estimate the abundance of unmarked populations from encounter rates with camera trap arrays, addressing a gap in noninvasive wildlife monitoring. However, estimating abundance from encounter rates relies on assumptions that can be difficult to meet in the field, including random movement, population closure, and an accurate estimate of movement speed. Understanding how these models respond to violation of these assumptions will assist in making them more applicable in real-world settings. We used simulated walk models to test the effects of violating the assumptions of the time-to-event model under four scenarios: (1) incorrectly estimating movement speed, (2) violating closure, (3) individuals moving within simplified territories (i.e., movement restricted to partially overlapping circles), (4) and individuals clustering in preferred habitat. The time-to-event model was robust to closure violations, territoriality, and clustering when cameras were placed randomly. However, the model failed to estimate abundance accurately when movement speed was incorrectly estimated or cameras were placed nonrandomly with respect to habitat. We show that the time-to-event model can provide unbiased estimates of abundance when some assumptions that are commonly violated in wildlife studies are not met. Having a robust method for estimating the abundance of unmarked populations with remote cameras will allow practitioners to monitor a more diverse array of populations noninvasively. With the time-to-event model, placing cameras randomly with respect to animal movement and accurately estimating movement speed allows unbiased estimation of abundance. The model is robust to violating the other assumptions we tested.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2022

Stochastic agent-based model for predicting turbine-scale raptor movements during updraft-subsidized directional flights

Rapid expansion of wind energy development across the world has highlighted the need to better understand turbine-caused avian mortality. The risk to golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) is of particular concern due to their small population size and conservation status. Golden eagles subsidize their flight in part by soaring in orographic updrafts, which can place them in conflict with wind turbines utilizing the same low-altitude wind resource. Understanding the behavior of soaring raptors in varying atmospheric conditions can therefore be relevant to predicting and mitigating their risk of collision. We present a predictive movement model that simulates individual paths of golden eagles during directional flight (such as migration) that is subsidized by orographic updraft. We modeled eagles in a 50 km by 50 km study area in Wyoming containing three wind power plants with documented golden eagle collisions with turbines. The movement model is applicable to any region where ground elevation is known at turbine scale ( < "> < 50 m) and wind conditions are known at facility scale ( < "> < 3 km). For a given set of atmospheric conditions, the model simulates movements of thousands of orographic soaring eagles to produce a density map quantifying the relative probability of eagle presence. We validated the simulated tracks with GPS telemetry data showing four directional tracks made by golden eagles transiting through the area in 2019 and 2020. For each eagle track, validation was performed using the ratio of the model-simulated eagle presence likelihood with uniform eagle presence and the presence computed using directed random-walk movements. We found that the predictive performance of the model was significantly better (likelihood ratio > "> > 1) for low-altitude movements than high-altitude movements that can involve thermal-soaring. We employed the model to produce seasonal presence maps for migrating golden eagles. We found significant turbine-level variations in eagle presence between northerly and southerly migration routes through the study area. Overall, the proposed model offers a generalizable, probabilistic, and predictive tool to assist wind energy developers, ecologists, wildlife managers, and industry consultants in estimating the potential for conflict between soaring birds and wind turbines, thereby reducing the need for site-specific data on golden eagle movements.

Wyoming↗