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At least 505 records · Page 28Linked to original sources

Drought and nutrient pollution produce multiple interactive effects in stream ecosystems

Drought and nutrient pollution can affect the dynamics of stream ecosystems in diverse ways. While the individual effects of both stressors are broadly examined in the literature, we still know relatively little about if and how these stressors interact. Here, we performed a mesocosm experiment that explores the compounded effects of seasonal drought via water withdrawals and nutrient pollution (1.0 mg/L of N and 0.1 mg/L of P) on a subset of Ozark stream community fauna and ecosystem processes. We observed biological responses to individual stressors as well as both synergistic and antagonistic stressor interactions. We found that drying negatively affected periphyton assemblages, macroinvertebrate colonization, and leaf litter decomposition in shallow habitats. However, in deep habitats, drought-based increases in fish density caused trophic cascades that released algal communities from grazing pressures; while nutrient enrichment caused bottom-up cascades that influenced periphyton variables and crayfish growth rates. Finally, the combined effects of drought and nutrient enrichment interacted antagonistically to increase survival in longear sunfish; and stressors acted synergistically on grazers causing a trophic cascade that increased periphyton variables. Because stressors can directly and indirectly impact biota—and that the same stressor pairing can act differentially on various portions of the community simultaneously—our broad understanding of individual stressors might not adequately inform our knowledge of multi-stressor systems.

PLoS ONE↗

Estimating invertebrate response to changes in total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and specific conductance at sites where invertebrate data are unavailable

The purpose of this report is to describe a possible approach to estimate changes in invertebrate taxa richness at sites with known water-quality trends but no invertebrate data. In this study, data from 1,322 sites were used to describe invertebrate response to changes in total nitrogen, total phosphorus, or specific conductance, and to estimate changes in invertebrate taxa richness at 259 sites with reported water-quality trends but no invertebrate data. Sites were stratified using propensity score analysis to control for confounding factors (for example, climate, land use, land cover). Generalized linear models were developed to describe changes in invertebrate taxa richness along gradients of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and specific conductance values. The magnitude and direction of invertebrate response to gradients of water quality varied among parameters and strata, with changes in invertebrate taxa richness per natural log unit change in concentration ranging from –7 to +6. However, estimated changes in invertebrate taxa richness at sites with known water-quality trends were much less and did not exceed three taxa until changes in concentration were greater than 50 percent. Applying this approach provides (1) a first screening to identify where changes in invertebrate taxa richness are likely to occur and (2) the necessary groundwork to improve estimation of invertebrate response to trends in water quality where biological data are lacking.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Long-term climate patterns in Alaskan surface temperature and precipitation and their biological consequences

Mean monthly climate maps of Alaskan surface temperature and precipitation produced by the parameter-elevation regression on independent slopes model (PRISM) were analyzed. Alaska is divided into interior and coastal zones with consistent but different climatic variability separated by a transition region; it has maximum interannual variability but low long-term mean variability. Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)- and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-type events influence Alaska surface temperatures weakly (1-2/spl deg/C) statewide. PDO has a stronger influence than ENSO on precipitation but its influence is largely localized to coastal central Alaska. The strongest influence of Arctic oscillation (AO) occurs in northern and interior Alaskan precipitation. Four major ecosystems are defined. A major eco-transition zone occurs between the interior boreal forest and the coastal rainforest. Variability in insolation, surface temperature, precipitation, continentality, and seasonal changes in storm track direction explain the mapped ecosystems. Lack of westward expansion of the interior boreal forest into the western shrub tundra is influenced by the coastal marine boundary layer (enhanced cloud cover, reduced insolation, cooler surface and soil temperatures).

IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing↗

Vectors, hosts, and control measures for Zika virus in the Americas

We examine Zika virus (ZIKV) from an ecological perspective and with a focus on the Americas. We assess (1) the role of wildlife in ZIKV disease ecology, (2) how mosquito behavior and biology influence disease dynamics, and (3) how nontarget species and ecosystems may be impacted by vector control programs. Our review suggests that free-ranging, non-human primates may be involved in ZIKV transmission in the Old World; however, other wildlife species likely play a limited role in maintaining or transmitting ZIKV. In the Americas, a zoonotic cycle has not yet been definitively established. Understanding behaviors and habitat tolerances of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus , two ZIKV competent vectors in the Americas, will allow more accurate modeling of disease spread and facilitate targeted and effective control efforts. Vector control efforts may have direct and indirect impacts to wildlife, particularly invertebrate feeding species; however, strategies could be implemented to limit detrimental ecological effects.

EcoHealth↗

Nutrients and warming interact to force mountain lakes into unprecedented ecological state

While deposition of reactive nitrogen (N) in the 20th century has been strongly linked to changes in diatom assemblages in high-elevation lakes, pronounced and contemporaneous changes in other algal groups suggest additional drivers. We explored the origin and magnitude of changes in two mountain lakes from the end of the Little Ice Age at ca. 1850, to ca. 2010, using lake sediments. We found dramatic changes in algal community abundance and composition. While diatoms remain the most abundant photosynthetic organisms, concentrations of diatom pigments decreased while pigments representing chlorophytes increased 200-300% since ca. 1950 and total algal biomass more than doubled. Some algal changes began ca. 1900, but shifts in most sedimentary proxies accelerated ca. 1950 commensurate with many human-caused changes to the Earth system. In addition to N deposition, aeolian dust deposition may have contributed phosphorus. Strong increases in summer air and surface water temperatures since 1983 have direct and indirect consequences for high elevation ecosystems. Such warming could have directly enhanced nutrient use and primary production. Indirect consequences of warming include enhanced leaching of nutrients from geologic and cryosphere sources, particularly as glaciers ablate. While we infer causal mechanisms, changes in primary producer communities appear to be without historical precedent and are commensurate with the post-1950 acceleration of global change.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sci↗

The plant phenology monitoring design for the National Ecological Observatory Network

Phenology is an integrative science that comprises the study of recurring biological activities or events. In an era of rapidly changing climate, the relationship between the timing of those events and environmental cues such as temperature, snowmelt, water availability or day length are of particular interest. This article provides an overview of the plant phenology sampling which will be conducted by the U.S. National Ecological Observatory Network NEON, the resulting data, and the rationale behind the design. Trained technicians will conduct regular in situ observations of plant phenology at all terrestrial NEON sites for the 30-year life of the observatory. Standardized and coordinated data across the network of sites can be used to quantify the direction and magnitude of the relationships between phenology and environmental forcings, as well as the degree to which these relationships vary among sites, among species, among phenophases, and through time. Vegetation at NEON sites will also be monitored with tower-based cameras, satellite remote sensing and annual high-resolution airborne remote sensing. Ground-based measurements can be used to calibrate and improve satellite-derived phenometrics. NEON’s phenology monitoring design is complementary to existing phenology research efforts and citizen science initiatives throughout the world and will produce interoperable data. By collocating plant phenology observations with a suite of additional meteorological, biophysical and ecological measurements (e.g., climate, carbon flux, plant productivity, population dynamics of consumers) at 47 terrestrial sites, the NEON design will enable continentalscale inference about the status, trends, causes and ecological consequences of phenological change.

Ecosphere↗

Storage as a Metric of Catchment Comparison

The volume of water stored within a catchment, and its partitioning among groundwater, soil moisture, snowpack, vegetation, and surface water are the variables that ultimately characterize the state of the hydrologic system. Accordingly, storage may provide useful metrics for catchment comparison. Unfortunately, measuring and predicting the amount of water present in a catchment is seldom done; tracking the dynamics of these stores is even rarer. Storage moderates fluxes and exerts critical controls on a wide range of hydrologic and biologic functions of a catchment. While understanding runoff generation and other processes by which catchments release water will always be central to hydrologic science, it is equally essential to understand how catchments retain water. We have initiated a catchment comparison exercise to begin assessing the value of viewing catchments from the storage perspective. The exercise is based on existing data from five watersheds, no common experimental design, and no integrated modelling efforts. Rather, storage was estimated independently for each site. This briefing presents some initial results of the exercise, poses questions about the definitions and importance of storage and the storage perspective, and suggests future directions for ongoing activities.

Hydrological Processes↗

Behavioural responses of female lake trout Salvelinus namaycush to male chemical stimuli and prostaglandin F2α

Male olfactory cues may guide aggregation on spawning reefs, mate evaluation, and synchronized gamete release in lake trout Salvelinus namaycush, but a lack of information on the source and identity of the cues precludes direct tests of their function. Using a two-channel flume assay, we found female lake trout increased time spent in the channel treated with male-conditioned water, urine, and bile but not synthesized prostaglandin F2α. We suggest future efforts to characterize male olfactory cues focus on urine and postulate that bile acids contribute to its behavioural activity.

Journal of Fish Biology↗

California State Waters Map Series — Drakes Bay and vicinity, California

In 2007, the California Ocean Protection Council initiated the California Seafloor Mapping Program (CSMP), designed to create a comprehensive seafloor map of high-resolution bathymetry, marine benthic habitats, and geology within the 3-nautical-mile limit of California’s State Waters. The CSMP approach is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data, acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, and bottom-sediment sampling data. The map products display seafloor morphology and character, identify potential marine benthic habitats, and illustrate both the surficial seafloor geology and shallow (to about 100 m) subsurface geology. The Drakes Bay and Vicinity map area is located in northern California, about 30 km north of San Francisco and about 65 km south of Fort Ross. The map area is in the northern part of the Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary, and it includes all or parts of four California Marine Protected Areas. The largely undeveloped onshore part of the map area, which occupies much of the southern and southeastern parts of the Point Reyes peninsula, is used primarily for grazing, as well as recreation, as it is home to the Point Reyes National Seashore. The triangular Point Reyes peninsula, which lies completely west of the San Andreas Fault Zone, is bounded by the steep terrain of Inverness Ridge along its northeastern margin, Tomales Point at its northernmost tip, Point Reyes at its southwesternmost point, and Bolinas at its southern end. The landscape in between includes (from southeast to northwest) the sandy beaches along Drakes Bay, the estuaries of Drakes Estero and Estero de Limantour, and the long, windswept Point Reyes Beach, which is backed by an extensive dune field. The seafloor in the map area generally extends from the shoreline to water depths of about 40 to 50 m, except for the area south of the Point Reyes headland where water depths reach 60 to 70 m. This bathymetric gradient south and west of the Point Reyes headland is related to north-side-up motion along the Point Reyes Fault Zone. Except for the bathymetric gradient across the Point Reyes Fault Zone, the bedrock platform in the nearshore and inner shelf areas (50 to 60 m depth) is relatively flat (less than 1.0°) and is overlain by sand-sized to coarser grained sediment. Finer grained sediments are found in water depths greater than 60 m south of the Point Reyes headland, but they also extend into shallower (less than 40 m) water within Drakes Bay. Surficial and shallow sediments were deposited in the last about 21,000 years during the approximately 125-m sea-level rise that followed the last major lowstand associated with the Last Glacial Maximum, at which time the entire Drakes Bay and Vicinity map area was emergent and the shoreline was about 30 km south and west of the present-day shoreline. Tectonic influences that impact the shelf morphology and geology in the map area are related to local faulting, folding, uplift, and subsidence. Offshore of the Point Reyes headland, granitic basement rocks are offset vertically about 1.4 km along the Point Reyes Fault Zone; this uplift, combined with west-side-up offset on the San Andreas Fault Zone, has resulted in uplift of the Point Reyes peninsula and the adjacent shelf. Late Pleistocene uplift of marine terraces on the southern Point Reyes peninsula suggests active deformation of offshore structures west of the San Andreas Fault Zone. Pervasive stratal thinning within inferred uppermost Pliocene and Pleistocene deposits above the west strand of the Point Reyes Fault Zone suggests Quaternary active shortening of the curvilinear, northeast- to north-dipping Point Reyes Fault Zone. Lack of clear deformation in the uppermost Pleistocene and Holocene deposits suggests that activity along the Point Reyes Fault Zone has ceased or slowed since about 21,000 years ago. Seafloor habitats in the Drakes Bay and Vicinity map area range from unconsolidated continental-shelf sediment to hard substrate. Rocky-shelf outcrops and rubble are considered to be promising potential habitats for rockfish and lingcod, both of which are recreationally and commercially important species. Circulation over the continental shelf in the map area is dominated by the southward-flowing California Current, the eastern limb of the North Pacific Gyre. Associated upwelling brings cool, nutrient-rich waters to the surface, resulting in high biological productivity. The current flow generally is southeastward during the spring and summer; however, during the fall and winter, the otherwise persistent northwest winds are sometimes weak or absent, causing the California Current to move farther offshore and the Davidson Current, a weaker, northward-flowing countercurrent, to become active. Sediment transport in the map area largely is controlled by surface waves and tidal currents in the nearshore and, at depths greater than 20 to 30 m, by tidal and subtidal currents. In the map area, nearshore littoral drift of sand and coarse sediment is to the south, owing to the dominant west-northwest swell direction, and scour from large waves and tidal currents removes and redistributes sediment over large areas of the inner shelf. Tidal currents are particularly strong over the shelf in the map area, and they dominate the current regime in the nearshore. Further offshore, bottom currents generally flow to the northwest, distributing finer grained sediment accordingly.

California↗

Pushing precipitation to the extremes in distributed experiments: Recommendations for simulating wet and dry years

Intensification of the global hydrological cycle, ranging from larger individual precipitation events to more extreme multiyear droughts, has the potential to cause widespread alterations in ecosystem structure and function. With evidence that the incidence of extreme precipitation years (defined statistically from historical precipitation records) is increasing, there is a clear need to identify ecosystems that are most vulnerable to these changes and understand why some ecosystems are more sensitive to extremes than others. To date, opportunistic studies of naturally occurring extreme precipitation years, combined with results from a relatively small number of experiments, have provided limited mechanistic understanding of differences in ecosystem sensitivity, suggesting that new approaches are needed. Coordinated distributed experiments (CDEs) arrayed across multiple ecosystem types and focused on water can enhance our understanding of differential ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes, but there are many design challenges to overcome (e.g., cost, comparability, standardization). Here, we evaluate contemporary experimental approaches for manipulating precipitation under field conditions to inform the design of ‘Drought-Net’, a relatively low-cost CDE that simulates extreme precipitation years. A common method for imposing both dry and wet years is to alter each ambient precipitation event. We endorse this approach for imposing extreme precipitation years because it simultaneously alters other precipitation characteristics (i.e., event size) consistent with natural precipitation patterns. However, we do not advocate applying identical treatment levels at all sites – a common approach to standardization in CDEs. This is because precipitation variability varies >fivefold globally resulting in a wide range of ecosystem-specific thresholds for defining extreme precipitation years. For CDEs focused on precipitation extremes, treatments should be based on each site's past climatic characteristics. This approach, though not often used by ecologists, allows ecological responses to be directly compared across disparate ecosystems and climates, facilitating process-level understanding of ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes.

Global Change Biology↗

Changes in chemical occurrence, concentration, and bioactivity in the Colorado River before and after replacement of the Moab, Utah wastewater treatment plant

Long-term (2010–19) water-quality monitoring on the Colorado River downstream from Moab Utah indicated the persistent presence of Bioactive Chemicals (BC), such as pesticides and pharmaceuticals. This stream reach near Canyonlands National Park provides critical habitat for federally endangered species. The Moab wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) outfall discharges to the Colorado River and is the nearest potential point-source to this reach. The original WWTP was replaced in 2018. In 2016–19, a study was completed to determine if the new plant reduced BC input to the Colorado River at, and downstream from, the outfall. Water samples were collected before and after the plant replacement at sites upstream and downstream from the outfall. Samples were analyzed for as many as 243 pesticides, 109 pharmaceuticals, 20 hormones, 51 wastewater indicator chemicals, 20 metals, and 8 nutrients. BC concentrations, hazard quotients (HQs), and exposure activity ratios (EARs) were used to identify and prioritize contaminants for their potential to have adverse biological effects on the health of native and endangered wildlife. There were 22 BC with HQs >1, mostly metals and hormones; and 23 BC with EARs >0.1, mostly hormones and pharmaceuticals. Most high HQs or EARs were associated with samples collected at the WWTP outfall site prior to its replacement. Discharge from the new plant had reduced concentrations of nutrients, hormones, pharmaceuticals, and other BC. For example, all 16 of the hormones detected at the WWTP outfall site had maximum concentrations in samples collected prior to the WWTP replacement. The WWTP replacement had less effect on instream concentrations of metals and pesticides, BC whose sources are less directly tied to domestic wastewater. Study results indicate that improved WWTP technology can create substantial reductions in concentrations of non-regulated BC such as pharmaceuticals, in addition to regulated contaminants such as nutrients.

Utah↗

Potential for nonenzymatic reduction of Fe(III) via electron shuttling in subsurface sediments

The potential for various substances to serve as electron shuttles between Fe(III)-reducing microorganisms and insoluble Fe(III) oxides in aquifer sediments was evaluated in order to determine whether abiological mechanisms might play a role in the apparent microbial reduction of Fe(III) in subsurface sediments. Humic substances (humics) and the humics analogue, anthraquinone-2,6-disulfonate (AQDS), which were previously found to stimulate microbial reduction of synthetic poorly crystalline Fe(III) oxide under laboratory conditions, were found to also stimulate the reduction of aquifer Fe(III) oxides by indigenous microorganisms. Electron shuttling via biological reduction of U(VI) or S° followed by abiological reduction of Fe(III) by U(IV) or sulfide enhanced the reduction of synthetic Fe(III) oxide in cell suspensions, but these potential electron shuttles did not stimulate Fe(III) reduction when they were added to aquifer sediments. These results emphasize the importance of evaluating potential mechanisms for Fe(III) reduction with natural Fe(III) oxides, under environmentally relevant conditions. The finding that humics and other extracellular quinones can serve as electron shuttles to the Fe(III) oxides found in subsurface environments suggests that some Fe(III) reduction which was previously considered to be the result of direct enzymatic reduction of Fe(III) oxides may instead result from abiotic reduction of Fe(III) by microbially reduced humics or other microbially generated hydroquinones.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Effects of elevated water temperature on physiological responses in adult freshwater mussels

Freshwater mussels (order Unionoida) face multiple environmental stressors, which pose serious conservation challenges to this diverse assemblage of aquatic invertebrates. Of these stressors, elevated water temperature from global climate change and other anthropogenic sources may be the most ubiquitous and could be placing many mussel populations dangerously close to their thermal maxima. We tested the hypothesis that elevated water temperatures (20, 25, 30 and 35 °C) adversely affected physiological responses in adults of four North American species of mussels ( Amblema plicata , Elliptio complanata, Fusconaia flava and Lampsilis cardium) in 21-d laboratory tests. Oxygen consumption rates were directly affected by temperature in E. complanata and L. cardium , and indirectly affected by temperature in A. plicata and F. flava . Rates of O 2 consumption were generally positively correlated with water temperature. Ammonium excretion rates varied significantly with temperature in E. complanata and generally increased with temperature. The amount of O 2 consumed relative to nitrogen excreted (O : N ratio), varied significantly with temperature in A. plicata , E. complanata and F. flava . The tissue condition index varied among temperatures and species. These data suggest that elevated temperatures can alter metabolic rates in native mussels and may decrease the amount of energy that is available for key biological processes, such as survival, growth and reproduction.

Freshwater Biology↗

Effects of urbanization on the distribution and abundance of amphibians and invasive species in southern California streams

Urbanization negatively affects natural ecosystems in many ways, and aquatic systems in particular. Urbanization is also cited as one of the potential contributors to recent dramatic declines in amphibian populations. From 2000 to 2002 we determined the distribution and abundance of native amphibians and exotic predators and characterized stream habitat and invertebratecommunities in 35 streams in an urbanized landscape north of Los Angeles (U.S.A.). We measured watershed development as the percentage of area within each watershed occupied by urban land uses. Streams in more developed watersheds often had exotic crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) and fish, and had fewer native species such as California newts (Taricha torosa) and California treefrogs (Hyla cadaverina). These effects seemed particularly evident above 8% development, a result coincident with other urban stream studies that show negative impacts beginning at 10-15% urbanization. For Pacific treefrogs (H. regilla), the most widespread native amphibian, abundance was lower in the presence of exotic crayfish, although direct urbanization effects were not found. Benthic macroinvertebrate communities were also less diverse in urban streams, especially for sensitive species. Faunal community changes in urban streams may be related to changes in physical stream habitat, such as fewer pool and more run habitats and increased water depth and flow, leading to more permanent streams. Variation in stream permanence was particularly evident in 2002, a dry year when many natural streams were dry but urban streams were relatively unchanged. Urbanization has significantly altered stream habitat in this region and may enhance invasion by exotic species and negatively affect diversity and abundance of native amphibians. ??2005 Society for Conservation Biology.

Conservation Biology↗

Biological Evaluations of an Off-Stream Channel, Horizontal Flat-Plate Fish Screen-The Farmers Screen

Screens are commonly installed at water diversion sites to reduce entrainment of fish. Recently, the Farmers Irrigation District in Hood River, Oregon, developed a new flat-plate screen design that offers passive operation and may result in reduced operation and installation costs to irrigators. To evaluate the performance (its biological effect on fish) of this type of screen, two size classes of juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kistuch) were released over a small version of this screen in the field-the Herman Creek screen. The performance of the screen was evaluated over a range of inflow [0.02 to 0.42 m3/s (cubic meters per second)] and diversion flows (0.02 to 0.34 m3/s) at different weir wall heights. The mean approach velocities for the screen ranged from 0 to 5 cm/s (centimeters per second) and mean sweeping velocities ranged from 36 to 178 cm/s. Water depths over the screen surface ranged from 1 to 25 centimeters and were directly related to weir wall height and inflow. Passage of juvenile coho salmon over the screen under a variety of hydraulic conditions did not severely injure them or cause delayed mortality. For all fish, the mean percentage of body surface area that was injured after passage over the screen ranged from about 0.4 to 3.0%. This occurred even though many fish contacted the screen surface during passage. No fish were observed becoming impinged on the screen surface (greater than 1 second contact with the screen). When operated within its design criteria (diversion flows of about 0.28 m3/s), the screen provided safe and effective downstream passage of juvenile salmonids under a variety of hydraulic conditions. However, we do not recommend operating the screen at inflows less than 0.14 m3/s (5 ft3/s) because water depth can get quite shallow and the screen can completely dewater, particularly at very low flows.

Open-File Report↗

Nest-site biology of the California condor

A study of 72 historical and recent nests of the California Condor (Gymnogyps californianus) has revealed considerable variability in nest-site characteristics. This paper primarily summarizes the data on nest elevations and dimensions, entrance orientations, nest longevity and re-use, vulnerability of sites to natural enemies, and use of sites by other species. Although all known nests have been natural cavities, some have been little more than overhung ledges on cliffs, while others have been deep, dark caves with nest chambers completely concealed from the outside. Two sites have been cavities in giant sequoias (Sequoiadendron giganteum). Contrary to previous assumptions, condors do modify the characteristics of their nest sites significantly and commonly construct substrates of coarse gravel on which to rest their eggs. Many nests have been completely accessible to terrestrial predators, many have been poorly protected from avian predators, and some have had structural flaws leading directly to nesting failure. The use of suboptimal sites has not been clearly related to a scarcity of better quality sites.

Condor↗

Strategic monitoring to minimize misclassification errors from conservation status assessments

Classifying species into risk categories is a ubiquitous process in conservation decision-making affecting regulatory procedures, conservation actions, and guiding resource allocation at global, national, and regional scales. However, monitoring programs often do not provide data required for accurate species classification decisions. Misclassification can lead to otherwise preventable species extinctions, undue regulatory burden, poor allocation of limited conservation resources, and can undermine species conservation legislation. We developed a framework that evaluates monitoring designs based on the ability to correctly inform a species classification decision, where minimizing the risk of misclassification is the central objective. We further evaluated monitoring designs by calculating the expected value of information and explored the relationship between statistical power to detect trends and misclassification. Our measure of misclassification risk, which can be tailored to the decision context, clarified the costs of over- and under-protection. High power to detect trends often corresponded to accurate species classification decisions. However, in several scenarios power to detect trends was low but the ability to correctly inform the classification decision was high. The value of information generally increased with monitoring intensity and quantified the tradeoffs between spatial and temporal replication. Our framework allows managers to assess monitoring program performance with direct implications for conservation decision-making. Our framework affords practitioners an opportunity to evaluate the effectiveness of monitoring programs a priori focusing on improving conservation decisions. We demonstrate that prioritizing monitoring to minimize misclassification errors can improve monitoring efficiency and conservation decision-making with considerable practical applications and benefits for species conservation.

Biological Conservation↗

Intraspecific niche models for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) suggest potential variability in population-level response to climate change

Unique responses to climate change can occur across intraspecific levels, resulting in individualistic adaptation or movement patterns among populations within a given species. Thus, the need to model potential responses among genetically distinct populations within a species is increasingly recognized. However, predictive models of future distributions are regularly fit at the species level, often because intraspecific variation is unknown or is identified only within limited sample locations. In this study, we considered the role of intraspecific variation to shape the geographic distribution of ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa ), an ecologically and economically important tree species in North America. Morphological and genetic variation across the distribution of ponderosa pine suggest the need to model intraspecific populations: the two varieties (var. ponderosa and var. scopulorum ) and several haplotype groups within each variety have been shown to occupy unique climatic niches, suggesting populations have distinct evolutionary lineages adapted to different environmental conditions. We utilized a recently-available, geographically-widespread dataset of intraspecific variation (haplotypes) for ponderosa pine and a recently-devised lineage distance modeling approach to derive additional, likely intraspecific occurrence locations. We confirmed the relative uniqueness of each haplotype-climate relationship using a niche-overlap analysis, and developed ecological niche models (ENMs) to project the distribution for two varieties and eight haplotypes under future climate forecasts. Future projections of haplotype niche distributions generally revealed greater potential range loss than predicted for the varieties. This difference may reflect intraspecific responses of distinct evolutionary lineages. However, directional trends are generally consistent across intraspecific levels, and include a loss of distributional area and an upward shift in elevation. Our results demonstrate the utility in modeling intraspecific response to changing climate and they inform management and conservation strategies, by identifying haplotypes and geographic areas that may be most at risk, or most secure, under projected climate change.

Systematic Biology↗