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Rare-earth elements

The rare-earth elements (REEs) are 15 elements that range in atomic number from 57 (lanthanum) to 71 (lutetium); they are commonly referred to as the “lanthanides.” Yttrium (atomic number 39) is also commonly regarded as an REE because it shares chemical and physical similarities and has affinities with the lanthanides. Although REEs are not rare in terms of average crustal abundance, the concentrated deposits of REEs are limited in number. Because of their unusual physical and chemical properties, the REEs have diverse defense, energy, industrial, and military technology applications. The glass industry is the leading consumer of REE raw materials, which are used for glass polishing and as additives that provide color and special optical properties to the glass. Lanthanum-based catalysts are used in petroleum refining, and cerium-based catalysts are used in automotive catalytic converters. The use of REEs in magnets is a rapidly increasing application. Neodymium-iron-boron magnets, which are the strongest known type of magnets, are used when space and weight are restrictions. Nickel-metal hydride batteries use anodes made of a lanthanum-based alloys. China, which has led the world production of REEs for decades, accounted for more than 90 percent of global production and supply, on average, during the past decade. Citing a need to retain its limited REE resources to meet domestic requirements as well as concerns about the environmental effects of mining, China began placing restrictions on the supply of REEs in 2010 through the imposition of quotas, licenses, and taxes. As a result, the global rare-earth industry has increased its stockpiling of REEs; explored for deposits outside of China; and promoted new efforts to conserve, recycle, and substitute for REEs. New mine production began at Mount Weld in Western Australia, and numerous other exploration and development projects noted in this chapter are ongoing throughout the world. The REE-bearing minerals are diverse and often complex in composition. At least 245 individual REE-bearing minerals are recognized; they are mainly carbonates, fluorocarbonates, and hydroxylcarbonates (n = 42); oxides (n = 59); silicates (n = 85); and phosphates (n = 26). Many of the world’s significant REE deposits occur in carbonatites, which are carbonate igneous rocks. The REEs also have a strong genetic association with alkaline magmatism. The systematic geologic and chemical processes that explain these observations are not well understood. Economic or potentially economic REE deposits have been found in (a) carbonatites, (b) peralkaline igneous systems, (c) magmatic magnetite-hematite bodies, (d) iron oxide-copper-gold (IOCG) deposits, (e) xenotime-monazite accumulations in mafic gneiss, (f) ion-absorption clay deposits, and (g) monazite-xenotime-bearing placer deposits. Carbonatites have been the world’s main source for the light REEs since the 1960s. Ion-adsorption clay deposits in southern China are the world’s primary source of the heavy REEs. Monazite-bearing placer deposits were important sources of REEs before the mid-1960s and may be again in the future. In recent years, REEs have been produced from large carbonatite bodies mined at the Mountain Pass deposit in California and, in China, at the Bayan Obo deposit in Nei Mongol Autonomous Region, the Maoniuping deposit in Sichuan Province, the Daluxiang deposit in Sichuan Province, and the Weishan deposit in Anhui Province. Alkaline igneous complexes have recently been targeted for exploration because of their enrichments in the heavy REEs. Information relevant to the environmental aspects of REE mining is limited. Little is known about the aquatic toxicity of REEs. The United States lacks drinking water standards for REEs. The concentrations of REEs in environmental media are influenced by their low abundances in crustal rocks and their limited solubility in most groundwaters and surface waters. The scarcity of sulfide minerals, including pyrite, minimizes or eliminates concerns about acid-mine drainage for carbonatite-hosted deposits and alkaline-intrusion-related REE deposits. For now, insights into environmental responses of REE mine wastes must rely on predictive models.

Professional Paper

Macroinvertebrate-based assessment of biological condition at selected sites in the Eagle River watershed, Colorado, 2000-07

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado River Water Conservation District, Eagle County, Eagle River Water and Sanitation District, Upper Eagle Regional Water Authority, Colorado Department of Transportation, City of Aurora, Town of Eagle, Town of Gypsum, Town of Minturn, Town of Vail, Vail Resorts, Colorado Springs Utilities, Denver Water, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service (FS), compiled macroinvertebrate (73 sites, 124 samples) data previously collected in the Eagle River watershed from selected USGS and FS studies, 2000-07. These data were analyzed to assess the biological condition (that is, biologically ?degraded? or ?good?) at selected sites in the Eagle River watershed and determine if site class (for example, urban or undeveloped) described biological condition. An independently developed predictive model was applied to calculate a site-specific measure of taxonomic completeness for macroinvertebrate communities, where taxonomic completeness was expressed as the ratio of observed (O) taxa to those expected (E) to occur at each site. Macroinvertebrate communities were considered degraded at sites were O/E values were less than 0.80, indicating that at least 20 percent of expected taxa were not observed. Sites were classified into one of four classes (undeveloped, adjacent road or highway or both, mixed, urban) using a combination of riparian land-cover characteristics, examination of topographic maps and aerial imagery, screening for exceedances in water-quality standards, and best professional judgment. Analysis of variance was used to determine if site class accounted for variability in mean macroinvertebrate O/E values. Finally, macroinvertebrate taxa observed more or less frequently than expected at urban sites were indentified. This study represents the first standardized assessment of biological condition of selected sites distributed across the Eagle River watershed. Of the 73 sites evaluated, just over half (55 percent) were considered in good biological condition (O/E greater than 0.80). The remaining sites were either consistently biologically degraded (30 percent; O/E less than 0.80) or varied annually between good and degraded condition (15 percent; O/E is less than or greater than 0.80). Sites primarily affected by urbanization were among the most severely degraded (lowest O/E values) when compared to other site classes. Although most urban sites were among the most severely degraded (lowest O/E values), a few sites had nearly intact macroinvertebrate communities (O/E near 1.0). Similar observations were noted among sites classified as mixed. Thirteen macroinvertebrate taxa were indentified that occurred more or less frequently than expected at urban sites. Additionally, six other taxa were impartial (tolerant) to the same conditions. Combined, these 19 taxa provide an opportunity to enhance the interpretation of future studies in the Eagle River watershed, but will require better insight into the responses of these taxa to specific stressors. Understanding the sources of variability affecting biological condition along with why some sites expected to be degraded, but showed otherwise, will have clear implications for mitigation efforts. Integrating results of this study with field and laboratory investigations will greatly enhance the ability to identify causal factors affecting biological condition at degraded sites, the logical next step. Information generated from such integrative studies will be imperative for well targeted mitigation efforts in the Eagle River watershed.

Scientific Investigations Report

The drought of 1998-2002 in North Carolina — Precipitation and hydrologic conditions

Drought conditions prevailed across much of North Carolina during 1998-2002, resulting in widespread record-low streamflow and ground-water levels in many areas. During this 4-year period, the drought was continuous in areas of western North Carolina, although eastern areas of the State had some periods of relief from tropical storms in 1998 and 1999. The occurrence of dry winters in 2001 and 2002 along with a dry spring in 2002, exacerbated drought conditions across the State and resulted in substantial declines in streamflow and ground-water levels during the summer of 2002. The drought caused widespread hardship and economic losses across North Carolina. During the latter months of 2002, more than 200 municipalities that included most major cities operated under some form of voluntary, mandatory, or emergency water conservation. Reservoirs across North Carolina were at record or near record-low levels, including some of the largest ones used for multiple purposes (flood control, low-flow augmentation, and(or) recreation), and required continuous and careful operation to balance the upstream and downstream needs of users. Precipitation deficits during the 1998-2002 drought for some locations in North Carolina were among the largest documented since the beginning of systematic collection of weather data. The largest deficits occurred primarily in the western Piedmont and were as much as 60 to 70 inches in some locations during the 4-year period. Cumulative monthly precipitation departures for the period May 1998 through September 2002 at 13 selected precipitation sites across the State ranged from 5.3 inches below normal in Greenville (eastern North Carolina) to 66.7 inches below normal in Hickory (western North Carolina). During the 12-month period October 2002 through September 2003, precipitation departures at 7 of the 13 sites were more than 20 inches above normal, primarily in the western Piedmont. Precipitation data for the period of record were examined for 8 of the 13 sites to compare precipitation deficits during the 1998-2002 drought with those that occurred during selected historical droughts. At three of the eight sites (Hickory, Charlotte, and Mocksville), the average monthly deficit for the 1998-2002 drought exceeded the values computed for the other drought periods. Precipitation records for three other sites (Greensboro, Raleigh, and Fayetteville) were adjusted to remove monthly rainfall values associated with several large tropical storms in 1999. The average monthly deficits for the 1998-2002 drought based on adjusted records for these three sites were then determined to be the highest among the drought periods identified during the available periods of precipitation record. Daily mean discharges before and after the drought were compiled for 211 continuous-record gaging stations operated in North Carolina in 2002. Of these 211, 150 stations had periods of record that exceeded 10 years. Among these 150 sites, records of lowest daily mean discharge were set at 65 sites during the 4-year drought (55 sites during the 2002 water year alone). A smaller group of 68 sites having 30 years of uninterrupted record through the 2002 water year and not known to be significantly affected by regulation and(or) diversions was selected for further analyses to quantify the 'daily' percentile and recurrence intervals of 7-day average discharges. Comparisons of minimum 7-day average discharges at six selected gaging stations with long-term records (two from each physiographic province in the State) provided insight into how the 1998-2002 drought compares with previous droughts. At three of the six sites, all located in the Blue Ridge and Piedmont Provinces, the minimum 7-day average discharges during the 1998-2002 drought became the minimum flows of record. One of these three sites, the French Broad River at Asheville, has the longest period of discharge records in North Carolina. These comparisons confirmed that th

North Carolina

Assessing manure management strategies through small-plot research and whole-farm modeling

Plot-scale experimentation can provide valuable insight into the effects of manure management practices on phosphorus (P) runoff, but whole-farm evaluation is needed for complete assessment of potential trade offs. Artificially-applied rainfall experimentation on small field plots and event-based and long-term simulation modeling were used to compare P loss in runoff related to two dairy manure application methods (surface application with and without incorporation by tillage) on contrasting Pennsylvania soils previously under no-till management. Results of single-event rainfall experiments indicated that average dissolved reactive P losses in runoff from manured plots decreased by up to 90% with manure incorporation while total P losses did not change significantly. Longer-term whole farm simulation modeling indicated that average dissolved reactive P losses would decrease by 8% with manure incorporation while total P losses would increase by 77% due to greater erosion from fields previously under no-till. Differences in the two methods of inference point to the need for caution in extrapolating research findings. Single-event rainfall experiments conducted shortly after manure application simulate incidental transfers of dissolved P in manure to runoff, resulting in greater losses of dissolved reactive P. However, the transfer of dissolved P in applied manure diminishes with time. Over the annual time frame simulated by whole farm modeling, erosion processes become more important to runoff P losses. Results of this study highlight the need to consider the potential for increased erosion and total P losses caused by soil disturbance during incorporation. This study emphasizes the ability of modeling to estimate management practice effectiveness at the larger scales when experimental data is not available.

Journal of Soil and Water Conservation

Hydrogeologic framework, geochemistry, groundwater-flow system, and aquifer hydraulic properties used in the development of a conceptual model of the Ogallala, Edwards-Trinity (High Plains), and Dockum aquifers in and near Gaines, Terry, and Yoakum Counties, Texas

In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Llano Estacado Underground Water Conservation District, Sandy Land Underground Water Conservation District, and South Plains Underground Water Conservation District (hereinafter referred to collectively as the “UWCDs”), began a multiphase study in and near Gaines, Terry, and Yoakum Counties, Texas, to develop a regional conceptual model of the hydrogeologic framework, geochemistry, groundwater-flow system, and hydraulic properties, primarily for the High Plains and Edwards-Trinity aquifer system and to a lesser degree for the Dockum aquifer. The High Plains aquifer system (hereinafter referred to as the “Ogallala aquifer”), contained within the Ogallala Formation in Texas, is the shallowest aquifer in the study area and is the primary source of water for agriculture and municipal supply in the areas managed by the UWCDs. Groundwater withdrawals from deeper aquifers (primarily the Edwards-Trinity [High Plains] aquifer system that is hereinafter referred to as the “Edwards-Trinity [High Plains] aquifer”) augmented by lesser amounts from the Dockum aquifer provide additional water sources in the study area. The Edwards-Trinity (High Plains) aquifer is contained within the Trinity and Fredericksburg Groups. The Dockum aquifer, a relatively minor source of water in the study area, is contained in the Dockum Group, which was evaluated as a single unit. The potential for continual declines of the groundwater in the Ogallala aquifer in the study area and the potential changes in water quality resulting from dewatering and increased vertical groundwater movement between adjacent water-bearing units have raised concerns about the amount and quality of available groundwater. The developed conceptual model helped in the understanding of the quantity and quality of the groundwater within the Ogallala, the Edwards-Trinity (High Plains), and to a lesser extent, the Dockum aquifers within the study area. The hydrogeologic framework was used to assess the vertical and lateral extents of hydrogeologic units, bed orientations, unit thicknesses, and location and orientation of paleochannels. In general, the Trinity and Fredericksburg Groups and Ogallala Formation exhibit a slight regional dip (dip angle of about 0.14 degrees) to the southeast with dip directions becoming more to the south with each successively overlying unit (105, 110, and 125 degrees for the bases of the Trinity and Fredericksburg Groups and Ogallala Formation, respectively). In general, the Trinity and Fredericksburg Groups thin to the south and are not present in the southern part of Gaines County, whereas the Ogallala Formation becomes thinner from west to east. The combined thickness of the Trinity and Fredericksburg Groups and Ogallala Formation is generally greatest in the north-central part of the study area and thinnest in the southeastern part of the study area. Paleochannel orientation varied over geologic time as formations were deposited and eroded. Water-quality samples were collected from 51 wells throughout the study area to better understand general water quality and to provide insight into groundwater-flow paths and recharge areas. Groundwater samples were spatially grouped on the basis of similarities found in the physicochemical properties, major ions, trace elements, nutrients, organic compounds, and selected stable isotopes and age tracers. Three groundwater groups were identified in the study area. The first groundwater group (Group 1), represented mostly by groundwater from the Ogallala and Edwards-Trinity (High Plains) aquifers in the northern half of the study area, is considered to be recent recharge, affected by land-use activities, as explained by the younger age, higher concentrations of nitrate plus nitrite, and more frequent detections of organic compounds. Groundwater wells in the second groundwater group (Group 2) are typically in the southwestern and northwestern parts of the study area, and the groundwater in this group is considered to be groundwater recharged during the Pleistocene period, as explained by the relatively old age of the groundwater, high strontium stable isotope ratios, and hydrogen and oxygen stable isotope ratios. The last groundwater group (Group 3) is likely a mixture of groundwater from the first or second groups (or both) with a third, highly mineralized groundwater as explained by having the highest dissolved-solids concentrations in the study area and having some similarities to geochemical characteristics of samples from the first and second groups. A groundwater-flow system analysis was done to understand the flow of groundwater throughout the aquifer system. Groundwater-level altitudes for the Ogallala, Edwards-Trinity (High Plains), and Dockum aquifers are generally higher in the northwestern part of the study area and lower in the southeastern part of the study area. Groundwater generally flows in a northwest to southeast direction across the study area in each of the aquifers. The groundwater-flow paths closely resemble the mapped paleochannels, indicating that within the study area, the groundwater flows preferentially along the paleochannels, especially within the Ogallala aquifer where dewatering of the aquifer results in a greater effect of the base structure on the flow of groundwater. The Ogallala aquifer is unsaturated in localized areas in the study area; unsaturated areas are generally near the southern extent of the Edwards-Trinity (High Plains) aquifer, with the largest unsaturated area west of Seminole, Tex. The saturated thickness of the Ogallala aquifer is thickest (more than 125 feet) southeast of Seminole and west of Brownfield, Tex., near the border between Terry and Yoakum Counties. The saturated thickness of the combined Ogallala and Edwards-Trinity (High Plains) aquifers ranges from less than 10 feet along the far southern edge of the study area to more than 350 feet north and east of Brownfield, Tex., and along the border between Terry and Yoakum Counties. The aquifer hydraulic properties, including hydraulic conductivity and specific yield, were estimated to better understand the ability of groundwater to move through the aquifer system and quantify the volume of available water in storage. The hydraulic-conductivity values varied greatly within the study area (ranging from about 0.03 to about 350 feet per day), and often large variations were found in the same area. Terry County contained the highest and lowest hydraulic conductivity values for the Ogallala aquifer, whereas Yoakum County contained the highest and lowest hydraulic conductivity values for the Edwards-Trinity (High Plains) aquifer. The highest hydraulic-conductivity values for the Dockum aquifer were in Gaines County, whereas the lowest hydraulic-conductivity values were in Terry County. The estimated specific yield values within the study area range from 0.01 to 0.36. Higher specific yield values generally occurred in the western part of the study area except in the Ogallala aquifer where higher specific yield values were in the east. The Ogallala aquifer had the lowest specific yield range and the least specific yield variability among the three aquifers, whereas the Dockum aquifer had the highest specific yield range and the greatest specific yield variability. Using the estimated saturated thickness and estimated specific yield grids, the water volumes of the Ogallala and Edwards-Trinity (High Plains) aquifers and the combined Ogallala and Edwards-Trinity (High Plains) aquifers were estimated. The available water in the Edwards-Trinity (High Plains) aquifer (16.6 million acre-feet) is almost double the available water in the Ogallala aquifer (8.8 million acre-feet). Although the Edwards-Trinity (High Plains) aquifer contains more available groundwater, pumping is more difficult because of the relatively low hydraulic conductivity and specific yield values compared to the Ogallala aquifer. Overall, the available water within the combined Ogallala and Edwards-Trinity (High Plains) aquifers is about 6.6, 10.2, and 8.6 million acre-feet for Gaines, Terry, and Yoakum Counties, respectively.

Texas

Spatial and temporal variation in marine birds in the north Gulf of Alaska: The value of marine bird monitoring within Gulf Watch Alaska

Birds offer useful insights into marine ecosystems. Marine birds are responsive to spatial and temporal variation in the environment, that often originates with fluctuations in oceanographic and climatic drivers and permeates up through food webs to conspicuous top predators such as seabirds (Coyle and Pinchuk 2005, Speckman et al. 2005, Gonzales-Solis et al. 2009, Cushing et al., this report). In that way, marine birds are excellent assimilators, samplers, and indicators of the status of marine environments (Montevecchi 1993, Piatt et al. 2007b, Zador et al. 2013). Marine bird responses to dynamic marine ecosystems can be detected in a variety of metrics, including abundance, distribution, and productivity. For example, in the northern Gulf of Alaska (GOA), decadal-scale variation in oceanographic conditions has been associated with dramatic shifts in prey composition and abundance (Anderson and Piatt 1999). In turn, these shifts were more closely correlated with changes in abundance of fish-eating birds of Prince William Sound (PWS), such as pigeon guillemots (Golet et al. 2002) and marbled and Kittlitz’s murrelets (Kuletz et al. 2011a, 2011b), than in the abundance of species that primarily consume plankton or benthic prey (Agler et al. 1999, Cushing et al., this report). Birds also are responsive to anthropogenic influences in marine environments, including commercial fishing, contamination, introduction of non-native species, coastal development, offshore resource extraction, and vessel traffic. A major anthropogenic perturbation in the northern GOA was the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill, in which marine birds suffered high immediate mortality (Piatt and Ford 1996). Additionally, several species showed long-term evidence of declines in the oiled areas of PWS (Lance et al. 2001), as well as impacts to reproductive success years later (Golet et al. 2002). However, the degree of direct impact and vulnerability to chronic injury, which was related to exposure to lingering oil, varied widely among species (see Esler et al., this report). Research and monitoring directed at documenting the timelines and mechanisms of wildlife recovery following the Exxon Valdez oil spill led to an unprecedented understanding of oil spill effects on marine birds, as well as previously unknown information about marine bird ecology in the northern GOA. Quantifying effects of anthropogenic influences requires an understanding of variation in marine bird abundance, distribution, and productivity, in relation to naturally occurring dynamics in marine environments continued marine bird work as part of Gulf Watch Alaska will facilitate this. In addition to their value as indicators of marine conditions and anthropogenic influences, marine birds are protected under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act and are managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). Marine birds have high societal value from a wide variety of interests (e.g., tourism, bird watching, hunting, mythology), and are an important source of subsistence foods in Alaska (Naves and Braem 2014). Because of the conservation interest in marine birds, as well as their value for indicating the status of marine ecosystems, monitoring of marine birds is an important component of many ocean monitoring programs, including Gulf Watch Alaska.

Alaska

Effects of landcover on mesocarnivore density and detection rate along an urban to rural gradient

Human development has major implications for wildlife populations. Urban-exploiter species can benefit from human subsidized resources, whereas urban-avoider species can vanish from wildlife communities in highly developed areas. Therefore, understanding how the density of different species varies in response to landcover changes associated with human development can provide important insight into how wildlife communities are likely to change and provide a starting point for predicting the consequences of those changes. Here, we estimated the population density of five common mesocarnivore species (coyote ( Canis latrans ), bobcat ( Lynx rufus ), red fox ( Vulpes vulpes ), raccoon ( Procyon lotor ), and Virginia opossum ( Didelphis virginiana) ) at 12 study sites along an urban to rural gradient in the greater Fayetteville Area, Northwest Arkansas, USA between November 2021, and March 2022. At each study site, we applied the Random Encounter Model (REM) to data from camera traps to calculate the density of five focal species. Coyote density ranged from 0.5 to 0.93 individuals/km 2 . Raccoon density ranged from 0.19 to 20.25 individuals/km 2 . Bobcat density ranged from 0 to 1.06 individuals/km 2 . Opossum density ranged from 0 to 3.43 individuals/km 2 . Red fox density ranged from 0 to 0.10 individuals/km 2 . Coyote and raccoon density showed a positive relationship with anthropogenic noise. Opossum density increased with HUD. Red Fox and bobcat density showed a negative relationship with forest area and a positive relationship with distance to water respectively, however confidence intervals for both species overlapped zero. The density estimates we report based on camera trap data of unmarked animals were consistent with reports from the literature for these same species derived from traditional methods, providing additional support to the REM as a viable, non-invasive method to calculate density of unmarked species. Our second analysis consisted of taking camera level density estimates and treating them as detection rates corrected for camera viewshed and animal movement. Coyote and raccoon detection rate showed a positive relationship with anthropogenic noise. Red Fox detection rate was positively related to developed open space, and negatively related to distance to water. Similarly to red fox, opossums detection rate was higher in areas with more developed open space. We found no evidence that bobcat density or detection rate varied with any of the landcover or anthropogenic variables we measured.

Arkansas

Using environmental DNA (eDNA) to assess the presence of cavefish and cave crayfish populations in caves of the Ozark Highlands

Many cavefishes and cave crayfishes are considered of conservation concern; however, sampling these species is inherently difficult given their occupied environments. The goal of our project was to verify the presence of select karst organisms while developing the foundation for sampling approaches that might be useful to conservation and management agencies. Our project objectives were to develop assays to amplify deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) from several species of Ozark cavefishes and cave crayfishes and complete an initial surveillance of locations across the Ozark Highlands using environmental DNA (eDNA). Using DNA either provided by agency cooperators or that we extracted from tissue samples, we PCR amplified and then sequenced the Cytochrome Oxidase 1 (CO1) gene for cave crayfishes and the NADH Dehydrogenase Subunit 2 (ND2) gene for cavefishes. We developed species-specific primers and probes for five cave crayfishes and two cavefishes. From February 2017 to May 2017, we sampled 1–5 sampling units from 42 caves, wells, and springs (i.e., sites) using eDNA and traditional visual surveys. We measured physicochemical parameters at each sampling unit to estimate detection probability associated with both techniques. We also calculated two occupancy covariates for each site using geospatial data. We successfully amplified Troglichthys rosae DNA from the environment and detected DNA representing this species at 24 of 40 sites. At 16 of the sites where we detected T. rosae DNA, we did not visually observe the species. Although our assay for Typlichthys eigenmanni successfully amplified the target DNA from the environment, it also resulted in false absences where the species was visually confirmed. Using eDNA to detect cave crayfishes was much more difficult. The assay for Cambarus subterraneus did not work for eDNA samples and we were unable to pick up DNA from the environment, even at locations where it was visually confirmed. Alternatively, the eDNA surveys worked well for C. tartarus and we were able to amplify DNA at every site where it was visually observed. Our assay for C. aculabrum was based on a single sample obtained from GenBank, and did not amplify eDNA from field samples. Lastly, our eDNA results from samples in the known range of Orconectes stygocaneyi suggested the species may be found at an additional cave. Detection using eDNA based on our O. stygocaneyi assay was likely low because it was designed from a pseudogene; however, positive eDNA samples were sequenced to confirm species-specific DNA. Detection probability of both cavefishes and cave crayfishes varied by survey technique and was influenced by water volume, water clarity, water velocity, and substrate. Detection of cavefishes and cave crayfishes via visual surveys decreased when water volume increased, whereas detection using eDNA increased with greater water volume. Detection between taxa using either sample method was highest in habitats classified by fine substrates, except for eDNA detection of crayfishes which was greatest in coarse substrates. Detection of cavefishes increased with water clarity, but detection of cave crayfishes increased with turbidity. Detection probability of both cavefishes and crayfishes using eDNA increased slightly with water velocity, but decreased with visual surveys as water velocity increased. Occupancy by both taxa was positively related to particular geologic series. Crayfish occupancy was negatively related to fine-scale anthropogenic disturbance (i.e., 500-m buffer around the site), whereas crayfish showed no relationship with disturbance. Our results suggest possible range extensions, provide insights to factors driving detection using both sample techniques, and suggest areas where recharge zones may be shared among caves. Future efforts focused on a comprehensive evaluation of genetic diversity among cave crayfishes to improve assay design could improve detection and the applicability of eDNA as a supplemental and non-invasive sampling approach.

Cooperator Science Series

Suspended-sediment concentrations, loads, total suspended solids, turbidity, and particle-size fractions for selected rivers in Minnesota, 2007 through 2011

Sediment-laden rivers and streams pose substantial environmental and economic challenges. Excessive sediment transport in rivers causes problems for flood control, soil conservation, irrigation, aquatic health, and navigation, and transports harmful contaminants like organic chemicals and eutrophication-causing nutrients. In Minnesota, more than 5,800 miles of streams are identified as impaired by the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) due to elevated levels of suspended sediment. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the MPCA, established a sediment monitoring network in 2007 and began systematic sampling of suspended-sediment concentrations (SSC), total suspended solids (TSS), and turbidity in rivers across Minnesota to improve the understanding of fluvial sediment transport relations. Suspended-sediment samples collected from 14 sites from 2007 through 2011 indicated that the Zumbro River at Kellogg in the driftless region of southeast Minnesota had the highest mean SSC of 226 milligrams per liter (mg/L) followed by the Minnesota River at Mankato with a mean SSC of 193 mg/L. During the 2011 spring runoff, the single highest SSC of 1,250 mg/L was measured at the Zumbro River. The lowest mean SSC of 21 mg/L was measured at Rice Creek in the northern Minneapolis- St. Paul metropolitan area. Total suspended solids (TSS) have been used as a measure of fluvial sediment by the MPCA since the early 1970s; however, TSS concentrations have been determined to underrepresent the amount of suspended sediment. Because of this, the MPCA was interested in quantifying the differences between SSC and TSS in different parts of the State. Comparisons between concurrently sampled SSC and TSS indicated significant differences at every site, with SSC on average two times larger than TSS concentrations. The largest percent difference between SSC and TSS was measured at the South Branch Buffalo River at Sabin, and the smallest difference was observed at the Des Moines River at Jackson. Regression analysis indicated that 7 out of 14 sites had poor or no relation between SSC and streamflow. Only two sites, the Knife River and the Wild Rice River at Twin Valley, had strong correlations between SSC and streamflow, with coefficient of determination (R 2 ) values of 0.82 and 0.80, respectively. In contrast, turbidity had moderate to strong relations with SSC at 10 of 14 sites and was superior to streamflow for estimating SSC at all sites. These results indicate that turbidity may be beneficial as a surrogate for SSC in many of Minnesota’s rivers. Suspended-sediment loads and annual basin yields indicated that the Minnesota River had the largest average annual sediment load of 1.8 million tons per year and the largest mean annual sediment basin yield of 120 tons of sediment per year per square mile. Annual TSS loads were considerably lower than suspended-sediment loads. Overall, the largest suspended-sediment and TSS loads were transported during spring snowmelt runoff, although loads during the fall and summer seasons occasionally exceeded spring runoff at some sites. This study provided data from which to characterize suspended sediment across Minnesota’s diverse geographical settings. The data analysis improves understanding of sediment transport relations, provides information for improving sediment budgets, and documents baseline data to aid in understanding the effects of future land use/land cover on water quality. Additionally, the data provides insight from which to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of best management practices at the watershed scale.

Minnesota

Historical changes in annual peak flows in Maine and implications for flood-frequency analyses

Flood-frequency analyses use statistical methods to compute peak streamflows for selected recurrence intervals— the average number of years between peak flows that are equal to or greater than a specified peak flow. Analyses are based on annual peak flows at a stream. It has long been assumed that the annual peak streamflows used in these computations were stationary (non-changing) over very long periods of time, except in river basins subject to direct effects of human activities, such as urbanization and regulation. Because of the potential effects of global warming on peak flows, the assumption of peak-flow stationarity has recently been questioned. Maine has many streamgages with 50 to 105 years of recorded annual peak streamflows. In this study, this long-term record has been tested for historical flood-frequency stationarity, to provide some insight into future flood frequency. Changes over time in annual instantaneous peak streamflows at 28 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages with long-term data (50 or more years) and relatively complete records were investigated by examining linear trends for each streamgage’s period of record. None of the 28 streamgages had more than 5 years of missing data. Eight streamgages have substantial streamflow regulation. Because previous studies have suggested that changes over time may have occurred as a step change around 1970, step changes between each streamgage’s older record (start year to 1970) and newer record (1971 to 2006) also were computed. The median change over time for all 28 streamgages is an increase of 15.9 percent based on a linear change and an increase of 12.4 percent based on a step change. The median change for the 20 unregulated streamgages is slightly higher than for all 28 streamgages; it is 18.4 percent based on a linear change and 15.0 percent based on a step change. Peak flows with 100- and 5-year recurrence intervals were computed for the 28 streamgages using the full annual peak-flow record and multiple sub-periods of that record using the guidelines (Bulletin 17B) of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data. Magnitudes of 100- and 5-year peak flows computed from sub-periods then were compared to those computed from the full period. Sub-periods of 30 years with starting years staggered by 10 years were evaluated (1907–36, 1917–46, 1927–56, 1937–66, 1947–76, 1957–86, 1967–96, and 1977–2006). Two other sub-periods were evaluated using older data (start-of-record to 1970) and newer data (1971 to 2006). The 5-year peak flow is used to represent small and relatively frequent flood flows in Maine, whereas the 100-year peak flow is used to represent large flood flows. The 1967–96 sub-period generated the highest 100- and 5-year peak flows overall when compared to peak flows based on the full period of record; the median difference for all 28 streamgages is 8 percent for 100- and 5-year peak flows. The 1977–2006 and 1971–2006 sub-periods also generated 100- and 5-year peak flows higher than peak flows based on the full period of record, but not as high as the peak flows based on the 1967–96 sub-period. The 1937–66 sub-period generated the lowest 100- and 5-year peak flows overall. The median difference from full-period peak flows is -11 percent for 100-year peak flows and -8 percent for 5-year peak flows. Overall, differences between peak flows based on the sub-periods and those based on the full periods, generated using the 20 unregulated streamgages, are similar to differences using all 28 streamgages. Increases in the 5- and 100-year peak flows based on recent years of record are, in general, modest when compared to peak flows based on complete periods of record. The highest peak flows are based on the 1967–96 sub-period rather than the most recent sub-period (1977-2006). Peak flows for selected recurrence intervals are sensitive to very high peak flows that may occur once in a century or even less frequently. It is difficult, therefore, to determine which approach will produce the most reliable future estimates of peak flows for selected recurrence intervals, using only recent years of record or the traditional method using the entire historical period. One possible conservative approach to computing peak flows of selected recurrence intervals would be to compute peak flows using recent annual peak flows and the entire period of record, then choose the higher computed value. Whether recent or entire periods of record are used to compute peak flows of selected recurrence intervals, the results of this study highlight the importance of using recent data in the computation of the peak flows. The use of older records alone could result in underestimation of peak flows, particularly peak flows with short recurrence intervals, such as the 5-year peak flows.

Maine

Coffee plantations, hurricanes and avian resiliency: Insights from occupancy, and local colonization and extinction rates in Puerto Rico

Insights on impacts and resiliency of avian species with respect to hurricanes in the Caribbean have largely focused on responses measured in protected habitats. We assessed avian responses in non-protected habitat, specifically shade-restored coffee plantations, because their structural complexity retains many attributes of secondary forests, and may contribute to landscape scale species resiliency. We tallied species richness, and estimated occupancy probability of 12 resident avian species, after adjusting for imperfect detection, to assess the impact of hurricane Maria (20 September 2017) in the context of two stages of shade-restored coffee plantations. For 5 of those species, we also estimated local colonization and extinction probabilities to assess their prospect of rebounding (resiliency). We used survey data collected March-June 2015-2017 (pre-hurricane) and 2018 (post-hurricane) in 58 coffee farms and satellite imagery to assess vegetation structure. Restored farms were grouped into two categories based on time-since-restoration: newly-restored and fully-restored. We predicted that mean percent forest cover in fully-restored farms (~30-40%) would revert to levels in newly-restored farms (<15%), with concomitant changes in occupancy by avian species. As predicted, mean percent forest cover (16.17 4.27%) in fully-restored farms post-hurricane reverted to pre-hurricane levels in newly-restored farms (15.00 5.61%). The loss represented 30-38% relative to the pre-hurricane cover levels. Detections of focal species dropped an average of 41% post-hurricane, with associated reductions in occupancy for 9/11 species. Occupancy of the Puerto Rican Bullfinch and Puerto Rican Spindalis reverted to levels detected in newly-restored plantations prior to the hurricane as predicted. Prospects of rebounding were more likely for species with invariant or increases in colonization probability (e.g., Yellow-faced Grassquit, Northern Mockingbird, Puerto Rican Spindalis). Rebounding for frugivores like the Puerto Rican Bullfinch would be protracted given that colonization rates dropped from 0.56 0.12 (pre-hurricane) to 0.04 0.2 (post-hurricane), regardless of restoration stage. Our work showed that the avian community associated with restored coffee farms exhibited as high degree of ecological resistance as the similarity in species composition before and after the hurricane was 81%, and all 12 focal species continued to occupy farms under both restoration stages. The prospect of the focal species to rebound (resiliency) was specific-specific, and in some cases, mediated by their affinity to a particular farm restoration stage. The strength of hurricanes is projected to intensify with global warming. Pockets of undamaged or partially damaged shade-grown or fully-restored coffee plantations may contribute to species resiliency by increasing landscape level habitat redundancy, and facilitate habitat shifts to secure food resources or harbor source populations to colonize recovering, hurricane-damaged habitat tracts.

Greater Antilles

Colocating artificial intelligence data centers with energy infrastructure on Federal public lands—A science synthesis and spatial analysis to inform decision making

Executive Summary Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly transforming industries and economies, creating an urgent need to strategically plan for the energy and infrastructure required to support increasing AI use. U.S. Federal agencies and bureaus have been directed to explore ways to accelerate permitting, development, and deployment of energy resources and AI technologies, including encouraging the colocation of energy infrastructure and data centers. To inform these initiatives, this report synthesizes relevant scientific information and presents a spatial analysis of existing energy infrastructure and data centers on or near U.S. Federal public lands managed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The purpose of this science synthesis and spatial analysis is to provide the BLM with foundational information for considering potential colocation of data centers with energy infrastructure on Federal public lands to support evidence-based decisions. Additionally, this report provides insight into current (2025) and potential future energy demands by providing projections of a range of potential future environmental conditions relevant to maintaining industry-recommended cooling temperature standards necessary for efficient data center operations. As a part of this effort, a rapid response literature review was conducted of the best available science on the topic of data center development and energy infrastructure in July–August 2025, supplemented by additional resources recommended by U.S. Federal agency and bureau subject matter experts (hereafter experts; including the U.S. Department of Energy National Laboratory of the Rockies) and peer reviewers. To better understand current conditions relevant to AI data center development, a spatial analysis was conducted across Alaska and 11 States in the Western United States, Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming, all of which contain extensive BLM-managed surface lands (hereafter referred to as “BLM lands”) that could be considered for the colocation of energy infrastructure and AI data centers. This effort identified BLM lands within 10 miles of existing transmission lines, consistent with methods used in previous BLM programmatic environmental impact statements. This report describes the types of data centers operating within the United States, which vary in ownership, size, technology, and proximity to end users. This report then outlines the primary considerations of data center development, including reliable energy supply, natural resources (such as water availability to support cooling requirements), and relevant policy and regulatory considerations. Energy supply considerations are pivotal for data center operation. Between 2014 and 2018, data centers in the United States accounted for nearly 2 percent of the Nation’s total electricity consumption, and data center energy consumption is projected to increase from 2 to 6.7–12 percent of total U.S. electricity use by 2028. These energy requirements necessitate careful consideration of energy supply when considering potentially suitable locations for data center development. Experts anticipate that an increase in renewable energy generation will likely support most potential future power demand needs, including for data centers, followed by increases in natural gas, nuclear, and geothermal energy production. Additional capacity in the form of battery storage will likely not generate electricity, but may improve the reliability and flexibility of supply, helping to ensure that growing data center loads can be met. However, the U.S. Department of Energy estimates that the United States will need, on average, 57 percent more energy transmission infrastructure by 2035 to account for the growing power demand introduced by development such as data centers. Cooling server equipment in data centers requires large amounts of electricity and water, and this demand can be exacerbated by hot and humid conditions. Energy efficient water-based cooling technologies may reduce electricity consumption onsite but require more water consumption. This additional water demand has the potential to increase water stress and competition with other users. As such, developing data centers will likely need a thorough assessment of current and potential future water availability, as well as consideration of how water demand may change across other sectors. Data center development involves policy and regulatory considerations, as projects must undergo environmental review and authorization processes that can take 18–24 months. Coordinating these environmental reviews and authorizations with other energy development projects, such as building new transmission lines, may cause additional delays. Recent efforts by the U.S. Department of Energy and U.S. Department of the Interior aim to expedite environmental reviews and authorizations and improve coordination across agencies. The spatial analysis identified 771 existing AI data centers and more than 3,300 power plants. The spatial analysis found that 6 percent of AI data centers and 22 percent of power plants in the Western United States were on or within 1 mile of BLM lands, and California had the largest number of facilities. Most existing AI data centers were near high-voltage transmission lines and close to power plants, supporting efficient energy delivery. More than 90,000,000 acres of BLM lands were within 10 miles of existing high-voltage transmission lines, representing 38 percent of BLM lands in the study area. Available transmission infrastructure and the overlap with BLM lands varied by State, and Alaska had limited overlap compared to the rest of the Western United States. To operate most efficiently, data center temperatures must be at or below 80.6 degrees Fahrenheit. This analysis of future temperature and precipitation projections indicated increasing cooling demands for data centers, particularly in Arizona, California, and Nevada, where rising temperatures are expected to increase energy and operational costs while potentially stressing current regional electrical grid infrastructure. This report highlights relevant energy supply, natural resources, and regulatory considerations for data center development on BLM lands. This report does not provide a comprehensive ecological, regulatory, land suitability, or permitting analysis. The factors described here are contextual considerations only and are not intended to identify, rank, quantify, or recommend optimal areas for data center colocation. This spatial analysis focused solely on energy considerations relevant to data centers and did not consider water availability, critical habitats, BLM National Conservation Lands, areas of cultural or historical significance, and other sensitive resources. These topics are recognized as critical but were not within the scope of this science synthesis and spatial analysis.

Scientific Investigations Report

Structured decision-making workshop: Chronic wasting disease management in free-ranging cervids in Massachusetts

This document describes the results of a 2.5-day rapid decision prototype workshop that evaluated management activities for chronic wasting disease (CWD) in Massachusetts (MA) that were either proactive (i.e., actions taken prior to CWD arrival/detection) or reactive (i.e., actions taken after CWD arrival/detection). The workshop was led by members of the Wildlife Section of the MA Division of Fisheries and Wildlife (hereafter referred to as MassWildlife) and included a group of agency communications specialists and district managers. U. S. Geological Survey staff and a volunteer acted as decision facilitators and led the analysis of the decision. Chronic wasting disease is an always fatal neurological disease that has spread across much of North America and threatens the health of deer populations in locations where it occurs (reviewed by Escobar et al. 2020). CWD can spread into new areas via two general mechanisms: (1) natural spread (e.g., dispersal of CWD-infected male white-tailed deer [Odocoileus virginianus]), and (2) anthropogenic spread (e.g., CWD spread facilitated by human intervention; Leiss et al. 2017, Escobar et al. 2020). Once CWD arrives in a state, natural resources agencies spend eight times more on CWD than agencies with no known cases; to cover these new CWD-related management activities, the natural resources agencies are typically forced to reallocate money from existing conservation priorities (Chiavacci, 2022). As of May 2024, there were 34 U.S. states and five Canadian provinces that had detected CWD positive free-ranging and/or captive animals in the family Cervidae (collectively referred to as ‘cervid’ hereafter), and the number of new states/provinces that are detecting CWD for the first time continues to grow (U. S. Geological Survey, May 2024). As of February 2024, the closest CWD positive state to MA with CWD detected in free-ranging white-tailed deer is Pennsylvania. To date, there have been no detections of CWD in MA, but testing has been limited in MA since 2012. The growing number of CWD positive states suggests that there may be increasing risk of CWD entering and establishing in MA as the number of CWD cases increases across North America. According to a 2023 survey of hunters in MA conducted by MassWildlife, 68% of hunters were concerned about CWD entering MA, and 88% of respondents said that it was at least moderately important to keep CWD out of MA; these survey results indicate that most hunters may support CWD risk reduction actions (Martin Feehan, Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife, oral communication, 12 Feb 2024). In addition, 23.1% of responding deer hunters in MA have hunted for cervids in CWD-positive states/provinces in the last five years (not including states/provinces that have been able to successfully eradicate CWD following a positive detection). Participants of the survey were also asked, “how many deer have you harvested that tested positive for CWD?”. A total of three respondents said that they had one deer test positive for CWD, which, when extended to the whole population of MA deer hunters, results in an estimated 32 CWD positive deer harvested in CWD-positive states and imported into MA in the last five years. When asked about how they transport harvested deer from out of state into MA, the three participants indicated either “already processed & packaged” or “not applicable.” Note, that in MA, it is a violation of regulation to import whole carcasses or high-risk parts (e.g., head, brain, spinal tissues, bones) of any member of the Cervidae family (wild or captive) from a state/province that has detected CWD; it is legal to bring in deboned meat, cleaned skull caps, hides without the head, or a fixed taxidermy mount (Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife, 2024a). To date, testing for CWD has been limited in MA since 2012. However, the data collected from the 2023 MA hunter survey suggests that there is a real risk of CWD being imported by a MA resident who has hunted in a CWD positive state. Therefore, given the higher costs of CWD management post arrival, the potential natural spread of CWD from nearby states, and the risk of CWD introduction via humanmediated cervid movement, MassWildlife is motivated to take actions that minimize the risk of CWD introduction and spread in MA with the ultimate goal of managing thriving wildlife populations and maximizing hunter and general public satisfaction, which are both parts of the MassWildlife mission. A 2.5-day rapid prototyping structured decision making workshop was held with MassWildlife staff to develop a decision framework for CWD management in MA. During the workshop, we defined the context and extent of CWD management activities in MA. Next, we identified four fundamental objectives that help achieve the mission of MassWildlife and that address stakeholder concerns. The fundamental objectives included: (1) maximizing hunter satisfaction and participation, (2) maximizing public satisfaction (non-consumptive), (3) maximizing health and sustainability of cervids, and (4) maximizing the efficiency of CWD management. Then, we generated a list of five alternatives (i.e., strategies) that varied the intensity of proactive and reactive actions. The five strategies were: (1) minimal proactive and minimal reactive actions, (2) intermediate proactive and intermediate reactive actions, (3) intensive proactive and intermediate reactive actions, (4) minimal proactive and intensive reactive actions, and (5) intensive proactive and intensive reactive actions. Lastly, we estimated the performance of each strategy on the fundamental objectives and assessed the overall performance of strategies relative to one another. We did so by first estimating the consequences of each alternative strategy on fundamental objectives using expert elicitation, and then, we elicited objective weights from MassWildlife staff to incorporate the relative importance of different fundamental objectives. Given that it is unknown when CWD will arrive in MA, we evaluated the performance of alternative strategies against fundamental objectives given three distinct scenarios for time to arrival of CWD: introduction in 2.5, 7.5, or 10+ years. The preliminary results of the rapid prototype indicate that the performance of the CWD management strategies that we evaluated depends on when CWD first arrives in MA. If CWD were to arrive in 2.5 or 7.5 years from now (February, 2024), then the ‘minimal proactive and minimal reactive’ strategy performs the best on both the deer population and cost fundamental objectives (fundamental objectives 3 & 4), but the ‘intensive proactive and intensive reactive’ strategy performs best on both of the human dimensions fundamental objectives (fundamental objectives 1 & 2) as well as the minimize CWD prevalence objective (also related to fundamental objective 3). We also found that public trust is likely to remain high across all five alternative strategies if CWD arrives after year 10, but public trust decreases if CWD arrives in year 2.5 or 7.5. After incorporating objective weights, we found that in scenarios where CWD arrives in the near-term (in years 2.5 or 7.5), an intermediate strategy (e.g., ‘intermediate proactive and intermediate reactive’ or ‘intensive proactive and intermediate reactive’) performed best, and the ‘minimal proactive and intensive reactive’ strategy performed worst. Conversely, if CWD were to arrive after 10 years, then the ‘minimal proactive and minimal reactive’ and ‘minimal proactive and intensive reactive’ strategies performed best. Collectively, these results suggest that the decision on which alternative strategy to employ is sensitive to when CWD arrives in MA. Following the discussion of the preliminary results, we identified the following four next steps. First, we discussed how a more detailed communications plan is needed and would likely alter the performance estimates of the alternative strategies on fundamental objectives 1 & 2, which were hunter and public satisfaction, respectively. The development of the communication plan would likely be easier once the alternative actions have been identified along with the audience and message. Second, a surveillance plan could be a useful tool to inform CWD management. Surveillance for CWD was performed in MA annually from 2002 to 2012 (n = 4,356 wild white-tailed deer and moose [Alces alces] samples). Limited surveillance was conducted from 2013 to 2022; and in 2023, 242 wild samples were collected. It is not clear whether MA needs a robust or minimal surveillance plan (e.g., is a minimal surveillance plan enough to detect the pathogen at the threshold that would trigger action?), or what type of invasion event the surveillance plan should target (e.g., natural vs anthropogenic spread events). The use of decision trees and a formal risk assessment may help answer these questions. Third, some of the elicited estimates from experts during this rapid prototype could be replaced with empirical data. Lastly, given that the decision was sensitive to when CWD arrived in MA and a surveillance plan would rely on the mode of introduction, forecasting and predicting the CWD invasion front and/or the likelihood of different incursion events across MA would provide valuable insights.

Massachusetts

Reservoir evolution, downstream sediment transport, downstream channel change, and synthesis of geomorphic responses of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River to water years 2012–18 streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake, Oregon

Executive Summary Chapter A. Introduction Fall Creek Dam impounds Fall Creek Lake, a 10-kilometer-long reservoir in western Oregon and is operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) primarily for flood-risk management (or flood control) in late autumn through early spring months, as well as for water quality, irrigation, recreation, and habitat in late spring through early autumn. Since 2011 (water year [WY] 2012), Fall Creek Lake has been temporarily drawn down each year to facilitate downstream passage of juvenile spring Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) through the 55-meter (m) high dam. This annual dam operation is temporary, typically lasting about 1–2 weeks from WY 2012 through 2020 (drawdown operations in WY 2022–24 have increased to more than 6 weeks). Drawdown of the reservoir results in lake levels being lowered to the elevation near the historical, pre-dam streambed. The annual streambed drawdowns of WY 2012–18 have improved fish passage and led the USACE to formally adopt streambed drawdowns as part of annual operations at Fall Creek Dam. However, temporarily lowering the lake to streambed creates free-flowing conditions in the reservoir that result in the erosion and episodic export of predominantly sand and finer-grained sediments (less than 2 millimeters [mm]) to the lower gravel-bed reaches of Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River. The introduction of large volumes of sand and finer-grain sediment into the dam-regulated reaches downstream from Fall Creek Dam prompted questions about the geomorphic responses to annual streambed drawdowns within Fall Creek Lake and downstream reaches along Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in partnership with USACE initiated a comprehensive geomorphic and sediment transport investigation to assess the coupled processes of reservoir erosion, sediment evacuation from Fall Creek Lake, and patterns of sediment transport and deposition in reaches downstream from the Fall Creek Dam that have resulted from annual streambed drawdowns. The purpose of this report is to systematically describe the processes of sediment erosion, transport, and deposition at Fall Creek Lake and geomorphic interactions between reaches upstream and downstream from Fall Creek Dam that relate to dam operations. Specifically, this report focuses on evaluating geomorphic responses to streambed drawdowns from WY 2012 through 2018 and placing drawdown-induced geomorphic responses within the broader context of physiographic and historical conditions and dam operations of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette Rivers. Key objectives for this study were to characterize changes in reservoir morphology and substrate at Fall Creek Lake, describe the character and temporal pattern of sediment transport downstream from Fall Creek Dam, characterize geomorphic changes in channel reaches downstream from the Fall Creek Dam, and relate these data to the annual streambed drawdowns of WY 2012–18. This study uses multiple independent monitoring and measurement approaches to assess site, reach, and river-scale geomorphic responses to drawdowns to inform dam and reservoir management. Patterns and processes of reservoir evolution were assessed with geomorphic mapping and volumetric analyses of topography through comparison of multiple digital surface models (DSMs). Just downstream from Fall Creek Dam, analyses of sediment export from the reservoir focused on suspended sediment but also incorporated bedload analyses to assess sediment sizes. Geomorphic assessments downstream from the dam used reach-scale and site-scale approaches to document changes in channel morphology and substrate, including site measurements of sand and finer-grained sediment deposition and in-channel bed-material, volumetric change analyses from comparison of digital elevation models (DEMs), and repeat geomorphic mapping. Findings from this study inform river management and dam operations by providing an understanding of (1) coupled upstream-downstream geomorphic responses to the Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns, (2) geomorphic responses of Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns in comparison to drawdowns at other large dams, (3) controls on reservoir erosion and downstream geomorphic responses, and (4) implications for future hydrogeomorphic changes that may result from continued drawdowns and monitoring activities to assess those changes. Chapter B. Reservoir Morphology and Evolution Related to Dam Operations at Fall Creek Lake To understand the volume and distribution of sediment accumulation in Fall Creek Lake since dam closure in 1965, decadal-scale sedimentation patterns (spanning approximately 1965–2016) are evaluated using a combination of storage curve analyses and geomorphic mapping. Short-term (drawdown event-scale) patterns of erosion, sedimentation, and sediment export downstream are evaluated using a combination of geomorphic mapping and change detection analyses that quantify the distribution and total volume of sediment erosion and deposition within Fall Creek Lake. Geomorphic mapping of reservoir topography and analyses of historical datasets reveals four categories of landforms and sediment processes within Fall Creek Lake related to lake level operations: lacustrine sedimentation expressed in the reservoir floor, fluvial erosion and deposition within historical stream channels during streambed drawdowns, channel-like features created by erosion within the reservoir floor during streambed drawdowns, and erosion on reservoir hillslopes. Where the reservoir floor is mapped for this study as pelagic (deep water), deposition up to 3 meters (m) thick by lacustrine processes and burial of pre-dam topography with deposits thinning toward the edges of the valley floor and upstream areas of reservoir are observed. Despite over 50 years of sediment accumulation since dam construction, the main stream channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks (or reservoir thalwegs) through the reservoir are well defined, though their distinct morphology is likely influenced by a long history of recurring historical drawdowns to or near streambed since dam construction. Unregulated streamflow and sediment transport through the reservoir primarily are confined to these channels during the streambed drawdown periods. Erosional channel-like features created by drawdowns are carved through underlying, unconsolidated reservoir floor sediments and are most prominent in the lower reservoir below minimum conservation pool (the low pool elevation during winter flood season); sediment generated from the formation of these drawdown channels is more likely to be transported through and out of the reservoir than sediment deposits along the reservoir hillslopes at the valley margins that are separated from main channels by areas of low-gradient reservoir floor. Morphologic changes in the lower reservoir topography between January 2012 and November 2016 indicate overall net erosion of about 129,500 cubic meters (m 3 ). The most prominent geomorphic changes occurred along the main channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks near the Fall Creek Dam where incision, lateral migration, and slumping banks resulted in vertical and lateral adjustments to channel position, whereas most changes fell below the detectable limit on higher-elevation reservoir floor surfaces except where erosion occurred along features mapped as drawdown channels. Chapter C. Sediment Delivery from Fall Creek Lake and Transport through Downstream Reaches USGS implemented a sediment monitoring program in WY 2013–18 to evaluate the quantity and character of reservoir sediment exported from Fall Creek Lake during streambed drawdowns. Turbidity and suspended sediments were monitored annually autumn through spring to span the WY 2013–18 streambed drawdowns; however, unequal monitoring timeframes each year reduced the ability to compare results and factors affecting sediment export from the reservoir difficult between years. These data were originally measured to develop regressions and compute suspended-sediment loads (SSL). Bedload sediment monitoring from a cableway at the Fall Creek streamgage was completed in the autumn-winter of WY 2013 and 2017. The limited number of samples and presumed variability in sediment supply from the reservoir precluded construction of streamflow and bedload discharge relations to compute more than instantaneous bedload. Sand and finer-grained silts and clays were transported from the reservoir in suspension, though some coarser grains (up to 32 mm) were also mobilized and transported downstream from the dam as bedload. Observations of increased sediment transport downstream from Fall Creek Dam coincided with lake levels approaching about 3 m (10 feet [ft] or elevation 690 ft) above the streambed regulating outlets. Suspended-sediment loads computed for the full monitoring periods WY 2013–18 at the Fall Creek streamgage, located 1.4 kilometers (km) downstream from Fall Creek Dam, range from 54,700 metric tons (t) in WY 2013 to 13,900 t in WY 2018. Although the total annual SSL varied from year to year, the overall seasonal patterns of suspended sediment transport throughout each year were similar during monitoring in WY 2013-18. Suspended-sediment loads were low prior to the drawdown, then increased rapidly as lake levels lowered and approached the streambed. In the weeks following the drawdown period, as pool levels were increased, SSL remained slightly elevated above pre-drawdown levels but generally declined through the following winter and spring except during streamflow-driven pulses of suspended-sediment transport. WY 2013 had the greatest total computed SSL for each streambed drawdown and partial-year monitoring period. SSL computed for the partial-year period have generally decreased since WY 2013 and have varied by about 6,800 t with the exception of WY 2014. WY 2014 SSL reflects anomalously low sediment export due to low streamflows and freezing conditions that stabilized reservoir floor deposits. Bedload measurements in the short 1.4-km reach between Fall Creek Dam and the Fall Creek streamgage showed an inverse correlation between bedload transport rates and discharge, which probably reflects diminishing supply of coarse-sized sediment. Sand was more abundant (60–100 percent) than gravel in bedload samples confirming sand and finer-grained sediment dominated sediment evacuated from the reservoir during streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake. Chapter D. Geomorphic Responses to Fall Creek Lake Streambed Drawdowns Downstream from Fall Creek Dam In the days, weeks, and months following streambed drawdown operations at Fall Creek Dam through WY 2018, sites downstream from the dam displayed a variety of geomorphic responses to reservoir sediment delivery within the main channel and overbank areas. Evaluation of streambed elevations at two streamgages located 1.4 km downstream from the dam on Fall Creek and 16.3 km downstream from the dam on the Middle Fork Willamette River indicated the effects of drawdown sediment on bed elevations were modest and transient. Repeat particle size measurements (October 2015 and September 2016) at five sites along Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River showed similar grain-sized distributions that do not reveal substantial deposition of fine-grained sediment related to the WY 2016 streambed drawdown. Altogether, these findings indicate that transport capacity in the main, low-flow channels of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River during WY 2012–18 was sufficient to mobilize and evacuate reservoir sediments from streambed drawdowns or other bank material and tributary sources. However, other monitoring for this study indicate low-velocity zones in off-channel areas are prime locations for sand and finer-grain sediment deposition. Patterns of overbank sediment accumulation indicate that the magnitude and timing of overbank deposition on bars and low-elevation floodplain varies with proximity to the dam, geomorphic setting, streamflows, and other factors. Sand and finer-grained reservoir sediments carried as suspended-sediment load in the reaches downstream from Fall Creek Dam were deposited in overbank areas as observed with clay-horizon markers during WY 2016–17. Overbank deposition quantified with Geomorphic Change Detection (GCD) software evaluated landform-scale patterns of erosion and deposition using repeat light detection and ranging (lidar) surveys at two sites in the Upper Fall Creek reach and one site in the Jasper reach for 3 years (2012–15) and one site in the Clearwater reach for 6 years (2009–15). Deposition thickness and spatial patterns from the GCD analysis were variable; some sites had dispersed but measurable deposition while at others, deposition was highly localized and exceeded 1 m in depth. Patterns of overbank deposition illustrate interactions among bar morphology, local hydraulics, and suspended-sediment transport dynamics that can create patches of highly localized deposition. The measured deposition at the two Fall Creek GCD sites likely resulted from reservoir sediments released from Fall Creek Lake during streambed drawdowns in WY 2016 and 2017 because the limited sediment inputs from bank material (geomorphically laterally stable reach) or tributaries (no significant tributaries) provided few other sediment sources. On the Middle Fork Willamette River, observed patterns of overbank deposition could reflect sediment sourced from upstream tributaries, bank erosion, or Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdown operations. Despite the introduction of several thousand tons of reservoir sediment delivered from the Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns to below-dam river corridors, reach-scale mapping of channel features downstream from Fall Creek Dam shows minimal evidence of changes in channel planform or landforms that can be attributed to a drawdowns in WY 2012–16. On Upper Fall Creek reach, widespread increases in gravel bars or other in-channel sediment did not result from the five streambed drawdowns. The main changes attributable to sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake were localized increases in vegetated bar area, particularly on channel margin areas where sand and finer-grain sediment was deposited and rapidly colonized by vegetation. The area of mapped secondary water features decreased between 2005 and 2016, but that may be due to lower discharges depicted in the 2016 aerial photographs and less mapped area of inundation. Primary changes along the Lower Fall Creek reach include a 6.4 percent decrease in area of secondary water features between 2011 and 2016, and a nearly twofold increase in the area of unvegetated bars. Immediately downstream from the Fall Creek confluence, there were negligible changes in the location and areas of vegetated bars and the main wetted channel between 2005 and 2016, and local increases in bar area cannot be attributed solely to deposition of reservoir sediments from Fall Creek Lake because (1) areas along the Middle Fork Willamette River just upstream from the Fall Creek confluence display similar type and magnitude of changes and (2) some of the increases at the confluence area pre-date the drawdowns. The cumulative effect of sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns from WY 2012 to 2016 on downstream channel planform and landforms are modest compared to the river-scale transformations and planform changes that occurred in the decades following dam construction. Chapter E. Discussion of Geomorphic Responses of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River to Streambed Drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake Multiple aspects of Fall Creek Dam infrastructure and operations exert first-order controls on the magnitudes of reservoir erosion that occur during the streambed drawdowns and ultimately determine the sediment delivery to downstream reaches. Key aspects of the dam and its operations that are most relevant to assessing geomorphic responses to streambed drawdowns include the (1) dam infrastructure, including configuration and size of regulating outlets and their proximity to the streambed which dictates the capacity and competence of the river to deliver sediment to downstream reaches and mode of sediment transport as suspended-sediment load or bedload; (2) frequency of historical drawdowns and long-term, year-round dam operations and lake level management, which partly dictate reservoir morphology and locations and magnitudes of readily erodible materials; (3) dam operations and hydroclimatic conditions during the streambed drawdown (including length of the drawdown and streamflows entering the reservoir), which directly control the timing, duration and magnitude of reservoir erosion and sediment evacuation; and (4) dam operations following the streambed drawdown operation that regulate streamflows (and thereby sediment transport conditions) downstream of Fall Creek Dam which primarily reflect interactions between hydroclimatic conditions and flood control operations. Patterns of sediment erosion and evacuation observed in this study at Fall Creek Lake from WY 2012–18 suggest that reservoir erosion during annual streambed drawdowns may remain similar or decrease in future years assuming (1) annual streambed drawdown operations are implemented in similar manner as the WY 2012–18 drawdowns (in terms of duration, late autumn or early winter implementation, rate of pool-level lowering to reach streambed, and other factors), (2) streambed drawdowns coincide with similar conditions as were observed WY 2012–18 (similar sediment yield into reservoir, low reservoir inflows, limited precipitation, moderate air temperature), and (3) no major geomorphic changes in the main reservoir channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks occur (for example, channel avulsion). Under such conditions, it is hypothesized that the stream channel within the reservoir would achieve a quasi-equilibrium state with respect to annual influx and export of sediment and aided by the substantial amount of in-channel bedrock, will remain laterally stable without erosion across reservoir deposits. Patterns of sediment transport measured at the Fall Creek streamgage downstream from Fall Creek Dam provide insight into the potential effects of future streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake. Analyses of suspended sediment measured in WY 2013–18 show a major reduction in suspended-sediment loads between WY 2013 and later years, indicating streamflows transporting sediment through the reservoir to downstream reaches during streambed drawdowns have become supply limited. The 6-year suspended-sediment monitoring and sampling program is insufficient to make predictions about future sediment transport conditions because of uneven monitoring periods and varying controls on reservoir sediment erosion. It is likely that future suspended-sediment loads will be variable but similar to those observed in WY 2015–18 if operational, climatic, and geomorphological factors remain similar to those monitored WY 2015–18. Suspended-sediment loads downstream from Fall Creek Lake will likely remain highest when regulating outlets are fully open and Fall Creek is free flowing with the reservoir fully drained with little to no residual pool. Over time, it is possible that the suspended-sediment loads would reflect mobilization of reservoir sediment deposited in the previous year rather than erosion of sediment deposited years or decades earlier. Bedload is likely to remain a small fraction of the total sediment load evacuated from the reservoir and is relatively modest compared with pre-dam bedload transport rates because most coarse sediment remains trapped by the dam. If sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake and ensuing streamflow conditions follow a similar pattern in the future as was assessed in this study spanning WY 2012–18, near-term geomorphic adjustments downstream of the dam are expected to be modest. Barring major operational, climatic, and geomorphological changes, local site-scale deposition on bars, overbank areas, or off-channel features that persists several months after the streambed drawdown will likely continue to be highly variable, ranging from negligible to several centimeters of deposition. At the landform-scale, low velocity areas nearest to Fall Creek Dam will likely continue to undergo rapid deposition immediately during and after a streambed drawdown event, similar to patterns observed for WY 2012–18. Some of the sediment entering these off-channel features and margin areas may be temporarily stored, then later remobilized and dispersed farther downstream. But if newly deposited sediment persists through the following spring, there is a greater likelihood that local vegetation will establish, reinforce deposited material, and trap sediment during later drawdowns. The reach-scale geomorphic changes may become more apparent if (1) streambed drawdowns continued for several decades, and geomorphic changes were measured at decadal scales or (2) the amount of sediment introduced to downstream reaches substantially increased and (or) sediment transport capacity decreased. The continued streamflow regulation of Fall Creek Dam after sediment releases provides an opportunity to strategically manage streamflows during and after the streambed drawdowns to minimize downstream sediment impacts and ensure other operational thresholds are satisfied. This study provides a comprehensive foundation of datasets and geomorphic analyses to inform dam operations at Fall Creek Lake, monitor sediment transport downstream, and consider operational schemes for future drawdowns. The datasets from this study also provide baselines of sediment transport and geomorphic conditions to assess future changes in reservoir and downstream environments. Future monitoring could be tailored to address specific questions regarding the long-term geomorphic effects of streambed drawdowns on fluvial habitats, flood hazards, cultural resources, or downstream water quality. Future monitoring activities could focus on the relevant geomorphic processes and spatial domains within the three categories used for this study: (1) reservoir erosion and net sediment evacuation, (2) sediment delivery to downstream reaches, including magnitude and temporal pattern of sediment transport, and (3) geomorphic responses of downstream reaches to sediment delivery. Specifically, high priority future monitoring activities could include: Repeat topographic or photographic surveys in the reservoir to characterize changes occurring within individual drawdowns, to quantify sediment export, to determine temporal changes in reservoir storage, and to identify locations of erosion and deposition. Continuous, year-round turbidity monitoring supplemented with suspended-sediment measurements at a streamflow-gaging station immediately downstream from the dam to quantify sediment export. Repeat geomorphic monitoring, mapping, or modeling in downstream reaches to track changes in channel and over bank features using a combination of site- and reach-scale monitoring approaches. This could support assessments of sediment deposition and ensuing vegetation encroachment on flood hazards and habitats and examine how sediment transport and depositional processes may be affected by different sediment supply, streamflow, or dam management scenarios.

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