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USGS2016

Summary of the GK15 ground‐motion prediction equation for horizontal PGA and 5% damped PSA from shallow crustal continental earthquakes

We present a revised ground‐motion prediction equation (GMPE) for computing medians and standard deviations of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5% damped pseudospectral acceleration (PSA) response ordinates of the horizontal component of randomly oriented ground motions to be used for seismic‐hazard analyses and engineering applications. This GMPE is derived from the expanded Next Generation Attenuation (NGA)‐West 1 database (see Data and Resources ; Chiou et al. , 2008 ). The revised model includes an anelastic attenuation term as a function of quality factor ( Q 0 ) to capture regional differences in far‐source (beyond 150 km) attenuation, and a new frequency‐dependent sedimentary‐basin scaling term as a function of depth to the 1.5  km/s shear‐wave velocity isosurface to improve ground‐motion predictions at sites located on deep sedimentary basins. The new Graizer–Kalkan 2015 (GK15) model, developed to be simple, is applicable for the western United States and other similar shallow crustal continental regions in active tectonic environments for earthquakes with moment magnitudes ( M ) 5.0–8.0, distances 0–250 km, average shear‐wave velocities in the upper 30 m ( V S 30 ) 200–1300  m/s, and spectral periods ( T ) 0.01–5 s. Our aleatory variability model captures interevent (between‐event) variability, which decreases with magnitude and increases with distance. The mixed‐effect residuals analysis reveals that the GK15 has no trend with respect to the independent predictor parameters. Compared to our 2007–2009 GMPE, the PGA values are very similar, whereas spectral ordinates predicted are larger at T <0.2  s and they are smaller at longer periods.

Alaska, California, Nevada↗

USGS2016

Uncertainty in V s30 -based site response

Methods that account for site response range in complexity from simple linear categorical adjustment factors to sophisticated nonlinear constitutive models. Seismic‐hazard analysis usually relies on ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs); within this framework site response is modeled statistically with simplified site parameters that include the time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity to 30 m ( V S 30 ) and basin depth parameters. Because V S 30 is not known in most locations, it must be interpolated or inferred through secondary information such as geology or topography. In this article, we analyze a subset of stations for which V S 30 has been measured to address effects of V S 30 proxies on the uncertainty in the ground motions as modeled by GMPEs. The stations we analyze also include multiple recordings, which allow us to compute the repeatable site effects (or empirical amplification factors [EAFs]) from the ground motions. Although all methods exhibit similar bias, the proxy methods only reduce the ground‐motion standard deviations at long periods when compared to GMPEs without a site term, whereas measured V S 30 values reduce the standard deviations at all periods. The standard deviation of the ground motions are much lower when the EAFs are used, indicating that future refinements of the site term in GMPEs have the potential to substantially reduce the overall uncertainty in the prediction of ground motions by GMPEs.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2015

Determining generic velocity and density models for crustal amplification calculations, with an update of the Boore and Joyner (1997) Generic Site Amplification for Graphic Site Amplification

This short note contains two contributions related to deriving depth‐dependent velocity and density models for use in computing generic crustal amplifications. The first contribution is a method for interpolating two velocity profiles to obtain a third profile with a time‐averaged velocity to depth Z that is equal to a specified value (e.g., for shear‐wave velocity V S , for Z =30  m, in which the subscript S has been added to indicate that the average is for shear‐wave velocities). The second contribution is a procedure for obtaining densities from V S . The first contribution is used to extend and revise the Boore and Joyner (1997) generic rock V S model, for which , to a model with the more common . This new model is then used with the densities from the second contribution to compute crustal amplifications for a generic site with .

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2016

Site effects in Port-au-Prince (Haiti) from the analysis of spectral ratio and numerical simulations.

To provide better insight into seismic ground motion in the Port‐au‐Prince metropolitan area, we investigate site effects at 12 seismological stations by analyzing 78 earthquakes with magnitude smaller than 5 that occurred between 2010 and 2013. Horizontal‐to‐vertical spectral ratio on earthquake recordings and a standard spectral ratio were applied to the seismic data. We also propose a simplified lithostratigraphic map and use available geotechnical and geophysical data to construct representative soil columns in the vicinity of each station that allow us to compute numerical transfer functions using 1D simulations. At most of the studied sites, spectral ratios are characterized by weak‐motion amplification at frequencies above 5 Hz, in good agreement with the numerical transfer functions. A mismatch between the observed amplifications and simulated response at lower frequencies shows that the considered soil columns could be missing a deeper velocity contrast. Furthermore, strong amplification between 2 and 10 Hz linked to local topographic features is found at one station located in the south of the city, and substantial amplification below 5 Hz is detected near the coastline, which we attribute to deep and soft sediments as well as the presence of surface waves. We conclude that for most investigated sites in Port‐au‐Prince, seismic amplifications due to site effects are highly variable but seem not to be important at high frequencies. At some specific locations, however, they could strongly enhance the low‐frequency content of the seismic ground shaking. Although our analysis does not consider nonlinear effects, we thus conclude that, apart from sites close to the coast, sediment‐induced amplification probably had only a minor impact on the level of strong ground motion, and was not the main reason for the high level of damage in Port‐au‐Prince.

Port-au-Prince↗

USGS2016

Seismic envelope-based detection and location of ground-coupled airwaves from volcanoes in Alaska

Volcanic explosions and other infrasonic sources frequently produce acoustic waves that are recorded by seismometers. Here we explore multiple techniques to detect, locate, and characterize ground‐coupled airwaves (GCA) on volcano seismic networks in Alaska. GCA waveforms are typically incoherent between stations, thus we use envelope‐based techniques in our analyses. For distant sources and planar waves, we use f ‐ k beamforming to estimate back azimuth and trace velocity parameters. For spherical waves originating within the network, we use two related time difference of arrival (TDOA) methods to detect and localize the source. We investigate a modified envelope function to enhance the signal‐to‐noise ratio and emphasize both high energies and energy contrasts within a spectrogram. We apply these methods to recent eruptions from Cleveland, Veniaminof, and Pavlof Volcanoes, Alaska. Array processing of GCA from Cleveland Volcano on 4 May 2013 produces robust detection and wave characterization. Our modified envelopes substantially improve the short‐term average/long‐term average ratios, enhancing explosion detection. We detect GCA within both the Veniaminof and Pavlof networks from the 2007 and 2013–2014 activity, indicating repeated volcanic explosions. Event clustering and forward modeling suggests that high‐resolution localization is possible for GCA on typical volcano seismic networks. These results indicate that GCA can be used to help detect, locate, characterize, and monitor volcanic eruptions, particularly in difficult‐to‐monitor regions. We have implemented these GCA detection algorithms into our operational volcano‐monitoring algorithms at the Alaska Volcano Observatory.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

Developments in new fluid rotational seismometers: Instrument performance and future directions

In this article we describe prototype designs and tests for low-cost rota- tional medium- and strong-motion seismometers using three types of proof mass (two liquid and one solid) and a number of transducer configurations. This article describes the third set of designs and tests in our development program. The details of our results for most of these are in the E electronic supplement to this article, whereas here we concentrate on three of the most promising and representative design combinations. Most of our results pertain to sensors with water or silicon oil as the proof mass, though we also tested a torsion-bar design with a solid proof mass. We find that most mass–transducer combinations lead to output proportional to rotational acceleration, with varying degrees of fidelity. Most combinations we tested can be dismissed from further development for reasons of performance or inconvenience during analysis of acceleration response (compare with E electronic supplement). In this article, we describe three of the more promising combinations, one each for the three types of response functions we measured. Of these three, one mass–transducer combination in particular (a hinged sensing element and capacitive transduction) has output voltage closely proportional to rotational displacement (angle) over a wide frequency range; such displacement proportionality obviates two of the integration steps normally re- quired to solve for continuum single-point motions or correct for tilt-induced errors in horizontal translational sensors. Thus, although we illustrate two other designs of some promise, we propose a new design that follows this displacement-proportional path while increasing the device’s sensitivity to on-axis rotations, improving its manu- facturing ease and lowering its sensitivity to translational motions.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2016

Seismic site characterization of an urban dedimentary basin, Livermore Valley, California: Site tesponse, basin-edge-induced surface waves, and 3D simulations

Thirty‐two accelerometers were deployed in the Livermore Valley, California, for approximately one year to study sedimentary basin effects. Many local and near‐regional earthquakes were recorded, including the 24 August 2014 M w 6.0 Napa, California, earthquake. The resulting ground‐motion data set is used to quantify the seismic response of the Livermore basin, a major structural depression in the California Coast Range Province bounded by active faults. Site response is calculated by two methods: the reference‐site spectral ratio method and a source‐site spectral inversion method. Longer‐period (≥1  s) amplification factors follow the same general pattern as Bouguer gravity anomaly contours. Site response spectra are inverted for shallow shear‐wave velocity profiles, which are consistent with independent information. Frequency–wavenumber analysis is used to analyze plane‐wave propagation across the Livermore Valley and to identify basin‐edge‐induced surface waves with back azimuths different from the source back azimuth. Finite‐element simulations in a 3D velocity model of the region illustrate the generation of basin‐edge‐induced surface waves and point out strips of elevated ground velocities along the margins of the basin.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2016

Seismic imaging beneath an InSAR anomaly in eastern Washington State: Shallow faulting associated with an earthquake swarm in a low-hazard area

In 2001, a rare swarm of small, shallow earthquakes beneath the city of Spokane, Washington, caused ground shaking as well as audible booms over a five‐month period. Subsequent Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data analysis revealed an area of surface uplift in the vicinity of the earthquake swarm. To investigate the potential faults that may have caused both the earthquakes and the topographic uplift, we collected ∼3 km of high‐resolution seismic‐reflection profiles to image the upper‐source region of the swarm. The two profiles reveal a complex deformational pattern within Quaternary alluvial, fluvial, and flood deposits, underlain by Tertiary basalts and basin sediments. At least 100 m of arching on a basalt surface in the upper 500 m is interpreted from both the seismic profiles and magnetic modeling. Two west‐dipping faults deform Quaternary sediments and project to the surface near the location of the Spokane fault defined from modeling of the InSAR data.

Washington↗

USGS2016

Erratum to Surface‐wave green’s tensors in the near field

Haney and Nakahara (2014) derived expressions for surface‐wave Green’s tensors that included near‐field behavior. Building on the result for a force source, Haney and Nakahara (2014) further derived expressions for a general point moment tensor source using the exact Green’s tensors. However, it has come to our attention that, although the Green’s tensors were correct, the resulting expressions for a general point moment tensor source were missing some terms. In this erratum, we provide updated expressions with these missing terms. The inclusion of the missing terms changes the example given in Haney and Nakahara (2014).

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2017

A fault‐based model for crustal deformation in the western United States based on a combined inversion of GPS and geologic inputs

We develop a crustal deformation model to determine fault‐slip rates for the western United States (WUS) using the Zeng and Shen (2014) method that is based on a combined inversion of Global Positioning System (GPS) velocities and geological slip‐rate constraints. The model consists of six blocks with boundaries aligned along major faults in California and the Cascadia subduction zone, which are represented as buried dislocations in the Earth. Faults distributed within blocks have their geometrical structure and locking depths specified by the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 3 (UCERF3) and the 2008 U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Map Project model. Faults slip beneath a predefined locking depth, except for a few segments where shallow creep is allowed. The slip rates are estimated using a least‐squares inversion. The model resolution analysis shows that the resulting model is influenced heavily by geologic input, which fits the UCERF3 geologic bounds on California B faults and ±one‐half of the geologic slip rates for most other WUS faults. The modeled slip rates for the WUS faults are consistent with the observed GPS velocity field. Our fit to these velocities is measured in terms of a normalized chi‐square, which is 6.5. This updated model fits the data better than most other geodetic‐based inversion models. Major discrepancies between well‐resolved GPS inversion rates and geologic‐consensus rates occur along some of the northern California A faults, the Mojave to San Bernardino segments of the San Andreas fault, the western Garlock fault, the southern segment of the Wasatch fault, and other faults. Off‐fault strain‐rate distributions are consistent with regional tectonics, with a total off‐fault moment rate of 7.2 × 10 18 "> 7.2 × 10 18 and 8.5 × 10 18    N · m / year "> 8.5 × 10 18 N ⋅ m / year for California and the WUS outside California, respectively.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2016

Simulation of earthquake ground motions in the eastern United States using deterministic physics‐based and site‐based stochastic approaches

Earthquake ground‐motion recordings are scarce in the central and eastern United States (CEUS) for large‐magnitude events and at close distances. We use two different simulation approaches, a deterministic physics‐based method and a site‐based stochastic method, to simulate ground motions over a wide range of magnitudes. Drawing on previous results for the modeling of recordings from the 2011 M w 5.8 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake and using the 2001 M w 7.6 Bhuj, India, earthquake as a tectonic analog for a large magnitude CEUS event, we are able to calibrate the two simulation methods over this magnitude range. Both models show a good fit to the Mineral and Bhuj observations from 0.1 to 10 Hz. Model parameters are then adjusted to obtain simulations for M w 6.5, 7.0, and 7.6 events in the CEUS. Our simulations are compared with the 2014 U.S. Geological Survey weighted combination of existing ground‐motion prediction equations in the CEUS. The physics‐based simulations show comparable response spectral amplitudes and a fairly similar attenuation with distance. The site‐based stochastic simulations suggest a slightly faster attenuation of the response spectral amplitudes with distance for larger magnitude events and, as a result, slightly lower amplitudes at distances greater than 200 km. Both models are plausible alternatives and, given the few available data points in the CEUS, can be used to represent the epistemic uncertainty in modeling of postulated CEUS large‐magnitude events.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2016

Subsurface fault damage zone of the 2014 M w 6.0 South Napa, California, earthquake viewed from fault‐zone trapped waves

The aftershocks of the 24 August 2014 M w 6.0 South Napa earthquake generated prominent fault‐zone trapped waves (FZTWs) that were recorded on two 1.9‐km‐long seismic arrays deployed across the northern projection (array 1, A1) and the southern part (A2) of the surface rupture of the West Napa fault zone (WNFZ). We also observed FZTWs on an array (A3) deployed across the intersection of the Franklin and Southampton faults, which appear to be the southward continuations of the WNFZ. A1, A2, and A3 consisted of 20, 20, and 10 L28 (4.5 Hz) three‐component seismographs. We analyzed waveforms of FZTWs from 55 aftershocks in both time and frequency to characterize the fault damage zone associated with this M w 6.0 earthquake. Post‐ S coda durations of FZTWs increase with epicentral distances and focal depths from the recording arrays, suggesting a low‐velocity waveguide along the WNFZ to depths in excess of 5–7 km. Locations of the aftershocks showing FZTWs, combined with 3D finite‐difference simulations, suggest the subsurface rupture zone having an S ‐wave speed reduction of ∼40%–50% between A1 and A2, coincident with the ∼14‐km‐long mapped surface rupture zone and at least an ∼500‐m‐wide deformation zone. The low‐velocity waveguide along the WNFZ extends further southward to at least A3, but with a more moderate‐velocity reduction of 30%–35% at ray depth. This last FZTW observation suggests continuity between the WNFZ and Franklin fault. The waveguide effect may have localized and amplified ground shaking along the WNFZ and the faults farther to the south (see a companion paper by Catchings et al. , 2016 ).

California↗

USGS2016

Maximum magnitude ( M max ) in the central and eastern United States for the 2014 U.S. Geological Survey Hazard Model

Probabilistic seismic‐hazard assessment (PSHA) requires an estimate of M max , the moment magnitude M of the largest earthquake that could occur within a specified area. Sparse seismicity hinders M max estimation in the central and eastern United States (CEUS) and tectonically similar regions worldwide (stable continental regions [SCRs]). A new global catalog of moderate‐to‐large SCR earthquakes is analyzed with minimal assumptions about enigmatic geologic controls on SCR M max . An earlier observation that SCR earthquakes of M 7.0 and larger occur in young (250–23 Ma) passive continental margins and associated rifts but not in cratons is not strongly supported by the new catalog. SCR earthquakes of M 7.5 and larger are slightly more numerous and reach slightly higher M in young passive margins and rifts than in cratons. However, overall histograms of M from young margins and rifts and from cratons are statistically indistinguishable. This conclusion is robust under uncertainties in M , the locations of SCR boundaries, and which of two available global SCR catalogs is used. The conclusion stems largely from recent findings that (1) large southeast Asian earthquakes once thought to be SCR were in actively deforming crust and (2) long escarpments in cratonic Australia were formed by prehistoric faulting. The 2014 seismic‐hazard model of the U.S. Geological Survey represents CEUS M max as four‐point probability distributions. The distributions have weighted averages of M 7.0 in cratons and M 7.4 in passive margins and rifts. These weighted averages are consistent with M max estimates of other SCR PSHAs of the CEUS, southeastern Canada, Australia, and India.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2017

System identification based on deconvolution and cross correlation: An application to a 20‐story instrumented building in Anchorage, Alaska

Deconvolution and cross‐correlation techniques are used for system identification of a 20‐story steel, moment‐resisting frame building in downtown Anchorage, Alaska. This regular‐plan midrise structure is instrumented with a 32‐channel accelerometer array at 10 levels. The impulse response functions (IRFs) and correlation functions (CFs) are computed based on waveforms recorded from ambient vibrations and five local and regional earthquakes. The earthquakes occurred from 2005 to 2014 with moment magnitudes between 4.7 and 6.2 over a range of azimuths at epicenter distances of 13.3–183 km. The building’s fundamental frequencies and mode shapes are determined using a complex mode indicator function based on singular value decomposition of multiple reference frequency‐response functions. The traveling waves, identified in IRFs with a virtual source at the roof, and CFs are used to estimate the intrinsic attenuation associated with the fundamental modes and shear‐wave velocity in the building. Although the cross correlation of the waveforms at various levels with the corresponding waveform at the first floor provides more complicated wave propagation than that from the deconvolution with virtual source at the roof, the shear‐wave velocities identified by both techniques are consistent—the largest difference in average values is within 8%. The median shear‐wave velocity from the IRFs of five earthquakes is 191 m/s for the east–west (E‐W), 205 m/s for the north–south (N‐S), and 176 m/s for the torsional responses. The building’s average intrinsic‐damping ratio is estimated to be 3.7% and 3.4% in the 0.2–1 Hz frequency band for the E‐W and N‐S directions, respectively. These results are intended to serve as reference for the undamaged condition of the building, which may be used for tracking changes in structural integrity during and after future earthquakes.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

Three ingredients for Improved global aftershock forecasts: Tectonic region, time-dependent catalog incompleteness, and inter-sequence variability

Following a large earthquake, seismic hazard can be orders of magnitude higher than the long‐term average as a result of aftershock triggering. Because of this heightened hazard, emergency managers and the public demand rapid, authoritative, and reliable aftershock forecasts. In the past, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) aftershock forecasts following large global earthquakes have been released on an ad hoc basis with inconsistent methods, and in some cases aftershock parameters adapted from California. To remedy this, the USGS is currently developing an automated aftershock product based on the Reasenberg and Jones (1989) method that will generate more accurate forecasts. To better capture spatial variations in aftershock productivity and decay, we estimate regional aftershock parameters for sequences within the García et al. (2012) tectonic regions. We find that regional variations for mean aftershock productivity reach almost a factor of 10. We also develop a method to account for the time‐dependent magnitude of completeness following large events in the catalog. In addition to estimating average sequence parameters within regions, we develop an inverse method to estimate the intersequence parameter variability. This allows for a more complete quantification of the forecast uncertainties and Bayesian updating of the forecast as sequence‐specific information becomes available.

California↗

USGS2016

Kinematic ground motion simulations on rough faults including effects of 3D stochastic velocity perturbations

We describe a methodology for generating kinematic earthquake ruptures for use in 3D ground‐motion simulations over the 0–5 Hz frequency band. Our approach begins by specifying a spatially random slip distribution that has a roughly wavenumber‐squared fall‐off. Given a hypocenter, the rupture speed is specified to average about 75%–80% of the local shear wavespeed and the prescribed slip‐rate function has a Kostrov‐like shape with a fault‐averaged rise time that scales self‐similarly with the seismic moment. Both the rupture time and rise time include significant local perturbations across the fault surface specified by spatially random fields that are partially correlated with the underlying slip distribution. We represent velocity‐strengthening fault zones in the shallow (<5 km) and deep (>15 km) crust by decreasing rupture speed and increasing rise time in these regions. Additional refinements to this approach include the incorporation of geometric perturbations to the fault surface, 3D stochastic correlated perturbations to the P ‐ and S ‐wave velocity structure, and a damage zone surrounding the shallow fault surface characterized by a 30% reduction in seismic velocity. We demonstrate the approach using a suite of simulations for a hypothetical M w 6.45 strike‐slip earthquake embedded in a generalized hard‐rock velocity structure. The simulation results are compared with the median predictions from the 2014 Next Generation Attenuation‐West2 Project ground‐motion prediction equations and show very good agreement over the frequency band 0.1–5 Hz for distances out to 25 km from the fault. Additionally, the newly added features act to reduce the coherency of the radiated higher frequency ( f >1 Hz) ground motions, and homogenize radiation‐pattern effects in this same bandwidth, which move the simulations closer to the statistical characteristics of observed motions as illustrated by comparison with recordings from the 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2018

Review: Past and future fault rupture lengths in seismic source characterization—The long and short of it

The potential rupture length of an active fault is primary input, and an uncertainty, in source characterization for seismic hazard analysis. The past several decades have seen source models in which faults are divided into potential rupture segments based on fault‐specific behavioral and geometric observations. These models (prescribed segmentation) produced single and multisegment ruptures for use in earthquake probability and regional ground‐motion estimates. The 2013 Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), relaxed segmentation through modeling of fault‐to‐fault jumps that result in ruptures along the San Andreas fault system as long as 1200 km. Principle controls of UCERF3 rupture length are the stepover distance between different faults or fault sections, and their orientation relative to modeled coulomb stress changes. Observations of surface faulting worldwide since the mid‐1800s in shallow continental crust show that only 30 of the reported ruptures, about 12% of the reported examples, have been longer than 100 km; only 6 have been longer than 300 km and none has exceeded 500 km. A review of characteristics of long ruptures shows that, in general, they occur along essentially continuous traces with limited stepping or branching from one fault to another as opposed to rupture propagation on linkages of different faults with highly variable physical characteristics. These commonly occupy from 10% to 70% of the total host fault length. Neither segmented nor relaxed models of rupture length have been tested by the occurrence of actual ruptures. There is no reason why segmentation models incorporating timing, dynamic, and rheological factors cannot provide reasonable approximations of future rupture length. For many faults of concern worldwide, this may be the most effective approach.

California↗

USGS2016

Modeling strong‐motion recordings of the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile, earthquake with high stress‐drop subevents and background slip

Strong‐motion recordings of the M w 8.8 Maule earthquake were modeled using a compound rupture model consisting of (1) a background slip distribution with large correlation lengths, relatively low slip velocity, and long peak rise time of slip of about 10 s and (2) high stress‐drop subevents (asperities) on the deeper portion of the rupture with moment magnitudes 7.9–8.2, high slip velocity, and rise times of slip of about 2 s. In this model, the high‐frequency energy is not produced in the same location as the peak coseismic slip, but is generated in the deeper part of the rupture zone. Using synthetic seismograms generated for a plane‐layered velocity model, I find that the high stress‐drop subevents explain the observed Fourier spectral amplitude from about 0.1 to 1.0 Hz. Broadband synthetics (0–10 Hz) were calculated by combining deterministic synthetics derived from the background slip and asperities (≤1 Hz) with stochastic synthetics generated only at the asperities (≥1 Hz). The broadband synthetics produced response spectral accelerations with low bias compared to the data, for periods of 0.1–10 s. A subevent stress drop of 200–350 bars for the high‐frequency stochastic synthetics was found to bracket the observed spectral accelerations at frequencies greater than 1 Hz. For most of the stations, the synthetics had durations of the Arias intensity similar to the observed records.

Maule↗